Forex News Timeline

Thursday, July 29, 2021

European Monetary Union Consumer Confidence meets forecasts (-4.4) in July

European Monetary Union Industrial Confidence registered at 14.6 above expectations (13) in July

Belgium Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) below expectations (1.5%) in 2Q: Actual (1.4%)

European Monetary Union Services Sentiment below forecasts (19.9) in July: Actual (19.3)

European Monetary Union Economic Sentiment Indicator above expectations (118.5) in July: Actual (119)

Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research, noted that EUR/JPY is expected to meet initial resistance at 131.08 ahead of 131.36. Key Quot

Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research, noted that EUR/JPY is expected to meet initial resistance at 131.08 ahead of 131.36. Key Quotes “No change. EUR/JPY is side lined, it continues to hold over the March lows at 128.30/20 and the 200-day ma at 128.62. Currently the Elliott wave count is implying a rebound to 130.70/131.15 ahead of failure. However should this rebound manage to regain the 50% retracement at 131.36 we will start to pay more attention to the upside.” “Below the 200-day ma lies the 55-week ma at 127.54.” “Initial resistance is seen at the 131.08 the 13th July high and the 50% retracement at 131.36. This guards 132.69/73, the mid-June highs.”

United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals below expectations (86.1K) in June: Actual (81.3K)

United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals registered at 81.338K, below expectations (86.1K) in June

United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) climbed from previous £6.9B to £18.2B in June

United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (YoY) declined to 6.9% in June from previous 7.3%

United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (MoM) below expectations (0.8%) in June: Actual (0.5%)

Portugal Consumer Confidence down to -17 in July from previous -14.2

United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals below forecasts (86.1K) in June: Actual (81.3K)

Portugal Business Confidence rose from previous 1.6 to 1.8 in July

United Kingdom Consumer Credit came in at £0.3B below forecasts (£0.6B) in June

In opinion of UOB Group’s FX Strategists, NZD/USD is forecast to keep trading within the 0.6900-0.7010 range in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour vie

In opinion of UOB Group’s FX Strategists, NZD/USD is forecast to keep trading within the 0.6900-0.7010 range in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “While we expected NZD to weaken yesterday, we were of the view that ‘a break of the major support at 0.6920 is unlikely’. However, NZD dropped briefly to 0.6900 before snapping back up. The sharp rebound appears to be running ahead of itself and is unlikely to extend much further. Overall, NZD is more likely to trade between 0.6930 and 0.6975.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We have expected NZD to trade within a 0.6920/0.7030 range since last Friday (23 Jul, spot at 0.6975). While NZD dropped below the bottom of our expected range at 0.6920 during NY hours yesterday (low of 0.6900), the decline was short-lived as NZD rebounded strongly. The price actions suggest that NZD is not ready to embark on a sustained directional move just yet. In other words, NZD could continue to range trade, albeit likely within a lower range of 0.6900/0.7010.”

Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. below forecasts (5.8%) in July: Actual (5.7%)

Germany Unemployment Change below forecasts (-28K) in July: Actual (-91K)

Sweden Unemployment Rate up to 10.3% in June from previous 9.8%

USD/JPY remains under pressure in the European trading hours. The pair hinges near the daily support level of around 109.70. At the time of writing, U

USD/JPY pares all the previous day’s gain on Thursday. More downside for the pair on the cards, if price breaches the Head & Shoulder formation neckline. Momentum Oscillators warn caution for any aggressive directional bets. USD/JPY remains under pressure in the European trading hours. The pair hinges near the daily support level of around 109.70. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading at 109.77, down 0.14% so far. USD/JPY daily chart On the daily chart, the USD/JPY pair has formed Head& Shoulder (H&S)  formation, which is a bearish reversal technical pattern. If USD/JPY breaks the neckline of the mentioned technical pattern, it would result accelerate the selling toward the 109.50 horizontal support level. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator trades just below the trendline with a neutral stance. Any downtick in the MACD would bring the low of July 20 at 109.32 back into action. Next, the USD/JPY bears would effort to capture the 109.00 horizontal support level. Alternatively, If price sustained the neckline of the H&S formation, it could crawl back to the 110.00 horizontal resistance level followed by the 110.40 horizontal resistance level. The USD/JPY pair will make the next move toward July 26 high in the vicinity of the  110.60 area. USD/JPY additional levels  

Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (-0.6%) in July: Actual (-0.7%)

Spain HICP (MoM) meets forecasts (-1.2%) in July

Sweden Consumer Confidence (MoM): 106.5 (July) vs previous 109.4

Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.9%, above forecasts (2.5%) in July

Spain HICP (YoY) in line with expectations (2.9%) in July

Spain Unemployment Survey above forecasts (15.1%) in 2Q: Actual (15.26%)

Turkey Economic Confidence Index increased to 100.1 in July from previous 97.8

Considering advanced readings for natural gas futures markets from CME Group, open interest rose a tad by 375 contracts on Wednesday. On the other han

Considering advanced readings for natural gas futures markets from CME Group, open interest rose a tad by 375 contracts on Wednesday. On the other hand, volume shrank by around 21.7K contracts after two daily pullbacks in a row. Natural gas met support near $3.80 Prices of natural gas extended the drop on Wednesday amidst a small uptick in open interest, leaving the door open to extra losses in the very near term. That said, recent lows around the $3.80 mark per MMBtu should hold the downside for the time being.

GBP/USD is extending its four-day winning streak beyond 1.3900, as the bulls remain unstoppable amid notable US dollar supply and an upbeat market moo

GBP/USD recaptures 100-DMA barrier, where next?Buyers remain unstoppable amid weaker US dollar, risk-on mood. RSI points north above the midline, allowing more advances.GBP/USD is extending its four-day winning streak beyond 1.3900, as the bulls remain unstoppable amid notable US dollar supply and an upbeat market mood. The greenback remains undermined by falling Treasury yields, thanks to the Fed’s dovish stance while a turnaround in the Chinese stocks has helped lift the broader market sentiment. Further, the gains in the cable could be also associated with the renewed Brexit optimism, as the European Union (EU) softens its legal threat over the Northern Ireland (NI) protocol, as urged by the UK Brexit Minister David Frost. Attention now shifts towards the ley US advance GDP for the second quarter for fresh trading impetus. From a near-term technical perspective, the GBP bulls have finally reclaimed ground above the 100-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at 1.3924, although they await a daily closing above the latter to extend the uptrend. On acceptance above the mildly bearish 50-DMA at 1.3951 could be probed by the bullish traders. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pointing north towards the overbought territory while above the midline, suggesting that there is more room to the upside. Further up, the buyers will target the 1.4000 psychological barrier. GBP/USD: Daily chart On the flip side, the bears need to beat the intraday low of 1.3898 to regain control. The next significant support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 1.3843. If the downswing picks up pace, then a test of the horizontal 21-DMA at 1.3807 cannot be ruled out. The last line of defense for the GBP bulls is aligned at the upward-sloping 200-DMA at 1.3731. GBP/USD: Additional levels  

A move to the 200-day SMA in the 0.7230 region in AUD/USD still remains on the cards, suggested Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Researc

A move to the 200-day SMA in the 0.7230 region in AUD/USD still remains on the cards, suggested Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research. Key Quotes “AUD/USD has seen only a tepid correction higher, which has remained contained by the 20-day ma at .7423 and the resistance line at .7423, leaving the market on the defensive. This guards the July and late June highs at .7599/.7616.” “While capped here, we target initially the 200 week ma at .7232. Longer term there is scope for .7054/.6991.”

France Producer Prices (MoM) came in at 1.1%, above forecasts (0.3%) in June

Cable’s upside momentum carries the potential to re-test the mid-1.3900s in the short-term horizon, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes

Cable’s upside momentum carries the potential to re-test the mid-1.3900s in the short-term horizon, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: Our expectation for GBP to move above 1.3915 yesterday did not materialize as it dropped to 1.3845 before snapping back up to 1.3912. The underlying tone still appears to be a tad firm and we continue to see chance for GBP to move above 1.3915. Barring a strong surge in momentum, the next resistance at 1.3955 is likely out of reach. On the downside, a breach of 1.3850 (minor support is at 1.3875) would indicate that the current mild upward pressure has eased.” Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to our update from yesterday (28 Jul, spot at 1.3880). As highlighted, there is room for GBP to advance further but overbought shorter-term conditions suggest that 1.3955 may not come into the picture so soon. The positive outlook is deemed intact as long as GBP does not move below 1.3800 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.3770 yesterday). Looking ahead, a clear break of 1.3955 would shift the focus to 1.4000.”

CME Group’s flash data for crude oil futures markets noted open interest shrank by around 8.3K contracts after five straight daily builds. Volume foll

CME Group’s flash data for crude oil futures markets noted open interest shrank by around 8.3K contracts after five straight daily builds. Volume followed suit and dropped for the second session in a row, now by nearly 81K contracts. WTI faces some consolidation near term Wednesday’s uptick in WTI was fuelled by short covering, as noted by shrinking open interest and volume. Against that, further upside could be losing momentum and the door could open to some consolidation or even a corrective downside in the very near term.

The AUSD/USD pair bounced around 30 pips from the Asian session lows and was last seen hovering near the top end of its daily trading range, just belo

AUD/USD attracted some dip-buying on Thursday and turned positive for the second straight day.The post-FOMC USD selling remained unabated and continued lending some support to the major.Worries about the fast-spreading Delta variant of COVID-19 acted as a headwind and capped gains.The AUSD/USD pair bounced around 30 pips from the Asian session lows and was last seen hovering near the top end of its daily trading range, just below the 0.7400 mark. The pair attracted some dip-buying on Thursday and is now looking to build on the overnight goodish bounce from the 0.7315 region, or one-week lows amid the prevalent US dollar selling bias. This, along with signs of stability in the equity markets, extended some support to the perceived riskier aussie and pushed the AUD/USD pair higher for the second straight day. The FOMC announced its monetary policy decision on Wednesday and sounded optimistic, acknowledging that the economy has made progress towards the maximum employment and price stability goals. However, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell took a dovish turn at the post-meeting press conference and emphasised that they were some ways away from substantial progress on jobs. Powell was also cautious about tapering and said that policymakers discussed some details but it will take a few more meetings to get into it. The difference in tone between the statement and Powell's remarks weighed heavily on the greenback. Apart from this, a further decline in the US Treasury bond yields dragged the USD Index to the 92.00 neighbourhood or two-week lows. That said, concerns about the economic fallout from the fast-spreading Delta variant of the coronavirus acted as a headwind for the Australian dollar and capped gains for the AUD/USD pair. In fact, New South Wales reported 239 news cases on Wednesday, the highest in 16 months. The authorities have said they want that number near zero before lifting restrictions on July 30 target date. Even from a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair, so far, has been struggling to make it through the 0.7400 round figure. This further makes it prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before confirming that the pair has bottomed out in the near term and positioning for any meaningful appreciating move. Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket – highlighting the releases of the Advance second-quarter US GDP print, Initial Weekly Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales. The first estimate is expected to show that growth in the world's largest economy accelerated by a robust 8.6% annualized pace during the April-June quarter. The data, along with the US bond yields, might influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to the AUD/USD pair. Traders will further take cues from the broader market risk sentiment and development surrounding the coronavirus saga to grab some short-term opportunities around the major. Technical levels to watch  

In opinion of Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research, the uptrend in EUR/USD appears limited by the 200-day SMA in the 1.2000 neighbo

In opinion of Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research, the uptrend in EUR/USD appears limited by the 200-day SMA in the 1.2000 neighbourhood. Key Quotes “EUR/USD maintained its near term upside correction yesterday. We would allow for a rebound into the 1.1860/1.1930 band. It will face tougher overhead resistance at 1.1884/82, the highs from last week and the 23.6% retracement and currently we are looking for the 200- day ma at 1.2008 to cap the topside.” “Below 1.1750 attention will revert to the September, November and March lows at 1.1704/1.1600.”

Traders trimmed their open interest positions for the second session in a row on Wednesday, this time by around 5.3K contracts considering preliminary

Traders trimmed their open interest positions for the second session in a row on Wednesday, this time by around 5.3K contracts considering preliminary figures from CME Group. Volume, instead, reversed two consecutive daily pullbacks and went up by around 175.1K contracts. Gold now flirts with the 200-day SMAGold prices extended the rebound past the $1,800 mark per ounce troy on Wednesday. The uptick, however, was on the back of shrinking open interest, although the increase in volume was noticeable. That said, the 200-day SMA in the $1,820 area emerges as the initial target ahead of the monthly peaks near $1,835 (July 15).

South Africa M3 Money Supply (YoY) dipped from previous 1.82% to 0.12% in June

South Africa Private Sector Credit dipped from previous -0.42% to -0.54% in June

Denmark Industrial Outlook climbed from previous 4 to 6 in July

Copper prices advance to $4.5040, up 0.50% on a day, as European traders await the bell to begin Thursday’s work. The red metal bounced off an ascendi

Copper picks up bids to snap two-day downtrend.Bearish MACD, nearby resistance line challenge bulls below weekly top.200-SMA offers strong downside support, June 11 high adds to the upside filters.Copper prices advance to $4.5040, up 0.50% on a day, as European traders await the bell to begin Thursday’s work. The red metal bounced off an ascending trend line from July 19 the previous day even as bearish MACD and a two-day-old resistance line, around $4.5530, test intraday buyers. Also acting as the upside barriers are highs marked during June 11 and July 27, respectively around $4.5950 and $4.6275. In a case where the commodity bulls cross the $4,6275 hurdle, June’s top surrounding $4,7070 will be in focus. Alternatively, a downside break of the immediate support line near $4.4400 should confirm a short-term south-run targeting 200-SMA level near $4.3180. Though, any further weakness past $4.3180 can renew the monthly low, currently around $4.1665. Price of Copper: Four-hour chart Trend: Further recovery expected

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, July 29: The dollar is down after the Fed seems to be in no rush to taper bond buys, providing support to s

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, July 29: The dollar is down after the Fed seems to be in no rush to taper bond buys, providing support to stocks and gold. The first release of US GDP is in the spotlight on Thursday. Covid continues spreading in the US and also bumping up in the UK. Cryptocurrencies have stabilized on higher ground. Tapering can wait: The Federal Reserve has left its policy unchanged as expected and said it would consider adjusting its bond-buying scheme in "coming meetings." It continues seeing inflation as transitory and Fed Chair Jerome Powell characterized "substantial further progress" in the labor market as still "a ways off."  While Powell seemed less worried about the economic impact of the Delta covid variant, he refused to provide any comment about the Fed's next big even – the Jackson Hole Symposium. With the lack of urge to decrease the bank's $120 billion/month purchases of bonds, the dollar dropped sharply across the board. FOMC : The statement giveth and Powell taketh away Fed Analysis: Powell only takes a baby step toward tapering, why the dollar could diveEUR/USD is hovering around 1.1860, the highest in two weeks and as coronavirus cases continue moving up in the old continent. Germay's employment figures are eyed. GBP/USD is hovering well above 1.39, the highest since June, despite a bump up in covid cases in the UK, breaking a seven-day streak of drops. Nevertheless, UK infections are off the peak.  In stock markets, Facebook's results and projections somewhat disappointed, but Chinese authorities continue easing pressures on tech companies after Beijing's crackdown on several firms early in the week. The overall mood in global markets is positive. AUD/USD is trading closer to 0.74.USD/CAD is changing hands below 1.24, benefiting from the risk-on mood, and the rise of WTI Crude Oil to around $73 and after Canada reported mixed results.  The highlight of the day is America's first release of Gross Domestic Product data for the second quarter. Economists expect bumper annualized growth of 8.6%.  See US Q2 GDP Preview: Economy to continue to expand at strong pace, eyes on FOMCDeal: A bipartisan group of Senators and the White House reached an agreement on a $1 trillion infrastructure spending bill. The legislation still has additional hurdles to pass and Democrats are already mulling an additional, larger package.  Cryptocurrencies have been consolidating their gains, with Bitcoin clinging to $40,000 and Ethereum around $2,300.  More Analyzing inter-market correlations to see if reflation trade is coming to an end – July 2021

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted the upside momentum in EUR/USD is expected to meet solid resistance in the vicinity of 1.1900. Key Quotes 24-hour vi

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted the upside momentum in EUR/USD is expected to meet solid resistance in the vicinity of 1.1900. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that ‘there is room for the advance in EUR to extend but it is unlikely to challenge the major resistance at 1.1860’. EUR subsequently dropped briefly to 1.1771 during NY session before snapping back to a high of 1.1849. Upward momentum has improved a tad and a breach of 1.1860 would not be surprising. That said, the next major resistance at 1.1895 is not expected to come under threat. Support is at 1.1820 followed by 1.1800.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Two days ago (27 Jul, spot at 1.1800), we noted that downward pressure has dissipated and we expected EUR to trade within a 1.1750/1.1860 range for a period of time. Since then, upward momentum has improved slightly and EUR could move above 1.1860 but at this stage, any advance is expected to face solid resistance at 1.1895. On the downside, a break of 1.1770 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the current mild upward pressure has eased.”

GBP/JPY moves cautiously toward the 153.00 mark in the European trading hour on Thursday. The pair hovers in a narrow trade band. At the time of writi

GBP/JPY accumulates gains for the past two sessionsThe sterling benefits from the drop in fresh coronavirus cases.Yen remains on backfoot on IMF downgrade and renewed Delta variant threat.GBP/JPY moves cautiously toward the 153.00 mark in the European trading hour on Thursday. The pair hovers in a narrow trade band. At the time of writing, the GBP/JPY pair is trading at 152.88, up 0.09% for the day. The sterling remains firm after the reports that the UK’s coronavirus infections drop for the seventh consecutive day to 23,511 on Tuesday.  The optimism surrounding Brexit also boosts the sentiment around the British Pound. In the latest development, the EU pauses its two separate lawsuits against the UK. It is worth noting that, the S&P 500 Futures are trading at 4,389 with 0.10% losses. On the other hand, the Japanese yen pares its gains after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut Japan’s growth forecast to 2.8% in 2021 from earlier 3.3%. The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) Summary of Opinions reveals policymakers worries over the economic recovery due to the rapid spread of the Delta variant. On the economic data front, Japan’s Leading Index eases in May to 102.6 from 103.8 in April. As for now, the market dynamics continues to influence the pair’s performance. GBP/JPY additional levels
 

FX option expiries for July 29 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1790-1.1800 1.6b 1.1850 1.7b 1.186

FX option expiries for July 29 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts         1.1790-1.1800 1.6b 1.1850 1.7b 1.1860-70 1.1b 1.1900-10 1.1b - GBP/USD: GBP amounts         1.3750-55 539m 1.3900 564m - USD/JPY: USD amounts          110.00 735m 110.90-00 905m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.7385 429m 0.7400 636m 0.7500 594m - USD/CAD: USD amounts        1.2330 966m   1.2500 366m 1.2600 420m - NZD/USD: NZD amounts 0.6940 419m

NZD/USD edges higher around 0.6970, intraday high intraday 0.6973, as European traders prepare for Thursday’s bell. The kiwi pair not only cheers the

NZD/USD rises for the first day in three, refreshes intraday top of late.China rescues stocks after IT, private education crackdown.US dollar tracks Treasury yields to refresh two-week low.Bulls ignore soft NZ data ahead of US Q2 GDP, updates concerning covid, US stimulus are also important.NZD/USD edges higher around 0.6970, intraday high intraday 0.6973, as European traders prepare for Thursday’s bell. The kiwi pair not only cheers the broad US dollar weakness but also benefits from Chinese headlines to consolidate the weekly losses. In doing so, the quote ignores covid woes in Asia-Pacific, especially at the key customer Australia, as well as downbeat data at home. US Dollar Index (DXY) prints 0.15% losses on a day by the press time, testing the lowest level since July 12. The greenback gauge stays pressured for the fourth day as the Fed refrains from entertaining taper requests and the US Senators are finally ready to discuss President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending bill after weeks of haggling. Elsewhere, the People’s Bank Of China (PBOC) followed the Chinese Security body’s push to tame equity bears. “The PBOC pumped in 30 billion yuan ($4.6 billion) of liquidity into the financial system with seven-day reverse repurchase agreements, resulting in a net injection of 20 billion yuan on Thursday,” said Bloomberg. Earlier in Asia, CNBC came out with the news suggesting the China Securities Regulatory Commission’s (CSRC) conciliatory moves. It should be noted, however, that the Delta covid variant and downbeat prints of New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence and Activity Outlook for July raise doubts over the NZD/USD pair’s further upside. Market sentiment also dwindles, as portrayed by the US Treasury yields and stock futures, which in turn could create hardships for the kiwi bulls. Above all, increasing odds of the RBNZ’s rate cut in August keeps the NZD/USD buyers hopeful. Even so, preliminary readings of the US Q2 GDP and risk catalysts can offer intermediate clues to the pair traders. Technical analysis Unless crossing a monthly resistance line near the 0.7000 threshold, NZD/USD bulls stay unconvinced.  

EUR/GBP came under pressure and retreats below the 0.8520 level in the European trading hours. The pair confides in a narrow trade band with a downsid

EUR/GBP edges lower on Thursday in the initial European trading session.Cross hovers in the broader consolidation range of 0.8520 and 0.8700.Momentum oscillators trade skid below the midline with caution for upside momentum.EUR/GBP came under pressure and retreats below the 0.8520 level in the European trading hours. The pair confides in a narrow trade band with a downside bias. At the time of writing, EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8512, down 0.07% for the day. EUR/GBP daily chart On the daily chart, the EUR/GBP cross has been moving in a broader trading channel of 0.8520 and 0.8700 since April with one breakout in between.  A sustained move below the intraday low would meet with the first support at the 0.8500 horizontal support level. In doing so, next to EUR/GBP could test the levels last seen in February. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator trades just below the midline, with a bearish crossover. Any downtick in the MACD would prompt bears to retest the low of 0.8472 made on April 5 followed by the February 27 low at 0.8433. Alternatively, if price moves higher, it will shrug off the current downside momentum. In that case, the first upside target emerges at the 0.8525 horizontal resistance level. The next upside target appears at the 0.8540 horizontal resistance level followed by the high of July 26 at 0.8573. EUR/GBP additional levels  

USD/CNH takes offers around $6.4770, down 0.14% intraday, amid early Thursday. The Chinese yuan (CNH) bulls battle the key support line stretched from

USD/CNH teases rising wedge bearish pattern’s confirmation, offered near intraday high.Failure to cross 200-DMA, downbeat Momentum line also favor sellers.Bulls need fresh high of the month to retake controls.USD/CNH takes offers around $6.4770, down 0.14% intraday, amid early Thursday. The Chinese yuan (CNH) bulls battle the key support line stretched from May-end while extending pullback from 200-DMA. The pullback becomes crucial as the stated trend line forms a part of multi-day-old rising wedge bearish formation and daily closing below $6.4800, which will trigger the theoretical fall towards a fresh yearly low. It’s worth noting that the downward-sloping Momentum line and failures to cross 200-DMA, not to forget fundamental challenges for the US dollar, back the USD/CNH bears. During the anticipated south-run, the monthly bottom surrounding $6.4500 and early May’s low near $6.4040 could test the sellers ahead of the yearly trough of $6.3524. On the contrary, a daily closing beyond $6.4800 could trigger a corrective bounce towards the 200-DMA level of $6.4980. However, any further upside will be challenged by the stated wedge’s resistance line near $6.5250. Overall, USD/CNH stands near the key level but keeps bears hopeful. USD/CNH: Daily chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

Palladium (XPD/USD) rebounds from the weekly top, up 0.34% intraday around $2,615, ahead of Thursday’s European session. The precious metal dropped du

Palladium snaps three-day downside, recovers from weekly bottom.Bulls track gold prices amid downbeat DXY performance.US GDP, covid updates eyed for fresh impulse.Palladium (XPD/USD) rebounds from the weekly top, up 0.34% intraday around $2,615, ahead of Thursday’s European session. The precious metal dropped during the last three days before recently tracking gold prices, also taking clues from the US dollar, to portray the corrective pullback. With the Fed’s refrain from speaking much on the tapering and US policymakers’ initial voting to discuss another stimulus, US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped to the lowest since July 13, down for the fourth consecutive day. Also weighing on the greenback could be an upbeat earnings season and comparatively stronger covid conditions than Australia, Europe and the UK. That said, the DXY prints 0.12% losses on a day by the press time, tracking the US Treasury yields and S&P 500 Futures to the south. It’s worth noting that the US dollar’s weakness directs the safe-haven flows to the gold as covid conditions in Asia-Pacific worsens. Amid these plays, gold prices refresh one-week high, up 0.45% around $1,815 at the time of the press, the same favors other precious metals, namely silver and palladium to pick up bids. Moving on, today’s first reading of the US Q2 GDP, expected 8.6% annualized versus 6.4% prior, could offer fresh direction to the XPD/USD prices as any further strengthening of the growth figures could exert additional downside pressure on the DXY and favor metals. Alternatively, a surprise weakness could put a floor under the US dollar declines and trigger the commodity’s pullback. Technical analysis Palladium battles the previous support line from June 18 around $2,620 after posting a trend-reversal suggesting candlestick the previous day. Also challenging the bulls is a downward sloping resistance line from July 12, near $2,655. On the contrary, 200-DMA near $2,550 becomes a strong support for XPD/USD bears to conquer before retaking the controls.  

USD/CAD extends the previous session’s losses in the early European session. The pair breaches the 1.2500 psychological level on Tuesday. At the time

USD/CAD prints losses for the previous two sessions consecutively.US dollar retreats from the weekly highs over Fed’s dovish stance on the interest rate.The Canadian dollar gains on the upbeat economic data and higher crude oil prices.USD/CAD extends the previous session’s losses in the early European session. The pair breaches the 1.2500 psychological level on Tuesday. At the time of writing, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2487, down 0.32% for the day. The Canadian dollar rose against the greenback after the annual inflation rate eased to 3.1% in June, from a 10-year high of 3.6% in May, and as compared to market forecasts of 3.2%. The optimism was also boosted by the higher crude oil prices and improved market sentiment that helped the loonie to recoil from its lower levels. Crude oil prices, one of Canada’s major exports, traded near at $72.62 with 0.32% gains.  The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback performance against its six major rivals stands lower at 91.15%. The Fed’s dovish tone capped any upside momentum in the greenback. The Fed kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the record-low level of near-zero amid growing concerns over the rising inflation and the Delta variant. On the economic docket, traders await for the US Price Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) Index, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Initial Jobless Claims data to take fresh trading impetus. USD/CAD additional levels  
 

USD/INR remains depressed for the second consecutive day after stepping back from 21-DMA, down 0.17% intraday around 74.30 during early Thursday. In d

USD/INR extends pullback from 21-DMA, stays pressured near intraday low.Bearish MACD, descending RSI line back the pair sellers.Ascending trend line from late June, five-month-old horizontal area challenge further downside.USD/INR remains depressed for the second consecutive day after stepping back from 21-DMA, down 0.17% intraday around 74.30 during early Thursday. In doing so, the Indian rupee (INR) pair battles a five-week-old support line near a horizontal area comprising multiple levels since February 26. Considering the most bearish signals from the MACD since late May, coupled with the gradually descending RSI, USD/INR sellers should remain hopeful to break the stated support line, near 74.30, followed by the broad support zone above 74.18. Also challenge the pair’s south-run could be the late June’s swing low and 50-DMA, respectively around the 74.00 threshold and 73.88. Meanwhile, USD/INR buyers are less likely to take the risk of entries until the quote jumps back above the 21-DMA level of 74.55. Following that, the monthly peak near 75.00 and 75.30 may test the pair bulls ahead of directing them to the yearly high surrounding 75.65. USD/INR: Daily chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

AUD/USD prints mild gain for the second straight day on Thursday in the Asian trading hours. The pair hovers in a very narrow range with a bullish bia

AUD/USD consolidates gains in the Asian session on Thursday.Bulls face consistent resistance near 0.7380 level.Oversold MACD implies a wait-and-watch approach before placing aggressive bids.AUD/USD prints mild gain for the second straight day on Thursday in the Asian trading hours. The pair hovers in a very narrow range with a bullish bias. At the time of writing,  AUD/USD is trading at 0.7376, up 0.02% for the day. AUD/USD daily chart On the daily chart, the pair has been under selling pressure from the high of 0.7794 made on June 7 and touched the lows of 0.7288 on July 21.  The descending trendline from the above high acts as a strong resistance for the pair.  The trendline coincides with the break of the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7740. That said, if price breaks and sustains above the intraday session, then it could move toward the 0.7400 key psychological mark A daily close above the 0.7400 level would further push AUD/USD higher to the high of July 16 at 0.7444. The oversold Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator with stretched selling opportunities, makes bulls hopeful for further upside movement. In doing so, the bulls would attempt to retest the 0.7480 horizontal resistance level.
 
Alternatively, any downtick in the MACD could drag the pair toward the 0.7350 horizontal support level. AUD/USD bears would aim to reach the low of July 21 at 0.7288. The next area of support emerges at the level last seen on November 23, 2020, at 0.7264. AUD/USD additional levels  

GBP/USD bulls poke late June’s tops, up 0.15% intraday around 1.3925, heading into Thursday’s London open. In doing so, the cable pair rises for the f

GBP/USD picks up bids to refresh multi-day high during four-day uptrend.US dollar tracks Treasury yields to the south despite Fed’s dovish tilt.EU softens legal threat over NI protocol on demand of UK’s Frost.UK scraps quarantine rules for fully vaccinated EU, US travelers.GBP/USD bulls poke late June’s tops, up 0.15% intraday around 1.3925, heading into Thursday’s London open. In doing so, the cable pair rises for the fourth consecutive day amid mildly positive headlines concerning Brexit and covid from the UK, as well as broad US dollar weakness. Britain’s covid infections drop for the seventh consecutive day to 23,511 on Tuesday, helping UK PM Boris Johnson to say, per Reuters, "We want people to be able to come from the US freely in a way that they normally do. We're talking to them the whole time.” The British move seems to pay a little heed to the highest death toll since March. Elsewhere, New South Wales (NSW) conveyed 239 new cases for the 24 hours ending on July 28, the highest figures in 16 months, fueling the national number to the August 2020 levels. Further, Delta covid variant pushes Twitter to shut down offices in San Francisco and New York. It’s worth noting that the European Union’s (EU) softening of stand over legal threat if the UK alters the Northern Ireland (NI) protocol also favors the GBP/USD upside as the move was demanded by UK Brexit Minister David Frost to negotiate the protocol with the bloc. “The delay in legal action, confirmed by an EU spokesperson, comes after EU ambassadors were told last week that the bloc was planning to file a so-called reasoned opinion by the end of the month,” said Bloomberg. Also contributing to the GBP/USD upside could be the US dollar’s declines during the post-Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements. The US Dollar Index (DXY) drops for the fourth consecutive day, to the lowest in 12 days, as the Fed refrains from tapering. Additionally, optimism surrounding US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending bill also weighs on the greenback as Senators backed the initial debate during Wednesday’s voting. Looking forward, Brexit and covid updates remain the key for GBP/USD traders as recently optimism bode well for the bulls. However, today’s first reading of the US Q2 GDP, expected 8.6% annualized versus 6.4% prior, should also be closely observed for fresh impulse. Technical analysis Bullish MACD and firm RSI enable GBP/USD to battle 100-DMA near 1.3925-30, a break of which could escalate the run-up towards a five-month-old horizontal resistance around 1.4000–4010 area. Meanwhile, the previous resistance line from June 23, surrounding 1.3840 restricts the short-term downside of the pair.  

To calm nerves and stabilize the domestic equity market, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) made massive liquidity injections into the financial system

To calm nerves and stabilize the domestic equity market, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) made massive liquidity injections into the financial system to stem the collapse in the Chinese stocks amid regulatory risks, per Bloomberg. Key takeaways “The PBOC pumped in 30 billion yuan ($4.6 billion) of liquidity into the financial system with seven-day reverse repurchase agreements, resulting in a net injection of 20 billion yuan on Thursday. “ “The operation marked the authorities’ first short-term cash addition of more than 10 billion yuan since June 30.” “The yield on the most actively traded contract of 10-year government bonds fell the first time in three days after rising by the most in a year on Tuesday.” Market reaction Amidst conciliatory articles from the state-run media and the central bank’s supportive measures, the Chinese stocks opened in the green for the first time this week.

The selling tone surrounding the US dollar amid falling US Treasury yields keeps EUR/USD on the verge of daily gains. After touching the low of 1.1753

EUR/USD continues to notch higher  on Thursday in the Asian sessionUS Treasury yields undermine the demand for the US dollar.US Dollar Index retreats towards a two-week low on Powell’s comments.The selling tone surrounding the US dollar amid falling US Treasury yields keeps EUR/USD on the verge of daily gains. After touching the low of 1.1753, the pair continues to march higher since the beginning of the week  At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1855, up 0.11% on the day. The successive gains in  EUR/USD were primarily credited to the downbeat performance of the US dollar.  The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the greenback against the six majors, remained on the backfoot amid falling US Treasury yields. The tug of war between growth and inflationary concerns took a toll on Fed’s latest monetary policy’s meeting.  The Fed left the target range for its federal rates unchanged at 0-0.25% and assets purchasing also remained unchanged at the current pace of  $120 billion. In addition to that, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that although there has been substantial improvement in the economy still there is a way to go before the central bank would adjust its ultra-accommodative policy, which also kept investors away from the US dollar. 
On the other hand, the single currency is boosted by the upbeat economic data and general risk-on mood. The IHS Markit Eurozone Composite PMI rose to 60.6 in June from 59.5 in the previous month.
 
Being said, the stronger economic data in the US and  Eurozone improved the risk appetite and drove market participants towards riskier assets. The risk-on market sentiment favors EUR/USD upside gains.
The important data on the economic calendar to look out for would be the EURO Unemployment Rate, Consumer Confidence data, and German Haromized Inflation Rate. The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Initial Jobless Claims would also be on the trader’s radar. EUR/USD additional levels
 

The Fed once again came to the rescue of the bulls, lifting gold price from around the key support around $1792 to take on the upside beyond the $1800

Gold price rallied towards SMA200 one-day on dovish Fed. Covid concerns underpin the safe-haven gold despite risk rebound. Gold bears await break below 100-day SMA at $1,796The Fed once again came to the rescue of the bulls, lifting gold price from around the key support around $1792 to take on the upside beyond the $1800 mark. So far this Thursday, gold price is extending the post-Fed rally towards the critical SMA200 one-day at $1821, as Chair Jerome Powell expressed no hurry to embark upon the tapering journey. Powell also dismissed higher inflation as transitory. The dovish Fed outcome smashed the US dollar alongside the Treasury yields, reviving gold buyers. Meanwhile, rising covid cases globally also keep gold’s safe-haven appeal alive, as investors now look forward to the US advance Q2 GDP report for fresh hints on the economic recovery, which could have a significant impact on gold trades. Gold Price: Key levels to watchThe Technical Confluences Detector shows that gold has recaptured critical resistance at $1815, which is the convergence of the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month, pivot point one-day R1 and Bollinger Band one-hour Upper. A firm break above the latter has opened gates towards $18211, the intersection of the SMA200 one-day and pivot point one-week R1. If the buyers seize control above that barrier, then a test of the previous week’s high of $1825 could be in the offing. The next relevant upside target is envisioned at the Bollinger Band one-day Upper. The confluence of the SMA50 one-day and the pivot point one-day R3 at $1832 is the last line of defense for gold bears. Alternatively, a dense cluster of healthy support levels is stacked up near $1811, which will offer an immediate cushion to the downside. That zone is the meeting point of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week, previous day’s high and Bollinger Band four-hour Upper. Bulls will then seek some support at $1807, the SMA10 one-day. Further south, the bears need to crack this key demand zone around $1804, where the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day and one-week coincide with the SMA50 four-hour and SMA5 one-day. The confluence of the SMA100 one-day and Fibonacci 61.8% one-day at $1798 is the level to beat for gold sellers. Here is how it looks on the tool        About Technical Confluences Detector The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

Despite the improving market sentiment, thanks to China’s conciliatory remarks and Fed’s reassurance, the latest coronavirus vaccines update and the r

Despite the improving market sentiment, thanks to China’s conciliatory remarks and Fed’s reassurance, the latest coronavirus vaccines update and the relentless rise in the virus cases globally offer little reprieve to the markets. According to data released on Wednesday, the effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine fell from 96% to 84% over six months, The preprint study showed that the efficacy “declined gradually” to 83.7% within six months, with an average decrease of about 6% every two months. On the covid count front, Australia continues to battle the surge in infections, with Sydney reporting 239 new cases on Wednesday vs. 177 recorded a day ago. Across the Pacific, rising cases have caused Twitter to shut down its offices in San Francisco and New York once again while Disney has reinstated mask mandate in its California and Florida parks. Related readsUS Treasury yields, S&P 500 Futures portray risk-off moodForex Today: Dollar down as Fed is in no rush to taper

Market sentiment sours amid Thursday’s Asian session. As a result, the risk barometers, namely US Treasury yields and stock futures remain pressured d

US 10-year Treasury yields print three-day downtrend around 1.23%, S&P 500 Futures extend drop below 4,400.Fed resists talking taper, Senators back debate on Biden’s infrastructure stimulus.Preliminary readings on the US Q2 GDP will be the key to watch going forward.Market sentiment sours amid Thursday’s Asian session. As a result, the risk barometers, namely US Treasury yields and stock futures remain pressured despite some positives that might have favored bulls. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields print three basis points (bps) of a drop to 1.23%, down for the third consecutive day whereas S&P 500 Futures drops 0.17% by the press time. The risk aversion takes clues from the Delta covid variant woes. Australia’s New South Wales conveyed 239 new cases for the 24 hours ending on July 28, the highest figures in 16 months, fueling the national number to the August 2020 levels. On the same line, the US and the UK also witness a jump in the Delta covid variant of late. The same push Twitter to shut down offices in San Francisco and New York while the UK’s unlock is being questioned again. Additionally, Kyodo News said, "Japan's daily total of COVID-19 cases topped 9,000 for the first time on Wednesday, with a surge in infections in Tokyo casting a pall over the Olympics and putting pressure on the government of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga to take stronger countermeasures." On a different page, US policymakers backed procedural voting on President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending plan. However, a bumpy road to the final passage and uncertainly over the budget limit challenges the optimism. Elsewhere, US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) matched wide market expectations of announcing no monetary policy change while quoting “continuing economic improvement,” during the July meeting. However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) bears the burden of comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell who said, "Economy has made progress toward goals since setting the bar for taper in December and will continue to assess progress in coming meetings." Looking forward, risk appetite may remain sour as the covid woes are widespread and challenging the economic recovery from the pandemic. However, today’s US Q2 GDP, expected 8.6% annualized versus 6.4% prior, should offer intermediate relief to the investors. Read: US Q2 GDP Preview: Economy to continue to expand at strong pace, eyes on FOMC

The price of silver was over 1.2% higher following the Fed on Wednesday and it has risen further in Asia to test daily resistance in the highs near $2

FOMC weighs on the greenback and elevates precious metals. Silver rises to test critical daily resistance on US dollar weakness.The price of silver was over 1.2% higher following the Fed on Wednesday and it has risen further in Asia to test daily resistance in the highs near $25.22. Bulls took advantage of a weaker US dollar environment and moved in on a daily resistance target in the highs of the day. The Federal Open Market Committee left the Federal Funds Rate at 0.00-0.25% in what was seen as a hawkish hold as per the statement and a note that said the "economy has made progress toward goals since setting the bar for taper in December and will continue to assess progress in coming meetings."  Meanwhile, the pace of asset purchases was left at USD120bn/month, made up of Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities. The dollar initially rallied on what was regarded as a hawkish hold but then dropped back to the start again before falling on dovish rhetoric by the chairman, Jerome Powell.  DXY 15-min chart  Powell put the emphasis of concerns on the Unemployment Rate and economic data rather than speculation of run-away inflation risks.  This has capped the upside in the greenback for the meanwhile allowing silver to move higher to test a key daily resistance area.  Silver price analysis The price has rallied a full 61.8% and the bulls now eye a break of the daily resistance for an upside extension into fresh bullish territory. 
 

AUD/USD takes offers around 0.7360, down 0.18% intraday, amid Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Aussie pair refrains from welcoming the secon

AUD/USD refreshes intraday low, reverses post Fed bounce off weekly bottom.Australia’s Import–Export Price Index came in better-than-prior for Q2 2021.NSW infections refresh 16 month top, Aussie count rises to fresh high since August 2020.US Senators approved debate on infrastructure spending plan, Fed marked dovish tilt.AUD/USD takes offers around 0.7360, down 0.18% intraday, amid Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Aussie pair refrains from welcoming the second-tier data from home and US stimulus news amid the Delta covid variant fears. It’s worth noting that the quote benefited from the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dovish tilt the previous day. Australia’s Import Price Index grew well beyond 0.2% prior to 1.9% QoQ whereas Export Price Index also crossed 11.2% previous readouts with 13.2% quarterly figures for Q2 2021. New South Wales (NSW) conveyed 239 new cases for the 24 hours ending on July 28, the highest figures in 16 months, fueling the national number to the August 2020 levels. On the contrary, Victoria marked seven new cases and extended the weekly south-run but was mostly ignored. It should be noted that the US and the UK also witness a jump in the Delta covid variant of late. The same push Twitter to shut down offices in San Francisco and New York while the UK’s unlock is being questioned again. On the positive side, US Senators backed President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending plan during the procedural vote on late Wednesday. However, a long road to success and looming uncertainty over budget limits challenge the optimists. Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures drops 0.17% and the US 10-year Treasury yields print three basis points (bps) of a drop to 1.23% by the press time. AUD/USD traders may have to wait for the US Q2 GDP’s preliminary reading, up for publishing in today’s US session, for fresh impulse. Until then, covid woes and chatters that RBA will push back tapering concerns may weigh on the quote. Read: US Q2 GDP Preview: Economy to continue to expand at strong pace, eyes on FOMC Technical analysis AUD/USD bears are bracing for the yearly low surrounding 0.7290 on repeated failures to cross the 0.7400 hurdle and a downward sloping trend line from June 11, near 0.7390.  

NZD/USD edges higher on Friday in the Asian session. The pair opened higher but retreated lower to touch the intraday lower level of 0.6940. At the ti

NZD/USD  shrugs off the previous day’s decline and gains in Asian trading hours.
More upside envisioned if price decisively breaks 0.6950.Momentum oscillator holds onto the oversold zone with a neutral bias.NZD/USD edges higher on Friday in the Asian session. The pair opened higher but retreated lower to touch the intraday lower level of 0.6940. At the time of writing, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6952, up 0.17% for the day. NZD/USD daily chart Technically speaking, the NZD/USD pair has been moving inside a broader trading range of 0.6950 and 0.7100.
 If NZD/USD sustained above 0.6960,  it could find the first resistance near the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6980. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator trades in an oversold zone. Any uptick in the MACD could trigger more buying opportunities in the pair. The bulls would see the next upside target at 0.7000 key psychological mark. NZD/USD bulls would test the 0.7050 horizontal resistance level. Alternatively, if price moves lower,  it will first locate the downside target at 0.6925 horizontal support level followed by the June 21 low at 0.6894. A daily close below the mentioned level would drag the price outside the rectangle formation. Next, the market participants would be encouraged to take over the low of November 16, 2020, at 0.6841. NZD/USD additional levels
 

Australia Export Price Index (QoQ) up to 13.2% in 2Q from previous 11.2%

Australia Import Price Index (QoQ) climbed from previous 0.2% to 1.9% in 2Q

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) reference rate at 6.4942 vs the estimated 6.4976 and the previous at 6.492

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) reference rate at 6.4942 vs the estimated 6.4976 and the previous at 6.4929. About the fix China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland. The onshore yuan (CNY) differs from the offshore one (CNH) in trading restrictions, this last one is not as tightly controlled. Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day closing level and quotations taken from the inter-bank dealer.

AUD/JPY takes offers around an intraday low of 80.85m, down 0.28% on a day, during Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the cross-currency pair fail

AUD/JPY reverses the previous day’s bounce off one-week low.Market sentiment remains sour despite Fed’s dovish tilt, progress US infrastructure spending amid Delta covid variant woes.NSW reports the highest covid daily infection since March 2020.Second-tier Aussie data, US GDP eyed for fresh impulse.AUD/JPY takes offers around an intraday low of 80.85m, down 0.28% on a day, during Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the cross-currency pair fails to extend Wednesday’s recovery moves from a one-week low amid downbeat US Treasury yields. The US 10-year Treasury yields drop three basis points (bps) to 1.23% by the press time as risk-off escalates amid downbeat virus updates. Also portraying the dull sentiment is the 0.10% intraday loss of S&P 500 Futures. Australia’s New South Wales (NSW) conveyed 239 new cases, the highest figures in 16 months, fueling the national number to the August 2020 levels. On the contrary, Victoria marked seven new cases and extended the weekly south-run but was mostly ignored. On the other hand, Japan's Kyodo News said, "Japan's daily total of COVID-19 cases topped 9,000 for the first time on Wednesday, with a surge in infections in Tokyo casting a pall over the Olympics and putting pressure on the government of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga to take stronger countermeasures." Also positive for the market sentiment, as well as for the AUD/JPY, could be the US policymakers’ asset to begin a debate on President Joe Biden’s $1.2 trillion infrastructure spending plan. The procedural votes helped Democrats to kick-start negotiations on one more stimulus package. Elsewhere, the US Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) inaction and comments like “continuing economic improvement,” also should have brightened the market’s mood. It’s worth noting that the pair cheered firmer Treasury yields and Aussie inflation data the previous day and awaits Australia Import-Export Price Index for Q2 of late. Also in the publishing pipeline is the preliminary reading of the US Q2 GDP, expected 8.6% annualized versus 6.4% prior. Read: US Q2 GDP Preview: Economy to continue to expand at strong pace, eyes on FOMC Technical analysis Failures to cross a two-week-old falling trend line resistance direction AUD/JPY prices towards the monthly low near 79.85. However, 80.60 and the 80.00 threshold may offer intermediate halts during the fall.  

USD/CHF is accumulating on the downside following the Federal Reserve's dovish tilt during the press conference which weighed on the greenback. DXY 4-

USD/CHF is on the verge of a significant correction.Bulls can target hourly and daily upside resistance structures. USD/CHF is accumulating on the downside following the Federal Reserve's dovish tilt during the press conference which weighed on the greenback.  DXY 4-hour chart As the DXY starts to recover back into test the counter trend line and resistance, near to 92.500/60, USD/CHF would be expected to be pressured to the upside. The following analysis illustrates the prospective upside targets.  Daily chart The daily chart is in need of a correction following the Fed-induced downside spike. The M-formation is a compelling feature for which the bulls can target the prior lows/support near 0.9150.  Hourly chart On the hourly chart, the accumulation would be expected to lead to a correction also and move in on prior lows in a 50% mean reversion near 0.9130, ahead of the daily target area.  If the resistance here proves too much, bears will start to take profits and a downside extension for fresh hourly lows would be on the cards. 

New Zealand ANZ Activity Outlook declined to 26.3% in July from previous 31.6%

New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence down to -3.8 in July from previous -0.6

WTI oil prices seesaw around $72.00, down 0.15% intraday, during Thursday’s Asian session. The energy benchmark refreshed two-week top the previous da

WTI steps back from two-week high as MACD teases bulls.61.8% Fibonacci retracement of early-July drop adds to the upside filters.Short-term horizontal area challenges bear’s entry, bulls can eye $75.00 on successful run-up.WTI oil prices seesaw around $72.00, down 0.15% intraday, during Thursday’s Asian session. The energy benchmark refreshed two-week top the previous day while posting a daily close beyond 21-DMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) for the first time since July 14. However, a confluence of the stated moving average and a downward sloping trend line from July 06, near $72.20, triggered the quote’s pullback afterward. As MACD teases bulls for the first time in 18 days, backed by the US dollar weakness, WTI prices may overcome the immediate hurdle surrounding $72.20. Following that, the mid-month top near $75.00 will lure the oil buyers ahead of the monthly peak of $76.40. On the flip side, 50% Fibonacci retracement and a three-week-old horizontal area, respectively around $70.70 and $70.30, will precede the $70.00 psychological magnet to challenge the WTI sellers. Should the black gold remains weak past $70.00, its gradual fall towards July 20 high near $67.50 can’t be ruled out. WTI: Daily chart Trend: Further upside expected  

AUD/NZD pares part to its previous day’s gains in Thursday's Asian session. The pair opened higher, albeit fizzled out quickly to touch the low of 1.0

AUD/NZD snaps two days’ upside momentum on Thursday.Cross hangs near multi-month resistance, weakness persist below 1.0600Momentum oscillators indicate underlying bearish sentiment.AUD/NZD pares part to its previous day’s gains in Thursday's Asian session. The pair opened higher, albeit fizzled out quickly to touch the low of 1.0587.  At the time of writing, AUD/NZD is trading at 1.0598, down 0.11% for the day. AUD/NZD daily chart On the daily chart, the AUD/NZD pair has been trading below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 1.0634.  As the pair is still performing under pressure,  a  sustained move below the intraday low would bring more weakness.  In doing so, the first lower target is found at the 1.0575  horizontal support level. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator trades below the midline with a bearish crossover.  Any downtick in the MACD would accelerate the selling toward the 1.0560 horizontal support level. Next, AUD/NZD bears would target the low of July 27 at 1.0540. Alternatively, if price moves higher, it would retest the 1.0620 horizontal resistance level. Further, a daily close above the 20-day SMA would prompt bulls to take over the previous day’s high at 1.0644. Market Participants will keep their eyes on the 1.0680 horizontal resistance level. AUD/NZD additional levels
 

US Dollar Index (DXY) remains pressured around 92.25 amid Thursday’s Asian session. The greenback gauge portrayed a three-day downtrend following the

DXY bears lick their wounds after three-day drop to mid-July lows.Fed refrains from tapering hints, US infrastructure spending plan passes procedural voting.Covid updates, China headlines can also entertain the markets.US Dollar Index (DXY) remains pressured around 92.25 amid Thursday’s Asian session. The greenback gauge portrayed a three-day downtrend following the Fed’s rejection to discuss tapering, despite staying optimistic on economic transition. Recently weighing on the quote is the news concerning US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending bill’s movement in the Senate. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced no monetary policy change, widely matching market consensus as it mentioned, “continuing economic improvement,” during the July meeting. However, comments from the US central bank Chairman Jerome Powell played smart and pushed back the force to utter tapering details despite saying, "Economy has made progress toward goals since setting the bar for taper in December and will continue to assess progress in coming meetings." It should be noted that the US Fed Funds Futures show market fully pricing in 25 basis-point tightenings by March 2023 following the FOMC announcement. The same should recall the US dollar bulls despite the recently dovish reaction. Elsewhere, the US policymakers back the initial debate on the $1.0 trillion stimulus package in the Senate during the latest procedural voting. However, hurdles concerning the budget passage and also to the bill keep challenging the optimists. Also on the risk-negative side are the covid updates from Australia and the UK where the Delta virus variant challenges economic recovery from the pandemic. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures track Wall Street to print mild losses whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields remain pressured around 1.23% by the press time. Looking forward, the preliminary readings of the US GDP for the second quarter (Q2), expected 8.6% annualized versus 6.4% prior, will be the key to follow for fresh impulse. Read: US Q2 GDP Preview: Economy to continue to expand at strong pace, eyes on FOMC Technical analysis A clear downside break of the monthly support line keeps DXY sellers hopeful. However, a broad support structure above 92.00 seems to restrict near-term moves of the greenback gauge. Read: GBP/USD tests 1.3901 resistance as markets react to Fed Powell presser, USD offered  

EUR/JPY is trading flat in a narrow range between 130.08/21. The cross is steady as the offer in the US dollar pull in USD/JPY and support EUR/USD hig

EUR/JPY is flat in the session as the focus remains on the US dollar.US ad eurozone data ahead could rock the apple cart as the euro attempts to recover. EUR/JPY is trading flat in a narrow range between 130.08/21. The cross is steady as the offer in the US dollar pull in USD/JPY and support EUR/USD higher.  Overnight, the US dollar sank to a fresh daily low as measured by the DXY in a disappointment that the Federal Reserve did not formally announce a reduction in its asset purchase program. In contrast, the Fed seems to be writing off the possibility of runaway inflation and instead is focussed on the Unemployment Rate.   In the latest data, it is seen that some 9.5 million US workers were unemployed in June 2021, compared with 5.7 million in February 2020, and the unemployment rate stood at 5.9%, up from 3.5%, seasonally adjusted. Therefore, the Fed is still some way off from making an announcement and is by no means on the verge of creating a taper tantrum in the rates markets. However, the admission that the US economy has made “further progress” towards the central bank’s goals means T-Day is not far away. August’s Jackson Hole Symposium has been cited as a possible venue for such an announcement, if not, then the September Fed meeting will be the focus.  The announcement will be depending on how strong data comes out over the next few weeks but tapering would be deemed to start in the fourth quarter and likely extending into the fourth quarter of 2022. Rate rises are unlikely before 2023. However, the divergence between the central banks should help to underpin the greenback in the medium term. As for the euro, on a jam-packed week for euroland data as the bloc exits its technical recession, hopes for much stronger growth in the third quarter are dashed as the Delta variant spreads.  Data so far has been bleak, especially in Germany. The Unemployment Rates and Change will be the focus for the day ahead as well as Confidence in the EU which is at a two-decade high currently.  However, what might be more impactful on the euro will be US data which could serve to underpin the greenback that is in desperate need of a lift.  Today’s preliminary reading of US second-quarter Gross Domestic Produce, expected 8.6% annualized versus 6.4% prior, will be closely monitored, so to will PCE on Friday.       

Having heard “the same” from the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Goldman Sachs came out with a hawkish update suggesting the tapering countdo

Having heard “the same” from the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Goldman Sachs came out with a hawkish update suggesting the tapering countdown to start from September 21-22 meeting. Goldman also expects the formal announcement to roll out in the December FOMC meeting. Read: Powell speech: There is little support for tapering MBS earlier than Treasuries It’s worth mentioning that the US Fed Funds Futures show market fully pricing in 25 basis-point tightening by March 2023 following the FOMC announcement. The same should recall the US dollar bulls despite the recent meh to the Fed announcements. Currently, updates over infrastructure spending become the key, as well as Q2 US GDP, for near-term market moves. Read: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD stays firmer above $1,800 after Fed showdown

The depreciative move in the US dollar keeps USD/CHF edgy in the initial Asian trading hours. The pair moves in a narrow trading range in a less than

USD/CHF continues with its downside momentum for the third straight session.Uptick in US 10-year Treasury yields fail to uplift the demand for the US dollarSwiss franc gains on its safe have appeal amid risk-off mood.The depreciative move in the US dollar keeps USD/CHF edgy in the initial Asian trading hours. The pair moves in a narrow trading range in a less than 10-pips movement with a negative outlook. At the time of writing, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9099, down 0.01% for the day. The US dollar index trades at 92.27 with 0.17% losses. Investors dampen the greenback after the Fed’s dovish monetary policy stance. The US 10-year benchmark yields remain unchanged with little traction after the US central bank concluded its two-day meeting of the FOMC by keeping interest rates in a target range near to zero as widely expected. Meanwhile, as per the Reuters reports, the US bipartisan infrastructure bill of approximately $1 trillion received 60 votes to advance in US Senate toward formal debate and possible passage. It is worth noting that S&P Futures were trading at 4,392 with 0.02% losses. On the other hand, the Swiss franc rose largely on its safe-haven appeal as investors rushed towards the safer assets amid risk uncertainty. The Swiss Investor Sentiment Index fell to 42.8 in July amid renewed coronavirus induced fears. As for now, traders are waiting for the  US Initial Jobless Claim data, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to gauge the market sentiment. USD/CHF additional levels  

Japan Foreign Bond Investment: ¥-1087.4B (July 16) vs ¥-1217.8B

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks declined to ¥-58.5B in July 16 from previous ¥-10.5B

GBP/JPY consolidates recent gains around the two-week top, down 0.03% near 152.80 during Thursday’s Asian session. Even so, the pair buyers remain hop

GBP/JPY eases from two-week top, keeps breakout of 100-DMA, monthly falling trend line.Firmer Momentum line, successful break of key upside hurdles direct buyers towards a resistance line stretched from late May.GBP/JPY consolidates recent gains around the two-week top, down 0.03% near 152.80 during Thursday’s Asian session. Even so, the pair buyers remain hopeful as it holds an upside break of a downward sloping trend line from June 24 and 100-DMA amid a firmer Momentum line. Hence, pullback moves may aim for 100-DMA, around 152.60, but any further weakness will be challenged by the previous resistance line near the 152.00 threshold. It’s worth mentioning that the pair’s sustained downside past 152.00 will aim for June’s low of 151.30 whereas early July lows near 150.65 and monthly bottom close to 148.45 should be watched closely afterward. Alternatively, the 153.90–154.00 area comprising the monthly top and a descending resistance line from May 28 will be the key resistance to watch during the fresh upside of GBP/JPY prices. However, a daily closing beyond 154.00 won’t hesitate to challenge the mid-June high near 155.50. GBP/JPY: Daily chart Trend: Bullish  

As per the prior analysis, GBP/CAD Price Analysis: Bear stepping in to target downside liquidity, the market has indeed moved lower and the following

GBP/CAD bears testing the 50% mean reversion level near 1.7410. Bears eyes the daily support structure near 1.7350.  As per the prior analysis, GBP/CAD Price Analysis: Bear stepping in to target downside liquidity, the market has indeed moved lower and the following illustrates where traders can take advantage. Prior analysis, daily chart''... the daily outlook is bearish below 1.7440 to pick up liquidity from the prior resistance that meets the 10-day EMA.''Live market analysis In today's lows of 1.7395, the price is testing the daily 38.2% Fibonacci of the recent bullish daily impulse. A break of here will likely encourage more selling towards a downside target of 1.7350. Daily chart Hourly chart The price on the hourly chart is moving down the Fibonacci scale one level at a time.  The next stop is the 61.8% Fibo on a break of the 50% mean reversion level near 1.7410.  15-min chart On a break of the 15-min support structure, bears will be keen to enter on a retest of the area for a discount in order to target the daily structure near the 1.7350s. 

USD/CAD stays depressed around 1.2525, down 0.07% on a day, amid Thursday’s Asian session. The Loonie pair dropped the most in a week the previous day

USD/CAD bears take a breather following the heaviest fall in a week.Firmer WTI oil prices extend post Fed weakness, US stimulus news also favor bears.Canada CPI, covid woes fail to disappoint sellers ahead of US Q2 GDP.USD/CAD stays depressed around 1.2525, down 0.07% on a day, amid Thursday’s Asian session. The Loonie pair dropped the most in a week the previous day after the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Also favoring the pair sellers is the oil prices strength and chatters over the procedural passage of the US infrastructure spending bill. The Fed matched wide marked expectations of announcing no monetary policy change, despite mentioning, “continuing economic improvement,” during the July meeting. However, it’s Chairman Jerome Powell who weighed down the US dollar by saying, "Economy has made progress toward goals since setting the bar for taper in December and will continue to assess progress in coming meetings." Elsewhere, prices of WTI oil refreshed two week top as downbeat US dollar and higher-than-expected depletion in the official inventories from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) favored the Canadian dollar (CAD) due to Ottawa heavy reliance on energy export. Also negative for the USD/CAD prices could be the latest headlines from Reuters confirming that the US Republican Party has enough votes to push President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending plans in the Senate. The latest update said that the bill has 67 votes in favor to to begin a debate. It’s worth mentioning that the previous day’s Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for June mostly matched market consensus and offered no challenges to the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) hawkish view, which in turn were ignored ahead of the Fed. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures struggle for clear direction and so do oil prices amid a quiet session with a light calendar in Asia. Hence, today’s preliminary reading of US Q2 GDP, expected 8.6% annualized versus 6.4% prior, will be the key. Additionally, covid updates, oil price moves and stimulus news could also entertain USD/CAD traders. Read: US Q2 GDP Preview: Economy to continue to expand at strong pace, eyes on FOMC Technical analysis 21-DMA and an ascending support line from June 11 restrict immediate downside around 1.2520. However, USD/CAD bulls are less likely to enter until the quote stays below the 200-DMA level of 1.2600.  

GBP/USD refreshes daily high in the Asian trading session Thursday. The pair extends the previous two day’s gains and recoups the 1.3900 mark. At the

GBP/USD continues to move higher consecutively for the past three sessions.US dollar remains persistently below 92.50 after Fed’s dovish stance.The sterling holds the ground on a remarkable drop in COVID-19 cases.GBP/USD refreshes daily high in the Asian trading session Thursday. The pair extends the previous two day’s gains and recoups the 1.3900 mark. At the time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3908, up 0.07% for the day. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback performance against its six major rivals, trades below 92.50, with 0.17 losses. Investors ditched the greenback after Fed left the key rates unchanged to record low and the pace of bond-buying in its latest monetary policy. US Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the US economy remained far from the dual mandates of stable prices and maximum employment, despite substantial further progress. The comments weighed on the prospects of the US dollar On the other hand, the sterling gains ground after the reports surfaced that cases of COVID-19 in Britain have dropped for the sixth straight day. Meantime, the EU pauses legal action against the UK over the Northern Ireland (NI) protocol. As for now, investors await the US Gross Domestic Data (GDP), Initial Jobless Claims, and Personal Consumption Expenditure Prices to take fresh trading impetus. GBP/USD additional levels
 

Reuters reports that ''a bipartisan infrastructure package of roughly $1 trillion received the 60 votes necessary to advance in the 100-seat US Senate

Reuters reports that ''a bipartisan infrastructure package of roughly $1 trillion received the 60 votes necessary to advance in the 100-seat US Senate on Wednesday, passing a key milestone that moves the emerging legislation toward formal debate and possible passage. Voting continued in the Democratic-held chamber.'' "This deal makes key investments to put people to work all across the country — in cities, small towns, rural communities, and across our coastlines and plains," President Joe Biden said in a statement. "The Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal is a blue-collar blueprint to rebuild America that will help make our historic economic recovery a historic long-term boom." Market implications This is positive for stocks and risk appetite in general, albeit priced in.  According to the White House, the bill's investments over the next five years are expected to add an average of around 2 million jobs per year. Funding of the bill is to be derived from a combination of redirecting unspent emergency relief funds, targeted corporate user fees, strengthening tax enforcement on cryptocurrencies, and other bipartisan measures. The expected revenue generated as a result of the bill's investments will be self-financing in itself. 

EUR/USD holds onto the bounce off resistance-turned-support around 1.1845 amid a quiet post-Fed Thursday morning in Asia. In addition to the successfu

EUR/USD seesaws around two-week top, keeps a 13-day-old trend line breakout.Firmer RSI, bullish MACD back the upside momentum towards the key SMA.Bears need a clear downside break of 1.1800 for re-entry.EUR/USD holds onto the bounce off resistance-turned-support around 1.1845 amid a quiet post-Fed Thursday morning in Asia. In addition to the successful break of the previous resistance line, bullish MACD and firmer RSI conditions also back the pair buyers to aim for a 200-SMA immediate hurdle, around 1.1870. However, the monthly high near the 1.1900 threshold may restrict the currency major pair’s further advances as the RSI line inches closer to the overbought conditions. Should the EUR/USD bulls remain dominant past 1.1900, the late June’s swing high near 1.1975 and the 1.2000 psychological magnet will be in the spotlight. Meanwhile, pullback moves remain less important until staying beyond the stated descending trend line from July 12, close to the 1.1800 round figure. Following that, the monthly low near 1.1750 and the yearly bottom surrounding 1.1700 should return to the chart. EUR/USD: Four-hour chart Trend: Further upside expected  

USD/JPY remains muted in the Asian session on Thursday. The movement in the US dollar keeps USD/JPY on the lower side. At the time of writing, USD/JPY

USD/JPY consolidates gains on Thursday in the initial trading session.Lower US Treasury yields undermine the demand for the US dollar.The yen remains unchanged after the BOJ summary of opinions suggests a longer accommodative monetary policy.USD/JPY remains muted in the Asian session on Thursday. The movement in the US dollar keeps USD/JPY on the lower side. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading at 109.92, up 0.01% for the day. The US 10-year benchmark yields anchored lower near 1.23% even after the Fed hinted that progress has been made toward conditions for tapering bond buys as the economy has improved. However, there were no timelines details were mentioned. The US dollar moved in tandem with the bonds yields and remained lower below the 92.50 mark. On the other hand, the Japanese yen held the ground on its safe haven appeal as investor’s risk appetite dampens on rising coronavirus infections. The Japanese yen remained on the backfoot after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut 2021’s GDP growth forecast for Japan to 2.8% from 3.3%. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) released the Summary of Opinions, which highlighted the risk of COVID-19 on the economy. The downward pressure on consumption is likely to accelerate due to the reinstatement of the state of emergency. As for now, investors wait for the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims to gauge the market sentiment. USD/JPY additional levels
 

“Australia’s central bank is likely to push back its planned taper of bond buying, just four weeks after announcing it, as prolonged lockdowns trigger

“Australia’s central bank is likely to push back its planned taper of bond buying, just four weeks after announcing it, as prolonged lockdowns triggered by the delta virus variant look set to send the national economy back into reverse,” per Bloomberg’s latest poll of 18 economists. Key quotes (from Bloomberg) Thirteen of 18 economists polled by Bloomberg expect the Reserve Bank will delay its planned reduction in weekly purchases to A$4 billion ($3 billion) from A$5 billion at Tuesday’s meeting. The taper is currently due to begin in September and be reviewed a couple of months after that. All but one economist expected gross domestic product would fall this quarter, with the New South Wales government now extending its harshest lockdown restrictions beyond southwest Sydney. Australia’s economy will shrink by 2.7% this quarter, Commonwealth Bank of Australia estimates, slightly higher than the 2.4% contraction forecast by Bloomberg Economics. Many of the respondents said the government is best placed to deliver the support needed for the economy to cope with the latest outbreak. AUD/USD edges higher The upbeat poll fails to support AUD/USD bulls, earlier benefited from the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) verdict, as the quote eases to 0.7370 by the press time of early Thursday morning in Asia, down 0.05% intraday. Read: AUD/USD pauses post Fed recovery below 0.7400, seeks fresh clues

After weeks of intense talks and multiple rejections, the US policymakers are confident of getting President Joe Biden backed infrastructure spending

After weeks of intense talks and multiple rejections, the US policymakers are confident of getting President Joe Biden backed infrastructure spending plan passed through the Senate. “Negotiators of roughly $1 trillion package are confident they have locked down enough Republican and Democratic support to advance bill later Wednesday,” said Wall Street Journal (WSJ). Following the news, Bloomberg’s Erik Wasson tweeted that Senator Bernie Sanders said he will have 50 votes for his budget resolution to start reconciliation next week. He will vote to start a debate on infrastructure. Market reaction The news helps S&P 500 Futures to reject the bears’ entry despite the downbeat closing on Wall Street. It should be noted, however, that the investors already forecasted the event and the same has multiple speed-breakers ahead, which in turn restricted the market reaction to the key news.

Having consolidated weekly gains the previous day, Wall Street closed mixed on Wednesday as Fed played smart amid Delta covid variant woes and price p

US equity benchmarks closed mixed despite post FOMC recovery.Fed defends easy-money policy, Powell plays smart despite hesitating to discuss taper.Facebook earnings beat estimates but warnings of significant growth slowdown weigh on FB, PayPal misses revenue forecasts.US Senators ready the procedural vote on infrastructure spending, US Q2 GDP eyed as well.Having consolidated weekly gains the previous day, Wall Street closed mixed on Wednesday as Fed played smart amid Delta covid variant woes and price pressure. Despite matching wide market forecasts of no monetary policy change, the US central bank praised economic transition from the pandemic. However, Chairman Jerome Powell nudged the market push for the tapering hints. Read: Forex Today: Dollar down as Fed is in no rush to taper It’s worth noting that the cautious sentiment over whether the US policymakers back the initial step to $1.2 trillion infrastructure spending also weighs on the market. Amid these plays, technology shares stayed on the front foot, helping Nasdaq to buck the weakness with 0.77% daily upside, by rising 102 points, to close around 14,702. Alternatively, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost 0.36% to 34,930 and S&P 500 barely budged before ending the North American session around 4,400. Facebook’s upbeat earnings couldn’t supersede the social-media company’s warning of a significant decline in Q3 and Q4 revenue growth on a sequential basis. Further, PayPal missed Q2 earnings and lowered Q3 guidance whereas Qualcomm benefited from strong results and the firm’s optimism for Q4. Additionally, McDonald's and Boeing were also ahead of the market expectations, as far as the latest earnings are concerned, but posted mixed closings. It should be noted that the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains heavy near the 12-day low and the US 10-year Treasury yields stay unchanged around 1.23% by the press time, portraying the market’s indecision. Looking forward, US policymakers’ initial reaction to the much-awaited stimulus and preliminary readings of US Q2 GDP will be the key to follow for broad directions.

AUD/USD edges higher around 0.7370 as the FOMC-led boost to the north stalls during early Thursday morning in Asia. The Aussie pair earlier benefited

AUD/USD fades the Fed-led bounce off weekly low.US dollar eased on Fed Chair Powell’s resistance to provide hints of tapering, covid woes in Australia challenge bulls.Traders also shrugged off Aussie CPI as RBA already watered-down policy changes.Australia Import-Export Price Index for Q2, US Q2 GDP will be the key data, risk catalysts are important too.AUD/USD edges higher around 0.7370 as the FOMC-led boost to the north stalls during early Thursday morning in Asia. The Aussie pair earlier benefited from the US dollar broad weakness on the Fed’s refrain from discussing taper but the coronavirus Delta variant fears at home and abroad tame the upside momentum of late. Also challenging the bulls could be sluggish equities and cautious sentiment as US policymakers hold procedural votes on President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending plan. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) matched wide marked expectations of announcing no monetary policy change, despite mentioning, “continuing economic improvement,” during the July meeting. The US central bank Chairman Jerome Powell played smart and pushed back the force to utter tapering details despite saying, "Economy has made progress toward goals since setting the bar for taper in December and will continue to assess progress in coming meetings." The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped to a 12-day low following the Fed outcome, printing a three-day fall, which in turn favored Antipodeans but couldn’t help Wall Street. Further, the US 10-year Treasury yields seesaws around 1.23% and marked no major reaction to the news. It’s worth noting that the AUD/USD prices paid a little heed to Australia Q2 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data earlier on Wednesday as they matched firmer forecasts. The reason could be linked to the covid concerns emanating mainly from New South Wales that marked a fresh high, unfortunately, of infections since March 2020, pushing PM Scott Morrison to announce an additional local relief package. Moving on, updates from the US Senate could offer immediate direction but Australia Import and Export Price Index data for the second quarter (Q2) will be the key during the Asian session. Following that, the preliminary readings of US Q2 GDP should be eyed for fresh impulse. Above all, sentiment-related headlines, mainly surrounding covid, stimulus and China, will be crucial as Fed and RBA both have recently disappointed markets. Read: US Q2 GDP Preview: Economy to continue to expand at strong pace, eyes on FOMC Technical analysis In addition to the repeated failures to cross the 0.7400 hurdle, a downward sloping trend line from June 11, near 0.7390, also restricts short-term AUD/USD upside. Hence, the bears are bracing for the yearly low surrounding 0.7290.  
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