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    Forex News Timeline

    Tuesday, January 22, 2019

    In an interview with CNBC, White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said that reports about the U.S. cancelling a trade planning with China were "not

    In an interview with CNBC, White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said that reports about the U.S. cancelling a trade planning with China were "not true." Commenting on the government shutdown, Kudlow argued that the economy wouldn't be adversely affected but added that the shutdown could impact the "accounting of the GDP." Regarding the Fed's policy outlook, Kudlow said that he liked the word 'patience' from the Fed. 

    New Zealand CPI overview At 21.45 GMT, New Zealand Q4 CPI data is due and it could be a major catalyst in early Asia today following a turbulent risk

    New Zealand CPI overviewAt 21.45 GMT, New Zealand Q4 CPI data is due and it could be a major catalyst in early Asia today following a turbulent risk-off market in North American trade.   Analysts at Westpac expect the data to show a near-flat reading for the quarter but with underlying inflation resilient: "Westpac looks for 0.1%qtr (median 0.0%), which would keep the annual rate at 1.9%. A slide in vegetable prices should play a key role in dampening Q4 inflation (limited impact from fuel) but this comes after a steep 0.9%qtr rise in Q3. If we are correct that core inflation will tick up to 1.6%yr, then the RBNZ will not be concerned by the weak headline reading." Analysts at ANZ Bank also expect headline CPI to be flat in Q4 (RBNZ: +0.2%), with annual inflation slipping from 1.9% to 1.8%. "The headline is set to be dragged down by lower oil and food prices; we’re picking a -0.7% print for tradables inflation, with downside risk. Non-tradables inflation is the more important component; we’re picking +0.4% in line with the RBNZ’s pick, but housing components provide upside risks. While the market is poised to respond to a surprise in either direction, the data reflects where the economy has been. The medium-term outlook for domestic inflation is more troubling. The RBNZ needs to see accelerating GDP growth to achieve a sustained lift in inflation, and the prospect of that is slipping away."How could the data affect NZD/USDGlobal trade tensions are at the core of the market's theme on Tuesday's session in overnight trade which is morphing into a risk-off start in early Asia today, to the detriment to high beta and commodity-FX.  However, as for the antipodes, the Aussie has taken the brunt of it, so far. AUD/NZD is sliding towards hourly S2 and NZD/USD is robust, sitting just shy of where it was 24 hours ago while the greenback loses its appeal as well. "A negative or a widely-expected zero print could weigh, with markets increasingly expecting a more dovish RBNZ tone in February. In our view, the mix of inflation will matter; watch the non-tradable component," analysts at ANZ Bank argued. The downside targets for NZD/USD are located at 0.6650 on a break of the 0.6706 fractal swing low. Key resistance is loacetd at  0.6860.Key notes:NZ: CPI likely to print 1.8%/y - TDSNZ: Recent volatility in fuel prices to have little bearing on Q4 CPI – WestpacAbout NZ CPI:Consumer Price Index released by the Statistics New Zealand is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services . The purchase power of NZD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while a low reading is seen as negative.

    Coming back from the long weekend, major equity indexes in the United States opened the day in the negative territory and continued to push lower as t

    Coming back from the long weekend, major equity indexes in the United States opened the day in the negative territory and continued to push lower as the latest headlines surrounding the U.S. - China trade conflict weighed on the market sentiment that was already sour at the opening bell. Yesterday's data from China, which showed that the economy expanded by its slowest pace in nearly 30 years in 2018, caused investors to stay away from risk-sensitive assets since the start of the week. Furthermore, the record-long U.S. government shutdown at its 32nd day escalates fears over the potential negative impacts on the U.S. economy. In fact, the CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street's fear gauge, is up nearly 18% on the day to reflect the dismal mood. Earlier in the day, several news outlets reported that the Trump administration has cancelled a high-level meeting with Chinese officials that was scheduled to take place at the end of the month amid a disagreement regarding technology transfer to Chinese companies. The trade-sensitive S&P 500 Industrials Index reacted negatively to this development and was last seen losing 2.3% on the day. Additionally, the S&P 500 Communication Services and the S&P 500 Technology indexes, which are sensitive to changes in the risk perception, were erasing 2.27% and 2.08%, respectively. As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.53% on the day, the S&P 500 was dropping 1.7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was losing 2.3%. 

    Gold prices were reversing last week's bearish close as investor concerns over global growth take a grip following the IMF's stark warnings and what a

    Gold was collecting a safe haven bid on Tuesday as the dollar wilted away. Gold is currently trading at $1,284, up from a low of $1,277 and just below the session's high of $1,285. Gold prices were reversing last week's bearish close as investor concerns over global growth take a grip following the IMF's stark warnings and what appears to be a mixed picture when it comes to Sino/US trade relation progress, a hot topic in Davos this week.  IMF Chair Christine Lagarde cut global growth forecast for 2019 to 3.5 percent from 3.7 percent. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, she said that high level of economic risks are accelerating around the globe and cited the U.S.-China trade war, Brexit and China's slowing economy as the main culprits.  Us traders returned from a low on weekend to risk-off markets conditions with futures already in the red. During the course of the day, the dollar wilted from its safe haven highs, losing its appeal due to the US government in its 29th day of partial shutdown and weaker US yields, with the US 10 years -1.91% at 2.7320, at the lower end of the day's range of 2.724/2.780. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, billionaire investor Ray Dalio chastised monetary policymakers for an “inappropriate desire” to tighten faster than the capital markets could handle.  "It is difficult to see what will shake the markets out of their risk-off tone in the near term as lead indicators of growth continue to wane," analysts at ANZ Bank argued. All eyes on Sino/US relations and US government shutdownAll in all, gold's appeal is likely to continue in such an environment but should there be sentiment of a breakthrough with respect to 'The Wall' and the government shutdown, so long as Sino/US trade tensions continue, (U.S. officials canceled preparatory trade talks this week with two Chinese vice ministers, ahead of a higher-level meeting in Washington later this month), the dollar could well find a bid again and stall the progress of the precious metal. However, if the reflation trade dominates, that is not going to be a good environment for the greenback and gold would likely prevail. Gold levelsGold turned around on Tuesday as global markets ran for cover, sending the price back above the 21-D SMA and the closing low at 1277 a dollar above the prior day's low of 1276 which has stolen attention away from the bearish 17th Jan Marubozu Japanese candlestick leaving the price actual in neutral. From a technical outlook, however, the daily MACD is still running negative although RSI is leaning bullish, leaving a mixed outlook.  Support levels: 1279 1273 1269 Resistance levels: 1286 1288 1289

    Analysts at Wells Fargo, took a look at the most recent economic reports and do not believe, the data at present suggests a Eurozone recession is eith

    Analysts at Wells Fargo, took a look at the most recent economic reports and do not believe, the data at present suggests a Eurozone recession is either imminent or inevitable. Key Quotes: “Like ECB President Draghi, we do not (yet) believe these important economic indicators are signaling an approaching Eurozone recession. GDP growth has averaged 0.33% per quarter over the past three quarters, a pace that has been consistent with the Eurozone avoiding recession in the past (Q3 2004-Q1 2005 and Q2 2001 to Q1 2002). Similarly, the December 2018 PMI of 51.1 is not yet at a level that would more clearly and consistently signal an approaching economic downturn, although it is close.” “While some recent indicators are worrying, we do not believe a Eurozone recession is imminent or inevitable. In our view, GDP growth would need to range between 0.1%-0.2% (or slower) per quarter for three or more quarters and the composite PMI would have to remain at or below the 51.0 level for several months before we would become seriously concerned that the Eurozone is either imminently approaching, or in, economic recession.”

    USD/MXN Daily Chart USD/MXN Overview:     Today Last Price: 19.1728     Today Daily change: 0.0143 pips     Today Daily change %: 0.07%     T

    The USD/MXN reached today a fresh weekly high at 19.25 but then pulled back. The retreat found support above 19.10. The greenback continues to rise, correcting after the sharp slide from early December to January 17. The bullish tone eased today, before the 19.30 area. The upside target might be seen at 19.30 (Fibonacci retracement of the recent slide and a horizontal level). A substantial break higher could lead to 19.50, a strong barrier that if reach, should favor a correction, probably back to 19.30. On the flip side, under 19.05 the Mexican peso would gain strength, and under 18.90 a test of December lows could be seen. A daily close under 18.85 is needed to clear the way for a slide to 18.70, the next target. Technical indicators, in a broader perspective still point to the downside but are starting to show exhaustion. USD/MXN Daily Chart USD/MXN Overview:
        Today Last Price: 19.1728
        Today Daily change: 0.0143 pips
        Today Daily change %: 0.07%
        Today Daily Open: 19.1585
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 19.3718
        Daily SMA50: 19.9107
        Daily SMA100: 19.5873
        Daily SMA200: 19.4487
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 19.2075
        Previous Daily Low: 19.0808
        Previous Weekly High: 19.206
        Previous Weekly Low: 18.8767
        Previous Monthly High: 20.658
        Previous Monthly Low: 19.607
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 19.1591
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 19.1292
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 19.0903
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 19.0222
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 18.9636
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 19.2171
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 19.2757
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 19.3438  

    The dominating theme in markets is global growth concerns, weighing on risk appetite and global equity prices. However, the pound staged another impre

    UK shares were pressured on a strong performance in sterling following an upbeat set of employment numbers mingled and despite the optimism that parliament will prevent a no deal Brexit.The FTSE 100 dropped 1% to 6,901.39.Cable climbed 0.6% to 1.2966 in London.The dominating theme in markets is global growth concerns, weighing on risk appetite and global equity prices. However, the pound staged another impressive rally on Tuesday with the BoE theme back in vogue following impressive UK data that has bucked the trend of rather subdued economic activity. The number of people in work rose by 141,000 over the September-November period, relative to the previous three months. Having been virtually flat over the course of last summer, employment growth has shown greater momentum over the past couple of months. Inflationary pressures, when taking in to account the wages growth, brings back the prospects of a hike by the BoE, supporting the case for higher sterling, especially on the sentiment of a soft Brexit and an extension of Article 50 at this juncture. "Regular pay growth matched last month’s post-crisis high of 3.3%. This again emphasises that firms are having to lift wages increasingly rapidly to retain and attract talent," analysts at ING Bank wrote. Brexit delay bill would likely be approved by lawmakersAnalysts at Rabobank explained that a Brexit delay bill has been proposed by a cross-party group of MPs and would extend Article 50 if a deal was not in place by the end of February. "While this would remove the prospect of a hard Brexit, plenty of political uncertainty remains in the UK and this suggests that the coming week or so could be another rocky ride for market sentiment...If it is approved by lawmakers on January 29th, a proposal led by Tory MP Boles and Labour’s Cooper would force PM May to extend Article 50 if she was unsuccessful in finding sufficient parliamentary backing for her Plan B by the end of the next month.   May has been warned that is she were to attempt to block her ministers from supporting this bill, several could resign.  From the perspective of GBP investors, this would remove the most bearish scenario from the table – at least for now.  However, it doesn’t solve the issue of finding a compromise Brexit deal that would provide businesses with the certainty that they need. ”Best and worstIn corporate news, Wood Group was the worst performer due to Exane's downgrade of the stock amid concerns over its accounting. Evraz (EVR) 447.60p -3.49% followed in the top three losers ahead of GVC Holdings (GVC) 689.50p -3.02%.On the flipside, EasyJet was the top performer, reporting a 14% jump in total revenue, a 20% rise in ancillary revenue and a 12% increase in passenger numbers for the first quarter. Ocado Group (OCDO) 914.40p 3.25% followed and Kingfisher (KGF) 222.80p 2.34% came in thereafter. FTSE levelsThe bullish wave has been abruptly ended by the latest price action that has seen the index plummet to below daily pivot points and S3 at 6913, opening a test of the 50-D SMA located at 6869 and prospects for a test of the 23.6% retracement fibo of the late May 2018 decline targeting 6797 fractal 16th Jan swing low. However, there is a series of supportive lows at the Fibo which could prove a tough nut to crack. 

    According to National Bank of Canada analyst Kyle Dahms, point out that  Shipments set to decline in the fourth quarter and that real inventory-to-shi

    According to National Bank of Canada analyst Kyle Dahms, point out that  Shipments set to decline in the fourth quarter and that real inventory-to-shipments ratio reached the highest since the 2008/09 recession. Key Quotes:“Canadian manufacturing shipments came in below expectations in November as sales fell for the first time in three months in the petroleum and coal products segment. Lower production due to maintenance and other work at refineries, combined with lower prices for these products, led to the largest one month decline in over 3 years.”“At the national level, total shipments in November decreased in real terms, while inventory volumes were flat. This should lead to a negative contribution to GDP in November.” “Assuming no change in December, Q4 may break the longest streak of uninterrupted quarterly growth since data collection began in 2002. Still, rising inventories should help offset the impact on GDP.  “Looking further ahead, the situation in the manufacturing sector isn’t much brighter. The inventories to sales ratio is at its highest level since the recession, hardly a precursor for a pick-up in production.”
     

    In response to an earlier report about Trump administration cancelling the meeting with Chinese officials at the end of the month amid lack of progres

    In response to an earlier report about Trump administration cancelling the meeting with Chinese officials at the end of the month amid lack of progress in two key trade issues, the White House said that trade teams of both sides were still in touch. "WH says trade teams "remain in touch in preparation for high level talks with Vice Premier Liu He at the end of this month," CNBC's Washington correspondent Kayla Tausche tweeted out.

    S&P500 daily chart The S&P500 Index is trading in a deep pullback below the 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). S&P500 4-hour chart

    S&P500 daily chartThe S&P500 Index is trading in a deep pullback below the 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs).S&P500 4-hour chartThe S&P500 is above the main SMAs suggesting bullish momentum in the near-term.S&P500 30-minute chartThe market broke below the 2,650.00 support and the 200 SMA suggesting bearish momentum in the near-term.If the market can continue its decline below the 2,620.00 support then bears can target the 2,600.00 figure to the downside.The 2,650.00 level is seen as resistance.Additional key levelsSP 500 Overview:
        Today Last Price: 2631.5
        Today Daily change: -31.75 pips
        Today Daily change %: -1.19%
        Today Daily Open: 2663.25
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 2549.22
        Daily SMA50: 2613.23
        Daily SMA100: 2718.48
        Daily SMA200: 2752
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 2667.25
        Previous Daily Low: 2656.25
        Previous Weekly High: 2677.25
        Previous Weekly Low: 2567.25
        Previous Monthly High: 2813.5
        Previous Monthly Low: 2340.25
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 2663.05
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 2660.45
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 2657.25
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 2651.25
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 2646.25
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 2668.25
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 2673.25
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 2679.25  

    Argentina Trade Balance (MoM): $1.369M (December) vs previous $979M

    The EUR/USD pair rose further during the US session and recently reached at 1.1373 a fresh daily high. At the time of writing, it is flat for the day

    Pair moves higher as the US Dollar turns lower across the board. Reports about US-China trade war pushed equity prices further lower and weakened the greenback. The EUR/USD pair rose further during the US session and recently reached at 1.1373 a fresh daily high. At the time of writing, it is flat for the day around 1.1365. Earlier today, bottomed at 1.1335, the lowest since January 3.  The rebound from the 1.1335 area could signal that a short-term bottom is in place, particularly if the euro manages to rise above 1.1380. Also, a daily close far from the lows could contribute to favor some consolidation with a bullish bias for the next sessions. 
    A retreat from the current level back below 1.1350 would expose the daily low and the negative tone that has been in place over the last two weeks.  The last leg higher on EUR/USD took place despite the slide of the EUR/GBP. The US dollar dropped amid a slide in equity prices and lower US yields. Reports mentioning that Trump’s administration canceled the meeting with Chinese officials following lack of progress on trade issues weakened the greenback further. The Dow Jones is falling 1.45% and the Nasdaq 1.80%. Among currencies, the yen and the pound are outperforming.  EUR/USD Overview:
        Today Last Price: 1.1368
        Today Daily change: -0.0001 pips
        Today Daily change %: -0.01%
        Today Daily Open: 1.1369
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 1.1428
        Daily SMA50: 1.1388
        Daily SMA100: 1.146
        Daily SMA200: 1.1599
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 1.1392
        Previous Daily Low: 1.1357
        Previous Weekly High: 1.1491
        Previous Weekly Low: 1.1353
        Previous Monthly High: 1.1486
        Previous Monthly Low: 1.1269
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1378
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.137
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1353
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1338
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1318
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1388
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1407
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1423  

    USD/JPY has dropped following a scramble out of stocks and the dollar, into US treasuries and safer havens. The cooling Chinese economy, risks to glob

    USD/JPY drops to key support area on global growth concerns.USD/JPY is currently trading at 109.15 as bears seek to take out the 21-D SMA at  109.08 to open the floodgates towards the 107.76 9th Jan swing low as the US dollar loses its safe-haven appeal. USD/JPY has dropped following a scramble out of stocks and the dollar, into US treasuries and safer havens. The cooling Chinese economy, risks to global growth and the US government partial shutdown in its 29th day has sounded the risk-off alarm bells fuelling a bid for the yen and even sterling following upbeat labour market data in the absence of bullish momentum elsewhere.  " UK jobs rose 141k in the three months to November, up from 79k in October. Average hourly earnings (ex-bonuses) rose 3.3% y/y. That was in line with expectations and the fourth month they were above 3.0%. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%," analysts at ANZ Bank reported.  US stocks extended their losses to near session lows after the Financial Times reported that the U.S. turned down China's offer of preparatory discussions while a lack of progress on force technology transfers and potentially far-reaching structural reforms to China's economy appear to be at the nuts and bolts of the current deadlock. While such news would usually fuel a bid in the greenback, the US's partial government shutdown is also becoming a concern in the markets, as it expected to strip the US GDP rate of 0.1% every two weeks that the shutdown continues and will also distort US economic data reports. At the time of writing, the Dow is down -1.55%, S&P 500 is down -1.63% and the Nasdaq is down -1.96%.  At the World Economic Forum in Davos, billionaire investor Ray Dalio chastised monetary policymakers for an “inappropriate desire” to tighten faster than the capital markets could handle. US yields are also lower, with the US 10 years -1.91% at 2.7320, at the lower end of the day's range of 2.724/2.780. "It is difficult to see what will shake the markets out of their risk-off tone in the near term as lead indicators of growth continue to wane," analysts at ANZ Bank argued. USD/JPY levelsAll in all, the yen is capitalising on the fundamentals and a break of 109 handle would be significant. However,  we have the 21-D SMA to conquer first at 109.08 ahead of the 10-D SMA at 108.83. The 38.2% fibo retracement at 108.63 which served as a solid resistance line following the flash crash reversal, but gave out on the sell-off is the last defence for the 107.76 9th Jan swing lows.  DXY has an ATR if 50 pips, so there is still some room to go on the downside should the bears pursue and USD/JPY has an ATR of 80 pips, so a test of the 109 handle is still fesible at this juncture before a significant correction back above 109.32, prior swing low, might come into play.   Analysts Commerzbank argue that intraday Elliott wave counts remain negative and the daily Elliott wave count continues to indicate failure at 110.30: "We would then allow slippage back towards 107.75/50 and possibly the 104.10 spike low. The recent move lower was exhaustive and we suspect that this will hold for now. Above 110.30 will allow for a retest of the 111.38 the 26th October low. Support at 104.63/10 guards the 100.70 Fibonacci support and the 99.00 2016 low. Initial support lies 107.77, 10th January low."

    Citing people briefed on trade negotiations with China, the Financial Times reported that the Trump administration cancelled a planned meeting with Ch

    Citing people briefed on trade negotiations with China, the Financial Times reported that the Trump administration cancelled a planned meeting with Chinese officials later this month amid a lack of progress on two key trade issues. "US officials cancelled this week’s face-to-face meetings with Mr Wang, a vice-minister of commerce, and Mr Liao, a vice-minister of finance, because of a lack of progress on “forced” technology transfers and potentially far-reaching “structural” reforms to China’s economy," the FT wrote. "According to the people briefed on the stalemate, Mr Xi’s negotiators are refusing to alter their long-standing position that foreign companies are not forced to transfer technology to Chinese companies."  Major equity indexes, which were already under pressure, extended losses on this report and the Nasdaq Composite was last down 2% on the day while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were losing 1.45% and 1.53%, respectively.

    USD/JPY daily chart USD/JPY is trading in a deep pullback below the 50, 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). As forecast, USD/JPY retrac

    USD/JPY daily chartUSD/JPY is trading in a deep pullback below the 50, 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs).As forecast, USD/JPY retraced to the 109.40 target. USD/JPY 4-hour chartUSD/JPY is trading below its main 200 SMA.USD/JPY 30-minute chartAs bears broke below the 109.40 support and the 200 SMA, USD/JPY is set to continue the decline to the 109.00 figure.Additional key levelsUSD/JPY Overview:
        Today Last Price: 109.18
        Today Daily change: -0.50 pips
        Today Daily change %: -0.46%
        Today Daily Open: 109.68
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 109.21
        Daily SMA50: 111.45
        Daily SMA100: 112.05
        Daily SMA200: 111.2
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 109.78
        Previous Daily Low: 109.47
        Previous Weekly High: 109.9
        Previous Weekly Low: 107.99
        Previous Monthly High: 113.83
        Previous Monthly Low: 109.55
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 109.66
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 109.59
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 109.51
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 109.34
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 109.21
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 109.81
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 109.94
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 110.11  

    Existing home sales in the US fell 6.4% in December to a 4.99 million-unit pace. Analysts at Wells Fargo, point out that home prices continue to ease

    Existing home sales in the US fell 6.4% in December to a 4.99 million-unit pace. Analysts at Wells Fargo, point out that home prices continue to ease amid softer sales.Key Quotes: “Hopes of lower mortgage rates leading to a noticeable improvement in home sales were dashed during December. Existing home sales for the month broke a two-month string of positive gains and fell 6.4% to a 4.99 million-unit pace, well below expectations and the slowest pace since November 2015.” “Housing market data for the winter months are notoriously difficult to interpret given the unusually large seasonal adjustment factors.”  “There were a few bright spots in December’s report. Inventory levels fell 12.3% to 1.55 million, however increased 6.2% on a year-over-year basis. After declining on a year-over-year basis for 37 consecutive months, inventory levels have now risen in each of the past five months.” “Home prices continued to moderate. The median existing single-family home price rose to $255,200, a 2.9% year-over-year increase. However, the increase marks the slowest increase since 2012. Given the rapid appreciation of prices seen earlier in the cycle, some moderation should benefit homebuyers as mortgage rates will likely continue to gradually trend higher in coming months.”“The partial federal government shutdown, which began on December 22, likely had little impact on existing home sales during the month. However, a prolonged shutdown may cause delays in the mortgage underwriting process, which could potentially weigh on sales in coming months.”

    "We expect no change in BOJ policy at the upcoming meeting. The BOJ could drop signals over prospective - albeit pragmatic- policy tweaks in the comin

    "We expect no change in BOJ policy at the upcoming meeting. The BOJ could drop signals over prospective - albeit pragmatic- policy tweaks in the coming year however," TD Securities analysts argue.Key quotes"Though the CPI outlook will be revised lower, this should not preclude the BOJ from making pragmatic policy changes down the road as financial stability remains a focus. A slower Fed and ECB are notable risks to this view." "With limited scope for action at this meeting, we think USDJPY will remain confined to a broad 105/110 corridor. Equity repatriation and limited follow-through in US rates should keep the pair capped. Over the medium-term, JPY valuations remain attractive and continue to suggest an asymmetric profile skewed towards yen appreciation."

    The price for West Texas Intermediate crude, (WTI), is extending the bearish correction from recent recovery highs at $54.48bbls to a current low of $

    West Texas Intermediate crude is bleeding as geopolitical tensions perk up in Davos and on the street. US benchmarks slide as US Government Shut down concerns kick in, markets are risk off.US dollar also in the hands of the bears, US 10 years down 1.3%.The price for West Texas Intermediate crude, (WTI), is extending the bearish correction from recent recovery highs at $54.48bbls to a current low of $52.07bbls. The warning from the International Monetary Fund and weak economic data out of China that has underlined concerns about global economic growth once again which weighs on the outlook for energy demand, despite the cartel's best efforts to curtail supply this year so far.  The fund said it expects the global economy to grow 3.5% in 2019, down from a previous forecast of 3.7% in October and a growth rate of 3.7% in 2018, blaming Sino/US trade tensions and rising U.S. interest rates. When coupled with the weekend data that showed that China had reported that its economy expanded by just 6.6% in 2018, which was the slowest pace on record since 1990, bears have taken back control as US traders return from a long weekend to pick up and trade deteriorating futures  -  for February delivery, the contract fell $1.93, or 3.6%, to $51.87bbs on the New York Mercantile Exchange. WTI levelsAs well as the weekly hanging man, the charts were printing a daily doji following fresh high at the start of this week with no follow through. That bearish analysis has turned out successful and prices are now en route to the 52 the psychological figure. Below there opens the 23.6% Fibo and confluence of the 13th Jan swing lows at 50.63. RSI is leaning bearishly on the daily time frames but ATR is maxed out for today's session, s chasing the offer may not be the prudent trade at this stage. On profit taking, the upside can target 50% of today's move back to the 53 handle targetting the 15th Jan highs at 53,54.

    Following the decisive recovery it staged in the second half of the previous week, the EUR/GBP pair started the week under pressure and extended its s

    Upbeat labour market data from UK helps GBP gather strength.Economic sentiment continues to deteriorate in the euro area.Brexit uncertainty could help the pair limit its losses.Following the decisive recovery it staged in the second half of the previous week, the EUR/GBP pair started the week under pressure and extended its slide on Tuesday to its lowest level since November 15 at 0.8760. As of writing, the pair was down 0.59% on the day at 0.8765. Earlier today, the data published by the UK's Office for National Statistics showed that the unemployment rate ticked down to 4% in November to better the market expectation of 4.1%. Further details of the report revealed that the average earnings including bonuses and excluding bonuses increased by 3.4% and 3.3%, respectively, to allow the British pound to outperform its major rivals. On the other hand, the ZEW reported that the economic sentiment continued to deteriorate in the euro area in December. Although the same data for Germany showed a modest improvement, the fact that the Current Situation Index plummeted to 27.6 from 45.3 in December didn't allow the shared currency to react positively to the data.  Despite today's price action, however, the pair's losses could remain limited in the near-term as investors are unlikely to make large bets while waiting for fresh Brexit headlines. While speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Brexit Secretary Barclay argued that going back to a second referendum would damage the democracy and reiterated that it will be in both sides' interest to reach an agreement.Key technical levels  The immediate support for the pair aligns at 0.8740 (Nov. 4, 2018, low) ahead of 0.8690 (Nov. 9, 2018, low) and 0.8655 (Nov. 13, 2018, low). On the upside, resistances could be seen at 0.8825 (daily high), 0.8860 (Jan. 21 high) and 0.8920 (20-DMA).

    The GBP/JPY pair kept rising after the beginning of the US session and reached at 141.90 the highest level since last Friday. The pair moved closer to

    Pound rises across the board even on lack of Brexit clarification. GBP/JPY holds bullish tone in the short-term. The GBP/JPY pair kept rising after the beginning of the US session and reached at 141.90 the highest level since last Friday. The pair moved closer to the critical 142.00 area.  Earlier today, bottomed at 140.60 but then turned to the upside. Better-than-expected UK jobs data offered a minor boost to the pound on European hours. Later, the pair kept rising on the back of a stronger pound across the board. It is among the top performers despite the Brexit uncertainty context.  The move higher took place even with a slide of USD/JPY amid risk aversion. The Dow Jones index is falling more than 1%. GBP/JPY Short-term bullish trend intact The pair appears to be ready for another test of the 142.00 after a correction from 142.18 to today’s low. If the pounds managed to break and hold on top of 142.00 more gains seems likely. The next resistance levels are seen at 142.75/80 (Oct 26, Dec 4 low) followed by 143.00.  On the flip side, the key support is located around 140.50. Under that area, the 140.00 handle is expected to be tested. The next critical support is 139.50 (Dec 26 & 28 low / 20-day moving average).    GBP/JPY Overview:
        Today Last Price: 141.74
        Today Daily change: 0.32 pips
        Today Daily change %: 0.23%
        Today Daily Open: 141.42
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 139.47
        Daily SMA50: 142.11
        Daily SMA100: 144.45
        Daily SMA200: 145.48
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 141.54
        Previous Daily Low: 140.69
        Previous Weekly High: 142.22
        Previous Weekly Low: 137.36
        Previous Monthly High: 145.52
        Previous Monthly Low: 138.86
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 141.21
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 141.01
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 140.89
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 140.37
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 140.04
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 141.75
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 142.07
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 142.6  

    EUR/GBP daily chart EUR/GBP is trading in a sideways trend below the 50, 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). EUR/GBP 4-hour chart

    EUR/GBP daily chartEUR/GBP is trading in a sideways trend below the 50, 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs).EUR/GBP 4-hour chartEUR/GBP is trading below its main SMAs as the currency cross is trading at the 2019 lows.EUR/GBP 30-minute chartEUR/GBP bears drove the market to the 0.8760 support as the GBP is gaining strength across the board. As the market is testing last Thursday low, bulls might step in for a run to the 0.8820 level.If 0.8760 support fails to hold prices then a drop to 0.8710 can be on the cards for sellers.Additional key levelsEUR/GBP Overview:
        Today Last Price: 0.8768
        Today Daily change: 49 pips
        Today Daily change %: -0.56%
        Today Daily Open: 0.8817
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 0.8948
        Daily SMA50: 0.8932
        Daily SMA100: 0.8891
        Daily SMA200: 0.8866
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 0.8864
        Previous Daily Low: 0.8806
        Previous Weekly High: 0.8988
        Previous Weekly Low: 0.8764
        Previous Monthly High: 0.9089
        Previous Monthly Low: 0.8863
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.8828
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.8842
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.8795
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.8772
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.8737
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.8852
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.8887
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.891  

    "Amidst the government shutdown, third-party housing numbers are one of the few data sets we are still receiving," ING analysts note and further add:

    "Amidst the government shutdown, third-party housing numbers are one of the few data sets we are still receiving," ING analysts note and further add: "Existing home sales offer further warning signals, but elsewhere, we may be seeing signs of stabilisation and even a potential recovery."Key quotes"Over the past 12 months, we have seen a clear slowing in both existing and new home sales with the stock of unsold supply on the market picking up, too. For new homes, it currently stands at an eight-year high of 7.4 months of sales. Tuesday's steep fall in existing home sales for December to 4.99 million annualised - the lowest since the November 2015 blip - means that it now takes an average 46 days to sell a property." "House prices have tentatively started to respond to this with the national annual rate of inflation slowing to 5% in October versus a peak of 6.8% seen in March last year. The slowdown appears particularly pronounced in cities that have experienced construction booms in recent years, such as the major West Coast cities. This has led to fears that a weakening housing market could become another headwind for the US economy, prompting slower economic activity and a more cautious approach to interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve." "In one sense, the fact that the relationship between residential construction and GDP growth has broken down offers some comfort that we shouldn’t necessarily brace for a broader economic downturn - the former slowing while GDP growth has accelerated. But this is not something that we expect to last for a prolonged period given housing’s important feedback into broader activity and confidence."

    The bears have started to come to terms with the fact that the market is of the mind that Parliament will not allow a hard Brexit to take place. It is

    GBP/USD has been better bid since the meaningful vote on speculation that Brexit will all come good in the end, or not at all. The day's until the lawmaker's decision on a proposal to push back Article 50, led by Tory MP Boles and Labour’s Cooper, are going to be touch and go.Chips are down for a soft Brexit, an extension of Article 50, a second referendum and BoE hiking rates on a positive Brexit outcome for the UK economy. The bears have started to come to terms with the fact that the market is of the mind that Parliament will not allow a hard Brexit to take place. It is apparent that MPs will force PM May to extend Article 50 until the impasse can be resolved and a soft Brexit deal that can be approved in The Commons and finally applied. Hence, when we see strong UK data, it raises the odds of a BoE rate hike once the Brexit dust has settled which would take an undervalued pound sterling much higher and the early birds have been out catching all the worms ever since the meaningful vote.  Indeed, our own Senior analyst at FXStreet, Joseph Trevisani, wrote in A contrarian view on the Brexit vote in Commons and the pound ahead of the vote: "If the Brexit deal fails in Parliament on Tuesday the Remain side will see a leap in hope that will support the sterling. If Brexit passes the relative financial and economic stability will also boost the pound." In a report from Rabobank today, analysts explained that, "GBP has taken some comfort from news that a Brexit delay bill would likely be approved by lawmakers.  This has been proposed by a cross-party group of MPs and would extend Article 50 if a deal was not in place by the end of February.  While this would remove the prospect of a hard Brexit, plenty of political uncertainty remains in the UK and this suggests that the coming week or so could be another rocky ride for market sentiment. ” The report goes on to say, "If it is approved by lawmakers on January 29th, a proposal led by Tory MP Boles and Labour’s Cooper would force PM May to extend Article 50 if she was unsuccessful in finding sufficient parliamentary backing for her Plan B by the end of the next month.  May has been warned that is she was to attempt to block her ministers from supporting this bill, several could resign. From the perspective of GBP investors, this would remove the most bearish scenario from the table – at least for now.  However, it doesn’t solve the issue of finding a compromise Brexit deal that would provide businesses with the certainty that they need."BoE trade in play on strong data from the UK; (Number of people in work rose by 141,000 over the September-November period, relative to the previous three months):Meanwhile, from the data front, we had a highly impressive jobs report for November. Having been virtually flat over the course of last summer, employment growth has shown greater momentum over the past couple of months and the data will arguably be welcomed by the BoE against a backdrop of a rather bleak economic performance otherwise, which makes for a conundrum for the BoE considering inflationary pressures andBrexit risks when taking in to account the wages growth.  "Regular pay growth matched last month’s post-crisis high of 3.3%. This again emphasises that firms are having to lift wages increasingly rapidly to retain and attract talent," analysts at ING Bank wrote.  However, selling opportunities might arise at this juncture, considering there is still plenty of risk out there surrounding Brexit; "UK wage growth continues to be a relative bright spot in an otherwise lacklustre economic story, but the increasing uncertainty surrounding Brexit means the Bank of England is unlikely to hike rates any time soon," analysts at ING Bank argued.  All in all, by the end of January 29th, it seems possible that MPs will have removed the risk of a hard Brexit in March which is positive news for the pound, but at this juncture, there is still plenty of room for fading considering wider market risks.Sino/US trade dispute at core of market riskMeanwhile, markets are on alert considering the global growth story and US government shutdown. US traders are back at their desks and US futures were setting the trading day up for a risk-off session. We have seen some downside in US stocks and a bid in the yen, but sterling is taking the top spot, (GBP/JPY rallied to 141.54). Stocks have tried to stablise but still remain heavy and any more downside in the yen could see cable off a touch with GBP/JPY stalling at this juncture, (long candlestick shadows on bullish attempts meeting supply).  At the core of market risk and indeed conversations in Davos this week is the Sino/US trade dispute.  An article on CNBC reads, "In some 25 years of attending Davos, first with the Wall Street Journal and now at the Atlantic Council, I've never sensed such concern among its attendees about emerging risk: Political, economic, societal and climate. Most crucially, worry is growing over how emerging technologies – and the Sino-U.S. struggle for their commanding heights – will define or disrupt the industries and countries they inhabit," Frederick Kempe, journalist and president & CEO of the Atlantic Council, one of the United States' most influential think tanks on global affairs, said. GBP/USD levelsGBP/JPY bears will aim for the pivot of 141.19 if risk deteriorates. Risk off flows based on Sino/US noise has been supportive of the greenback. If pressured from both sides, GBP/USD could well have met a high at today's run to 1.2969. Bears would look to the 1.2927 last bullish fractal (support and confluence with prior R1 1.2923). The daily pivot is located at 1.2876. 1.2829 is yesterday's swing low. Below 1.2444/25 targets the 78.6% retracement at 1.2109"GBP/USD is easing back from the 1.3000 level and looks set to consolidate near term, we have conflicting intraday Elliott wave count, but for now would allow for slippage to the 1.2775 55 day ma," analysts at Commerzbank wrote, who are actually bullish overall, adding that "the market recently reversed from a 5 month support line. We regard the recent move to 1.2444, charted in January, as the end of the down move and we look for gains to the 200-day ma at 1.3088. Dips will find initial support at the 55-day ma at 1.2775 and 1.2669/62, the August low. Only below 1.2444/25 targets the 78.6% retracement at 1.2109.
    "

    The NZD/USD pair dropped to its lowest level in two weeks at 0.6707 earlier today, but took advantage of the modest selling pressure surrounding the g

    Existing home sales in the U.S. fall sharply in December.Greenback loses strength in the NA session.Risk-aversion limit's NZD's recovery.The NZD/USD pair dropped to its lowest level in two weeks at 0.6707 earlier today, but took advantage of the modest selling pressure surrounding the greenback and turned flat on the day near 0.6730. The risk-off mood on Tuesday weighed on the risk-sensitive currencies such as the NZD. Disappointing macroeconomic data from China and the euro area revived concerns over a global economic slowdown and the IMF lowered its global growth forecast for 2019 by recognizing the worrying signs. Meanwhile, the greenback is having a difficult time extending its rally on Tuesday to help the pair limit its losses. Today's data from the U.S. showed that existing home sales declined by 6.4% in December. In addition to the disappointing data, a more-than-1% drop in the 10-year T-bond yield puts more weight on the greenback's shoulders. The US Dollar Index, which climbed toward the 96.50 area today, was last seen in the negative territory at 96.30. In the early trading hours of the Asian session, Consumer Price Index figures from New Zealand will be looked upon for fresh impetus. Markets estimate the CPI to stay unchanged on a quarterly basis in Q4 and a lower than expected reading could weigh on the kiwi and vice versa.Technical levels to considerThe initial support for the pair aligns at 0.6710 (daily low) ahead of 0.6670 (Jan. 4 low) and 0.6610 (Jan. 3 low). On the upside, resistances could be seen at 0.6740 (Jan. 21 high), 0.6790 (50-DMA) and 0.6850 (Jan. 15 high).

    Data released today showed that manufacturing sales fell 1.4% in November in Canada.  Analysts at RBC Capital Markets point out today’s reports adds t

    Data released today showed that manufacturing sales fell 1.4% in November in Canada.  Analysts at RBC Capital Markets point out today’s reports adds to the evidence that Canadian economic growth will look softer over the next couple of quarters.Key Quotes: “The manufacturing report wasn’t as bad as the big 1.4% nominal sales drop alone implied.  Most of that decline came from a huge 13.8% drop in the petroleum & coal component — about half of which was accounted for by lower prices and the other half at least in part due to ’maintenance and turnaround work’ that will be reversed when production resumes. “ “Excluding the petroleum component, sales were little changed in November — up 0.2% in nominal terms.  Still, 13 of 21 industries posted declines. Excluding price impacts, overall manufacturing sales fell 0.9% month-over-month in November, and were up just 0.4% from a year ago.” “The separately-reported wholesale sales volumes also declined 1.2% in November and the Canada Post strike will temporarily weigh on activity in the month.” “Today’s data adds to the evidence that Canadian economic growth will look softer over the next couple of quarters. We are tracking a 0.1% decline in November GDP and just a 1.1% increase in Q4/18 as a whole.”“We still expect a ’data-dependent’ Bank of Canada will ultimately view more gradual rate hikes as appropriate this year  — but very likely not until confirmation emerges that the expected slow patch over the next couple of quarters is temporary.”

    Oil daily chart Crude oil WTI is in a bear trend below the 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). As forecast, WTI declined as the 53.50 t

    Oil daily chartCrude oil WTI is in a bear trend below the 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs).As forecast, WTI declined as the 53.50 target was hit and exceeded.Oil 4-hour chartWTI bears are testing the 50 SMA.Oil 30-minute chartBears smashed through many support levels and the main SMAs. The next objective for sellers is to attack the 52.00 and 51.50 levels. The main resistance is seen at the 53.00 figure.Additional key levelsWTI Overview:
        Today Last Price: 52.27
        Today Daily change: -1.96 pips
        Today Daily change %: -3.61%
        Today Daily Open: 54.23
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 49.63
        Daily SMA50: 50.88
        Daily SMA100: 59.56
        Daily SMA200: 64.03
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 54.51
        Previous Daily Low: 53.6
        Previous Weekly High: 54.17
        Previous Weekly Low: 50.65
        Previous Monthly High: 54.68
        Previous Monthly Low: 42.45
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 54.16
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 53.95
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 53.72
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 53.2
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 52.81
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 54.63
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 55.02
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 55.54  

    Tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), the greenback has now come under some selling pressure and returned to the 96.35/30 band, close to the 55-day SM

    The index loses some upside momentum and returns to 96.30.Yields of the US 10-year note navigate daily lows near 2.74%.US Existing Home Sales dropped to 4.99M in December.Tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), the greenback has now come under some selling pressure and returned to the 96.35/30 band, close to the 55-day SMA. US Dollar Index offered post-US data After a brief test of fresh 3-week tops in the proximity of 96.50 during early trade, USD-sellers have returned to the markets and are currently dragging the index to the vicinity of daily lows near 96.30, where sits the key 55-day SMA. In addition, poor results from US housing sector are also collaborating with the leg lower in the buck. In fact, Existing Home Sales dropped to 499M units during December from November’s 533M units.What to look for around USDThe US Federal government shutdown is already in its fourth consecutive week and investors have started to gauge its impact on GDP and employment figures during the first quarter. The US and China are expected to resume the trade talks at the end of the month in Washington. Until then, rumours and speculations are expected to run high and should have their saying in the buck’s price action. On the longer run, the potential revision of the Fed’s tightening plans for this year appears to have lost some traction among traders, although this is expected to return to the fore as a key market driver in the medium term.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.02% at 96.34 facing the next resistance at 96.48 (high Jan.22) seconded by 96.61 (55-day SMA) and finally 96.96 (2019 high Jan.2). On the flip side, a breakdown of 96.12 (21-day SMA) would open the door to 95.92 (10-day SMA) and then 95.76 (50% Fibo of the September-December up move).

    In an interview with CNBC at the World Economic Forum in Davos, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said that the Fed's patient attitude was posit

    In an interview with CNBC at the World Economic Forum in Davos, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said that the Fed's patient attitude was positive for the economic growth in the United States. "Politics is having a negative impact on global growth," Lagarde further noted. Source: Reuters.

    "Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 6.4 percent from No

    "Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 6.4 percent from November to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.99 million in December," the National Association of Realtors reported on Tuesday.Key takeaways from the press release Sales are now down 10.3 percent from a year ago. Softer sales in December reflected consumer search processes and contract signing activity in previous months when mortgage rates were higher than today. Now, with mortgage rates lower, some revival in home sales is expected going into spring. The median existing-home price for all housing types in December was $253,600, up 2.9 percent from December 2017.

    EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD is trading in a bear trend below its 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) on the daily chart. EUR/USD 4-hour chart

    EUR/USD daily chartEUR/USD is trading in a bear trend below its 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) on the daily chart.EUR/USD 4-hour chartFiber is trading below the 50, 100 and 200 SMAs near the 2019 lows.EUR/USD 30-minute chartAlthough EUR/USD is making new lows and trading below the main SMAs, there is no conviction in the move down.Euro bulls are set to come back soon with 1.1380, 1.1420 and potentially 1.1460 target to the upside.Additional key levelsEUR/USD Overview:
        Today Last Price: 1.1355
        Today Daily change: -0.0014 pips
        Today Daily change %: -0.12%
        Today Daily Open: 1.1369
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 1.1428
        Daily SMA50: 1.1388
        Daily SMA100: 1.146
        Daily SMA200: 1.1599
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 1.1392
        Previous Daily Low: 1.1357
        Previous Weekly High: 1.1491
        Previous Weekly Low: 1.1353
        Previous Monthly High: 1.1486
        Previous Monthly Low: 1.1269
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1378
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.137
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1353
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1338
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1318
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1388
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1407
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1423  

    Colombia Trade Balance registered at $-920.1M above expectations ($-1033M) in November

    United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) below expectations (5.25M) in December: Actual (4.99M)

    United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) came in at -6.4%, below expectations (-1%) in December

    Following a three-day-long weekend, major equity indexes in the U.S. started the day in the negative territory as escalating concerns over a global ec

    Following a three-day-long weekend, major equity indexes in the U.S. started the day in the negative territory as escalating concerns over a global economic slowdown following yesterday's growth data from China continue to weigh on the sentiment. As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was losing 0.68% on the day while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were down 0.9% and 1.15%, respectively. Among 11 major S&P 500 sectors, industrials and materials both lose more than 1.5% to lead the losses in the early trade. Furthermore, a more-than-2% drop in crude oil prices weighs on the energy sector with the S&P 500 Energy Index falling by 1.4%. The only major sector that's in the positive territory at the moment is the utilities.  Later in the day, markets will be waiting for fresh headlines on the U.S. government shutdown, which is now at a record-long 32 days. Meanwhile, the CBOE Volatility Index is up 4% on the day to reflect the dismal market mood. 

    The softer tone around the Russian currency is picking up further pace on Tuesday and is motivating USD/RUB to advance to daily highs in the 66.60/65

    The Russian currency trims losses around 66.40.Spot moves higher after Monday’s YTD lows near 65.80.Brent tumbles more than 2% and helps with the upside.The softer tone around the Russian currency is picking up further pace on Tuesday and is motivating USD/RUB to advance to daily highs in the 66.60/65 band.USD/RUB looks to oil for directionSpot met a moderate buying interest following yesterday’s new YTD lows in the 65.80 region, in line with the advance of the European reference Brent crude to yearly peaks just above the $63.00 mark per barrel. Prices of Brent crude are deflating today and with them sellers around RUB have returned to the markets, pushing spot higher amidst a broad-based up move in the buck. It will be a fairly busy week in the Russian docket, as GDP figures, Producer Prices, Retail Sales, the jobless rate and the usual report on reserves held by the CBR are expected later in the week.USD/RUB levels to watchAt the moment the pair is gaining 0.09% at 66.41 and a break above 66.60 (10-day SMA) would aim 67.12 (55-day SMA) and then 67.40 (high Jan.9). On the flip side, the immediate support aligns at 65.79 (2019 low Jan.21) followed by 65.52 (low Nov.30 2018) and finally 65.21 (200-day SMA).

      The troy ounce of the precious metal took advantage of the risk-off mood on Tuesday and recovered a portion of the losses that it recorded in the s

      The troy ounce of the precious metal took advantage of the risk-off mood on Tuesday and recovered a portion of the losses that it recorded in the second half of the previous week. However, a broad-based USD strength in the last few hours made it difficult to push higher and the pair met a short-term resistance near $1285. As of writing, the pair was trading near $1282. Although the dismal performance of major European equity indexes allowed the safe-haven gold to gather strength today, the greenback continued to find the demand to cap the pair's gains. Ahead of existing home sales data from the United States, the US Dollar Index is up 0.1% on the day at 96.42. Meanwhile, Wall Street opened lower on Tuesday to show that the risk-off mood continues to dominate the markets. As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were both down 0.7% on the day. Markets will be paying close attention to developments about the U.S. government shutdown and if stock markets fail to stage a recovery later in the day, we could see gold gain traction and push higher.Key technical levelsXAU/USD Overview:
        Today Last Price: 1282.35
        Today Daily change: 6.35 pips
        Today Daily change %: 0.50%
        Today Daily Open: 1276
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 1284.24
        Daily SMA50: 1254.11
        Daily SMA100: 1233.77
        Daily SMA200: 1228.68
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 1283.63
        Previous Daily Low: 1275.9
        Previous Weekly High: 1295.9
        Previous Weekly Low: 1276.2
        Previous Monthly High: 1284.7
        Previous Monthly Low: 1221.39
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1278.85
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1280.68
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 1273.39
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 1270.78
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 1265.66
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 1281.12
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 1286.24
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 1288.85  

       •  Global growth concerns driving investors towards traditional safe-haven currencies.    •  Sliding US bond yields add to the weakness, a modest

       •  Global growth concerns driving investors towards traditional safe-haven currencies.
       •  Sliding US bond yields add to the weakness, a modest USD uptick limit downside.
       •  Investors’ focus remains on the latest BoJ monetary policy update, due on Wednesday.    The USD/JPY pair extended its sideways consolidative price action and was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band near the lower end of its daily trading range.  After yesterday's rather directionless move, the pair met with some fresh supply on Tuesday and now seems to have confirmed a bullish failure just ahead of the key 110.00 psychological mark.  Risk sentiment took a hit after data showed the world’s second-largest economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly three decades last year and the IMF lowered its global growth forecasts for 2019/2020. The risk-off mood was evident from a fresh wave of selling around global equity markets, which was seen underpinning the Japanese Yen's safe-haven demand and prompted some selling on Tuesday. The global flight to safety took some toll off the US Treasury bond yields and further collaborated to the pair's weaker tone, though a modest US Dollar uptick helped limit further downside, at least for the time being. Moreover, traders also seemed reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of the latest BoJ monetary policy update, due to be announced during the Asian session on Wednesday, which might provide some fresh directional impetus.Technical outlookValeria Bednarik, FXStreet's own American Chief Analyst writes: “The USD/JPY pair eases in range, holding on to most of its previous week's gains, and more relevant, above the 61.8% retracement of its daily decline between 111.41 and 105.16 at 109.05. The 4 hours chart indicates that the positive momentum is fading, as technical indicators keep easing within positive levels, now getting close to their midlines.” “The 100 SMA is below the current level but with a mild bearish slope, while the 200 SMA heads firmly lower at around 110.55, also reflecting that bulls are losing conviction. The immediate support is 109.20, with a break below it most likely favoring a decline toward the 108.70/80 price zone,” she added further.
     

    GBP/USD daily chart GBP/USD is evolving in a bear trend below its 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) on the daily chart. GBP/USD 4-hour chart

    GBP/USD daily chartGBP/USD is evolving in a bear trend below its 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) on the daily chart.GBP/USD 4-hour chartCable is above the 50, 100 and 200 SMAs, suggesting a bullish momentum in the medium-term.GBP/USD 30-minute chartGBP/USD is trading above its main SMAs suggesting bullish momentum. The 1.2920 resistance is the level to beat for bulls, a break of the level to the upside could lead to 1.3000 figure.To the downside, support is initially seen at 1.2870 and then at the 1.2820 level.Additional key levelsGBP/USD Overview:
        Today Last Price: 1.2914
        Today Daily change: 0.0020 pips
        Today Daily change %: 0.16%
        Today Daily Open: 1.2894
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 1.2771
        Daily SMA50: 1.2751
        Daily SMA100: 1.2891
        Daily SMA200: 1.3086
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 1.2912
        Previous Daily Low: 1.283
        Previous Weekly High: 1.3002
        Previous Weekly Low: 1.2668
        Previous Monthly High: 1.284
        Previous Monthly Low: 1.2477
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.288
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.2861
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.2845
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2797
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.2764
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.2927
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.296
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3008  

    Mexico Jobless Rate s.a climbed from previous 3.3% to 3.6% in December

    Mexico Jobless Rate came in at 3.4%, above forecasts (3.3%) in December

    The USD/CAD pair gained traction in the last hour as the dismal macroeconomic data releases forced the loonie to weaken against its major rivals. As o

    Both manufacturing sales wholesale sales decline in Canada.US Dollar Index preserves strength in the early NA session.WTI continues to erase last week's gains.The USD/CAD pair gained traction in the last hour as the dismal macroeconomic data releases forced the loonie to weaken against its major rivals. As of writing, the pair was up 0.38 on the day at 1.3340. According to the monthly report published by Statistics Canada, manufacturing sales in Canada decreased by 1.4% on a monthly basis in November following October's 0.1% decline. Furthermore, wholesale sales dropped 1% in the same period to miss the market expectation for a no-change. Additionally, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate erased nearly 2% on Tuesday and fell below $53 to further weigh on the commodity-sensitive loonie. Meanwhile, despite a more-than-1% drop in the 10-year U.S. T-bond yield, the greenback stays strong on Tuesday as investors are waiting for fresh headlines on the U.S. government shutdown. The only data release from the U.S. in the remainder of the day will be the existing home sales, which is expected to decline by 1.2% in December. At the moment, the DXY is up 0.11% on the day at 96.43.Technical levels to considerThe initial resistance for the pair aligns at 1.3385 (50-DMA) ahead of 1.3420 (Dec. 17, 2018, high) and 1.3500 (psychological level/Dec. 18, 2018, high). On the downside, supports could be seen at 1.3300 (daily low), 1.3230 (Jan. 18 low) and 1.3180 (Jan. 9 low).

    According to Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank, GBP has taken some comfort from news that a Brexit delay bill would likely be approved by l

    According to Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank, GBP has taken some comfort from news that a Brexit delay bill would likely be approved by lawmakers. Key Quotes“May has been warned that is she were to attempt to block her ministers from supporting this bill, several could resign.  From the perspective of GBP investors, this would remove the most bearish scenario from the table – at least for now.  However, it doesn’t solve the issue of finding a compromise Brexit deal that would provide businesses with the certainty that they need.” “By the end of January 29th, it is possible that MPs will have removed the risk of a hard Brexit in March.  This is positive news for the pound.  However, if this amendment is passed it would increase the risk political wrangling will continue for months.” “The longer political uncertainty drags on, the greater the impact on the real economy.” “We continue to forecast a move to EUR/GBP 0.87 on a 3 month view.  This assumes that a Brexit deal will be found.”

       •  The pair remained under some selling pressure for the sixth straight session on Tuesday and the slide over the past one week has been along a de

       •  The pair remained under some selling pressure for the sixth straight session on Tuesday and the slide over the past one week has been along a descending trend-channel formation on the 1-hourly chart.   •  Technical indicators on hourly charts maintain their bearish stance and have just started gaining negative traction on the daily chart, clearly pointing a well-established near-term downward trajectory.   •  Moreover, the fact that the pair remains well below important intraday moving averages - 50, 100 & 200-hour SMA, add credence to the bearish outlook and further near-term depreciating move.    •  Hence, a follow-through selling below the 0.6700 handle should open the room for an extension of the recent downfall towards the trend-channel support, currently near the 0.6665-60 region.NZD/USD 1-hourly chartNZD/USD Overview:
        Today Last Price: 0.672
        Today Daily change %: -0.13%
        Today Daily Open: 0.6729
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 0.6747
        Daily SMA50: 0.6797
        Daily SMA100: 0.6689
        Daily SMA200: 0.678
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 0.6756
        Previous Daily Low: 0.6713
        Previous Weekly High: 0.685
        Previous Weekly Low: 0.6727
        Previous Monthly High: 0.697
        Previous Monthly Low: 0.6686
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.6729
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.674
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.6709
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.669
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.6666
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.6752
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.6775
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.6795  

    EUR/USD scope for a test of 200-week SMA EUR/USD continues to grind lower after hitting fresh 2019 highs in the 1.1580 region earlier in the month, l

    The pair extends the downbeat mood and flirts with 1.1350.DXY keeps the firm note and eyes 96.50. Yieds stay sidelined.EMU, Germany Economic Sentiment improve a tad in January.EUR/USD scope for a test of 200-week SMAEUR/USD continues to grind lower after hitting fresh 2019 highs in the 1.1580 region earlier in the month, losing ground in 7 out of the last 9 sessions. The persistent weakness opens the door for a continuation of the leg lower to the key 200-day SMA in the 1.1320 area. Renewed jitters over the deceleration in the global economy appear to have been confirmed after Chinese GDP expanded at the lowest rate in nearly three decades during Q4 2018, all hurting the sentiment around the riskier assets. Earlier in the day, the ZEW Survey showed the Economic Sentiment in Germany and the broader euro area improved a tad for the current month.What to look for around EUR/USDToday’s results from the ZEW Survey brought in some relief to the existing concerns over the ongoing slowdown in the region, although current figures remain far away from optimistic levels. Moving further, EUR is expected to remain under scrutiny ahead of the ECB meeting due later in the week, where President Draghi is expected to deliver a cautious (dovish?) message. In the longer run, fundamentals in the region should remain in centre stage along with the upcoming EU parliamentary elections (May), Italian politics and French social unrest.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is losing 0.12% at 1.1351 and faces the next support at 1.1324 (200-week SMA) seconded by 1.1306 (2019 low Jan.3) and finally 1.1269 (monthly low Dec.14 2018). On the flip side, a break above 1.1380 (55-day SMA) would target 1.1415 (21-day SMA) en route to 1.1442 (38.2% Fibo of the September-November drop).

    "Wholesale sales fell 1.0% in November to $63.0 billion, more than offsetting the 0.7% increase in October," Statistics Canada announced today. Key t

    "Wholesale sales fell 1.0% in November to $63.0 billion, more than offsetting the 0.7% increase in October," Statistics Canada announced today.Key takeaways from the press releaseSales were down in five of seven subsectors, representing about 82% of total wholesale sales. In volume terms, wholesale sales decreased 1.2%. Wholesale inventories increased for the third consecutive month, up 0.7% to $88.9 billion in November.

    "The diffusion index for current general activity at the firm level fell from a revised reading of 6.4 in December to -0.2 in January," the Federal Re

    "The diffusion index for current general activity at the firm level fell from a revised reading of 6.4 in December to -0.2 in January," the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said in its latest Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey on Tuesday. "This is its first negative reading since October 2011; the index has fallen 41 points since November."Key takeaways from the press releaseThe new orders index fell 21 points to -3.1, its first negative reading since February 2013. The sales/revenues index fell 12 points to 3.9 in January.  The full-time employment index fell slightly from a revised reading of 11.8 in December to 9.4 in January.  The prices paid index rose 5 points to 26.3.

    "Manufacturing sales fell 1.4% to $57.3 billion in November, the second consecutive monthly decrease," Statistics Canada reported on Tuesday. Key tak

    "Manufacturing sales fell 1.4% to $57.3 billion in November, the second consecutive monthly decrease," Statistics Canada reported on Tuesday.Key takeaways from the press releaseThe decline in November mainly reflected lower sales of petroleum and coal products. Excluding this industry, manufacturing sales rose 0.2%. Sales of non-durable goods fell 3.4% to $27.2 billion, while sales of durable goods rose 0.5% to $30.1 billion. In volume terms, manufacturing sales decreased 0.9%.

    According to analysts at TD Securities, UK’s labour market in November continued to tighten, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly falling to 4.0% a

    According to analysts at TD Securities, UK’s labour market in November continued to tighten, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly falling to 4.0% and headline wages moving up to 3.4%, a new post crisis high.Key Quotes“Core wages however were stable at 3.3% (with private sector also stable at 3.4%). Jobs growth surprised to the upside at 141k vs 87k expected, led by full-time jobs. Nonetheless, these numbers will be in greater focus in the coming months given the escalation in Brexit risks since November. Still, rising wages alongside weak productivity means that inflationary risks are rising, keeping the MPC’s hawkish bent in place.”

    Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) registered at -1%, below expectations (0%) in November

    Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) below expectations (-0.9%) in November: Actual (-1.4%)

    After staying relatively quiet on Monday, the AUD/USD pair came under a bearish pressure on Tuesday and slumped to its weakest level in 13 days at 0.7

    US Dollar Index clings to daily gains above 96.30.Dismal market sentiment weighs on risk-sensitive currencies.Existing home sales data coming up next from the U.S.After staying relatively quiet on Monday, the AUD/USD pair came under a bearish pressure on Tuesday and slumped to its weakest level in 13 days at 0.7120. As of writing, the pair was down 0.4% on the day at 0.7130. Yesterday's disappointing GDP data from China confirmed the economic slowdown in the worlds second-largest economy and hurt the market sentiment. Although the thin trading conditions amid the holiday in the U.S. didn't allow for sharp movements, major global equity indexes extended their losses on Tuesday and risk-sensitive currencies such as the AUD struggled to find demand.  On the other hand, the greenback took advantage of the dismal market mood and gathered strength against its major rivals with the US Dollar Index pushing higher toward the mid-96 area before going into a consolidation phase ahead of the existing home sales data from the United States. Moreover, markets will be paying close attention to fresh developments surrounding the government shutdown in the U.S. Earlier today, several news outlets reported that Democrats would reject the legislation President Trump is expected to call later today and force the government to remain shut down. Concerns over the potential negative impact of this stalemate on the economy could cause the risk-off mood to continue to dominate the market action in the second half of the day.Key technical levelsThe initial support for the pair aligns at 0.7100 (psychological level) ahead of 0.7035 (Dec. 21, 2018, low) and 0.7000 (psychological level). On the upside, resistances are located at 0.7140 (20-DMA), 0.7170 (50-DMA) and 0.7220 (Jan. 17, high).

       •  Global growth concerns hit risk appetite and underpin CHF’s safe-haven demand.    •  USD held steady near two-week tops and helped limit any me

       •  Global growth concerns hit risk appetite and underpin CHF’s safe-haven demand.
       •  USD held steady near two-week tops and helped limit any meaningful downside.
       •  Absent relevant market moving data might further lead to a subdued trading action.    The USD/CHF pair seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the mid-European session and consolidated its recent gains to near six-week tops. A combination of diverging forces failed to provide any fresh impetus and assist the pair to build on this month's strong up-move from the vicinity of the 0.9700 handle, or over three-month lows. The prevalent risk-off mood, amid growing concerns over the health of the global economy, was seen underpinning the Swiss Franc's relative safe-haven demand and kept a lid on the pair's recent positive momentum.  Meanwhile, the US Dollar held firm near two-week tops, despite haven-driven weakness in the US Treasury bond yields and partly offset the negative factors, which was eventually seen lending some support and further collaborated to the pair's subdued/range-bound price action. It would now be interesting to see if bulls are able to make it through the parity mark or opt to take some profits off the table amid relatively thin US economic docket, featuring the second-tier release of existing home sales data.Technical levels to watchOn a sustained move beyond the 1.00 round figure mark, bulls are likely to aim towards challenging 1.0050 intermediate resistance en-route the 1.0085-90 supply zone. On the flip side, mid-0.9900s now seems to protect the immediate downside, which if broken might prompt some long-unwinding trade and accelerate the slide back towards the very important 200-day SMA support near the 0.9900 handle.
     

    Nordea Markets Analysts at Nordea Markets are expecting the BoJ to keep its monetary policy unchanged in January and maintain its accommodative stanc

    Nordea MarketsAnalysts at Nordea Markets are expecting the BoJ to keep its monetary policy unchanged in January and maintain its accommodative stance.Key Quotes“Protectionism from the US and slowdown in China suppress corporate profits and put Japan’s growth under pressure.” “Inflation is still far from the above 2% target. At the December meeting, the BoJ pledged to keep rates extremely low for an extended period of time. The target for the 10-year government bond yield is expected to remain at around 0% but the BoJ will most likely gradually increase the flexibility of its easing programmes.”WestpacAccording to Robert Rennie, head of FM strategy at Westpac, the BoJ will be the main event for the JPY, though no change in policy is expected.Key Quotes“Given this is a quarterly outlook meeting, it will be what the BoJ does with its forecasts and how it talks to both the domestic and international issues the economy faces. Increasing downside risks to inflation and growth present a challenge to the BOJ.”

    The UK PM Theresa May's Spokesman was out on the wires in the last hour and said that PM will speak to business to provide an update on Brexit later t

    The UK PM Theresa May's Spokesman was out on the wires in the last hour and said that PM will speak to business to provide an update on Brexit later today. Cabinet received a weekly update on no-deal Brexit planning and we will do everything we can to prevent hard border in N. Ireland, the spokesman added further.
     

    Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN AMRO, points out that ECB’s current forward guidance on interest rates is that rates will ‘remain at their pr

    Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN AMRO, points out that ECB’s current forward guidance on interest rates is that rates will ‘remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019.Key Quotes“Given that our forecasts for GDP growth and inflation are well below those of the ECB, we expect the ECB to keep interest rates on hold in 2019. We expect the forward guidance on interest rates to change following further downgrades to the outlook, and we think that the central bank will signal that interest rates will be left on hold through 2019 by the June meeting.” “We expect a 10bp hike in all the policy rates in March 2020 and a second 10bp increase in September 2020. Given the subdued macro environment, we think that the risks are skewed towards even later rate hikes. We do not expect the ECB to end reinvestments until late in 2021.” “Finally, we expect a TLTRO extension to be announced in March 2019. With regard to other policy instruments, ECB president Mario Draghi has mentioned that the ECB intends to keep liquidity as available as it needs to be, that the ECB is aware of the factors that will affect liquidity in the next couple of years, and that it will discuss this at some point in future. We expect the ECB to make changes to the TLTRO programme in March, to allow banks to repay the funds over a longer period than currently.”

       •  Stronger UK wage growth/unexpected dip in unemployment rate provided a minor lift to the GBP.    •  Risk-off mood amid global growth concerns u

       •  Stronger UK wage growth/unexpected dip in unemployment rate provided a minor lift to the GBP.
       •  Risk-off mood amid global growth concerns underpin USD's safe-haven status and cap gains.    The GBP/USD pair struggled to build on its intraday positive momentum and quickly retreated around 30-pips from the 1.2925-30 supply zone. The British Pound remained supported by decreasing likelihood of a no-deal Brexit or a second referendum and helped the pair to reverse an initial dip to 1.2855 level. The uptick was further supported by better than expected UK wage growth data and an unexpected dip in the unemployment rate. Data released by the Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday showed average weekly earnings, including bonuses, hit a new 10-year high and rose by 3.4% 3m/y in the three months to the end of November. Adding to this, the unemployment rate fell to 4.0% in November, beating expectations for it to hold steady at 4.1%. Solid UK jobs report strengthened the case a gradual policy tightening by the Bank of England and provided a minor lift to the British Pound, though the prevalent risk-off mood underpinned the US Dollar's relative safe-haven status and collaborated towards keeping a lid on any runway rally, at least for the time being. Next on tap will be the second-tier release of US existing home sales data but is unlikely to provide any meaningful impetus amid plenty of Brexit uncertainties, especially after the UK PM Theresa May's Brexit Plan B lacked any significant details to prevent customs checks on the Irish border.Technical levels to watchMario Blascak, FXStreet's own European Chief Analyst writes: “While 1.2800 is a short-term target on the downside for GBP/USD, the pair needs to break back below the trendline at 1.2750 to extend the downside towards 1.2610. On the upside, the 1.2900 and 1.2990 remain the immediate targets.”

    Analysts at TD Securities suggest that the release of existing home sales data will be a key economic release for today’s session. Key Quotes “Exist

    Analysts at TD Securities suggest that the release of existing home sales data will be a key economic release for today’s session.Key Quotes“Existing home sales for November will be published at 10:00 ET, with the market consensus looking for a 1.5% m/m decline to an annualized 5.24m units.” “The Fed's blackout period ahead of the January 31st decision commenced over the weekend, ensuring a quiet week for central bank communications.”

       •  The pair has been steadily recovering from the vicinity of 100-day SMA support, or over one-month lows and the up-move has been along an ascendi

       •  The pair has been steadily recovering from the vicinity of 100-day SMA support, or over one-month lows and the up-move has been along an ascending trend-channel on the 1-hourly chart.   •  However, given the recent sharp decline from over 19-month tops, the said channel seems to have constituted towards the formation of a bearish continuation flag chart pattern.USD/CAD 1-hourly chart   •  Moreover, this month's decisive break below 50-EMA/ascending trend-line confluence support adds credence to the bearish set-up and suggests some more downside in the near-term.   •  Despite the negative outlook, traders are likely to wait for a convincing breakthrough the ascending trend-channel support before positioning for additional declines back to sub-1.3200 level.USD/CAD Overview:
        Today Last Price: 1.3329
        Today Daily change %: 0.23%
        Today Daily Open: 1.3298
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 1.3432
        Daily SMA50: 1.337
        Daily SMA100: 1.3205
        Daily SMA200: 1.3105
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 1.3319
        Previous Daily Low: 1.3252
        Previous Weekly High: 1.332
        Previous Weekly Low: 1.3226
        Previous Monthly High: 1.4134
        Previous Monthly Low: 1.316
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3293
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3277
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.326
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.3222
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.3193
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3327
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3356
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3394  

    Prices of the WTI are giving away part of their recent up move to fresh YTD peaks beyond the $54.00 mark per barrel and slip back to the $52.70 region

    Prices of the WTI are trading on the defensive below the $53.00 mark.Prospects of lower global growth weigh on crude oil.\API, EIA report coming up next on Wednesday and Thursday.Prices of the WTI are giving away part of their recent up move to fresh YTD peaks beyond the $54.00 mark per barrel and slip back to the $52.70 region, where sits the 100-hour SMA.WTI hurt by global growth forecastsPrices of the barrel of the American benchmark for the sweet light crude oil have come under some renewed downside pressure in response to recent signs of a global slowdown, particularly stemming from Chinese fundamentals. Reinforcing that view, IMF’s Chief C.Largarde said on Monday that the think tank revised lower its forecasts for global growth to 3.5% (from 3.7%), the lowest level in the last three years. Moving forward, the weekly report on US crude oil supplies by the API is due tomorrow followed by the DoE’s report on Thursday.What to look for around WTIThe ongoing OPEC+ agreement to curb oil output remains the almost exclusive source of support for prices, along with omnipresent supply concerns in Libya and Venezuela while current US sanctions limiting Iranian oil exports and a downtrend in US drilling activity also sustain the optimism around prices. However, the evident slowdown in the Chinese economy coupled with fresh projections of a deceleration in global growth has a direct impact on the demand for crude oil and carries the potential to undermine any serious bullish attempts.WTI significant levelsAt the moment the barrel of WTI is losing 2.13% at $52.72 facing the next support at $52.65 (low Jan.22) seconded by $50.34 (low Jan.14) and then $49.18 (21-day SMA). On the flip side, a breakout of $54.22 (2019 high Jan.21) would aim for $54.48 (monthly high Dec.4) and finally $58.00 (high Nov.18 2018).

    Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN AMRO, points out that the Eurozone’s political landscape in most of the individual eurozone countries has rem

    Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN AMRO, points out that the Eurozone’s political landscape in most of the individual eurozone countries has remained fragmented in 2018.Key Quotes“Traditional political parties at the centre-right or centre-left of the political spectrum have continued to lose support, while populist parties or parties at the extreme side of the political spectrum have gained support.” “As a result, implementing significant policy changes, including policies aimed at further European integration, or meaningful economic reforms has become complicated in a large number of eurozone countries.” “In 2019, general elections are scheduled in Finland (14 April), Belgium (26 May), Portugal (6 October) and Greece (20 October). Moreover, it cannot be excluded that early elections will be held in Italy (currently governed by an all populist coalition of the centre-right Lega and left-wing, populist M5S), Spain (currently governed by a minority government led by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of the centre-left social democratic PSOE, which holds less than 25% of the seats in parliament).”

    Analysts at TD Securities are looking for a 0.4% decline in November manufacturing sales of Canada, slightly above the market consensus for -1.0%. Ke

    Analysts at TD Securities are looking for a 0.4% decline in November manufacturing sales of Canada, slightly above the market consensus for -1.0%.Key Quotes“A sharp decline in the price of petroleum products is the main driver for the soft print which suggests that real manufacturing sales should post a modest increase.” “Wholesale trade for November will be released alongside the manufacturing report where TD looks for a flat print (market: -0.3%).”

    Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN AMRO, expects Eurozone’s core inflation to continue to remain close to 1% level during 2019. Key Quotes “We

    Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN AMRO, expects Eurozone’s core inflation to continue to remain close to 1% level during 2019.Key Quotes“We see underlying inflationary pressures stemming from the labour market remaining subdued, as we expect wage growth to slow down somewhat. However, productivity growth should decline as well, with employment growth reacting to the weakening in output growth with a delay. Therefore, the rise in unit labour costs should be more stable. Besides the lack of inflationary pressures stemming from the labour market, we think that the impact of import prices on the inflation rate, on balance, should also remain subdued.” “The weakening of the global economy should reduce the inflation rate of global industrial goods, while an expected appreciation of the euro exchange rate will have a downward impact on import price inflation as well. All in all, core inflation should remain close the to 1%-level throughout 2019, which is about half the ECB’s target rate.”

    According to analysts at TD Securities, German ZEW sentiment offered mixed signs of relief, with the Current Situation Index sliding further to 27.6 (

    According to analysts at TD Securities, German ZEW sentiment offered mixed signs of relief, with the Current Situation Index sliding further to 27.6 (mkt: 43.0) vs 45.3 while Expectations improved marginally to -15.0 (mkt: -18.5) vs -17.5.Key Quotes“Attention now turns to the German PMIs on Thursday where we expect a partial rebound, offering further signs that the past underperformance was largely a result of temporary factors.”  

    Bert Colijn, senior economist at ING, points out that according to the bank lending survey conducted by the ECB, demand for loans has increased even a

    Bert Colijn, senior economist at ING, points out that according to the bank lending survey conducted by the ECB, demand for loans has increased even as concerns around economic growth has mounted, but the credit standards have remained unchanged in 4Q.Key Quotes“Uncertainty around economic conditions has not yet impacted the appetite for borrowing in the eurozone, as banks experienced an increase in demand for loans from both businesses and consumers. The increase was slightly smaller than in the third quarter but supportive of investment growth nonetheless. Expectations are that demand for credit will grow somewhat slower in the first quarter, which would be in line with a more modest investment environment.” “Overall, investment continues to be supported by growing demand for credit, which is an important sign in times of concerns about eurozone growth.”

       •  Pessimism over global growth hits risk sentiment and underpin demand for safe-haven assets.    •  Sliding US bond yields offset a modest USD up

       •  Pessimism over global growth hits risk sentiment and underpin demand for safe-haven assets.
       •  Sliding US bond yields offset a modest USD uptick and remained supportive of the up-move.    Gold staged a goodish rebound from closer to over two-week lows, set in the previous session, and for now seems to have snapped three consecutive days of losing streak. Pessimism over global growth grew after the International Monetary Fund lowered its 2019 and 2020 global growth forecasts on Monday and said failure to resolve trade tensions could further destabilize a slowing global economy. The downgrade came after China reported its slowest quarterly economic growth since 2009, also the weakest annual growth rate since 1990, and dented global risk-appetite, which was eventually seen underpinning the precious metal's safe-haven demand. The global flight to safety was evident from a weaker sentiment around equity markets and declining US Treasury bond yields, which partly offset a modest US Dollar uptick and provided an additional boost to the non-yielding yellow metal. There isn’t any major market-moving economic data due for release from the US and hence, the broader market risk sentiment might continue to act as an exclusive driver of the commodity’s move through Tuesday trading session.Technical levels to watchImmediate resistance is pegged near the $1286 area, above which the positive momentum could further get extended towards $1290 intermediate hurdle en-route the $1294-95 supply zone. On the flip side, $1280 level now seems to protect the immediate downside, which if broken might turn the commodity vulnerable to retest $1277-76 horizontal support before eventually falling to the $1270-69 region.
     

    Spain 9-Month Letras Auction: -0.378% vs -0.379%

    The improved sentiment around the British Pound is forcing EUR/GBP to lose further ground and drop to new 2-day lows in sub-0.8800 levels. EUR/GBP we

    The cross is putting the 0.8800 area to the test on Tuesday.Improved sentiment around GBP drags the cross lower.UK jobless rate dropped to 4.0% in November.The improved sentiment around the British Pound is forcing EUR/GBP to lose further ground and drop to new 2-day lows in sub-0.8800 levels.EUR/GBP weaker post-data, focused on BrexitThe European cross gathered extra downside pressure today following auspicious results from the UK labour market. In fact, the jobless rate dropped to 4.0% in November while the key Average Earnings including Bonus expanded more than expected 3.4% during November. In addition, Claimant Count Change rose by 20.8K contracts, a tad above estimates. Price action around the cross remains vigilant on Brexit developments, as always. In this regard, the UK Parliament will vote on January 29 on the recent Brexit ‘Plan B’ and the potential amendments to May’s deal. In the euro area, German and EMU Economic Sentiment gauged by the ZEW Survey improved a tad in January.EUR/GBP key levelsThe cross is now losing 0.19% at 0.8797 and a breakdown of 0.8763 (2019 low Jan.17) would expose 0.8723 (monthly low Oct.10 2018) and finally 0.8655 (monthly low Nov.13 2018). On the flip side, the next hurdle lines up at 0.8862 (200-day SMA) followed by 0.8902 (55-day SMA) and then 0.8985 (high Jan.15).

    James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, points out that the number of people in work rose by 141,000 over the September-November period for t

    James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, points out that the number of people in work rose by 141,000 over the September-November period for the UK economy, relative to the previous three months.Key Quotes“More importantly for policymakers – regular pay growth matched last month’s post-crisis high of 3.3%. This again emphasises that firms are having to lift wages increasingly rapidly to retain and attract talent. Our recent analysis indicates that this story is most noticeable in the construction, IT and hospitality sectors, all of which are reporting high skill shortage vacancy rates.” “While the perceived risk of a ‘no deal’ Brexit amongst investors appears to have fallen, businesses still have to work on the basis that an exit on WTO terms remains the default option on 29 March.” “There is, of course, plenty of uncertainty surrounding all of this, but one way or another we expect the economy to have a turbulent ride over the next couple of months. For this reason, we think the chances of Bank of England tightening in the first half of this year are fading rapidly.”  

    The downside pressure around the European currency stays intact on Tuesday although EUR/USD manages to cut some losses and move to the 1.1360 region i

    The pair stays unable to revert the prevailing pessimism.German Economic Sentiment bettered to -15.0 in January.Economic Sentiment in the euro area came in at -20.9 from -21.0.The downside pressure around the European currency stays intact on Tuesday although EUR/USD manages to cut some losses and move to the 1.1360 region in the wake of key data releases.EUR/USD offered post-ZEWSpot is attempting to consolidate in the lower bound of the weekly range around 1.1350 so far amidst USD-buying and following results from the German/EMU ZEW Survey. In fact, German Economic Sentiment improved to -15.0 for the current month while Current Conditions came in at 27.6 vs. 43.5 forecasted. Additionally, Economic Sentiment in the broader euro area slipped back to -20.9 for the same period. In the US data space, Existing Home Sales are only due later today.What to look for around EUR/USDToday’s results from the ZEW Survey brought in some relief to the existing concerns over the ongoing slowdown in the region, although current figures remain far away from optimistic levels. Moving further, EUR is expected to remain under scrutiny ahead of the ECB meeting due later in the week, where President Draghi is expected to deliver a cautious (dovish?) message. In the longer run, fundamentals in the region should remain in centre stage along with the upcoming EU parliamentary elections (May), Italian politics and French social unrest.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is losing 0.03% at 1.1361 and faces the next support at 1.1324 (200-week SMA) seconded by 1.1306 (2019 low Jan.3) and finally 1.1269 (monthly low Dec.14 2018). On the flip side, a break above 1.1380 (55-day SMA) would target 1.1415 (21-day SMA) en route to 1.1442 (38.2% Fibo of the September-November drop).

    European Monetary Union ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment: -20.9 (January) vs -21

    Analysts at Standard Chartered are expecting that the Indian government is likely to meet its FY19 fiscal deficit target of 3.3% of GDP and target of

    Analysts at Standard Chartered are expecting that the Indian government is likely to meet its FY19 fiscal deficit target of 3.3% of GDP and target of 3.2% in FY20.Key Quotes“Even in our worst-case scenario of a 3.5% deficit in FY19, we do not see a reversal of fiscal consolidation.” “Risks to our projections include potential farm stimulus, transfer of excess capital from RBI to government, oil prices.” “While farm stimulus cannot be ruled out, it is unlikely to widen the deficit significantly given fiscal constraints and implementation issues.”  

    The German ZEW headline numbers for the month of January showed that the economic sentiment index came in at -15.0 versus -18.4 expected and -17.5 las

    The German ZEW headline numbers for the month of January showed that the economic sentiment index came in at -15.0 versus -18.4 expected and -17.5 last. Meanwhile, the sub-index current conditions figure slumped to 27.6 following the previous month’s sharp fall to 45.3 and also fell short of market expectations for a reading of 43.5.About German ZEWThese numbers are derived via a survey of about 300 German institutional investors and analysts, conducted by the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW), which asks respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook for Germany. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).
     

    Germany ZEW Survey - Current Situation came in at 27.6, below expectations (43.5) in January

    Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment came in at -15, above expectations (-18.4) in January

    Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN AMRO, points out that Eurozone’s wage growth has picked up since the start of 2018, in spite of the fact that

    Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN AMRO, points out that Eurozone’s wage growth has picked up since the start of 2018, in spite of the fact that there is still slack in the labour market.Key Quotes“Compensation per employee rose by 2.5% yoy in 2018Q3, up from 1.9% in 2017Q4. Considering that real wages contracted in 2017 due to an unexpectedly sharp rise in the headline inflation rate on the back of higher energy prices, we think that the pick-up in nominal wage growth since the start of 2018 merely was compensation for this.” “Consequently, we expect nominal wage growth to decline somewhat in 2019. Nevertheless, it should remain higher than the inflation rate. An early indicator for somewhat slower wage growth seems to be that growth in negotiated wages (which according to comments made by ECB President Mario Draghi is the ECB’s preferred measure of wage growth) edged lower from 2.2% in 2018Q2 to 2.1% in 2018Q3.”

    Spain 3-Month Letras Auction rose from previous -0.505% to -0.462%

       •  The cross showed some resilience below 100-hour EMA and for the second straight session managed to find decent support near the 140.70-60 horizo

       •  The cross showed some resilience below 100-hour EMA and for the second straight session managed to find decent support near the 140.70-60 horizontal zone.   •  Slightly better-than-expected UK wage growth data and an unexpected downtick in the UK unemployment rate provided a minor lift to the British Pound.   •  Technical indicators on the 1-hourly chart regained positive traction and continue to hold in the bullish territory on 4-hourly/daily charts, supporting bullish bias.   •  A follow-through up-move beyond the overnight swing high, around mid-141.00, will reinforce the constructive set-up and pave the way for additional intraday gains.   •  However, a convincing break below the mentioned support might negate the positive outlook and prompt some aggressive long-unwinding trade amid Brexit uncertainties.GBP/JPY 1-hourly chartGBP/JPY Overview:
        Today Last Price: 141.17
        Today Daily change: -0.25 pips
        Today Daily change %: -0.18%
        Today Daily Open: 141.42
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 139.47
        Daily SMA50: 142.11
        Daily SMA100: 144.45
        Daily SMA200: 145.48
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 141.54
        Previous Daily Low: 140.69
        Previous Weekly High: 142.22
        Previous Weekly Low: 137.36
        Previous Monthly High: 145.52
        Previous Monthly Low: 138.86
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 141.21
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 141.01
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 140.89
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 140.37
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 140.04
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 141.75
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 142.07
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 142.6  

       •  Wages excluding bonuses rose by 3.3% 3m/y compared to 3.3% expected.    •  Wages including bonuses rose by 3.4% 3m/y compared to 3.3% expected.

       •  Wages excluding bonuses rose by 3.3% 3m/y compared to 3.3% expected.
       •  Wages including bonuses rose by 3.4% 3m/y compared to 3.3% expected.
       •  The UK unemployment rate unexpectedly ticks lower to 4.0% in November.    The Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Tuesday, the UK’s average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, matched expectations and arrived at 3.3% 3m/y versus 3.3% last. Meanwhile, the gauge including bonuses bettered expectations and came in at 3.4% 3m/y as against 3.3% 3m/y previous.  The Kingdom’s official jobless rate unexpectedly ticked down to 4.0% in November, while the claimant count change showed a bigger-than-expected increase. The number of people claiming jobless benefits rose by 20.8K in December as against expectations of a 20.0K increase and an upwardly revised reading of 24.8K seen previously. 

    The Sterling is deriving some support from the better-than-expected labour market figures today and is lifting GBP/USD beyond 1.2900 the figure, or da

    Cable regains the composure following UK jobs report.The pair clinches fresh daily highs above the 1.2900 mark.UK Claimant Count Change rose by 20.8K in December.The Sterling is deriving some support from the better-than-expected labour market figures today and is lifting GBP/USD beyond 1.2900 the figure, or daily highs.GBP/USD bid on data, looks to BrexitCable gained extra ground following the publication of the monthly report on the UK labour market. In fact, Claimant Count Change rose by 20.8K in December, the key Average Earnings including Bonus rose 3.4% in November and the jobless rate ticked lower to 4.0% during the same period. Looking ahead, developments around Brexit, as always, will dictate the sentiment around the British Pound. In this regard, and following PM May’s ‘Plan B’ released on Monday, investors will now focus on the probable amendments to it, a potential extension of Article 50, the ‘no deal’ scenario, the likeliness of a second referendum or the option involving a permanent customs union. It is worth recalling that the Parliament will vote again on January 29.GBP/USD levels to considerAs of writing, the pair is up 0.07% at 1.2901 facing the next resistance at 1.3000 (2019 high Jan.17) seconded by 1.3072 (high Nov.14 2018) and then 1.3087 (200-day SMA). On the other hand, a breach of 1.2830 (low Jan.21) would expose 1.2779 (55-day SMA) and finally 1.2766 (21-day SMA).

    United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate remains at 2.8% in December

    United Kingdom Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) above forecasts (3.3%) in November: Actual (3.4%)

    United Kingdom Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) in line with expectations (3.3%) in November

    United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) below expectations (4.1%) in November: Actual (4%)

    United Kingdom Claimant Count Change came in at 20.8K, above forecasts (20K) in December

    United Kingdom Average Earnings excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) meets forecasts (3.3%) in November

    United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing above forecasts (£1.05B) in December: Actual (£2.112B)

    Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, explains that the USD/MXN bounced off the 2018-19 support line at 18.8762 towards the August high and the 200 day

    Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, explains that the USD/MXN bounced off the 2018-19 support line at 18.8762 towards the August high and the 200 day moving average at 19.3747/4468.Key Quotes“Minor resistance above the 200 day moving average at 19.4468 comes in at the 19.6855 September high with still further resistance being seen along the 55 day moving average at 19.9287.” “Key resistance remains to be seen at the 20.4720/6574 October-to-December highs.” “Below the current January low at 18.8787 lie the mid-October low at 18.7312 and the August and October troughs at 18.5017/4052. This area we expect to hold, if it were to be retested anytime soon.”

    DXY daily chart Dollar Index Spot Overview:     Today Last Price: 96.37     Today Daily change: 0.03 pips     Today Daily change %: 0.03%    

    The greenback is extending its upside momentum so far this week, retaking the mid-96.00s and opening the door for a potential move higher in the short-term horizon.DXY has quickly reverted Monday’s retracement and has now resumed the upside to fresh 3-week tops near 96.50.Extra gains should face interim hurdle at the 55-day SMA, today at 96.60, ahead of the 23.6% Fibo retracement of the September-December up move at 96.79.DXY daily chart Dollar Index Spot Overview:
        Today Last Price: 96.37
        Today Daily change: 0.03 pips
        Today Daily change %: 0.03%
        Today Daily Open: 96.34
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 96.15
        Daily SMA50: 96.64
        Daily SMA100: 96.08
        Daily SMA200: 95.05
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 96.43
        Previous Daily Low: 96.21
        Previous Weekly High: 96.4
        Previous Weekly Low: 95.47
        Previous Monthly High: 97.71
        Previous Monthly Low: 96.06
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 96.35
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 96.29
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 96.22
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 96.11
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 96
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 96.44
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 96.55
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 96.66  

    German ZEW Survey Overview The ZEW will release its German Economic Sentiment Index and the Current Situation Index at 1000 GMT in the EU session lat

    German ZEW Survey OverviewThe ZEW will release its German Economic Sentiment Index and the Current Situation Index at 1000 GMT in the EU session later today, reflecting institutional investors’ opinions for the next six months. The headline economic sentiment index is expected to fall to -18.4 in January as against an unexpected recovery to -17.5 in the previous month. Meanwhile, the current situation sub-index is also likely to decelerate further to 43.5 versus 45.3 recorded in December.     How could affect EUR/USD?A surprisingly positive headline reading might prompt some short-covering bounce and assist the pair to make a fresh attempt towards reclaiming the 1.1400 handle. However, a bigger-than-expected drop would further dent the already weaker sentiment surrounding the shared currency and pave the way for an extension of the pair's near-term bearish trajectory. FXStreet´s own Analyst, Yohay Elam writes: "Initial support awaits at 1.1345 which is the fresh low and also the low point around Christmas. 1.1310 was the swing low at the wake of the new year. Further down, 1.1270 is a double bottom after halting the falls in December. 1.1215 is the 2018 low." "Looking up, 1.1380 was the initial low after the pair lost 1.1400. 1.1410 is significant resistance after rejecting recovery attempts. This price also coincides with the 200 SMA. 1.1450 served as support early in January. 1.1480 was a swing high before the recent falls," Yohay adds.Key Notes   •  Germany: Focus on ZEW figures today – TDS    •  EUR/USD Forecast: Looks to confirm a bearish breakdown ahead of Thursday's ECB decision    •  EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Scope for extra downside. Target remains at 1.1300 and belowAbout German ZEWThe Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).
     

    Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN AMRO, suggests that their outlook for the global economy and world trade suggest that Eurozone exports will c

    Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN AMRO, suggests that their outlook for the global economy and world trade suggest that Eurozone exports will continue to contract in 2018Q4-2019Q1 and grow modestly thereafter.Key Quotes“Importantly, we expect policymakers to facilitate a modest recovery in world trade growth. The FOMC seems less fixed on further interest rate hikes, the ECB may keep interest rates on hold for even longer, while China’s policymakers have stepped up stimulus. Moreover, we have assumed that there will be no escalation of protectionism, although uncertainty related to protectionism will continue to linger.” “As the trade-weighted exchange rate of the euro has been moving in a narrow range since the summer of 2017, it is not expected to have a significant impact on competitiveness or trade flows. All in all, we expect net exports to reduce overall GDP growth by around 0.3pps in 2019.”

    EUR/JPY daily chart EUR/JPY Overview:     Today Last Price: 124.3     Today Daily change: -0.40 pips     Today Daily change %: -0.32%     Tod

    EUR/JPY is extending its consolidative theme so far this year following the ‘flash crash’ on January 3 to sub-119.00 levels.The cross, however, faces a formidable resistance in the 125.00 area, reinforced by August 2018 low (124.91) and the 21-day SMA at 124.80.Below this hurdle the cross is expected to extend the sideline theme although the likelihood of a leg lower remains well on the cards with immediate target at 123.31 (low January 15).EUR/JPY daily chart EUR/JPY Overview:
        Today Last Price: 124.3
        Today Daily change: -0.40 pips
        Today Daily change %: -0.32%
        Today Daily Open: 124.7
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 124.8
        Daily SMA50: 126.92
        Daily SMA100: 128.4
        Daily SMA200: 128.97
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 124.83
        Previous Daily Low: 124.51
        Previous Weekly High: 124.98
        Previous Weekly Low: 123.39
        Previous Monthly High: 129.3
        Previous Monthly Low: 125.36
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 124.71
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 124.63
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 124.53
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 124.36
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 124.2
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 124.85
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 125.01
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 125.18  

       •  Fails to capitalize on the overnight uptick led by the UK PM May’s Brexit Plan B.    •  The global flight to safety underpins USD and exerts so

       •  Fails to capitalize on the overnight uptick led by the UK PM May’s Brexit Plan B.
       •  The global flight to safety underpins USD and exerts some downward pressure.
       •  Downside remains limited ahead of the UK jobs report/wage growth data.    The GBP/USD pair held on to its softer tone through the early European session and refreshed daily lows in the last hour, albeit quickly recovered few pips thereafter. Worries over global growth boosted the US Dollar's perceived safe-haven demand and turned out to be one of the key factors failing to assist the pair to capitalize on the previous session’s goodish rebound from the 1.2830 support area. The overnight up-move came after the UK PM Theresa May's Brexit Plan B, which lacked any significant details but decreased the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit or a second referendum and extended some support to the British Pound.  Meanwhile, a downward revision to its global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 by the IMF on Monday, against the backdrop further slowdown in the Chinese economy to its weakest annual growth since 1990, prompted investors to move into traditional safe-haven currencies and kept a lid on any further gains.  The downside, however, remained cushioned, at least for the time being, as market participants now seemed to wait for today's important release of the UK labor market report, though any immediate reaction is more likely to remain short-lived amid plenty of Brexit uncertainties.Technical levels to watchThe 1.2830 region might continue to act as immediate support, which if broken might turn the pair vulnerable to break through the 1.2800 handle and aim towards testing its next support near mid-1.2700s. On the upside, immediate resistance is pegged near the 1.2920-30 region, above which the pair is likely to make a fresh attempt towards conquering the key 1.3000 psychological mark.

    Hong Kong SAR Consumer Price Index dipped from previous 2.6% to 2.5% in December

    Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that the USD/JPY’s correction higher is losing steam, the intraday Elliott wave counts remain negative a

    Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that the USD/JPY’s correction higher is losing steam, the intraday Elliott wave counts remain negative and the daily Elliott wave count continues to indicate failure at 110.30.Key Quotes“We would then allow slippage back towards 107.75/50 and possibly the 104.10 spike low. The recent move lower was exhaustive and we suspect that this will hold for now.” “Above 110.30 will allow for a retest of the 111.38 the 26th October low. Support at 104.63/10 guards the 100.70 Fibonacci support and the 99.00 2016 low. Initial support lies 107.77, 10th January low.” “Resistance at 111.38, the 26th October low, guards112.23 the 6 th December low and the top of the range at 113.84.”

    EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD Overview:     Today Last Price: 1.1358     Today Daily change: -0.0011 pips     Today Daily change %: -0.10%     

    The pair remains under pressure and is now putting the 1.1350 area to the test, or fresh multi-week lows.The continuation of the leg lower could open the door for a visit to the key 200-week SMA in the 1.1320 region. A break below this level could allow for a test of YTD lows in the 1.1300 neighbourhood ahead of December lows in the 1.1270/65 band.The bearish outlook on EUR/USD is expected to persist as long as the short-term resistance line, today at 1.1542, caps.EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD Overview:
        Today Last Price: 1.1358
        Today Daily change: -0.0011 pips
        Today Daily change %: -0.10%
        Today Daily Open: 1.1369
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 1.1428
        Daily SMA50: 1.1388
        Daily SMA100: 1.146
        Daily SMA200: 1.1599
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 1.1392
        Previous Daily Low: 1.1357
        Previous Weekly High: 1.1491
        Previous Weekly Low: 1.1353
        Previous Monthly High: 1.1486
        Previous Monthly Low: 1.1269
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1378
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.137
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1353
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1338
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1318
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1388
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1407
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1423  

    Jens Peter Sørensen, senior analyst at Danske Bank, suggests that EUR/GBP remains mainly unaffected after UK PM, Theresa May, presented her Plan B for

    Jens Peter Sørensen, senior analyst at Danske Bank, suggests that EUR/GBP remains mainly unaffected after UK PM, Theresa May, presented her Plan B for Brexit as it did not offer much news in terms of the future path for Brexit.Key Quotes“All options are still on the table, including a second referendum, which the Labour party according to the media is said to be proposing to parliament. Voting on Plan B and other amendments will take place on 29 January. With an extension of Article 50 looking increasingly likely and parliament seeking to take over the Brexit process and thereby reducing the risk of a ‘no deal’ Brexit, the post-Brexit outcome distribution for EUR/GBP looks increasingly skewed towards the downside.” “Appetite for GBP has generally improved and implied GBP FX volatility (Brexit risk premium) has declined significantly. We reckon that the range for EUR/GBP may have shifted lower and we now see the cross within the 0.86-0.89 range near term (previous range: 0.88-0.9060).”

       •  The pair finally broke down of its overnight consolidative trading range and has now dropped to test a short-term ascending trend-line support,

       •  The pair finally broke down of its overnight consolidative trading range and has now dropped to test a short-term ascending trend-line support, held over the past one week or so.   •  The fact that the pair has now found acceptance below 50-hour SMA, along with bearish technical indicators on the 1-hourly chart support prospects for an eventual bearish break.    •  However, positive oscillators on the 4-hourly chart make it prudent to wait for a convincing break through the mentioned support before positioning for additional depreciating move.USD/JPY 1-hourly chartUSD/JPY Overview:
        Today Last Price: 109.42
        Today Daily change %: -0.24%
        Today Daily Open: 109.68
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 109.21
        Daily SMA50: 111.45
        Daily SMA100: 112.05
        Daily SMA200: 111.2
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 109.78
        Previous Daily Low: 109.47
        Previous Weekly High: 109.9
        Previous Weekly Low: 107.99
        Previous Monthly High: 113.83
        Previous Monthly Low: 109.55
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 109.66
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 109.59
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 109.51
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 109.34
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 109.21
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 109.81
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 109.94
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 110.11  

    Lan Shen, economist at Standard Chartered, points out that the China’s January SMEI reading shows a marginal improvement in SMEs’ business performance

    Lan Shen, economist at Standard Chartered, points out that the China’s January SMEI reading shows a marginal improvement in SMEs’ business performance entering 2019.Key Quotes“The headline SMEI (Bloomberg: SCCNSMEI <Index>) – based on our monthly survey of more than 500 SMEs – edged up to 54.9 in January from 54.7 in December.” “The ‘current performance’ sub-index advanced 0.4ppt from December and was 1.0ppt higher than in January 2018. The ‘credit’ sub-index picked up 1.2ppt from December and was 1.5ppt higher than January last year. This suggests a brighter start to this year compared to 2018, supported by improved credit support.” “We expect the relaxation of criteria for banks’ eligibility for targeted RRR cuts, the targeted medium-term lending facility (TMLF) and the recent RRR cut to incentivise banks to increase credit allocation to SMEs and lower their funding costs.”                          

    The greenback, measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), keeps the optimism well and sound so far this week, quickly leaving behind Monday’s small pullba

    The index extends the march north to the 96.50 region.Yields of the US 10-year note drops to the vicinity of 2.75%.US markets back to normal activity after Monday’s holiday.The greenback, measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), keeps the optimism well and sound so far this week, quickly leaving behind Monday’s small pullback and refocusing on 96.50, or 3-week highs.US Dollar Index propped up by sentimentThe index is prolonging the rebound from YTD lows in the 95.00 neighbourhood seen earlier in the month, already gaining more than 1.5%. In fact, the buck is deriving support from the lack of any significant progress in the US-China trade talks, stagnant Brexit negotiations and the probable re-assessment of fundamentals in the euro area, which continues to weigh on EUR. In the data space, December New Home Sales are only due later in the NA session.What to look for around USDThe US Federal government shutdown is already in its fourth consecutive week and investors have started to gauge its impact on GDP and employment figures during the first quarter. The US and China are expected to resume the trade talks at the end of the month in Washington. Until then, rumours and speculations are expected to run high and have their saying on the buck’s price action. On the longer run, the potential revision of the Fed’s tightening plans for this year appears to have lost some traction among traders, although this is expected to return to the fore as a key market driver in the medium term.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.12% at 96.43 facing the next resistance at 96.47 (high Jan.22) seconded by 96.61 (55-day SMA) and finally 96.96 (2019 high Jan.2). On the flip side, a breakdown of 96.12 (21-day SMA) would open the door to 95.92 (10-day SMA) and then 95.76 (50% Fibo of the September-December up move).

    According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, for the GBP/USD pair, they have conflicting intraday Elliott wave count, but for now would allow for

    According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, for the GBP/USD pair, they have conflicting intraday Elliott wave count, but for now would allow for slippage to the 1.2775 55 day ma, as it is easing back from the 1.3000 level and looks set to consolidate near term.Key Quotes“The market recently reversed from a 5 month support line. We regard the recent move to 1.2444, charted in January, as the end of the down move and we look for gains to the 200 day ma at 1.3088. Dips will find initial support at the 55 day ma at 1.2775 and 1.2669/62, the August low. Only below 1.2444/25 targets the 78.6% retracement at 1.2109.” “Only a rise above the July, September and October highs at 1.3258/1.3363 would put the June high at 1.3473 on the cards.”

    Hungary Gross Wages (YoY) declined to 10.4% in November from previous 10.8%

       •  The global flight to safety lifts the USD to near two-week tops.    •  Weaker oil prices undermine Loonie and remained supportive.    •  Today

       •  The global flight to safety lifts the USD to near two-week tops.
       •  Weaker oil prices undermine Loonie and remained supportive.
       •  Today’s second-tier economic data might provide some impetus.    The USD/CAD pair built on the overnight positive momentum and climbed further beyond the 1.3300 handle to hit over two-week tops in the last hour. A slowdown in China economy to 28-year lows, followed by a downward revision to its global growth forecasts by the IMF fanned fresh worries over global growth and boosted the US Dollar's traditional safe-haven appeal.  Meanwhile, weakening global economic data were cited as a headwind for crude oil prices, which further undermined the commodity-linked currency - Loonie and remained supportive of the up-move to the highest level since Jan. 7. The latest leg of a sudden pick up over the past hour or so could also be attributed to some technical buying on a sustained move beyond the 1.3315-20 region, lifting the pair back towards 50-day SMA support-turned-resistance. It would now be interesting to see if bulls are able to maintain their dominant position amid relatively thin economic docket, featuring the release of Canadian manufacturing sales and existing home sales data from the US.Technical levels to watchOn a sustained move beyond the mentioned barrier, around the 1.3345 region, the pair is likely to aim towards reclaiming the 1.3400 round figure mark. On the flip side, any meaningful retracement now seems to find immediate support near the 1.3300-1.3290 region, which is followed by support near the 1.3255-50 horizontal zone. 
     

    The UK Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay was out on the wires in the last hour, via Reuters, saying that we are working on what to propose on the backs

    The UK Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay was out on the wires in the last hour, via Reuters, saying that we are working on what to propose on the backstop and it is in both sides interest to have a deal. He was further noted saying that Parliament recognizes that compromise is needed and going back to the referendum would damage democracy. PM May's deal is the most popular of options available and there is a huge amount in the deal that lawmakers do support, he added further.

    Analysts at Danske Bank point out that on the expected lines, UK PM Theresa May's Brexit plan B did not really give us any new information or clarific

    Analysts at Danske Bank point out that on the expected lines, UK PM Theresa May's Brexit plan B did not really give us any new information or clarification.Key Quotes“It seems like May's strategy is to find out how to get her supporting party, Ulster's DUP, on board, as it would mean bigger support also within her own party. Now, focus is on the amendments, where our focus is on these four topics: (1) a customs union or not, (2) a possible extension of Article 50, (3) preparation of a new EU referendum and (4) new deadlines for Theresa May.” “The main problem with Brexit is that there is no majority for anything, so it is not a given that any of the amendments will get support from the majority of the MPs. Focus is also on the EU, where we no can no longer rule out a long extension of Article 50, giving time to negotiate the future permanent relationship, which would be the best way to avoid ever having to activate the much-hated Irish border backstop.”

    The selling bias around the single currency remains well and sound during the first half of the week and is now dragging EUR/USD to test lows in the m

    The pair remains under pressure and drops near 1.1350.The greenback pushes higher and approaches 96.50.German, EMU ZEW survey next of relevance in Euroland.The selling bias around the single currency remains well and sound during the first half of the week and is now dragging EUR/USD to test lows in the mid-1.1300s.EUR/USD looks to data, risk trendsThe continuation of the bid sentiment surrounding the greenback is putting spot under further pressure and forcing it to trade in the area of 3-week lows. Sentiment in the risk-associated complex remains sour today as market participants continue to adjust to the recent headlines from the IMF, further evidence of a slowdown in the Chinese economy and lack of progress from the US-China trade negotiations. It is worth recalling that the Washington-based think tank revised lower its forecasts for global growth for the current year to 3.5% from 3.7%. Data wise today, the ZEW Survey is due in Germany and the euro area, while attention should also remain on developments from the Brexit talks following May’s ‘Plan B’.What to look for around EUR/USDToday’s figures from the ZEW Survey should shed further light on the ongoing slowdown in Germany and the euro bloc. Moving further, EUR is expected to remain under scrutiny ahead of the ECB meeting due later in the week, where President Draghi is expected to deliver a cautious (dovish?) message. In the longer run, fundamentals in the region should remain in centre stage along with the upcoming EU parliamentary elections (May), Italian politics and French social unrest.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is losing 0.11% at 1.1351 and faces the next support at 1.1324 (200-week SMA) seconded by 1.1306 (2019 low Jan.3) and finally 1.1269 (monthly low Dec.14 2018). On the flip side, a break above 1.1380 (55-day SMA) would target 1.1415 (21-day SMA) en route to 1.1442 (38.2% Fibo of the September-November drop).

    Analysts at TD Securities suggest that their December quarter CPI forecast of flat/q and 1.8%/y forecast (same as consensus) is slightly lower than th

    Analysts at TD Securities suggest that their December quarter CPI forecast of flat/q and 1.8%/y forecast (same as consensus) is slightly lower than the RBNZ’s 2%/y, but is via an unexpected -3.5%/q slump in fuel prices (Private transport -2.0%/q).Key Quotes“Most market forecasts are actually +0.1% but the tail is skewed to the downside (including a few looking for -0.1%/q). Most services prices are expected to creep higher; we know the seasonal slide in Food (-1.4%/q) and a seasonal pop in public transport (+8.4%/q). After official CPI is released, the RBNZ releases sector factoral model CPIs, core measures that RBNZ Governor Orr watches (3pm NZT).”          

    UK Jobs report overview The UK labor market report is expected to show that the average weekly earnings, including bonuses, in the three months to No

    UK Jobs report overviewThe UK labor market report is expected to show that the average weekly earnings, including bonuses, in the three months to November, are expected to remain unchanged at 3.3%, while ex-bonuses also, the wages are also seen steadying at 3.3% in the reported period. The number of people seeking jobless benefits increased 20.0k in the three months to December versus 21.9k additions booked last. The ILO unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1% during the period.How could they affect GBP/USD?A drop in the UK’s wages could trigger fresh selling in the pound while markets remain watchful of the Brexit-related developments. The rates could test the 1.2754 (100-DMA) on a negative surprise. A break below the last, a test of the 1.2700 level remains inevitable. On a positive surprise, the GBP/USD pair could stage a comeback and regain the 1.29 handle, above which the immediate resistances lie at 1.2931 (Jan 14 high) and 1.2972 (200-DMA). “The regular pay (excluding bonuses) is expected to increase 3.3% over the year in the three months to November, confirming the strongest pay rise in the last decade. On the top of it, the total pay is also expected to repeat last month’s reading of 3.3% y/y in three months ending in November. Strong pay increases reported in December UK labor market report are set to support Sterling on the currency markets, as pay rise implication in an environment of low inflation supports real earnings growth and will see the Bank of England hike the Bank rate in the anticipation of emerging wage pressures on inflation”, Mario Blascak (PhD), Editor-in-Chief at FXStreet explains.Key NotesUK employment amongst market movers today – Danske BankUK: Unemployment rate likely to remain unchanged at 4.1% - TDS GBP/USD Analysis: Climbs after Brexit Plan-B but lacks follow-through ahead of UK employment dataAbout UK jobsThe UK Average Earnings released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a key short-term indicator of how levels of pay are changing within the UK economy. Generally speaking, the positive earnings growth anticipates positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

       •  Dismal China GDP print/global growth concerns continue to weigh.     •  The USD benefits from haven-flows and added to the selling bias. The A

       •  Dismal China GDP print/global growth concerns continue to weigh. 
       •  The USD benefits from haven-flows and added to the selling bias.    The AUD/USD pair traded with a negative bias for the third consecutive session and is currently placed at two-week lows, around the 0.7135 region. The pair extended last week's retracement slide from levels beyond the 0.7200 handle and was further weighed down by a combination of negative forces. Monday's Chinese macro data showed that the economy recorded its weakest annual growth since 1990 and was seen as one of the key factors denting sentiment surrounding the China-proxy Australian Dollar.  Adding to this, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth forecast for 2019 to the weakest in three years and fanned worries over global growth, which further collaborated towards driving haven-flows towards the US Dollar and away from perceived riskier currencies - like the Aussie.  Meanwhile, the latest optimism over a possible resolution of the US-China trade tensions did little to lend any support, albeit might help limit further downside amid a relatively thin US economic docket, featuring the second-tier release of existing home sales data, and ahead of Thursday's Australian employment details. Technical levels to watchImmediate support is pegged near the 0.7115-10 region, below which the pair is likely to break through the 0.7100 handle and aim towards testing its next support near the 0.7065-60 horizontal zone. On the flip side, the 0.7155-60 region now becomes immediate resistance, which if cleared might assist the pair to make a fresh attempt towards reclaiming the 0.7200 handle. AUD/USD Overview:
        Today Last Price: 0.7137
        Today Daily change: -0.0022 pips
        Today Daily change %: -0.31%
        Today Daily Open: 0.7159
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 0.7117
        Daily SMA50: 0.7183
        Daily SMA100: 0.7171
        Daily SMA200: 0.7314
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 0.7182
        Previous Daily Low: 0.7139
        Previous Weekly High: 0.7226
        Previous Weekly Low: 0.7146
        Previous Monthly High: 0.7394
        Previous Monthly Low: 0.7014
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7156
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7166
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7138
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7117
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7095
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7181
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7203
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7225
     

    Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, points out that the EUR/USD continues to ease lower towards the 1.1332 uptrend and the market is currently pretty

    Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, points out that the EUR/USD continues to ease lower towards the 1.1332 uptrend and the market is currently pretty neutral, but they suspect that the downside is now fairly limited.Key Quotes“Dips lower should be contained by the 200 week ma at 1.1326 and the 2016-2019 uptrend at 1.1306. We favour a recovery to the 1.1591/1.1623 200 day ma and mid October high and slightly longer term we target 1.1772, the 55 week ma.” “Failure at 1.1267 will trigger losses to the 1.1216 recent low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-18 advance at 1.1186. Please note that we continue to regard the 1.1216 recent low as an interim low for the market.” “Long term trend (1-3 months): A rise above the recent high at 1.1625 would confirm a trend reversal and put the 55 week moving average at 1.1795 back on the cards.”                                                   

    Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that in the UK, focus is on the amendments to Theresa May's Brexit Plan B and whether the members of parliament can ge

    Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that in the UK, focus is on the amendments to Theresa May's Brexit Plan B and whether the members of parliament can get behind one or more of them.Key Quotes“So far, the problem has been that there is no majority for anything in the House of Commons.” “The UK jobs report for November is also due, where we estimate both the unemployment rate (three-month average) and the annual growth rate in average weekly earnings (three-month average) were unchanged at 4.1% and 3.3% y/y, respectively.” “In Germany, focus is on the ZEW survey data for January. The current situation index has been falling over the past three months, which was likely also the case in January.” “US markets are open again today after being closed yesterday due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day.”  

    In an interview with DLF Radio on Tuesday, Germany Justice Minister Barley expressed his displeasure with the UK PM Theresa May’s Brexit Plan B while

    In an interview with DLF Radio on Tuesday, Germany Justice Minister Barley expressed his displeasure with the UK PM Theresa May’s Brexit Plan B while saying that the UK will always be a close partner. Barley said that the Draft Brexit deal will not be changed, adding that in case of a second referendum there could be leeway in terms of time. He finally noted that the referendum on Brexit deal could pacify situation

    FX option expiries for Jan 22 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - USD/JPY: USD amounts 109.00 684m 109.25 600m - AUD/

    FX option expiries for Jan 22 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - USD/JPY: USD amounts 109.00 684m 109.25 600m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.7150 7 10m  0.7200 526m - NZD/USD: NZD amounts 0.6720 202m  0.6750 210m

    The risk-off sentiment was the key underlying theme in Asia this Tuesday, as global growth concerns continued to remain a drag on the markets. The saf

    The risk-off sentiment was the key underlying theme in Asia this Tuesday, as global growth concerns continued to remain a drag on the markets. The safe-havens such as the Yen was offered a fresh boost at the expense of the higher-yielding currencies such as the Aussie, the Kiwi and the GBP.  The Aussie emerged the main laggard while the USD/JPY pair breached the 109.50 level. The Cable faced rejection multiple times just ahead of the 1.29 handle. Among the related markets, both crude benchmarks extended the corrective slide as economic worries spread while gold prices failed to benefit from negative Asian equities and traded weaker below 1280 levels.Main Topics in AsiaUS President Trump: China's latest economic numbers show need for trade deal – Twitter UK Labor Party proposes option of second Brexit referendum German Govt Spox: Germany continues to campaign for an orderly Brexit UN sees global economic growth slowing to 3% in 2019 – Reuters Japanese firms to keep capex steady amid US-China trade tensions – Reuters Corporate Survey WTI consolidates the upside near $54, OPEC cuts underpin UK’s Rudd: UK may face resignations if lawmakers stopped from voting away no-deal – The Times Japan's 40-year bond yield hits lowest since December 2016 Gold remains on defensive despite IMF's downward revision of global growth China's State planner: economic pressure will hit the job market India's GDP will improve to 7.5 percent next fiscal - IMFKey Focus AheadMarkets gear up for a busy EUR macro calendar, with the UK jobs and wages data to headline. The wages, both excluding and including bonuses, for November are likely to remain unchanged at 3.3% 3m/y while the ILO unemployment rate is also seen steadying at 4.1% in the reported month. Also, in focus remains the German ZEW economic survey for the month of January, with the headline figure seen arriving at -18.4 vs. -17.5. Later in the NA session, the Canadian manufacturing sales and wholesale sales will be released at 1330 GMT, followed by the US existing home sales data at 1500 GMT. In early late NY/ early Asian trades at 2245 GMT, New Zealand’s Q4 2018 CPI report will be published. EUR/USD: yield differentials favor the US dollar The EUR, therefore, is likely to remain under pressure ahead of the ECB's rate decision. The technicals are also biased bearish. For instance, the pair has found acceptance under the 50-day moving average (MA) support and the 5- and 10-day MAs are trending south. GBP/USD slipping further away from 1.2900 ahead of UK wages The GBP/USD pair broke its overnight consolidative mode to the downside heading into the London markets, now looking to test the 100-DMA at 1.2854, with the immediate focus now on the UK labor market report due at 0930 GMT. UK wages Preview: UK wages set to rise supporting rate hike outlook Even with the Brexit uncertainty weighing on the UK business investment and consumer spending, the UK labor market is solid and firm and the fresh labor market report for December due Tuesday, January 22 is expected to confirm it again. NZ: Recent volatility in fuel prices to have little bearing on Q4 CPI – Westpac Analysts at Westpac present a brief preview of New Zealand’s Q4 2018 CPI report due later on Tuesday at 2145 GMT.  

    Analysts at TD Securities are expecting a relatively unchanged snapshot of the labour market in the three months to November for the UK economy. Key

    Analysts at TD Securities are expecting a relatively unchanged snapshot of the labour market in the three months to November for the UK economy.Key Quotes“The unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.1% for the third consecutive month, while wage pressures (both headline and headline ex-bonus) repeat their previous 3.3% 3m/y gains. Core wages (private sector ex-bonus) should accelerate slightly to 3.5% 3m/y. Overall this picture will continue to point to a tight labour market, with rising costs a concern for the MPC.”                         

    Hourly chart Trend: bearish EUR/JPY Overview:     Today Last Price: 124.28     Today Daily change: -0.42 pips     Today Daily change %: -0.34

    The EUR/JPY pair could soon drop below 124.00 as the markets are likely to price in a delay in the ECB rate hike, courtesy of weakening of domestic demand conditions across the Eurozone. On Monday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised lower its global growth forecasts for the second time in three months, citing softening demand across Europe and recent palpitations in financial markets. Notably, the IMF now sees the German economy expanding 1.3 percent this year, down 0.6 percentage points from October. The ECB, therefore, has little room to sound dovish. Put simply, developments on the fundamental front favor downside in the EUR. Validating that argument is the triangle breakdown seen in the EUR/JPY chart below.Hourly chartTrend: bearish EUR/JPY Overview:
        Today Last Price: 124.28
        Today Daily change: -0.42 pips
        Today Daily change %: -0.34%
        Today Daily Open: 124.7
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 124.8
        Daily SMA50: 126.92
        Daily SMA100: 128.4
        Daily SMA200: 128.97
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 124.83
        Previous Daily Low: 124.51
        Previous Weekly High: 124.98
        Previous Weekly Low: 123.39
        Previous Monthly High: 129.3
        Previous Monthly Low: 125.36
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 124.71
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 124.63
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 124.53
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 124.36
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 124.2
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 124.85
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 125.01
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 125.18  

    Netherlands, The Consumer Spending Volume rose from previous 1.7% to 2% in November

    Netherlands, The Consumer Confidence Adj fell from previous 9 to 1 in January

    Analysts at TD Securities suggest that in today’s session, German ZEW data will be the key economic release. Key Quotes “While our statistical model

    Analysts at TD Securities suggest that in today’s session, German ZEW data will be the key economic release.Key Quotes“While our statistical models point to considerable downside risks in today's German ZEW figures, we think that the unwinding of some temporary factors such as low levels in the Rhine (a major transport route) should prevent any further deterioration, and look for a roughly unchanged Current Situation Index at 45.0 and a small gain in the Expectations Index to -15.0.”

    Indian economy will expand at a world-beating 7.5 percent rate in the fiscal year 2019-2020 despite the slowdown in the global economy, the Internatio

    Indian economy will expand at a world-beating 7.5 percent rate in the fiscal year 2019-2020 despite the slowdown in the global economy, the International Monetary Fund said while upgrading its October forecast of 7.4 percent, according to Hindustan Times. Key pointsIndia's economy is poised to pick up in 2019, benefiting from lower oil prices and a slower pace of monetary tightening than previously expected, as inflation pressures ease. IMF estimates India to grow 7.3% in 2018-19 and 7.7% in 2020-21. India's contribution to world growth has risen from 7.6% during 2000-08 to 14.5% in 2018. China's growth slowdown could be sharper than expected, especially if trade tensions continue. This can trigger abrupt sell-offs in financial and commodity markets as was the case in 2015-16.

    Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN AMRO, suggests that the eurozone economy lost significant momentum in 2018 and early indicators suggest that

    Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN AMRO, suggests that the eurozone economy lost significant momentum in 2018 and early indicators suggest that growth remained well below the trend rate of around 1.5% annualized in 2018Q4 and 2019Q1.Key Quotes“Exports and industrial production probably contracted during these two quarters as the global economy and world trade lost further momentum, while growth in France was temporarily disrupted by strikes and street protest.” “Looking forward, we expect GDP growth to pick up somewhat after 2019Q1 and settle down at around 0.3-04% qoq, which is close to the trend growth rate. Importantly, the temporary factors that depressed growth in 2018Q3-2019Q1 will unwind.” “Moreover, we expect modest growth in industry and exports on the back of some improvement in global trade growth in the second half of the year, and a pick-up in private consumption and government spending in the eurozone.”

    The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at the 5-day moving average (MA) support 109.44, having clocked a high of 109.69 earlier today. That pullback i

    USD/JPY is feeling the pull of gravity, possibly due to haven demand for the anti-risk JPY.IMF's downward revision of global growth forecasts is likely weighing over the S&P 500 futures and Asian stocks.The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at the 5-day moving average (MA) support 109.44, having clocked a high of 109.69 earlier today. That pullback is likely associated with the risk aversion in the equities and the resulting haven bid for the Japanese yen - surplus currency. As of writing, the S&P 500 futures are reporting a 0.66 percent loss. Meanwhile, Asian heavyweights like Nikkei, Kospi, Hang Seng, and the Shanghai Composite are down at least 0.6 percent. It seems the risk sentiment has taken a hit due to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) downward revision of the global growth forecasts. The fund predicts global growth of 3.5 percent this year, beneath the 3.7 percent expected in October, according to Bloomberg. Further, the prospects of a breakthrough US-China trade deal are low, given the two sides have made little or no progress on key issues like the Chinese theft of American intellectual property. Put simply, the path of least resistance for both the equities and the USD/JPY looks to be on the downside.USD/JPY Technical LevelsUSD/JPY Overview:
        Today Last Price: 109.47
        Today Daily change: -0.21 pips
        Today Daily change %: -0.19%
        Today Daily Open: 109.68
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 109.21
        Daily SMA50: 111.45
        Daily SMA100: 112.05
        Daily SMA200: 111.2
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 109.78
        Previous Daily Low: 109.47
        Previous Weekly High: 109.9
        Previous Weekly Low: 107.99
        Previous Monthly High: 113.83
        Previous Monthly Low: 109.55
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 109.66
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 109.59
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 109.51
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 109.34
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 109.21
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 109.81
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 109.94
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 110.11    

    The GBP/USD pair broke its overnight consolidative mode to the downside heading into the London markets, now looking to test the 100-DMA at 1.2854, wi

    Risk-off sentiment, firmer US dollar sends Cable lower. May’s Plan B could keep the corrective slide cushioned. Markets await UK jobs and wages data for the next move. The GBP/USD pair broke its overnight consolidative mode to the downside heading into the London markets, now looking to test the 100-DMA at 1.2854, with the immediate focus now on the UK labor market report due at 0930 GMT. The spot continues to face stiff resistances ahead of the 1.29 handle, as the buyers remain wary over the Brexit scenario, as the March 29th deadline approaches. Moreover, the GBP markets digest the latest report that the UK Labor Party proposes option of second Brexit referendum while a broadly firmer US dollar amid risk-off action in the Asian equities, driven by global growth risks, also collaborated to the latest leg down in the Cable.However, the UK PM May’s Plan B announced yesterday could help keep the sentiment somewhat underpinned around the pound. PM May noted that she does not rule out a no deal Brexit while adding that the Article 50 will not be extended without a deal. Further, a stronger UK wages data could bring back BOE rate hike talks back on the table, which would send the major back above the 1.29 handle. “The UK regular pay (excluding bonuses) is expected to rise 3.3% over the year in three months to November, confirming the strongest pay rise in a decade from the previous month. The UK total pay (including bonuses) is expected to accelerate to 3.3% y/y in three months ending in November after rising 3.3% in the previous months,” Mario Blascak, PhD, Editor-in-Chief at FXStreet noted.GBP/USD Technical LevelsGBP/USD Overview:
        Today Last Price: 1.2879
        Today Daily change: -0.0015 pips
        Today Daily change %: -0.12%
        Today Daily Open: 1.2894
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 1.2771
        Daily SMA50: 1.2751
        Daily SMA100: 1.2891
        Daily SMA200: 1.3086
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 1.2912
        Previous Daily Low: 1.283
        Previous Weekly High: 1.3002
        Previous Weekly Low: 1.2668
        Previous Monthly High: 1.284
        Previous Monthly Low: 1.2477
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.288
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.2861
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.2845
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2797
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.2764
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.2927
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.296
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3008  

    The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.1360 and risks falling to 1.13, courtesy of the dovish European Central Bank (ECB) expectations. The sprea

    The US-German (DE) two-year yield spread is rising in the EUR-negative manner.Markets are likely expecting a dovish bias.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday downgraded the global growth forecast, courtesy of softening demand across Europe.The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.1360 and risks falling to 1.13, courtesy of the dovish European Central Bank (ECB) expectations. The spread between the US and German two-year bond yields rose to 320 basis points on Friday; the highest level since Dec. 21. The rising yield differential indicates the markets are likely expecting the European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi to sound dovish at this week's rate-setting meeting on Jan. 24. Notably, the yield spread could rise further ahead of the ECB's rate decision, as the IMF's cut its forecast for the world economy for the second time in three months, citing softening demand across Europe. Add to that Brexit uncertainty and financial market instability and Draghi has little room to talk dovish. The EUR, therefore, is likely to remain under pressure ahead of the ECB's rate decision. The technicals are also biased bearish. For instance, the pair has found acceptance under the 50-day moving average (MA) support and the 5- and 10-day MAs are trending south.EUR/USD Technical LevelsEUR/USD Overview:
        Today Last Price: 1.1361
        Today Daily change: -0.0008 pips
        Today Daily change %: -0.07%
        Today Daily Open: 1.1369
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 1.1428
        Daily SMA50: 1.1388
        Daily SMA100: 1.146
        Daily SMA200: 1.1599
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 1.1392
        Previous Daily Low: 1.1357
        Previous Weekly High: 1.1491
        Previous Weekly Low: 1.1353
        Previous Monthly High: 1.1486
        Previous Monthly Low: 1.1269
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1378
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.137
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1353
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1338
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1318
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1388
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1407
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1423  

    According to Charlotte de Montpellier, economist at ING, the risks for Switzerland's economic and monetary outlook are to the downside. Key Quotes “

    According to Charlotte de Montpellier, economist at ING, the risks for Switzerland's economic and monetary outlook are to the downside.Key Quotes“The international context could be even less favourable than expected, dragging down exports and pushing up the value of the Swiss franc.” “The difficult negotiations with the EU on the "framework agreement" are not over yet and still bring a lot of uncertainty.” “Federal elections will take place in Switzerland in October 2019. These could lead to a large victory of the main eurosceptic party, which would further cool relations between Switzerland and the EU. Given the current shortage of the labour force and the productivity problems in Switzerland, complicated relations between the two partners would have adverse consequences for the Swiss economy in the short- and medium-term.”

    Mitul Kotecha , senior emerging markets strategist at TD Securities, suggests that weak Chinese trade data has major global ramifications as the front

    Mitul Kotecha , senior emerging markets strategist at TD Securities, suggests that weak Chinese trade data has major global ramifications as the front loading is likely over and the outlook for trade with China has deteriorated.Key Quotes“A US/China trade deal may offer some solace, but we think any relief to Asian trade will be small compared with the impact of slowing US and Chinese growth.” “Similarly, Chinese stimulus is likely to be targeted and nuanced and will only be sufficient to prevent China experiencing a hard landing. Asia will not benefit greatly.” “Tech sector weakness is already particularly apparent and the outlook for Asia's tech exporters has worsened.” “In Asia, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore are most vulnerable, with their currencies likely to feel growing downside competitive pressures in the months ahead.”  

    According to analysts at ANZ, economic momentum in the New Zealand economy is coming off the boil as the QSBO experienced weak trading activity data l

    According to analysts at ANZ, economic momentum in the New Zealand economy is coming off the boil as the QSBO experienced weak trading activity data last week and contributed by the slowing population growth, labour shortages and squeezed profitability.Key Quotes“Growing off a strong base is harder, of course, and the data is still consistent with growth in a 2-3% range, a soft landing by anyone’s standards. But it’s worth taking a sideways look at the darkening clouds gathering around the global outlook.” “Fair to say the news on global manufacturing and trade has been pretty one-sided of late. But other sectors are looking more robust and New Zealand’s commodity prices are so far proving remarkably resilient.” “The highlight of the domestic data calendar this week is Q4 CPI inflation – we expect 0.0% q/q and a slight easing in annual CPI inflation to 1.8%.”

    Following his take on the Chinese economy, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius now speaks about the Brexit issue. Key Headlines: Sees the most

    Following his take on the Chinese economy, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius now speaks about the Brexit issue.Key Headlines:Sees the most likely Brexit scenario as a UK withdrawal from the EU. But a hard Brexit is only a 10% chance. On the EU: He expects very weak Italian growth, worse fiscal numbers.

    Downward pressure on the economy will impact China's job market, the state planner warned on Tuesday, according to Reuters. Key quotes The overall j

    Downward pressure on the economy will impact China's job market, the state planner warned on Tuesday, according to Reuters.Key quotesThe overall job market is stable, although it faces "new changes", said Meng Wei, the spokeswoman at the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). From the viewpoint of 'changes', the external environment is complex and austere. Within the changes, there is something to worry about, and there is downward pressure on the economy. To a certain extent, the pressure will be passed onto jobs. China is capable of keeping its economy growing within a reasonable range. China will encourage foreign firms to invest in its manufacturing sector.

    Trapped in a falling channel, the AUD/USD pair is currently trading at the session low of 0.7143 amid risk aversion in the equity markets. 4-hour cha

    Trapped in a falling channel, the AUD/USD pair is currently trading at the session low of 0.7143 amid risk aversion in the equity markets.4-hour chartThe pair has charted a descending broadening channel on the 4-hour chart. The RSI is biased bearish below 50.00. The lower edge of the channel, currently at 0.7121, could be put to test in the next few hours as the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) downward revision of global growth forecasts has not gone down well with the investor community. This is evident from the risk aversion in the Asian stocks. The futures on the S&P 500are also reporting a 0.54 percent drop. Further, fading prospects for US-China trade accord could keep the risk assets under pressure. Channel breakdown (a move below 0.7121), if confirmed, would imply an end of the corrective bounce from the recent lows below 0.70.  Meanwhile, the upper edge of the channel, currently at 0.72, is the level to beat for the bulls.Trend: Bearish AUD/USD Overview:
        Today Last Price: 0.7141
        Today Daily change: -0.0018 pips
        Today Daily change %: -0.25%
        Today Daily Open: 0.7159
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 0.7117
        Daily SMA50: 0.7183
        Daily SMA100: 0.7171
        Daily SMA200: 0.7314
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 0.7182
        Previous Daily Low: 0.7139
        Previous Weekly High: 0.7226
        Previous Weekly Low: 0.7146
        Previous Monthly High: 0.7394
        Previous Monthly Low: 0.7014
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7156
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7166
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7138
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7117
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7095
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7181
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7203
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7225  

    Credit deceleration (deleveraging) is the main factor responsible for the slowdown in China's economy, according to Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan

    Credit deceleration (deleveraging) is the main factor responsible for the slowdown in China's economy, according to Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius.  The Chinese economy expanded at an annualized rate of 6.4 percent in the fourth quarter, the weakest growth rate since early 2009, pushing the 2018 GDP to a 28-year low.  While most blame the anemic domestic demand and the trade war for Chinese slowdown, Goldman Sachs' Hatzuis believes the crackdown on excess leverage is primarily responsible for cooling economy. Key quotesFed pause in rate hikes is appropriate.  Does not see a need for major changes in global forecasts. Sees some stabilization in the second half of this year. 
     

    The USD/CNH pair (offshore yuan exchange rate) has created a narrowing price range or a contracting triangle on the hourly chart. Hourly chart The

    The USD/CNH pair (offshore yuan exchange rate) has created a narrowing price range or a contracting triangle on the hourly chart.Hourly chartThe 50-hour moving average (HMA) is holding above the 200-HMA and is trending north in favor of the bulls. The ascending triangle breakout on the 14-hour relative strength index (RSI) also indicates that the path of least resistance is on the higher side. USD/CNH, therefore, is likely to confirm a bullish breakout with a convincing move above the upper edge of the triangle, currently at 6.8075. That would open up upside toward 6.8450 (Dec. 5 low).Trend: bullish above 6.8075 USD/CNH Overview:
        Today Last Price: 6.8056
        Today Daily change: 0.0046 pips
        Today Daily change %: 0.07%
        Today Daily Open: 6.801
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 6.8327
        Daily SMA50: 6.8802
        Daily SMA100: 6.8907
        Daily SMA200: 6.7339
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 6.8088
        Previous Daily Low: 6.7917
        Previous Weekly High: 6.8098
        Previous Weekly Low: 6.7396
        Previous Monthly High: 6.9509
        Previous Monthly Low: 6.826
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 6.7982
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 6.8023
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 6.7922
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 6.7834
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 6.7751
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 6.8093
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 6.8176
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 6.8264  

    Analysts at Westpac present a brief preview of New Zealand’s Q4 2018 CPI report due later on Tuesday at 2145 GMT. Key Quotes: “The recent volatility

    Analysts at Westpac present a brief preview of New Zealand’s Q4 2018 CPI report due later on Tuesday at 2145 GMT.Key Quotes:“The recent volatility in fuel prices will end up having little bearing on the December quarter figures, with the average price over the quarter close to unchanged.  While we expect headline inflation to come in a little below the Reserve Bank's November MPS forecast, that's entirely due to the subsequent drop in fuel prices. In contrast, we think underlying inflation will be stronger than the RBNZ's forecast, reflecting the tightening labor market and the lower New Zealand dollar.”

    China's State Planner is out on the wires stating that the world's second largest economy does not pursue high-speed growth and will aim for a higher-

    China's State Planner is out on the wires stating that the world's second largest economy does not pursue high-speed growth and will aim for a higher-quality growth. Essentially, China is unlikely to counter the ongoing economic slowdown with "flood-like" stimulus, as that usually leads to debt driven high-speed growth.

    Gold is currently trading at $1,278; down 0.37 percent on the day. The yellow metal charted a bearish-lower high at $1,283.50 yesterday, validating t

    Gold is under pressure in Asia, having witnessed range breakdown on Jan. 18.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) trimmed global growth forecasts on Monday. Sino-US trade talks are making little progress on key issues.The S&P 500 futures are reporting losses at press time. Even so, the yellow metal is struggling to find bids.Gold is currently trading at $1,278; down 0.37 percent on the day. The yellow metal charted a bearish-lower high at $1,283.50 yesterday, validating the range breakdown witnessed on Friday despite global growth concerns and the fading prospect of a breakthrough US-China trade deal. The IMF lowered estimates for growth in 2019 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.5%, its second downward revision, this time on account of weakness in Germany and Turkey, according to CNN. The agency also cited trade war and Brexit as risks to the global economy. Notably, the Sino-US trade war is far from over. Moreover, both sides have made little or no progress on key issues like Chinese theft of American intellectual property. Hence, it is not surprising to see the futures on the S&P 500 trade in the red. As of writing, the futures are down 0.54 percent. Major Asian indices like Nikkei, S&P ASX 200, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are also reporting losses. Even so, the safe haven yellow metal is under pressure. So, it could be argued that the technical factors are overshadowing the fundamentals. As a result, the metal risks falling to $1,266 (23.6% Fib R of Aug low/Jan high).Gold Technical LevelsXAU/USD Overview:
        Today Last Price: 1278.9
        Today Daily change: 2.90 pips
        Today Daily change %: 0.23%
        Today Daily Open: 1276
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 1284.24
        Daily SMA50: 1254.11
        Daily SMA100: 1233.77
        Daily SMA200: 1228.68
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 1283.63
        Previous Daily Low: 1275.9
        Previous Weekly High: 1295.9
        Previous Weekly Low: 1276.2
        Previous Monthly High: 1284.7
        Previous Monthly Low: 1221.39
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1278.85
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1280.68
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 1273.39
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 1270.78
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 1265.66
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 1281.12
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 1286.24
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 1288.85  

    Japanese Finance Minister Taro was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, noting that its important fx rates are stable during the Golden Week holida

    Japanese Finance Minister Taro was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, noting that its important fx rates are stable during the Golden Week holidays. Aso further added that he does not expect any sort of crisis situation. It’s worth noting that the Golden Week holidays in Japan are from April 29th to May 6th. Earlier today, Japan's 40-year bond yield hit the lowest since December 2016

    According to Bloomberg, the industry analysts and economists believe that China isn’t likely to rebound from its slowdown any time soon even amid sign

    According to Bloomberg, the industry analysts and economists believe that China isn’t likely to rebound from its slowdown any time soon even amid signs policy makers are successfully cushioning some of its slowdown. Katrina Ell, an economist with Moody’s Analytics in Sydney, noted: “If China continues with its measured and piecemeal approach to stimulus, global growth will continue to lose momentum. The big unknown is how far China will go. Beijing’s preference has been to avoid repeating previous massive stimulus support, but they may be forced into more aggressive action if momentum continues to wane.” Capital Economics estimatea slower China expansion will shave about 0.2 percentage point off global growth this year, compared to 2018. Citigroup Inc. warned in a Jan. 14 note that the China slowdown may “blow the global economy off course.”  Chang Shu and David Qu at Bloomberg Economics said: “While the data appear to tell a "glass half full, half empty" story, market sentiment might be helped by the improvement in the indicators’ second derivatives -- in other words, the slower pace of deterioration -- and expectations of more policy support.”

    The yields on the long duration Japanese government bonds (JGB) are feeling the pull of gravity. Notably, the 40-year JGB yield fell below 0.780 perc

    The yields on the long duration Japanese government bonds (JGB) are feeling the pull of gravity. Notably, the 40-year JGB yield fell below 0.780 percent a few minutes before press time; the lowest level since December 2016. The decline could be associated with the 0.5 percent drop in the S&P 500 futures and the resulting haven demand for JGBs.

    The AUD/JPY cross is trading in a sideways manner for the second day, having charted a doji candle on Friday, which represents indecision in the marke

    The AUD/JPY cross is trading in a sideways manner for the second day, having charted a doji candle on Friday, which represents indecision in the marketplace.Daily chartFriday's doji indicates that the recovery rally from the Jan. 4 low of 75.24 has likely run out of steam. A convincing close below 78.39 (low of doji candle) would confirm a bear reversal. Meanwhile, 79.10 (high of doji candle) is the level to beat for the bulls. With the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) still biased bearish, the probability of a break below 78.39 is high. After all, the prospects of breakthrough US-China trade deal is quite low.Hourly chartThe pair is struggling to gather upside traction despite the ascending triangle breakout on the hourly chart. That only validates the bullish exhaustion signaled by Friday's doji candle.Trend: teasing bear reversal AUD/JPY Overview:
        Today Last Price: 78.45
        Today Daily change: -0.07 pips
        Today Daily change %: -0.09%
        Today Daily Open: 78.52
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 77.72
        Daily SMA50: 80.07
        Daily SMA100: 80.36
        Daily SMA200: 81.31
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 78.72
        Previous Daily Low: 78.28
        Previous Weekly High: 79.11
        Previous Weekly Low: 77.56
        Previous Monthly High: 84.05
        Previous Monthly Low: 77.15
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 78.45
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 78.55
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 78.3
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 78.07
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 77.85
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 78.74
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 78.95
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 79.18  

    China’s state news agency, Xinhua, reported the latest comments delivered by the Chinese President Xi Jinping at an 'an unusual meeting of China's top

    China’s state news agency, Xinhua, reported the latest comments delivered by the Chinese President Xi Jinping at an 'an unusual meeting of China's top leaders' on Monday in Beijing.Key Quotes (courtesy Bloomberg):Communist Party needed greater efforts "to prevent and resolve major risks".  "The party is facing long-term and complex tests in terms of maintaining long-term rule, reform and opening-up, a market-driven economy, and within the external environment.” "The party is facing sharp and serious dangers of slackness in spirit, lack of ability, distance from the people, and being passive and corrupt. This is an overall judgment based on the actual situation."

    The Times newspaper reported the latest comments by the UK’s Work and Pensions Minister Amber Rudd warns over another UK political upheaval amid ongoi

    The Times newspaper reported the latest comments by the UK’s Work and Pensions Minister Amber Rudd warns over another UK political upheaval amid ongoing Brexit saga. Rudd is “warning No 10 that it could face dozens of ministerial resignations next week if Tory MPs are banned from voting for a plan that helps stop a no-deal Brexit.” 

    The People's Bank of China set the yuan reference rate at 6.7854 vs the previous day's fix of 6.7774.

    The People's Bank of China set the yuan reference rate at 6.7854 vs the previous day's fix of 6.7774.

    WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) extends its overnight consolidative mode into Asia, as the bulls continue to face exhaustion near seven-week tops of 54.48

    Lifted by OPEC output cuts, falling rigs count while global growth concerns keep the upside capped.Focus on US-China trade talks and US supply reports for fresh trades. WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) extends its overnight consolidative mode into Asia, as the bulls continue to face exhaustion near seven-week tops of 54.48 levels. The black gold trades modestly flat in today’s trading so far, as the sentiment remains weighed by global growth concerns after both the IMF and United Nations (UN) downgraded their outlooks. Meanwhile, the latest Chinese GDP report confirmed China slowdown fears and added further to the gloomy global economic outlook. On Monday, the barrel of WTI extended its last week’s rally and hit fresh multi-week tops amid positive oil supply-side scenario, with the OPEC output cuts underway and falling US rigs count. According to the latest drilling sector activity report released by the US energy services firm Baker Hughes, energy companies cut the number of rigs drilling for oil by 21 last week, the biggest decline in three years, taking the count down to 852, the lowest since May 2018, Reuters cited. Markets now look forward to the US-China trade talks and sentiment on the global equities for fresh momentum until the release of the API crude stockpiles data due tomorrow.WTI Technical Levels WTI Overview:
        Today Last Price: 53.97
        Today Daily change: -0.26 pips
        Today Daily change %: -0.48%
        Today Daily Open: 54.23
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 49.63
        Daily SMA50: 50.88
        Daily SMA100: 59.56
        Daily SMA200: 64.03
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 54.51
        Previous Daily Low: 53.6
        Previous Weekly High: 54.17
        Previous Weekly Low: 50.65
        Previous Monthly High: 54.68
        Previous Monthly Low: 42.45
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 54.16
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 53.95
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 53.72
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 53.2
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 52.81
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 54.63
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 55.02
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 55.54  

    USD/JPY has been a sideways drift on Monday following a risk-off European session that morphed into a quiet North America session with traders away on

    USD/JPY is currently consolidated at the 50% Fibo retracement of the Oct decline to YTD low at 109.75ish, depending on where your broker marks the flash crash low. USD/JPY is currently trading at 109.62, slightly up from the Asian low at 109.59 and below the 109.70 high. USD/JPY has been a sideways drift on Monday following a risk-off European session that morphed into a quiet North America session with traders away on a long weekend, honouring the Martin Luther King Jr day.  However, headlines continued to roll out following the IMF's second recent downgrade of global growth and soft Chinese data, which is concerning investors following a spree of risk on trade that has seen a strong recovery in USD/JPY.  "Media reports of hurdles in the US-China trade negotiations over intellectual property and the lowering of IMF forecasts added to the mild softening in sentiment, especially given the IMF report stressing increased downside risks from protracted trade disputes and Brexit uncertainty," analysts at Westpac Bank explained.  Futures yields were generally softer, reflecting the slip in risk sentiment as well which could come into play when US traders return into the 29th day of the partial US government shutdown, with S&P futures currently -0.3%.  "The partial federal government shutdown enters its fourth week, the longest on record in modern times, with no end in sight. The adverse effects on the US economy grow geometrically with the length of the shutdown; the CEA estimates the GDP growth drag is now 0.13pp per week. At this point, the earliest Dec PCE inflation or Q4 GDP growth will be released is well into February," analysts at TD Securities explained. The week aheadFor the day ahead, the calendar is dead, although the week will pick up when full markets return and a number of risk events start to kick in, including Aussie jobs, NZ CPI and the ECB decision - likely to be the main event of the week outside of any unscheduled geopolitical noise and headlines that have the tendency to move the markets one way or the other. USD/JPY levelsSupport levels: 109.40 109.05 108.65.          Resistance levels: 110.00 110.45 110.90.Valeria Bednarik, the Chief Analyst at FXStreet, explained that from a technical point of view, the pair holds on to its positive stance: "Technical indicators in the mentioned chart remain directionless well above their midlines and barely retreating from their daily highs. A steeper recovery will likely come once stops get triggered beyond 110.00, while the risk will probably turn back south if the pair losses 109.05, a strong Fibonacci support."

    The latest Reuters Corporate Survey showed that a majority of the Japanese firms want to maintain their capex plan in the next fiscal year. Key Findi

    The latest Reuters Corporate Survey showed that a majority of the Japanese firms want to maintain their capex plan in the next fiscal year.Key Findings:“52% of Japan firms to keep capex plan steady next fiscal year, 22% to expand, 14% to increase moderately, 12% to cut. 42% plan to hike base pay this year, of which 75% to raise by as much as last year. 41% expect profit to fall next FY due to trade friction, protectionism; 38% expect sales decline; a quarter to review supply chain.”

    The bears continue to guard the 141.50 barrier, leaving the GBP/JPY cross largely unchanged in a tight range, as the focus shifts towards the UK labor

    May’s Plan B keep the GBP underpinned, as risk bites amid global growth concerns.Looks bullish on hourly set up, a test of 142.00 likely on upbeat UK wages. The bears continue to guard the 141.50 barrier, leaving the GBP/JPY cross largely unchanged in a tight range, as the focus shifts towards the UK labor market report for a fresh directional move.   Despite the consolidation phase, the cross remains underpinned by the buoyant tone seen around the Cable, as markets cheered the UK PM May’s Brexit plan B, in which she cited that the UK government doesn’t rule out a no-deal Brexit while turning down on the idea of a second referendum. However, with the safe-haven Yen in demand across the board amid global growth concerns, the spot remains on the defensive so far this session, but looks poised for further upside and could test the 142 handle should the UK jobs data deliver a positive surprise in the November earnings numbers.GBP/JPY Technical LevelsGBP/JPY Overview:
        Today Last Price: 141.39
        Today Daily change: -0.03 pips
        Today Daily change %: -0.02%
        Today Daily Open: 141.42
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 139.47
        Daily SMA50: 142.11
        Daily SMA100: 144.45
        Daily SMA200: 145.48
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 141.54
        Previous Daily Low: 140.69
        Previous Weekly High: 142.22
        Previous Weekly Low: 137.36
        Previous Monthly High: 145.52
        Previous Monthly Low: 138.86
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 141.21
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 141.01
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 140.89
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 140.37
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 140.04
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 141.75
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 142.07
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 142.6  

    Markets traded mostly quietly given the US holiday overnight but European equities weakened a little despite as traders soaked up the soft Chinese dat

    Global growth fears spark up risk-off trade, playing into the bear's hands.With US markets closed on Monday, AUD/USD edged down around -0.2% over the day, reflecting slightly softer risk sentiment in Europe and the cross slid to print a fresh hourly swing low in the corrective phase.AUD/JPY is currently trading at 78.48, slightly below the daily pivot point.Markets traded mostly quietly given the US holiday overnight but European equities weakened a little despite as traders soaked up the soft Chinese data and ignored the robust performance in Asia's gains. AUD/USD was a touch lower on the day, around 0.7160 which sent the cross lower to print a fresh hourly swing low of 78.28. Despite the Chinese data dump and softness, the IMF shaving 0.2%pts off their 2019 global growth forecast to 3.5% was the big noise in the markets. The fund is citing softer momentum in H2 2018, particularly across Europe, which is weakening financial market sentiment ahead of the ECB later this week and weighs on high beta FX such as the antipodes. The fund's 2020 outlook was trimmed 0.1%pts to 3.6% and is the second downgrade in a row (the last was in October).Eyes on Brexit and China risks"While there have been some positive developments in recent weeks (some rebound in manufacturing data and progress towards US-China trade talks), risks remain skewed towards weaker growth, with a “no deal” Brexit and a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China getting a special mention," analysts at ANZ Bank explained.  Australia’s calendar is quiet again today but we have the Dec employment data on Thursday. AUD/JPY levels  AUD/JPY is chipping away at the downside, eyeing a break of S1 located at 78.37 and target  S2 and the confluence of the round 78 level and 200-hr SMA at 78.13 just slightly ahead. There is a cluster of fractals located around S3 at 77.74. On the flip side, should the price manage to break through the weekly pivot of 78.50 and close higher than 79.10, this would leave a bullish tint on the market considering the 38.2% Fibo retracement of the mid-Sep 2017 and 2018 decline at 78.75 has been left behind and bulls are in charge, targetting weekly R3 ad confluence of the 505 Fibo of the same retracement at 80.94/84 respectively.     

    Its annual economic forecast, the “World Economic Situation and Prospects, released late-Monday, the United Nations (UN) noted that it sees the global

    Its annual economic forecast, the “World Economic Situation and Prospects, released late-Monday, the United Nations (UN) noted that it sees the global economy to grow 3.0% this year and in 2020, slightly below a 3.1% expansion in 2018.Key Comments from Richard Kozul-Wright, Head of Globalization and Development Strategies at the UN economic agency UNCTAD.“There are plenty of yellow lights flashing and some of those yellow lights are almost certainly likely to turn red over the coming year, with very unpredictable consequences.”  “Growth is fragile, huge uncertainties remain, risks are looming. We have not broken away from the legacy of the financial crisis of 2008-2009. We are still in a new abnormal.”

    Oil daily chart Crude oil WTI is in a bear trend below the 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). However, bulls broke above the 54.00 fig

    Oil daily chartCrude oil WTI is in a bear trend below the 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs).However, bulls broke above the 54.00 figure and the 50 SMA.Oil 4-hour chartWTI bulls have reclaimed the main SMAs suggesting bullish momentum in the near-term.Oil 30-minute chartWTI is set to depreciate below the 54.50 resistance as bears might lead the market to 53.50 support. Additional key levels  WTI Overview:
        Today Last Price: 54.23
        Today Daily change: 0.12 pips
        Today Daily change %: 0.22%
        Today Daily Open: 54.11
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 49.2
        Daily SMA50: 50.93
        Daily SMA100: 59.71
        Daily SMA200: 64.11
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 54.17
        Previous Daily Low: 52.4
        Previous Weekly High: 54.17
        Previous Weekly Low: 50.65
        Previous Monthly High: 54.68
        Previous Monthly Low: 42.45
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 53.49
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 53.08
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 52.95
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 51.79
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 51.18
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 54.72
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 55.33
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 56.49  

    South Korea Gross Domestic Product Growth (YoY) came in at 3.1%, above forecasts (2.8%) in 4Q

    South Korea Gross Domestic Product Growth (QoQ) came in at 1%, above forecasts (0.6%) in 4Q

    Italy’s Economy Minister Tria was on the wires earlier today, via Reuters, making some comments on the IMF’s global growth downgrade and the Brexit is

    Italy’s Economy Minister Tria was on the wires earlier today, via Reuters, making some comments on the IMF’s global growth downgrade and the Brexit issue.Main Headlines:Policies recommended by IMF pose economic risks. Italy does not pose risk to European/global economy. Italy is working on rules to face possible hard Brexit. Italian public finances not at risk. It is completely wrong to discuss now of additional budget measures for 2019.

    The AUD/USD pair continues to trade around a flat line around the 0.7155 level in early trades, having faltered the recovery from 0.7140 troughs amid

    Digesting Trump’s comments on China GDP while global growth concerns continue to weigh. Bulls await the sentiment on the Tokyo open for the next push higher. The AUD/USD pair continues to trade around a flat line around the 0.7155 level in early trades, having faltered the recovery from 0.7140 troughs amid a cautious risk environment, as markets digest the latest Chinese GDP numbers and the downward revision to the global growth outlook by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Chinese GDP report showed that the country’s economic growth slowed down to 6.4% in Q4 2018, the weakest since 1990. Meanwhile, the bulls derive support from the latest comments by the US President Trump, as he called for China to reach a “Real” trade deal following the dismal economic growth figures. Further, markets await fresh trading impetus from the Tokyo open, as the US holiday-led thin trading has had virtually no impact on the spot. In the day ahead, the focus remains on the US-China trade-related headlines and the US existing home sales data for near-term trading opportunities. In the meantime, the pair will continue to take its cues from the risk trends and USD dynamics.AUD/USD Technical LevelsAUD/USD Overview:
        Today Last Price: 0.7156
        Today Daily change: -0.0012 pips
        Today Daily change %: -0.17%
        Today Daily Open: 0.7168
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 0.7112
        Daily SMA50: 0.7183
        Daily SMA100: 0.7172
        Daily SMA200: 0.7317
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 0.7215
        Previous Daily Low: 0.7161
        Previous Weekly High: 0.7226
        Previous Weekly Low: 0.7146
        Previous Monthly High: 0.7394
        Previous Monthly Low: 0.7014
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7182
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7194
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7148
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7128
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7095
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7202
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7235
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7255  

    US markets were closed for Martin Luther King Day so European markets were therefore quiet. However, equities remained under downward pressure which d

    NZD/USD has been giving off bearish smoke signals with a pop lower overnight to score a fresh swing low of 0.6713 within the negative flow.  NZD/USD edged down around -0.2% over the day, reflecting slightly softer risk sentiment in Europe.US markets were closed for Martin Luther King Day so European markets were therefore quiet. However, equities remained under downward pressure which dragged on high beta currencies such as the bird. Investors are anxious over the global growth outlook that continues following yesterday’s mixed Chinese GDP release and another downgrade for the global growth outlook from the IMF.   "USD rallied on trade concerns and as weakness in Chinese data weighed on commodity currencies (though it perhaps wasn’t as bad as some had feared)," analysts at ANZ Bank explained. "Eyes now turn to NZ CPI tomorrow. A negative or a widely-expected zero print could weigh, with markets increasingly expecting a more dovish RBNZ in February. In our view, the mix of inflation will matter; watch the non-tradable component."NZD/USD levelsSupport 0.6650  Resistance 0.6860 The price was rejected the 200-hr SMA on two breakup occasions of late and the doji formed on the 14th Jan has played out into a series of lower highs on a daily time frame basis. Overnight price action has printed a fresh swing low and technical indicators remain bearish. The price is now testing below the 21-D SMA located at 0.6740 with a confluence of the 25th Nov pivotal low and a break below there will open up 0.6705. A break of the 100-D SMA at 0.6688 with daily closes will sure up the negative bias again, especially on a break back below the 23.6% Fibo.

    A German Government Spokesman is out on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that Germany continues to campaign for an orderly exit of the UK from the E

    A German Government Spokesman is out on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that Germany continues to campaign for an orderly exit of the UK from the European Union (EU). The official also added Germany expects the British government to agree soon on proposals backed by a majority of parliament.

    DXY daily chart DXY is trading in a bull trend above the 100 and 200-day simple moving average (SMA). DXY 4-hour chart DXY bulls have reclai

    DXY daily chartDXY is trading in a bull trend above the 100 and 200-day simple moving average (SMA).DXY 4-hour chartDXY bulls have reclaimed the 50 and 100 SMA but they need to overcome the 200 SMA. DXY 30-minute chartDXY bulls are still in charge and they might reach the 96.50 target as they have the momentum on their side.However, it is unlikely that any sustained move above 96.50 might go very far as 96.00 is still on the card for DXY bears. Additional key levels  Dollar Index Spot Overview:
        Today Last Price: 96.34
        Today Daily change: -0.03 pips
        Today Daily change %: -0.03%
        Today Daily Open: 96.37
    Trends:
        Daily SMA20: 96.18
        Daily SMA50: 96.65
        Daily SMA100: 96.07
        Daily SMA200: 95.02
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 96.4
        Previous Daily Low: 96.01
        Previous Weekly High: 96.4
        Previous Weekly Low: 95.47
        Previous Monthly High: 97.71
        Previous Monthly Low: 96.06
        Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 96.25
        Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 96.16
        Daily Pivot Point S1: 96.12
        Daily Pivot Point S2: 95.87
        Daily Pivot Point S3: 95.73
        Daily Pivot Point R1: 96.51
        Daily Pivot Point R2: 96.65
        Daily Pivot Point R3: 96.9  

    Reuters reports the latest update on the Brexit issue, citing that the UK opposition party, the Labor Party, proposes the option of a second Brexit re

    Reuters reports the latest update on the Brexit issue, citing that the UK opposition party, the Labor Party, proposes the option of a second Brexit referendum. Nothing further is reported on the same. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair trades better bid just shy of the 1.29 handle, as markets digest the UK PM May’s Plan B.Key Notes:UK shares soak up Chinese data and Plan B Brexit; FTSE ended +0.03% UK PM May: Looking forward to seeing Poland's proposal for time limit on backstop

    The US President Donald Trump took to Twitter to offer his thoughts on the latest Chinese growth numbers released a day before.

    The US President Donald Trump took to Twitter to offer his thoughts on the latest Chinese growth numbers released a day before.
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