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Forex News Timeline

Friday, September 20, 2019

The NZD/USD pair added to its recent losses and has moved well within the striking distance of multi-year lows, set earlier this September. The pair e

The pair remains under some heavy selling pressure for the third straight day.Trade pessimism/cautious mood further collaborated to the pair’s weaker tone.The ongoing slide seemed rather unaffected by some renewed USD selling bias.The NZD/USD pair added to its recent losses and has moved well within the striking distance of multi-year lows, set earlier this September.
 
The pair extended its recent sharp pullback from mid-0.6800s, or near one-month tops, and remained under some heavy selling pressure for the third consecutive session on Friday - also marking its seventh day of fall in the previous eight. Trade pessimism offset weaker USD The market reaction to Thursday's upbeat release of New-Zealand second-quarter GDP growth figures turned out to be rather short-lived, with renewed trade pessimism exerting some follow-through downward pressure on the Kiwi.
 
The overnight contradicting statement by two White House advisers, followed by China’s warning to the US for its intervention in the Hong Kong issue raised doubts over any breakthrough from the upcoming talks in early-October.
 
This coupled with the prevalent cautious mood, amid a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, further collaborated towards driving flows away from perceived riskier currencies - like the New-Zealand Dollar.
 
Meanwhile, the ongoing downward trajectory seemed rather unaffected by some renewed selling bias around the US Dollar, which remained on the defensive on the back of sliding US Treasury bond yields and despite a hawkish rate cut by the Fed.
 
It will now be interesting to see if the pair is able to attract any buying interest at lower levels or the ongoing downfall marks the resumption of the prior/well-established bearish trend amid absent market-moving economic releases from the US.
 
Later during the US session, a scheduled speech by Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren might influence the USD price dynamics and contribute towards providing some impetus on the last trading day of the week. Technical levels to watch  

WTI (futures on Nymex) extends its consolidative mode into a third straight day on Friday, as the prices continue to gyrate around 58.60 levels. Despi

WTI supported by rife Mid-East tensions, but awaits fresh impetus.Geopolitical and trade developments to dominate amid US Rigs Count data. WTI (futures on Nymex) extends its consolidative mode into a third straight day on Friday, as the prices continue to gyrate around 58.60 levels. Despite the side-trend, the black gold remains on track to book over 7% weekly gain. Upside appears more compelling after Saudi attacks The barrel of WTI holds onto the overnight gains after Saudi state media reported that Saudi-led coalition launches military operation in Yemen, in response to last Saturday’s Houthi attack on the Kingdom’s oil facilities that knocked-out 5% of the global supplies.However, the bulls lack follow-through amid receding fears over Saudi supply disruption after Saudi Aramco Executive said that “we are confident of returning to full production by the end of September”. Moreover, cautious risk sentiment also keeps the bulls on the edge, as markets eagerly await clarity on the US-China trade front, with the trade negotiations restarted on Thursday. Also, markets take it easy after a busy central banks’ heavy week, leaving the rates largely in the familiar ranges below 59.50 levels. All eyes now remain on the Baker Hughes US Rigs Count data and Mid-East developments for the next push higher in oil. WTI Levels to watch  

EUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.1054 Today Daily Change 28 Today Daily Change % 0.08 Today daily open 1.1045 Trends Daily SMA20 1.1045 Daily SMA5

EUR/USD keeps navigating the familiar range around the 1.1050 region today.Ideally, the pair needs to break above the short-term resistance line at 1.1080 and recent tops beyond 1.1100 the figure to allow for the continuation of the bull run and a potential test of the 55-day SMA at 1.1121.A clear of this region on a sustainable note should alleviate the downside pressure somewhat and refocus the trade to late August peak at 1.1163 ahead of the 100-day SMA at 1.1175.EUR/USD daily chart  

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, USD/JPY needs to clear the 108.50 area in order to attempt a move to 108.85 in the near term. Key Quotes 24

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, USD/JPY needs to clear the 108.50 area in order to attempt a move to 108.85 in the near term. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “The strong 108.50 resistance remains untouched as USD staged a surprisingly rapid retreat from a high of 108.46. The recent strong upward pressure has waned and the current movement is viewed as part of consolidation phase. In other words, USD is expected to trade sideways for today, likely within a 107.80/108.40 range”. Next 1-3 weeks: “USD touched 108.47 yesterday, just a few pips below the 108.50 level that was first highlighted last Thursday (12 Sep, spot at 107.95) before ending the day on a firm note at 108.44 (+0.29%). We highlighted yesterday (18 Sep, spot at 108.10), “the combination of overbought conditions and waning momentum suggests that USD could be close to making a short-term top” and added, “in order to revive the flagging momentum, it has to move and stay above 108.30 by end of today (18 Sep)”. The firm daily closing suggests a break of 108.50 would not be surprising and the focus would then shift to 108.85. On the downside, a break of 107.50 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would suggest USD is not ready to tackle 108.85 just yet”.

The USD/CAD pair held steady above mid-1.3200s through the early European session on Friday and remained well within a broader trading range held over

Trade pessimism weighed on commodity-linked currencies and helped gain some traction.The uptick seemed rather unaffected by bullish Oil prices and weaker USD price action.Investors look forward to Canadian monthly retail sales data for some meaningful impetus.The USD/CAD pair held steady above mid-1.3200s through the early European session on Friday and remained well within a broader trading range held over the past four trading sessions.
 
Following the previous session's intraday rejection slide from the very important 200-day SMA barrier, just above the 1.3300 handle, the pair managed to regain some positive traction on the last trading week. Bulls seemed unaffected by a modest pickup in Crude Oil prices and weaker US Dollar rather took cues from fading optimism over the resumption of the US-China trade talks. Bulls shrug off positive Oil prices Oil prices held stronger amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially after the Saudi-led coalition launched a military operation in Yemen's port city of Hodeidah. This comes in retaliation to the last weekend attack on a key Saudi Arabian supply hub, which knocked out 5% of the global oil supply. However, the commodity-linked currency - Loonie failed to benefit from rising oil prices.
 
Bulls even shrugged off the prevalent selling bias surrounding the US Dollar, which remained on the defensive on the back of fresh weakness in the US Treasury bond yields and despite the Fed's hawkish rate cut on Wednesday.
 
On the trade-related front, contradicting comments by two White House advisers, followed by China’s warning to the US for its intervention in the Hong Kong issue raised doubts over any breakthrough from the upcoming talks between the world’s two largest economies in early-October and weighed on commodity-linked currencies - including the Canadian Dollar.
 
Moving ahead, Friday's economic docket highlights the release of Canadian monthly retail sales data, which will further influence the domestic currency and produce some short-term trading opportunities during the early North-American session. Later in the day, a scheduled speech by Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren might further contribute towards providing some impetus on the last trading day of the week. Technical levels to watch  

Dollar Index Spot Overview Today last price 98.28 Today Daily Change 22 Today Daily Change % -0.09 Today daily open 98.37 Trends Daily SMA20 98.41 Da

DXY is struggling to resume the upside so far this week, falling within the familiar range around 98.40.The immediate bullish view stays unaltered for the time being while above the recent low at 97.86 and the key 55-day SMA at 97.91. This area of contention is also reinforced the the Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 drop at 97.87.If the Greenback manages to regain upside traction it could attempt a test of last week’s peak at 99.10.DXY daily chart  

EUR/JPY Overview Today last price 119.24 Today Daily Change 20 Today Daily Change % -0.03 Today daily open 119.28 Trends Daily SMA20 118.18 Daily SMA

EUR/JPY is flirting with the 5-month resistance line in the 119.40 region, still unable to break above it on a sustainable note.A clear breakout of this area should mitigate some downside pressure and motivate the cross to attempt a test of the psychological 120.00 handle and then the 100-day SMA at 120.63.The continuation of the up move could extend to late July peaks in the 121.40 area.EUR/JPY daily chart  

Chinese Energy Administration said in its latest statement released on Friday that China can import a large amount of oil and gas from the US if there

Chinese Energy Administration said in its latest statement released on Friday that China can import a large amount of oil and gas from the US if there is no trade war.   More to come... 

An executive at the Saudi Arabian state oil giant, Aramco, said that “we are confident of returning to full production by the end of September”, per R

An executive at the Saudi Arabian state oil giant, Aramco, said that “we are confident of returning to full production by the end of September”, per Reuters.

AUD/USD could extend the correction lower to the mid-0.6700s, according to FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “While we held the vi

AUD/USD could extend the correction lower to the mid-0.6700s, according to FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “While we held the view that AUD could weaken yesterday, the rapid pace of decline that sent it tumbling to a low of 0.6780 was not exactly expected. The decline is running too fast, too soon and further sustained weakness is not expected for today. AUD is more likely to consolidate its loss and trade sideways at these lower levels, expected to be between 0.6780 and 0.6820”. Next 1-3 weeks: “While we indicated yesterday (19 Sep, spot at 0.6820) that a “short-term top is in place”, we expected AUD to trade sideways to ‘slightly lower’. However, AUD closed sharply lower for the second straight day (AUD lost -0.56% on top of -0.54% on Wed, for a two-day loss of - 1.10%, the largest two-day decline since late April). In other words, the ‘solid support’ at 0.6755 that we highlighted yesterday may not hold. To look at it another way, from here we expect AUD to trade with a downward bias towards 0.6755. If there is a clear break 0.6755, the risk of a test of 0.6700 would increase considerably. On the upside, only a move above 0.6850 would indicate the current downward pressure has eased”.

The USD/CHF pair reversed a knee-jerk drop and quickly recovered around 20-25 pips in the last hour, albeit lacked any strong follow-through. The pair

The SNB’s decision to maintain status-quo prompted some long-unwinding on Thursday.Sliding US bond yields held the USD bulls on the defensive and added to the selling bias.Cautions mood benefitted the CHF’s safe-haven status and exerted additional pressure.The USD/CHF pair reversed a knee-jerk drop and quickly recovered around 20-25 pips in the last hour, albeit lacked any strong follow-through.
 
The pair remained under some selling pressure for the second consecutive session on Friday and was seen extended the overnight pullback from three-month tops. The fact that the SNB refrained from following the ECB and the Fed by not cutting rates provided a goodish lift to the Swiss Franc (CHF) and prompted some long-unwinding trade on Thursday. Cautious mood/weaker USD exert some pressure The CHF further benefitted from reviving safe-haven demand amid fears of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This coupled with renewed US Dollar selling bias, undermined by weaker US Treasury bond yields and despite a hawkish rate cut by the Fed, exerted some follow-through selling on the last trading day of the week.
 
Despite the pullback, the pair has still managed to hold its neck above the weekly bearish gap opening lows, suggesting some dip-buying interest at lower levels on the back of the recent encouraging trade-related developments. Hence, the key focus will be on the lower-level trade talks, which will lay the groundwork for high-level discussions in early-October.
 
Meanwhile, absent relevant market moving economic releases from the US leaves the pair at the mercy of broader market risk sentiment and the USD price dynamics. Later during the US trading session, a scheduled speech by Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren will be looked upon for some short-term trading opportunities on the last day of the week. Technical levels to watch  

According to analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), Friday's announcement by the Indian government to cut the corporate tax rates

According to analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), Friday's announcement by the Indian government to cut the corporate tax rates for local companies is a fiscal push, which will effectively translate into a revenue loss of 0.7% of GDP, with risks to the upside. Key Quotes: “The direct impact of today’s move on propping up growth remains uncertain. It is important to bear in mind that India’s growth problems reflect a combination of weak demand and a constrained financial sector. We would accordingly, have favoured an expenditure-based stimulus that directly augments demand.”
 
“In aggregate, both monetary and fiscal levers are now being deployed to support growth. And yet, a solid growth response is still not assured. Against this backdrop as well as the possibility of lower inflation should corporates pass on the tax benefits to consumers, we see little impact of today’s action on monetary policy, and continue to expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut the policy repo rate by 40bps on 4 October.”

Hong Kong SAR Consumer Price Index registered at 3.5% above expectations (2.5%) in August

Greece Current Account (YoY) up to €1.28B in July from previous €0.874B

According to Louis Boisset - an analyst at BNP Paribas - the current economic slowdown in the eurozone fits within a more global slowdown that can be

According to Louis Boisset - an analyst at BNP Paribas - the current economic slowdown in the eurozone fits within a more global slowdown that can be seen in both the advanced economies and in the emerging markets. After a robust year in 2017, GDP growth in the eurozone seems to have weakened. Key Quotes: “Structurally, activity in the manufacturing sector is more sensitive to shocks, especially external ones. However, the current situation seems to be rather unprecedented with regards to the eurozone’s short history. For several months, manufacturing PMI is particularly weak compared to the high score reported by the services sector.”
 
“With the exception of the great financial crisis, this has been the widest gap ever reported since the euro’s creation. This observation is especially true for the German economy, which has a bigger manufacturing sector and higher openness than its trade partners.”
 
“The absence of a rebound in world trade, confirmation of China’s economic slowdown and uncertainty generated by trade tensions and Brexit negotiations are straining external demand and the manufacturing sector in particular. In fact, manufacturing products still account for about 80% of global exports.”
 
“How long can this situation last? How long can activity in the services sector resist the troubles in the manufacturing sector? The key lies in the dynamics of domestic demand, and household consumption in particular. Consequently, we should keep a close eye on the job market situation in the short term.”

The down move in EUR/GBP appears to have met strong contention in the 0.8800 neighbourhood for the time being, noted Senior FICC Technical Analyst at

The down move in EUR/GBP appears to have met strong contention in the 0.8800 neighbourhood for the time being, noted Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank Axel Rudolph. Key Quotes “EUR/GBP finally slipped through the 200 day moving average at .8794 as expected with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the May-to-August advance at .8794 currently being tested. For now it seems to hold, though. Below it lies the May 27 low at .8769”. “Minor resistance above the .8891 July low and the .9016 September 9 high can be seen between the mid-July high and the 55 day moving average at .9043/52. Further resistance comes in at the .9149 current September high”. “Still further up sits the August peak at .9327”.

Gold edged higher for the second consecutive session on Friday, albeit remained well within a familiar trading range held over the past two weeks or s

Weaker US bond yields weighed on the USD and helped regain some traction.Cautious mood benefited traditional safe-haven assets and remained supportive.US-China trade optimism seemed to be the only factor capping any strong gains.Gold edged higher for the second consecutive session on Friday, albeit remained well within a familiar trading range held over the past two weeks or so.
 
The precious metal extended its recovery move from the post-FOMC swing losses to over one-month lows and continued gaining some follow-through traction on Friday amid a combination of supporting factors. Weaker US bond yields/USD extend some support Given the uncertainty over the next move by the Fed, some renewed weakness in the US Treasury bond yields kept the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and extended some support to the non-yielding yellow metal.
 
This coupled with the prevalent cautious mood, which tends to benefit traditional safe-haven assets, provided an additional boost to Gold and remained supportive of the move back above the key $1500 psychological mark.
 
Despite the uptick, bulls lacked any strong conviction amid the recent optimism over the resumption of the US-China trade talks. Hence, the incoming trade-related headlines might continue to influence the price action.
 
Investors now look forward to the lower-level trade talks between the US and China in Washington, which will lay the groundwork for high-level discussions in early-October and eventually provide some meaningful impetus.
 
This coupled with a scheduled speech by Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren - later during the US session - might further assist investors to grab some short-term trading opportunities on the last day of the week.
 
From a technical perspective, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained breakthrough the recent trading range before placing any aggressive directional bets amid absent relevant market moving economic releases from the US. Technical levels to watch  

We have moved a long way in seven weeks. I am confident we can get a deal, get it through parliament and leave on October 31. The EU have shown consid

We have moved a long way in seven weeks. I am confident we can get a deal, get it through parliament and leave on October 31. The EU have shown considerable movement on the withdrawal agreement.

According to FX Strategists at UOB Group, Cable risks some consolidation or even a move lower if it cannot clear the 1/2580 region in the short-term h

According to FX Strategists at UOB Group, Cable risks some consolidation or even a move lower if it cannot clear the 1/2580 region in the short-term horizon. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “GBP traded mostly sideways but surged suddenly to a 2-1/2 month high of 1.2560 during NY hours (on the back of Brexit headlines). The sudden surge appears to be running ahead of itself and further sustained advance is not expected for today. However, GBP could retest 1.2560 but a clear break of this level is unlikely (there is another strong resistance at 1.2580). Support is at 1.2490 but the more significant support is closer to 1.2460”. Next 1-3 weeks: “The sudden surge in GBP yesterday sent it soaring to 1.2560, within sight of the 1.2580 level that we first indicated on Monday (16 Sep, spot at 1.2495). While we continue to see chance for GBP to test 1.2580, the recovery phase that started about 2 weeks ago (05 Sep, spot at 1.2245) is deep in overbought territory now. In other words, the prospect for a clear break of 1.2580 is not that high. In order to ‘overcome’ the current overbought conditions, GBP has to ‘punch’ through 1.2580. Otherwise, if GBP were to ‘hang around’ these elevated levels, the risk of a short-term top would increase quickly. On the downside, the ‘strong support’ level has moved markedly higher to 1.2430 from 1.2350 previously. A break 1.2430 would indicate that the recovery phase has run its course. Looking ahead, if GBP were to ‘punch’ above 1.2580, it could potentially lead to a ‘rapid rise’ as the next significant resistance is at 1.2780”.

Reuters reports that the officials from Japan’s Finance Ministry, Financial Services Agency (FSA), Bank of Japan (BOJ) met from 0630-0700 GMT, as cite

Reuters reports that the officials from Japan’s Finance Ministry, Financial Services Agency (FSA), Bank of Japan (BOJ) met from 0630-0700 GMT, as cited by the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF). The officials cited that the meeting was arranged to discuss the markets. It appears that the meeting could be held to discuss the impact of Thursday’s Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policy on the Yen markets. Meanwhile, at the time of writing, USD/JPY bounces-off daily lows at 107.78, still remains below the 108 handle.

CME Group’s advanced figures for JPY futures markets noted open interest shrunk for the third session in a row on Thursday. On the other hand, volume

CME Group’s advanced figures for JPY futures markets noted open interest shrunk for the third session in a row on Thursday. On the other hand, volume clinched the second consecutive build, now by around 28.3K contracts. USD/JPY upside halted around 108.50USD/JPY is seen some correction lower after being rejected from recent tops in the mid-108.00s. Furthermore, the leg lower was accompanied by shrinking open interest and increasing volume. That said, while the pair might have entered into a consolidative theme in the near term, a move further south is not ruled out for the time being.

The People's Bank of China has cut the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) by five basis points to 4.2%. Here's what Iris Pang - Greater China Economist at

The People's Bank of China has cut the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) by five basis points to 4.2%. Here's what Iris Pang - Greater China Economist at ING - thinks this move means for the yuan. Additional Quotes: “We think that the move was a result of the very weak August activity data, especially fixed asset investments and industrial production. Another cut is expected in October unless we see a very encouraging outcome from the trade talks, which is unlikely. We don't expect this cut to move the yuan.” “A rate cut doesn't necessarily mean a weaker yuan. There is very little arbitrage opportunity given that China's capital account is not fully open. Put simply, the theory that lower interest rates weaken the currency doesn't apply in China.” “USD/CNY peaked at 7.1054 on Thursday then closed at 7.0965. After the rate cut today, the USD/CNY moved to 7.0903. That is, the yuan actually strengthened rather than weakened.” “We expect a weaker yuan if the trade talks go poorly. Our USD/CNY forecast is 7.20 by the end of 2019.”
 

The positive bias in USD/CHF is expected to stay unchanged while above the 0.9855 level, suggested Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Comm

The positive bias in USD/CHF is expected to stay unchanged while above the 0.9855 level, suggested Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank. Key Quotes “USD/CHF has reached the August peak at .9975 and made its current September high at .9984 before coming off again. Above these levels sits the mid-June high at 1.0014”. “Immediate upside pressure will be maintained while the cross remains above the .9855 September 13 low”. “Below it sit the .9659 August low and the September 2018 low at .9543. Only failure at the next lower .9799 current September low would push key support at .9716/.9659 to the fore. It is the location of the January, June, mid- and late August lows”.

Open interest in GBP futures markets shrunk for yet another session in Thursday, this time by around 3.8K contracts according to flash data from CME G

Open interest in GBP futures markets shrunk for yet another session in Thursday, this time by around 3.8K contracts according to flash data from CME Group. In addition, volume reversed five consecutive daily drops and increased by nearly 19.6K contracts. GBP/USD boosted by short covering The sharp recovery in Cable looks sustained by ‘short-covering’ in light of positive price action and diminishing open interest. That said, further upside, while not ruled out in the near tern, should start to lose momentum in the next sessions.

The AUD/USD pair built on its goodish intraday bounce and is currently placed at the top end of its daily trading range, just above the 0.6800 handle.

The prevalent USD selling bias helped ease the bearish pressure, gain some traction.Short-covering fueled the recovery move ahead of lower-level US-China trade talks.The AUD/USD pair built on its goodish intraday bounce and is currently placed at the top end of its daily trading range, just above the 0.6800 handle.
 
The pair extended its recent rejection slide from the 0.6900 neighbourhood and refreshed two-week points amid rising odds that the Reserve bank of Australia might cut interest rates again in October, albeit once again managed to find some support near the 0.6780-75 congestion zone. Weaker USD helped bounce off lows The prevailing selling bias around the US Dollar - weighed down by weaker US Treasury bond yields and despite Wednesday's hawkish rate cut by the Fed - helped ease the bearish pressure and turned out to be one of the key factors behind the pair's intraday rebound of around 30 pips.
 
Friday's recovery could further be attributed some short-covering move as investors look forward to the lower-level trade talks between the US and China in Washington, which will lay the groundwork for high-level discussions in early-October and eventually influence the China-proxy Australian Dollar.
 
In absence of any major market-moving economic releases from the US, traders on Friday are likely to take some cues from a scheduled speech by Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren in order to grab some short-term opportunities on the last day of the week. Technical levels to watch  

FX Strategists at UOB Group expect EUR/USD to extend the ongoing sideline trading in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Instead of “drifting lo

FX Strategists at UOB Group expect EUR/USD to extend the ongoing sideline trading in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Instead of “drifting lower”, EUR traded in a quiet manner and registered an ‘inside day’. Momentum indicators are most ‘neutral’ which suggest EUR could continue to trade sideways for now. Expected range for today, 1.1015/1.1075”. Next 1-3 weeks: “EUR traded in a quiet manner and ended the day little changed at 1.1040 (+0.09%). The price action offers no fresh clues and for now, our view from one week ago (13 Sep, spot at 1.1055) wherein EUR is expected “trade sideways” still stands. From here, EUR could continue to trade within the broad 1.0925/1.1130 range for a while more. Looking forward, EUR has to register a NY close out of the expected range before a more sustained directional price action can be expected”.

Ireland's Coveney: We are still waiting for serious proposals from the UK

Ireland's Coveney: We are still waiting for serious proposals from the UK

The US reportedly won't scrap auto tariffs in trade deal with Japan. more to come ..

The US reportedly won't scrap auto tariffs in trade deal with Japan.   more to come ..

A Chinese industry official recently crossed the wires, via Reuters, saying that the Chinese industry operations are facing downward pressure. In a bi

A Chinese industry official recently crossed the wires, via Reuters, saying that the Chinese industry operations are facing downward pressure. In a bid to boost investments and spur economic growth, China cut its new one-year benchmark lending rate for the second month in a row on Friday. The Chinese Yuan strengthened in tandem with other Asian currencies such as the Yen and Indian Rupee, with USD/CNY currently trading at 7.0850, down -0.15% on the day. PBOC lowers one-year lending rate to 4.20% vs. 4.25% previous

Turkey Consumer Confidence declined to 55.8 in September from previous 58.3

The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) analysts express their thoughts on the Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy decision announced on T

The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) analysts express their thoughts on the Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy decision announced on Thursday. Key Quotes: “The BoE left interest rates unchanged, but noted that if Brexit uncertainty continued, this would likely dampen the domestically generated inflation pressures. The BoE might be late to the party, but it was dovish, cautious about growth and starting to lay the framework for future rate cuts. Sterling was unmoved, but leapt later when EC President Juncker expressed optimism about a Brexit deal, saying he wasn’t wedded to the Irish backstop as long as its objectives were met.”

The USD/JPY pair remained under some selling pressure for the second consecutive session on Friday and added to the previous session post-BoJ losses.

The BoJ decision to stand pat prompted some long-unwinding trade on Thursday.Bears further take cues from reviving safe-haven demand and fresh USD weakness.The USD/JPY pair remained under some selling pressure for the second consecutive session on Friday and added to the previous session post-BoJ losses.
 
The fact that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) refrained from following the ECB and the Fed by not cutting rates turned out to be one of the key factors that provided a goodish lift to the Japanese Yen and prompted some long-unwinding trade on Thursday. On the other hand, the US Dollar failed to capitalize on its post-FOMC positive move and further collaborated to the pair's overnight modest pullback from multi-week tops. Weighed down by reviving safe-haven demand Despite the hawkish rate cut by the Fed, the US Treasury bond yields were back under pressure and turned out to be one of the key factors weighing on the greenback. This coupled with the prevailing cautions mood, amid fears of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, further benefitted the Japanese Yen's relative safe-haven status and exerted some follow-through pressure on the major.
 
On the trade-related front, a Chinese delegation is reported to visit American farms next week and lay the groundwork for high-level discussions in early-October. Hence, any incoming trade-related headlines might influence the broader market risk sentiment and produce some meaningful trading opportunities on the last trading day of the week amid absent relevant market-moving economic releases from the US. Technical levels to watch  

Reuters quotes Japanese sources familiar with the matter, as saying that Tokyo wants the US to give it in writing that it will not impose hefty tariff

Reuters quotes Japanese sources familiar with the matter, as saying that Tokyo wants the US to give it in writing that it will not impose hefty tariffs on its auto exports when the US President Trump and Japanese PM Shinzo Abe meet to reach a deal on farm goods and digital trade next week. A source familiar with the Japanese government’s stance said: “It’s not fixed but we need a clear, objective guarantee,”  Several sources familiar with the matter said the assurance could come in a separate document from the new accord and might be in line with a vague pledge in a joint statement issued last September when the two sides agreed to start trade talks. Japan’s Motegi: Wants confirmation that no additional auto tariffs will be imposed in US trade talks The above piece of news has negligible impact on the Yen, as USD/JPY keeps its range trade intact below 108.00 amid mixed US-China trade signals and upbeat Japanese CPI data.

EUR/USD has been remarkably stable amid the Federal Reserve's rate cut and drama in oil markets. How is it positioned as the week draws to a close? Th

EUR/USD has been remarkably stable amid the Federal Reserve's rate cut and drama in oil markets. How is it positioned as the week draws to a close?  The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that EUR/USD has support at 1.1045, which is the convergence of the Fibonacci 38.2% one-week, the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day, the Simple Moving Average 100-1h, the SMA 200-1h, the Bollinger Band 4h-Middle, and the BB one-day Middle.  If it falls below this level, the world's most popular currency pair has only weak support. The next noteworthy level is 1.0965, which is the confluence of the BB 1d-Lower, the Pivot Point one-week Support 1, and the PP 1d-S3. Looking up, fierce resistance awaits at 1.1074. The dense cluster includes the BB 1h-Upper, the PP 1d-R1, the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month, the previous daily high, and the Fibonacci 23.6% one-week.  Also here, if EUR/USD breaks free to the upside, it has room to run. However, the resistance line is stronger than support.  An upside move could target 1.1143, which is the meeting point of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-month and the PP 1w-R1.  Here is how it looks on the tool: Confluence Detector The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. This tool assigns a certain amount of “weight” to each indicator, and this “weight” can influence adjacents price levels. These weightings mean that one price level without any indicator or moving average but under the influence of two “strongly weighted” levels accumulate more resistance than their neighbors. In these cases, the tool signals resistance in apparently empty areas. Learn more about Technical Confluence

Analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) offer a sneak peek at what to expect from next Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ

Analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) offer a sneak peek at what to expect from next Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy decision.   Key Quotes: “We expect the RBNZ will leave the OCR on hold at 1.00% next Wednesday, but leave the door open to further cuts. The Bank will most likely want to let the dust settle a little following August’s surprise 50bp move, but with this pre-emptive Committee nothing is certain. We continue to forecast three more 25bp cuts (in November, February and May).”

The optimism around the single currency stays well and sound at the end of the week, with EUR/USD navigating in the 1.1050/60 band ahead of the openin

EUR/USD adds to Thursday’s gains in the 1.1050/60 band.Risk appetite trends appear mixed on Friday.German Producer Prices surprised to the downside in August.The optimism around the single currency stays well and sound at the end of the week, with EUR/USD navigating in the 1.1050/60 band ahead of the opening bell in Euroland. EUR/USD now looks to trade The pair is advancing for the second session in a row on Friday as market participants continue to digest the recent FOMC event and refocus the attention on the US-China trade front. In fact, negotiators from both parties are expected to meet again today ahead of the high-level talks at some point in early October. In the meantime, yields of the key German 10-year reference appear to have met some strong resistance around the -0.45% area, while yields of the US-10 year note are extending the correction lower following tops near 1.90%. The move in yields has reduced the US-GE spread differential to the vicinity of 225 pts, supporting the recovery in spot as well. In the docket, German Producer Prices contracted 0.5% inter-month during August and rose 0.3% from a year earlier, both prints coming in below expectations. What to look for around EUR The single currency is extending the choppy trading so far this week in the wake of the key FOMC gathering on Wednesday. EUR lost some shine following the recent peaks beyond 1.11 the figure, recorded after the ECB announced €20 billion/month in bond purchases under the re-launched QE programme. The occasional recovery in spot, however, is seen as corrective only always against the backdrop of unremitting slowdown in the region, looser for longer monetary conditions by the ECB and the likelihood that the German economy could slip into technical recession in Q3. Adding to this gloomy scenario, potential US tariffs on imports of EU cars remain well on the table, while persistent uncertainty around Brexit adds to the downbeat outlook. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.14% at 1.1056 and faces the initial hurdle at 1.1109 (monthly high Sep.13) seconded by 1.1163 (high Aug.26) and finally 1.1175 (100-day SMA). On the flip side, a break below 1.0990 (low Sep.16) would target 1.0925 (2019 low Sep.3) en route to 1.0839 (monthly low May 11 2017).

Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (-0.2%) in August: Actual (-0.5%)

Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 0.3% below forecasts (0.6%) in August

Overbought conditions of 14-bar relative strength index (RSI) creates doubts on the GBP/USD’s further advances as it trades near 1.2555 during early Friday.

GBP/USD trades at the two-month top, inside a one-week-old rising trend-channel.Overbought RSI might trigger pair’s pullback to channel support.Overbought conditions of 14-bar relative strength index (RSI) creates doubts on the GBP/USD’s further advances as it trades near 1.2555 ahead of the UK open on Friday. While looking at the last week's movement, the pair forms rising channel pattern, which in turn favors the pair’s gradual upside. However, contrasting RSI signal could trigger a pullback towards the channel support figure of 1.2460, with 1.2500 being immediate support. Should sellers fetch the quote below 1.2460, 1.2385/80 horizontal-area including last week's top and current week’s bottom will be in the spotlight. On the upside, multiple highs marked in May month close to 1.2585/80 and 1.2600 can question buyers ahead of taming them with the channel resistance figure of 1.2655. GBP/USD 4-hour chart Trend: pullback expected  

Denmark Consumer Confidence: 4.3 (September) vs previous 6.3

Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.3%, above forecasts (-0.2%) in August

Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at -0.5%, below expectations (0.6%) in August

Here is what you need to know on Friday, September 20: GBP/USD has soared to a two-month high after European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker

Here is what you need to know on Friday, September 20: GBP/USD has soared to a two-month high after European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker expressed hope of reaching a deal by the October 31 deadline. He also suggested the Irish backstop might not be needed. The Bank of England left its policy unchanged as expected. Trade: Contradicting accounts by two White House advisers about US-Sino talks have kept markets in balance. Larry Kudlow said that talks have seen some "softening" while Michael Pillsbury said that President Donald Trump may slap new tariffs if no progress is made. US data released on Thursday was decidedly positive. Existing Home Sales, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and weekly Jobless Claims all beat expectations. John Williams, President of the New York branch of the Federal Reserve, Eric Rosengren of the Boston Fed speak later today. They may both comment on Wednesday's decision to cut interest rates but signal no further cuts. Rosengren voted against the move. Oil prices have remained stable despite Iranian warnings to go out on an "all-out war" if attacked. The Canadian dollar has been unchanged as well. Canadian retail sales are due out later in the day. Bitcoin has settled above $10,000 once again while Altcoins have consolidated their gains.
 

Analysts at Danske Bank enlist the key economic events of note due later in the day ahead. Key Quotes: “Following a busy central bank week, today is v

Analysts at Danske Bank enlist the key economic events of note due later in the day ahead. Key Quotes: “Following a busy central bank week, today is very thin on scheduled events and economic data.  Focus is on the developments in the Iran-Saudi crisis. US Secretary of Defence Mike Pompeo has been in Saudi Arabia to discuss a response to the attack on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities. Any signals coming out of the lower-level trade talks between the US and China in Washington should also be on the watch list today. Yesterday was the final day of the Supreme Court hearings on UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's suspension of the Parliament. However, no time has been given for a ruling. This afternoon consumer confidence for the euro area is released. It should give more clues to the extent of any spill-over from the weak manufacturing sector to consumers. Today the German government is expected to decide on the concrete measures in its climate package, with some media putting the total cost as high as EUR37bn.”

In light of preliminary figures for EUR futures markets from CME Group, investors scaled back their open interest positions for the second session in

In light of preliminary figures for EUR futures markets from CME Group, investors scaled back their open interest positions for the second session in a row, this time by around 15.3K contracts. In the same direction, volume went down by around 10.3K contracts, reaching the second straight drop. EUR/USD still capped by 1.1100 The gradual recovery in EUR/USD was in tandem with declining open interest and volume, showing some absence of conviction to extend the move further up. That said, the 1.1100 neighbourhood is still seen as a strong resistance in the near term.

In the view of the analysts at TD Securities, the Canadian Retail Sales are expected to increase in July. The data will be reported later today at 123

In the view of the analysts at TD Securities, the Canadian Retail Sales are expected to increase in July. The data will be reported later today at 1230 GMT. Key Quotes: “CAD Retail sales are expected to post a 0.9% increase in July, helped by stronger auto sales and higher prices for consumer goods. The latter should translate into a more moderate increase in real retail sales although the report should still provide a strong signal for Q3 consumption after a disappointing performance from the Canadian consumer in Q2.”

Given the failure to rise past-0.9980/85 area, USD/CHF carries the previous day’s declines while trading around 0.9913 ahead of the Europe markets on Friday.

USD/CHF extends Thursday’s downpour, nears short-term key supports.An upside break of 0.9985 could recall June month highs.Given the failure to rise past-0.9980/85 area, USD/CHF carries the previous day’s declines while trading around 0.9913 ahead of the Europe markets open on Friday. The bearish signal from 12-bar moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) indicates brighter chances of pair’s further declines to 100-bar moving average on the four-hour chart, at 0.9900 now, followed by a two-week-old rising trend-line near 0.9890. Should sellers refrain from respecting immediate support-line, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of August-September upside, at 0.9860, and a month-long ascending trend-line close to 0.9835 will be on the bears’ radar. Alternatively, 0.9950 and 0.9980/85 holds the key to pair’s rally towards early-June tops surrounding 1.0020, adjacent to mid-May bottoms nearing 1.0050. USD/CHF 4-hour chart Trend: pullback expected  

FX option expiries for Sept 20 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0900 554m 1.0925 1.3bn 1.0950 940m

FX option expiries for Sept 20 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts  1.0900 554m  1.0925 1.3bn  1.0950 940m  1.1000 2.6bn  1.1020 511m  1.1050 1.1bn  1.1100 1.8bn  1.1185 734m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts  1.2400 574m  1.2450 275m - USD/JPY: USD amounts  107.25 1.2bn  107.50 928m  108.00 1.1bn  109.25 463m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6775 592m - USD/CAD: USD amounts  1.3400 782m

Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, noted the pair could still test the 1.1083/1.1110 band while above recent lows at 1.0990.

Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, noted the pair could still test the 1.1083/1.1110 band while above recent lows at 1.0990. Key Quotes “EUR/USD still targets the April and May lows as well as the three month resistance line at 1.1083/1.1110, having bounced off the September 17 low at 1.0990”.   “Only a daily chart close above the August 26 high at 1.1164 would confirm a bottoming formation and put the 200 day ma at 1.1253 back on the cards”. “Support below the recent lows at 1.0927/26 comes in at the June 2016 low and the March 2017 high at 1.0912/07”.

Senior Economist Alview Liew and Head of Markets Strategy Heng Koon How at UOB Group assessed the recent FOMC event. Key Quotes “The FOMC, as widely e

Senior Economist Alview Liew and Head of Markets Strategy Heng Koon How at UOB Group assessed the recent FOMC event. Key Quotes “The FOMC, as widely expected, cut its policy Fed Funds Target Rate (FFTR) by 25bp to a range of 1.75-2.00% in its Sep meeting, but it was not a unanimous decision as there were three dissenters: Boston Fed President, Eric Rosengren and Kansas Fed President, Esther George dissented for the second consecutive meeting because they wanted to keep rates unchanged. In contrast, St Louis Fed President Bullard dissented because he wanted to cut FFTR by 50bps instead of 25bps”. “But the split within the ranks of the Fed Reserve has intensified based on 1) the increase in number of dissenters within the FOMC voters and 2) the emergence of three distinct groups of FOMC participants according to the Sep Dotplot’s 2019 FFTR projection. If the lack of consensus (widening of differences) worsens further, then that will complicate the FOMC outlook and weaken the case for lower rates for the rest of this year”. “There was no material change in the text of the Sep FOMC statement with the Fed keeping its pledge to “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion” which still keeps the door open for the Fed to rate cuts. In his press conference, FOMC Chairman Powell said the Fed lowered interest rates to keep economy strong, provide insurance against risks, but he still did not commit to further rate cuts, only “moderate rate adjustments.” “After delivering the two 25bps cuts in Jul and Sep, we still project two more 25bps “insurance” rate cuts at the 29/30 Oct and the 10/11 Dec FOMC, bringing the upper bound of the FFTR lower to 1.5% and well below the 2% inflation target. But the split within the ranks of the Fed Reserve adds uncertainty to our call. We are still confident of the Oct rate cut but have lowered the probability of a Dec rate cut from 75% to 55%”.

Reuters reports the latest statement from India’s Finance Minister Sitharaman, as she announced a series of fiscal measures to ramp up country’s slowi

Reuters reports the latest statement from India’s Finance Minister Sitharaman, as she announced a series of fiscal measures to ramp up country’s slowing economic growth. Key Quotes: Propose to slash corporate tax rate for domestic firms. Corporate tax rate slashed to 25.75 % effective tax rate. No minimum alternate tax on local companies. New locally incorporated firm on or after October 1 making fresh investment into manufacturing option to pay income tax at 15%. Passed ordinance to amend income tax act, finance act. Cut minimum alternate tax (MAT) for companies that continue to avail exemptions to 15%. New manufacturing companies shall not be required to pay MAT. Enhanced surcharge to not apply on capital gains arising on sale of equity.Following the bullish opening gap, the Indian Rupee accelerates the upside vs. the US dollar, with USD/INR now printing fresh six-week lows at 70.675, down 1.00% so far.  

With the trade/political pessimism weighing on stimulus hopes (be it monetary or fiscal) from India, China and Australia, Asian stocks flash mixed signals.

Expectations of further rate cuts from RBA/China, fiscal stimulus from India lure equity buyers.US-China trade talks, Saudi strikes weigh on risk tone.Light economic calendar highlights trade/political headlines, Fed speak for fresh impulse.With the trade/political pessimism weighing on stimulus hopes (be it monetary or fiscal) from India, China and Australia, Asian stocks flash mixed signals before the European session begins on Friday. While MSCI’s index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan registers modest gains, Japan’s NIKKEI and South Korea’s KOSPI cheer expectations of a Japan-South Korea and the US-Japan trade deals. China’s HANG SENG struggles between gains and losses amid recent differences between the US and China, be it political or trade-related, whereas Australia’s ASX 200 gains nearly half a percent amid rising calls of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) further rate cuts considering Thursday’s uptick in headline Unemployment Rate. Further, New Zealand’s NZX 50 is in 0.30% profits as expectations of stimulus from largest consumer Australia please Kiwi traders.  Moving on, India’s BSE SENSEX welcomes the Reuters’ news that the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is up for announcing measures to boost the national growth. On the contrary, Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index and Malaysia’s FTSE Bursa Malaysia KFCI mark around 0.4% losses each. The Saudi-led alliance launched military strikes in Yemen while gaining support from major global developed economies. Looking forward, a lack of major data/events will keep traders near to trade/political headlines while seeking fresh market clues. However, public appearances by the Federal Reserve officials, namely the Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams and the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren, could also offer intermediate trade signals.

Renewed US dollar weakness across the board was the main underlying theme in Asia on the final trading day of this week, as markets looked to unwind f

Renewed US dollar weakness across the board was the main underlying theme in Asia on the final trading day of this week, as markets looked to unwind following busy sessions filled with key central banks’ events and macro data. Meanwhile, markets cheered fresh optimism surrounding the Brexit and trade developments. However, escalating Mid-East tensions kept the upbeat mood in check. The Asian stocks posted small gains in tandem with the US futures while Treasury yields witnessed a pull back the helped gold prices to cling onto the recovery gains above $ 1500 mark.   Amongst the G10 currencies, the Antipodeans continued to suffer amid dovish central banks’ expectations, as the AUD/USD pair refreshed two-week tops and battled the 0.6800 level. The Kiwi extended the downside below the 0.62 handle. The Yen, on the other hand, benefited from the cautious optimism and upbeat Japanese CPI figures, as USD/JPY dropped to near 107.80 region. USD/CAD traded flat above the 1.3250 level, as Saudi’s military response-led rise in oil prices offered a little boost to the resource-lined Loonie. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair regained the 1.1050 barrier while Cable continued to enjoy the Brexit optimism-sparked upbeat momentum near two-month tops. Main Topics in Asia US Agri. Sec. Perdue: Chinese officials to visit US farmland as trade talks continue – Reuters German Finance Ministry: Weak global economy and economic uncertainties are slowing German economy Saudi-led coalition launches military operation in Yemen - Saudi State TV Japanese CPI: Up 0.3% over the year before seasonal adjustment White House Trade Advisor Navarro: Fed costing US a full point of GDP growth Ex-IMF chief Christine Lagarde says global growth 'fragile,' 'under threat' - RTRS citing AFP PBOC lowers one-year lending rate to 4.20% vs. 4.25% previous BOJ cuts key 5-10 Year bond purchases third time in six weeks Japan’s Motegi: Will meet with Iran's ForeignMin at UNGA, seek to ease Mid-East tensions Govt Sources: India likely to unveil measures to boost growth, Rupee tests 71.00 vs. USD Japan’s Sugawara: Will hold bilateral talks with S. Korea, Won hits 2-day highs Key Focus Ahead The EUR macro calendar for today is a thin-showing, with the German Producer Price Index (PPI) and Bank of England (BOE) quarterly bulletin of note. And therefore, the Brexit negotiations between the UK Brexit Secretary Barclay and the European Union (EU) Chief Brexit Negotiator Barnier will hog the limelight. In the NA session, the Canadian Retail Sales data (due at 1230 GMT) and Eurozone Consumer Confidence data at 1400 GMT will be closely eyed amid a slew of speech from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and ahead of the Baker Hughes US Oil Rigs Count data. Key Fedspeak 1215 GMT: Fed’s Williams 1520 GMT: Fed’s Rosengren 1700 GMT: Fed’s Kaplan EUR/USD's range play continues ahead of Eurozone Consumer Confidence EUR/USD remains directionless despite the drop in the US treasury yields. An above-forecast Eurozone Consumer Confidence will likely push the pair higher to the trendline falling from June highs.  GBP/USD sits at 2-month tops ahead of key Brexit talks Fresh optimism surrounding the Brexit deal propels GBP/USD to a two-month high. Brexit talks between the EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier and UK Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay will be the key. Canada: Retail Sales to tick higher in July – Scotiabank Analysts at Scotiabank offer a brief preview on what to expect from Friday’s Canadian Retail Sales data that will drop in at 1230 GMT. Markets unmoved by Fed cut and pause The Federal Reserve’s latest twist in monetary policy, reducing the fed funds for a second time in two months and then pausing for instructions has left markets without a clear direction on interest rates.  

Reuters reports the latest comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Peter Kazimir, with the key headlines found below. N

Reuters reports the latest comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Peter Kazimir, with the key headlines found below. No need to change QE parameters for extended period of time. Stimulus package gives Lagarde "a lot of breathing space".

The selling mood persists around the Greenback at the end of the week and is now dragging the US Dollar Index (DXY) to session lows near 98.20. US Dol

DXY trades on the defensive in the 98.20 region.Yields of the US 10-year note met support near 1.75%.Fed’s E.Rosengren speaks later in the day.The selling mood persists around the Greenback at the end of the week and is now dragging the US Dollar Index (DXY) to session lows near 98.20. US Dollar Index grinds lower post-FOMC The index is down for the second session in a row on Friday, returning to the low-98.00s in tandem with declining US yields and amidst cautious optimism surrounding US-China trade talks. In fact, officials from both countries are expected to meet again today in order to lay the groundwork for more relevant negotiations at the beginning of October. Further out, another repo operation is expected by the New York Fed later today against the backdrop of persistent funding stress in the US money markets. In the docket, Boston Fed E.Rosengren (voter, centrist) will speak at an event in New York. What to look for around USD DXY keeps the trade within range so far while markets digest the FOMC event and assess another rate cut under the ‘mid-cycle adjustment’. Domestic data in combination of political and trade developments should be key in determining the next decision on rates after Fed’s Powell left the door open for extra easing along the road. Looking at the broader picture, the positive view on the Dollar is still well underpinned by the solid US labour market, strong consumer confidence and spending and the auspicious pick up in consumer prices, all adding to the buck’s safe haven appeal and the status of ‘global reserve currency’. Against this backdrop, the slowdown persists in overseas economies while central banks stick to a more aggressive dovish bias.  US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the pair is losing 0.15% at 98.22 and faces immediate contention at 97.86 (monthly low Sep.13) followed by 97.60 (100-day SMA) and finally 97.17 (low Aug.23). On the upside, a break above 99.10 (high Sep.12) would aim for 99.37 (2019 high Sep.3) and then 99.89 (monthly high May 11 2017).

Given the Reuters’ report of Indian diplomats preparing for a stimulus, USD/INR flashes a bearish candlestick formation on daily chart.

USD/INR weakens amid talks of Indian officials readying measures to boost economic growth.50 and 100-day EMAs join key Fibonacci retracement levels to offer strong downside supports.Given the Reuters’ report of Indian diplomats preparing for a stimulus, USD/INR flashes a bearish candlestick formation on daily chart while declining to 71.09 ahead of Friday’s European open. The bearish pattern increases the odds of pair’s drop to 70.95/90 support-confluence including 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of July-September upside and 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), a break of which can push sellers towards another important support joint around 70.45/40 comprising 100-day EMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement. In a case where the quote keeps trading southwards below 70.40, June month high near 70.10 will lure bears. On the contrary, an upside clearance of 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, at 71.60, could trigger fresh advances of the pair targeting weekly tops near 72.33 and monthly top nearing 72.63. USD/INR daily chart Trend: Further declines expected  

EUR/USD's struggle for a clear directional bias continues despite the pullback in the US treasury yields and ahead of the Eurozone Consumer Confidence

EUR/USD remains directionless despite the drop in the US treasury yields. An above-forecast Eurozone Consumer Confidence will likely push the pair higher to the trendline falling from June highs. EUR/USD's struggle for a clear directional bias continues despite the pullback in the US treasury yields and ahead of the Eurozone Consumer Confidence data.  The currency pair is currently trading at 1.1058, representing moderate gains on the day. Notably, the common currency is trapped in a narrowing price range between 1.10-1.11 since Sept. 16 despite the US 10-year treasury yield's drop from 1.907% to 1.75%.  Focus on Eurozone data Eurozone's preliminary Consumer Confidence index for September, scheduled for release at 14:00 GMT, is expected to come in at -7, having printed at -7.1 in August.  A weaker-than-expected data would validate the European Central Bank's (ECB) recent decision to dole out fresh stimulus and could push the EUR lower.  The pair may challenge resistance of the trendline connecting June 26 and Aug. 13 highs if the consumer confidence beats estimates with a positive print. As of writing, the trendline resistance is located at 1.1083.  The technical outlook, however, would turn bullish if and when the pair violates the bearish lower highs set up with a daily close above Sept. 13's high of 1.1110.  German Producer Price Index due at 06:00 GMT may be ignored by markets, as factory slowdown is generally accepted by now and priced in.  Technical levels  

Speaking at a regular press conference on Friday, Japanese Trade Minister Sugawara said Japan will hold talks with South Korea over their move to tigh

Speaking at a regular press conference on Friday, Japanese Trade Minister Sugawara said Japan will hold talks with South Korea over their move to tighten export controls to the South, as cited by Reuters. Tokyo agreed to Seoul’s request for consultations as part of a dispute settlement through the World Trade Organization (WTO). Sugawara said: “We will make arrangements through diplomatic channels.” Japan’s Motegi: Wants S. Korea to correct situation which is against international law The Korean Won jumped to fresh two-day tops of 1,188.40 vs. the greenback on easing South Korea-Japan trade tensions.

With the EU lawmakers finally speaking the UK PM Johnson’s lines, the GBP/USD pair takes the bids to 1.2550 while heading into the London open on Friday.

Fresh optimism surrounding the Brexit deal propels GBP/USD to a two-month high.Brexit talks between the EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier and UK Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay will be the key.BOE’s quarterly Bulletin, Fed speak, trade headlines can offer intermediate moves.With the EU lawmakers finally speaking the UK PM Johnson’s lines, the GBP/USD pair takes the bids to 1.2550 while heading into the London open on Friday. Not only the European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker’s openness towards alternative solutions to the Irish backstop recently triggered the optimism that the United Kingdom (UK) lawmakers will be able to sign a Brexit deal with the European Union (EU) by the Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s October 31 deadline. Adding to the sentiment could be comments from the Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar that showed readiness to discuss the deal his British counterpart during next week’s United Nation’s (UN) gathering. On the other hand, the US Dollar (USD) seems to witness downside pressure amid the latest shift in trade sentiments with China. The same could be witnessed in downbeat performance of the US 10-year treasury yields. Investors will be closely observing details of today’s meeting between the EU and UK’s key Brexit negotiators after the BBC news claimed that the British office has already shared documents showing Irish backstop alternatives with the EU. It should, however, be noted that a final deal is still very far as Irish PM and the UK’s members of the Parliament (MPs) also have a right to interfere and won’t miss that. Also, the Bank of England (BOE) recently downgraded its growth and inflation forecasts and might follow the suit via its quarterly bulletin. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve policymakers, namely Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams and the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren, are also up for public appearances and could share details of the Fed’s recent hawkish rate cut. Technical Analysis GBP/USD buyers need to conquer three-week-old upward sloping trend-line, close to 1.2580 now, in order to aim for 1.2650 and then to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of May-September downpour, at 1.2712. In a case, nearly overbought conditions of 14-day relative strength index (RSI) triggers the pair’s pullback below 100-DMA level of 1.2490, 1.2385/80 area including July 17 low and early-September high will be the key to watch.

Risk reversals on EUR/CHF (EURCHF1MRR), a gauge of calls to put, jumped to the highest level since May on Friday, indicating the investors are adding

EUR/CHF risk reversals have jumped to the levels last seen in May. Risk reversals indicate the demand for call options is rising. Risk reversals on EUR/CHF (EURCHF1MRR), a gauge of calls to put, jumped to the highest level since May on Friday, indicating the investors are adding bets to position for a rally in the common currency.  The one-month risk reversals rose to -0.75, the highest level since May 10. The negative print indicates the implied volatility premium for the put options is still higher than that for the call options.  The gauge, however, has risen from -1.05 to -0.75 this month, meaning the volatility premium for puts has dropped or the demand for the call options has increased.  EUR/CHF is currently trading at 1.0963, having dropped 0.37 percent on Thursday.  EURCHF1MRR
 

Reuters quotes two Indian government sources, as saying that the country’s Finance Minister Sitharaman is likely to roll out stimulus measures to boos

Reuters quotes two Indian government sources, as saying that the country’s Finance Minister Sitharaman is likely to roll out stimulus measures to boost economic growth. Key Headlines: The measures include a review of import tariffs on certain items. We are waiting for the approval from the prime minister’s office, and the measures could be announced on Friday. The federal government is also urging the Goods and Services Tax (GST) council to cut tax rates on items including auto sector products and tourism. We were planning to spend RBI money (the extra dividend) for new investments. It does not seem possible now. Meanwhile, USD/INR witnessed a bearish opening gap on Friday, down -0.33%, testing the 71 handle amid economic stimulus hopes.

The US Federal Reserve's (Fed) holding of US treasury securities rose by $3,934 million to $2,102,090 million during the week ended Sept. 18, data fro

The US Federal Reserve's (Fed) holding of US treasury securities rose by $3,934 million to $2,102,090 million during the week ended Sept. 18, data from the Federal Reserve showed on Thursday.  Key points Majority of securities that the Fed holds are longer term securities issued by the US government like Treasury notes and Treasury bonds.  The average daily figure of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) holdings decreased by $913 million to $1,488,692 million for the week ending September 18.
 

NZD/USD drops to a fresh two-week low, near to monthly bottom, while taking rounds to 0.6290 during early Friday.

NZD/USD drops to fresh two-week low amid bearish MACD.A fresh monthly low will favor declines to support-lines stretched from May and June 2019.NZD/USD drops to a fresh two-week low, near to monthly bottom, while taking rounds to 0.6290 during early Friday. With the 12-bar moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) flashing bearish signal, sellers are waiting for a break of current monthly low around 0.6270 in order target downward sloping trend-lines from June and May month bottoms, close to 0.6235 and 0.6220 respectively. On the flip side, 0.6340 and 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) level of 0.6372 can restrict the pair’s near-term advances. During the pair’s further rise beyond 21-day EMA, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of July-September declines, at 0.6395, and 0.6445 nearing 50-day EMA will be the key to watch. NZD/USD daily chart Trend: bearish  

The HSBC analysts offer their reaction to Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) hawkish rate cut decision. Key Quotes: “FOMC dec

The HSBC analysts offer their reaction to Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) hawkish rate cut decision. Key Quotes: “FOMC decision not likely to prove a game-changer for the US dollar. USD 'remains a "high yield" play. Will likely continue to capitalize on its yield advantage.”

USD/JPY is currently trading around the 200-hour moving average (MA) support of 107.93. The downside has been restricted around the 200-hour MA since

USD/JPY is teasing a downside break of the recent trading range. A break below the lower end of the trading range – 200-hour MA – would expose 107.45.USD/JPY is currently trading around the 200-hour moving average (MA) support of 107.93.  The downside has been restricted around the 200-hour MA since Sept. 18, meanwhile, the upside has been capped above 108.00.  Acceptance below the 200-hour MA support would imply a resumption of the sell-off from recent highs near 108.50 and could yield a drop to the hourly chart support of 107.45.  A range breakdown could happen if equities turn red, putting a bid under the safe-haven JPY amid heightened tensions in the middle east.  The outlook, however, would turn bullish if the range is breached on the higher side. That would expose recent highs near 108.50.  Hourly chartTrend: Bearish below 200-hour MA Technical levels  

Further comments are crossing the wires from the Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi, as he seeks to defuse the escalating Middle East geopolitical tensi

Further comments are crossing the wires from the Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi, as he seeks to defuse the escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions. Will meet with Iran's Foreign Minister next week. Both will be at the UN General Assembly (UNGA). Want to discuss ways of easing middle east tensions. Saudi ForeignMin: Complacency towards Iran will encourage further hostilities Saudi-led coalition launches military operation in Yemen - Saudi State TV Brent technical analysis: Trades around $65 after defending key MA

Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir said late-Thursday, via Twitter, complacency towards Iran will encourage it to commit furth

Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir said late-Thursday, via Twitter, complacency towards Iran will encourage it to commit further hostile acts that threatens international peace. Jubier tweeted out: The weekend attacks which targeted Saudi Aramco’s oil installations was an “attack on the world” and that “this vicious attack is an extension of Iran’s sabotage and aggressive policies and the international community must shoulder its responsibilities and take a firm stance against Iran’s criminal behaviour.” He spoke ahead of the Saudi’s military response overnight to Saturday’s attack. Saudi-led coalition launches military operation in Yemen - Saudi State TV Both crude benchmarks are seen nearly 1% higher on the Middle-East tensions flaring up while receding global growth fears also underpin.

A barrel of Brent oil is currently changing hands near $65, having bounced from the 4-hour chat 50-candle moving average on Wednesday. The average was

Brent is looking north, having bounced up from 4H 50-candle MA. The black gold could challenge Thursday's high of $65.64. A barrel of Brent oil is currently changing hands near $65, having bounced from the 4-hour chat 50-candle moving average on Wednesday.  The average was located at $63.16 two days ago and is now seen at $63.65.  Brent's bounce from the 50-candle MA looks set to gather traction as the 4-hour chart moving average convergence divergence is about to cross above zero, confirming a bullish reversal. The 5- and 10-candle MAs are also trending north, indicating bullish setup.  Prices could soon retest Thursday's high of $65.64. A violation there would expose $67.45 (July 11 high).  The bullish case would weaken if the support of the 4-hour chart 50-candle MA is violated.  4-hour chartTrend: Bullish Technical levels  

Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi is on the wires now, via Reuters, commenting on the South Korean-Japanese trade spat. Key Headlines: Wants S. Korea t

Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi is on the wires now, via Reuters, commenting on the South Korean-Japanese trade spat. Key Headlines: Wants S. Korea to correct the situation which is against international law. Meeting with S. Korean Foreign Minister not fixed at the moment.

According to the Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso, the monetary policy is on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to decide, per Reuters.

According to the Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso, the monetary policy is on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to decide, per Reuters.

AUD/JPY is looking south with the hourly chart reporting a bear flag breakdown. That pattern indicates the sell-off from Sept. 18's high near 74.20 ha

AUD/JPY's hourly chart shows a bear flag breakdown, a bearish continuation pattern. The pair risks falling to 72.30 in the next day or two amid increasing dovish RBA expectations. AUD/JPY is looking south with the hourly chart reporting a bear flag breakdown.  That pattern indicates the sell-off from Sept. 18's high near 74.20 has resumed and the pair could drop to 72.30 (target as per the measured move method).  The bearish case would weaken if the pair rises above 73.50 (Flag's high), although, as of now, that looks unlikely, as the probability of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cutting rates by 25 basis points in October has increased sharply in the last 24 hours.  Notably, the National Bank of Australia (NAB), Commonwealth Bank, National Bank of Australia (NAB) have joined Westpac in predicting a rate cut in October. Prior to Thursday's dismal Aussie jobs report, most banks excluding Westpac were predicting a rate cut in November.  Hourly chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

With the trade pessimism weighing on the commodity-linked currencies, USD/CAD gives less importance to Oil price increase.

USD/CAD on the bids after a negative daily performance, ignores WTI run-up.Uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade deal, mixed expectations from Canadian Retail Sales seem to play their roles.With the trade pessimism weighing on the commodity-linked currencies, USD/CAD gives less importance to Oil price increase as the pair rises to 1.3270 by the press time of Asian morning on Friday. The White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow and the US President Donald Trump’s adviser on China Michael Pillsbury spread downbeat sentiment concerning the US-China trade negotiations. Further, China’s warning to the US for its intervention in the Hong Kong issue can add doubts to any breakthrough in the key October talks between the world’s two largest economies. On the contrary, the US Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue spotted Chinese officials’ readiness to visit the US farms while being optimistic about a deal with the dragon nation. Elsewhere, Oil prices benefit from the Saudi-led alliance’s strike on Yemen but pessimism spread through Germany’s monthly report, the White House Adviser Peter Navarro and the ex-IMF (International Monetary Fund) Chief Christine Lagarde limits the energy benchmark’s run-up. Moving on, Canada’s August month Retail Sales will be in the spotlight for now. The headline reading is expected to rise by 0.6% MoM versus 0.0% prior. Though, the Retail Sales ex-autos bears downbeat market consensus of 0.3% growth compared to 0.9% previous readouts. Technical Analysis Unless decisively closing below 100 and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), 1.3255 and 1.3245 respectively, odds of pair’s gradual rise towards monthly top surrounding 1.3385 can’t be denied.

Analysts at Scotiabank offer a brief preview on what to expect from Friday’s Canadian Retail Sales data that will drop in at 1230 GMT. Key Quotes: “Sa

Analysts at Scotiabank offer a brief preview on what to expect from Friday’s Canadian Retail Sales data that will drop in at 1230 GMT. Key Quotes: “Sales are expected higher for the month. Two expected drivers include higher gasoline prices that were up by about 3-4% m/m, and higher auto sales.”

AUD/CHF is in the midst of a sell-off which could extend beyond a 38.2% retracement of the August lows to September highs, located at 0.6715, and targ

AUD/CHF is in the midst of a sell-off which could extend beyond a 38.2% retracement for a 50% reversion. A subsequent pull-back, however, to the resistance and another sell-off will likely make for a high probability set up.AUD/CHF is in the midst of a sell-off which could extend beyond a 38.2% retracement of the August lows to September highs,  located at 0.6715, and target the 50% retracement at 0.6674 (meeting the 2019 lows) should the markets continue to unravel AUD longs coupled with uncertainties surrounding the health of the global economy.  The price broke below the late June lows and the 23.6% Fibo and in doing so is looking to extend the 2019 downtrend with the price now back below the descending trendline resistance.  A subsequent pull-back, however, to the resistance and another sell-off will likely make for a high probability set up to target the 61.8% Fibo in the 0.6630s and lower. AUD/CHF daily chart  

Having been supported by a bullish candlestick formation, EUR/USD takes the bids to 1.1050 during early Friday.

EUR/USD bounces off 23.6% Fibonacci retracement after Thursday’s bullish candlestick formation.Buyers aim for 1.1110/13 resistance-confluence with 1.1000 be on sellers radar.Having been supported by a bullish candlestick formation, EUR/USD takes the bids to 1.1050 during early Friday. The pair formed an ‘inverted hammer” candle while following the daily chart, which in turn favors the upside towards 1.1110/13 resistance-confluence including 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of June-September decline. However, pair’s further upside can be challenged by August 26 high of 1.1165, 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.1170 and 100-day SMA level near 1.1180. Alternatively, pair’s declines below 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.1040 can push the sellers to re-target 1.1000 round-figure with 1.0960 and 1.0930/25 likely being following support levels to watch, EUR/USD daily chart Trend: recovery expected  

Bank of Japan (BOJ) has reduced purchases of the Japanese government bonds maturing in five to 10 years for the third time in six weeks. The decision

Bank of Japan (BOJ) has reduced purchases of the Japanese government bonds maturing in five to 10 years for the third time in six weeks.  The decision to trim purchases is a part of routine operations undertaken by the BOJ to keep the 10-year yield around zero percent. The central bank, under the yield curve control framework, reduces the size of the purchases if the downward pressure on the yields strengthens. The BOJ steps up purchases if the yields begin to rise sharply.  The latest move comes after the official data showed the Japanese inflation growth eased to two-year lows in August. The data will likely put pressure on the BOJ to ramp up an already massive stimulus program. On Thursday, the central bank kept key policy tools unchanged and expressed readiness to do ease more, if required.   

PBOC lowers one-year lending rate to 4.20% vs. 4.25% previous More to come...

PBOC lowers one-year lending rate to 4.20% vs. 4.25% previous   More to come... 

The AUD/USD is losing altitude as expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut the interest rates in October have surged in the last 24 hours

AUD/USD drops to two-week lows below 0.6780 on dovish RBA expectations. The big four Australian banks expect the RBA to cut rates in October and December. The AUD/USD is losing altitude as expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut the interest rates in October have surged in the last 24 hours.  The currency pair, which traded close to 0.68 two hours ago, fell to 0.6778 – the lowest level since Sept. 4 – a few minutes before press time.  As of writing, the pair is seen at 0.6783, representing  0.10% losses on the day, having dropped 0.52% and 0.55% in the preceding two days.  The probability of RBA cutting rates in October by 25 basis points has increased sharply since Thursday's Aussie data, which showed an uptick in the jobless rate to 5.3% and a drop in the full-time jobs in August.  Notably, the big four Australian banks – Westpac, Australia New Zealand Bank, Commonwealth Bank, National Bank of Australia (NAB) – expect the RBA to cut rates in October and December versus their previous forecast of a rate cut in November and February. (Westpac has been predicting rate cuts in October and February next year since before the labor data).  Add to that, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish rate cut and the path of least resistance for the AUD appears to be on the downside. Put simply, the AUD is likely to trade on the defensive during the day ahead.  The Fed on Wednesday cut rates by 25 basis points as expected but the officials were split on the need for further easing in the near-term. That seems to have convinced many observers that the central bank will stand pat for the rest of the year.  Technical levels
 

Reuters is reporting that the ex-IMF chief Christine Lagarde said that global growth is 'fragile and' 'under threat'. She said that central bankers mu

Reuters is reporting that the ex-IMF chief Christine Lagarde said that global growth is 'fragile and' 'under threat'. She said that central bankers must be 'predictable' and focus on stability. The nod from EU lawmakers paves the way for Lagarde to take up the post with the European Central Bank in November. she will be formally appointed to the post by EU leaders in October and will be the first woman to helm the ECB. 

In addition to bouncing off multi-month-old support-line, Gold gains support form recently downbeat trade/political headlines while taking the bid to $1,500.

Gold respects recent challenges to market sentiment.Trade optimism fades, Middle East tension increases.Equities, bonds also register modest changes.In addition to bouncing off multi-month-old rising trend-line, Gold gains support form recently downbeat trade/political headlines while taking the bids to $1,500 during Friday’s Asian session. The news/reports concerning Saudi-led alliance’s military strikes in Yemen and challenges to the US-China trade optimism, as ascertained from the US diplomats’ comments, seem to attract the yellow metal buyers. Though, bulls are still catching a breath after a slew of busy sessions in a few days as no major data/even is up for publishing during early Friday. It should also be noted that S&P 500 Futures and MSCI’s Asia Pacific Index (ex-Japan) join the US 10-year Treasury yields while portraying the lack of sentiment. It’s worth mentioning that the pessimism spread through Germany’s monthly report, the White House Adviser Peter Navarro and the ex-IMF (International Monetary Fund) Chief Christine Lagarde have also been considered by safe-haven. Furthermore, China again stopped the US intervention in the Hong Kong issue and reignited fears of another trade war ahead of the key October meeting. Given the lack of major data/events, investors will keep an eye over the trade/political headlines for fresh direction. Technical Analysis FXStreet Analyst Ross J Burland spots the bulls’ struggle while saying: "The bearish pin bar and the 4-HR 200 moving average is keeping the bulls in check with a series of failing bullish attempts higher in the 1,500s.  A 50% mean reversion of the late June swing lows to recent highs around 1470 guards the 19 July swing highs at 1,452.93. On the upside, the  4-HR 200 MA is located at 1,510 and is guarding 1,550 level is still the target to breach which then opens prospects for 1,590 as the 127.2% Fibo target area."

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0730 vs Thursday's fix of 7.0732.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0730 vs Thursday's fix of 7.0732.

White House trade advisor Peter Navarro reportedly said during an interview that the Federal Reserve is costing the US a full point of gross domestic

White House trade advisor Peter Navarro reportedly said during an interview that the Federal Reserve is costing the US a full point of gross domestic product (GDP) growth.  The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and kept the doors open for more easing in the near-term.  President Trump, however, was rooting for a 50 basis point rate. Trump wants the Fed to embark on a full-blown easing cycle and has repeatedly criticized the Fed for keeping the interest rates high. 

USD/JPY is flat in the Tokyo opening hour as we wind down into the close for the week following a data-heavy number of sessions which have left more q

USD/JPY has been trading in a tight range in AsiaThe risk of a bearish extension will increase on a break below 107.45.USD/JPY is flat in the Tokyo opening hour as we wind down into the close for the week following a data-heavy number of sessions which have left more questions unanswered and the outlook murky.  USD/JPY has been trading in a tight range in Asia, between a low of 107.92 and a high of 108.08. Overnight, the pair ranged between 107.80 and 108.10, reversing the FOMC bounce and brushing off the Bank of Japan’s dovish tone as US stocks failed to convince on the upside and markets remains sidelined.  The S&P 500 finished less than a point lower near 3,006 after coming in just a couple of points shy of its all-time high of 3,025.86 scored on July 26th. The Dow lost about 53 points to close near 27,093, while the Nasdaq Composite put on 5 points, or 0.1%, to close near 8,183. As for yields, the US 2-year treasury yields dropped from 1.77% to 1.74% (versus 1.67% pre-FOMC), while the 10-year yield ranged between 1.75% and 1.80%.  Fed expected to cut 25 basis points before year is out Following the hawkish rate cut from the Federal Reserve, markets are still pricing 25bp of easing by year-end, and a terminal rate of 1.17%. As for the Bank of Japan, if today's Consumer Price Index is anything to go by, the central bank may well be forced to act. "Japan Aug national CPI is seen decelerating to 0.3%yr overall, 0.5%yr on the core measures, the sort of reading that is behind the Bank of Japan’s dovish tone yesterday which sets the stage for fresh easing steps end-October," analysts at Westpac explained. Valeria Bednarik, the Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained that USD/JPY pair is consolidating just below the 108.00 level. "The 4 hours chart shows that it has spent most of the day below the 20 SMA, after breaking below the moving average at the beginning of the day. Still holding above the larger ones, technical indicators are within negative levels, although without directional strength. The risk of a bearish extension will increase on a break below 107.45, a relevant Fibonacci support that has contained sellers for over a week."

The big four Australian banks are now expecting an RBA rate cut on Oct. 1, with the National Bank of Australia (NAB) joining Westpac, Australia New Ze

The big four Australian banks are now expecting an RBA rate cut on Oct. 1, with the National Bank of Australia (NAB) joining Westpac, Australia New Zealand Bank and Commonwealth Bank in that regard.  The NAB expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates by 25 basis points in October and December versus the previous forecast of rate cuts in November and February.  The probability of an RBA rate cut to 0.75 percent in less than a fortnight has surged in the last 24 hours, courtesy of a dismal Australian labor market data.  The jobless rate unexpectedly rose to 5.3 percent in August, from 5.2 percent in July. While the economy added 34,700 new jobs, the full-time jobs fell by 15,500, the data released on Thursday showed. 
 

Following its positive closing on the previous-day, mainly based on the Bank Indonesia’s rate cut, USD/IDR trades near 14,100 during Friday's Asian session.

USD/IDR stays below key moving averages despite bullish MACD.A pullback can revisit 23.6% Fibonacci retracement while an upside break may challenge 14,340/50 supply-zone.Following its positive closing on the previous-day, mainly based on the Bank Indonesia’s (BI) rate cut, USD/IDR trades near 14,100 during the Asian session on Friday. Bullish signal by 12-day moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) indicator paves the way for the pair’s another confrontation to the 14,190/200 area including the 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages (DMA). Should the pair manages to cross the key upside barrier, its rally towards 14,340/50 region comprising multiple highs marked in late-August and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of April-June decline will be challenged. Meanwhile, 14,040 and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement around 13,970 could entertain sellers during the pullback ahead of challenging them with a horizontal-line around 13,880. USD/IDR daily chart Trend: sideways  

Brexit-positive comments from the EU’s Juncker seems to fall behind recent trade/political pessimism as the GBP/JPY pair remains modestly changed.

GBP/JPY struggles amid contrasting fundamentals.EU leaders’ upbeat comments raise odds of a Brexit deal by October 31 deadline.US-China trade optimism fades, the Middle East contributes to geopolitical tension.Brexit-positive comments from the EU’s Juncker seems to fall behind recent trade/political pessimism as the GBP/JPY pair remains modestly changed to 135.30 during the early Asian session on Friday. The European Commission president, Jean Claude Juncker, recently offered a lifeline to the United Kingdom’s (UK) Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson by showing readiness to turn down the Irish backstop if Britain has good alternatives. Mr. Juncker also showed optimism towards reaching a deal with the UK by the current Brexit deadline of October 31. On the contrary, receding optimism concerning the US-China trade deal, as can be anticipated from the US officials’ recent comments, and renewed geopolitical tension in the Middle East weigh on the prices. The Saudi-led coalition recently launched military operation in Yemen. In case of the economic calendar, Japan’s August month inflation numbers flashed mixed signals. The headline National Consumer Price Index (CPI) lagged behind 0.6% forecast to 0.3% on YoY while National CPI ex-Food and energy grew past-0.5% expectations to 0.6% on a yearly basis. With only the Bank of England’s (BOE) quarterly bulletin on cards, investors will keep a tab on trade/political headline for fresh impulse. Technical Analysis A sustained break above late-July highs nearing 135.70 becomes necessary for the pair to aim for July 09 high of 136.30 and July month peak of 137.80, failing to do so highlights overbought conditions of 14-day relative strength index (RSI) that can fetch the quote to 100-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 134.85 prior to highlighting 133.90/85 support-zone, which comprises lows marked on July 18 and during the current week.

The Japanese consumer price index for Japan in June 2019 was 101.8 (2015=100), up 0.3% over the year before seasonal adjustment, and the same level as

Japan CPI (yoy) aug: 0.3% (est 0.3%, prev 0.5%).This is the sort of reading that is behind the Bank of Japan’s dovish tone.The Japanese consumer price index for Japan in June 2019 was 101.8 (2015=100), up 0.3% over the year before seasonal adjustment, and the same level as the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Japan CPI (YoY) Aug: 0.3% (est 0.3%, prev 0.5%). CPI ex fresh food (YoY) Aug: 0.5% (est 0.5%, prev 0.6%). CPI ex fresh food, energy (YoY) Aug: 0.6% (est 0.5%, prev 0.6%). yesterday which sets the stage for fresh easing steps end-October. We had a 7-2 vote, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) this morning kept its Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) with yield curve control and forward guidance unchanged: “The BoJ remains in wait-and-see mode but recognises that risks from overseas economies continue to increase and now judges that it is becoming necessary to pay closer attention to the possibility that the momentum towards achieving the price stability target will be lost. If the outlook sours further and fosters JPY strengthening, the BoJ could take action in October by cutting the policy rate further into negative as the first line of defence," analysts at Danske Bank explained. 

Japan Foreign Bond Investment fell from previous ¥724.4B to ¥476B in September 13

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks fell from previous ¥-161.3B to ¥-971.9B in September 13

EUR/CAD has lost its footing on a strong Canadian dollar and oil prices following a steady hand fro the Bank of Canada of late, a strong Canadian econ

European Central Bank delivered an inadequate package, BoC on hold. Federal Reserve's hawkish cut exposes the downside in EUR crosses. EUR/CAD has lost its footing on a strong Canadian dollar and oil prices following a steady hand fro the Bank of Canada of late, a strong Canadian economy, relatively, and tensions in the Middle East.  BoC and Oil to support CAD EUR/CAD is currently trading at 1.4642 and flat in the Asian session, having fallen from a high on the 1.47 handle to a low of 1.4623 overnight. The price of oil has found support at the 200-hour simple moving average around 58 the figure, way off the start of the week's spike highs in the 63 handle following the reports of the Suadi oil facility attack. However, the US has downplayed the provocations and has expressed an unwillingness to engage in war with Iran and the Saudis are confident that production will be back to full capacity by the end of this month. Nevertheless, tensions and uncertainty are likely to underpin the price of oil and the Loonie.  Meanwhile, the European Central Bank delivered an inadequate package in the market's opinion and leaves the door open for further action in due course which should be a weight on the euro, especially following the Federal Reserve's hawkish cut which exposes the downside in EUR crosses.  EUR/CAD levels  

Successful trading beyond 100-day simple moving average fails to lend much strength to the GBP/USD pair as it struggles around 1.2520 during Friday morning.

GBP/USD stays little changed around two-month high even after clearing 100-DMA for the first time in more than four months.A rising trend-line since August-end, higher RSI seems to challenge buyers.Successful trading beyond 100-day simple moving average (DMA) fails to lend much strength to the GBP/USD pair as it struggles around 1.2520 during Friday morning. Pair’s run-up to the highest in two-months, also above 100-DMA for the first time since early-May, fails to clear a three-week-old upward sloping trend-line, close to 1.2580. Also raising challenges to buyers is the nearly overbought conditions of 14-day relative strength index (RSI). With this, pair’s declines below 100-DMA level of 1.2490 could trigger fresh pullbacks to 1.2385/80 area including July 17 low and early-September high. However, pair’s further declines should stall around August-end tops nearing 1.2310, if not then odds of witnessing a plunge towards sub-1.2200 area can’t be denied. Alternatively, an upside clearance of 1.2580 resistance-line can propel GBP/USD to 1.2650 and then to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of May-September downpour, at 1.2712. Further, the 200-DMA level of 1.2740 could stop bulls beyond 1.2712. GBP/USD daily chart Trend: pullback expected  

Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) came in at 0.6%, above expectations (0.5%) in August

Japan National CPI ex-Fresh Food (YoY) registered at 0.5% above expectations (0.4%) in August

Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 0.3%, below expectations (0.6%) in August

Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) meets forecasts (0.5%) in August

Despite witnessing some key headlines from Iran and Saudi Arabia, WTI fails to register much momentum as it trades around $58.70 amid initial Friday.

WTI fails to hold on to recovery gains amid mixed headlines from the Arab world.Kuwait-Iran diplomats talk to de-escalate regional tension, Saudi-led coalition strikes Yemen.Baker Hughes Rig Counts to occupy economic calendar while trade/political news will be the key to watch for fresh impulse.Despite witnessing some key headlines from Iran and Saudi Arabia, WTI fails to register much momentum as it trades around $58.70 amid initial Asian session on Friday. While doubts surrounding any breakthrough from the US-China trade meeting in October seem to weigh on the energy benchmark, news that Foreign Ministers of Kuwait and Iran discussed ways to de-escalate tension in the Middle East region should have exerted additional downside pressure on the prices. On the contrary, headlines from the Saudi State TV spotting military operation by the Saudi-led alliance in the north of Hodeidah in Yemen indicate a further recovery in the black gold. Although geopolitical headlines concerning the Middle East will be the key to forecast near-term WTI moves, investors will also follow numbers from the Baker Hughes’ weekly US Oil Rig Count that stood at 733 during the last readout. It should also be noted that while recently erupted political tension signal WTI upside, trade pessimism and increase in inventory numbers from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) might exert downside pressure on the quote. Technical Analysis Not only $60.00 round-figure but July high surrounding $61.00 and recent tops near $63.15 are likely key upside barriers for the energy benchmark. Meanwhile, 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) level of $57.90 seems crucial support to watch as it holds the gate to further declines towards six-week-old rising trend-line around $54.50.

EUR/AUD is on the front foot following a poor result in the Aussie Unemployment data which saw a rise on the number of 0.1% vs expectations and prior.

Markets priced in a greater risk of an October RBA rate cut.ECB delivered on all policy fronts but market expects more to come.EUR/AUD is on the front foot following a poor result in the Aussie Unemployment data which saw a rise on the number of 0.1% vs expectations and prior. Subsequently, EUR/AUD shot up to the vicinity of the 1.63 handle overnight.  EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.6252, rather flat on the Asia session so far having done most of the leg work on the data release and subsequent trade thereafter thought European markets. The US supply took the pair down to a low of 1.6234. "AUD/USD was already softening in sympathy with CNH when Australia’s August labour force survey revealed a 12-month high unemployment rate of 5.3%. The Aussie fell through 0.6800 as markets priced in a greater risk of an October RBA rate cut," analysts at Westpac explained.  More to be expected from ECB Meanwhile, looking to the ECB, while the central bank delivered on all policy fronts; the markets were looking for more, so the euro is unlikely to find too much of a bid with pending rate cuts around the corner - Indeed,  the "adequacy" of the package, as well as the introduction of a tiered deposit system, left the markets puzzled which makes for a treacherous plan in the euro, especially given the Federal Reserve's hawkish cut which exposes the downside in EUR crosses.  EUR/AUD levels  

Saudi State TV is reporting a military operation Yemen against military targets - However, the market is not convinced that this is an extreme escalat

Saudi State TV is reporting a military operation Yemen against military targets - However, the market is not convinced that this is an extreme escalation of the status quo right now considering the U.s. has already announced that they would prefer to impose sanctions on Iran rather than military strikes. The US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, explained earlier that Washington is seeking a “peaceful resolution” with Iran in the wake of the attack on Saudi oil facilities, making clear that Washington would limit its initial response to further sanctions. Pompeo’s remarks followed visits to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and significantly cooled down the rhetoric after Donald Trump when he warned the US was “locked and loaded” and when Pompeo had said the attack, which he blamed on Iran, was “an act of war”.

Despite bouncing off short-term key support-confluence, AUD/JPY struggles to clear immediate important EMA during early Friday in Asia.

AUD/JPY confronts 50-day EMA following a bounce off 21-day EMA, previous resistance-line.100-day EMA adds to the resistance with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement occupying the other extreme.Despite bouncing off short-term key support-confluence, AUD/JPY struggles to clear immediate exponential moving average (EMA) as it makes the rounds to 73.40 during early Friday in Asia. The quote recently took a U-turn from 73.30/20 support-confluence including 21-day EMA and a five-month-old falling support-line (previous resistance). However, 50-day EMA near 73.50 seems to restrict immediate upside. Should prices rise above 73.50, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of April-August decline near 74.10 and 100-day EMA level of 74.50 could question buyers targeting 50% Fibonacci retracement around 75.40. Alternatively, pair’s drop below 73.20 can revisit 72.50 rest-point comprising 23.6% Fibonacci retracement whereas 71.80 and multiple supports around 71.10/71.00 could entertain bears afterward. AUD/JPY daily chart Trend: sideways  

Chopped between a few headlines, the AUD/USD pair modestly changes to 0.6790 during Friday morning in Asia.

AUD/USD clings to 0.6790 amid a lack of major drivers.Recent trade pessimism confronts geopolitical news concerning the Middle East.Trade/political headlines will be the key to watch for fresh impulse.Chopped between a few headlines, the AUD/USD pair modestly changes to 0.6790 during Friday morning in Asia. Recent sentiment surrounding the US-China trade deal has been mixed amid the US visit of a delegation of 30 Chinese officials led by Vice Finance Minister Liao Min. While White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow and President Donald Trump’s adviser on China Michael Pillsbury seem less optimistic, the US Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue occupied the other extreme while spotting the Chinese officials’ readiness to visit the US farms. On the other hand, Chinese media also remained firm while saying that China is not anxious in reaching a deal with the US. Elsewhere, news that Kuwait’s Foreign Minister discussed ways to de-escalate regional tension with Iranian counterpart seems to tame recent fears of Kuwait-Iran war after the former alerted forces at the start of the week. The Aussie pair dropped to a two-week low on Thursday after the headline Unemployment Rate increased to 5.3% versus 5.2% prior, giving clearance to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) dovish appearance in the next meeting. The recovery in the risk tone fails to lend support to the AUD/USD pair as mixed trade headlines and an absence of positive drivers at home take the charge. Investors have no major data to follow on the economic calendar, which in turn keep pushing them towards trade/political headlines to search for fresh clues. Technical Analysis Unless successfully trading beyond 21-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 0.6805, which could push buyers towards 0.6850 and 0.6900, prices are less likely to avoid visiting month-start high near 0.6740.

German Finance Ministry’s September month report portrays a dovish picture of the Eurozone’s largest economy.

German Finance Ministry’s September month report portrays a dovish picture of the Eurozone’s largest economy. Key quotes “German economy started the third quarter on a weaker footing.” “Weak global economy and economic uncertainties are slowing German economy.” “Continued contraction in industrial production.” “No sign that negative trend in German exports is going to change.” “Labour market getting impetus from services sector, but growth in employment on the whole is slowing down.” FX implications Although the Euro (EUR) failed to reach much to the news, mainly due to market’s heavy emphasis on Antipodeans during the early Asian session, such headlines are likely to weigh on the regional currency amid the initial European session.

The US Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue recently crossed the wires, via Reuters, giving details of plans of a delegation of 30 Chinese officials.

The US Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue recently crossed the wires, via Reuters, giving details of plans of a delegation of 30 Chinese officials, led by Vice Finance Minister Liao Min, which is on its trade visit to the US. The report mentions that the Chinese officials will visit American farm regions with the US officials next week in an effort to build goodwill amid ongoing trade negotiations. Key quotes “They want to see the production of agriculture. I think they want to build goodwill.” FX implication Although no major market reaction could be spotted after the news, such positive headlines could confront recently downbeat sentiment surrounding the US-China trade deal and may help the commodities and the Antipodeans.
EUR/USD is ending Thursday in the lower part of its daily range.The level to beat for bears is the 1.1035 support.As the market is in a range, EUR/USD is waiting for a catalyst.  EUR/USD daily chart   The shared currency, on the daily chart, is trading in a bear trend below the main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). The Euro has been in a trading range over the last two weeks as the market participants are waiting for a catalyst. EUR/USD four-hour chart   EUR/USD is trading in a triangle pattern between the 100 and 200 SMA, suggesting a ranging market in the medium term. Euro is ending Thursday just above the 1.1035 support. A break below this level can lead to 1.1000 and 1.0965 to the downside, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.          EUR/USD 30-minute chart   EUR/USD is entering the Asian session near its daily lows below its main SMAs. Resistances are seen at the 1.1074 and 1.1120 levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator. Additional key levels  

With the US-China trade headlines parting ways from the recently upbeat tone, NZD/USD carries its weakness forward.

NZD/USD remains on the back foot as trade war fears renew.US diplomats, Chinese media seem to lose optimism surrounding the trade deal.NZ Credit Card Spending becomes an immediate catalyst amid a light economic calendar.With the US-China trade headlines parting ways from the recently upbeat tone, NZD/USD carries its weakness forward while trading around 0.6700 at the start of Friday’s Asian session. The Kiwi pair failed to justify better than forecast Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on Thursday as not only the US policymakers but Chinese media have also started challenging hopes of any breakthrough from the October month trade negotiations. Among them, comments from the White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow and from the US President Donald Trump’s adviser on China Michael Pillsbury sound alarming while Hu Xijin, the Chief in Editor at the Global Times, a Chinese media, didn’t refrain from flaunting the dragon nation’s not anxious stand to reach the trade deal with the US. It should also be noted that welcome prints of the US housing and manufacturing data could also be considered as additional catalysts that dragged the NZD/USD pair downwards. Looking forward, investors are likely to witness a lack of major drivers during the week’s last day as New Zealand’s August month Credit Card Spending YoY, expected 5.7% versus 5.0% prior, becomes the only data to watch on the economic calendar. As a result, trade/political headlines will be the key to direct pair’s near-term sentiment. Technical Analysis Prices are gradually declining towards early-month low near 0.6270 with the start of a bearish signal from 12-bar moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) indicator signaling further weakness in the direction to a downward-sloping trend-line connecting May 2017 lows and October 2018 bottom, around 0.6170. On the contrary, 21-day simple moving average (SMA) level around 0.6365 acts as an immediate upside barrier, a break of which can trigger fresh advances targeting 0.6400.
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