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พุธ, เมษายน 1, 2020

The EUR has weathered the recent storm reasonably well. Looking ahead, how EUR trades in the coming months could be closely linked with political deve

The EUR has weathered the recent storm reasonably well. Looking ahead, how EUR trades in the coming months could be closely linked with political developments in the Eurozone, economists at Rabobank report. Key quotes “While the Eurozone’s current account surplus may afford the EUR some protection, it is unlikely that investors have much of stomach for another long stretch of tensions within the Eurozone.”   “It is our view that broad-based USD strength will persist through this crisis and until green short of recovery become evident in parts of the global economy.”   “How well the EUR performs vs the USD could be driven by domestic politics and whether or not the fiscal cracks in the Eurozone are again laid bare.  We see risk of a dip to EUR/USD 1.05 on a 3-month view.”  

Gold prices came under pressure once again yesterday. CTA buying into a relatively illiquid market removed some bullish support, strategists at TD Sec

Gold prices came under pressure once again yesterday. CTA buying into a relatively illiquid market removed some bullish support, strategists at TD Securities report. Key quotes “CTAs could be set to modestly lighten their length once again should gold prices close below $1572/ oz on the day.” “We highlight fading upside in silver could be beneficial as prolonged weakness in industrial demand should keep silver's recovery under wraps for now. With prices below our trend reversal thresholds, we anticipate firming downside momentum.”  “The conclusion of CTA buying in palladium could open up additional downside, but as South African miners declared a force majeure which forced operations to close, which should offer PGM prices some support.”  

The USD/CAD pair trimmed a part of its daily gains and quickly retreated over 100 pips during the early North-American session. The pair stalled its s

USD/CAD failed to capitalize on the early strong gains to the 1.4270 region.Bulls shrugged off a strong pickup in the USD demand, weaker oil prices.Concerns over increasing coronavirus cases in the US seemed to cap gains.The USD/CAD pair trimmed a part of its daily gains and quickly retreated over 100 pips during the early North-American session. The pair stalled its strong intraday positive momentum and witnessed a dramatic turnaround from 200-hour SMA resistance near the 1.4270 region. The pullback shrugged off a combination of supporting factors, including a strong bid tone surrounding the US dollar and weaker crude oil prices. As investors looked past the Fed's latest move to allow foreign central banks to temporarily exchange their holdings of the US Treasuries for overnight dollar loans, the greenback regained traction and was seen as one of the key factors that assisted the pair to catch some fresh bids on Wednesday. The already stronger sentiment surrounding the buck got an additional boost following the release of stronger-than-expected US macro data – ADP report on private-sector employment and ISM Manufacturing PMI print for the month of March. Data released this Wednesday showed that the US private-sector employment declined by 27K in March as compared to consensus estimates pointing to a fall of 150K. Adding to this, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI edged down to 49.1 in March (45.0 expected) from 50.1 previous. On the other hand, the commodity-linked currency – the loonie – remained depressed in the wake of some renewed weakness in crude oil prices and was further weighed down by the Markit PMI, which showed a record downturn in the Canadian manufacturing output during March. Bulls, however, seemed rather unimpressed by the combination of supporting factors, rather opted to lighten their positions amid persistent worries over the ever-increasing number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States. Technical levels to watch  
The Institue for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing PMI in March fell to 49.1 from 50.1 in February to reveal a contraction at a modest pace in the sector's economic activity. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 45.  

United States ISM Manufacturing PMI registered at 49.1 above expectations (45) in March

United States ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid came in at 37.4 below forecasts (41.2) in March

United States Construction Spending (MoM) came in at -1.3% below forecasts (0.6%) in February

United States ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index came in at 42.2, below expectations (50.2) in March

United States ISM Manufacturing Employment Index above forecasts (43.6) in March: Actual (43.8)

The Polish record long period of uninterrupted economic expansion since the collapse of communism is set come to an end this year due to a major deman

The Polish record long period of uninterrupted economic expansion since the collapse of communism is set come to an end this year due to a major demand and supply shock caused by the coronavirus, economists at Rabobank report. EUR/PLN trades at 4.5862. Key quotes “It would require a very optimistic assumption of economic activity coming back to normal relatively quickly, i.e. within next 2-3 months for Poland to avoid a recession. We expect a 2% contraction this year.” “For the first time in its history the NBP will use unconventional tools to tackle the economic crisis. (...) We are far more concerned how investors will react if the NBP uses QE for longer than required.” “EUR/PLN has entered a period of consolidation trading above the 4.50 level over the past few sessions. We prefer to be positioned for another leg higher in the coming weeks towards 4.80.” “We anticipate EUR/PLN to peak between 4.80-5.00 in the first half of the year before retracing at least part of that move in H2.”  

The IHS Markit's Manufacturing PMI for the US fell to 48.5 in March from 50.7 in February. This reading came in worse than the previous estimate and t

Markit Manufacturing PMI in US falls further in March's final reading.Major equity indexes continue to trade deep in the red after the data.The IHS Markit's Manufacturing PMI for the US fell to 48.5 in March from 50.7 in February. This reading came in worse than the previous estimate and the market expectation of 49.2. Commenting on the data, "the final PMI data for March are even worse than the initial flash estimate, with manufacturing output slumping to the greatest extent since the height of the global financial crisis in 2009," noted Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at the IHS Markit. "Growing numbers of company closures and lockdowns as the nation fights the COVID-19 outbreak mean business levels have collapsed." Market reaction  Wall Street's main indexes continue to trade with heavy losses on Wednesday. As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were both erasing more than 3% on a daily basis.

USD/CNH is expected to return to the consolidative theme on a breakdown of the 7.0450 level, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour vie

USD/CNH is expected to return to the consolidative theme on a breakdown of the 7.0450 level, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We expected USD to trade between 7.0950 and 7.1350 yesterday. However, it slipped to a low of 7.0811 before ending the day on a soft note at 7.0933. Downward momentum has improved somewhat and this could lead to a dip towards 7.0650. For today, the next support at 7.0450 is unlikely to come into the picture. Resistance is at 7.0980 followed by 7.1100.” Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to the update from Monday (30 Mar). As highlighted, the chance for USD to break above 7.1700 has diminished. However, only a breach of 7.0450 (‘strong support’ level previously at 7.0350) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased. Looking ahead, a break of 7.0450 would suggest USD could spend trade in a broad range for a period.”

Following the example of the ECB for the significant institutions, the Bank of Italy has decided to recommend to banks not to distribute or commit dis

Following the example of the ECB for the significant institutions, the Bank of Italy has decided to recommend to banks not to distribute or commit distributing dividends at least until 1 October 20202, Thomas Humblot from BNP Paribas briefs. Key quotes “Share buy-backs will have to be restricted and less significant institutions in Italy will have to adopt ‘prudent and farsighted’ variable-remuneration policies.”  “The five largest Italian banking groups are likely to mobilize EUR 4.8 billion of additional common equity Tier 1 in 2019, representing 4.1% of its current outstanding amount.”  “These supplementary reserves will absorb part of the increase in the cost of risk in 2020 and will limit the decrease in regulatory capital, which has increased by 61% since 2008.”  

The S&P 500 is pressuring the 2500 support as the market is easing from 11-day’s highs. A break below the above-mentioned support can lead to further weakness

S&P 500 is pressuring the 2500 support level.Further weakness can be on the cards with 2400 and 2300 on the bears’radar.  S&P 500 daily chart   The S&P 500 is pressuring the 2500 support as the market is easing from 11-day’s highs. A break below the above-mentioned support can lead to further weakness towards the 2400 and 2300 levels on the way down. Resistance can emerge near 2600 level initially.      Additional key levels   

United States Markit Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.5 below forecasts (49.2) in March

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the greenback vs. a bundle of its main rivals, is leaving behind Tuesday’s pullback and resumes the upside to

DXY resumes the upside and retargets 100.00.The White House estimates 100K-240K coronavirus deaths.US ADP report missed estimates at -27K jobs in March.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the greenback vs. a bundle of its main rivals, is leaving behind Tuesday’s pullback and resumes the upside to the 99.80 region, where it met some resistance for the time being. US Dollar Index bid as risk-on trade dissipates The index has started the month/quarter on a firm note, managing to reverse Tuesday’s decline and now setting sails to the key resistance at 100.00 the figure amidst a mild bias towards the risk aversion. In addition, the increasing selling bias in the euro is also lending extra wings to the recovery in the dollar, following mixed results from PMIs and discouraging news stemming from the coronavirus front. In the US data space, the ADP reported a 27K drop in the job creation within the US private sector ahead of Friday’s Non-farm Payrolls during the same period. What to look for around USD DXY has regained the upper hand so far this week after bottoming out in the 98.30 region in past sessions. In addition, the greenback has so far managed to keep business above the key 200-day SMA and therefore maintaining the constructive outlook while re-targeting the triple-digit barrier. However, speculation of extra stimulus carries the potential to undermine the recovery in the buck and thus leaving the upside somewhat limited, all against the backdrop of unremitting concerns around the fallout of the coronavirus. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the index is gaining 0.63% at 99.58 and a breakout of 99.95 (weekly high Mar.31) would aim for 100.49 (78.6% Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 drop) and then 102.99 (2020 high Mar.20). On the other hand, the next support emerges at 98.27 (weekly low Mar.27) seconded by 98.03 (200-day SMA) and then 97.87 (61.8% Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 drop).

The economic activity in Canada's manufacturing sector contracted at a strong pace in March with the Markit Manufacturing PMI slumping to 46.1 from 51

PMI report shows manufacturing activity in Canada contracted in March.USD/CAD pair trades below 1.4200, stays in the positive territory. The economic activity in Canada's manufacturing sector contracted at a strong pace in March with the Markit Manufacturing PMI slumping to 46.1 from 51.8 in February. Commenting on the data, "Canadian manufacturers reported the steepest downturns in production, new orders and employment for at least nine-and-a-half years in March," noted Tim Moore, Economics Director at the IHS Markit. "Shrinking customer demand was almost exclusively attributed to production stoppages at home and abroad amid emergency public health measures to halt the COVID-19 pandemic." Market reaction The USD/CAD pulled away from session highs after this data and was last seen trading at 1.4165, still adding 0.75% on the day.

The EUR/GBP cross to fresh three-week lows in the last hour, with bears now looking to extend the slide further below the 0.8800 round-figure mark. Fo

Persistent selling around the Euro exerted some fresh pressure on the EUR/GBP cross.The British pound seemed rather unaffected by a big jump in the UK coronavirus deaths.The technical set-up favours bearish traders and supports prospects for a further decline.The EUR/GBP cross to fresh three-week lows in the last hour, with bears now looking to extend the slide further below the 0.8800 round-figure mark. Following the previous session's good two-way price action, the cross met with some fresh supply on Wednesday and extended its recent sharp pullback from the 0.9500 psychological mark, or over 11-year tops set on March 19. The downtick was sponsored by the prevailing selling bias surrounding the shared currency, all against the backdrop of mounting fears over the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and the reemergence of the disinflationary trend. On the other hand, the British pound seemed rather unaffected by the fact that Fitch lowered its UK long-term issuer default ratings to AA- from AA and a big jump in the UK coronavirus deaths, rising to 2352 on Wednesday from 1789 yesterday. Given last week's sustained break through an important horizontal support near the key 0.90 psychological mark, the pair's ongoing slide to the lowest level since March 12 could further be attributed to some follow-through technical selling. A subsequent weakness below the 0.8800 mark will reinforce the near-term bearish bias and set the stage for an extension of the pair's depreciating move, possibly towards testing the next major support near the 0.8720-15 horizontal zone. Technical levels to watch  

Wall Street's main indexes opened sharply lower on the first day of the second quarter as investors remain focused on the surging number of coronaviru

Flight to safety dominates financial markets on Wednesday.Fİnancial shares suffer heavy losses amid plummeting Treasury bond yields.Wall Street's main indexes opened sharply lower on the first day of the second quarter as investors remain focused on the surging number of coronavirus infections and fatalities worldwide.  Flight to safety As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 3.6% on the day while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were erasing 3.8% and 2.62%, respectively. Reflecting the risk-off atmosphere, the CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street's fear gauge, is up 10.25% in the early trade. Among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors, the Real Estate Index is erasing 6% as the worst performer. Moreover, the Financials Index is down 5% on the day pressured by a more-than-10% decline in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield. 

In the last four decades, crude oil price movement in the half-year before a recession shows little indication the commodity anticipated the coming sl

In the last four decades, crude oil price movement in the half-year before a recession shows little indication the commodity anticipated the coming slowdown, according to FXStreet’s analyst Joseph Trevisani. Key quotes “Of the five recessions the US has experienced going back to 1980, two saw price increases in the half-year prior to the onset and three witnessed declines.” “In three of the above five recessions 1981-82, 2001 and 2007-2009 prices at the finish of the recession were lower than at the start and in 1980 and 1990-1991 they ended higher.” “The global spread of the virus and the domestic economic closures are expected to wreck demand for crude by an extraordinary amount.  But the plunge in crude oil since January is coincident to the universally anticipated global recession not its forerunner.”  

"President Trump is very interested in infrastructure and with interest rates low, that's something very import for him," US Treasury Secretary Mnuchi

"President Trump is very interested in infrastructure and with interest rates low, that's something very import for him," US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin told CNBC on Wednesday and added that they are having ongoing talks on the matter. "It's a great time now to invest in infrastructure," Mnuchin argued and reiterated that they are focused on executing the aid plan. "We want to protect small businesses, if small business program's $350 billion runs out, that would be on top his list to go to Congress for." Market reaction Wall Street's main indexes started the day deep in the negative territory despite these comments. As of writing, both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were erasing 3.7% on the day.

Canada Markit Manufacturing PMI came in at 46.1 below forecasts (53.3) in March

Prices of the West Texas Intermediate are showing some signs of life above the key $20.00 mark per barrel on Wednesday. WTI remains fragile, looks to

Prices of the WTI gains some poise above the $20.00 mark.A “ceasefire” between Russia and Saudi Arabia looks unlikely.The EIA will publish its weekly report on US crude oil supplies later.Prices of the West Texas Intermediate are showing some signs of life above the key $20.00 mark per barrel on Wednesday. WTI remains fragile, looks to data Following five consecutive daily pullbacks and the worst quarter/month performance in history, the barrel of WTI has started April on a positive footing above the key $20.00 mark. However, sentiment among traders remain fragile to say the least against the backdrop of the unabated Russia-Saudi Arabia price war and very pessimistic prospects for the oil demand on the back of the COVID-19 fallout. Further bad news came after the US government predicted between 100K and 240K coronavirus deaths in the country. In the docket, a nearly 10.5M build in US crude oil supplies reported by the API late on Tuesday also lends support to the negative view surrounding oil. Later in the session, the DoE will publish its official weekly variation of oil stockpiles. What to look for around WTI Crude oil prices remain under unabated pressure despite the ongoing rebound from new 18-year lows near $19.00 per barrel recorded at the beginning of the week. The broader picture, however, remains unchanged and dominated by supply and demand concerns stemming from the Russia-Saudi Arabia price war and the impact on the industry of the coronavirus. Also adding to oversupply concerns, there is still the palpable possibility that Saudi Arabia could carry on with its plans to increase oil exports by more than 10M bpd in May. A potential relief to this low-lower-prices-scenario could come in the form of a US intervention, which is expected to morph into some sort of agreement between the US, Russia, Saudi Arabia and some other countries, although this is regarded as quite a long shot at the moment.  WTI significant levels At the moment the barrel of WTI is gaining 1.75% at $20.45 and a breach of $19.29 (2020 low Mar.30) would expose $17.12 (monthly low November 2001) and finally $10.65 (monthly low December 1998). On the upside, the next resistance aligns at $25.20 (weekly high Mar.25) followed by $28.46 (high Mar.20) and then $28.75 (21-day SMA).

The latest official data from the UK showed that the total number of confirmed coronavirus infections rose to 29,474 as of Wednesday morning from 25,1

The latest official data from the UK showed that the total number of confirmed coronavirus infections rose to 29,474 as of Wednesday morning from 25,150 on Tuesday and the death toll increased to 2,352 from 1,789. Market reaction The UK's FTSE 100 extended its daily decline and was last seen erasing 3.8% on the day. Meanwhile, the British pound trades mixed against its major rivals on Wednesday. As of writing, the GBP/USD pair was down 0.15% on the day at 1.2400 and the EUR/GBP pair was erasing 0.75% at 0.8810.

The EUR/USD pair continues to trade near the bottom of its daily trading range in the early American session on Wednesday. As of writing, the pair was

ADP Employment Change in US fell to -27,000 in March.US Dollar Index continues to trade in tight range above 99.50.ISM report is expected to show contraction in US manufacturing activity.The EUR/USD pair continues to trade near the bottom of its daily trading range in the early American session on Wednesday. As of writing, the pair was down 0.9% on the day at 1.0930. USD stays strong after ADP's National Employment Report The data published by the ADP on Wednesday revealed that the employment in the US' private sector declined by 27,000 in March. However, ADP co-head Ahu Yildirmaz noted in the press release that this report does not reflect the full impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the labour market as it uses data collected through March 12th. Nevertheless, the US Dollar Index largely ignored this data and continues to move sideways near 99.70 to make it difficult for the pair to stage a rebound. Later in the session, the ISM will release the closely-watched Manufacturing PMI report for March. Analysts expect the data to reveal a contraction in the activity with the PMI dropping to 45 from 50.1 in February.  Earlier in the day, the final reading of the IHS Markit's Manufacturing PMI for the eurozone came in at 47.8 in March. Commenting on this data, "the concern is that we are still some way off peak-decline for manufacturing," said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at the IHS Markit. "Besides the hit to output from many factories simply closing their doors, the coming weeks will likely see both business and consumer spending on goods decline markedly as measures to contain the coronavirus result in dramatically reduced orders at those factories still operating." Technical levels to watch for  

EUR/USD is bearish in the short-term and a steeper decline is expected once below 1.0890, FXStreet’s Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik reports. Key quote

EUR/USD is bearish in the short-term and a steeper decline is expected once below 1.0890, FXStreet’s Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik reports. Key quotes “The EUR/USD pair is technically bearish, according to the 4-hour chart, as it´s now developing below all of its moving averages, while technical indicators head south within negative levels.”  “The next Fibonacci support comes at 1.0890, with a break below it opening doors for a steeper decline.” “Support levels: 1.0890 1.0850 Resistance levels: 1.0960 1.1000”

ADP's private-sector jobs report has shown a loss of only 27,000 jobs in March. The US dollar has room to rise on safe-haven flows, in the opinion of

ADP's private-sector jobs report has shown a loss of only 27,000 jobs in March. The US dollar has room to rise on safe-haven flows, in the opinion of FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam. Key quotes “Only 27,000 private-sector jobs were lost in March according to ADP, much better than shedding 150,000 that was on the cards. “Markets are relatively quiet in the aftermath of the release, with stock futures on the back foot, yet without change. The US dollar is ahead of its peers, but little changed in comparison to earlier in the day.” “The greenback's advance may extend later on. Worsening data, including from jobless claims which may be even higher than last week's 3.283 million, may send investors to the safety of the dollar.”  

Brazil HSBC PMI Manufacturing below expectations (51.7) in March: Actual (48.4)

The AUD/USD pair maintained its offered tone through the early North-American session and refreshed daily lows, around mid-0.6000s in the last hour. T

AUD/USD remained depressed for the second straight day and retreated further from two-week tops.Concerns over the coronavirus crisis boosted the USD’s safe-haven status and exerted some pressure.Stronger-than-expected US ADP report remained supportive of the strong bid tone around the buck.The AUD/USD pair maintained its offered tone through the early North-American session and refreshed daily lows, around mid-0.6000s in the last hour. The pair extended the previous session's intraday pullback from two-week tops – levels just above the 0.6200 round-figure mark – witnessed some selling for the second straight session on Tuesday amid resurgent US dollar demand. As investors braced for an imminent global recession, a fresh wave of the global risk-aversion trade provided a strong boost to the greenback's status as the global reserve currency and was seen as a key factor exerting pressure on the major. Despite the recent efforts by major central banks and governments across the world, market participants remained concerns that ever-increasing number of confirmed coronavirus cases and tighter lockdowns will take its toll on the global economy. The strong bid tone surrounding the buck was further supported by stronger than expected ADP report, which showed that the number of people employed in the private sector declined by 27K in March as compared to consensus estimates pointing to a fall of 150K. From a technical perspective, the pair seems to have confirmed a bearish break through an important confluence support near the 0.6100 area and hence, remains vulnerable to extend the decline further towards challenging the key 0.60 psychological mark. Technical levels to watch  

South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales: 33.545 (March) vs previous 43.485

After the sharp selloff to 2009 lows, XAG/USD bounced as the Fed announced no limit to its Quantitative Easing (QE) to counter the coronavirus crisis.

XAG/USD bounced from 2020 lows as the Federal Reserve announces its largest stimulus package in history, last week.XAG/USD is consolidating the advance in a very tight trading range. The level to beat for bulls is the 15.00 resistance.  Silver daily chart   After the sharp selloff to 2009 lows, XAG/USD bounced as the Fed announced no limit to its Quantitative Easing (QE) to counter the coronavirus crisis.      Silver four-hour chart    XAG/USD is consolidating the bull-run of the last trading sessions while trading close to the 14.00 support level and the 50/100 SMA on the four-hour chart as bulls need an extension up above the 15.00 figure en route to the 15.50 and 16.60 level while support can be found near the 14.00, 13.50 and 13.00 level.    Resistance: 15.00, 15.50, 16.60Support: 14.00, 13.50, 13.00    Additional key levels  

Gold is consolidating the bullish spike originating from the 2020 lows while trading now below the 50 DMA (daily simple moving average).

XAU/USD is correcting down after the massive bull-run seen last week.XAU/USD is set to remain under pressure below the 1600 mark.  XAU/USD daily chart   Gold is consolidating the bullish spike originating from the 2020 lows while trading now below the 50 DMA (daily simple moving average).    XAU/USD four-hour chart   XAU/USD is trading below the 1600 level and the 50/200 SMAs suggesting a negative bias in the medium term as sellers want a break below the 1560 support level en route towards 1520 and potentially to 1450 if the bears gather enough steam. Resistance can be expected near 1600, 1615 and 1640 levels.    Additional key levels  

The USD/JPY pair extended its sideways consolidative price action and remained confined in a narrow trading band around mid-107.00s post-US ADP report

USD/JPY lacked any firm direction and seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses.The JPY benefitted from reviving demand for safe-haven assets amid coronavirus crisis.The USD maintained its strong bid tone following the release of stronger ADP report.The USD/JPY pair extended its sideways consolidative price action and remained confined in a narrow trading band around mid-107.00s post-US ADP report. A combination of diverging forces failed to provide any meaningful impetus to the major and led to a subdued/range-bound trading through the early North-American session on Wednesday. Persistent worries over the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic triggered a fresh wave of the global risk-aversion trade and underpinned the Japanese yen's perceived safe-haven demand. The risk-off mood was further reinforced by a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields, albeit the negative factor, to a larger extent, was offset by a strong buying interest around the US dollar. The greenback maintained its strong bid tone following the release of ADP report, which showed that private-sector employment decreased by 27K in March as against 150K expected. Meanwhile, the market reaction turned out to be rather muted as the focus remains on developments surrounding the coronavirus saga, which remains a key driver of the broader risk sentiment. Technical levels to watch  

United States ADP Employment Change above expectations (-150K) in March: Actual (-27K)

Employment Change in the US private sector was -27,000 in March following February's increase of 179,000 (revised from) 183,000, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported on Wednesday. This reading came in much better than the market expectation for a decline of 150,000.  

Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) came in at -0.4%, above forecasts (-2.5%) in February

Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) registered at 0.5% above expectations (-0.4%) in February

The bull trend is intact as the spot remains well supported above the 74.00 level on broad-based USD strength. Bulls should be looking for a breakout above th

The US dollar is consolidating gains just above the 75.00 figure. The level to beat for bulls is the 75.70 level.     USD/INR daily chart   The bull trend is intact as the spot remains well supported above the 74.00 level on broad-based USD strength. Bulls should be looking for a breakout above the 75.70 level which could introduce scope to the 76.00 and 77.00 figures while support should be expected near 75.00, 74.40 and 73.50 price levels on any pullback down.   Additional key levels  

The USD/CAD pair fluctuated in a relatively wide range on Tuesday amid month-end flows and closed the day in the negative territory. With the greenbac

US Dollar Index consolidates gains above 99.50 ahead of key data.Crude oil rebounds modestly on Wednesday, WTI closes in on $51.Manufacturing PMI data from US and Canada will be released later in the day.The USD/CAD pair fluctuated in a relatively wide range on Tuesday amid month-end flows and closed the day in the negative territory. With the greenback gathering strength as a safe-haven in the risk-averse market atmosphere, the pair gained traction and climbed to a daily high of 1.4669. As of writing, the pair was up 1.4% on the day at 1.4258. Although a Kremlin spokesman noted that Russia was not holding talks with Saudi Arabia to balance the oil market at the moment, he added that negotiations could be set up in a timely manner if necessary. After erasing more than 50% in March, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate is posting recovery gains on Wednesday to help the CAD limits its losses for the time being. At the moment, the WTI is up 2.63% on the day at $20.60. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index easily erased Wednesday's losses and was last seen adding 0.75% at 99.70 ahead of the key macroeconomic data releases. Eyes on US and Canada data In the early trading hours of the American session, the ADP will release its Employment Change data for the private sector. More importantly, the IHS Markit's final reading of March Manufacturing PMI data for the US and the ISM's Manufacturing PMI will be watched closely by the market participants. The Canadian Economic docket will feature the Markit Manufacturing PMI reading as well.  Previewing the PMI data from US, “economic data from March and April will be historically grim," said FXStreet analyst Joseph Trevisani. "While the markets seem increasingly convinced that the recovery will be swift and dramatic, business investment and sector recovery is likely to await more concrete information.” Technical levels to watch for  

The GBP/USD pair extended its sideways consolidative price action through the mid-European session on Wednesday and remained capped below the key 1.25

GBP/USD continued with its range-bound price action for the third straight session.The set-up seems tilted in favour of bullish traders, albeit warrants some caution.The GBP/USD pair extended its sideways consolidative price action through the mid-European session on Wednesday and remained capped below the key 1.2500 psychological mark. The recent subdued/range-bound trading moves now seemed to constitute towards the formation of a rectangle pattern, indicating a brief pause before the next leg of a directional move. Given the pair's recent strong recovery from 35-year lows, the rectangle might still be categorized as a continuation pattern and support prospects for a further near-term appreciating move. Meanwhile, oscillators on hourly charts on hourly charts maintained their bullish bias and have recovered from the negative territory on the daily chart, reinforcing the constructive outlook. However, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained break through the trading range, and a subsequent strength beyond the key 1.2500 psychological mark before placing fresh bullish bets. On the flip side, the lower end of the mentioned range coincides with 100-hour SMA, which should now act as a key pivotal point for trades and if broken, might prompt some aggressive selling. GBP/USD 1-hourly chart Technical levels to watch  

USD/JPY is trading below the 38.2% retracement of its latest daily advance. Valeria Bednarik, a Chief Analyst at FXStreet, examines the pair from a te

USD/JPY is trading below the 38.2% retracement of its latest daily advance. Valeria Bednarik, a Chief Analyst at FXStreet, examines the pair from a technical perspective. Key quotes “The USD/JPY pair is trading just below the 38.2% retracement of its latest daily advance, also below all of its moving averages in the 4-hour chart.”  “Despite the lack of follow-through, the risk is skewed to the downside, as the 20 SMA is crossing below the larger ones, while technical indicators lack directional strength.” “Support levels: 107.10 106.80 Resistance levels: 108.00 108.35”

Chile IMACEC up to 2.7% in February from previous 1.5%

Analysts at Danske Bank take a look at how the coronavirus crisis is affecting the euro inflation outlook. Key quotes “A sharp drop in the oil price a

Analysts at Danske Bank take a look at how the coronavirus crisis is affecting the euro inflation outlook. Key quotes “A sharp drop in the oil price and significant price decreases in clothing and footwear as well as travel-related items are set to take their toll on the euro inflation outlook in the short term and we expect core inflation to average now only 0.7% in 2020.” “We do not expect announced fiscal and monetary measures to result in a marked inflationary boost for the euro area economy.”  

The US jobs report is considered perhaps the most important economic indicator, but the jobs report for March due out on Friday is already outdated be

The US jobs report is considered perhaps the most important economic indicator, but the jobs report for March due out on Friday is already outdated before it is released, economists at Danske Bank apprise. Key quotes “The jobs report is based on the pay period covering the 12th of the month, which is before the US really started to lock down. Instead, the focus is on the initial jobless claims for last week, which is due out tomorrow Thursday.” “If claims have risen by another 3.5m, the April jobs report will show a decline in employment of at least 7m but, unfortunately, probably more.”  “As the jobs report is already outdated, we do not expect it to be a major market mover this week.”  

Germany is trying to fend off demands for mutual debt, which threatens integrity. The worsening political situation may weigh on EUR/USD, potentially

Germany is trying to fend off demands for mutual debt, which threatens integrity. The worsening political situation may weigh on EUR/USD, potentially sending it to parity, according to FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam. Key quotes “Coronabonds are not just a new buzzword but are an essential tool to mitigate the economic fallout of coronavirus in the old continent.”  “Mutual guarantees would show investors the unity of the old continent to confront the crisis. The private sector would jump in if it knows that there is a joint effort.” “Frustration is growing in Spain and Italy, with France also growing impatient. Leaders of these countries could become more vocal, putting additional pressure on Berlin. Escalating tensions would then weigh on the euro.” “If the situation worsens, investors may fear a re-run of the 2012 crisis. In this scenario, which seems far but events are moving fast, markets would flee from the euro, potentially pushing EUR/USD towards parity.”  

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will issue its purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) for the manufacturing sector in March on Wednesday April 1

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will issue its purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) for the manufacturing sector in March on Wednesday April 1 at 14:00 GMT. Joseph Trevisani, an analyst at FXStreet, with the preview. Key quotes “The purchasing managers’ index is projected to drop to 45 in March from 50.1. The new orders index is predicted to rise to 50.2 from 49.8. Employment should fall to 45.4 from 46.9. The prices paid index is predicted to decrease to 41.3 from 45.9.” “Economic data from March and April will be historically grim. While the markets seem increasingly convinced that the recovery will be swift and dramatic, business investment and sector recovery is likely to await more concrete information.” “As the global situation stabilizes and then improves risk will creep back into the markets and gradually deflate that dollar advantage but it will likely be replaced by the US economy’s faster recovery from the pandemic.”  

EUR/USD is prolonging the downside momentum following the recent breakdown of the key support at the 1.1000 neighbourhood, where also coincide the 55-

EUR/USD’s recovery seems to have met a tough barrier near 1.1150.A breach of 1.0990 should open the door to further downside.EUR/USD is prolonging the downside momentum following the recent breakdown of the key support at the 1.1000 neighbourhood, where also coincide the 55-day SMA and the January’s low. If sellers keep dominating the market, then another test of the Fibo retracement (of the 2017-2018 rally) should not be ruled out in the short-term horizon, exposing at the same time a move to the yearly low at 1.0777. The selling pressure is expected to mitigate above the 200-day SMA and recent tops in the mid-1.1100s its. EUR/USD daily chart    

United States MBA Mortgage Applications: 15.3% (March 27) vs -29.4%

The European Commission has proposed a new short-time work scheme to help EU member states most affected by the coronavirus outbreak, European Commiss

The European Commission has proposed a new short-time work scheme to help EU member states most affected by the coronavirus outbreak, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on Wednesday. "Thanks to the scheme proposed by the Commission, more people will keep jobs during the epidemic, they will go back to full work as soon as the lockdown will be over," von der Leyen explained. "The new EU scheme is crucial to restarting Europe's economic engine." Market reaction These comments failed to help the market sentiment improve on Wednesday. As of writing, the Euro Stoxx 50 Index was down 3.1% on the day while Germany's DAX was erasing 3.5%.

The NZD/USD broke below the 0.6000 handle on Tuesday and closed the day around mid-0.5900s before extending its slide on Wednesday. As of writing, the

NZD fails to capitalize on upbeat PMI data from China.US Dollar Index climbs higher toward 100 on risk aversion.Coming up: ADP Employment Change, ISM Manufacturing PMI data from US.The NZD/USD broke below the 0.6000 handle on Tuesday and closed the day around mid-0.5900s before extending its slide on Wednesday. As of writing, the pair was trading at 0.5906, erasing 0.8% on a daily basis. Although the data from China revealed that the economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded at a modest pace in March with the Caixin PMI improving to 50.1 from 40.3 in February, the NZD failed to capitalize on this data. The risk-off atmosphere amid the surging number of confirmed coronavirus infections and fatalities worldwide seems to be making it difficult for the risk-sensitive kiwi to find demand. Reflecting the dismal mood, major European equity indexes are erasing more than 3% on the first day of the second quarter. Focus shifts to US data Meanwhile, the greenback is preserving its strength with the US Dollar Index posting decisive gains above the 99.50 mark on Wednesday. In the second half of the day, the ADP Employment Change data and the ISM's Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to drop to 45 in March from 50.1 in February will be looked upon for fresh impetus. Previewing the ISM report, “March ISM data are likely to portray an economy plunging into recession, even with many of the responses to the survey largely reflecting activity in the first half of the month,” said TD Securities analysts. Technical levels to watch for  

DXY met solid contention in the vicinity of the key 200-day SMA just above 98.00 the figure in recent sessions. Bulls appear to have regained the uppe

DXY manages to leave behind Tuesday’s pullback and refocuses on 100.00.The outlook remains positive above the 200-day SMA above 98.00.DXY met solid contention in the vicinity of the key 200-day SMA just above 98.00 the figure in recent sessions. Bulls appear to have regained the upper hand on Wednesday and keep pushing higher, keeping the interim target at the triple-digit barrier ahead of the Fibo retracement (of the 2017-2018 drop) at 100.49. So far, the positive outlook on the dollar remains unchanged as long as the 200-day SMA around 98.00 holds the downside. DXY daily chart  

After printing multi-week tops beyond 121.00 the figure last week, EUR/JPY came under increasing selling pressure and is once again navigating the sub

EUR/JPY extends the bearish momentum below the 108.00 mark.The next target now emerges at the YTD lows in the vicinity of 116.00.After printing multi-week tops beyond 121.00 the figure last week, EUR/JPY came under increasing selling pressure and is once again navigating the sub-118.00 area. If the selling impetus picks up pace, then there are no relevant support levels until the 2020 low at 116.11 recorded in early March. Looking at the broader picture, while beow the key 200-day SMA at 119.97, the cross should keep the negative stance unaltered. A more serious rally is expected to surpass tops beyond 121.00 the figure. EUR/JPY daily chart  

The Chinese State Council announced more stimulus measures aimed at promoting investment, increasing support to SMEs and enhancing household welfare t

The Chinese State Council announced more stimulus measures aimed at promoting investment, increasing support to SMEs and enhancing household welfare to help people affected by the epidemic, economists at Standard Chartered Bank brief. Key quotes “We now forecast a widening of China’s broad budget deficit to 8% of GDP in 2020 (from 6.5% previously). Last year, China implemented a broad-based budget deficit of 5.6% of GDP.” “We maintain our forecast that the PBoC will cut the MLF rate by another 10bps in Q3, and the benchmark deposit rate by 25bps in Q2 (as soon as in April).”  

The buying interest around the greenback picked up pace in the last hour and lifted the USD/CHF pair to daily tops, around the 0.9665-70 region. The p

USD/CHF regains positive traction on Wednesday amid resurgent USD demand.The up-move seemed unaffected by a fresh wave of the global risk-aversion trade.The buying interest around the greenback picked up pace in the last hour and lifted the USD/CHF pair to daily tops, around the 0.9665-70 region. The pair caught some fresh bids on Wednesday and moved back closer to the overnight swing high, touched ahead of the Fed's latest move to allow foreign central banks to temporarily exchange their holdings of the US Treasuries for dollar loans. Following the previous session's intraday pullback, the US dollar regained positive traction amid persistent worries over the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and turned out to be one of the key factors that provided a goodish lift to the major. Meanwhile, mounting fears about an imminent global recession triggered a fresh wave of the global risk-aversion trade, which tends to underpin the Swiss franc's safe-haven demand, albeit did little to hinder the pair's intraday positive momentum. With the USD price dynamics turning out to be an exclusive driver of the pair's momentum through the early European session, market participants now look forward to the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for a fresh trading impetus. Technical levels to watch  

The Russian government is not holding talks with Saudi Arabia on oil markets at the moment, a Kremlin spokesperson said on Wednesday. "Talks with Saud

The Russian government is not holding talks with Saudi Arabia on oil markets at the moment, a Kremlin spokesperson said on Wednesday. "Talks with Saudi Arabia could be set up in a timely manner if necessary," the spokesperson added.  Earlier in the session, a spokesperson for Russia's Energy Ministry noted that the slump in the demand and the oversupply on the oil market was creating risks in the longer term.  Market reaction The barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) largely ignored these headlines and was last seen trading at $20.25, adding 0.75% on a daily basis.

Spanish Health Ministry reports over 100,000 new confirmed coronavirus cases, with a daily death toll reaching a new record high. With a record 864 ne

Spanish Health Ministry reports over 100,000 new confirmed coronavirus cases, with a daily death toll reaching a new record high. With a record 864 new deaths reported, the total mortalities rose to 9,053 as on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the number of confirmed cases has risen to 102,136 from Tuesday’s 94,417. Spain's total number of coronavirus cases has already surpassed those reported in China. Spanish Economy Minister: Govt doesn't have liquidity or financing problem despite coronavirus crisis EUR/USD implications EUR/USD is off the lows but still remains under heavy selling pressure, courtesy broad dollar demand amid a flight to safety. The coronavirus crisis continues to fuel global recession fears, as investors run for cover in the greenback.

The US will release ADP Employment Change at 12:15 GMT and ISM Manufacturing PMI at 14:00 GMT. Analysts at TD Securities forecast the figures of the A

The US will release ADP Employment Change at 12:15 GMT and ISM Manufacturing PMI at 14:00 GMT. Analysts at TD Securities forecast the figures of the American data. Key quotes “March ISM data are likely to portray an economy plunging into recession, even with many of the responses to the survey largely reflecting activity in the first half of the month.”  “A sharp decline in the headline index looks likely even with a boost from slower delivery times. We forecast a drop to 44.0 for March following a small decline to 50.1 in February. April should be even weaker.”  “We're forecasting an ADP employment print at -100k for March, with consensus looking for a larger drop at -150k.”  

The weekly data published by the US Department of Labor (DoL) on March 26th revealed that the Initial Jobless Claims jumped to an all-time high of 3,2

The weekly data published by the US Department of Labor (DoL) on March 26th revealed that the Initial Jobless Claims jumped to an all-time high of 3,283,000. Eren Sengezer from FXStreet analyzes the impact of Covid-19 on the US labour market. Key quotes “Wall Street's main indexes stretched higher to suggest that this reading had little to no impact on the market sentiment because of more people are now eligible to apply for unemployment insurance.”  “People who are expected to be called back to work are counted as 'unemployed'. However, the BLS states that those who have no job and are not looking for one are counted as 'not in the labor force'.” “The most likely scenario is that there will be a large drop in the Labor Force Participation Rate and a modest increase in the Unemployment Rate in the near term.” “Since the Unemployment Rate is a lagging indicator, labor market data for April and May will paint a more accurate picture of the current situation.”  

Having faced rejection once again near 20.80 region, WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) resumes its recent bearish trend, as the bears now look to test the 17

WTI risks further falls amid heightening oversupply concerns. Broad US dollar demand exacerbates the pain in oil. All eyes remain on EIA data and coronavirus updates. Having faced rejection once again near 20.80 region, WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) resumes its recent bearish trend, as the bears now look to test the 17-year low of 19.27 reached earlier this week. At the time of writing, the black gold trades at 20.25, down 1.30% on a daily basis. The sentiment around the black gold remains undermined renewed oversupply concerns, with the rising OPEC oil output as well as the US crude stockpiles. According to a Reuters survey released on Tuesday, the crude oil output of the OPEC increased by 90,000 barrels per day (bpd) in March to 27.93 million bpd. Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) data showed that the US crude inventories rose by 10.5 million barrels last week, way above the expectations for a 4 million barrel build-up. Adding to the downtrend, an industry official noted that the Saudi Arabian oil giant Aramco’s ramped up its oil output to above 12 million barrel per day (bpd). The mounting concerns of a supply overhang overshadowed the upbeat remarks from a Russian official, who stated that they are not planning to boost oil output. The prices also remain pressured by the Reuters report that top US officials have for now put aside a proposal for an alliance with Saudi Arabia to stabilize the oil market. Attention now turns towards the USD price-action and Crude Stocks data due to be published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the near-term trading opportunities in oil. WTI technical levels to consider  

Manufacturing PMI will give an early look at COVID's impact on the Canadian industrial sector. Analysts at TD Securities forecast the data. Key quotes

Manufacturing PMI will give an early look at COVID's impact on the Canadian industrial sector. Analysts at TD Securities forecast the data.  Key quotes “TD looks for the index to fall to 45.0, surpassing 2015 lows, following a collapse in the CFIB Business Barometer which sent business confidence to record lows.” “Although services should see a larger immediate impact than manufacturing, Markit does not produce a service sector PMI for Canada, leaving investors in the dark until we receive Ivey PMI on April 7 and the March LFS on April 9th.”  

Economists at ABN Amro analyze the impact of the coronavirus on the Netherlands. Key quotes “We expect GDP to shrink roughly 3.5% this year. The main

Economists at ABN Amro analyze the impact of the coronavirus on the Netherlands. Key quotes “We expect GDP to shrink roughly 3.5% this year. The main economic contraction will take place in the first and, above all, second quarters (-1.3% and -4.5% qoq respectively)."  “Assuming that most restrictions will be lifted in June, the economy can then start to revive in the summer. We think that growth will not start climbing to a higher level until 2021.” “We distinguish between consumer spending that is expected to be hit hard by the coronavirus (some 40%) and spending that will be largely unaffected (some 60%).”  

The impact of the coronavirus started to hit the US in March. As the days went by, we all know what has happened. And that hasn't been lost on the Ame

The impact of the coronavirus started to hit the US in March. As the days went by, we all know what has happened. And that hasn't been lost on the American consumer, as confidence levels plummeted, Jennifer Lee from BMO Capital Markets Economics briefs. Key quotes “The U.S. Conference Board's consumer confidence survey lost 12.6 pts in March to a near 3-year low of 120.0, the largest monthly plunge since August 2011.” “This reading wasn't as bad as expected. Interestingly, consumers were quite calm about their current status, as the 'present situation' only slipped 1.6 pts to a 4-month low of 167.7 but there are very deep concerns about what will unfold in the next six months or so.” “The 'expectations' component took a 19.9 pt nosedive. So many obvious reasons why, but I'll point to the job situation.”

The AUD/USD pair extended the previous day's retracement slide from two-week tops – levels beyond the 0.6200 mark – and edged lower for the second con

AUD/USD remains depressed for the second consecutive session on Wednesday.The near-term technical set-up might have already shifted back in favour of bears.The AUD/USD pair extended the previous day's retracement slide from two-week tops – levels beyond the 0.6200 mark – and edged lower for the second consecutive session on Wednesday. The downward momentum dragged the pair below an important confluence support, around the 0.6100 mark, which comprised of a near two-week-old ascending trend-line and 100-hour SMA. Given that technical indicators on the daily chart maintained their bearish bias and have again started gaining negative momentum on hourly charts, the set-up seems tilted in favour of bearish traders. Hence, a subsequent fall, towards testing the 0.6025-20 intermediate support en-route the key 0.60 psychological mark, now looks a distinct possibility amid resurgent USD demand. Some follow-through selling might turn the pair vulnerable to extend the downward trajectory further towards challenging its next horizontal support near mid-0.5900s. On the flip side, any attempted recovery is likely to confront some fresh supply and remain capped near the mentioned confluence support breakpoint, now turned stiff resistance. AUD/USD 1-hourly chart Technical levels to watch  

Automatic Data Processing (ADP) the US private payroll processing company will release its National Employment Report for March on Wednesday, April 1

Automatic Data Processing (ADP) the US private payroll processing company will release its National Employment Report for March on Wednesday, April 1 at 12:15 GMT. Joseph Trevisani, an analyst at FXStreet, with the preview. Key quotes “Payrolls for ADP’s clients are expected to have cut payrolls by 154,000 in March after adding 183,000 workers in February and 209,000 in January.” “It is probably that the estimates for the ADP and by implication NFP on Friday understate the damage from the fast-moving Coronavirus on the US economy.”  “Though the risk for the ADP figure is on the downside its dollar impact is the reverse as the US currency is benefiting from its revived safety status.”  

Strategists at TD Securities see the implementation of a supply agreement in the third quarter as probable. Key quotes “With Brent at just under $23/b

Strategists at TD Securities see the implementation of a supply agreement in the third quarter as probable. Key quotes “With Brent at just under $23/bbl and its reserves dropping at a much faster rate than expected, Russia may have a much shorter fiscal runway to keep the oil war going than many have thought.” “Given that the realized price many North American oil producers are receiving is in the single digits, insolvency is pending for many producers which is the Russian objective. This may prompt a supply agreement earlier rather than later, with implementation by Q3 a possibility.”  

The downbeat sentiment in the shared currency stays well and sound for yet another session, dragging EUR/USD to weekly lows in the 1.0930 zone. EUR/US

EUR/USD extends the weekly downside to the 1.0930 region.German Retail Sales expanded 1.2% MoM during February.Manufacturing/Services PMIs in the euro area came in mixed.The downbeat sentiment in the shared currency stays well and sound for yet another session, dragging EUR/USD to weekly lows in the 1.0930 zone. EUR/USD now looks to US dataEUR/USD is down for the third consecutive session so far on Wednesday and is flirting with a Fibo retracement of the March drop in the 1.0960 area. The resumption of the upside momentum in the greenback is putting the pair under extra pressure in the area of multi-day lows, despite the Federal Reserve announced another measure to ease concerns on the funding front on Tuesday, all aimed to fight the COVID-19 fallout. In the docket, better-than-expected German Retail Sales passed unnoticed among traders earlier in the session, while final PMIs in the euro area came in on a mixed tone. Across the pond, the Manufacturing ISM will grab all the attention later in the session. What to look for around EUR The rally in EUR/USD appears to have met some interesting hurdle in the vicinity 1.1150 so far, sparking some corrective downside in consequence. In the meantime, dynamics around the greenback plus developments from the COVID-19 are expected to keep ruling the price action in the pair. On the macro view, recent better-than-forecasted PMIs in both Germany and the broader Euroland opened the door to some respite in the prevailing downtrend in fundamentals in the region, although the underlying stance still remains well on the negative side and aggravated by recession fears in response to the COVID-19 fallout as well as the probability of the re-emergence of disinflationary trends. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the pair is losing 0.80% at 1.0941 and faces the next support at 1.0814 (78.6% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally) followed by 1.0777 (monthly low Feb.20) and finally 1.0635 (2020 low Mar.23). On the flip side, a break above 1.1077 (200-day SMA) would target 1.1147 (weekly high Mar.27) en route to 1.1186 (61.8% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally).

Citing an industry official, Bloomberg reports that Saudi Arabia’s oil giant Aramco’s oil supply has surged above 12 million barrels per day (bpd). Mo

Citing an industry official, Bloomberg reports that Saudi Arabia’s oil giant Aramco’s oil supply has surged above 12 million barrels per day (bpd).   More to follow ...

In a joint statement with Germany’s Economy Minister Peter Altmaier, Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said that the government is committing allocating EU

In a joint statement with Germany’s Economy Minister Peter Altmaier, Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said that the government is committing allocating EUR2 billion ($2.19 billion) to help support start-ups during the coronavirus crisis, as cited by Reuters.  Meanwhile, Altmaier noted: “All the normal aid programs are of course also available to start-ups but we also want to do something for companies that have fewer options for obtaining credit lines and who benefit less from short-time working,” “That’s why we have come up with this tailored 2 billion euro program which will help start-ups to survive this difficult time,” he added. Italy’s Speranza: Govt decides to extend lockdown measures to April 13 EUR/USD remains heavy below 1.1000 EUR/USD spot faces a double whammy this Wednesday and remains heavily offered, in the wake of broad-based US dollar strength and poor Euro area Manufacturing PMIs, which reflected the economic fallout from the virus outbreak. At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades at 1.0952, having hit a new daily low at 1.0931. The spot is losing nearly 0.70% on a daily basis.

Indonesia’s headline inflation remains within the central bank’s target band. Inflation has really become a background issue, thereby allowing monetar

Indonesia’s headline inflation remains within the central bank’s target band. Inflation has really become a background issue, thereby allowing monetary policy to support growth, economists at ANZ Bank apprise.  Key quotes “Indonesia’s March headline inflation remains comfortably within the central bank’s 2-4% target band, at 2.96%.” “On a sequential basis, headline CPI moderated 0.1% m/m in March from 0.28% in February.” “The government has scaled back its 2020 GDP growth forecast by 300bps to 2.3%.” “A 25bp reduction in the policy rate later this month is a certainty, in our view.”  

European Monetary Union Unemployment Rate came in at 7.3% below forecasts (7.4%) in February

With the announcement of the Australian Government’s latest JobKeeper Payment (JKP) policy and further tightening of social distancing guidelines West

With the announcement of the Australian Government’s latest JobKeeper Payment (JKP) policy and further tightening of social distancing guidelines Westpac Institutional Bank have reviewed our employment, GDP, and Budget deficit forecasts. Key quotes “We expect GDP will now contract by 8.5% in the June quarter; to be followed by a 0.6% contraction in the September quarter; and a 5.2% lift in the December quarter. Overall, the economy is expected to contract by 5% through the 2020 year.” “Compared to the peak forecast rate of 17% unemployment in June without the JKP we expect the rate will peak at 9% in June and subsequently fall to around 7% by end December.” “If the increased deficit is fully funded by bond issuance, the bond supply is expected to lift by an additional $310bn compared to the $250bn we estimated prior to the JKP.”  

The GBP/USD pair maintained its offered tone near session lows, around mid-1.2300s, and had a rather muted reaction to the UK macro data. The pair fai

GBP/USD failed to capitalize on the overnight strong rebound of around 130 pips.Resurgent USD demand exerted some pressure amid concerns over coronavirus.The GBP/USD pair maintained its offered tone near session lows, around mid-1.2300s, and had a rather muted reaction to the UK macro data. The pair failed to capitalize on the previous day's goodish intraday bounce of around 130 pips – back closer to the key 1.2500 psychological mark, or two-week tops – and met with some fresh supply on Wednesday amid resurgent US dollar demand. As investors looked past the Fed's overnight move to allow foreign central banks to exchange their holdings of the US Treasuries for overnight dollar loans, the greenback managed to regain traction amid a fresh wave of the global risk-aversion trade. Despite efforts by major central banks and governments across the world, concerns over the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic continued underpinning the USD's demand as the global reserve currency and exerted some pressure on the major. Meanwhile, Wednesday's release of the final UK Manufacturing PMI, which was revised down to 47.8 in March versus 48.0 estimates earlier, did little to meaningful impetus, with the USD price dynamics turning out to be an exclusive driver of the pair's momentum on Wednesday. Later during the early North-American session, the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI – though is unlikely to be a game-changer – might influence the USD and assist traders to grab some short-term opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

The sharply lower oil price means that energy costs for mining companies are falling. Oversupply is looming and with weaker demand for metals due to t

The sharply lower oil price means that energy costs for mining companies are falling. Oversupply is looming and with weaker demand for metals due to the coronavirus crisis, the sector’s problems will only increase, per ABN Amro. Key quotes “The sharply lower oil price has led to a significant reduction in operating costs, which reduces the financial stress for many mining companies.” “Lower operating costs are often an incentive for many mining companies to maintain or even expand production, which will eventually lead to oversupply in many metal markets, and this could translate into relatively low metal prices in the longer term.” “Economic uncertainty remains high for the time being, which will keep prices of many base metals at a relatively low level in the coming quarters. “ABN AMRO expects the oil price to reach USD 50 per barrel at the end of 2021, which will continue to challenge the mining sector. It also implies that marginal and unprofitable mines will be able to continue producing for some time to come.”

Russia is not planning to boost oil output amid oversupply More to come …

Russia is not planning to boost oil output amid oversupply, according to a Russian government official, cited by Bloomberg. He added that Russia is not holding oil talks with Saudi Arabia yet.   More to come …

Economist Ho Woei Chen, CFA, at UOB Group, assessed the recent improvement of the key PMIs for the month of March. Key Quotes “China’s official Purcha

Economist Ho Woei Chen, CFA, at UOB Group, assessed the recent improvement of the key PMIs for the month of March. Key Quotes “China’s official Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) did a dramatic turnaround in March with both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes surging as dramatically as they had plummeted a month earlier.” “The manufacturing PMI rose 16.3 points to 52.0 in March from a record low of 35.7 in February. This was the highest reading since September 2017 and notably even better than the months prior to the COVID-19 outbreak.” “Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing PMI rebounded a sharper 22.7 points to 52.3 in March from record low 29.6 in February.” “With the global economy heading into a recession and with expectation of large job losses ahead as the COVID-19 pandemic continues its spread in the major economies, it is difficult to conclude from China’s PMI that we are now back in a business-as-usual environment. The initial euphoria from the return to a semblance of normality in China is likely to ease as other major economies take a bigger hit from the pandemic due to factors including lockdowns of cities. This could cause China’s PMIs to moderate lower in the months ahead until the pandemic tops out globally.” “Looking ahead, we continue to expect a contraction in China’s 1Q20 GDP by -3.4% y/y (4Q19: 6.0%) when the data is released on 17 April. From there, we expect the economy to recover to +5.7% y/y in 2Q20.”

Following the meeting with the government's expert panel on the coronavirus pandemic earlier today, Japanese Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura anno

Following the meeting with the government's expert panel on the coronavirus pandemic earlier today, Japanese Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura announced that there is no need to declare a state of emergency now.   This comes as markets were speculating a lockdown in the capital, Tokyo, where 66 new cases have been reported on Wednesday, with the total count standing at 587.

Open interest in crude oil futures markets extended the uptrend on Tuesday, this time rising by around 47.4K contracts as per advanced readings from C

Open interest in crude oil futures markets extended the uptrend on Tuesday, this time rising by around 47.4K contracts as per advanced readings from CME Group. On the flip side, volume decreased by around 307.6K contracts, prolonging the choppy activity seen as of late. WTI could re-test lows in sub-$20.00 levels Price action around WTI was inconclusive on Tuesday and it was accompanied by rising open interest and a down tick in volume. That said, another visit to 18-year lows around $19.30 remains well on the cards against the unchanged backdrop of he deteriorated sentiment around the oil market.

In an appearance before the upper house Senate on Wednesday, Italian Health Minister Roberto Speranza announced that the government has decided to ext

In an appearance before the upper house Senate on Wednesday, Italian Health Minister Roberto Speranza announced that the government has decided to extend (not postpone) anti-coronavirus lockdown measures in the country to April 13th. Key quotes "We must not confuse the first positive signals with an 'all clear' signal. Data shows that we are on the right path and that the drastic decisions are bearing fruit." The "battle (against the virus) is still very long." Italy’s new infections stood at 4,053 on Tuesday. Deaths have remained largely steady at over 800 a day.  EUR/USD: Little traction found below 1.0950 – OCBC

The UK manufacturing sector activity contracted less-than-expected in the month of March, the final report from IHS Markit showed this Monday. The sea

The UK manufacturing sector activity contracted less-than-expected in the month of March, the final report from IHS Markit showed this Monday. The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was revised down to 47.8 in March versus 47.0 expected and 48.0 – March’s first reading. Key points               Business optimism slumps to series-record low. Supply chain disruption intensifies. Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit, commented on the survey “The latest survey numbers underscore how the global outbreak of COVID-19 is causing huge disruptions to production, demand and supply chains at UK manufacturers. Output and new orders fell at the fastest rates since mid- 2012, while supplier delivery times lengthened to the greatest extent in the 28-year survey history as shortages grew more widespread. The resulting job losses took the rate of decline in employment to its highest since July 2009.” “The effects were felt across most of manufacturing, with output falling sharply in all major sectors except food production and pharmaceuticals. The transport sector, which includes already-beleaguered car-makers, suffered the steepest downturn.” FX implications The GBP bears retain control following the downward revision to the UK Manufacturing PMI for March, as GBP/USD attempts a bounce from daily lows of 1.2330. At the press time, Cable trades at 1.1.2344, still down -0.64% amid notable US dollar demand across the board.

United Kingdom Markit Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (47) in March: Actual (47.8)

CME Group’s flash data for copper futures markets showed open interest and volume increased by 732 contracts and by around 16.8K contracts, respective

CME Group’s flash data for copper futures markets showed open interest and volume increased by 732 contracts and by around 16.8K contracts, respectively, on Tuesday. Copper faces the next hurdle at 2.3230, the 21-day SMA Prices of the pound of the base metal met resistance near $2.25 on Tuesday. The positive session was on the back of rising open interest and volume, which allows for some extension of the rebound, at least in the near term, with the target at the 21-day SMA in the 2.3230 region.

Gold built on its steady intraday bounce from over one-week lows and spiked to fresh session tops, around the $1600 round-figure mark in the last hour

Gold reversed an early dip to over one-week lows and turned higher for the day.The safe-haven precious metal benefitted from the global risk-aversion trade.Resurgent USD demand might turn out to be a key factor that might cap gains.Gold built on its steady intraday bounce from over one-week lows and spiked to fresh session tops, around the $1600 round-figure mark in the last hour. The precious metal quickly reversed an early Asian session dip to levels below the $1570 region, rather caught some fresh bids and recovered a part of the previous session's sharp intraday slide amid reviving safe-haven demand. Concerns that broader lockdowns across the world – to fight the coronavirus pandemic – will take its toll on the global economy continued weighing on investors' sentiment and the same was evident from a fresh wave of the risk-aversion trade. The global flight to the safety provided a goodish lift to traditional safe-haven assets and the same was further reinforced by a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields, which eventually boosted demand for the non-yielding yellow metal. Meanwhile, a strong pickup in the US dollar demand did little to hinder the intraday positive move, albeit might turn out to be the only factor that might keep a lid on any runaway rally for the dollar-denominated commodity, at least for now. The greenback remained well supported by its status as the global reserve currency amid mounting fears over the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, despite the recent efforts by central banks and governments across the world. It is worth reporting that the Fed on Tuesday announced a temporary facility to support the smooth functioning of the financial markets, which allows foreign central banks to exchange their holdings of the US Treasuries for overnight dollar loans.
It will now be interesting to see if bulls are able to capitalize on the momentum or the commodity meets with some fresh supply at higher levels. Market participants now look forward to the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for a fresh trading impetus. Technical levels to watch  

A busy day including disease headlines, economic figures, and market mood swings, will likely move the cable, according to FXStreet’s analyst Yohay El

A busy day including disease headlines, economic figures, and market mood swings, will likely move the cable, according to FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam. Key quotes “Investors are zooming in coronavirus figures, which are becoming more worrying in the UK. A flatter coronavirus curve could boost the pound while an ongoing upward trajectory would weigh on sterling.” “ADP’s private-sector labor market figures for March are projected to show a loss of 150,000 jobs. A depressing statistic from ADP may push stocks lower and the safe-haven dollar higher.” “The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index awaits traders later. Economists are expecting a relatively moderate fall to 45 points.” “Markit’s Final Manufacturing PMI will likely confirm the score of 48 points.”

In light of the recent performance, USD/JPY risks further weakness in the near term, in opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour vie

In light of the recent performance, USD/JPY risks further weakness in the near term, in opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our view for USD yesterday was that it “could edge higher but any advance is viewed as part of a 107.60/109.00 range”. USD subsequently rose to 108.72 before dropping sharply to a low of 107.44. Despite the rapid decline, downward momentum has not improved by as much. That said, a dip below 107.00 would not be surprising but in view of the less than stellar momentum, any weakness in USD could be limited to a test of 106.60. Resistance is at 108.00 followed by 108.40. The 108.72 high is likely ‘safe’ for today.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We detected the short-term top in USD relatively early when we indicated last Thursday (26 Mar) when it was trading at a much higher level of 110.70 that “risk of a short-term top in USD has increased”. As USD subsequently dropped, we indicated that “a short-term top is in place; USD could weaken further to 107.00”. USD dropped to 107.10 on Monday (30 Mar) but since then, it appears to be a bit hesitant in extending its down move. For now, we continue to see chance for further weakness as the next support of note below 107.00 is not until 105.90. That said, in view of the lackluster momentum, this level may be out of reach this time round (there is a minor support at 106.60). All in, the current weakness in USD is deemed as intact until there is a breach of 109.40 (‘strong resistance’ level was previously at 109.80).”

Greece Markit Manufacturing PMI down to 42.5 in March from previous 56.2

European Monetary Union Markit Manufacturing PMI registered at 44.5, below expectations (44.7) in March

Italy Unemployment below expectations (10%) in February: Actual (9.7%)

In light of preliminary readings for Gold futures markets from CME Group, traders scaled back their open interest positions for yet another session on

In light of preliminary readings for Gold futures markets from CME Group, traders scaled back their open interest positions for yet another session on Tuesday, now by around 22.6K contracts. On the other hand, volume went up by around 3.2K contracts following two straight drops. Gold still capped by $1,650/oz Tuesday’s negative price action in the ounce troy of gold was amidst declining open interest, which should keep the downside somewhat limited and paving the way for a probable rebound in the short-term horizon.

Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI registered at 45.4, below expectations (45.5) in March

France Markit Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (42.9) in March: Actual (43.2)

AUD/USD appears to keep the 0.5900-0.6250 range for the time being, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We expected AUD t

AUD/USD appears to keep the 0.5900-0.6250 range for the time being, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We expected AUD to trade ‘in a relatively quiet manner between 0.6110 and 0.6220’ yesterday. However, AUD dropped sharply to 0.6070, snapped higher quickly and touched a high of 0.6215 (before spending the rest of the sessions trading between 0.6070 and 0.6215). The price action has resulted in a mixed outlook and for today, AUD is expected to trade in an ‘undecided’ manner, likely holding within yesterday’s 0.6070/0.6215 range.” Next 1-3 weeks: “The relatively quiet price action yesterday came as a surprise. For now, we are holding on to our view from last Friday (27 Mar, spot at 0.5960) wherein AUD could ‘chop around’ within a broad range. However, the decrease in volatility suggests that a 0.5900/0.6250 range (narrowed from 0.5650/0.6250) could contain the movement in AUD for now. Looking forward, a clear break of 0.6250 would indicate that the 0.5510 low posted on 19 Mar could turn out to be a significant bottom.”

Italy Markit Manufacturing PMI below expectations (40.5) in March: Actual (40.3)

The USD/CAD pair climbed to fresh daily tops in the last hour, with bulls now eyeing a move towards reclaiming the 1.4200 round-figure mark. Following

USD/CAD caught some aggressive bids and built on the overnight bounce from 1.40 mark.A goodish pickup in the USD demand turned out to be a key factor driving the pair higher.A subdued action around the oil markets did little to influence the commodity-linked loonie.The USD/CAD pair climbed to fresh daily tops in the last hour, with bulls now eyeing a move towards reclaiming the 1.4200 round-figure mark. Following the previous session's sharp intraday pullback of nearly 350 pips and a late bounce from the key 1.40 psychological mark, the pair caught some fresh bids on Wednesday and was being supported by a goodish pickup in the US dollar demand. Investors remained concerns that the ever-increasing coronavirus cases and broader lockdowns across the world will take its toll on the global economy. This buoyed the USD's status as the global reserve currency and assisted the pair to regain positive traction. Meanwhile, a subdued oil price dynamics did little to provide any meaningful impetus to the commodity-linked currency – the loonie – or influence the pair's intraday momentum through the early European session on Wednesday. It will now be interesting to see if the pair is able to capitalize on the move or runs into some fresh supply at higher levels. Later during the early North-American session, the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI will be looked upon for some short-term trading opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

Open interest in JPY futures markets from CME Group rose by just 877 contracts on Tuesday, reversing three consecutive pullbacks according to flash da

Open interest in JPY futures markets from CME Group rose by just 877 contracts on Tuesday, reversing three consecutive pullbacks according to flash data from CME Group. In the same line, volume increased by almost 9.8K contracts after two drops in a row. USD/JPY: Door open for a move to 107.00USD/JPY remains on the defensive so far this week against the backdrop of increasing open interest and volume in the Japanese safe haven. That said, further upside in the yen is likely, allowing for a potential move to the 107.00 neighbourhood in the hear term.

Austria Unemployment: 504.3K (March) vs 334K

Austria Unemployment Rate up to 12.2% in March from previous 8.1%

EUR/USD short-term bottom may be in place, according to Terence Wu, an FX strategist at OCBC Bank. Key quotes “The EUR/USD breached 1.1100 and 1.1000

EUR/USD short-term bottom may be in place, according to Terence Wu, an FX strategist at OCBC Bank. Key quotes “The EUR/USD breached 1.1100 and 1.1000 in quick succession, but found little traction below 1.0950.” “Topside momentum is curtailed, but the support levels around 1.0950 to 1.1000 appear firm for now.”  “Likely to see consolidation around the 1.1000 handle, pending further directionality.”  

Switzerland SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index above expectations (40) in March: Actual (43.7)

GBP/USD Wednesday’s four-hour chart is showing upside momentum is lost. Yohay Elam, an analyst at FXStreet, takes a look at the worsened technical pic

GBP/USD Wednesday’s four-hour chart is showing upside momentum is lost. Yohay Elam, an analyst at FXStreet, takes a look at the worsened technical picture of the cable. Key quotes “Momentum on the four-hour chart has all but disappeared – a bearish sign. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average but above the 50 and 100 SMAs.” “Support awaits at 1.2310, a temporary support line early in the week. It is followed by 1.2240, the weekly low.” “Resistance awaits at 1.2440, which held GBP/USD down early in the week. 1.2485, Friday’s high point follows it.”  

The base case for the EUR/SEK pair is trading north of 11.00, in the opinion of analysts at Danske Bank. Key quotes “The combination of relatively poo

The base case for the EUR/SEK pair is trading north of 11.00, in the opinion of analysts at Danske Bank. Key quotes “The combination of relatively poor liquidity and a massive sell-off in equities alongside ‘must do’ flows has been toxic for the SEK and the main reason why the cross surged well above 11.00. Conversely, the recent risk-on pulled the cross lower again.” “If the fragile optimism prevails, then EUR/SEK could find a temporary equilibrium below 11.00.”  “If general market stress returns, then it is north of 11.00 where EUR/SEK should trade. North of 11.00 is our base case.”  

Spanish Economy Minister Nadia Calvino said on Wednesday, the government doesn't have liquidity or financing problems despite the coronavirus crisis.

Spanish Economy Minister Nadia Calvino said on Wednesday, the government doesn't have liquidity or financing problems despite the coronavirus crisis. “There must be an EU system to share a debt to overcome coronavirus crisis,” she added. Meanwhile, Spain’s March Manufacturing PMI slumped to 45.7 from 50.4 in February, the lowest since April 2013, on the coronavirus impact. EUR/USD reaction EUR/USD extends the drop below 1.1000, as downbeat Spanish PMI adds to the resurgent US dollar demand across the board, as a flight to safety remains the key theme due to looming virus risks.

USD/JPY may enter a near term rangebound, consolidation mood in the coming sessions, with the pair corridors between 107.00 and 109.00, OCBC Bank’s st

USD/JPY may enter a near term rangebound, consolidation mood in the coming sessions, with the pair corridors between 107.00 and 109.00, OCBC Bank’s strategist Terence Wu briefs. Key quotes “Continue to expect consolidation between 107.00 and 109.00, after the pair bounced higher after approaching the 107.00 level for the second consecutive session.”  “Downside support at 107.00 is considerable, and may prevent further downside extension.”  “Expect resistance at 108.50, before 109.00. Note that short-term implied valuations have effectively flat-lined.”  

Spain Markit Manufacturing PMI above expectations (44) in March: Actual (45.7)

The nation-wide shutdown in China due to the coronavirus outbreak shunned the gold buyers away from the malls, freezing the domestic bullion market. C

The nation-wide shutdown in China due to the coronavirus outbreak shunned the gold buyers away from the malls, freezing the domestic bullion market. China is the world’s biggest gold consumer, per Bloomberg. The market’s struggles in China may present a headwind for prices, which last month topped $1,700 an ounce for the first time in seven years. Last year, Chinese consumers accounted for about a fifth of total gold demand of 4,356 tons, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). China’s retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry plunged 41% in the first two months of the year.  Zhang Yongtao, chief executive officer of the China Gold Association, said: “Domestic demand for gold will recover very slowly. Even after processors resume production, one major issue is that there are no orders.” “Consumers won’t return to buy gold jewelry until the pandemic ends, and Chinese investors are also unwilling to purchase gold with their deposits at the moment,” he said. Its worth noting that gold price premiums in China “have collapsed to negative levels not observed since the Great Financial Crisis,” as noted by Citigroup Inc. The bank also said that suggests jewelry consumption could hit lows not seen in a decade or more. Gold rebounds towards 1600 mark At the moment, gold prices extend the Asian rebound towards the 1600 mark amid a flight to safety on rising virus pandemic fears. XAU/USD trades at session highs of 1593.70, as the bulls jump back on the bids.

Analysts at Danske Bank see the EUR/GBP pair trading lower in coming months due to most factors are working against the sterling now. Key quotes “Time

Analysts at Danske Bank see the EUR/GBP pair trading lower in coming months due to most factors are working against the sterling now. Key quotes “Time spent fighting the coronavirus by both the UK and the EU means less time to negotiate a deal before the end of the year, increasing the risk of a big trade shock by 1 January 2021. We forecast EUR/GBP at 0.93 in 1-3M.”  “We will probably see some of the current risk premium reverse and we expect the cross at 0.90 in 6M.”  “Our baseline is also that we will have a simple trade agreement by the end of the year, which should send EUR/GBP lower again and we see 0.87 in 12M.”  

The USD/JPY pair seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the Asian session and is currently placed in the neutral territory, just above mid-

USD/JPY edged lower during the Asian session on Wednesday amid reviving safe-haven demand.A fresh wave of the global risk-aversion trade provided a modest lift to the JPY’s safe-haven status.A strong pickup in the USD demand extended some support and helped limit deeper losses, for now.The USD/JPY pair seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the Asian session and is currently placed in the neutral territory, just above mid-107.00s. The pair extended the previous day's sharp intraday pullback of over 125 pips and witnessed some follow-through weakness through the early part of Wednesday's trading session amid reviving safe-haven demand. Despite the latest efforts by central banks and governments across the world, concerns over the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic continued denting investors' appetite for perceived riskier assets. This was evident from a fresh leg down in the global equity markets, which provided a goodish lift to the Japanese yen and turned out to be one of the key factors that exerted some pressure on the major. Bearish traders further took cues from the ongoing slide in the US Treasury bond yields, albeit a goodish pickup in the US dollar demand extended some support and helped limit deeper losses, at least for now. The greenback regained some positive traction as investors looked past the Fed's latest move to allow foreign central banks to temporarily exchange their holdings of the US Treasuries for dollar loans. This coupled with mounting fears about an imminent global recession further benefitted the USD's status as the global reserve currency and might hold back investors from placing any aggressive bearish bets. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through selling before traders again start positioning for an extension of the pair's recent sharp pullback from one-month tops set last Wednesday. Technical levels to watch  

Chinese PMI manufacturing returned to expansion territory in March, but it should not be seen as evidence for activity is back at normal, as Nordea’s

Chinese PMI manufacturing returned to expansion territory in March, but it should not be seen as evidence for activity is back at normal, as Nordea’s analyst Amy Yuan Zhuang notes. USD/CNY trades at 7.0976. Key quotes “The Caixin/Markit reading was 50.1 and the official was 52, both surprised the market consensus by a big margin.” “Despite the positive surprises, we do not take these data as a sign that the Chinese industrial sector is back to normal.” “Given the global spread of the virus, we see little room for the export orders to return to above 50.” “We expect the industrial sector to lead the recovery in the Chinese economy, especially the large manufacturers. Most high-frequency indicators show that the service sector lags behind that of the manufacturing sector.”  

Netherlands, The Markit Manufacturing PMI dipped from previous 52.9 to 50.5 in March

The Aussie may enter a near-term rangebound, consolidation mood in the coming sessions, with the AUD/USD pair corridor between 0.6000 and 0.6200, in t

The Aussie may enter a near-term rangebound, consolidation mood in the coming sessions, with the AUD/USD pair corridor between 0.6000 and 0.6200, in the opinion of Terence Wu from OCBC Bank. Key quotes “Short-term implied valuations extended higher even as the spot AUD/USD stalled below the 0.6200 level.”  “Near-term consolidation mode for now, though short-term implied valuations point towards further upside.”  “Prefer a wait-and-see attitude for now, with the pair still book-ended by 0.6000 and 0.6200.”  

A stronger USD weighed on gold futures, despite demand remaining strong in the physical market, strategists at ANZ Bank apprise. Key quotes “Sentiment

A stronger USD weighed on gold futures, despite demand remaining strong in the physical market, strategists at ANZ Bank apprise. Key quotes “Sentiment wasn’t helped by news that Russia’s central bank, one of the biggest buyers of gold, would stop purchasing the precious metal on Wednesday.”  “Dislocations in the physical market also suggests they may be ready to help alleviate the tightness.”  

AUD/USD has reached its 55 day ma, where it will ideally fail, according to Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank. Ke

AUD/USD has reached its 55 day ma, where it will ideally fail, according to Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank. Key quotes “Currently the daily Elliott wave count is implying a recovery to 0.6275 and possibly even 0.6450. However, the intraday Elliott wave counts are much more negative and imply that the correction may halt around here and for now we have reinstated short positions.” “Attention reverts to 0.5873 and this guards the 0.5530 1998 low.”  

GBP/USD had good two-way price swings on Tuesday amid the intraday USD volatility. Haresh Menghani, an analyst at FXStreet, takes a look at the cable

GBP/USD had good two-way price swings on Tuesday amid the intraday USD volatility. Haresh Menghani, an analyst at FXStreet, takes a look at the cable technical picture. Key quotes “The overnight bounce points to persistent buying interest at lower levels and thus warrant some caution before positioning aggressively for any further near-term depreciating move.” “The 1.2300 round-figure mark (50% Fibo.) now seems to protect the immediate downside, which if broken might accelerate the slide back towards the overnight swing low, around the 1.2245-40 region.”  “Momentum back above the 1.2420 region might continue to confront some fresh supply ahead of the key 1.2500 psychological mark.”  

Reuters is out with the latest comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau, as he says that “gi

Reuters is out with the latest comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau, as he says that “given low inflation, we must keep interest rates low.” Additional comments It is very good if Europe does more on joint-borrowing like coronabonds. But crisis response has already gone further than in the past. EUR/USD: No reason to continue the uptrend German Retail Sales jump 1.2% MoM in Feb, a big beat

EUR/USD has no reason to continue the uptrend as almost everything is pointing lower, Yohay Elam, an analyst at FXStreet, reports. Key quotes “The dis

EUR/USD has no reason to continue the uptrend as almost everything is pointing lower, Yohay Elam, an analyst at FXStreet, reports. Key quotes “The disease is infecting relations within the bloc. The lack of unity in the European Union is weighing on the common currency. “In the US, there are no reasons to be cheerful. However, after the end-of-quarter storm passed, the greenback has room to gain ground on safe-haven flows while stocks suffer.” “Economists expect ADP’s labor market report to show a loss of 150,000 private sector positions. The publication is set to rock markets.” “The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index will provide a snapshot of the sector. Investors brace for a relatively moderate fall from 50.1 to 45 points.”  

AUD/USD extends its bearish momentum into Europe and prints a new two-day low below 0.6100, having faced rejection near 0.6160 region in early Asia. T

AUD/USD sees aggressive selling as risk-off gathers steam in EuropeSolid jump in China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI ignored.Coronavirus news flows, dollar dynamics and key US data in focus. AUD/USD extends its bearish momentum into Europe and prints a new two-day low below 0.6100, having faced rejection near 0.6160 region in early Asia. S&P: Major Aussie banks not at risk of downgrade amid pandemic The bears gathered steam in early European trading after a renewed risk-aversion wave gripped the markets, as the ongoing concerns over the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on the global economy extend into a new quarter. The US equity futures extended losses alongside the Treasury yields while European stock futures are down over 3% pointing to a negative start on the European indices. Amid increased demand for havens, the US dollar is seen benefitting across the board, further aggravating the downside in the Aussie. The US dollar index bounced-off the 99.00 support area to now trade at 99.25, daily highs. The fears over the coronavirus crisis seem to outweigh the surprise delivered by the Chinese Manufacturing Sector data released earlier today. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI arrived at 50.1 in March vs. 46 expected and 40.3 last. Looking ahead, the dollar demand and coronavirus-led risk play will continue to influence the Aussie’s price moves. Markets also await the US ADP Employment Change and US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for fresh trading impetus. AUD/USD technical levels to watch  

CME Group’s flash prints for GBP futures markets noted investors trimmed their open interest positions by around 1.6K contracts on Tuesday, reaching t

CME Group’s flash prints for GBP futures markets noted investors trimmed their open interest positions by around 1.6K contracts on Tuesday, reaching the fifth consecutive drop. On the other hand, volume extended the choppy activity and rose by around 22.5K contracts. GBP/USD remains capped by 1.2500Cable stays side-lined in the upper end of the recent range, although the upside is still capped by the 1.2500 neighbourhood. Inconclusive performance in open interest and volume allows for the continuation of the consolidative mood, at least in the near term.

GBP/USD is consolidating below the 61.8% retracement at 1.2516 and the 200-day ma at 1.2661, Karen Jones from Commerzbank reports. Key quotes “Current

GBP/USD is consolidating below the 61.8% retracement at 1.2516 and the 200-day ma at 1.2661, Karen Jones from Commerzbank reports. Key quotes “Currently the market is indicated to fail at 1.2516, both on the daily chart and the intraday charts.”  “Nearby support lies at 1.2194 and failure here should re-target the 1.1958 September 2019 low.”  “Above 1.2350 lies the 1.2516 61.8% retracement and the 1.2582 20th September high.”  

NZD/USD has softened overnight with some of the blame attributed to month-end rebalancing and part of it just broad USD strength, analysts at ANZ Bank

NZD/USD has softened overnight with some of the blame attributed to month-end rebalancing and part of it just broad USD strength, analysts at ANZ Bank inform. Key quotes “We remain more constructive on the NZD than on many other currencies on the food exporter thematic, but the kiwi has never done well during synchronised global slowdowns and large-scale QE does risk capital outflows.”  “Now that we’ve recaptured the highs and not pressed on, range trading beckons.” “Support 0.5830 Resistance 0.6100”  

Sweden Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing (MoM) came in at 43.2, below expectations (52.4) in March

The US-based ratings agency S&P Global said in its latest report on Wednesday, credit ratings of most Australian banks are not at risk of a downgrade,

The US-based ratings agency S&P Global said in its latest report on Wednesday, credit ratings of most Australian banks are not at risk of a downgrade, in the face of the coronavirus crisis. Key takeaways “Expect credit losses at banks in 2020 to more than triple from 2019 levels as the pandemic disrupts business. Our forecast that the Australian economy will strongly rebound toward the end of the current calendar year following a significant downturn underpins our analysis. Warned of a more severe and longer-lasting downturn, potentially due to a sharp fall in property prices and materially weaker economic outlook, would trigger downgrades for banks.” AUD/USD breaches 0.6100 AUD/USD has come under fresh supply and drops back below the 0.6100 level amid a renewed risk-aversion wave that boosts the haven demand for the greenback across the board. At the press time, the Aussie trades at 0.6080, down 0.86% on the day.

EUR/USD Wednesday’s four-hour chart is painting a mixed picture, according to FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam. Key quotes “Momentum on the four-hour cha

EUR/USD Wednesday’s four-hour chart is painting a mixed picture, according to FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam. Key quotes “Momentum on the four-hour chart has turned negative after several positive days – a bearish sing. On the other hand, EUR/USD has topped the 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages, but only just.” “Resistance awaits at 1.1050, which has separated ranges in mid-March. It is followed by 1.1090, a temporary cap on the way up.” “Some support awaits at 1.10, the confluence of the 100 and 200 SMA. The next cushion is at 1.0930, Tuesday’s low.”  

With the coronavirus pandemic taking a toll on the global financial markets, the upbeat performance of China’s activity numbers failure to convince bu

Asian equities remain under pressure as the virus outbreak turns fierce.China’s Caixin PMI offered positive surprise while following the footsteps of official data.Central bank updates tried to placate traders.NIKKEI down more than 4.0% and so does markets in India, MSCI’s gauge drop 0.80%.With the coronavirus pandemic taking a toll on the global financial markets, the upbeat performance of China’s activity numbers failure to convince buyers. While portraying the pessimism, the MSCI’s gauge of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan drops 0.80% whereas Japan’s NIKKIE declines more than 4.0% amid early Wednesday. Not only grim comments by US President Donald Trump, downbeat forecasts of the US GDP and equity market performances also weighed on the market sentiment during early Asia. In doing so, the risk-tone paid a little heed to the RBA minutes and BOJ comments, not to forget the latest statements from the Bank Indonesia (BI) policymaker that tried to placate traders, . Further, rising coronavirus (COVID-19) numbers from New York City, Italy and most Asia also contributed to the risk aversion, which in turn exerted downside pressure on equities. Indian benchmarks are down near 4.0% as foreign investors registered biggest sell-off, 30% as per Reuters, for the quarter ended March, while Chinese gauges register mild gains with Caixin PMI above 50.00 level. Stocks in Indonesia, Australia and New Zealand are also on the positive side amid expectations of further easing whereas Hong Kong’s HANG SENG drops more than 2.34% by the press time. While the coronavirus crisis is likely to keep global equities under pressure, today’s US activity numbers and ADP Employment Change will be closely followed for short-term direction.

According to the latest data reported by Germany’s Destatis on Wednesday, the country’s Retail Sales arrived at +1.2% MoM in February versus 0.0% expe

German Retail Sales jump 1.2% MoM in Feb vs. 0.0% expected.Retail Sales rise 6.4% YoY in Feb vs. +1.5% expected.According to the latest data reported by Germany’s Destatis on Wednesday, the country’s Retail Sales arrived at +1.2% MoM in February versus 0.0% expected and +0.9% last. On an annualized basis, the German Retail Sales jumped 6.4% in February versus +1.8% seen in January and +1.5% expected.   more to come ...

Russia HSBC Manufacturing PMI declined to 47.5 in March from previous 48.2

Germany Retail Sales (YoY) above forecasts (1.5%) in February: Actual (6.4%)

Germany Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 1.2%, above expectations (0%) in February

According to World Health Organization’s (WHO) March 31 update, globally, 36,571 have died and 754,948 tested positive. The German disease and epidemi

According to World Health Organization’s (WHO) March 31 update, globally, 36,571 have died and 754,948 tested positive. The German disease and epidemic control center, Robert Koch Institute (RKI), said that the number of confirmed coronavirus cases has risen to 67,366, with a total of 732 deaths reported as of Wednesday.    Cases rose by 5,453 in Germany when compared with the previous day while the death toll climbed by 149. China’s National Health Commission reported on Wednesday, 36 new cases as on Tuesday, down from 48 a day earlier. All but one of the cases were imported, bringing the total number of imported cases to 806. Indonesian government declared a state of emergency on March 31 as the death toll saw a spike to 136 people. The number of confirmed infections stood at  1,528. The financial authorities slashed the GDP growth estimate to 2.3%, in the wake of the virus impact. Japanese confirmed cases topped 2,000, and public broadcaster NHK said 78 cases in Tokyo took its tally of infections past 500. Media reports said 7 people in the city had died, five at one hospital. The government is not yet decided on a lockdown measure. The total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Australia reached 4711 after NSW reported another 150. The death tally rises to 20. The majority of Australia’s coronavirus cases were acquired overseas. New Zealand’s government on Wednesday said there were 61 new cases in the past 24 hours taking the total to 708. They said they will wait to assess whether the lockdown measures are working. Thailand reported 120 new cases and two more deaths on Wednesday. The Health Minister reported that the number of confirmed infections in the country rose to 1,771, with 12 deaths. According to data from the Indian Health Ministry and State governments, COVID-19 has claimed 49 lives as of March 31, As many as 1547 people have tested positive for the coronavirus.

Cable’s upside momentum could lose traction on a breakdown of the 1.2000 mark, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We held th

Cable’s upside momentum could lose traction on a breakdown of the 1.2000 mark, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We held the view yesterday that GBP ‘could drift lower to 1.2300, possibly testing the support at 1.2240’. However, GBP plunged to 1.2241, snapped back up almost immediately and subsequently rose to an overnight high of 1.2471. From here, GBP could edge above Monday’s (30 Mar) high of 1.2484 but a move beyond 1.2550 would come as a surprise. Support is at 1.2350 followed by 1.2310. The 1.2241 low is unlikely to come into the picture for today.” Next 1-3 week: “There is not much to add to the update from last Friday (27 Mar, spot at 1.2200). As highlighted, the current recovery in GBP has scope to extend higher but the prospect for a move beyond 1.2550 is not high. On the downside, only a break of 1.2000 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.1880) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.”

According to advanced figures for EUR futures markets from CME Group, open interest resumed the downside and shrunk by nearly 1.6K contracts on Tuesda

According to advanced figures for EUR futures markets from CME Group, open interest resumed the downside and shrunk by nearly 1.6K contracts on Tuesday. On the other hand, volume increased by around 56.5K contracts following two consecutive pullbacks. EUR/USD expected to keep the rangebound theme Tuesday’s negative price action in EUR/USD was on the back of declining open interest and volume, opening the door for the continuation of the consolidative mood, at least in the short-term horizon. That said, further gains should need to surpass recent tops in the mid-1.1100s.

In an interview with an Italian newspaper on Wednesday, the country Economy Minister Roberto Gualtieri said that the role of the European Central Bank

In an interview with an Italian newspaper on Wednesday, the country Economy Minister Roberto Gualtieri said that the role of the European Central Bank (ECB) in coronavirus emergency is crucial, but Europe also needs a coordinated fiscal policy. Additional quotes Business lobby's estimate of 6% fall in GDP this year is "realistic”. Stimulus package to be approved this month will be "significantly larger" than march one, sufficient to offer support to economy and households for entire length of coronavirus emergency. Use of ESM bailout fund under current mechanisms is not an option. Italy must protect its companies through the virus emergency, also with "new forms of public intervention. EUR/USD reaction EUR/USD bounces-off a dip to 1.1006 and flirts with a daily high of 1.1039, having erased early losses, at the time of writing.

FX Strategists at UOB Group believe EUR/USD could keep the rangebound theme between 1.0840 and 1.1200 in the near term. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We h

FX Strategists at UOB Group believe EUR/USD could keep the rangebound theme between 1.0840 and 1.1200 in the near term. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that ‘upward pressure has dissipated’ and added, ‘the current weakness could extend lower to 1.0970 (next support is at 1.092)’. While our view was not wrong as EUR subsequently dropped to 1.0925, the sharp and strong rebound from the low was unexpected (EUR closed well above the low at 1.1029). The rapid recovery has scope to extend higher but for today, a clear break of 1.1110 appears unlikely (minor resistance is at 1.1065). Support is at 1.0975 followed by 1.0940. The 1.0925 low is likely ‘safe’ for today.” Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to the update from last Friday (27 Mar, spot at 1.1050). As highlighted, while the immediate bias is tilted to the upside, any advance is viewed as part of a broad 1.0840/1.1200 range. The rapid retreat from 1.1149 yesterday reinforces our view and from here, unless EUR breaks below 1.0840, there is still chance for EUR to test the major resistance at 1.1200.”

Australia RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) below expectations (-5.2%) in March: Actual (-10.2%)

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, April 1: Investors are not tricked on April Fool’s Day and are in a gloomy mood. Asian stocks and S&P futu

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, April 1: Investors are not tricked on April Fool’s Day and are in a gloomy mood. Asian stocks and S&P futures are down at the beginning of the second quarter after the first quarter was the worst since 2008. The US dollar is gaining some ground across the board after a volatile close to the quarter. President Donald Trump has issued a grim warning, talking a painful two weeks, while his advisors discussed various estimates of mortalities. Nearly 190,000 people have been infected in the US, with the death toll topping 4,000. The White House is considering cutting tariffs as another easing step. EUR/USD is under pressure as the death tolls in Spain and France continue rising, while infections in Italy seem to level off. Final manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indexes for March are projected to confirm only moderate contraction – yet this is due to a quirk in the methodology that counts delays as a positive factor. Eurozone countries remain at odds over corona-bonds. France, Italy, and Spain want a debt sharing scheme, while Germany and the Netherlands oppose it. GBP/USD is trading below 1.24 after a volatile Tuesday, as the UK continues suffering rapid contagion. Final UK Manufacturing PMI is forecast to show a minor downgrade. US data stand out later in the day. ADP’s private-sector jobs report is set to show a loss of around 150,000 jobs, in a precursor to the official Non-Farm Payrolls report. See ADP Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: The job onslaught beginsLater on, economists expect a considerable fall in March. The Employment Component serves as another hint towards the NFP. See ISM Manufacturing PMI Preview: Markets return first, factories second?In China, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI came out at 50.1, indicating minimal growth and in line with the government’s figures. The statistics failed to cheer markets. Oil prices are hovering around the lows, with WTI trading at the $20 handle. Saudi Arabia and Russia are considering a meeting to discuss petrol prices after launching a price war earlier this year. Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this week. Cryptocurrencies have been on the back foot, with Bitcoin trading around $6,300. More Oil prices are poor predictors of a recession

Despite marking 0.20% profits to 0.8901, EUR/GBP stays below near-term key resistances while heading into the European open on Wednesday.

EUR/GBP snaps six-day losing streak, bounces off the three-week low.Bearish MACD, key resistances stand tall to question the recovery moves.61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 200-day SMA limit near-term downside.Despite marking 0.20% profits to 0.8901, EUR/GBP stays below near-term key resistances while heading into the European open on Wednesday. Among them, a 21-day SMA level of 0.8980 acts as the closest upside barrier ahead of the falling trend line from March 19, currently at 0.9010. Other than the aforementioned resistances, bearish MACD signals and an absence of oversold RSI conditions also question the latest recovery. However, a confluence of 200-day SMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s rise between February 18 and March 19, close to 0.8755/45, becomes the strong support on the downside. Hence, the pair’s latest uptick is less likely to be lasting longer while a bit broader weakness might prevail for a bit more unless testing the key support area. EUR/GBP daily chart Trend: Bearish  

The greenback, when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), is posting decent gains above the 99.00 mark ahead of the opening bell in Euroland on Wednes

DXY looks to reverse Tuesday’s losses, sticks to 99.00.Fed announced a temporary repurchase agreement facility.US March ISM Manufacturing next of relevance in the docket.The greenback, when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), is posting decent gains above the 99.00 mark ahead of the opening bell in Euroland on Wednesday. US Dollar Index focused on COVID-19 headlines, data The index is so far reversing Tuesday’s pullback and manages well to keep business above the key barrier at 99.00 the figure. In fact, quarter/month-end flows kept the buck under pressure in the first half of the week, forcing DXY to fade the initial advance to the vicinity of the key 100.00 mark, or 3-day highs. Further out, and in order to alleviate the recent stress surrounding dollar funding and adding to the measures to fight the impact of the COVID-19 on the economy, the Federal Reserve announced on Tuesday a temporary repurchase agreement facility aimed to foreign central banks, which can now use their Treasuries holdings to liquidate positions. Later in the NA session, the always-significant ISM Manufacturing for the month of March will be in centre stage seconded by the final manufacturing gauge measured by Markit for the same period and the EIA’s weekly report on crude oil supplies. On Tuesday, the Consumer Confidence tracked by the Conference Board surprised to the upside at 120.0 for the month of March, down from February’s 132.6 (revised from 130.7). What to look for around USD DXY has regained the upper hand so far this week after bottoming out in the 98.30 region in past sessions. In addition, the greenback has so far managed to keep business above the key 200-day SMA and therefore maintaining the constructive outlook while re-targeting the triple-digit barrier. However, speculation of extra stimulus carries the potential to undermine the recovery in the buck and thus leaving the upside somewhat limited, all against the backdrop of unremitting concerns around the fallout of the coronavirus. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the index is gaining 0.16% at 99.10 and a breakout of 99.95 (weekly high Mar.31) would aim for 100.49 (78.6% Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 drop) and then 102.99 (2020 high Mar.20). On the other hand, the next support emerges at 98.27 (weekly low Mar.27) seconded by 98.03 (200-day SMA) and then 97.87 (61.8% Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 drop).

FX option expiries for Apr 1 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1000 1.9bn 1.1050 1.0bn 1.1070 1.2bn

FX option expiries for Apr 1 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1000 1.9bn 1.1050 1.0bn 1.1070 1.2bn 1.1079 949m 1.1090 526m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts         1.2345 317m 1.2425 616m - USD/JPY: USD amounts          107.00 1.2bn 107.50 1.4bn 108.00 2.0bn 108.55 425m

The second quarter of 2020 kicked-off on a cautious note, as the risk sentiment remained tepid across the financial markets in Asia this Wednesday, wi

The second quarter of 2020 kicked-off on a cautious note, as the risk sentiment remained tepid across the financial markets in Asia this Wednesday, with the coronavirus outbreak-led fears showed no signs of abating. The new infections continue rising across the globe, with the US, Europe and the UK facing a severe crisis situation. The risk-averse environment is reflective of the declines in the US equity futures and Japanese equities while a rush to the US bonds knocked-off the Treasury yields sharply lower. The US dollar, however, attempted a tepid bounce against its main competitors, with the DXY looking to extend the gains beyond 99.00. Within the G10 currency market, most majors traded within tight ranges, with the Canadian dollar the main loser despite the uptick in oil prices. USD/CAD rose 0.30% to regain 1.4100. Among other commodity currencies, the Aussie and Kiwi traded with mild losses amid weaker Gold prices, as they ignored the expansion in the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI report for March. USD/JPY, on the other hand, staged a solid pullback from 107.25 lows and tested the 108 handle. Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD remained under pressure, as the US dollar picked up bids following the previous slump. The cable tripped back below 1.2400 while EUR/USD managed to defend the 1.1000 level. Main topics in Asia US Pres. Trump: We're going to go through a very tough two weeks New Zealand Treasury forecast at least 10% contraction in Q2 2020 GDP US Pres. Trump: Raised issue of oil prices with Russian President Putin US energy Dept to lease space for energy companies to store crude oil – Reuters BoJ March Tankan: Big Manufacturers index -8 (Reuters poll: -10) S&P 500 Futures drop 1.0%, US treasury yields decline amid risk-off RBA Minutes: No appetite for negative interest rates BoJ Gov Kuroda: If inflation nears 2%, BoJ will need to adjust monetary policy to stabilise prices China Caixin/IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI, March, jumps to 50.1 (vs 40.3 in Feb, poll 45.5) Australian Treasurer Frydenberg calls for global economic “controlled hibernation” Japan PM Abe: Not in a situation to declare an emergency now Japan’s Nishimura: Govt to hold experts' meeting on coronavirus pandemic Wednesday USD/IDR off multi-day highs post-mixed Indonesia's CPI Key focus ahead         Wednesday’s EUR macro calendar is a busy one, with the Final Manufacturing PMI reports from the Euro area dropping in from 0715 GMT onwards. The German and Eurozone PMIs will be published at 0755 GMT and 0800 GMT respectively. Ahead of that, the German Retail Sales will be reported at 0600 GMT. Later in European trading, the UK Final Manufacturing PMI and Eurozone Unemployment Rate will also offer some fresh trading incentives. The NA calendar offers plenty of event risks, kicking-off with the US ADP Employment Change data, at 1215 GMT, followed by US Manufacturing PMI reports due to be published by both Markit and ISM around 1400 GMT. Also, of note remains the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Crude Oil Stocks Change data lined up for release at 1430 GMT. Apart from the macro news, the sentiment will remain driven by the incoming virus-related news flow and dollar trades. EUR/USD: Euro remains on the offer ahead of German retail sales EUR/USD trades in the red ahead of German retail sales and manufacturing data. Investors are likely to hold cash, preferably US dollars, amid the coronavirus-induced economic stalemate worldwide.  GBP/USD drops below 1.2400 as coronavirus woes UK diplomats GBP/USD refrains to respect the previous day’s pullback moves amid coronavirus-led pessimism. UK’s death toll surges 27%, cases jump 14%, police pushed for strict lockdown. US data, virus headlines will be the key. US ADP Employment Change March Preview: The job onslaught begins Private payrolls expected to shrink for the first time in in 10 years. Initial jobless claims indicate continuing massive layoffs. First payrolls numbers with partial virus impact. US Manufacturing PMI March Preview: Markets return first, factories second? Manufacturing contraction expected to continue in March. New orders index forecast to remain positive. Nascent factory revival ended in viral outbreak.            

Despite being choppy inside the 75.30/70 range, currently around 75.55, USD/INR remains on the bulls’ radar during the pre-Europe session on Wednesday

USD/INR remains modestly changed as foreign investors marked selling rout in March.Indian markets registered the worst yearly performance since 2009.Coronavirus cases in India surge to 1,251, death toll above 32.Despite being choppy inside the 75.30/70 range, currently around 75.55, USD/INR remains on the bulls’ radar during the pre-Europe session on Wednesday. The reason could be traced from the Indian markets’ performance, as well as foreign investment data, by the end of their financial year ending in March quarter. As per Reuters, “Foreign institutional investors sold nearly $16 billion worth of equity and debt as of Monday, according to depository data. With a near 30% drop in the quarter ended March, India’s main indexes recorded their worst yearly performance since 2009 and the volatility index shot up to levels last seen during the 2008 financial crisis.” It should also be noted that the 135.20% of fiscal deficit, compared to the government target, as well as rising coronavirus fears also contributed to the pair’s strength. Elsewhere, global policymakers are flashing signs of the worst to come, due to the virus, while also expecting a fierce decline in the key economic indicators during Q2 2020. That said, the market’s risk-tone remains heavy with the US 10-year treasury yields extending declines below 0.70% and Indian equity benchmarks marking more than 2.0% losses by the press time. Given the lack of Indian data, coronavirus headlines can offer immediate direction to the pair ahead of the busy docket in the US. Technical analysis The pair’s trading range between 75.30/70 seems to guard the immediate moves within the broad uptrend.  

Gold has been hit lower at the dying hours of the first quarter, sliding below $1,600 amid end-of-quarter flows. Is it ready to resume its rises? The

Gold has been hit lower at the dying hours of the first quarter, sliding below $1,600 amid end-of-quarter flows. Is it ready to resume its rises? The precious metal may benefit from robust support according to the technicals.   The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that XAU/USD has support at around $1,585, which is the convergence of the Simple Moving Average 50-15m, the SMA 5-15m, and the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day.  Further down, another significant cushion awaits at $1,577, which is where the Bollinger Band 15min-Lower meets the previous 4h-low.  Looking up, the initial hurdle is at $1,591, which is the confluence of the 50-day SMA, the SMA 5-4h, and the BB one-day Middle.  The upside target is $1,607, which is where the Fibonacci 23.6% one-week and the Fibonacci 61.8% one-month.  Here is how it looks on the tool: Confluence Detector The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. This tool assigns a certain amount of “weight” to each indicator, and this “weight” can influence adjacents price levels. These weightings mean that one price level without any indicator or moving average but under the influence of two “strongly weighted” levels accumulate more resistance than their neighbors. In these cases, the tool signals resistance in apparently empty areas. Learn more about Technical Confluence

USD/CHF remains choppy between 0.9600 and 0.9630 ahead of the European session on Wednesday. In doing so, the quote remains below the short-term falli

USD/CHF remains modestly changed after declining below 200-bar SMA.A seven-day-old falling trend line acts as additional resistance.Sellers will look for entry below the three-week-old rising trend line.USD/CHF remains choppy between 0.9600 and 0.9630 ahead of the European session on Wednesday. In doing so, the quote remains below the short-term falling trend line and 200-bar SMA while also staying above an ascending support line since March 09. It should also be noted that the pair’s neutral conditions could also be witnessed in the RSI moves that are in the normal territory inside the 30-70 range. 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the previous month’s upside, around 0.9735 can please buyers if they manage to successfully cross, 200-bar SMA and aforementioned resistance line, respectively near 0.9640 and 0.9670. On the downside, Friday’s low around 0.9500 can question the sellers past-0.9550 support line break ahead of pushing them to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement around 0.9455. USD/CHF four-hour chart Trend: SIdeways  

Indonesia’s annual inflation rate softened slightly in March, according to the latest data published by Statistics Indonesia on Wednesday. Indonesian

Indonesia’s annual inflation rate softened slightly in March, according to the latest data published by Statistics Indonesia on Wednesday. Indonesian March’s inflation rate dropped to 2.96% on the year, compared with February’s 2.98% and 2.96% expectations but remained between the Bank Indonesia’s (BI) 2.5-4.5% target range. The annualized core figure arrived at 2.87% vs. 2.76% previous and 2.79% expected. Meanwhile, the monthly inflation reading for March came in at +0.10% vs. +0.14% expected and +0.28% last. About Indonesia’s CPI The Inflation index released by the Statistics Indonesia is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of the Indonesian Rupiah is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is used as a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Rupiah, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish). USD/IDR reaction  The USD/IDR cross is off the six-day highs of 16,652 and trades near 16,570 region on the mixed Indonesian CPI data release. The Indonesian Rupiah remains undermined by the coronavirus outbreak-led 2020 GDP growth forecast downgrade by the financial authorities. The rupiah failed to take advantage of the upbeat comments by the central bank Governor Warijyo on the exchange rate level. Bank Indonesia’s Warijyo: Current rupiah exchange rate is “adequate”  

Indonesia Core Inflation (YoY) above expectations (2.79%) in March: Actual (2.87%)

Indonesia Inflation (MoM) below forecasts (0.14%) in March: Actual (0.1%)

Indonesia Inflation (YoY) in line with expectations (2.96%) in March

EUR/USD remains on the offer while heading into the London open, as Tuesday's notable recovery from lows near 1.0930 failed to invite stronger buying

EUR/USD trades in the red ahead of German retail sales and manufacturing data. Tuesday's recovery from 1.0930 failed to inspire the bulls in Asia. Investors are likely to hold cash, preferably US dollars, amid the coronavirus-induced economic stalemate worldwide.  EUR/USD remains on the offer while heading into the London open, as Tuesday's notable recovery from lows near 1.0930 failed to invite stronger buying pressure in Asia.  The currency pair faced rejection near 1.0940 during the early Asian trading hours and fell back to 1.010 even though China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which focuses on small and medium-sized export-oriented units, blew past expectations to indicate expansion in the activity in March.  German data eyed The data, due at 06:00 GMT, is forecasted to show consumer spending, as represented by retail sales, rose 1.5% year-on-year in February, following January's 1.8% growth.  Meanwhile, the Markit Manufacturing PMI figure is expected to come in at 45.5, highlighting a slight deterioration from the preliminary estimate of 45.7. A weaker-than-expected data will likely draw offers for the common currency, sending EUR/USD to levels below 1.10.  Across the pond, the US ADP Employment report and the ISM Manufacturing data are scheduled for release. A big miss on expectations may push the greenback lower across the globe. The losses, however, could be short-lived, as the coronavirus outbreak is showing no signs of slowing down with the number of cases in the US rising above 177,000. The number continues to rise in Europe, with Spain and Italy reporting a total of 200,000 cases.  With the economic activity around the globe nearly coming to a standstill, investors are likely to hold cash in the form of US dollars.  Technical levels  

Recently pressured due to the coronavirus (COVID-19), GBP/USD drops to 1.2380 while heading into the London open on Wednesday. With a ‘shocking’ 27% r

GBP/USD refrains to respect the previous day’s pullback moves amid coronavirus-led pessimism.UK’s death toll surges 27%, cases jump 14%, police pushed for strict lockdown.US data, virus headlines will be the key.Recently pressured due to the coronavirus (COVID-19), GBP/USD drops to 1.2380 while heading into the London open on Wednesday. With a ‘shocking’ 27% rise in the deaths due to the deadly virus, not to forget a 14% surge in the cases, the UK’s policymakers are struggling to justify their efforts in taming the pandemic. While updating about the figures, Reuters said, “official figures showed confirmed cases rose 14% between Monday and Tuesday to 25,150 as of Tuesday at 0800 GMT, the third day of increases around that rate - slowing from around 22-24% last Thursday and Friday.” As a result, the UK police are being pushed for stricter measures to make sure that the lockdown goes as planned. The Health Secretary Tim Hancock, as per the BBC, mentioned that Hospitals should use spare laboratory space to test NHS staff in England for coronavirus who are self-isolating. “The advice comes as the government faces growing criticism over a lack of testing for frontline staff,” the news mentioned. Elsewhere, the fears of a double-digit contraction in the US Q2 2020 GDP weighed on the market’s risk-tone during the early Asian session. The UK’s economic calendar is mostly empty and hence coronavirus updates will keep the driver’s seat till the US session. Then, the ADP Employment Change and March month activity numbers from the world’s largest economy will be important to watch. Technical analysis Despite its recent weakness, GBP/USD struggles to carry its strength beyond 21-day SMA while staying below 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March month declines and 200-day SMA.  

Following the comments from the Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Bank Indonesia’s (BI) Governor Perry Warijyo said that the current

Following the comments from the Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Bank Indonesia’s (BI) Governor Perry Warijyo said that the current rupiah exchange rate is "adequate". Further comments Rupiah exchange rate scenarios of 17,500-20,000 a dollar are made to be prevented, not an outlook. Market intervention in spot fx, domestic NDF and bond markets continues. Bought 166 trillion rupiah of bonds. Have injected nearly 300 trillion rupiah to markets through bond buying, cutting reserve requirements and repos. Indonesia has no plan to impose capital control, but may ask exporters to convert earnings into rupiah. Does not plan to ask exporters to convert earnings to rupiah yet, but it has the power to under new regulation. Indonesian FinMin Indrawati: Authorities are prepared for even the worst-case scenario

Japanese Economy minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said on Wednesday, the government is likely to hold experts' meeting on coronavirus today to get update

Japanese Economy minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said on Wednesday, the government is likely to hold experts' meeting on coronavirus today to get update on latest developments on the infection. He Japan was not yet at a stage to declare a state of emergency, downplaying speculation a lockdown of Tokyo could be announced any time soon.

Analysts at JP Morgan Asset Management are of the opinion that it is too early to buy equities as the market remains vulnerable to negative developmen

Analysts at JP Morgan Asset Management are of the opinion that it is too early to buy equities as the market remains vulnerable to negative developments in the coronavirus crisis, according to Bloomberg.  The S&P 500, Wall Street's equity index and a benchmark for global stock markets, rose more than 10 percent last week, engulfing or erasing the preceding week's slide, as the Federal Reserve announced an open-ended asset purchase program and the US Senate passed the unprecedented $2 trillion fiscal stimulus package to contain the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak.  Key quotes "I’m not yet confident in advocating overweight risk assets positions because you’re vulnerable in that scenario to a deterioration of the news on the medical front,” said Hugh Gimber, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. The policy measures have helped but they’re not on their own enough for us to call a definitive bottom in this market. The full extent of damage to corporate profits remains unknown, making it dangerous to turn risk-on. You want to be investing in companies that have the balance sheet flexibility to be able to handle this short-term hit to activity and come out on the other side the strongest. The central banks will help solve the liquidity challenge for corporates, but they can’t help to solve the solvency issue for those more under-pressure names.  

Following its recent pullback from the intraday high of 1.4119, USD/CAD seesaws near 1.4100, up 0.27%, amid the early Wednesday’s trading session. In

USD/CAD remains mildly positive inside a two-week-old descending trend channel.61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 200-bar SMA add to the support below the channel’s lower line.Following its recent pullback from the intraday high of 1.4119, USD/CAD seesaws near 1.4100, up 0.27%, amid the early Wednesday’s trading session. In doing so, the pair remains inside a short-term descending trend channel formation amid bullish MACD. 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the early-March upside, around 1.4150, holds the key for the pair’s further recovery towards the channel’s resistance line, at 1.4330. Though, 1.4345 level comprising 23.6% of Fibonacci retracement adds to the upside barrier. Should there be a clear run-up past-1.4345, the previous month’s high, also the highest levels since early 2016, close to 1.4670, will be on the bulls’ radars ahead of January 2016 top of 1.4690, followed by 1.4700 round-figure. Meanwhile, the pair’s downside can be challenged by the channel’s support line figures near 1.3885 whereas 50% Fibonacci retracement around 1.3990 can offer immediate support. During the pair’s declines below 1.3885, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 200-bar SMA, respectively, near 1.3830 and 1.3735, could challenge the bears. USD/CAD four-hour chart Trend: Bearish  

Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said on Wednesday, the authorities are prepared for even the worst-case scenario, in light of the co

Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said on Wednesday, the authorities are prepared for even the worst-case scenario, in light of the coronavirus pandemic. Additional comments Indonesia has improved protocol to prevent financial crisis amid covid-19 outbreak. Financial authorities see gdp growth at 2.3% in 2020, but may see 0.4% contraction under worse scenario. Household consumption in indonesia seen very week, investment, exports seen plunging. Expecting 10% drop in govt revenue due to weak tax collection, falling commodity prices. Indonesia's scenarios for 2020 budget assumptions include avg rupiah exchange rate at 17,500 to 20,000 a dollar. Indonesia's annual inflation rate assumed in 2020 budget seen at 3.9%-5.1%. Central bank’s purchase of government bonds as stipulated in new rules will be regulated "very carefully". New corporate tax rate of 22% effective in 2020-2021, rate to be cut to 20% in 2022. Indonesia's new regulation includes provision to tax nonresident internet-based companies. Indonesia cuts 2020 GDP forecast to 2.3% USD/IDR reaction USD/IDR is printing a new five-day high at 16,430, up 0.80% on a  daily basis, as the broad US dollar rebound and Indonesian growth forecast downgrade underpin the spot.

Gold is currently trading near $1,585 per ounce, representing a 0.55% gain on the day, having hit a low of $1,566 in the overnight trade. The yellow m

Gold is reporting gains as the dollar is trading in a sideways manner. A break above $1,594 is needed to invalidate the bearish outlook. Gold is currently trading near $1,585 per ounce, representing a 0.55% gain on the day, having hit a low of $1,566 in the overnight trade.  The yellow metal is flashing green alongside a mixed action in the Asian stocks. While Australia's ASX 200 index is up more than 3 percent, stocks in Japan, Hong Kong are trading in the red. Meanwhile, South Korea's Kospi is flat-lined and the shanghai Composite index is adding nearly 0.70 percent.  Meanwhile, the dollar index, gold's biggest nemesis, is sidelined near 99.0, having faced rejection near 100.00 on Tuesday. The index topped out near 103.00 on March 20.  From a technical analysis standpoint, the yellow metal continues to trade below the double top neckline level of $1,594. The bias, therefore, remains bearish. The breakdown confirmed during Tuesday's US trading hours suggests scope for a drop to $1,548.  The bearish case would be invalidated if prices establish a secure foothold above $1,594.  4-hour chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

Indonesia has lowered its forecast for 2020 gross domestic product to 2.3% from 5.3% in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, according to Bloomberg.

Indonesia has lowered its forecast for 2020 gross domestic product to 2.3% from 5.3% in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, according to Bloomberg.  WorldBank said Tuesday that the baseline scenario for Indonesia's growth was 2.1% in 2020, downfrom 5.1% initially projected, if the situation begin to normalize by June, accordign to The Jakarta Post. 

Speaking in parliament on Wednesday, Japanese PM Shinzo Abe reaffirmed that they are not in a situation to declare an emergency now. more to come ...

Speaking in parliament on Wednesday, Japanese PM Shinzo Abe reaffirmed that they are not in a situation to declare an emergency now.   more to come ...

During a virtual meeting of Group of 20 (G20) finance ministers and central bank governors late Tuesday, Australia’s Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said, "

During a virtual meeting of Group of 20 (G20) finance ministers and central bank governors late Tuesday, Australia’s Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said, "first, our priority should be putting the global economy into controlled hibernation while quarantine measures are in place," as cited by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Additional quotes "That is -- finance the global health response, maintain financial stability, minimise job losses, keep businesses going, and ensure the basic needs of the global population are met.” "This includes committing to a G20 fiscal support target, to encourage all economies to act urgently, and send a clear signal to citizens that the G20 is doing whatever it takes." AUD/USD implications The Aussie dollar remains pressured amid mixed market sentiment, although the downside appears cushioned by a big beat on the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data and less dovish RBA minutes. At the time of writing, AUD/USD trades 0.10% lower at 0.6125.

The equity markets are not out of the woods yet and another rout looks imminent, veteran investor Jim Rogers said, according to Bloomberg. The Federal

The equity markets are not out of the woods yet and another rout looks imminent, veteran investor Jim Rogers said, according to Bloomberg.  The Federal Reserve and the US government announced massive monetary and fiscal lifelines last week to contain the fallout from the virus outbreak, helping stall the sell-off in the equity markets. The relief, however, could be temporary, according to Rogers. It also means the path of least resistance for safe havens like gold, yen and Swiss franc is to the higher side.  Key quote I expect in the next couple of years we’re going to have the worst bear market in my lifetime, The impact of the coronavirus on economies will not be over quickly because there’s been a lot of damage. A gigantic amount of debt has been added.  “The Chinese economy is opening again, people are going back to work. Factories, restaurants are opening again. I am looking at life, and life is not such that we are all going to take the bus and take boats again. Rogers is currently holding a lot of cash in US dollars and some Chinese and Russian stocks and is considering investing in Japanese equities.   

Late Tuesday, China’s State Council (Cabinet) announced the extensions of the subsidies and tax breaks for new-energy vehicle purchases. The Council e

Late Tuesday, China’s State Council (Cabinet) announced the extensions of the subsidies and tax breaks for new-energy vehicle purchases. The Council extended subsidies and tax breaks by two years, out to 2022. These measures were announced to support the producers of electric vehicles in China, as the economy fights hard to curtail the coronavirus impact on the economy. USD/CNH Price Analysis: Impending golden cross could yield flag breakout

EUR/USD is closing on the psychological support of 1.10, having faced rejection near 1.1040 in early Asia. The pair created a long-tailed hammer candl

EUR/USD is struggling to post a bullish follow-through to Tuesday's hammer candle. A move above Tuesday's high is needed to revive the immediate bullish case. EUR/USD is closing on the psychological support of 1.10, having faced rejection near 1.1040 in early Asia.  The pair created a long-tailed hammer candle on Tuesday, indicating seller exhaustion or dip demand near 1.0930. So far, however, the bullish follow-through has remained elusive. The pair is currently reporting a 0.15% loss on the day.  A move above Tuesday's high of 1.1053 would validate or confirm the seller exhaustion signaled by Tuesday's candle and shift risk in favor of a break above the March 27 high of 1.1148.  The outlook will remain neutral as long as the pair is trading within Tuesday's range of 1.0927-1.1053. Acceptance under 1.0927 would imply a continuation of the pullback from the recent high of 1.1148 and open the doors to support at 1.0778 (Feb. 20 low).  Daily chartTrend: Neutral Technical levels  

A spokesman of the Japanese Cabinet Office said on Wednesday, “we are not yet in a situation to call a state of emergency.” Our priority is to get cor

A spokesman of the Japanese Cabinet Office said on Wednesday, “we are not yet in a situation to call a state of emergency.” Our priority is to get coronoavirus infections under control, he added. His comments come after Japanese PM Shinzo Abe noted that there have been various requests to stop the movement of people. Meanwhile, Japanese public broadcaster NHK reported earlier today that Tokyo is considering keeping city-operated schools closed through early May, a day after coronavirus infections in the Japanese capital hit a daily record of 78, as cited by Reuters. Tokyo’s education board is scheduled to meet as early as Wednesday to discuss the plan, the Nikkei business daily reported. USD/JPY reaction USD/JPY is bouncing-back towards 108.00, as the yen came under fresh selling pressure on the mixed headlines on the virus situation while broad US dollar rebound also helped. However, the upside may remain capped amid losses in the S&P 500 futures.

Despite growing worries concerning the coronavirus (COVID-19), WTI manages to stay away from the 18-year low, flashed on Monday, while taking rounds t

WTI extends recovery gains, recently off high, amid risk-off markets following heavy API inventory build.China’s Caixin PMI followed the footsteps of official activity data in flashing upbeat marks.The Trump-Putin talk suggested the leaders are concerned over oil prices.EIA data, virus headlines in the spotlight.Despite growing worries concerning the coronavirus (COVID-19), WTI manages to stay away from the 18-year low, flashed on Monday, while taking rounds to $20.50 amid early Wednesday. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI crossed 46.00 forecast and 40.3 prior with 50.1 mark during March. The private data seems to take clues from the latest official figures that suggested a noticeable recovery in Chinese activity numbers. Contrast to Chinese data, private inventory numbers from the US signal a heavy build and weigh on the energy prices. The American Petroleum Institute's (API) Weekly Crude Oil Stock data, published on late-Tuesday in the US, marked a surge of 10.485 million barrels for the week ending March 28 versus the previous draw of -1.25 million barrels. Oil traders can argue that the Trump-Putin call and the US signals to lease space to energy companies as favoring the black gold’s latest pullback. Reuters recently said that the US Department of Energy plans to announce as soon as Wednesday it will allow oil companies to lease space in the emergency oil reserve, as it seeks to comply with President Donald Trump’s directive to fill the facility to capacity, two industry sources said. Even so, the early-Asian warning from US President Donald Trump as well as pessimistic forecasts on the Q2 2020 GDP, due to the coronavirus pandemic, keep weighing on the commodity. Looking forward, the weekly official inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and virus headlines will be the key to watch for near-term direction. Technical analysis Bears keep dominating unless breaking the previous week’s top surrounding $25.20.  

AUD/USD is struggling to draw bids on the back of a better-than-expected China manufacturing data. The currency pair continues to trade in the red nea

AUD/USD holds near session lows after upbeat China Caixin PMI. The anti-risk sentiment seen in equities is likely keeping the AUD under pressure. RBA's minutes said the policymakers have a low appetite for negative rates. AUD/USD is struggling to draw bids on the back of a better-than-expected China manufacturing data. The currency pair continues to trade in the red near 0.6120, having faced rejection at 0.6158 in early Asia.  China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which focuses on small and medium-sized export-oriented units, rose to 50.1 index points in March, beating the estimated rebound to 46.00 from February's 40.3 by a big margin. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. So far, however, the upbeat data has failed to put a bid under the Aussie dollar. The AUD/USD pair is flashing red even though the RBA minutes released early Wednesday showed low appetite among policymakers for negative interest rates. Also, Australia's Building Permits rose 19.9% in February, bettering the estimated growth of 4.5% by a big margin.  Aussie's failure to capitalize on the upbeat data sets could be attributed to signs of risk aversion in the equity markets. At press time, the futures tied to the S&P 500 are reporting a 1.14% drop.  The currency pair suffered losses on Tuesday even though the NBS manufacturing PMI for March printed at 52.00, beating the forecasted figure of 45 by a big margin and up from February's 35.7. The NBS PMI mainly focuses on state-owned enterprises.  Technical levels  

Although China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI followed the footsteps of official activity data, NZD/USD remains on the back foot below 0.6000, currently a

NZD/USD remains below 0.6000, despite the latest bounce, after China data.Downbeat comments from New Zealand Finance Minister, pessimistic calls due to the virus earlier weighed on the pair.A light economic calendar will keep COVID-19 headlines in the drive’s seat.Although China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI followed the footsteps of official activity data, NZD/USD remains on the back foot below 0.6000, currently around 0.5950, during early Wednesday. Read: China Caixin/IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI, March, jumps to 50.1 (vs 40.3 in Feb, poll 45.5) The reason for the pair’s failure to cheer the data from China could be traced from pessimism surrounding the coronavirus (COVID-19). New Zealand (NZ) Treasury spread worries concerning the economic impact of the virus and offered weakness to the Kiwi pair during the early-Asia. In his Parliamentary appearance, NZ Finance Minister Grant Robertson anticipated a yearly contraction of 10% in Q2 2020 GDP as well as a double-digit unemployment rate versus the previous month’s 4.0% mark. Also contributing to the pair’s weakness could be the US President Donald Trump’s indication of tough two weeks and the White House expectations of 100,000 to 240,000 deaths due to the deadly disease. Additionally, numbers suggesting more than 1,000 deaths due to the virus in New York City also strengthened the fears. As a result, the market’s risk-tone remains heavy and exert downside pressure on the pair. While portraying the same, the US 10-year treasury yields drop to 0.661%, down four basis points (bps) whereas Japan’s NIKKEI mark 1.53% losses to 18,630 by the press time. Given the virus headlines’ major impact on the global markets, coupled with a lack of data/events ahead of the US session, investors will keep eyes on the qualitative catalysts for near-term direction. In doing so, the COVID-19 updates will be the key to watch. Technical analysis While 10-day SMA near 0.5875 is on the seller’s radar, buyers will look for entry beyond 21-day SMA, currently around 0.6020.  

We have the next round of Chinese data following yesterday's PMIs in March whereby the manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI returned to above-5

We have the next round of Chinese data following yesterday's PMIs in March whereby the manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI returned to above-50 in March. Today's March Caixin/Markit China Manufacturing PMI arrived as follows: Caixin/Markit China Manufacturing PMI Bounces to 50.1 (vs 40.3 in Feb, poll 45.5). Key notes Production expands in march but new orders, export orders, employment still in contractionary territory. While we are seeing improvements, they could be brief considering the are month-on-month comparisons for survey respondents. However, they are giving some glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel and can be enjoyed by the optimists in the markets, proving some resilience to the yuan and AUD. However, currency action was muted on the release today, priced in. China’s Q2 GDP could contract from -0.4% YoY to -2.1% As for the outlook for the second quarter, analysts at ANZ Bank argued that it continues to be "concerning due to an acute drop in external demand and lacklustre domestic demand." Our model indicates that China’s Q2 GDP could contract from -0.4% YoY to -2.1%, pending on the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. We estimate that the fiscal policy measures will add only 3.6ppt to GDP, which is insufficient to compensate for the growth contraction in H1. However, the situation could be very fluid as the virus outbreak remains unpredictable. Chinese policymakers will likely step up and expand the stimulus programme if needed. Description The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, released by Markit Economics, is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in over 400 private manufacturing sector companies.

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1, above expectations (46) in March

In an interview with the Rheinische Post newspaper, Germany’s Economy Minister Peter Altmaier told the economy faces a major economic shock in the sec

In an interview with the Rheinische Post newspaper, Germany’s Economy Minister Peter Altmaier told the economy faces a major economic shock in the second quarter but may rebound in the second half of this year. Key quotes “The impact will be very noticeable in the months of March, April and May.” “In the second half of the year, we still have the chance for recovery and catch-up effects.”

A BoJ official explained that the March Tankan shows CAPEX remains solid but need to see how coronavirus may impact CAPEX in June Tankan. Key notes Co

A BoJ official explained that the March Tankan shows CAPEX remains solid but need to see how coronavirus may impact CAPEX in June Tankan. Key notes Companies' CAPEX plans for fiscal 2020 may be slashed in June Tankan survey depending on degree of damage from coronavirus
Sentiment among big firms in hotel sector hit worst level since March 2004.
Roughly 70% of replies from firms surveyed in Tankan were collected by March 11.
Big manufacturers sentiment worsened at fastest rate since Dec 2012, big nonmanufacturers index fell at fastest pace since March 2009.
Big car manufacturers index at lowest level since June 2011, big ship manufacturers index at lowest level since March 2004, due to broad effects from coronavirus.

USD/JPY pushed above 108.60 then rolled over to 107.25 before popping in Tokyo as the US dollar picks up the pace through Asia. At the time of writing

USD/JPY remains better offered and a fade on rallies as COVID-19 uncertainty weighs. USD/JPY holding on to the 107 handle by the skin of its teeth.USD/JPY pushed above 108.60 then rolled over to 107.25 before popping in Tokyo as the US dollar picks up the pace through Asia. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading at 107.48 having travelled from a low of 107.25 and a high of 107.76.  COVID-19 crisis remains fluid, yen picking up the bid The COVID-19 crisis is fluid and bouts of risk on are swept up by the bears making for a sell on rallies in a broad downtrend in USD/JPY and equities. The US President Trump was raising the prospects of bringing back a major infrastructure package or some $2trn within the next relief bill while the Democratic House Speaker,  Nancy Pelosi, also stated that the US should start developing and debating the fourth stimulus bill. However, the stimulus plug did little to spur the markets along, swapped in fear and uncertainty.  On Wall Street, the benchmarks closed in the red, ending a volatile quarter – more on that here: Wall Street Close: Benchmarks tumble into manic quarter's end Meanwhile, sticking the theme of stimulus, the US Federal Reserve announced a special repo facility to allow international monetary authorities to access USDs via repurchase agreements for their US treasury holdings, aimed at avoiding both a squeeze on USDs and forced US Treasury sales. This should continue to ease up the bullish pressure on the US dollar and potentially move the ball into the bear's court in USD/JPY as risk-off flows continue to dominate. BoJ Gov Kuroda: If inflation nears 2%, BoJ will need to adjust monetary policy to stabilise pricesElsewhere, the G20 finance ministers and central bankers’ conference call failed to come up with any meaningful conclusions other than committing to prior commitments to respond to COVID-19 and a further meeting on 15 April which keeps the uncertainty rampant in the financial and commodities markets.  Data was a focus again, and it was not pretty in the US. Analysts at ANZ Bank explained: Down: The US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 120.0 in March from 132.6 in February. The expectations index – based on the short-term outlook for income, business and labour market conditions – slumped to 88.2 in March from 108.1, but the present-situation data fell only slightly. Down: The Chicago PMI fell to 47.8 in March, down from 49.0 in February, but the fall was not quite as large as expected. Production and new orders fell, while supplier deliveries gained due to stock-piling behaviour. Down: Inflation in the euro area fell to 0.7% y/y in March – its lowest rate since October. Energy costs fell sharply (-4.3%) while food prices increased, running at 2.4% vs 2.1% the previous month. As for the Japanese latest economic updates, things are not much better:BoJ March Tankan: Big Manufacturers index -8 (Reuters poll: -10)USD/JPY levels        

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0771 versus Tuesday's fix at 7.0851.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0771 versus Tuesday's fix at 7.0851.

GBP/JPY is currently sidelined near 133.40, having failed to take out resistance at 134.47 for the third straight day on Tuesday. That level marks the

GBP/JPY faced rejection at key resistance for the third day on TuesdayThe rising wedge breakdown seen on the 4-hour chart indicates the bears have regained control.  GBP/JPY is currently sidelined near 133.40, having failed to take out resistance at 134.47 for the third straight day on Tuesday.  That level marks the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the sell-off from 144.96 to 123.99 observed during the four weeks to March 19.  The repeated rejection at the Fibonacci resistance followed by a rising wedge breakout on the 4-hour chart indicates the bounce from the recent low of 123.99 has ended and the path of least resistance is to the downside.  The pair could challenge immediate support at 122.75, under which major support is seen at 131.64 (ascending 10-day average).  On the higher side, a convincing break above 134.47 is needed to revive the bullish setup.  4-hour chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

Despite marking losses the previous day, USD/MXN registers 0.2% gains to 23.75 during the Asian session on Wednesday. The pair took a U-turn from 10-d

USD/MXN searches for a clear direction below 10-day SMA, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.21-day SMA limits immediate downside, overbought RSI conditions signal weakness.Despite marking losses the previous day, USD/MXN registers 0.2% gains to 23.75 during the Asian session on Wednesday. The pair took a U-turn from 10-day SMA and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of its March month upside the previous day. Considering the nearly overbought conditions of RSI, the pair is less likely to extend the latest recovery moves and can drop to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level around 23.00 amid further downside. Though, 21-day SMA near 22.67 could question the pair’s declines past-23.00. If at all USD/MXN prices cross 23.95 - 24.00 confluence, 24.60 and 25.00 round-figure could offer intermediate halts to the last week's top, also the record high, near 25.45. USD/MXN forecast chart Trend: Pullback expected  

The AUD/JPY pair is barely moving in response to the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) emergency meeting held on March 18, which said t

AUD/JPY wavers as RBA  minutes say rates could remain low for years. Minutes also said the policymakers have no appetite to use negative rates. Aussie pairs dropped sharply in the first quarter on RBA's dovish move and coronavirus fears.The AUD/JPY pair is barely moving in response to the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) emergency meeting held on March 18, which said the interest rate is likely to stay at very low levels for years.  The minutes added that there will be significant job losses in the months ahead and the monetary and fiscal policies will play an important role in battling the coronavirus-led slowdown.  Even so, the AUD/JPY pair is showing resilience and so far traded in the range of 65.90-65.75. The resilience could be attributed to the statement in the minutes that the policymakers have a low appetite for using negative rates to contain the economic fallout from the virus outbreak. The RBA reduced the cash rate or the official interest rate to zero on March 18 and launched a yield curve control program.  The dovish move and the prospects of a coronavirus-led recession in the Australian and global economy led to a sharp fall in the Aussie pairs in the first quarter. The AUD/JPY pair declined by 76.24 to 59.87 in the first three months of the year.  Technical levels
 

With the latest RBA minutes adding downside pressure on AUD/USD, earlier bearing the burden of mixed data and risk-off, the Aussie pair drops to 0.613

AUD/USD declines even after RBA minutes cited no appetite for negative interest rates.Risk sentiment remains under pressure amid fears of worsening coronavirus pandemic.US President Trump signals fears of tough two weeks, Goldman anticipates a double-digit contraction in the US Q2 2020 GDP.Aussie activity/housing data flashed mixed signals off-late.With the latest RBA minutes adding downside pressure on AUD/USD, earlier bearing the burden of mixed data and risk-off, the Aussie pair drops to 0.6130 amid the early Wednesday. The latest minutes for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) emergency meeting on March 18 suggest the policymakers have no appetite for negative interest rates. The statement also indicated optimism among the RBA monetary policy members as they expect recovery once the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic gets over. Read More: RBA Minutes: No appetite for negative interest rates It’s worth mentioning that the pair ignores the upbeat prints of Aussie Building Permits MoM for February. The housing market indicator surged below 4.5% forecast and -15.3% before 19.9% in its recent release. Before the housing data, Australia’s AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index and Commonwealth Bank (CBA) Manufacturing PMI flashed mixed readings. Not only mixed economics, threats from US President Donald Trump and GDP warnings from Goldman Sachs also weighed on the pair during early-Asia. Further, calls that the New York City crossed 1,000 mark as far as deaths due to the virus are concerned also pushed traders off riskier assets like the Australian dollar. While portraying the risk-off, the US 10-year treasury yields remain weak below 0.70% whereas the US stock futures and Japan’s NIKKEI mark losses more than 1.0% by the press time. Moving on, investors will pay more attention to virus news amid a lack of major data ahead of the US session. Technical analysis Not only 21-day SMA near 0.6160 but the previous day’s high near 0.6215 also question the buyers.  

Australia Building Permits (YoY): -5.8% (February) vs -11.3%

BoJ Govenor Kuroda: If inflation nears 2%, BoJ will need to adjust monetary policy to stabilise prices. More to come...

BoJ Govenor Kuroda: If inflation nears 2%, BoJ will need to adjust monetary policy to stabilise prices. More to come...

Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI meets forecasts (44.8) in March

South Korea Nikkei Markit Manufacturing PMI down to 44.2 in March from previous 48.7

Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI came in at 44.2, below expectations (44.8) in March

The Reserve Bank of Australia is publishing the minutes of its ad hoc meeting on 18 March and have provided colour around the 25bp rate cut and the ad

The Reserve Bank of Australia is publishing the minutes of its ad hoc meeting on 18 March and have provided colour around the 25bp rate cut and the adoption of QE.  RBA Minutes MEMBERS ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE TERM FUNDING SCHEME AND THE THREE-YEAR BOND YIELD TARGET WERE BOTH SIGNIFICANT POLICY DEVELOPMENTS RBA MINUTES - MEMBERS STRONGLY SUPPORTED THE PROPOSED POLICY RESPONSE AS A COMPREHENSIVE PACKAGE RBA MINUTES - IMPORTANT TO EMPHASISE THAT THE BANK EXPECTED A RECOVERY ONCE THE COVID-19 OUTBREAK HAS BEEN CONTAINED More to come...     About the RBA Minutes The report on the Australian Reserve Bank committee meeting is usually released two weeks after the interest rate decision. These minutes contain what was discussed at the meeting, including the different points of view, expectations, elections and votes for the decided monetary policy. A positive outlook on the economy shows a possible rise in interest rates, which means upward pressure for the Australian dollar, on the contrary, a pessimistic outlook is negative and downward for the currency. AUD/USD reaction More to come...  

USD/CNH remains trapped in a bull flag - a bullish continuation pattern, which would accelerate the upward move from the March 9 low of 6.9042 and ope

USD/CNH's daily chart shows a bull flag or a bullish continuation pattern. The impending golden cross suggests scope for a bullish breakout;USD/CNH remains trapped in a bull flag - a bullish continuation pattern, which would accelerate the upward move from the March 9 low of 6.9042 and open the doors for a test of resistance at 7.1956 (September high). A daily close above the top end of the bull flag at 7.1197 would confirm a flag breakout. That looks likely as the 50-day average is trending north, indicating a strengthening of upward momentum and looks set to cross above the 200-day average in a day or two. The resulting golden crossover, a widely-tracked bull market indicator, would be the first since June 2014. Some observers would argue that the golden cross is a lagging indicator. While that is true, the 14-day relative strength index is showing no signs of overbought conditions. The crossover, therefore, could invite stronger buying pressure. At press time, the pair is trading largely unchanged on the day near 7.0910. The probability of the pair confirming a flag breakout on Wednesday would rise if China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which surveys small and medium-sized export-oriented units, prints below estimates. Daily chartTrend: Bullish Technical levels  

Australia Building Permits (MoM) above expectations (4.5%) in February: Actual (19.9%)

While a sustained break below 21/50-day SMAs portrays Gold’s weakness, the yellow metal seesaws around $1,579/78 amid the Asian session on Wednesday.

Gold prices cling to 50% Fibonacci retracement of its March month pullback.The bullion remains weak below the confluence of key SMAs.61.8% Fibonacci retracement, the previous week’s top add to the upside barriers.While a sustained break below 21/50-day SMAs portrays Gold’s weakness, the yellow metal seesaws around $1,579/78 amid the Asian session on Wednesday. The safe-haven currently takes rounds to 50% Fibonacci retracement of its early-March month declines amid bullish MACD. In addition to the said SMA confluence near $1,590/92, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,607 and March 26 high near $1,645 will also challenge the buyers in case of the metal’s fresh upside. Meanwhile, $1,560 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $1,548 can offer immediate support during further weakness, which is quite expected. Should there be a clear weakness below $1,547, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near $1,511 will be the key to watch as a break of which could recall the previous month lows surrounding $1,445. Gold daily chart Trend: Bearish  

Japan Prime Minister Abe has crossed the wires and has said that he wants the economic measures bigger than that of Lehman shock. Key notes More to co

Japan Prime Minister Abe has crossed the wires and has said that he wants the economic measures bigger than that of Lehman shock.  Key notes More to come...

While the increase in the coronavirus numbers from the US and Europe earlier weighed on the market’s risk sentiment, expectations of a double-digit co

Signals of further challenges, due to coronavirus, recently weigh on the market’s risk sentiment.US stock futures follow the footsteps of Wall Street, Treasury yields remain on the back foot below 0.70%.While the increase in the coronavirus numbers from the US and Europe earlier weighed on the market’s risk sentiment, expectations of a double-digit contraction in the US economy and millions to get infected recently heavies the market’s risk catalysts off-late. US President Donald Trump recently cited the fears while saying that the upcoming two weeks will be very tough. "White House officials are projecting between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths in the U.S. with coronavirus fatalities peaking over the next two weeks," said CNBC. Also contributing to the market’s risk-off could be the latest figures of New York City (NYC) deaths due to the virus. As per the update, there are more than 1,000 deaths by the end of Tuesday in NYC due to the deadly disease. That said, futures linked to S&P 500 and Dow Jones mark nearly 1.0% losses by the press time whereas the US 10-year treasury yields decline three basis points to 0.67% as we write. Further to portray the risk-off, Japan’s NIKKEI drops 1.90% to 18,540 as Tokyo opens for trading on Wednesday. Given the recent fears of the virus outbreak in the West, investors will keep eyes on any updates for near-term direction. In doing so, safe-havens like Gold, Japanese yen and the US dollar might be of their choice.

Ireland Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing fell from previous 51.2 to 45.1 in March

BoJ March Tankan has arrived and the Big Manufacturers index came in at -8 (Reuters poll: -10). Key notes Big Manufacturers index three months ahead s

BoJ March Tankan has arrived and the Big Manufacturers index came in at -8 (Reuters poll: -10). Key notes Big Manufacturers index three months ahead seen at -11 (Reuters poll: -14). Big Non-manufacturers index +8 (Reuters poll: +6). Big Non-manufacturers index three months ahead seen at -1 (Reuters poll: +2). Japan big firms see capex +1.8 pct this FY (Reuters poll: -1.1%). Japan small firms see capex -11.7 pct this FY (Reuters poll: -16.3%). Small manufacturers index -15 (Reuters poll: -17). Small manufacturers index three months ahead seen at -29 (Reuters poll: -23). Small non-manufacturers index -1 (Reuters poll: -7). Small non-manufacturers index three months ahead seen at -19 (Reuters poll: -15). Japan big manufacturers see dollar averaging 107.98 yen this FY. More to come...

South Korea Trade Balance climbed from previous $3.98B to $5.04B in March

Japan Tankan Large All Industry Capex above expectations (-1.1%) in 1Q: Actual (1.8%)

Japan Tankan Large All Industry Capex above expectations (-1.1%) in 1Q: Actual (1.6%)

Japan Tankan Non - Manufacturing Outlook below forecasts (2) in 1Q: Actual (-1)

Japan Tankan Non - Manufacturing Index registered at 8 above expectations (6) in 1Q

Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook came in at -11, above forecasts (-14) in 1Q

Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index registered at -8 above expectations (-10) in 1Q

GBP/USD remains mildly changes to 1.2420 during Wednesday’s Asian session. That said, the pair struggles to carry its strength beyond 21-day SMA while

GBP/USD struggles to remain strong beyond 21-day SMA.61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 200-day SMA guard immediate upside.1.2130 holds the key to pair’s declines towards 1.2000 mark.GBP/USD remains mildly changes to 1.2420 during Wednesday’s Asian session. That said, the pair struggles to carry its strength beyond 21-day SMA while staying below 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March month declines and 200-day SMA. Just ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2520, highs marked during late-March, around 1.2485/90, can act as the immediate resistance. Further, a 200-day SMA level of 1.2665 and the early-March low near 1.2740 add to the upside barriers. Alternatively, sellers will seek entry below the confluence of 21-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement, near 1.2315/10. In doing so, 1.2130 could be on their radars as it holds the gate for further weakness towards 1.2000. GBP/USD daily chart Trend: Sideways  

The US Energy Department plans to lease space for energy companies to store crude oil in US strategic petroleum reserve. More to come...

The US Energy Department plans to lease space for energy companies to store crude oil in US strategic petroleum reserve.  More to come...  

Despite bouncing off the intra-day low of 0.5926, NZD/USD marks 0.17% losses while taking rounds to 0.5950/55 amid the early Asian session on Wednesda

NZD/USD remains on the back foot while reversing pullback from the previous day’s low.New Zealand Treasury anticipated a 10% contraction in Q2 2020 GDP.Mixed Aussie data, coronavirus fears exert additional downside pressure.Despite bouncing off the intra-day low of 0.5926, NZD/USD marks 0.17% losses while taking rounds to 0.5950/55 amid the early Asian session on Wednesday. In addition to the on-going fears concerning the coronavirus (COVID-19), downbeat comments from the New Zealand Treasury also weighed on the pair off-late. Earlier during the day, comments from the New Zealand Finance Minister Grant Robertson raised fears of the virus pandemic on the economy. The Treasury not only anticipated a yearly contraction of 10% in Q2 2020 GDP but also expected a double-digit unemployment rate versus the 4.0% latest. Before that, mixed activity numbers from Australia and US President Donald Trump’s threat signaling tough two weeks ahead exerted downside pressure on the pair. The kiwi traders should also know that the Fed offered additional helpline avail short-term US dollar purchases to the global central banks the previous day. It should also be noted that the market’s risk-tone remains under pressure with the S&P 500 Futures following Wall Street’s footsteps and mark losses of near 1.0% by the press time. Moving on, a lack of major data could keep markets looking for virus headlines for fresh impulse. Analysts at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) said, “We remain more constructive on the NZD than on many other currencies on the food exporter thematic, but the NZD has never done well during synchronized global slowdowns and large-scale QE does risk capital outflows.” Technical analysis 21-day SMA near 0.6020 and the recent high around 0.6070 guards the pair’s immediate upside.  

South Korean Finance Minister, Hong Nam-ki, has stated that the impact of the coronavirus outbreak has not materialized for March exports. The Finance

South Korean Finance Minister, Hong Nam-ki, has stated that the impact of the coronavirus outbreak has not materialized for March exports. The Finance Minister said the impact of the outbreak has not yet materialized for March exports, suggesting shipments data could worsen in the coming months. Key notes March per day exports seen shrinking due to production disruptions. Will increase support for tourism, the entertainment industry. More to come...    

AUD/JPY stays under pressure while trading around 65.90 amid the early Asian session on Wednesday. Even so, a confluence of 100-bar SMA and 50% Fibona

AUD/JPY remains on the back foot after breaking a one-week-old rising channel the previous day.100-bar SMA, 50% Fibonacci retracement questions the pair’s immediate declines.A horizontal area comprising highs marked from March 12 can question buyers during the pullback.AUD/JPY stays under pressure while trading around 65.90 amid the early Asian session on Wednesday. Even so, a confluence of 100-bar SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement of its declines from March 03 seems to limit the pair’s immediate declines. In addition to 65.70 support confluence, high marked on March 20 near 65.60 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near 64.30 also questions the bears. However, bearish MACD and a sustained downside below short-term rising channel keep favoring the sellers. Alternatively, buyers not only need to rise back above the said channel’s support, currently around 66.30, but should also clear 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 67.10 and the channel’s resistance line, near 67.80, to register strength in momentum. In doing so, a horizontal area around 67.70, comprising highs marked since March 12, 2020, could offer an intermediate halt. AUD/JPY four-hour chart Trend: Bearish  

Australia Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI declined to 49.7 in March from previous 50.1

While giving details of his call with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, US President Donald Trump recently cleared that his call was about oil prices and

While giving details of his call with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, US President Donald Trump recently cleared that his call was about oil prices and that they’re hurting the industry. Key quotes Oil prices are helping airlines. Oil prices are hurting the industry. He also spoke with the Saudi crown prince about oil prices. Market implications Oil traders paid a little heed to the news as updates on the call were already out on Tuesday. That said, WTI remains under pressure around $19.80 by the press time.

While revising its forecast for the US real GDP, Goldman Sachs recently mentioned, “We now forecast real GDP growth of -9% in Q1 and -34% in Q2 in q/q

While revising its forecast for the US real GDP, Goldman Sachs recently mentioned, “We now forecast real GDP growth of -9% in Q1 and -34% in Q2 in q/q annualized terms.” It’s worth mentioning that the bank earlier estimated -6.0% and -24.00% reductions in the economic output figures. Further, the bank anticipates the unemployment rate rising to 15% by midyear. Market implications The news exerts additional downside pressure on the market’s risk-tone following US President Donald Trump’s expectations of tough times. While portraying the sentiment, S&P 500 Futures drop near 0.90% to 2,540 by the press time.

WTI bounces off fresh 18+ years low while taking rounds to $20.00 amid the early Wednesday morning in Asia. Even so, the energy benchmark remains unde

WTI witnessed mild pullback from the fresh 18-year low.API data registered huge inventory build as multiple US states remain under lockdown.Risk-tone also remains heavy amid fears of tough time due to the coronavirus.WTI bounces off fresh 18+ years low while taking rounds to $20.00 amid the early Wednesday morning in Asia. Even so, the energy benchmark remains under pressure amid increasing supply and likely reduction in demand. The latest catalyst comes from the American Petroleum Institute's (API) Weekly Crude Oil Stock data that surged by 10.485 million barrels for the week ending March 28 versus the previous draw of -1.25 million barrels. Also contributing to the black gold’s weakness could be March output data for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). As per the Reuters, the cartel marked an increase of 90,000 barrels per day (bpd) in output to 27.93 million bpd in March. Not only supply increase but fears of demand reduction, mainly due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) also exert downside pressure on the oil prices. The increase in the numbers of cases from the US and Europe join the latest threat by US President Donald Trump weigh on market’s risk-tone. That said, the US 10-year treasury yields and Wall Street closed Tuesday on the negative side whereas the US stock futures are flashing losses near to 1.0% by the press time. Oil traders will now focus on the official inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on 14:30 GMT, prior 1.623M, for fresh impulse. That doesn’t mean updates concerning the demand-supply matrix and virus news will lose its importance to move the markets. Technical analysis Bears hold the reins unless oil prices cross the previous week’s top surrounding $25.20.  

Early Wednesday morning in Asia, news crossed wires that New Zealand Treasury anticipates, while speaking in the Parliament, at least 10% contraction

Early Wednesday morning in Asia, news crossed wires that New Zealand Treasury anticipates, while speaking in the Parliament, at least 10% contraction in the second quarter (Q2) GDP YoY figures. FX implications In a reaction to the news, NZD/USD stepped back from 0.5975 to 0.5967. The reason for the lack of moves could be traced to the mixed activity numbers from Australia, New Zealand’s largest customer. Additionally, the US dollar also consolidates its latest gains and seems to favor the kiwi pair.

In his latest appearance on Tuesday evening, early Wednesday in Asia, US President Donald Trump issues guidelines for 30-day social distancing while c

In his latest appearance on Tuesday evening, early Wednesday in Asia, US President Donald Trump issues guidelines for 30-day social distancing while citing fears of a surge in the virus cases during the upcoming two weeks. Key quotes We're going to go through a tough two weeks. This is going to be a very painful two weeks. I want all Americans to be prepared for the hard days that lie ahead. We have held back 10,000 ventilators to handle the expected surge. Americans need to respond to the coming situation with an ironclad resolve. FX implications The news exerts additional pressure on the market’s risk-tone but the early Asian session lacks reaction. Even so, Wall Street closed on the negative and the US stock futures are also suggesting further declines by the press time.

AUD/USD takes rounds to the upper end of the latest trading range while flashing 0.6150 as a quote at the start of Wednesday’s Asian session. The pair

AUD/USD seesaws near the upper end of the latest trading range.Aussie, AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index surprised with an uptick.Coronavirus cases rise in the US, defy optimism from the European numbers.Fed announced temporary repo facilities for central banks, China flashed upbeat PMI.AUD/USD takes rounds to the upper end of the latest trading range while flashing 0.6150 as a quote at the start of Wednesday’s Asian session. The pair paid a little heed to Australia’s second-tier activity data in search of more clues from the upcoming figures. Though, coronavirus (COVID-19) figures tame the risk sentiment and caps the quote’s immediate upside. The AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index for March surprised markets with 53.7 figures versus 44.3 prior. The Aussie pair stepped back from the two-week high the previous day as the early-day optimism triggered through upbeat China data/updates waned after disturbing coronavirus (COVID-19) figures from the US and Europe. There are more than 177,000 cases in the US whereas Spain and Italy together register above 200,000 numbers. US President Donald Trump ruled out calls for national lockdown while also signaled to use $2.00 as a fiscal stimulus. Though analysts at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) cite fears while getting approval for such a huge spending plan considering it’s equivalence to 9% of nominal GDP. The Fed also offered another boost to US dollar liquidity in the global markets via repurchase auctions for foreign central banks and other international monetary authorities. On the data side, the US Consumer Confidence fell sharply to 120.0 in March from 132.6 in February whereas Chicago PMI’s declines to 47.8, versus 49.00 prior, was considered smaller than 40.00 forecast. It’s worth mentioning that the US 10-year treasury yields dropped mildly to close Tuesday’s trading around 0.67% whereas Wall Street marked losses at the end of the first quarter (Q1) of 2020. Moving on, Australia’s ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence and Commonwealth Bank (CBA) Manufacturing PMI for March can act as the immediate catalysts whereas the virus news and comments from the US/Aussie policymakers, if any, could offer more clear direction. Technical Analysis A daily closing beyond 0.6200 becomes necessary for the buyers to extend the latest recovery moves, failing to do so can recall 0.6000 round-figure on the charts.  

Gold marked a fresh low on Wall Street during Tuesday's session following a series of offers and despite a risk-off session, (for the most part) and t

Gold slides despite a risk-off end to the quarter in disjointed markets.Stock markets were less volatile but COVID-19 risks dominate in an underbelly of uncertainty. Gold marked a fresh low on Wall Street during Tuesday's session following a series of offers and despite a risk-off session, (for the most part) and the US dollar losing traction into the end of the quarter. Gold is trading at $1,576.70 at the time of writing in early Asia, -2.27% for the prior 24-hour period having travelled from a high of $1,626.55 to a low of $1,573.80.  Stock markets were less volatile than they have been in recent sessions, which weighed on gold to an extent. However, the final result was pretty, representing a manic first quarter to the year. More on that here: Wall Street Close: Benchmarks tumble into manic quarter's endIn a snap-shot, the S&P 500 fell 1%, the DAX lifted 1.2% and the FTSE 100 climbed 1.9% while the bond markets were unfazed by Trump’s fiscal plans and as such, the yields on the US 10-year note fell 6bps to 66bps. Looking to the commodity markets, oil was slightly firmer with WTI adding 2% to USD20.5/bbl. The CRB index, however, remained flat, but that's probably a positive in these markets conditions.  Stimulus measures soothing nerves "Trump said he wants the next phase of fiscal stimulus to include USD2trn to spend on jobs and infrastructure," analysts at ANZ bank noted. "This spending is equivalent to 9% of nominal GDP and it’s doubtful Congress would approve this level of spending. The Federal Reserve has established a temporary repo facility for foreign central banks and other international monetary authorities, which is expected to help smooth the functioning of financial markets." Gold levels             

Australia AiG Performance of Mfg Index up to 53.7 in March from previous 44.3

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