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    Forex News Timeline

    Friday, March 22, 2019

    France Markit PMI Composite came in at 48.7, below expectations (50.7) in March

    France Markit Services PMI registered at 48.7, below expectations (50.7) in March

    France Markit Manufacturing PMI below expectations (51.5) in March: Actual (49.8)

    Aila Mihr, analyst at Danske Bank, notes that the EUR/GBP cross moved higher yesterday, as the EU leaders discussed whether to grant the UK an extensi

    Aila Mihr, analyst at Danske Bank, notes that the EUR/GBP cross moved higher yesterday, as the EU leaders discussed whether to grant the UK an extension or not.Key Quotes“Leaks from the discussions among the EU leaders suggested that they are more hawkish on Brexit than Tusk, Juncker and Barnier - as we highlighted in our daily yesterday. There was not really any movement after the meeting concluded, as in reality, the discussions we have had over the past two weeks will just continue for a few more weeks.” “If a deal passes, we still expect EUR/GBP to move lower towards 0.83, as markets can price out the immediate no deal Brexit risk premium. If we end with a long extension, EUR/GBP should move slightly lower but continue trading in the 0.85-0.87 range. If we end up with a no deal Brexit, EUR/GBP will move towards 1.00.”

       •  Renewed USD selling/weaker bond yields keep a lid on the overnight attempted bounce.    •  Bulls seemed rather unimpressed by today’s softer Jap

       •  Renewed USD selling/weaker bond yields keep a lid on the overnight attempted bounce.
       •  Bulls seemed rather unimpressed by today’s softer Japanese core CPI/manufacturing PMI.    The USD/JPY pair failed to capitalize on the overnight attempted rebound from five-week lows and traded with a mild negative bias through the early European session on Friday. The US Dollar struggled to preserve/build on the previous session's goodish recovery gains from the lowest level since early February and remained depressed on the back of an ultra-dovish FOMC statement, indicating that there will be no more rate hikes in 2019. Bearish traders further took cues from the ongoing decline in the US Treasury bond yields, which coupled with a cautious mood around equity markets, further underpinned the Japanese Yen's safe-haven status and exerted some downward pressure. Meanwhile, today's release of softer Japanese economic data - national core CPI and flash manufacturing PMI, failed to provide any additional boost to the domestic currency and turned out to be the only factors lending some support/limit deeper losses. There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release from the US and hence, the USD price dynamics/broader market risk sentiment might continue to influence the price action/produce some trading opportunities on the last trading day of the week. Technical levels to watchImmediate support is pegged near the 110.60 area and is closely followed by the 110.30-25 region, below which the pair is likely to break below the key 110.00 psychological mark and test the 109.70-60 support zone. On the flip side, the 111.00 handle might continue to cap any attempted bounce, which if cleared might trigger a short-covering rally back towards the very important 200-day SMA, currently near the 111.45-50 region.
     

    Deutsche Bank analysts note that in the middle of political turbulence in the UK, the Bank of England’s MPC voted to keep interest rates unchanged at

    Deutsche Bank analysts note that in the middle of political turbulence in the UK, the Bank of England’s MPC voted to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.75%, in line with market expectations.Key Quotes“Regarding Brexit, the minutes said that “Brexit uncertainties had also continued to weigh on confidence and short-term economic activity, notably business investment.” In terms of the future path of monetary policy, the minutes said that “were the economy to develop broadly in line with its February Inflation Report projections, an ongoing tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period, at a gradual pace and to a limited extent, would be appropriate to return inflation sustainably to the 2% target at a conventional horizon.”

       •  USD fails to capitalize on the overnight rebound and helps regain traction.    •  Dovish Fed outlook/renewed US-China trade tensions remained su

       •  USD fails to capitalize on the overnight rebound and helps regain traction.
       •  Dovish Fed outlook/renewed US-China trade tensions remained supportive.    Gold quickly reversed an Asian session dip to $1307 area and is currently placed at session tops, recovering all of the previous session's modest pull-back from three-week tops.  The US Dollar failed to capitalize on the overnight rebound from the post-FOMC slump to the lowest level since early February and eventually turned out to be one of the key factors underpinning demand for the dollar-denominated commodity. With investors looking past Thursday's upbeat US economic data, an ultra-dovish FOMC - indicating that there will be no more rate hikes in 2019, kept the USD under pressure and provided an additional boost to the non-yielding yellow metal.  This coupled with resurfacing US-China trade tensions, especially after the US President Donald Trump said to keep tariffs on China for a substantial period of time, further benefitted the precious metal's relative safe-haven status and remained supportive. Adding to this, the fact that the commodity has managed to hold its neck above the key $1300 psychological mark could be another factor attracting some technical buying and contributing to the positive move for the fifth session in the previous five. In absence of any major market moving US economic releases, the USD price dynamics and the broader market risk sentiment might continue to act as key determinants of the commodity's move on the last trading day of the week. Technical levels to watchA follow-through buying has the potential to lift the metal back towards $1320 supply zone before bulls eventually aim towards testing the next major hurdle near the $1329-30 region. On the flip side, any meaningful retracement might continue to find some support ahead of the $1300 handle, below which the commodity might accelerate the slide further towards $1294-93 horizontal support.
     

    Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, explains that the EUR/USD pair has broken up from a falling wedge pattern, but has faltered ahead of initial resi

    Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, explains that the EUR/USD pair has broken up from a falling wedge pattern, but has faltered ahead of initial resistance at the 200 day ma at 1.1478 and the 1.1570 January high together with the 55 week ma at 1.1630.Key Quotes“This is a reversal pattern and it is bullish it implies that 1.1176 is an interim low in place. Dips should find initial support at the 1.1329 20 day ma, this should now hold the downside for further upside attempts.” “Below 1.1185/75 (61.8% retracement) lies the 1.1110, the May 2017 low and the 1.0814/78.6% retracement.”

    Aila Mihr, analyst at Danske Bank, notes that the EU Council decided to offer the UK a very short unconditional extension of the Brexit deadline of tw

    Aila Mihr, analyst at Danske Bank, notes that the EU Council decided to offer the UK a very short unconditional extension of the Brexit deadline of two weeks to 12 April, with a possible extension to 22 May if the House of Commons passes the Withdrawal Agreement before that.Key Quotes“If the House of Commons rejects the deal again, the UK will either leave without a deal on 12 April or alternatively indicate a way forward for the EU Council to consider (i.e., among other things, accept participating in the European Elections in May). PM Theresa May accepted the terms.” “Basically, the EU leaders’ agreement means that the UK has one more time to pass the deal but keeping the option of a long extension on the table. At the moment, a long extension seems more likely than the deal passing, as during the many votes in the House of Commons we saw a majority wanting to take a no deal Brexit off the table while May has still not found a majority for her deal as of now. That said, we have to watch the response from UK politicians in the coming days to see whether there will be a change of positions in British politics.”

    German/ Eurozone flash PMIs Overview Amongst the Euro area economies, the German and the composite Eurozone PMI reports hold more relevance, in terms

    German/ Eurozone flash PMIs OverviewAmongst the Euro area economies, the German and the composite Eurozone PMI reports hold more relevance, in terms of its impact on the European currency and the related markets as well. The forecast for the Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI shows 49.5 for March vs. 49.3 seen in the previous month. The Eurozone services sector PMI is seen coming in at 52.7 in the reported month versus 52.8 last. The flash manufacturing PMI for Germany is seen arriving at 48.0 in March, a tad firmer from February’s 47.6 final print while the index for the services sector is expected to tick lower to 54.8 this month versus 55.3 seen in the previous month.How could they affect EUR/USD?Upbeat manufacturing PMI readings could help the EUR/USD pair regain 1.1400 (round number). Above which the upside momentum could gain traction, with eyes set on 1.1437/50 (Mar 21 and 22 high). A sustained break above the last could open doors for a test of 1.1479 (200-DMA/ daily classic R2). On the flip side, if the readings miss the consensus forecasts, the spot could stall the recovery momentum and turn south in a bid to test the 1.1355 (50-DMA), below which the next supports are placed at 1.1300 (key support) and 1.1274 (Feb 19 low).Key NotesEurozone: Focus on PMIs data – TDS EUR/USD Forecast: Rejected near 50% Fibo. level; set to resume the previous bearish trend? EUR futures: consolidation likely near termAbout German/ Eurozone flash PMIsThe Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in the Euro Zone. Usually, a result above 50 signals is bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.

    The German Chambers of Commerce is out with its response on the 2-weeks Brexit deadline extensions agreed by the European Union (EU) late-Thursday. T

    The German Chambers of Commerce is out with its response on the 2-weeks Brexit deadline extensions agreed by the European Union (EU) late-Thursday. The German body noted that Brexit delay doesn’t solve the UK PM May’s problem.

       •  Renewed US-China trade tensions weigh on Aussie and seemed to cap the up-move.    •  The USD fails to capitalize on the overnight bounce and hel

       •  Renewed US-China trade tensions weigh on Aussie and seemed to cap the up-move.
       •  The USD fails to capitalize on the overnight bounce and helped limit the downside.     After yesterday's sharp pull-back from three-week tops, the AUD/USD pair now seems to have stabilized and was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band around the 0.7100 handle. The pair stalled its recent positive momentum and witnessed an intraday retracement slide of over 70-pips on Thursday. With investors looking past an ultra-dovish FOMC, a goodish US Dollar rebound from the lowest level since early February turned out to be one of the key factors prompting some fresh selling at higher levels.  This coupled with resurfacing US-China trade tensions, which largely offset Thursday's unexpected dip in the Aussie unemployment rate, further drove flows away from the China-proxy Australian Dollar and collaborated the pair's overnight retracement slide of over 70-pips. Meanwhile, the greenback failed to capitalize on the previous session's goodish up-move and helped limit further downside, albeit a modest drop in the Aussie flash manufacturing PMI, coming at 52.0 for March vs. 52.9 previous, failed to provide any meaningful impetus and led to a subdued/range-bound price action on Friday. In absence of any major market moving economic releases, the USD price dynamics and any fresh trade-related headlines might act as key determinants of the pair's momentum on the last trading day of the week. Technical levels to watchA follow-through retracement below the 0.7085 horizontal zone is likely to accelerate the slide towards weekly lows, around the 0.7055 region, below which the pair might turn vulnerable to aim back towards challenging the key 0.70 psychological mark. On the flip side, the 0.7125-30 region now seems to act as an immediate resistance, which if cleared might lift the pair back towards the 0.7165-70 region en-route the 0.7200 round figure mark.
     

    The shared currency seems to have resumed the upside on Friday and is now lifting EUR/USD to the 1.1380 zone, or daily highs. EUR/USD looks to PMIs,

    The pair edges higher to the 1.1380 region on Friday.The greenback extends the sideline theme so far.Advanced manufacturing/services PMIs next of relevance.The shared currency seems to have resumed the upside on Friday and is now lifting EUR/USD to the 1.1380 zone, or daily highs.EUR/USD looks to PMIs, BrexitThe pair manages to reverse part of yesterday’s moderate pullback in response to some recovery in the buck following the dovish message at the FOMC meeting on the previous day. Today’s uptick in spot comes along a better mood in the risk-associated universe in spite of less auspicious news on the US-China trade front, as the ongoing trade dispute could extend more than expected according to Trump’s latest comments. In addition, EUR keeps following the events around the Brexit negotiations, where EU leaders agreed to extend the deadline to May 22 if the UK Parliament passes May’s plan next week. On a different outcome, the EU will allow a shorter delay, until April 12. Later in the session, EUR is expected to remain under the microscope in light of the publication of preliminary manufacturing and services PMIs in core Euroland for the current month. Today’s releases have gained importance amidst the ongoing slowdown in the region. Across the ocean, Markit will also release its advanced manufacturing/services gauges along with results from the housing sector and the speech by Atlanta Fed Chief R.Bostic.What to look for around EURMarket participants have left behind the recent and renewed dovish stance from the ECB, focusing instead on the broad risk-appetite trends and USD-dynamics as the main drivers of the price action. Looking to the broader picture, the performance of the economy in the region should remain in centre stage along with prospects of re-assessment of the ECB’s monetary policy. In this regard, it is worth mentioning that investors keep pricing in the first rate hike by the central bank at some point in H2 2020. On the political front, headwinds are expected to emerge in light of the upcoming EU parliamentary elections, where the focus of attention will be on the potential increase of the populist option among voters.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is up 0.05% at 1.1378 and a breakout of 1.1448 (high Mar.20) would target 1.1478 (200-day SMA) en route to 1.1514 (high Jan.31).  On the downside, the immediate support aligns at 1.1364 (55-day SMA) seconded by 1.1328 (21-day SMA) and finally 1.1234 (low Feb.15).

    Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the CBR to keep the Key Rate to stay on hold at 7.75% in Russia. Key Quotes “The CBR will be fairly happy wi

    Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the CBR to keep the Key Rate to stay on hold at 7.75% in Russia.Key Quotes“The CBR will be fairly happy with developments since the 8 February Board meeting. The impact of the VAT hikes that came at the start of this year has not been as bad as the CBR feared and USDRUB is down about 2.6%, making it one of the better performing EM currencies over this period.” “On the FX side, we expect little immediate response or some modest move up in USDRUB if the press statement or the press conference strike a more dovish tone, but that is not our expectation.”

    FX option expiries for Mar 22 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts  1.1300 619m 1.1350 846m  1.140

    FX option expiries for Mar 22 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts  1.1300 619m 1.1350 846m  1.1400 2.3bn  1.1425 895m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts  1.3200 395m  - USD/JPY: USD amounts  110.00 829m  110.30 605m  110.40 840m  110.50 1.1bn  110.65 950m  110.90 1.3bn 110.95 570m  111.00 1.4bn 111.05 359m  111.75 2.0bn - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.7050 765m 0.7075 518m  0.7110 602m

    CME Group’s advanced figures for GBP futures noted open interest rose by almost 4.4K contracts on Thursday from the previous day. In the same line, vo

    CME Group’s advanced figures for GBP futures noted open interest rose by almost 4.4K contracts on Thursday from the previous day. In the same line, volume rose for the second session in a row, this time by more than 39K contracts.GBP/USD supported around 1.3000Choppy trade prevails around Cable pari passu with increasing uncertainty around the Brexit negotiations. Yesterday’s rebound from the 1.3000 region was in tandem with rising open interest and volume, adding to the view that this area still represents a solid contention.

    Preliminary figures for EUR futures markets noted investors scaled back their open interest positions by nearly 7.9K contracts on Thursday from Wednes

    Preliminary figures for EUR futures markets noted investors scaled back their open interest positions by nearly 7.9K contracts on Thursday from Wednesday’s final 493,906 contracts. On the other hand, volume increased by almost 26.5K contracts.EUR/USD appears sidelined below 1.1400The upside momentum in EUR/USD has eased somewhat in past hours in tandem with decreasing open interest while volume kept ticking higher. That said, the recent inability to hold the trade above the 1.1400 handle prompts some consolidation around current levels.

    Analysts at Danske Bank point out that today the euro area March flash PMIs are released, where they are expecting some stabilisation in the manufactu

    Analysts at Danske Bank point out that today the euro area March flash PMIs are released, where they are expecting some stabilisation in the manufacturing index with an expected print of 49.1.Key Quotes“We see services PMI continuing to rebound to 53.1 due to solid domestic demand. Today also brings German PMI; improving activity in Germany's industry will be an important ingredient for the euro area growth rebound we still expect to take shape in Q2.” “After the EU27's decision to grant a very short unconditional extension of Brexit, we will follow closely the response from leading UK politicians today and over the weekend ahead of next week's decisions in the House of Commons.” “In the US, we get Markit PMIs (preliminary) for March, which will be particularly interesting on the back of this week's Fed meeting, where the central bank signalled concern about the momentum in the US economy. We still think Markit manufacturing PMI will stabilise, so we expect the manufacturing index to come in at 54, up from 53.”

    Despite the risk-off action in the Asian equity markets, the higher-yielding currencies – the Kiwi and the pound emerged the top performers in the Asi

    Despite the risk-off action in the Asian equity markets, the higher-yielding currencies – the Kiwi and the pound emerged the top performers in the Asian session this Friday. The Cable managed to keep its recovery mode intact after the European Union (EU) agreed to give May two weeks’ Brexit extension. The Kiwi rallied likely on repositioning ahead of the RBNZ monetary policy decision next week.  Meanwhile, the Aussie stalled its recovery and fell back in the red near 0.7100 levels amid fresh worries over China anti-dumping duties and the US sanctions on North Korea. The safe-haven Yen benefited from risk-aversion, having limited the USD/JPY post-FOMC recovery near 110.90 region. On the commodities front, both crude benchmarks traded modestly flat, with bias leaning towards the downside while gold prices on Comex consolidated the previous drop below the 1310 level amid negative Treasury yields and US dollar.Main Topics in AsiaOn BrexitBrexit summit EU leaders could agree two-tier approach to Brexit delay – RTRS citing diplomatic sources EU’s Tusk: unanimously agrees on it’s response to UK’s requests EU’s Tusk: if UK has not decided by April 12th, long extension will become impossible EU’s Juncker: long extension would be until the very end UK PM May welcomes council approval of assurances on backstopOther HeadlinesUS imposes first new North Korea sanctions since failed Hanoi summit - Reuters North Korea demands the US to remove weapons from Guam and Hawaii – Dong-A Ilbo Gold Technical Analysis: Demand ahead of rising channel support leaves bias neutral/bullish China to impose temporary antidumping measures on some products WTI Technical Analysis: Rising wedge potential scenarios Asian stocks remain subdued amid Brexit, trade worriesKey Focus AheadToday’s EUR macro calendar remains a busy one, with a raft of Euro area flash manufacturing and services PMI releases dropping in from 0815 GMT onwards. Among them, the French, German and the entire bloc’s reports will be closely eyed for a fresh take on the Eurozone’s economic health. Also, of note remains the Eurozone current account data that will be reported at 0900 GMT. The speeches by the ECB Governing Council members De Guindos and Mersch will also grab attention at 0815 GMT and 1015 GMT respectively. At 1200 GMT, the GBP traders will await the BOE quarterly economic bulletin while the Brexit-related development will continue to drive the sentiment around the pound. The NA session also has plenty of event risks to offer, including the Canadian retail sales and CPI figures slated for release at 1230 GMT, followed by Markit flash manufacturing and services PMI readings due at 1345 GMT. At 1400 GMT, the US existing homes sales data will be published alongside the wholesale inventories report. Next of relevance remains the Baker Hughes US oil rigs count data that will drop in at 1700 GMT, an hour ahead of the US monthly budget statement release. EUR/USD looks to regain 1.1400 ahead of Eurozone PMIs The EUR lacks the recovery momentum, as the bulls turn cautious heading into the flash manufacturing and services PMI releases from across the Euro area economies due later on from 0815 GMT onwards.  GBP/USD: Recovery underway towards 1.3190/1.3260, Brexit developments in spotlight The GBP/USD pair has been on a recovery mode since Thursday-end as EU leaders finally agreed over the Brexit deadline extension with the two-factor system giving unconditional stretch till April 12. Though, uncertainty over the Brexit still remains on cards …  EMU Purchasing Managers' Indexes: Trend intact The manufacturing PMI is projected to rise to 49.5in March from 49.3. The service sector PMI is predicted to drop to 52.7 from 52.8 in February. The composite index will gain 52.0 from 51.9. The EMU economy has been slowing for more than a year.  Dollar U-Turns, GBP Crashes Will the Reversal Last?  We're looking at the strong possibility of an emergency EU summit next week that will prolong the uncertainty and take GBP/USD well below 1.30. Canada: Headline CPI to rise 0.4% m/m in February - Barclays The Barclays Research Team offers a sneak peek at what to expect from Friday’s Canadian inflation report due on the cards at 1230 GMT.  

    Sean Callow, senior currency strategist at Westpac, notes that during the week, US Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell surprised by delivering a drama

    Sean Callow, senior currency strategist at Westpac, notes that during the week, US Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell surprised by delivering a dramatic shift on monetary policy guidance, helping US stocks to fresh 5 month highs.Key Quotes“After raising rates four times in 2018, global markets had expected to see a fairly sharp twist in guidance at the FOMC meeting this week.” “But the FOMC still managed to deliver a dovish surprise. In the Dec 2018 projections, 11 of 17 members projected either 2 or 3 rate hikes over 2019, with a median of 2 hikes. The median is now for no hikes at all in 2019 and just 1 by end-2021. That’s down from 3 in December.” “Global markets were clearly surprised by the outcome, with officials cutting their forecast for US growth, abandoning projections for rate rises this year and a surprisingly abrupt end to the process of offloading their bond holdings by September this year.” “US 10 year Treasury bond yields traded below 2.5% for the first time since January 2018, the S&P 500 hit highs since October 2018 and the US dollar slipped from 20 month highs.”  

    Analysts at TD Securities point out that in the Eurozone, flash PMIs for March are released and are going to be the key economic release for today’s s

    Analysts at TD Securities point out that in the Eurozone, flash PMIs for March are released and are going to be the key economic release for today’s session.Key Quotes“We are in line with the market expecting a relatively flat reading of 48.0 for the German Manufacturing PMI (mkt: 48.0), while the French Services PMI rises to 50.5 (mkt: 50.6). The turn in German data should come soon, but March's data flow will be mixed at best.”

    WTI trades near $60.00 during early Friday. The energy benchmark failed to sustain its rise past-$60.00 and has been trading with the low around $59.3

    Supply-cuts, oil inventories counter pessimism at the global trade system.Baker Hughes data will be next to watch.WTI trades near $60.00 during early Friday. The energy benchmark failed to sustain its rise past-$60.00 and has been trading with the low around $59.30 as doubts over economic growth amid trade tensions grab investor attention. Looking forward, the US Baker Hughes oil rig count could offer fresh directions to the price moves. Depleting inventory levels join supply cuts from the OPEC+ alliance in order to help the oil prices portray recent upward trajectory. Whereas the US sanctions over Venezuela and Iran act as an additional force to the upside. However, concerns for a trade deal between the US and China, coupled with weakness in manufacturing global PMIs, challenge the WTI strength. The US policymakers have off-late been tough over China and the BBC report signal the US President Donald Trump pushing White House lawmakers to demand double or triple imports from China in order to have a successful trade deal. China, on the other hand, has confirmed Beijing visit of the US leaders but is still unclear when China’s President Xi Jinping will confront Mr. Trump for the final deal. Furthermore, the dragon nation recently levied temporary anti-dumping duties on the certain goods of the EU, Japan, Indonesia and South Korea. The news report increased pessimism surrounding macro trade system that has already damaged the global economy and likely crude demand as well. The weekly release of Baker Hughes oil rig count is a closely watched energy indicator as it conveys the active number of rigs from the US, indicating supply counts in-turn. During the week ended on March 15, the US oil rigs stood at 833.WTI Technical AnalysisWhile $60.30 acts as immediate resistance, a successful break of $61.00 becomes necessary for WTI to aim for 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the October – December 2018 sell-off around $ 63.60/70. On the downside, $59.00, $58.20 and $57.90 can entertain short-term sellers before pleasing them with a 50-day simple moving average (SMA) around $55.30.

    The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is alternating gains with losses at the end of the week around the 96.30 region. US Dollar Inde

    The index exchanges gains with losses around 96.30.Yields of the US 10-year note met support near 2.50%.Advanced manufacturing/services PMIs, New Home Sales on the docket.The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is alternating gains with losses at the end of the week around the 96.30 region.US Dollar Index looks to data, tradeAfter bottoming out in the 95.80/75 region following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, the index managed to regain some composure and retake the key barrier at 96.00 the figure and beyond. In the meantime, markets’ appetite for riskier assets eased somewhat in past hours in response to increased uncertainty surrounding Brexit and after President Trump hinted at the likelihood that US-China trade dispute could linger for longer. In the data space today, preliminary manufacturing/services PMIs gauges by Markit are due later in the day along with New Home Sales and the speech by Atlanta Fed R.Bostic (non voter, dovish).What to look for around USDThe greenback left behind recent Fed-induced lows although it is expected to remain in centre stage while investors keep adjusting their views to the renewed dovish stance from the Fed. In light of the heightened patient stance from the Fed, traders will now scrutinize every piece of incoming data, particularly regarding the inflation performance. Fresh jitters from the US-China trade front could, however, put a floor to the buck’s decline in the near/medium term.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAt the moment, the pair is retreating 0.04% at 96.31 and a break below 95.74 (low Mar.20) would open the door for 95.16 (low Jan.31) and then 95.03 (2019 low Jan.10). On the upside, the next hurdle emerges at 96.58 (21-day SMA) seconded by 97.37 (high Feb.15) and finally 97.71 (2019 high Mar.7).

    Rabobank analysts point out that as per expectations, the Bank of England MPC kept rates unchanged at 0.75% and the vote was unanimous. Key Quotes “

    Rabobank analysts point out that as per expectations, the Bank of England MPC kept rates unchanged at 0.75% and the vote was unanimous.Key Quotes“The forward guidance was left untouched as well. The MPC still judges that a tightening of monetary policy at a gradual pace and to a limited extent would be appropriate, if the economy develops in line with the projections as set out in February.” “These projections are based on a smooth transition towards a new trading relationship with the European Union. Given the huge uncertainties surrounding both the nature and the timing of Brexit, these need to be updated once clarity emerges.” “Significant parts of the minutes were devoted to Brexit and its effects on business investment.” “The implied probability of a rate hike before the end of the year has dropped even further, but this is primarily related to yesterday’s FOMC decision.” “The market is rightly questioning whether the BoE dares to go against the Fed. We expect the MPC to sit tight for a while and forecast no rate hikes for the remainder of this year.”

    GBP/JPY 4-Hour chart   Additional important levels Overview Today last price 145.49 Today Daily Change 2

    GBP/JPY is trading near 145.50 before the UK markets open on Friday.The quote recently took a U-turn from 5-week long ascending trend-line and may rise to 145.90 ahead of aiming the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of mid-January to March upside, at 146.15.Should the pair manage to clear 146.15, 147.00 and an immediate downward sloping trend-line at 147.70 could lure buyers.Also, pair’s sustained rise past-147.70 can help it aim for 148.90, 149.00 and 61.8% Fibonacci expansion (FE) level near 150.00.Alternatively, pair’s break of adjacent support and a consecutive slide beneath 144.70 becomes pre-requisite for sellers to slip in while looking for 143.70.In a case where prices keep declining under 143.70, 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 143.00, followed by 142.45 and 141.70, can please bears.GBP/JPY 4-Hour chart 

    Dominick Stephens, chief economist at Westpac, suggests that the RBNZ is likely to repeat the key messages from February, including “OCR on hold throu

    Dominick Stephens, chief economist at Westpac, suggests that the RBNZ is likely to repeat the key messages from February, including “OCR on hold through 2019 and 2020” and “the next move could be up or down.”Key Quotes“The details of the statement will also be similar to February, emphasising global risks and a positive domestic outlook.” “Recent developments have been in line with RBNZ expectations, so there is no reason for the RBNZ to change stance.” “The impending move to a Monetary Policy Committee is another reason for the RBNZ to avoid rocking the boat right now.” “Markets would be surprised by an unchanged statement from the RBNZ. Swap rates and the exchange rate would rise a bit.”

    ANZ analysts are having doubts that the Australian employers can continue to hire at the recent strong pace, due to the softer economic signals of the

    ANZ analysts are having doubts that the Australian employers can continue to hire at the recent strong pace, due to the softer economic signals of the last past two months.Key Quotes“Australia’s unemployment rate dipped in February to 4.9%, its lowest since 2011. That and another drop in the labour underutilisation rate are providing most households with some financial security. But strong jobs growth hasn’t translated to higher wages growth, and consumer sentiment has fallen this year. Lowered borrowing capacity, high levels of debt and falling housing prices are having a dampening impact.” “We doubt that Australian employers can continue to hire at the recent strong pace, given the softer economic signals of the last past two months. That doesn’t mean there won’t be more jobs growth and a lower unemployment rate, but annual employment growth of 2-3% seems unsustainable.” “The RBA’s March Board meeting minutes noted the inconsistency of improvement in the labour market and the apparent slowing of output growth in the second half of 2018. It will want to be sure which indicator is telling the full story before acting. That is why we continue to think rates will remain on hold, unless the labour market shows sudden weakness.”

    Asian stocks seesawed on Friday responding to Thursday’s upbeat data from the US, latest optimism surrounding Brexit and doubts over the US-China trad

    Asian stocks seesawed on Friday responding to Thursday’s upbeat data from the US, latest optimism surrounding Brexit and doubts over the US-China trade deal. Buyers followed Wall street gains lead by technology leaders like Apple but sellers doubted the trade peace between the world’s two largest economies. Reuters reported that the MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.3% during early Friday with Japan’s Nikkie losing 0.2% as Tokyo re-opened after a day’s holiday. S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit five-month high whereas India’s BSE Sensex is up 0.5% with Shanghai Composite index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng losing nearly 0.8% and 0.5% respectively. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing survey for March and weekly initial jobless claims were the headline figures that pleased bulls recently while a report that the EU is ready for unconditional Brexit deadline extension till April 12 and then to May 22 boosted sentiment further. On the other hand, China’s announcement of temporary anti-dumping duties on certain products of the EU, Indonesia, Japan and South Korea damaged the optimism. Increasing the doubts were Japan’s lesser than expected Flash manufacturing PMI and the CNBC’s report that the US President wants China to double or triple goods imports. Moving forward, PMI numbers from the EU and the US would join Canadian retail sales and CPI in order to offer active trading day.

    Following the sharp overnight rebound from near 1.1340 troughs, the EUR/USD pair entered a phase of consolidation in the Asian trades around the 1.137

    Bulls-bears tug of war amid risk-aversion, weaker US dollar. Focus on EMU Purchasing Managers' Indexes: Trend intactNext of relevance remains trade developments, US Markit PMIs and existing home sales data.Following the sharp overnight rebound from near 1.1340 troughs, the EUR/USD pair entered a phase of consolidation in the Asian trades around the 1.1370 region, as the bears guard the 1.1385 topside barrier as we progress towards the European opening bells. The pair appears to lack direction at the press time, although the downside remains cushioned near 1.1360 levels amid subdued trading activity seen around the US dollar, as the USD bears fight for control, despite risk-off trade in the Asian equities. A fresh round of risk-aversion hit Asia on the reports that China imposed temporary antidumping measures on some products from the European Union (EU), Japan, South Korea and Indonesia. Meanwhile, the EUR lack the recovery momentum, as the bulls turn cautious heading into the flash manufacturing and services PMI releases from across the Euro area economies due later on from 0815 GMT onwards. The weakening Eurozone economy continues to remain the main concern for the EUR markets amid ongoing Brexit uncertainty. “For the EU the data is critical, as concerns about slowing economic growth have limited advances for several months already.  The manufacturing index is seen bouncing a bit, to 49.5, still in contraction territory, while the services index is forecasted to result at 52.7, slightly below the previous 52.8. For the US, forecasts are a bit more encouraging. The US will also release February Existing Home Sales seen u 2.2% MoM,” FXStreet’s Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik notes.EUR/USD Technical Levels   

    According to the Westpac-McDermott Miller Regional Economic Confidence survey, New Zealand’s regional economic confidence deteriorated in the March 20

    According to the Westpac-McDermott Miller Regional Economic Confidence survey, New Zealand’s regional economic confidence deteriorated in the March 2019 quarter, with eight of eleven regions recording a fall, contrasting to the previous quarter where all regions had posted gains.Key Quotes“The biggest falls in confidence were in Auckland, Nelson/Marlborough/West Coast, and Canterbury.” “Auckland is by far the most pessimistic region in the country.” “The only regions to report improved household confidence were fast growing Waikato and the Bay of Plenty, which is the most confident region in the country.” “Recent outperformers on the east coast of the North Island and the southern part of the South Island all experienced sharp drops in confidence as their overheating economies showed signs of cooling.”

    Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ, suggests that they are expecting the RBNZ will likely leave the OCR unchanged at 1.75% at its Official Cash Ra

    Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ, suggests that they are expecting the RBNZ will likely leave the OCR unchanged at 1.75% at its Official Cash Rate Review next Wednesday at 2pm. Key Quotes“The RBNZ will reaffirm the next move “could be up or down”. We’re content to be picking “down”.” “Since the February MPS, the main data has been that Q4 GDP surprised the RBNZ on the downside again, at 0.6% q/q versus RBNZ expectations of 0.8%. However, the details were decent so the ‘news’ element is pretty limited.” “The local economy has slowed, and downside global growth risks are accumulating; the RBNZ will continue to acknowledge as much – as they did in February. However, there is a lot more data to flow under the bridge. Our call for an OCR cut in November is based on a steady accumulation of small disappointments, rather than a dramatic turn for the worse.” “To the extent that the RBNZ cares more about capacity stretch than GDP growth per se, the next QSBO supply-side read (2 April) and labour market data (1 May) will be particularly important for setting direction. In the meantime, the market is currently pricing around 50% odds of a 25bp cut by November, and 80% by March next year. We doubt the RBNZ will have much beef with that.”  

    The British Pound (GBP) is taking the bids near 1.3140 versus the US Dollar (USD) ahead of London open on Friday. The GBP/USD pair has been on a recov

    Brexit deadline extension has its own challenges for the UK PM Theresa May.The quote needs to cross 1.3190 and 1.3260 resistances in order to justify its bounce off 1.3000 round-figure.The British Pound (GBP) is taking the bids near 1.3140 versus the US Dollar (USD) ahead of London open on Friday. The GBP/USD pair has been on a recovery mode since Thursday-end as EU leaders finally agreed over the Brexit deadline extension with the two-factor system giving unconditional stretch till April 12. Though, uncertainty over the Brexit still remains on cards as the UK PM Theresa May has to jostle with the British parliament soon. Also directing the immediate trade sentiment will be second-tier data from the US. The EU lawmakers agreed to shift the Brexit deadline off from March 29 during late-Thursday. The news report triggered the GBP/USD pair’s U-turn from 1.3000 round-figure and has been pleasing buyers off-late as the USD is likely witnessing profit-booking after yesterday’s overall advances. In spite of getting unconditional deadline extension till April 12, PM May has to convince lawmakers at home to support her plan in the parliament’s voting sometimes next week in order to grab the May 22 data for the Britain to leave the EU. Having been defeated twice at home, it would become tough for PM May to persuade British politicians for her third Brexit plan considering the fact that it won’t be too different from the previous one. Other than Brexit uncertainty, US data could also play their role in directing near-term trade sentiment. Among them, the current month Markit composite purchasing manager index (PMI) and February month existing home sales could gain market attention. The US Markit PMI composite could soften to 55.2 from 55.5 but likely increase in existing home sales to 5.10M over 4.94M earlier might favor the greenback.GBP/USD Technical AnalysisWhile a descending trend-line joining highs since March 19 offers immediate resistance around 1.3190, a week-long resistance-line at 1.3260 could limit the pair’s further advances. On the downside, eleven-week old ascending trend-line and 50-day simple moving average (SMA) around 1.3060/65, near to recent low at 1.3000 round-figure, can please sellers ahead of questioning their strength by 200-day SMA figure of 1.2980.

    In the view of the Barclays analysts, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is likely to disappoint the hawks by hinting towards a looser monetary po

    In the view of the Barclays analysts, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is likely to disappoint the hawks by hinting towards a looser monetary policy next week.Key Quotes:“We think the argument for looser policy is building and the RBNZ may struggle to maintain its neutral policy tone at its 27 March meeting, encouraging markets to price further easing and sell NZD before then.  The output gap likely became negative in H2 18 and headline (1.9% y/y) and core inflation (1.7%) sit below the 2% midpoint of the RBNZ's 1-3% inflation target band.  We are skeptical of the RBNZ's view that New Zealand activity will pick up sufficiently (i.e., to 3% y/y) such that an increasingly positive output gap offsets concern that falling headline inflation (likely to bottom at 1.2% y/y in Q3) will lower already-subdued inflation expectations (one-year ahead expectations were 1.8% y/y in Q1).”

    Reuters reports that late on Thursday, the US imposed sanctions on two Chinese shipping companies it says helped North Korea evade sanctions over its

    Reuters reports that late on Thursday, the US imposed sanctions on two Chinese shipping companies it says helped North Korea evade sanctions over its nuclear weapons program. These are the first sanctions imposed by the US following the failed meeting between the US President Trump and the North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un held last month in Hanoi. The US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a statement: “The United States and our like-minded partners remain committed to achieving the final, fully verified denuclearization of North Korea and believe that the full implementation of North Korea-related U.N. Security Council resolutions is crucial to a successful outcome”. “Treasury will continue to enforce our sanctions, and we are making it explicitly clear that shipping companies employing deceptive tactics to mask illicit trade with North Korea expose themselves to great risk,” he added.

    USD/JPY failed to extend yesterday’s pullback beyond 111.00 as the quote dropped to the lows near 110.60 around early Asian session on Friday. Return

    Brexit news couldn’t please bulls for long as North Korea, China triggered risk off.The US data and the UK PM’s ability to progress over Brexit remains in highlight.USD/JPY failed to extend yesterday’s pullback beyond 111.00 as the quote dropped to the lows near 110.60 around early Asian session on Friday. Return of Japanese traders after a holiday met renewed risk aversion wave. Investors may now focus on risk events like Brexit and political pessimism surrounding the US, North Korea and China, coupled with the US data, in order to determine near-term trade moves. Early Friday, news that the EU agreed to postpone the Brexit deadline off from 29 March and triggered some risk-on moves; though, news that North Korea has asked the US to remove its weapons from Hawaii and Guam led the balance.  Following that, news that China announced anti-dumping duties over certain products from the EU, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia further leveled out the risk-off and pleased USD/JPY sellers. It should also be noted that JPY traders gave little importance to Japan’s national core consumer price index (CPI) measures published earlier as Finance Minister Taro Aso said the economy is on a moderate recovery mode. Other than EU and US leaders’ response to the North Korean and Chin’s recent actions, Brexit worries could continue directing immediate risk sentiment as the UK PM Theresa May is still to get British parliament approval for her third proposal in order to avail deadline extension till May 22. On the data side, the US Markit PMIs and existing home sales figures should be observed closely for predicting immediate moves. While expected weakness in the composite PMI may favor USD/JPY sellers, likely improvement in housing market stat could challenge the present mood.USD/JPY Technical Analysis50-day simple moving average (SMA) and an upward sloping trendline stretched since January 04 highlights the importance of 110.40/30 area for USD/JPY traders. A break of which can trigger the pair’s drop to 110.00 and 109.80. Alternatively, 100-day SMA level of 111.30 and 200-day SMA level near 111.50 can confine the pair’s immediate upside, clearing which 112.00 can lure bulls.

    NZD/USD daily chart   Additional important levels Overview Today last price 0.6886 Today Daily Change 9

    NZD/USD is on bids around 0.6890 during early Friday.The quote took a U-turn from nine-month-old descending trend-line on Thursday but is still above previous resistance turned support figure of 0.6860, making it capable of aiming a break over 0.6890 for one more time.In doing so, 0.6940 and 0.6970 can please buyers ahead of challenging them with 0.7000 round-figure.If at all Kiwi optimists surpass 0.7000 mark, 0.7060 can be their next target.Meanwhile, a downside break of 0.6860 might not hesitate visiting 0.6825 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of June – October decline, at 0.6815, but 100-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 0.6800 could limit further south-run.During the pair’s extended downturn past-0.6800, 0.6790 and 0.6770 can entertain sellers ahead of highlighting the 0.6740-35 support confluence that comprises 200-day SMA, five-month-old ascending trend-line and 50% Fibonacci retracement.Assuming the pair’s slid under 0.6735, bears can recall 0.6705 and 0.6650 on the chart.NZD/USD daily chart 

    The Barclays Research Team offers a sneak peek at what to expect from Friday’s Canadian inflation report due on the cards at 1230 GMT. Key Quotes: “

    The Barclays Research Team offers a sneak peek at what to expect from Friday’s Canadian inflation report due on the cards at 1230 GMT.Key Quotes:“We forecast headline CPI to have increased 0.4% m/m in February (1.3% y/y), driven by mildly higher gasoline prices and Q1 seasonality.  We expect core inflation to shift mildly lower in the coming months before slowly recovering toward 2% by year-end.  The BoC remains in wait-and-see mode and will need to see an improvement in inflationary pressures before resuming tightening.” 

    AUD/USD is on a steady decline so far this Asian session on Friday, now struggling around the 0.71 handle, having hit fresh session lows at 0.7095 som

    Risk-off amid fresh trade worries, downbeat Aussie data weigh negatively Focus on US economic release, risk sentiment for the next moves.AUD/USD is on a steady decline so far this Asian session on Friday, now struggling around the 0.71 handle, having hit fresh session lows at 0.7095 some minutes ago. The overnight bounce in the Aussie faded at 0.7120 and from the Aussie witnessed a fresh leg lower, despite the renewed US dollar selling across the board, as the Australian flash manufacturing PMI dropped to 52.0 vs. 52.9 previous. Moreover, a renewed risk-aversion wave gripped the Asian markets amid latest US-North Korea issue while the report that China is said to impose temporary antidumping measures on some products from the European Union (EU), Japan, South Korea and Indonesia further dented the risk sentiment, with the higher-yielding Treasury yields continuing to remain in the red following the Fed’s outright dovishness. Attention now turns towards the US macro news due later on Friday, including Markit manufacturing and services PMI reports, existing home sales and wholesale inventories, for fresh trading impetus. In the meantime, the USD dynamics and risk trends will continue to have a major bearing on the spot, as markets keep an eye on fresh trade-related developments.AUD/USD Technical Levels 

    USD/CHF daily chart The USD/CHF pair trades near 0.9930 at the early Asian session on Friday. The quote recently bounced off the 38.2% Fibonacci r

    USD/CHF daily chartThe USD/CHF pair trades near 0.9930 at the early Asian session on Friday.The quote recently bounced off the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its September – November 2018 upside but is struggling around 200-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 0.9920.Should the pair successfully cross 0.9920, 0.9960 can act as immediate resistance ahead of highlighting 0.9990 confluence comprising 50-day SMA and 23.6% Fibonacci.During the pair’s additional rise above 0.9990, 1.000 round-figure and support-turned-resistance line around 1.0020 can challenge buyers targeting 1.0055.On the downside break of 0.9900 Fibonacci figure, 0.9855, 0.9800 and 0.9780 could please sellers before challenging them with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.9765.Additionally, 0.9700 and 0.9640 might become Bears’ favorites after 0.9765. USD/CHF 4-Hour chartShort-term descending trend-line can offer intermediate resistance around 0.9980 between 0.9960 and 0.9990.0.9820 may act as a buffer between 0.9855 and 0.9800. USD/CHF hourly chartRecent highs around 0.9945 could provide the closest resistance to the pair.Also, 61.8% Fibonacci expansion of moves from March 20, at 0.9875, might become adjacent support past-0.9900.

     

    WTI's technical outlook remains bullish while the price keeps above the double-top highs and above the 57.93 horizontal prior resistance line going back to mid-Nov 2018.However, the daily stochastics leans bearish for a pullback within the rising wedges structure to target 59 the figure.In recent sessions, the price has moved beyond 58.20 and the trendline support prior resistance of 59. If 59 holds, Bulls will look to the 61.8% Fibo of the Oct 2018 sell-off to late Dec lows around the 63.60/70 area again, reviving prospects for the 70 handle on a break above 64.20.A drop to 57.92 and below the wedge will open the case for a clean breakout to target 54.50 initially and 50.40/50 area as being the 23.6% Fibo support structure. 

    The latest headlines crossed the wires, via Reuters, citing that China is likely to impose temporary antidumping measures on some products from the Eu

    The latest headlines crossed the wires, via Reuters, citing that China is likely to impose temporary antidumping measures on some products from the European Union (EU), Japan, South Korea and Indonesia from March 23rd. Nothing further is out on the same.

    USD/CAD trades near 1.3370 during early Friday. The pair struggles to hold recent uptick to 1.3400 as a pullback of the US Dollar (USD) confronts crud

    Pullback in crude prices joins the USD profit-booking.Canadian CPI/Retail Sales and the US PMI/Housing should be observed next.USD/CAD trades near 1.3370 during early Friday. The pair struggles to hold recent uptick to 1.3400 as a pullback of the US Dollar (USD) confronts crude recovery at the day’s start. Traders may now look for retail sales and consumer price index (CPI) numbers from Canada in addition to the US Markit PMIs and existing home sales for fresh impulse. Loonie seems on a recovery mode as the sun shines on Asia without major news report from either the US or from Canada. The pullback could be profit-booking moves after yesterday’s up-moves while the latest advances of crude prices favor the uptick. The USD/CAD pair surged on Thursday as the greenback gained across the board on upbeat US data after declining heavily during post-FOMC sessions. With the USD’s strength negatively correlated to the crude strength, Canada’s main export, Loonie traders ignored upbeat wholesale sales growth at home. Looking forward, Canadian consumer-centric details like January month retail sales and CPI figures for February could join the US Markit purchasing manager index (PMI) and existing home sales to provide further direction to the pair. Headline Canadian retail sales (MoM) growth may print +0.4% mark against -0.1% prior with CPI (YoY) likely being unchanged at 1.4% but likely weakness in the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) CPI Core (YoY) to 1.2% from 1.5% may challenge the optimism. On the other hand, a preliminary reading of the US Markit manufacturing PMI may improve to 53.6 from 53.0 with no change expected in services PMI figure of 56.0 whereas Markit PMI composite could soften to 55.2 from 55.5 during the present month. Also, the February month existing home sales could rise to 5.10M versus 4.94M on a monthly basis.USD/CAD Technical AnalysisHaving bounced off the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), at 1.3300 now, the USD/CAD pair can confront a downward sloping resistance-line stretched since January near 1.3430, a break of which can propel the up-moves to 1.3470 and 1.3500. Alternatively, a downside break beneath 1.3300 can drag the quote to 50-day SMA level of 1.3270 and then to the 200-day SMA level of 1.3185.

    PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.6944 vs. yesterday at 6.6850. PBOC Skips Reverse Repo March 22nd.

    PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.6944 vs. yesterday at 6.6850. PBOC Skips Reverse Repo March 22nd.

    USD/JPY dropped below 111.50 after the FOMC and fund resistance at 110.80 overnight as the yen weakened in the US session. As for US fixed income, yie

    USD/JPY is currently trading at 110.78 and between a range of 110.74 and 110.90.The pair is resting up for the week following the FOMC and ahead of the last U.S. data for the week. USD/JPY dropped below 111.50 after the FOMC and fund resistance at 110.80 overnight as the yen weakened in the US session. As for US fixed income, yields dropped again overnight following the Fed’s strikingly dovish announcement. U.S. 10yr yields were touching a session low of 2.4977% (-2.8bp), which was the first time it has been below 2.50% since early 2018. However, stronger than expected US data and increased risk appetite on Wall Street that helped benchmarks to climb weighed on the yen. As for data, "the March Philly Fed manufacturing survey posted a decent lift to 13.7 from -4.1, putting solidly back into expansionary territory, though the jump in headline index masked more cautious detail; employment, CAPEX and pricing intentions all eased while new orders showed a meagre gain to 1.9 from -2.4. Initial jobless claims continue to hover at very lean levels, +221k," analysts at Westpac explained.  Data tomorrow will offer Markit PMIs and Existing Homes Sales.USD/JPY levelsValeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained that the pair recovered up to 110.95 in the US session, and the 4 hours chart shows that it was unable to recover ground above its 200 SMA, overall retaining its bearish stance, as, in the same chart, technical indicators lost upward momentum within negative levels after correcting extreme oversold conditions: "The pair could extend its advance once above 111.00, particularly if Asian equities follow the lead of the  US ones. Still, and in the wider perspective, the risk remains skewed to the downside, only changing to bullish if the price surpasses 112.13, the yearly high."

    The Japanese Yen (JPY) is taking the bids near 78.70 versus the Australian Dollar (AUD) as Tokyo opens after a day’s break on Friday. The pair recentl

    Japanese traders return from a day’s break to markets with CPI on Friday.Risk sentiments could gain major attention on lack of data.The Japanese Yen (JPY) is taking the bids near 78.70 versus the Australian Dollar (AUD) as Tokyo opens after a day’s break on Friday. The pair recently benefited from mixed consumer price index (CPI) numbers from Japan and comments from the Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso. Although there are no major economic data remain left for publishing from either Australia or Japan, risk sentiment could be observed for fresh impulse. The February month National CPI (YoY) from Japan lagged behind 0.3% market consensus to reprint 0.2% prior but the National CPI ex-fresh food (YoY) crossed 0.6% forecast with +0.7% increase against +0.8% earlier. Comments from Finance Minister Taro Aso also fuelled liquidity into the AUD/JPY pair past-CPI release. Mr. Aso was quoted saying that Japan's economy is in a moderate recovery and the sales tax hike will go ahead as planned for October. The quote declined on Thursday as the absence of Japanese traders and overall strength of the US Dollar (USD) lured buyers but safe-haven nature of the JPY dragged the AUD/JPY down. Looking forward, risk sentiment surrounding the US-China trade deal, Brexit and recently erupted US-North Korea rift should be observed in order to determine immediate moves of the pair. While news are on rounds that the US President Donald Trump is pushing his team to convince China over a trade deal soon, it was also discussed that North Korea has demanded the US to remove its strategic weapons off Guam and Hawaii. Additionally, the EU lawmakers offered an unconditional Brexit deadline extension till April 12 that can be stretched to May 22 for which Theresa May will reach Britain to gain support for her plan in parliament.AUD/JPY Technical Analysis50-day simple moving average (SMA) figure of 78.70 acts as immediate support, a break of which can recall 78.40 and 78.00 but an upward sloping trend-line since January 07 can limit further declines around 77.70. On the upside, 79.40 can please short-term buyers ahead of challenging them with 100-day SMA figure of 79.70, a break of which may print 80.00 and then push the bulls toward 200-day SMA level of 80.45.

    Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI remains at 48.9 in March

     

    Stochastics and price action leaves the immedaite outlook neutral/bullish.Bears are looking for a test of the 1302 support which will open 1295, 1290 while 1280 is a keen target. 1275 remains the line in the sand to the downside but a clearance below the cloud at 1295 offers a potential breakout trade below the rising channel.1250, comes as a key confluence area made up of Fibos and prior support and resistance.On the next leg up, however, bulls can take on 1315/20 to open the runway towards 1332 which guards the 2019 highs as being the 19th Feb high of 1345.19.Pivot support levels: 1303 1291 1285.Pivot resistance levels: 1322 1328 1340. 

    While global traders remain busy observing Brexit headlines, a report from Korean media mentions that North Korea has demanded the US to remove strate

    While global traders remain busy observing Brexit headlines, a report from Korean media mentions that North Korea has demanded the US to remove strategic weapons from Guam and Hawaii. The news report quotes the former Korea mission center chief of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) saying that North Korea has refused to define its denuclearization, and it has actually demanded the elimination of the US nuclear umbrella and the dismantling of the Indian Pacific Command. It should be noted that the Kim-Jong Un led nation previously agreed for complete denuclearization with the US but has recently shown signs of trouble going forward with the plan.

    Argentina Unemployment Rate (QoQ) increased to 9.1% in 4Q from previous 9%

    Japan Foreign Bond Investment declined to ¥-571.6B in March 15 from previous ¥245.7B

    Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks down to ¥-1588.9B in March 15 from previous ¥-1158.6B

    AUD/USD daily chart The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.7110 around early Asian sessions on Friday. The quote took a U-turn from 50-day and 100-day sim

    AUD/USD daily chartThe AUD/USD pair trades near 0.7110 around early Asian sessions on Friday.The quote took a U-turn from 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMA) on Thursday.While multiple lows from mid-February to March start offers immediate support to the pair at 0.7070, 50% Fibonacci retracement of its December – January drop, at 0.7060, could challenge sellers then after.Given the additional declines under 0.7060, 0.7030, 0.7000 and a descending trend-line joining 38.2% Fibonacci at 0.6980 seem crucial for bears.Meanwhile, 50-day SMA level of 0.7130 and 100-day SMA level of 0.7160 can limit the pair’s near-term upside.Should the pair clears 0.7160, 0.7200 may become buyers’ favorite ahead of pushing them towards 200-day SMA level of 0.7220. AUD/USD 4-Hour chartShort-term symmetrical triangle confines the pair moves between 0.7070 and 0.7165 with additional support-line at 0.7060 acting as small follow-on rest.50% Fibonacci retracement of January 31 to March 08 downturn at 0.7150 can provide an intermediate halt between 0.7130 and 0.7150. AUD/USD hourly chartA horizontal line near 0.7120 may restrict the pair’s adjacent rise whereas 0.7095 seems the closest support.

    Japan National CPI ex-Fresh Food (YoY) above expectations (0.6%) in February: Actual (0.7%)

    Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) above forecasts (0.3%) in February: Actual (0.4%)

    Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in February

    PM May says that the UK welcomes the Council approval of assurances on backstop. Further comments: Wrong to take part in EU elections. Decision u

    PM May says that the UK welcomes the Council approval of assurances on backstop.Further comments:Wrong to take part in EU elections.Decision underlines importance of getting deal passed.I will build support for deal from tomorrow.I will make every effort to make sure we can leave with deal.I do not believe we should revoke Article 50.MPs will have a chance next week to look at choices that they face.If deal rejected then need for new plan by April 12th.

    EUR/GBP daily chart   Additional important levels Overview Today last price 0.8669 Today Daily Change 19

    EUR/GBP is a little weak around 0.8665 on early Friday.The quote couldn’t provide a daily closing beyond 50-day simple moving average (SMA) figure of 0.8690 during its rise on Thursday.As a result, a downward sloping trend-line stretched since January 03 at 0.8610 regain market attention as a break of which triggered the pair’s recent rise.Should the pair slips under 0.8610, 0.8560, 0.8520 and 0.8500 might entertain short-term sellers ahead of pleasing them with an early-month low around 0.8470.In a case where prices drop beneath 0.8470, 61.8% Fibonacci expansion (FE) of pair moves since January, at 0.8360, could flash on bears’ radar to target.On the upside, a D1 close beyond 0.8690 could validate the pair’s rise in a direction to 0.8740 and 50% Fibonacci retracement level near 0.8790.However, 200-day SMA level of 0.8845 may confine the pair’s rally beyond 0.8790, if not then chances of 0.8950 and 0.9000 coming back to the chart can’t be denied.EUR/GBP daily chart 

    EU’s Juncker: long extension would be until the very end: There is no more we can give the UK. We hope agreement will be adopted by the house of c

    EU’s Juncker: long extension would be until the very end: There is no more we can give the UK. We hope agreement will be adopted by the house of commons. We are ready for a no deal. Emergency measures are in place.

    EU’s Tusk: if UK has not decided by April 12th, long extension will become impossible:   I’m pleased to confirm may accepted Brexit delay offers.

    EU’s Tusk: if UK has not decided by April 12th, long extension will become impossible:   I’m pleased to confirm may accepted Brexit delay offers. EU approved Strasbourg agreement between Juncker-May. EU 27 leaders approached may’s request for extension in a positive spirit. Until april 12th all options will remain open.  

    The GBP/USD pair trades near 1.3120 at the start of Asian sessions on Friday. The quote recently witnessed pullback from 1.3000 round-figure and is ho

    EU confirms Brexit deadline extension from March 29 making the UK parliament a crucial entity to direct the future dates of departure.The GBP/USD pair bounces off the 1.3060/65 support-line but still has to cross 1.3180 and 1.3230 in order to justify its strength.The GBP/USD pair trades near 1.3120 at the start of Asian sessions on Friday. The quote recently witnessed pullback from 1.3000 round-figure and is holding above 1.3100 off-late as latest reports say the EU proposes two-factor Brexit deadline extension plan. No major data is scheduled for release from the Britain while there are only few statistics to watch from the US, leaving highlights on Brexit. At the end of much drama concerning the Brexit deadline at the EU summit, the regional leaders finally agree to a two-factor approach that offers an unconditional Brexit delay until April 12 and helps the British Pound (GBP) to recover some of the latest losses. As per the draft proposal, the EU is ready to offer a Brexit extension till April 12 by then the PM Theresa May has to acquire parliament support for her deal in order to remain in the region till May 22. If Mrs. May fails to gain House of Commons’ support for her plan, April 12 is the last day for the British economy as the regional member. The GBP declined most among G-10 currencies on Thursday as the EU lawmakers continued to struggle over the final date to give to the UK for leaving the regional boundary as opted before two years. Looses were also mounted as the US initial jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey flashed welcome numbers. It should also be noted that the Bank of England (BOE) left its monetary policy unchanged, as expected, while giving higher importance to Brexit for directing future moves. Traders have fewer details/events to watch over during rest of the day that continues to highlight Brexit headlines for near-term trade direction. However, US Markit PMI and existing home sales could offer intermediate moves. The US Markit preliminary manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) for the current month may rise to 53.6 from 53.00 prior whereas services PMI might not deviate from its 56.0 level. Further, the composite PMI could weaken to 55.2 from 55.5 while existing home sales may increase to 5.10M during February from 4.94M registered in January month.GBP/USD Technical AnalysisNot only eleven-week old ascending trend-line and 50-day simple moving average (SMA) around 1.3060/65 but 1.3000 and 200-day SMA figure of 1.2980 could also limit the GBP/USD pair’s downside. Alternatively, 1.3180, 1.3230 and 1.3280 are likely nearby resistances that the quote should cross in order to aim for 1.3320 and 1.3375/80.

    In other headlines: France official: only path to hard Brexit would be UK refuses offer. - EU aims to ensure no no-deal Brexit next week. Brexit

    EU’s Tusk: unanimously agrees on it’s response to UK’s requests and says that the EU offers a Brexit delay while postponing no-deal risk March 29th. In other headlines: France official: only path to hard Brexit would be UK refuses offer. - EU aims to ensure no no-deal Brexit next week.Brexit summit EU leaders could agree two-tier approach to Brexit delay – RTRS citing diplomatic sources

    EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD is trading in a bear trend below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA).   EUR/USD 4-hour chart EUR/USD is trad

    EUR/USD daily chartEUR/USD is trading in a bear trend below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). 
    EUR/USD 4-hour chartEUR/USD is trading above its main SMAs suggesting bullish momentum in the medium-term.EUR/USD 30-minute chartEUR/USD is trading between the 100 and 200 SMAs suggesting a consolidation phase in the short-term. Resistance is at 1.1390 and 1.1420. Support is at 1.1370, 1.1350 and 1.1330 level.Additional key levels 
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