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Forex News Timeline

Tuesday, November 20, 2018

"The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.5 percent on November 20, down fro

"The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.5 percent on November 20, down from 2.8 percent on November 15," the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta reported on Tuesday. "The nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.06 percentage points to -0.16 percentage points after yesterday morning's industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. The nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth fell from -2.6 percent to -6.3 percent after this morning's new residential construction release from the U.S. Census Bureau."

The current risk-off tone in the global markets is forcing the barrel of the WTI to trade in the lower end of the recent range below the $56.00 mark.

Prices of the WTI trade in red figures below the $56.00 mark.Over supply concerns keep weighing on traders’ sentiment.The API weekly report on crude oil inventories is coming up next.The current risk-off tone in the global markets is forcing the barrel of the WTI to trade in the lower end of the recent range below the $56.00 mark.WTI looks to data, OPEC+Prices of the barrel of the American reference for the sweet light crude oil are fading the recent bullish attempt and have returned to the sub-$56.00 area, threatening to revisit recent YTD lows. The barrel of WTI stays under pressure in response to the re-emergence of the risk aversion among traders, while concerns over rising supply in the US oil market have been also collaborating with the down move. On another direction, traders remain vigilant on recent rumours surrounding the possibility of further output cuts to be announced at the upcoming OPEC meeting. Later in the session, the API will report on US crude oil inventories ahead of tomorrow’s weekly publication from the DoE.WTI significant levelsAt the moment the barrel of WTI is losing 3.22% at $55.33 facing immediate support at $54.76 (2018 low Nov.14) seconded by $54.54 (monthly high Sep.28 2017) and then $48.92 (monthly low Oct.6 2017). On the flip side, a breakout of $57.80 (10-day SMA) would open the door to $61.59 (21-day SMA) and finally $67.85 (high Oct.29).

After suffering heavy losses on Monday, major equity indexes in the U.S. started the second day of the week sharply lower. The European stocks are als

Consumer discretionary leads losses in early trade.Crude oil sell-off weighs on energy.Kudlow comments fail to help market sentiment improve.After suffering heavy losses on Monday, major equity indexes in the U.S. started the second day of the week sharply lower. The European stocks are also posting large losses to reflect the weak appetite for risky assets on Tuesday. As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.6% on the day at 24,623.40 points while the S&P 500 was losing 1.2% and the Nasdaq Composite was down 1.62% at 6,535.04 points. Disappointing holiday season forecasts from big retailers on Tuesday weighed on the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index, which opened the day 2.2% lower. Additionally, a more than 2% fall seen in crude oil prices pulled the S&P 500 Energy Index lower at the opening. The only sector that was in the positive territory at the time of press was the defensive S&P 500 Utilities Index. Meanwhile, Larry Kudlow, White House economic adviser and the director of the National Economic Council, said that President Trump was optimistic regarding trade negotiations between the U.S. and China and added that very detailed talks with Chinese officials were ongoing "on all levels." Nevertheless, the trade-related S&P 500 Industrials failed to take advantage of these comments and was last seen down 1.7% on the day.

New Zealand GDT Price Index: -3.5% vs previous -2%

Additional comments from Larry Kudlow, White House economic adviser and the director of the National Economic Council, continue to cross the wires. K

Additional comments from Larry Kudlow, White House economic adviser and the director of the National Economic Council, continue to cross the wires.Key quotes (via Reuters)Next phase of tax reform won’t happen in 2018, may happen next year.

The pick up in the demand for the Japanese safe haven has been weighing on GBP/JPY in past sessions, dragging to test fresh 3-week lows in the vicinit

The cross losses further momentum and tests the 144.00 area.Uncertainty around Brexit keeps weighing on the British Pound.Some risk-off mood lends fresh oxygen to the Japanese Yen. The pick up in the demand for the Japanese safe haven has been weighing on GBP/JPY in past sessions, dragging to test fresh 3-week lows in the vicinity of the 144.00 handle during early trade.GBP/JPY looks to Brexit, risk-trendThe sharp decline in yields of the key US 10-year note are fuelling the demand for the Japanese safe haven currency, in turn lending extra sustain to the ongoing leg lower in the cross. In addition, the lack of progress in the UK-EU negotiations on Brexit has been also collaborating with the selling mood surrounding the Sterling and therefore adding to the multi-week retracement in the cross. Nothing worth mentioning from today’s BoE event, where Governor M.Carney noted that a ‘no-deal’ scenario would be very unusual. Still in the UK, PM Theresa may is expected to meet EU J.C.Juncker tomorrow in Brussels to discuss trade.GBP/JPY key levelsAs the moment the cross is losing 0.16% at 144.49 facing the next support at 144.07 (low Nov.20) seconded by 143.76 (low Jun.28) and finally 143.21 (2018 low May 29). On the other hand, a break above 146.00 (21-day SMA) would expose 147.15 (200-day SMA) and then 149.49 (monthly high Nov.8).

The AUD/USD came under a heavy selling pressure in the early European morning and fell to a fresh 3-day low at 0.7250 before staging a modest rebound.

RBA's Lowe says the overall economic picture is positive.Concerns over a slowdown in China's economy weigh on AUD.US Dollar Index continues to recover yesterday's losses.The AUD/USD came under a heavy selling pressure in the early European morning and fell to a fresh 3-day low at 0.7250 before staging a modest rebound. However, with the greenback gathering strength against its rivals in the NA session, the pair failed to extend its recovery move and was last seen trading at 0.7260, losing 0.45% on a daily basis. Earlier today, while speaking at the CEDA Annual Dinner in Melbourne, RBA Governor Philip Lowes said that the overall economic picture was positive and that they were moving closer to full employment. Nevertheless, the AUD failed to take advantage of these positive remarks amid concerns over the economic slowdown in Australia's biggest trading partner, China. Chinese Finance Ministry official Tan Long today said that the economic uncertainties and the downward pressure on the economy had both increased. On the other hand, with major European currencies staying under pressure amid the never-ending political jitters surrounding the UK and Italy, the US Dollar Index gained traction on Tuesday to make it difficult for the pair to reverse its direction. At the moment, the DXY is up 0.35% on the day at 96.50. Meanwhile, today's data from the U.S. showed that housing starts increased 1.5% in October following September's 5.5% decline to provide an additional boost to the buck.Technical levels to considerThe initial support for the pair aligns at 0.7250 (daily low) ahead of 0.7220 (100-DMA/20-DMA) and 0.7185 (Nov. 14 low). On the upside, resistances are located at 0.7300 (psychological level/daily high), 0.7340 (Nov. 16 high) and 0.7380 (Aug. 21 high).  

Larry Kudlow, White House economic adviser and the director of the National Economic Council, has recently crossed the wires saying that very detailed

Larry Kudlow, White House economic adviser and the director of the National Economic Council, has recently crossed the wires saying that very detailed talks were ongoing with China on all levels.Key quotes (via Reuters)Trump has optimistic view on US-China talks. Trump wants a deal that’s in US' interest. Trump believes China would like to have a deal. Corrections on stock market come and go.

   •  The pair's intraday up-move picked up the pace during the early North-American session, with bulls pushing it through and further beyond 1.3200

   •  The pair's intraday up-move picked up the pace during the early North-American session, with bulls pushing it through and further beyond 1.3200 handle.    •  A decisive move beyond 100/200-hour SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last week's slide was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders.   •  Technical indicators on the 1-hourly chart have already started gaining positive momentum and support prospects for further intraday up-move.   •  A follow-through buying beyond 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level will add credence to constructive outlook and set the stage for a retest of multi-month tops.
 USD/CAD 1-hourly chartUSD/CAD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.3212
    Daily change: 35 pips
    Daily change: 0.266%
    Daily Open: 1.3177
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.3143
    Daily SMA50: 1.3045
    Daily SMA100: 1.3068
    Daily SMA200: 1.297
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.3202
    Daily Low: 1.3142
    Weekly High: 1.3264
    Weekly Low: 1.3127
    Monthly High: 1.3172
    Monthly Low: 1.2783
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3179
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3165
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.3145
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.3113
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.3084
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3206
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3235
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3267  

Belgium Consumer Confidence Index fell from previous 1 to -1 in November

United States Redbook index (YoY) up to 6.2% in November 16 from previous 6.1%

United States Redbook index (MoM) remains unchanged at 0.2% in November 16

   •  The global flight to safety continues to underpin JPY’s safe-haven status.    •  Bearish traders seemed rather unaffected by a goodish USD rebo

   •  The global flight to safety continues to underpin JPY’s safe-haven status.
   •  Bearish traders seemed rather unaffected by a goodish USD rebound.
   •  Today’s mostly in-line US housing market data does little to lend support.
The USD/JPY pair held on to its offered tone through the early North-American session and dropped to fresh three-week lows in the last hour. The pair extended last week's sharp retracement slide from over one-month tops and remained under some heavy selling pressure for the third consecutive session on Tuesday. After overnight steep falls on Wall Street, growing concerns over the economic impact of the US-China trade conflicts added to risk-off sentiment in global financial markets and underpinned the Japanese Yen's safe-haven status.  The global flight to safety was evident from the ongoing slide in the US Treasury bond yields, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury notes hovering near seven-week lows, and was eventually exerting downward pressure on the major. Bearish traders seemed rather unaffected by a goodish rebound in the US Dollar, which remained supported by today's mostly in-line US housing market data - building permits and housing starts.  "The increase in US housing starts suggests that construction companies are finding good demand and that a strong labor market and rising wages are partially compensating for ever higher selling prices and mortgage costs," Joseph Trevisani, Senior Analyst at FXStreet noted after the report was made public this Tuesday.Technical outlookValeria Bednarik, FXStreet's own American Chief Analyst writes: “Technically, the 4 hours chart shows that the pair is developing below all of its moving averages, while technical indicators remain near oversold territory, lacking directional strength, leaning the risk to the downside. The 100 DMA, at around 112.00 is a line in the sand, as bulls will give up on a break below the psychological threshold, leading to a steeper decline ahead.”
 

According to analysts at Nordea Markets, it is still too early to expect a further rebound in the AUD (technically, an AUD/USD short looks compelling

According to analysts at Nordea Markets, it is still too early to expect a further rebound in the AUD (technically, an AUD/USD short looks compelling from just below 0.73).Key Quotes“The AUD has been a lagged “slave” of the fortunes of the Asian currencies for a while and while both AUD and NZD could prove to be solid bets versus the USD in case the wobblier Fed comments continue, we choose to bet on further AUD downside versus NZD.” “Even in a reflationary comeback scenario, driven by a widespread undermined USD, we argue that NZD will outpace AUD due to squaring of the current positioning (NZD more hated than AUD by spec-accounts).”

"Responses to the November Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that nonmanufacturing activity in the region continued to expand," the Fed

"Responses to the November Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that nonmanufacturing activity in the region continued to expand," the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia announced on Tuesday and added: "The diffusion index for current general activity at the firm level increased 5 points in November to 42.4."Key takeaways from the press releaseNearly 55 percent of the firms reported increases in activity, compared with 13 percent that reported decreases.  The new orders index rebounded from its sharp decrease last month, rising 20 points to 28.2.  The full-time employment index fell from 16.6 in October to 10.3 in November. The prices paid index rose 22 points to 37.5, an all-time high for the series. Nearly 38 percent of the respondents reported increases in input prices, while no firms reported decreases. The diffusion index for future activity at the firm level increased 10 points to 53.6.

The United Arab Emirates' OPEC envoy recently crossed the wires saying that there was an initial agreement to cut crude oil production and added that

The United Arab Emirates' OPEC envoy recently crossed the wires saying that there was an initial agreement to cut crude oil production and added that they haven't decided on the amount yet.Key quotes (via Reuters)Technical committee at OPEC still studying markets, will share final conclusions before Vienna meeting. Very like OPEC will reduce production compared to previous period.

EUR/USD 4-hour chart EUR/USD is trading back below the 200-period simple moving average on the 4-hour chart.  The 1.1450 resistance is a tough nut

EUR/USD 4-hour chartEUR/USD is trading back below the 200-period simple moving average on the 4-hour chart. The 1.1450 resistance is a tough nut to crack as the market is having difficulty to break above the November highs. Any rally should be limited below that level.The next main target to the downside is likely at the 1.1350 level. Additional levels at a glance:
  EUR/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.1419
    Daily change: -33 pips
    Daily change: -0.288%
    Daily Open: 1.1452
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.1374
    Daily SMA50: 1.1509
    Daily SMA100: 1.1561
    Daily SMA200: 1.1811
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.1466
    Daily Low: 1.1394
    Weekly High: 1.142
    Weekly Low: 1.1216
    Monthly High: 1.1625
    Monthly Low: 1.1302
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1438
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1421
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1409
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1365
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1336
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1481
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1509
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1553  

The European Central Bank (ECB) Banking Supervision Head Danièle Nouy is out on the wires now, delivering the key quotes found below. Geopolitical

The European Central Bank (ECB) Banking Supervision Head Danièle Nouy is out on the wires now, delivering the key quotes found below. Geopolitical risks have intensified. The profitability of euro area significant institutions remains subdued. Recent increase in sovereign bond yields in one country is an unwelcome development.

"Privately‐owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,228,000.  This is 1.5 percent above the revised September es

"Privately‐owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,228,000.  This is 1.5 percent above the revised September estimate of 1,210,000, but is 2.9 percent below the October 2017 rate of 1,265,000,"  The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced on Tuesday.Key takeaways from the press releasePrivately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,263,000.  This is 0.6 percent below the revised September rate of 1,270,000 and is 6.0 percent below the October 2017 rate of 1,343,000.   Privately‐owned housing completions in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,111,000.  This is 3.3 percent below the revised September estimate of 1,149,000 and  s 6.5 percent below the October 2017 rate of 1,188,000. 

United States Building Permits (MoM) below forecasts (1.267M) in October: Actual (1.263M)

United States Building Permits Change unchanged at -0.6% in October

United States Housing Starts (MoM) above forecasts (1.225M) in October: Actual (1.228M)

United States Housing Starts Change rose from previous -5.3% to 1.5% in October

Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, points out that on a 1 day view the USD is the worst performing G10 currency and over the past 5 days, t

Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, points out that on a 1 day view the USD is the worst performing G10 currency and over the past 5 days, the USD has fared second worst after the beleaguered pound. Key Quotes“In recent days the outlook for the greenback has been undermined by concerns that the market may have become too optimistic regarding the outlook for US growth and rates.  While this may be true, risks to the outlook for both risky assets and the EUR suggest that the USD may still remain relatively well supported through 2019 and potentially beyond.” “A fresh poll released by Reuters is suggesting that economists are now attributing a 35% chance of a US recession over the next two years, up from 30% in the previous survey.” “Slowing US growth, a plateauing of Fed interest rates and the likelihood that investors will be paying more attention to the surging US budget deficit all suggest that the environment for the USD is likely to sour next year. However, a backdrop of slower world growth and US/Sino trade wars suggests that pressure on EM assets will remain.” “In addition, slower growth in the Eurozone combined with political risk in the form of populist pressures all suggest that investors are likely to maintain long USD positions, though in this environment the JPY and the CHF could outperform.” “Although there will be some exceptions, the downside risks to growth from trade wars is likely to keep risky assets under pressure and this is likely to ensure some support for the USD.” “On balance we see only limited scope for the EUR to recover ground vs. the USD next year.  We continue to see scope for a move towards EUR/USD1.12 in H1 2019 followed by a slow creep back towards 1.14 on a 12 mth view.”  

"Good exchange w/ ministers on occasion of 50th EEA Council. Shared goal of working towards orderly withdrawal of UK from EU/EEA. Will pursue close di

"Good exchange w/ ministers on occasion of 50th EEA Council. Shared goal of working towards orderly withdrawal of UK from EU/EEA. Will pursue close dialogue on basis of draft agreement, eg to secure life choices of EU & EEA citizens.​​​​​​​ Integrity of single market is common priority," the EU's Chief Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier recently tweeted out.

Analysts at Nordea Markets suggest that last week, they have found the market optimism surrounding a Brexit deal too stretched and after a week later

Analysts at Nordea Markets suggest that last week, they have found the market optimism surrounding a Brexit deal too stretched and after a week later there is no whatsoever majority in favour of Mays Brexit draft deal.Key Quotes“Judged by the risk reversal, EUR/GBP could be headed as high as 0.91-0.92, if the full risk of a new Brexiteer-PM is priced in. We stay long EUR/GBP, as we consider Theresa May doomed.”“There is no majority in favour of anything in the House of Commons, meaning that it is ultimately very hard to imagine any progress being made without a shakeup of the current composition of mandates. New elections are unavoidable.”

The UK PM spokesman, James Slack was out on the wires in the last hour, saying that Brexit discussion in Cabinet was constructive and the Cabinet is u

The UK PM spokesman, James Slack was out on the wires in the last hour, saying that Brexit discussion in Cabinet was constructive and the Cabinet is united in search of the best Brexit deal.Additional quotes:   •  Cabinet discussion on Brexit was focused on the future framework and not on withdrawal agreement.
   •  PM May will meet with Scotland's Sturgeon later on in the day.
   •  May-Juncker meeting tomorrow is part of the negotiation process.
   •  Meeting tomorrow not expected to lead to the publication of Brexit documentation.

After closing the first day of the week with a 75-pip loss, the USD/CHF pair struggles to find direction on Tuesday and trades in a relatively tight r

US Dollar Index recovers toward mid-96s on Tuesday.Risk-aversion allows CHF to stay resilient.Coming up: US building permits and housing starts data.After closing the first day of the week with a 75-pip loss, the USD/CHF pair struggles to find direction on Tuesday and trades in a relatively tight range above the 0.99 mark. As of writing, the pair was at 0.9920, losing 15 pips on the day. Although the greenback finds demand and gathers strength on Tuesday as the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit deal and concerns over the Italian budget crisis weigh on its European rivals, the CHF stays resilient and doesn't allow the pair to gain traction. The dominant risk-off mood as reflected by the sharp fall witnessed in European equity indexes helps the CHF preserve its strength. At the moment, both the Euro Stoxx 50 and German DAX 30 indexes are losing over 1%. Later in the session, housing starts and building permits data will be released from the U.S. However, investors are likely to pay close attention to Wall Street, which seems to be set to open the day in the negative territory. Ahead of the data, the US Dollar Index is up 0.2% on the day at 96.35.Technical levels to considerThe pair could face the first support at 0.9875 (100-DMA/200-DMA) ahead of 0.9800 (Sep. 30 low) and 0.9740 (Sep. 28 low). On the upside, resistances align at 1.0000 (psychological level/parity), 1.0030 (20-DMA) and 1.0085 (nov. 16 low).

   •  Widening Italian-German bond yields exert fresh downward pressure on the EUR.    •  Goodish USD rebound from near two-week lows adds to the dow

   •  Widening Italian-German bond yields exert fresh downward pressure on the EUR.
   •  Goodish USD rebound from near two-week lows adds to the downward momentum.
The EUR/USD pair extended its retracement slide from near two-week tops and has now eroded a major part of previous session up-move. The pair stalled its recent goodish recovery move from YTD lows and met with some aggressive supply after hitting an intraday high level of 1.1472, snapping five consecutive days of winning streak.  Growing concerns about Italy's fiscal health, reinforced by widening Italy-German bond yields, turned out to be one of the key factors prompting some fresh selling around the shared currency. Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst explains: “Markets are reacting to the ongoing standoff between Italy and the European Commission over the Italian budget. Rome insists on a 2.4% budget deficit while Brussels demands 2%. The ball is now in the European court: the EC is expected to respond to Italy's response to the rejection of the budget. They may consider disciplinary action.” Adding to this, the recent US Dollar bearish pressure, triggered by the Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida's dovish comments on Friday, now seems to have receded and further collaborated to the pair's intraday slide of nearly 60-pips. Meanwhile, the latest leg of a sudden fall over the past hour or so could also be attributed to some cross-driven weakness, stemming out of a goodish fall in the EUR/JPY cross amid the global flight to safety, which tends to underpin the Japanese Yen's safe-haven status. Currently trading around the 1.1420-15 region, traders now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the release of housing market data, in order to catch some short-term momentum play.Technical outlookAccording to Yohay Elam, “1.1395 held the pair down in mid-November and was a swing low earlier in the month. The former double-bottom of 1.1300 is next down the line.” “Looking up, 1.1470 was the high earlier in the day. 1.1500 was the high point in November. 1.1550 and 1.1620 were high points when the trended lower in October,” he added further.
 

Russia Producer Price Index (YoY): 16.9% (October) vs 14.4%

Russia Unemployment Rate in line with expectations (4.7%) in October

Russia Producer Price Index (MoM) up to 3.3% in October from previous 1.3%

The Norwegian currency is now trading within a sideline theme vs. its European peer, taking EUR/NOK to the area of 2-month tops beyond 9.7100 the figu

The Norwegian Krone trades flat around the 9.71 area vs. EUR.The cross keeps the bid tone intact beyond the 9.70 level.NOK stays vigilant on oil and domestic data.The Norwegian currency is now trading within a sideline theme vs. its European peer, taking EUR/NOK to the area of 2-month tops beyond 9.7100 the figure.EUR/NOK looks to oil-dynamicsThe cross is extending the rally so far today, entering its sixth consecutive week with gains and trading above the 9.70 area, levels last seen in mid-September. The sharp sell off in crude oil have forced the barrel of European reference Brent crude to shed more than 25% from tops in early October to last week’s troughs in the $64.60 region, in turn sparking a strong rebound in the cross from the 9.4000 region. However, and banning the recent and temporary results from GDP and domestic inflation, the solid fundamentals of the Scandinavian economy and the prospects of further rate hikes by the Norges Bank in the next months hint at the likeliness that further gains remain in the pipeline for the Krone. In opinion of Analysts at Danske Bank: “With rising wages and strong employment growth set to continue, we therefore still pencil in two rate hikes per year from Norges Bank. We think the balance of risk is skewed towards three hikes, not one, in 2019”. Looking ahead, crude oil dynamics should continue to drive the mood around NOK in the near term. Data wise, unemployment figures for the month of September are only due this week (Wednesday).EUR/NOK significant levelsAs of writing the cross is down 0.01% at 9.7118 and a breakdown of 9.6069 (10-day SMA) would open the door to 9.5688 (200-day SMA) and then 9.5006 (low Nov.8). On the other hand, the next up barrier aligns at 9.7219 (high Nov.19) seconded by 9.7806 (high Aug.28) and finally 9.8079 (high Sep.7).

German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, in an interview with Bloomberg Television this Tuesday, said that a disorderly Brexit would have “no winner” and

German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, in an interview with Bloomberg Television this Tuesday, said that a disorderly Brexit would have “no winner” and called on the UK Prime Minister Theresa May to secure parliamentary backing for the deal with the European Union. Scholz, also serving as vice chancellor, clearly indicated that renegotiating the proposed accord isn’t on the table and signalled a united front in the German government to put pressure on May to round up support at home.

   •  The cross reversed a dip to the 144.00 neighborhood, or fresh monthly lows, and rallied around 85-pips, albeit struggled to build on the momentu

   •  The cross reversed a dip to the 144.00 neighborhood, or fresh monthly lows, and rallied around 85-pips, albeit struggled to build on the momentum beyond 50-hour SMA.    •  Currently hovering around mid-144.00, the cross has been oscillating in a trading range held since the US trading session on Thursday, forming a rectangle on hourly charts.   •  Given that the cross has been struggling to register any meaningful recovery, the rectangular formation might be categorized as a continuation pattern and seen as a pause in the trend.   •  Technical indicators on hourly/daily charts have also failed to recover from the bearish territory and add credence to the negative outlook amid the latest UK political turmoil/Brexit uncertainties.   •  However, it would be prudent to wait for a convincing breakthrough the mentioned range, and a follow-through selling below the 114.00 handle, before positioning for any further depreciating move.
 GBP/JPY 1-hourly chartGBP/JPY Overview:
    Last Price: 144.57
    Daily change: -6.0 pips
    Daily change: -0.0415%
    Daily Open: 144.63
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 146.05
    Daily SMA50: 147.01
    Daily SMA100: 145.84
    Daily SMA200: 147.18
Levels:
    Daily High: 145.32
    Daily Low: 144.3
    Weekly High: 148.74
    Weekly Low: 144.26
    Monthly High: 149.52
    Monthly Low: 142.78
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 144.69
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 144.93
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 144.18
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 143.72
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 143.15
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 145.2
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 145.78
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 146.23  

According to analysts at Nordea Markets, things are heating up for the NOK as a plummeting oil price and weakening consumption growth suddenly speaks

According to analysts at Nordea Markets, things are heating up for the NOK as a plummeting oil price and weakening consumption growth suddenly speaks in favour of a downwards revision of the rate path by Norges Bank in December.Key Quotes“Just a month ago several factors argued in favour of a hawkish December path.”“The list of potential NOK negatives has though started to evolve at a worrisome speed in recent weeks. The oil price now indicates as much as 10% downside risk for the NOK, but the plummeting oil price is not the only factor weighing on the NOK short term.”“Usually the structural liquidity tide turns right about now, meaning that the Norwegian commercial banking system will be flooded with cheap NOK liquidity over year-turn (this year at least 10bn NOK will flow in to the system from now and until New Year). Norge’s Bank allows cheap NOK liquidity to prevent a skyrocketing NIBOR/OIS spread due to an expensive USD over year-turn. This is an underappreciated driver of the sluggish December NOK seasonality.”“The housing market is another renewed concern for the NOK. The inventory-to-sales ratio on the Norwegian housing market has rolled over recently, which usually hints at an upcoming weaker trend in the yearly house price trend. Currently the inventory-to-sales ratio points to roughly unchanged house prices year on year (compared to the current 2.5% pace).”“Broader trends in EUR/NOK and Norwegian house prices usually go hand in hand (likely driven by an exogenous factor). The NOK has recently traded slightly on the expensive side of the housing market developments. A recoupling of trends should lead EUR/NOK higher.”“We go long EUR/NOK and target at least a move to 9.80 before year-end but don’t rule out a move of >5% over the next 1-1.5 months.”  

During the November Inflation Report parliamentary hearing, the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said on the UK labor market and wages: Bank of

During the November Inflation Report parliamentary hearing, the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said on the UK labor market and wages: Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said expects wage growth to continue gradual improvement. Carney said financial markets have been pricing in some possibility of hard Brexit shock. Carney said he expects further labor market tightening with wages rising further pressing on inflation. 

   •  A goodish pickup in the USD demand helps reverse an early dip.    •  Subdued oil price action does little to influence the Loonie.    •  Trade

   •  A goodish pickup in the USD demand helps reverse an early dip.
   •  Subdued oil price action does little to influence the Loonie.
   •  Traders eye US housing market data for some short-term impetus.
The USD/CAD pair reversed an early dip to 1.3155 area and turned higher for the second consecutive session, albeit remained well below overnight swing high. The US Dollar reversed an early dip to near two-week lows and was seen as one of the key factors behind the pair's sudden uptick since the early European trading session.  With investors looking past last week's dovish sounding comments by the Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida, a fresh wave of global risk-aversion trade was seen boosting the greenback relative safe-haven appeal against its Canadian counterpart.  Meanwhile, a subdued price action around oil market did little to influence demand for the commodity-linked currency - Loonie, with the USD price dynamics turning out to be an exclusive driver of the pair's momentum on Tuesday. Moving ahead, traders now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the release of housing market data, for some short-term impetus ahead of a scheduled speech by the BoC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins, later during the US trading session.Technical levels to watchThe 1.3200 handle might continue to act as an immediate resistance, above which the pair is likely to aim towards challenging the 1.3250-60 heavy supply zone. On the flip side, the 1.3150-40 region now seems to have emerged as an immediate support, which if broken is likely to accelerate the fall towards the 1.3100 handle.
 

The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney's latest comments from the parliamentary hearing of the November Inflation Report: BOE's Carney says there w

The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney's latest comments from the parliamentary hearing of the November Inflation Report:   BOE's Carney said there would be the economic shock in Europe, particularly Ireland, in no-deal Brexit. BOE's Carney said we've seen movements in Sterling but also bank equity prices during talk of no-deal Brexit. BOE's Carney said some capital and workers could be stranded as firms adjust to no deal scenario. BOE's Carney said being prepared for no deal Brexit is not the same as saying everything will be alright. BOE's Carney said no deal Brexit risk uncomfortably high. BOE's Carney said my personal judgment is that there's is more downside to business investment from no-deal Brexit than upside if there's a deal.

In an official statement released this Tuesday, the EU stated that it is aware of Spain’s concerns on the Brexit text and is working on it.  Key poin

In an official statement released this Tuesday, the EU stated that it is aware of Spain’s concerns on the Brexit text and is working on it. Key points:   •  Cites issues raised by Spain on the text are covered by the mandate.
   •  EU is working closely with all member states on Brexit.
   •  Negotiations with EU states underway on the political declaration.

According to analysts at TD Securities US housing starts is going to be the key economic release for today’s US session. Key Quotes “Housing starts

According to analysts at TD Securities US housing starts is going to be the key economic release for today’s US session.Key Quotes“Housing starts are expected to see a modest recovery in October with the market consensus predicting a 1.8% increase to a 1.225m pace while permits are projected to edge lower by 0.8% m/m to 1.26m units.”

DXY daily chart                       Dollar Index Spot Overview:     Last Price: 96.28     Daily change: 9.0 pips     Daily change

The index is recovering the smile on Tuesday following a multi-session decline to the vicinity of the key 96.00 handle and at the same time challenging the key short-term support line near 96.20.The greenback remains vulnerable, although the 96.00 neighbourhood is expected to hold the initial test. In this area converges early October highs and the 50% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop.Looking up, the 21-day SMA at 96.60 emerges as the initial hurdle ahead of the 10-day SMA at 96.71, considered the last defence of a visit to YTD peaks near 97.70 (November 12).DXY daily chart                      Dollar Index Spot Overview:
    Last Price: 96.28
    Daily change: 9.0 pips
    Daily change: 0.0936%
    Daily Open: 96.19
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 96.64
    Daily SMA50: 95.72
    Daily SMA100: 95.39
    Daily SMA200: 93.56
Levels:
    Daily High: 96.57
    Daily Low: 96.11
    Weekly High: 97.7
    Weekly Low: 96.4
    Monthly High: 97.2
    Monthly Low: 94.79
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 96.29
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 96.39
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 96.01
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 95.83
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 95.55
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 96.47
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 96.75
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 96.93  

German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz crossed the wires in the last hour, saying that Euro-area budget concept is backed across the EU and Italy must de

German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz crossed the wires in the last hour, saying that Euro-area budget concept is backed across the EU and Italy must deal with the reality of Euro-area rules.

After climbing as high as the 0.8920 region in early trade, EUR/GBP came under renewed pressure and is now testing fresh lows near the 0.8880 region.

The cross comes under pressure on GBP strength.BoE’s Carney said Brexit ‘no-deal’ would be unusual situation.BoE’s Haldane noted Brexit could weigh on Q4 GDP.After climbing as high as the 0.8920 region in early trade, EUR/GBP came under renewed pressure and is now testing fresh lows near the 0.8880 region.EUR/GBP focused on BoE, BrexitVolatility in the British Pound continues to affect the European cross and is now dragging it to the area of daily lows near 0.8880. After three consecutive daily advances, the cross is now finding some resistance to advance further north of the 0.8900 handle, always looking to Brexit headlines as the almost exclusive driver of the price action. Regarding the BoE’s event, Governor M.Carney noted a ‘no-deal’ scenario would be a very unusual situation, adding that the implied volatility around the Sterling remains very high. In addition, BoE’s Chief Economist A.Haldane, said that uncertainty around a ‘no deal’ is having an impact on businesses, while he expects weaker data in Q4.EUR/GBP key levelsThe cross is now losing 0.31% at 0.8882 and a breach of 0.8868 (low Nov.19) would aim for 0.8834 (200-day SMA) and finally 0.8655 (low Nov.13). On the other hand, the next up barrier is located at 0.8929 (high Nov.19) seconded by 0.8941 (high Oct.31) and then 0.9001 (high Sep.24).

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that the BoC’ s Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins will speak on public policy issues surrounding monetary policy framew

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that the BoC’ s Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins will speak on public policy issues surrounding monetary policy frameworks and will be a key event for today’s session.Key Quotes“Wilkins speech is likely to echo recent comments made by Governor Poloz but markets will nonetheless be keenly focused on any mention of the near-term outlook after dropping "gradual" in October. Likewise, an emphasis on fiscal policy would elevate the importance of Wednesday's fiscal update.”  

Spain 9-Month Letras Auction declined to -0.349% from previous -0.311%

United Kingdom CBI Industrial Trends Survey - Orders (MoM) came in at 10, above expectations (-7) in November

According to analysts at Nordea Markets, despite an inflation disappointment in Sweden in the past week, the SEK has fared well.  Key Quotes “Usuall

According to analysts at Nordea Markets, despite an inflation disappointment in Sweden in the past week, the SEK has fared well. Key Quotes“Usually, when CPIF inflation disappoints by 0.2pp on the month it causes or coincides with a ~4% weakening of the trade-weighted SEK.” “Moreover, the Swedish economic surprise index is firmly in negative territory. This usually indicates that a weaker SEK is on the cards.” “Sell-on-rallies does however seem to be the name of the game for the EUR/SEK though. Why? Maybe market participants have concluded that the worse the outlook, the more likely a December hike becomes as it’s now or never!” “Aside from weaker inflation, weaker macro, downside risks to domestic and global growth, the risks for greater volatility, risks (chances?) of a new election, ongoing QE-flows (while ECB is set to stop QE), an already well-priced December rate hike (16/25bp), we can add PPM flows as a SEK-negative in coming weeks.” “More often than not EUR/SEK tends to glide higher ahead of the start of the PPM flows(which we have assumed to be December 10 for now).”

During the November Inflation Report parliamentary hearing, the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney was asked if he would vote to hike or cut rates a

During the November Inflation Report parliamentary hearing, the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney was asked if he would vote to hike or cut rates after a no deal Brexit. BOE's Carney said it depends. BOE's Carney said no-deal Brexit would be a very unusual situation. BOE's Carney said would have to go back to the 70s to find a comparable situation. BOE's Carney said starting position of UK economy is very different to how it was at the time of the Brexit referendum.

Spain 3-Month Letras Auction increased to -0.604% from previous -0.649%

The Ifo Institute expects a further increase in the US current account deficit, despite the introduction of tariffs by US President Donald Trump. The

The Ifo Institute expects a further increase in the US current account deficit, despite the introduction of tariffs by US President Donald Trump. The US current account deficit is expected to total 464 billion US Dollars in 2018, or 2.5% of annual economic output, according to projections calculated by the Ifo Institute based on mid-year figures on the occasion of the annual conference of the EconPol research network. Last year the US current account deficit amounted to 449 billion US Dollars or a 2.3% deficit. The US current account balance with the EU for the first half of 2018, by contrast, reveals a small surplus of 7 billion US Dollars as in previous years. It is striking that the USA generates high profits from investments in the EU, especially in the Netherlands and Ireland. The USA is running a particularly high current account deficit with China, which amounted to 176 billion US Dollars in the first half of 2018 alone. The US deficit with Mexico (45 billion US Dollars) and Japan (40 billion US Dollars) was also far higher than its deficit with the euro area in the first half of 2018. The US deficit is primarily due to trade in goods. The value of US imports in 2018 will exceed that of its exports by 857 billion US Dollars in 2018. Surpluses of 259 billion US dollars from services and over 252 billion US Dollars from foreign assets can be offset against this figure. Transfer payments abroad for international cooperation, for example, increased the deficit by 119 billion US Dollars. At the other end of the scale, the USA ran current account surpluses with Britain (32 billion US Dollars), Hong Kong (20 billion US Dollars), Brazil (17 billion US Dollars) and Canada (11 billion US Dollars) in the first half of 2018.

More comments flowing in from the BOE Governor Mark Carney, via Reuters, as he now speaks on the Sterling. The expectation of the market is that ster

More comments flowing in from the BOE Governor Mark Carney, via Reuters, as he now speaks on the Sterling. The expectation of the market is that sterling will continue to be volatile for the next month. Implied volatility in Sterling is very high. No-deal Brexit would be a very unusual situation. The starting position of UK economy is very different from the time of the referendum. Would have to go back to the 70s to find a comparable situation. BOE's response to a no-deal on whether to hike or cut rates would depend. The policy will depend on the balance of supply, demand, FX.

The BOE Chief Economist Andy Haldane tells the Treasury Select Committee (TSC) that the uncertainties of a no-deal outcome are having an impact on the

The BOE Chief Economist Andy Haldane tells the Treasury Select Committee (TSC) that the uncertainties of a no-deal outcome are having an impact on the businesses.Additional Headlines:Brexit uncertainty could make for a weaker Q4. November forecasts remain the best guess on the economy. Seeing a greater Brexit impact on behavior of companies.

BOE deputy governor Jon Cunliffe: is now testifying before the British Parliament’s Treasury Select Committee, with the key comments found below. Out

BOE deputy governor Jon Cunliffe: is now testifying before the British Parliament’s Treasury Select Committee, with the key comments found below. Output surveys point to subdued activity in the near-term. Outlook of course will be materially affected by Brexit outcome. Strong Q3 growth probably reflects a recovery of weakness. But does not contain much information about the future. Forward-looking indicators are largely reflecting Brexit uncertainties. Expects gradual tightening of policy.

Reuters reports the latest comments by the BOE policymaker Michael Saunders, delivered during his testimony on the inflation report hearings. Key Poi

Reuters reports the latest comments by the BOE policymaker Michael Saunders, delivered during his testimony on the inflation report hearings.Key Points:Likely Q4 economic growth will slow following strong Q3 gain. Perhaps Q1 2019 growth will also slow. Monetary policy implications of Brexit outcome could go either way. Agrees with BOE's broad outlook for interest rates, conditioned on Brexit assumptions.

The Bank of England (BOE) Governor Mark Carney is on the wires now, via Reuters, testifying on the inflation report before the Treasury Select Committ

The Bank of England (BOE) Governor Mark Carney is on the wires now, via Reuters, testifying on the inflation report before the Treasury Select Committee (TSC).Key Headlines:Central bank forecasts assume a smooth Brexit transition. BOE not intending to provide additional analysis of a no-deal Brexit scenario. MPC will look at a scenario related to the withdrawal agreement. A withdrawal agreement would support the UK economy. MPC is working through Brexit scenarios on an accelerated timeline.

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), remains under pressure and close to the 96.00 area despite the ongoing bounce off lows. US Doll

The index recovers ground lost after dropping near 96.00.Yields of the US 10-year note tested sub-3.05% levels.US Housing Starts, Building Permits next on tap in the docket.The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), remains under pressure and close to the 96.00 area despite the ongoing bounce off lows.US Dollar Index looks to data, BrexitAfter five consecutive sessions with losses, the index is now giving some signs of life and manages to rebound from recent lows in the vicinity of the 96.00 area to the 96.25/30 band. The Dollar stays vulnerable so far this week and is looking to revert the recent negative streak following 2018 peaks around 97.70 recorded earlier in the month (November 12). It is worth mentioning that the buck has accelerated the leg lower in response to last week’s dovish comments from Fed’s R.Clarida. In the meantime, the buck keeps looking to developments in Euroland for direction, with the Brexit negotiations and Italian politics in the centre stage for the time being.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAs of writing the index is gaining 0.14% at 96.33 and a breakout of 96.61 (21-day SMA) would open the door to 96.72 (10-day SMA) and then 97.69 (2018 high Nov.12). On the other hand, the next support emerges at 96.13 (low Nov.19) seconded by 95.68 (low Nov.7) and finally 95.67 (55-day SMA).

Reuters reports the following comments from the German Finance Minister Scholz: Eurozone budget would help stabilise Eurozone and Europe. We hope Br

Reuters reports the following comments from the German Finance Minister Scholz: Eurozone budget would help stabilise Eurozone and Europe. We hope Britain draft deal but want to ensure no economic damage for Britain and EU. It is right that in December we agree on the next big steps for Europe.

The recent bounce in WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) lost steam on Tuesday, as the bears returned to the markets amid increased fears over rising global su

Concerns over rising US supplies and risk-off action drag oil lower.Oil could retest $ 55 should the API report show a jump in the US crude stocks.The recent bounce in WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) lost steam on Tuesday, as the bears returned to the markets amid increased fears over rising global supplies, with the focus now shifting towards US weekly crude supplies report due to be published by the API later today. The US crude oil production has soared by almost 25% this year, to a record 11.7 million barrels per day (bpd). More so, the risk-off sentiment on the European markets amid global growth concerns and trade war fears collaborate to the downside in the higher-yielding oil.Further, broad-based US dollar rebound amid widespread risk-aversion on the back of a broader market sell-off, further weighed down on the USD-sensitive oil.  Markets now eagerly await the US API crude inventories report due at 2030 GMT for fresh direction on the prices.WTI Technical LevelsWTI Overview:
    Last Price: 56.77
    Daily change: -59 pips
    Daily change: -1.03%
    Daily Open: 57.36
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 61.06
    Daily SMA50: 67.43
    Daily SMA100: 67.91
    Daily SMA200: 68.19
Levels:
    Daily High: 57.42
    Daily Low: 57.3
    Weekly High: 60.93
    Weekly Low: 55.21
    Monthly High: 76.25
    Monthly Low: 64.86
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 57.37
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 57.35
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 57.3
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 57.24
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 57.18
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 57.42
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 57.48
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 57.54  

EUR/JPY daily chart                                   EUR/JPY Overview:     Last Price: 128.5     Daily change: -38 pips     

The cross is trading in the negative territory on Tuesday, reverting part of yesterday’s advance and a 5-day positive streak.The area around 129.00 the figure remains a formidable barrier for the time being, where coincide tops seen in past weeks and the base of the daily cloud.In the meantime, another visit to October’s low in the 126.60 region remains on the cards while capped by the short-term resistance line, today at 129.37.EUR/JPY daily chart                                  EUR/JPY Overview:
    Last Price: 128.5
    Daily change: -38 pips
    Daily change: -0.295%
    Daily Open: 128.88
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 128.59
    Daily SMA50: 129.86
    Daily SMA100: 129.53
    Daily SMA200: 130.03
Levels:
    Daily High: 129.08
    Daily Low: 128.46
    Weekly High: 129.24
    Weekly Low: 127.5
    Monthly High: 132.49
    Monthly Low: 126.63
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 128.85
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 128.7
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 128.53
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 128.19
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 127.91
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 129.15
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 129.43
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 129.77  

Reuters is out with the latest headlines, citing that the UK Supreme Court refuses British government application to appeal case over whether Article

Reuters is out with the latest headlines, citing that the UK Supreme Court refuses British government application to appeal case over whether Article 50 can be unilaterally reversed. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair is seen reversing a dip to 1.2823, now trading near the midpoint of the 1.28 handle, still down -0.10% on the day.

Analysts at Rabobank note that the emerging markets have improved on the margin from the mid-October lows despite continued weakness in oil prices - c

Analysts at Rabobank note that the emerging markets have improved on the margin from the mid-October lows despite continued weakness in oil prices - calling into question recently established short positions.Key Quotes“The US is set to become a net energy exporter on a notional basis in 2019 and we suspect Trump will shift his focus from pressuring oil prices lower to achieving energy independence.” “We expect Brent to rally into the low-70s ahead of the December 6th OPEC meeting.”

The recent oil price slump may carry with it plenty of interesting effects and the first of which is that weaker oil prices may rewrite the outlook fo

The recent oil price slump may carry with it plenty of interesting effects and the first of which is that weaker oil prices may rewrite the outlook for headline inflation across the world, according to analysts at Nordea Markets.Key QuotesOil prices at these levels suggest downside risks to US energy capex sometime in early 2019.”Our leading indicators suggests plenty of more downside for global growth, and hence the Fed’s worries may intensify.”“Weaker oil prices also prompt questions relating to petrodollar flows. Oil producers will have fewer excess dollars to invest as a result of getting paid less for their oil exports. Back in 2014-2015 some market participants argued that the lack of such flows could represent a Quantitative Tightening of sorts. While we prefer to use that specific moniker for the shrinking of central bank balance sheets or to the sterilisation of excess liquidity, smaller petrodollar flows can’t be good news for risky assets. If oil prices weaken further, we can’t rule out questions relating to public finances as well as pressures on dollar pegs in for instance the gulf.”  

Greg Gibbs, Analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital, points out that the September FOMC member median projections included a fourth hike this year in

Greg Gibbs, Analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital, points out that the September FOMC member median projections included a fourth hike this year in December, three further hikes in 2019 and one more in 2020. Key Quotes“The Fed fund futures market has largely priced in a hike in December.  It is no longer quite pricing two more in 2019.” “The market largely sees a hike on 19 December as a done deal.  But there has to be some risk that the Fed holds-off in December.  They have scheduled press conferences at every meeting next year, and emphasised their capacity to move at every meeting.” “With this increased flexibility it should be more inclined to pause for more than one meeting to assess market conditions and economic reports.  If they did decide uncertainty had increased and financial conditions had tightened significantly in recent months, they could quite conceivably decide to skip a hike in December, knowing that they could hike again six weeks later on 30-January if this uncertainty proved short-lived.”

The EUR/USD pair came under aggressive selling pressure last hour and quickly eroded 40-pips to hit daily lows near 1.1425 as the Italian bond yields

Rising Italian-DE bond yields spook Italian banks, knock-off the Euro. All eyes on the US housing market indicators for near-term trading opportunities.The EUR/USD pair came under aggressive selling pressure last hour and quickly eroded 40-pips to hit daily lows near 1.1425 as the Italian bond yields spiked on renewed concerns over the Italian economic growth. The main drag on the Euro is the widening yield spread between the Italian-Germany (DE) 10-year government bonds, which now touch 335 bps. A move above 400 bps will spook the Italian banking sector and could trigger a fresh banking turmoil for Italy. Meanwhile, the risk-off trades on the European equities lifted the safe-haven US dollar from multi-day lows, further adding to the weight on the spot. More so, the sentiment around the common currency was dented by the latest ECB Watch headline, citing that the Eurozone money markets are no longer fully pricing a 10 bps ECB rate hike in 2019.Markets now look forward to the US housing data for fresh dollar trades while the European politics will continue to play a key role across the fx board.EUR/USD Technical LevelsEUR/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.1431
    Daily change: -21 pips
    Daily change: -0.183%
    Daily Open: 1.1452
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.1374
    Daily SMA50: 1.1509
    Daily SMA100: 1.1561
    Daily SMA200: 1.1811
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.1466
    Daily Low: 1.1394
    Weekly High: 1.142
    Weekly Low: 1.1216
    Monthly High: 1.1625
    Monthly Low: 1.1302
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1438
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1421
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1409
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1365
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1336
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1481
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1509
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1553  

EUR/USD daily chart                         EUR/USD Overview:     Last Price: 1.1431     Daily change: -21 pips     Daily change: 

The pair remains bid but it is struggling to extend the up move further north of the 1.1450 area on a more sustainable fashion.A break above last week’s tops and critical area in the 1.1500 neighbourhood is thus needed to extend the upside to October’s top beyond 1.1600 the figure.On the upside, the 1.1375/58 band should offer interim contention, where emerge the 21-day and 10-day SMAs, all ahead of YTD lows in the 1.1200 handle.EUR/USD daily chart                        EUR/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.1431
    Daily change: -21 pips
    Daily change: -0.183%
    Daily Open: 1.1452
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.1374
    Daily SMA50: 1.1509
    Daily SMA100: 1.1561
    Daily SMA200: 1.1811
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.1466
    Daily Low: 1.1394
    Weekly High: 1.142
    Weekly Low: 1.1216
    Monthly High: 1.1625
    Monthly Low: 1.1302
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1438
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1421
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1409
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1365
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1336
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1481
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1509
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1553  

   •  The digital currency added to last week's bearish breakthrough a two-month-old consolidative trading range and plunged to its lowest level since

   •  The digital currency added to last week's bearish breakthrough a two-month-old consolidative trading range and plunged to its lowest level since Oct. 2017.   •  A sustained weakness below the $4,725-$4,700 region was seen as a key trigger for the bearish traders and the latest leg of a sudden slump since the Asian session.   •  However, near-term oversold conditions helped recover a part of early steep losses, though seemed lacking any strong follow-through beyond $4,400 round figure mark.   •  The price action suggests that any attempted recovery is more likely to get sold into and a fall to Sept. 2017 lows, around the $2,975 region, remains a distinct possibility.
 Bitcoin daily chartBTC/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 4428.11
    Daily change: -3.1e+4 pips
    Daily change: -6.51%
    Daily Open: 4736.25
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 6081.36
    Daily SMA50: 6283.43
    Daily SMA100: 6433.24
    Daily SMA200: 6878.95
Levels:
    Daily High: 5560.48
    Daily Low: 4684.31
    Weekly High: 6383.15
    Weekly Low: 5198.31
    Monthly High: 6783.05
    Monthly Low: 6060.88
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 5019
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 5225.78
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 4426.88
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 4117.5
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 3550.7
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 5303.05
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 5869.85
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 6179.22  

Switzerland Imports (MoM) up to 18010M in October from previous 15248M

Switzerland Exports (MoM) climbed from previous 17682M to 21760M in October

The latest headlines from ECB Watch cites that the Eurozone money markets are no longer fully pricing in a 10 basis point rate hike from the ECB next

The latest headlines from ECB Watch cites that the Eurozone money markets are no longer fully pricing in a 10 basis point rate hike from the ECB next year. Meanwhile, the money market futures dated to ECB’s Dec 2019 meeting now price only a 95% chance of rate hike form 100 % on Monday.

The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny is on the wires now, via Reuters, making some remarks on the Italian bond marke

The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny is on the wires now, via Reuters, making some remarks on the Italian bond markets.Key Points:Rise in Italian government bond yields to have a very limited spillover impact. Contagion from Italy's budget plans has been very limited.

Greece Current Account (YoY) fell from previous €1.564B to €0.551B in September

Spanish PM Sanchez is on the wires now, via Reuters, expressing his take on the Brexit deal. Key Points: Spain to vote against Brexit deal if text o

Spanish PM Sanchez is on the wires now, via Reuters, expressing his take on the Brexit deal.Key Points:Spain to vote against Brexit deal if text on Gibraltar not amended. As things stand Spain will vote against Brexit deal. He will call elections when in Spain’s benefit. Budget could mean early election.

Reuters reports comments by the N. Irish DUP MP Sammy Wilson, with the key headlines found below. Not for the DUP to determine who is leader of the C

Reuters reports comments by the N. Irish DUP MP Sammy Wilson, with the key headlines found below. Not for the DUP to determine who is leader of the Conservative party, would be wrong for dup to interfere. Want to continue to work with the government to see if the deal can be changed. Last night we decided to send a message to UK PM May.

Krishen Rangasamy, Research Analyst at National Bank Financial, points out that the US housing data has been relatively weak this year as sales of bot

Krishen Rangasamy, Research Analyst at National Bank Financial, points out that the US housing data has been relatively weak this year as sales of both new and existing homes have been trending down, coinciding with the ramp up of interest rates.Key Quotes“Ditto for housing starts whose downtrend is not surprisingly hurting home builder confidence ─ the NAHB index indeed sank to a two-year low in November. Those trends look eerily similar to those observed back in 2006, or just before the U.S. housing market collapsed.” “So, should investors be concerned about the U.S. housing outlook? To be sure, a house price correction can never be ruled out, especially if, as we expect, economic growth and employment creation pace down next year. But in our view, a housing crash à la 2007-2011 is unlikely anytime soon.” “Our optimism rests on the quality of mortgage originations in recent years.”

The International Energy Agency (IEA) Chief Faith Birol is back on the wires today, noting that oil market is entering unprecedented time of uncertain

The International Energy Agency (IEA) Chief Faith Birol is back on the wires today, noting that oil market is entering unprecedented time of uncertainty. He added that it’s extremely important to have Norway as reliable oil gas supplier.

   •  The pair extended last week's retracement slide from 20-month tops and remained under some intense selling pressure for the third consecutive se

   •  The pair extended last week's retracement slide from 20-month tops and remained under some intense selling pressure for the third consecutive session on Tuesday.   •  The overnight break below 200-period SMA on the 4-hourly chart and 23.6% Fibo. retracement level of the 0.9542-1.0129 upsurge was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders.   •  Technical indicators on hourly charts are already pointing to near-term oversold conditions, though have just started gaining negative momentum on the daily chart.   •  Hence, the pair seems more likely to find some support, or consolidate, near 38.2% Fibo. level, around the 0.9900 handle, before extending the bearish trajectory.
 USD/CHF 4-hourly chartUSD/CHF Overview:
    Last Price: 0.992
    Daily change: -20 pips
    Daily change: -0.201%
    Daily Open: 0.994
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.0027
    Daily SMA50: 0.9892
    Daily SMA100: 0.9889
    Daily SMA200: 0.9797
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.0012
    Daily Low: 0.9924
    Weekly High: 1.013
    Weekly Low: 0.999
    Monthly High: 1.0096
    Monthly Low: 0.9801
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.9957
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.9978
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.9905
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.987
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.9817
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.9993
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.0046
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.0081  

The bounce in the AUD/USD pair gained traction and tested the 0.73 handle again after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Lowe sounded more u

Stages solid comeback on broad USD selling, RBA Governor Lowe’s comments.But 0.7300 appears a tough nut to crack amid China slowdown fears, IMF warnings on Australia.The bounce in the AUD/USD pair gained traction and tested the 0.73 handle again after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Lowe sounded more upbeat on a rate hike. However, the bears continued to guard the last, leaving the rates largely unchanged near 0.7290 region.RBA's Lowe: Rates will likely rise at some point if economy advances as expected The solid comeback staged by the Aussie can be mainly attributed to broad-based US dollar selling, despite the sell-off in the European equities. The USD index drops to fresh daily lows of 96.04, extending the rout into a ninth straight day. The spot continues to face strong offers at the 0.7300 levels and turns back lower, as the renewed China economic slowdown fears combined with the latest IMF warning on the Australian economy continue to weigh negatively on the Aussie.IMF: Risks to Australia's economy are "titled to the downside", RBA should keep rates lowFurther, the upside also remains capped amid expectations that the US housing indicators could see a turnaround later on Tuesday, which could offer some reprieve to the USD bulls.AUD/USD Technical LevelsAUD/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 0.7294
    Daily change: 2.0 pips
    Daily change: 0.0274%
    Daily Open: 0.7292
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.7184
    Daily SMA50: 0.7171
    Daily SMA100: 0.7256
    Daily SMA200: 0.7451
Levels:
    Daily High: 0.7327
    Daily Low: 0.7276
    Weekly High: 0.7336
    Weekly Low: 0.7164
    Monthly High: 0.724
    Monthly Low: 0.702
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7296
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7308
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.727
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7248
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7219
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.732
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7349
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7371  

GBP/USD keeps the bid tone intact so far in the first half of the week and is now appears sidelined in the 1.2860 region. GBP/USD looks to BoE, Brexi

Cable fades the uptick to 1.2880 and is now stabilizing around 1.2860.BoE’s Inflation Report Hearings, Carney’s speech next on tap.PM T.May travels to Brussels to discuss trade amidst Brexit uncertainty.GBP/USD keeps the bid tone intact so far in the first half of the week and is now appears sidelined in the 1.2860 region.GBP/USD looks to BoE, BrexitCable is up for the third session in a row on Tuesday, always following USD-dynamics and rising speculations around the Brexit negotiations. Ahead in the day, the Sterling should stay under pressure in light of the BoE’s Inflation Report Hearings and the subsequent press conference by Governor M.Carney and testimonies by MPCs Haldane, Cunliffe and Saunders. In addition, investors will closely follow the headlines from PM May’s trip to Brussels to discuss trade issues later today.GBP/USD levels to considerAs of writing, the pair is losing 0.09% at 1.2845 and a breakdown of 1.2797 (low Nov.19) would open the door to 1.2724 (low Nov.15) and finally 1.2692 (low Oct.30). On the upside, the next hurdle is located at 1.2914 (21-day SMA) seconded by 1.2930 (10-day SMA) and then 1.3074 (high Nov.14).

Reuters reports comments by the Chinese Finance Ministry official Tan Long, as he underscores downside risks to the economy. Key Points: Economic un

Reuters reports comments by the Chinese Finance Ministry official Tan Long, as he underscores downside risks to the economy.Key Points:Economic uncertainties have increased. Downward pressure to the economy has also increased.

Open interest in JPY futures markets rose by around 1.8K contracts on Monday from Friday’s final 224,978 contracts, according to flash data from CME G

Open interest in JPY futures markets rose by around 1.8K contracts on Monday from Friday’s final 224,978 contracts, according to flash data from CME Group. Volume, instead, dropped sharply by nearly 58.7K contracts reverting four consecutive builds.USD/JPY pullbacks seem limitedUSD/JPY appears to have met some contention in the mid-113.00s after being rejected from tops above 114.00 the figure seen last week. Choppy open interest allows for some consolidation near term while the sharp drop in volume hints at the probability that further declines could be shallow.

According to analysts at ABN AMRO, recent speeches by ECB president Mario Draghi signal that the ECB has become less confident about its own rather po

According to analysts at ABN AMRO, recent speeches by ECB president Mario Draghi signal that the ECB has become less confident about its own rather positive economic forecasts.Key Quotes“On 8 November, Mr Draghi still asserted that ‘while some sector-specific data and selected survey results have been somewhat weaker than expected, the latest incoming information overall suggests that the broad-based expansion in the euro area is set to continue’.” “Yet, roughly a week later, on 16 November, he mentioned ‘we have recently seen a loss in growth momentum’. Moreover, he referred to the fact that the central bank had had to lower its last two quarterly growth forecasts and that ‘actual data have also been weak’.” “According to Mr Draghi, the recent economic slowdown is partly due to one-off factors that have temporarily disrupted car production, but also due to weaker trade growth, ‘which is broader-based’.” “Nevertheless, Mr Draghi repeated the ECB’s earlier assessment that ‘the overall risks to the growth outlook are broadly balanced’. He explained that this was largely because the ‘underlying drivers of domestic demand remain in place, particularly the virtuous circle between employment, labour income and consumption’. Still, he admitted that employment growth had slowed down recently (to 0.2% qoq in Q3, down from 0.4% in Q2).” “More generally, Mr Draghi mentioned that the ECB’s forward guidance on interest rates (at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019) is contingent on economic developments and that ‘if financial or liquidity conditions should tighten unduly or if the inflation outlook should deteriorate, this should be reflected in an adjustment in the expected path of future interest rates’. All in all, we think that Mr Draghi’s most recent speech is in line with our view that the ECB is likely to change its forward guidance on interest rates to signal that policy rates will remain unchanged even longer. Indeed, we expect the first ECB rate hike in March 2020.”  

   •  A fresh wave of a global risk-aversion trade underpins traditional safe-haven assets.    •  The prevalent USD selling bias provides an addition

   •  A fresh wave of a global risk-aversion trade underpins traditional safe-haven assets.
   •  The prevalent USD selling bias provides an additional boost and remains supportive.
Gold reversed an early dip to $1221 area and turned higher to hit near two-week tops during the early European session.  A combination of supporting forces helped the precious metal to build on last week's goodish up-move from over one-month lows and traded with a mild positive bias for the sixth consecutive session. A fresh wave of global risk-aversion trade, triggered by a steep overnight sell-off on Wall Street, turned out to be one of the key factors driving flows towards traditional safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, the US Dollar added to Friday's broad-based weakness, triggered by dovish comments by the Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, and provided an additional boost to the dollar-denominated commodity. The greenback nosedived on Friday after Clarida, in an interview on CNBC, said that interest rates are nearing a neutral rate and warned of a slowing global economy.  However, the recent comments from various Fed officials indicated that interest rates are likely to rise further, which might eventually keep a lid on any runaway rally for the non-yielding yellow metal. Traders now look forward to the US housing market data, due for release later during the early North-America session, in order to capture some short-term momentum play. Technical levels to watchA follow-through up-move beyond $1227 area is likely to accelerate the up-move towards the $1233-35 heavy supply zone en-route $1240 strong horizontal resistance. On the flip side, $1220 level is likely to protect the immediate downside, which if broken might prompt some additional weakness towards 100-day SMA support near the $1213 region.
 

Hong Kong SAR Consumer Price Index remains unchanged at 2.7% in October

RBA governor Philip Lowe, speaking at the CEDA Annual Dinner in Melbourne, reiterated to maintain a steady monetary policy for a while but said that i

RBA governor Philip Lowe, speaking at the CEDA Annual Dinner in Melbourne, reiterated to maintain a steady monetary policy for a while but said that interest rates will rise at some point if economy advances as expected.Key quotes:   •  Watching housing price slump closely.
   •  Price falls come after very large gains in Sydney and Melbourne.
   •  Home price correction comes amid favourable economic background.
   •  The overall economic picture is positive, getting closer to full employment.
   •  But real hourly earnings have been stagnant for the past six years.

According to analysts at ANZ, despite challenges, the New Zealand economy has shown considerable resilience. Key Quotes “The unemployment rate unexp

According to analysts at ANZ, despite challenges, the New Zealand economy has shown considerable resilience.Key Quotes“The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 3.9% in the September quarter and resources in the economy are stretched.” “A number of factors are expected to continue to support growth, but headwinds remain and GDP is expected to grow between 2½-3%– a little below where we see trend. With resources in the economy stretched, conditions are in place for wage and price inflation to increase, but only gradually.” “We expect the OCR to remain on hold for the foreseeable future and see risks to this view as balanced. If inflation picks up more quickly than expected, then a hike may be required. But if the economy underperforms, then more monetary stimulus may be needed.”

Italy's deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio was out on the wires in the last hour, saying that solution on the budget can be found if the dialogue is

Italy's deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio was out on the wires in the last hour, saying that solution on the budget can be found if the dialogue is open.Key quotes:   •  Talks should not result in a battle between Italy and Brussels.
   •  Want to do so without getting rid of the main measures in the budget.
   •  Italian bond yields spread is widening because of the EU's current stance.
   •  EU is acting like a wall towards Italy.

CME Group’s preliminary figures for GBP futures markets noted investors added just 171 contracts to their open interest positions on Monday vs. Friday

CME Group’s preliminary figures for GBP futures markets noted investors added just 171 contracts to their open interest positions on Monday vs. Friday’s final 228,571 contracts. On the other hand, volume dropped for the second day in a row, this time by nearly 48.5K contracts.GBP/USD should remain Brexit-dependentCable’s recovery following last week’s sell off stays intact, although the cautious tone among traders is poised to prevail amidst ongoing volatility around Brexit developments. Another important drop in volume and choppy performance in open interest warns against the sustainability of further gains.

The upbeat tone around the European currency remains well and sound so far today and is now lifting EUR/USD to the area of daily highs around 1.1460.

The pair resumes the upside and tests session peaks near 1.1460.The greenback remains depressed and sidelined in the 96.20 area.Brexit and Italy remain the main drivers of the pair near term.The upbeat tone around the European currency remains well and sound so far today and is now lifting EUR/USD to the area of daily highs around 1.1460.EUR/USD looks to EcoFin meeting, BrexitSpot is advancing for yet another session on Tuesday amidst the lack of traction in the greenback and has now surpassed the key area in the mid-1.1400s. In the meantime, the buck remains under pressure on easing trade concerns between the US and China and ahead of the G20 meeting, where Trump and Xi Jinping are expected to meet. Further out, all the attention stays on Brexit as investors will closely follow today’s developments in Brussels, where UK’s Theresa May is expected to discuss trade issues. In the data space, German Producer Prices rose 0.3% MoM and 3.3% on a year to October, matching initial estimates. Later in the session, the EcoFin meeting should kick in ahead of US Housing Starts, Building Permits and the API report on crude oil inventories.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is up 0.08% at 1.1463 facing the next hurdle at 1.1502 (high Nov.7) seconded by 1.1515 (55-day SMA) and finally 1.1559 (100-day SMA). On the other hand, a break below 1.1377 (21-day SMA) would target 1.1361 (10-day SMA) en route to 1.1214 (2018 low Nov.12).

In the US, the NAHB housing market index dropped to 60 in October from 68 in September, notes the research team at Danske Bank. Key Quotes “The leve

In the US, the NAHB housing market index dropped to 60 in October from 68 in September, notes the research team at Danske Bank.Key Quotes“The level remains high but the trend is not good. Many housing indicators are turning around and while the interpretation is difficult given the extremely high volatility in most of them, it seems as though the housing market is cooling, perhaps because mortgage rates have hit 5%.” “We think it is increasingly important to look out for how the housing market is doing. This market is a very important driver of overall economic activity.”

In the UK, Brexit concerns remain front and centre, as we await word whether Tory rebels can muster the 48 letters necessary to trigger a leadership c

In the UK, Brexit concerns remain front and centre, as we await word whether Tory rebels can muster the 48 letters necessary to trigger a leadership challenge, points out the research team at TD Securities.Key Quotes“Today's Parliamentary testimony by several BoE officials - including Governor Carney - will be notable though cable remains confined ot a broad 1.2750/1.3250 range, however, suggesting the hurdle for a larger trend move may be fairly high until political risks recede.”

   •  Resurfacing US-China trade tensions prompt some long-unwinding trade.    •  Weaker copper prices further dent sentiment and add to the selling

   •  Resurfacing US-China trade tensions prompt some long-unwinding trade.
   •  Weaker copper prices further dent sentiment and add to the selling bias.
   •  Subdued USD price action helps limit further downside, at least for now.

 
The AUD/USD pair remained under some selling pressure for the second consecutive session and retreated farther from over 2-1/2 month tops, set last Friday. The pair struggled to build on last week's goodish upsurge, with conflicting signals on the prospects for a breakthrough in the US-China trade dispute exerted fresh downward pressure on the China-proxy Aussie and prompted some long-unwinding on the first day of a new trading week.  The commodity-linked Australian Dollar was further weighed down by a weaker tone around commodity space, especially copper. This coupled with the global flight to safety exerted some additional downward pressure on perceived riskier currencies - like the Aussie.  Bullish traders seemed unimpressed by the latest RBA monetary policy meeting minutes, which showed that policymakers expect above-trend growth in 2018 and 2019, supported by interest rates at a record low level of 1.50%. Meanwhile, IMF's comments on the Australian economy, saying that the balance of risks is tilted to the downside amid slower China growth/trade tensions, further collaborated to the pair's intraday slide to a session low level of 0.7268. However, Fed rate hike uncertainty, especially after the Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida's dovish comments on Friday, continued undermining the US Dollar demand and helped limit deeper losses, in fact, helped the pair to rebound around 20-pips from daily lows. Moving ahead, today's US economic docket, featuring the release of the US housing market, will now be looked upon for some short-term trading opportunities later during the early North-American session. Technical levels to watchThe 0.7300 handle now seems to act as an immediate hurdle, above which the pair is likely to make a fresh attempt towards clearing the 0.7335-40 supply zone. On the flip side, the 0.7270 region now becomes an immediate support to defend, which if broken could accelerate the slide towards 0.7235 intermediate support en-route the 0.7200 handle.
 

Switzerland Trade Balance above forecasts (2890M) in October: Actual (3748M)

The China Securities Journal published an opinion piece on the Chinese Yuan earlier today, with the key points found below. Exchange rate likely to s

The China Securities Journal published an opinion piece on the Chinese Yuan earlier today, with the key points found below. Exchange rate likely to stay stable as the rally in US dollar slows, and it is China policy is to stabilize economic growth. The Yuan less likely to drop under 7 versus the US dollar. Further expectations gaining that the Fed will slow its pace of hikes in 2019.

According to analysts at Danske Bank, the two main things to look out for in the near-term for the UK economy are whether there will be a no confidenc

According to analysts at Danske Bank, the two main things to look out for in the near-term for the UK economy are whether there will be a no confidence vote in Theresa May and whether the supporting party, Ulster's DUP, will pull its support for the government.Key Quotes“With respect to the former, it is proving more difficult for the Brexit hardliners to secure the 48 'no confidence' letters than they had imagined.” “We still think a leadership challenge is likely, but the difficulties support our view that Theresa May is likely to survive it. With respect to the latter, the DUP chose to abstain from the budget votes last night, which is against the confidence and supply deal between May and the DUP, which indicates that the DUP will support the government on (among other things) the budget and finance bills. The big question we need an answer to is whether this is just a warning shot, or whether the DUP is indeed about to pull its overall support.”

Switzerland Trade Balance came in at 6573M, above expectations (2890M) in October

In line with the unanimous consensus, analysts at TD Securities expect the NBH to keep all its policy rates on hold today. Key Quotes “We also expec

In line with the unanimous consensus, analysts at TD Securities expect the NBH to keep all its policy rates on hold today.Key Quotes“We also expect little change in the press statement, which will downplay the rise in headline inflation to 3.8% Y/Y in October and maintain that the 3% target should be reached by mid-2019.” “There is the possibility than the language regarding the imminent end of the current loose monetary policy, i.e. normalization, will be strengthened, but that is not our expectation. New information about the normalization process will probably have to wait for the December meeting when the Monetary Council will have the December inflation report to hand.”

EUR/USD Chart, 5-Minute Over the past two weeks, the Fiber bounced from the 1.1200 zone to stage a near-term bullish correction, and with the 100

The last twenty-four hours in the EUR/USD sees intraday action near the 1.1450 level heading into Tuesday's major market sessions, after catching a confusing lift on Monday from a floor near 1.1390.Intraday support is sitting at the 38.2% Fibo retracement level near 1.1435, and it could be a pivotal intraday zone.EUR/USD Analysis: Rallies despite Italian budgetary concernsEUR/USD Chart, 5-MinuteOver the past two weeks, the Fiber bounced from the 1.1200 zone to stage a near-term bullish correction, and with the 100-hour moving average resting at 1.1360, a decline to this region is likely to see some bidding about the region as buyers try to force a fresh higher low.EUR/USD Chart, 30-MinuteGoing back over the past four months, the EUR/USD remains in a dedicated downtrend, though medium-term boundaries are currently being tested, with the latest bull run facing a confluence zone at the 38.2% Fibo retracement level alongside the 200-period moving average, a dynamic resistance indicator that has kept the Fiber in chains since falling from a medium-term peak of 1.1815.EUR/USD Chart, 4-HourEUR/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.1453
    Daily change: 1.0 pips
    Daily change: 0.00873%
    Daily Open: 1.1452
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.1374
    Daily SMA50: 1.1509
    Daily SMA100: 1.1561
    Daily SMA200: 1.1811
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.1466
    Daily Low: 1.1394
    Weekly High: 1.142
    Weekly Low: 1.1216
    Monthly High: 1.1625
    Monthly Low: 1.1302
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1438
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1421
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1409
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1365
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1336
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1481
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1509
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1553  

Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.3%) in October

Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (3.3%) in October

   •  The global flight to safety underpinning JPY and exerts downward pressure.    •  A modest uptick in the US bond yields helped limit deeper loss

   •  The global flight to safety underpinning JPY and exerts downward pressure.
   •  A modest uptick in the US bond yields helped limit deeper losses, for now.
   •  Traders now eye US housing market data for some short-term opportunities.
The USD/JPY pair struggled to register any meaningful recovery and remained within striking distance of monthly lows touched earlier today. The pair extended last week's sharp retracement slide from over one-month tops and remained on the defensive through the Asian session on Tuesday amid the prevalent risk-off mood. A fresh wave of global risk-aversion trade, triggered by a steep overnight sell-off on Wall Street, was seen benefitting the Japanese Yen's safe-haven status and eventually exerting some downward pressure. However, a modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields, though failed to revive the US Dollar demand, extended some support and helped limit any deeper losses, at least for the time being. The greenback held flat on Tuesday and continues to be weighed down by Friday's dovish comments by the Fed's newly appointed vice chair Richard Clarida, who warned of a slowing global economy and said that interest rates are nearing a neutral rate.  Currently hovering around mid-112.00s, the lowest level since Oct. 30, market participants now look forward to the US housing market data for some fresh impetus later during the early North-American session. In the meantime, the USD price dynamics and the broader market risk sentiment might continue to act as key determinants of the pair's momentum.Technical levels to watchA follow-through selling pressure has the potential to continue dragging the pair further towards the 112.10-112.00 region en-route its next major support near the 111.80-75 zone. On the flip side, any attempted recovery beyond the 112.65-70 region could get extended but seems more likely to remain capped at the 113.00 handle.
 

Moody’s Investors Service said in a report on Tuesday, The Reserve Bank of India’s decision to allow lenders more time to comply with the additional c

Moody’s Investors Service said in a report on Tuesday, The Reserve Bank of India’s decision to allow lenders more time to comply with the additional capital buffer norms under Basel 3 is credit negative for the country’s state-run banks.Key Quotes (via Reuters): “The decision to extend the timeline for the full implementation of Basel 3 guidelines by a year is a credit negative for Indian public sector banks. The common equity Tier 1 ratio or core capital “over the next 12 months would be lower than what we currently expect” for some banks. The track record of such dispensations on asset classification, when seen over the last few years in India, has shown that they have largely been unsuccessful in addressing the underlying stress.” 

Analysts at TD Securities note that after a marathon 9 hour board meeting yesterday the RBI and Indian government appeared to come to an agreement on

Analysts at TD Securities note that after a marathon 9 hour board meeting yesterday the RBI and Indian government appeared to come to an agreement on the use of RBI reserves and a review of its assessment of state banks NPLs.Key Quotes“The RBI will set up of a committee to examine reserves management. This does not automatically mean reserves will be utilised by the government, thus alleviating some market fears.” “RBI will also consider measures to restructure stressed loans to meet a risk weighted capital adequacy ratio.” “INR is outperforming in the wake of the board meeting, with RBI appearing to have gone some, albeit not all the way towards appeasing the government in its demands. The fact that this has happened without resignations or intensifying friction is a relief for markets.”

Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that in the UK, focus remains on Brexit and any news regarding Theresa May's uncertain future as PM and party leader.

Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that in the UK, focus remains on Brexit and any news regarding Theresa May's uncertain future as PM and party leader.Key Quotes“May is expected to travel to Brussels today to discuss trade. Apart from politics, markets will also keep an eye on any changes in the BoE's rhetoric, when Carney, Haldane, Cunliffe and Saunders testify before the UK Parliament's Treasury Committee today.” “In the US, housing starts and building permit data for October is due. Recently, the housing market has looked a bit shaky, but numbers for September were probably influenced by the hurricane season. Hence, we will keep an eye on whether we see a recovery in October and the coming months.”

Analysts at TD Securities note that the Minutes for the RBA November Board meeting did not make any ripples as expected, given the 6 Nov policy statem

Analysts at TD Securities note that the Minutes for the RBA November Board meeting did not make any ripples as expected, given the 6 Nov policy statement was more than fleshed out in the subsequent Statement on Monetary Policy.Key Quotes“RBA noted, "business investment could turn out stronger than expected", "the next move in cash rates more likely to be an increase" and "unemployment rate could fall further in near term". The comments were not new and had little impact.” “The next data point of interest is next week's capex report, followed by the usual run-up to GDP (trade, govt spending and inventories) for Q3 GDP released Dec 5.”

France ILO Unemployment came in at 9.1% below forecasts (9.2%) in 3Q

As noted by Bloomberg, the head of Columbia's Threadneedle, Ed Al-Hussainy sees no way to successfully trade UK Prime Minister Theresa May's current s

As noted by Bloomberg, the head of Columbia's Threadneedle, Ed Al-Hussainy sees no way to successfully trade UK Prime Minister Theresa May's current slow-motion Brexit crisis, and the only feasible solution is to adjust perspective on the UK and instead focus on the Bank of England (BoE), and its interest rate struggles.Key quotesFrom Al-Hussainy’s perspective though, Carney will probably have to tighten policy and a yield spike could be on the way. The pullback in market pricing shows that traders are focused on the growth risk from Brexit, the Minneapolis-based analyst said, and that they’re underestimating the potential impact on inflation due to factors such as currency weakness, higher import costs and reduced immigration.  “We have no base case -- we tried scenario analysis but it’s not working,” Al-Hussainy said of his team’s approach to trading Brexit. “The moment we start assigning probabilities, we’re going to be wrong. Our people in the U.K. are too close to what’s going on, and we in the States are too far away.” Markets may have to readjust to the prospect of higher rates soon, said Al-Hussainy, as the BOE is unlikely to significantly downgrade its growth outlook in its next set of economic forecasts. He predicts that intermediate-maturity U.K. yields will rise relative to those in the U.S., because the BOE doesn’t have the same luxury of putting hikes on hold that the Fed has -- especially if the British currency continues to slide. To complicate matters, Al-Hussainy said a no-deal Brexit could threaten the haven status of U.K. government debt. “There’s a real risk that if you have a nasty Brexit outcome, this luxury will start to disappear,” he said. “And investors will demand a higher compensation to hold gilts.”

FX option expiries for Nov 20 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1500 613m AUD/USD: AUD amounts

FX option expiries for Nov 20 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1500 613m AUD/USD: AUD amounts  0.7390 650m

In light of advanced figures for EUR futures markets, open interest dropped by nearly 6.4K contracts on Monday from Friday’s final 532,883 contracts,

In light of advanced figures for EUR futures markets, open interest dropped by nearly 6.4K contracts on Monday from Friday’s final 532,883 contracts, reverting three consecutive builds. In the same line, volume shrunk significantly by around 84.1K contracts.EUR/USD could attempt some consolidationThe rally in EUR/USD appears to have lost momentum in the mid-1.1400s for the time being amidst diminishing volume and open interest. That said, the pair could stay sidelined in the very near term, while extra gains should need a more convincing catalyst.

WTI Chart, 5-Minute Despite some shocks to the downside, American crude barrels are holding steadily above the near-term bottom at 54.75 as energ

The last twenty-four hours saw US crude dip into the 55.00 critical level before immediately rebounding to familiar resistance levels near 57.00.WTI Chart, 5-MinuteDespite some shocks to the downside, American crude barrels are holding steadily above the near-term bottom at 54.75 as energies traders recover from several months of headline-fueled shock selling.WTI Chart, 30-MinuteWTI's six-week decline shows just how far critical energy has declined, and even a straight bounce to the 38.2% Fibo retracement level at 63.25 will still see WTI maintain a bearish stance in the medium-term.WTI Chart, 4-HourWTI Overview:
    Last Price: 56.99
    Daily change: -37 pips
    Daily change: -0.645%
    Daily Open: 57.36
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 61.06
    Daily SMA50: 67.43
    Daily SMA100: 67.91
    Daily SMA200: 68.19
Levels:
    Daily High: 57.42
    Daily Low: 57.3
    Weekly High: 60.93
    Weekly Low: 55.21
    Monthly High: 76.25
    Monthly Low: 64.86
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 57.37
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 57.35
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 57.3
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 57.24
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 57.18
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 57.42
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 57.48
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 57.54  

Forex today in Asia witnessed risk-off market profile for the second day in a row this Monday, as the Asian stocks tracked the heavy losses in their W

Forex today in Asia witnessed risk-off market profile for the second day in a row this Monday, as the Asian stocks tracked the heavy losses in their Wall Street counterparts. Amid risk-aversion, the Aussie was the biggest loser while the Yen recovered ground and dragged the USD/JPY pair back to the 112.50 level. The Aussie faced rejected at 0.7300 and from there dropped sharply to 0.7270 following the IMF warnings on the Australian economy. The rest of the majors stuck to tight trading ranges amid a broadly subdued US dollar while markets await fresh updates around the European politics for further trading impetus. Both crude benchmarks traded on the back foot ahead of the OPEC-Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meetings while gold prices on Comex remains stuck below the 1225 level amid slightly higher Treasury yields.  Main Topics in AsiaNorthern Irish DUP party fires warning shot at UK PM May - Reuters Japan's Aso: PM has ordered supplementary budget RBA November meeting minutes: No strong case for a near term move BoJ’s Kuroda: Chance of hitting inflation target in FY2020 is low Trump Administration considering adding Venezuela to US list of state sponsors of terrorism N. Korea urges Japan to withdraw support for US-led sanctions - Yonhap Gold: 100-day EMA is proving a tough nut to crack for third straight day Mexico expects US to begin lifting tariffs with USMCA deal signing´ Asian stocks are a sea of red, the Shanghai Composite is trapping bulls no wrong side of the marketKey Focus AheadThe EUR economic calendar remains data-light for the second straight day this week, with the second-liner German producer price index data slated for release at 0700 GMT alongside the release of the Swiss trade numbers. At 0820 GMT, the RBA Governor Lowe’s speech will be published, as he is due to deliver a speech titled "Trust and Prosperity" at the Committee for Economic Development of Australia Annual Dinner, in Melbourne. The main focus in Europe will be on the Bank of England (BOE) inflation report hearings due at 1000 GMT when the BOE Governor Carney will testify before the Parliamentary Treasury Select Committee (TSC) along with MPC's Haldane, Cuncliffe and Saunders. Markets will watch out for fresh take of the central bank on the latest Brexit developments. Meanwhile, the Brexit-related headlines will continue to drive the sentiment across the fx board. In the NA session, the US housing starts and building permits data will be reported at 1330 GMT, followed by New Zealand’s GDT price index around 1400 GMT. At 1500 GMT, we have the ECB Vice-President Weidmann speaking at the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority Conference, in Frankfurt. Also, of note remains the speeches by the BOC Governing Council members Wilkins and Lane that are due at 1800 GMT and 2200 GMT respectively. The US API fuel stocks data will be published at 2130 GMT. It’s also worth noting that the OPEC-Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meetings are scheduled later on Tuesday, which will have a major bearing on the oil market. EUR/USD: Upside gathering steam as yield differentials roll over in favor of the EUR The EUR/USD is looking north amid risk aversion in the financial markets. The EUR's resilience to the risk aversion could be associated with a decline in the US-German yield differential.  GBP/USD: Brexit on the backburner once more as UK Inflation Hearings back for another round On the economic calendar for Tuesday, the Bank of England's (BoE) Governor Mark Carney will be delivering his testimony in the British parliament for the latest Inflation Report Hearings … EUR weakness is coming to an end – Commerzbank Analysts at Commerzbank offer their view on the Euro in the coming months, in the wake of the Italian political risks. These currencies have a history of Thanksgiving breakouts Fundamentally, there's not much on the US calendar this week and it seems like any weakness in second-tier reports is being used as an excuse to continue selling dollars.  Will Goldilocks Inflation Stay in 2019? Inflation has reached a Goldilocks state as far as the Fed is concerned. Yet could the Goldilocks scenario change and cause the Fed to either quicken its pace of policy tightening or ease up on the brakes?  

The Bloomberg US financial condition index shows significantly tighter conditions since the September FOMC, although only back to levels in April this

The Bloomberg US financial condition index shows significantly tighter conditions since the September FOMC, although only back to levels in April this year, points out Greg Gibbs, Analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital.Key Quotes“Money-market spreads are narrower since earlier in the year, although they too have risen in recent months. This suggests that the Fed might not need to hit the pause button yet.  However, it has hiked twice more since April, so rates are closer to neutral, and corporate bond credit risk has risen to new highs.” “At this stage, the market might be right to presume a hike is coming in December, but it is not in the bag.  If market volatility picks up and financial conditions tighten further, then the Fed could decide to pause, or at least use its press conference to suggest further tightening in 2019 might be kept in the bag pending clearer evidence that economic momentum is being maintained despite tighter financial market conditions and increased perceptions of risk in the global and US economy.” “A broader tightening in US credit conditions may reflect increasing market concern over the impact of US trade policy.”

Daily chart The pair closed below the key support of 71.53 (Sept. 14 low) yesterday, bolstering the already bearish setup, as represented by the

The USD/INR dropped to the lowest in over two months on Tuesday. The currency pair printed an intraday low of 71.28 earlier today – the level last seen on Sept. 4 – and was last seen trading at 71.32. The pair could extend the decline to the immediate support of 70.80, albeit after a minor bounce, technical charts indicate.Daily chartThe pair closed below the key support of 71.53 (Sept. 14 low) yesterday, bolstering the already bearish setup, as represented by the descending 5- and 10-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), 14-day relative strength index of 33.00 and lower highs and lower lows pattern.4-hour chartOver on the 4-hour chart, the RSI is at its lowest since June, indicating the sell-off is overdone.  As a result, a corrective bounce could be in the offing, before further downside unfolds. The overall bearish view would be aborted if the corrective bounce, if any, ends up pushing the pair above the descending (bearish) 10-day EMA, currently lined up at 72.07.  

According to analysts at ANZ weakness in the Auckland and Canterbury markets have weighed on the New Zealand’s nationwide picture, with these regions

According to analysts at ANZ weakness in the Auckland and Canterbury markets have weighed on the New Zealand’s nationwide picture, with these regions comprising 42% of house sales combined, but a number of other regions have experienced strong price gains recently.Key Quotes“Conditions can change quickly and the outlook is uncertain, but all else equal, strong demand in these markets appears conducive to further regional price increases. This delayed cycle relative to Auckland is not unusual for the New Zealand housing market.” “On the whole, we expect that the nationwide market will remain contained. But regional divergence is expected, with hotspots expected to continue to outperform while headwinds blow strongest in Auckland and Canterbury.” “The housing market is navigating a period of volatility. The foreign-buyer ban came into effect in mid-October, stymying demand, even if only a small portion of buyers are affected. And a number of offsetting forces are at play.” “But a number of headwinds are acting on the market, including bank prudence, investor wariness and affordability constraints – and these are expected to see the market remain contained. Given this outlook, we expect that the RBNZ will ease loan-to-value ratio restrictions at the November FSR, but continued caution should see settings remain “tight” for some time.”

Greg Gibbs, Analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital, points out that in interviews last week, Fed Chair Powell and Vice Chair Clarida shifted the Fed’

Greg Gibbs, Analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital, points out that in interviews last week, Fed Chair Powell and Vice Chair Clarida shifted the Fed’s tone on the path for rates as both acknowledged evidence of slowing global demand, and that they now have to think more about how far and how fast to raise rates.Key Quotes“Both Powell and Clarida were not suggesting a pause in rates was imminent, but they are now much less on auto-pilot.  The economic data is clearly important, but they may also be more responsive to financial market conditions.” “This is a distinctly different message than Powell gave the market when he said on 3 October that interest rates were still a long way from neutral.”  

The US Dollar added to Friday's broad-based weakness, triggered by dovish comments by the Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, and lost some additional

The US Dollar added to Friday's broad-based weakness, triggered by dovish comments by the Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, and lost some additional ground on the first day of a new trading week. The greenback nosedived on Friday after Clarida, in an interview on CNBC, said that interest rates are nearing a neutral rate and warned of a slowing global economy.  The anti-dollar flow helped the EUR/USD pair to continue gaining positive traction for the fourth consecutive session and build on last week’s goodish rebound from YTD lows, around the 1.1200 neighborhood. The pair climbed to 1-1/2 week tops, beyond mid-1.1400s, and seemed rather unaffected by widening Italian-German 10-year bond yield spread, which rose to the highest level in more than three weeks at 320 bps on the back of growing concerns about Italy's fiscal health. The pair now seems to have entered a bullish consolidation phase and was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band through the Asian session on Tuesday. In absence of any major market moving economic releases, the USD price dynamics might continue to act as an exclusive driver of the pair’s price action. However, the ongoing bullish momentum might come to a grinding halt amid expectations that the EU might take the first step to discipline Italy over its 2019 budget deficit target by starting the procedure to issue sanctions on Wednesday. Looking at the technical picture, the pair already seems to have confirmed a near-term bullish breakthrough over one-month-old descending trend-channel and was now seen trying to form a firm base around 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1.1815-1.1216 recent downfall. Hence, a follow-through buying interest should assist the pair to continue scaling higher towards reclaiming the key 1.1500 psychological mark en-route the 1.1520-25 supply zone, nearing 50% Fibonacci retracement level.  On the flip side, the descending trend-channel resistance break-point, around the 1.1425-20 region, now seems to protect the immediate downside and is closely followed by the 1.1400 handle, below which the pair could slide back towards testing 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level support near the 1.1360-55 region.

GBP/USD is trading flatly near 1.2850, keeping tied to familiar levels for the week as Sterling traders enjoy a breather from a hectic circuit of buyi

Brexit tensions remain high, but volatility has tightened up as investors await the next turn of the page.The UK's latest Inflation Hearings sees the BoE's Carney on the testimony stand today in parliament.GBP/USD is trading flatly near 1.2850, keeping tied to familiar levels for the week as Sterling traders enjoy a breather from a hectic circuit of buying on hopeful Brexit headlines, and then selling short on suddenly bearish Brexit headlines. Brexit remains a hot mess for the Sterling, and Prime Minister Theresa May is in a race against the clock as she tries to strong-arm a 500-page Brexit 'deal' as Brexiteers within her own Tory party increasingly call for a no-confidence vote in PM May's office, and the risks remain high that regardless of May's efforts, her own House of Commons may outright reject the current Brexit offering anyway, which could throw a major wrench in the works. Before that, though, Pound traders must first get through the upcoming EU Brexit Summit, where support is expected to be broadly received for the current Brexit plan. On the economic calendar for Tuesday, the Bank of England's (BoE) Governor Mark Carney will be delivering his testimony in the British parliament for the latest Inflation Report Hearings, and Carney's words could see far-reaching effects today if the UK's central bank maintains a too-dovish stance while investors take a quick break from the Brexit rollercoaster.GBP/USD Levels to watchThe Cable is enjoying a reprieve from constant trips around the block on Brexit headlines, but as FXStreet's Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik noted, that may not last for long: "the pair has stabilized but this quietness could be a temporal illusion, given Brexit-related governmental chaos. The pair traded as high as 1.2883, where the pair has the 61.8% retracement of the 2016/18 rally a level that had probed strong in the past. The upward potential is limited also in the short term, as, in the 4 hours chart, the pair has been unable to settle beyond a strongly bearish 20 SMA which continues moving away from the 200 EMA. The Momentum indicator in the mentioned chart aims higher in neutral territory, but the RSI remains flat around 46, offsetting the potential of the first." Support levels: 1.2810 1.2765 1.2725 Resistance levels: 1.2845 1.2890 1.2530

Hourly Chart Trend: Bearish AUD/USD Overview:     Last Price: 0.7273     Daily change: -19 pips     Daily change: -0.261%     Daily Open: 0.

The AUD/USD is currently trading at the 100-hour moving average (MA) of 0.7273, having hit a session low of 0.7273 a few minutes before press time. The sharp losses in the Asian equities are likely weighing over the Aussie dollar.On the hourly chart, the currency pair is trapped inside the falling channel (bearish pattern). A channel breakout, if confirmed, could be considered a sign the pullback from the recent high of 0.7338 has ended and the bulls have regained control.The intraday outlook, however, would remain bearish as long as the currency is trapped in a falling channel.Hourly ChartTrend: Bearish AUD/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 0.7273
    Daily change: -19 pips
    Daily change: -0.261%
    Daily Open: 0.7292
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.7184
    Daily SMA50: 0.7171
    Daily SMA100: 0.7256
    Daily SMA200: 0.7451
Levels:
    Daily High: 0.7327
    Daily Low: 0.7276
    Weekly High: 0.7336
    Weekly Low: 0.7164
    Monthly High: 0.724
    Monthly Low: 0.702
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7296
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7308
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.727
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7248
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7219
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.732
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7349
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7371  

Richard Franulovich, Head of FX Strategy at Westpac, notes that the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) sentiment index of US posted an eye-ca

Richard Franulovich, Head of FX Strategy at Westpac, notes that the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) sentiment index of US posted an eye-catching fall to 60 in November from 68, its lowest levels since mid-2016.Key Quotes“The US housing sector has been losing momentum for a few months in the wake of higher rates and last year’s changes to the tax code which saw the deductibility of mortgage interest and state and local property taxes scaled back sharply. If anything it’s a surprise that sentiment among homebuilders held at elevated levels for so long.” “It’s arguably still too early to definitely say whether Trump’s policies have shifted the US economy onto higher growth path.” “The tentative overall conclusion is that some sectors of the economy appear to be stronger post-Trump while others are not. Its no surprise that business sentiment and capital goods shipments are stronger, given the focus on deregulation while the corporate sector received a disproportionately larger share of the tax cut compared to households.”

The EUR/USD is looking north amid risk aversion in the financial markets. The common currency closed above 1.1445 - 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracemen

The EUR/USD closed above the key 38.2 percent Fib retracement yesterday, validating the falling wedge breakout witnessed on Nov. 16.The EUR is showing resilience to risk aversion and renewed US-China trade tensions, possibly due to favorable developments in the bond markets.The EUR/USD is looking north amid risk aversion in the financial markets. The common currency closed above 1.1445 - 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of 1.1815/1.1215 - validating the bullish view put forward by the falling wedge breakout on Friday. The tide has indeed turned in favor of the bulls. Notably, the currency pair is capitalizing on the bullish breakout despite the renewed US-China trade tensions and the risk aversion in the global equity markets. The EUR's resilience to the risk aversion could be associated with a decline in the US-German yield differential. For instance, the 10-year spread between the 10-year US and German bonds fell to a one-month low of 270 basis points yesterday. However, the spread between the 10-year Italian government bond yield and its German counterpart is closing at the recent high of 325 basis points. The common currency's bullish action could come to a screeching halt if the spread breaks above recent highs, reflecting rising concerns about Italy's fiscal health. Apart from bond yields, the common currency could also respond to sound bites flowing in from the Eurozone finance ministers' meeting scheduled today.EUR/USD Technical LevelsEUR/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.1446
    Daily change: -6.0 pips
    Daily change: -0.0524%
    Daily Open: 1.1452
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.1374
    Daily SMA50: 1.1509
    Daily SMA100: 1.1561
    Daily SMA200: 1.1811
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.1466
    Daily Low: 1.1394
    Weekly High: 1.142
    Weekly Low: 1.1216
    Monthly High: 1.1625
    Monthly Low: 1.1302
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1438
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1421
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1409
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1365
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1336
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1481
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1509
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1553  

The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Article IV mission warns that risks to Australia's economy are skewed to the downside and so the Reserve Bank

The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Article IV mission warns that risks to Australia's economy are skewed to the downside and so the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) should keep rates low.  Key points Economic expansion expected to continue Gradual upward pressure on wages and prices likely Notes and Welcomes slowing housing market Warns of risks from slower China growth, trade tensions A 'sharp tightening of global financial conditions could spill over into domestic financial markets' - would raise funding costs, negative impacts on borrowers   

The People's Bank of China's Research Head Xu Zhong is on the wires now, via Reuters, expressing his thoughts on the bank and the economy. Key Commen

The People's Bank of China's Research Head Xu Zhong is on the wires now, via Reuters, expressing his thoughts on the bank and the economy.Key Comments:The previous policy change has weighed on China's economy. Cannot mix up short-term macro policies with reform goals. Downward pressure on China's economy has significantly increased. Downward pressure on China's economy caused partly by previous policy adjustments. Should strengthen policy coordination, avoid one-size fits all policies.

Bill Evans, Research Analyst at Westpac, explains that the  minutes of the November monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board of Australia con

Bill Evans, Research Analyst at Westpac, explains that the  minutes of the November monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board of Australia confirm the confident approach we have seen in the recent Statement on Monetary Policy.Key Quotes“While consumption growth is still identified as a source of uncertainty, the Board expects it to remain around the 3% level over the next few years that we have seen recently. Household disposable income growth is also forecast to increase at that rate.” “GDP growth and labour market conditions had been stronger than the Bank had expected over the last twelve months. Accordingly, the forecast for the unemployment rate had been lowered to 4 ¾ per cent from 5 per cent by mid-2020, with an implied downside risk to that forecast.” “In that regard, the forecast for inflation has been lifted modestly, reflecting the brighter outlook for economic activity, the labour market and wages.” “Their discussion around the housing market is a little less confident.” “The final section of the minutes once again emphasises the importance of wages growth.”“ConclusionThis is a balanced set of minutes but does indicate more confidence from the Board around its growth, employment, wages and inflation views. The outlook was also boosted by the expectation that consumption and income growth will hold at 3% despite slowing employment growth, and risks around the housing market in Sydney and Melbourne. By noting that market pricing is not expecting a policy adjustment for the next year, the Bank does appear to be extremely patient with its next policy move. Westpac expects that their growth forecast for 3 ¼ per cent growth in 2019 is too high, mainly because of an expected downturn in residential construction, a slowdown in consumption growth associated with weaker income growth and some wealth effects. That development alone is likely to take the edge off the expectation of rising wages and higher inflation. We retain our view that the cash rate will remain on hold in 2019 and 2020.”    

Lan Shen, Economist at Standard Chartered, notes that China’s SMEs continue to face a difficult time as the headline SMEI (Bloomberg: SCCNSMEI

Lan Shen, Economist at Standard Chartered, notes that China’s SMEs continue to face a difficult time as the headline SMEI (Bloomberg: SCCNSMEI <Index>) – based on their monthly survey of more than 500 SMEs – edged up to 54.7 in November from 54.5 in October.Key Quotes“This was mainly driven by the ‘credit’ sub-index, which picked up to 52.8 from 50.5 prior, while both the ‘current performance’ and ‘expectations’ sub-indices weakened further.” “Our November survey showed that SMEs’ real activity weakened as the business outlook stayed downbeat. This was reflected in sluggish domestic sales, poor investment appetite, falling financing demand and softer hiring.” “Unprecedented policy support for SME financing prevented credit conditions from deteriorating further.” “After the authorities’ recent announcement of a series of measures addressing financing for SMEs and private firms, our surveyed SMEs expect a further improvement in financing costs via both the bank and non-bank channels, according to our survey.”

The risk aversion seen in the US stocks has hit the Asian shores. As of writing, the major Asian indices are a sea of red. For instance, Japan's Nikk

Asian stocks are flashing red, possibly due to overnight losses in the US stocks.The Shanghai Composite is down 1.6 percent, despite having witnessed an ascending channel breakout yesterday.The risk aversion seen in the US stocks has hit the Asian shores. As of writing, the major Asian indices are a sea of red. For instance, Japan's Nikkei is down 1.13 percent and South Korea's Kospi has shed 1.07 percent. Elsewhere, the Shanghai Composite is reporting a 1.6 percent drop and Hong Kong's Hang Seng is down almost 2 percent. Notably, the Shanghai Composite, which closed at 2703 yesterday confirming an ascending triangle breakout, has neutralized the immediate bullish setup with a move back inside the channel. The Asian equities are likely taking cues from the overnight losses on Wall Street. US stocks nosedived on Monday, with Nasdaq falling 3 percent, as investors dumped Apple, internet and other technology shares. The renewed US-China trade tensions also added the bearish tone around the US stocks. The risk-off tone in Asia, however, isn't helping the anti-risk Japanese yen. This is evident from USD/JPY's failure to beat the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of 112.47.  

Analysts at Commerzbank offer their view on the Euro in the coming months, in the wake of the Italian political risks. Key Quotes: “There is a lot t

Analysts at Commerzbank offer their view on the Euro in the coming months, in the wake of the Italian political risks.Key Quotes:“There is a lot to suggest that the EUR weakness is coming to an end unless Rome produces new disturbing signals. The bond market still sees an increased risk in the Italian government's fiscal policy. However, what is relevant for the FX market is that this risk premium has not widened recently, but is moving sideways. Not sure whether that is fundamentally justified and in particular whether this properly reflects the political risks emanating from Italy. The only thing I do know is that: as long as Italian government bonds remain in this state the subject of "Italy risk" will slowly become irrelevant for the EUR exchange rates.”

The Mexican ambassador to the US Geronimo Gutierrez told McClatchy late-Monday, Mexico expects Washington to begin lifting steel and aluminum tariffs

The Mexican ambassador to the US Geronimo Gutierrez told McClatchy late-Monday, Mexico expects Washington to begin lifting steel and aluminum tariffs against it later this month, when Canada, Mexico and the United States (USMCA) are slated to sign a revamped trade deal. Gutierrez noted: “It’s the expectation that by the time of the signing either a solution or a very clear track that gives enough certainty that a solution is coming.” 

Hourly Chart Trend: Bullish USD/CNH Overview:     Last Price: 6.9369     Daily change: 58 pips     Daily change: 0.0837%     Daily Open: 6.9

The USD/CNH cleared the trendline falling from Nov. 12 highs earlier today, confirming an end of the pullback from the recent high of 6.9694.The pair, however, is having a tough time building on the upside break of the falling trendline. Notably, the 200-hour simple moving average is capping the upside in the pair.Hence, for the bulls to feel emboldened, the pair needs to clear the 200-hour MA hurdle. The bullish view put forward by the upside break of the falling trendline would be invalidated if the pair invalidates the higher lows pattern with a move below 6.93.Hourly ChartTrend: Bullish USD/CNH Overview:
    Last Price: 6.9369
    Daily change: 58 pips
    Daily change: 0.0837%
    Daily Open: 6.9311
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 6.9397
    Daily SMA50: 6.9092
    Daily SMA100: 6.8555
    Daily SMA200: 6.6067
Levels:
    Daily High: 6.9398
    Daily Low: 6.9212
    Weekly High: 6.9701
    Weekly Low: 6.9106
    Monthly High: 6.9798
    Monthly Low: 6.8674
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 6.9327
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 6.9283
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 6.9216
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 6.9121
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 6.903
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 6.9402
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 6.9493
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 6.9588  

AUD/NZD Chart, 5-Minute Over the near-term, the Aussie is exposed its softer underside more often than not, keeping the AUD/NZD pinned to the low

The past twenty-four hours have seen the Aussie lift and then settle again against the Kiwi, leaving AUD/NZD more or less where it started the week as bidders struggle to return to the fold.AUD/NZD Chart, 5-MinuteOver the near-term, the Aussie is exposed its softer underside more often than not, keeping the AUD/NZD pinned to the low end of the 100-hour moving average currently sitting near 1.0660.AUD/NZD Chart, 30-MinuteOver the past two months, the Aussie-Kiwi has flagged into the downside as the AUD continues to suffer a confidence crisis at the hands of slumping Chinese trade figures, offset by New Zealand's decidedly sunnier outlook,  and the pair has a long way to go before ousting the current downtrend.AUD/NZD Chart, 4-HourAUD/NZD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.0656
    Daily change: -10 pips
    Daily change: -0.0938%
    Daily Open: 1.0666
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.0769
    Daily SMA50: 1.0853
    Daily SMA100: 1.0898
    Daily SMA200: 1.0817
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.0697
    Daily Low: 1.0641
    Weekly High: 1.0741
    Weekly Low: 1.0613
    Monthly High: 1.0994
    Monthly Low: 1.0723
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.0675
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.0662
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.0639
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.0612
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.0583
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.0694
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.0723
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.075  

Gold is currently trading at $1,221 per Oz, having faced rejection at the 100-day EMA hurdle of $1,225. Notably, the EMA hurdle has capped gains sinc

The repeated failure to move past the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) is a slight cause for concern for the bulls.The dollar index (DXY) remains on the defensive and could suffer a deeper sell-off, lifting gold above the key EMA hurdle if the 10-year treasury yield suffers a double top breakdown.Gold is currently trading at $1,221 per Oz, having faced rejection at the 100-day EMA hurdle of $1,225. Notably, the EMA hurdle has capped gains since Friday despite the weakness in the US dollar – gold's biggest nemesis. At press time, the dollar index (DXY), which tracks the value of the greenback against the basket of major currencies, is flatlined at 96.22, having lost close to 100 pips in the last two days. While the repeated failure to beat the EMA hurdle despite the weak tone in the USD is a cause for concern, the path of least resistance remains on the high side, as the greenback is on the defensive, having charted a bearish RSI divergence on the daily chart last week. Further, the markets are worried that the global economic slowdown and housing market risks may force the Fed to pause rate hikes next year. As a result, the 10-year treasury yield risks falling below the double top neckline of 3.057 percent. That would only complicate matters for the USD and help the yellow metal cut through the stiff hurdle of 100-day EMA.Gold Technical LevelsXAU/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 1221.87
    Daily change: -2.1e+2 pips
    Daily change: -0.169%
    Daily Open: 1223.94
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1219.69
    Daily SMA50: 1215.36
    Daily SMA100: 1206.87
    Daily SMA200: 1238.59
Levels:
    Daily High: 1225.4
    Daily Low: 1217.7
    Weekly High: 1225.4
    Weekly Low: 1196
    Monthly High: 1243.43
    Monthly Low: 1182.54
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1222.46
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1220.64
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1219.29
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1214.65
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1211.59
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1226.99
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1230.05
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1234.69  

Hourly Chart USD/JPY Overview:     Last Price: 112.6     Daily change: 5.0 pips     Daily change: 0.0444%     Daily Open: 112.55 Trends:   

The USD/JPY is currently trading at 112.58, having clocked a low of 112.40 earlier today.Both hourly and the 4-hour chart is showing a bullish divergence of the relative strength index (RSI). Notably, the bullish divergence on the RSI has been carved out at the key support of 112.47 - 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of 111.38/114.23.As a result, the pair could revisit the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) hurdle of 112.86.The broader outlook remains bearish while the pair is trading below the descending 10-day SMA, currently at 113.42.Hourly ChartUSD/JPY Overview:
    Last Price: 112.6
    Daily change: 5.0 pips
    Daily change: 0.0444%
    Daily Open: 112.55
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 113.07
    Daily SMA50: 112.84
    Daily SMA100: 112.05
    Daily SMA200: 110.16
Levels:
    Daily High: 112.89
    Daily Low: 112.42
    Weekly High: 114.22
    Weekly Low: 112.64
    Monthly High: 114.56
    Monthly Low: 111.38
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 112.6
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 112.71
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 112.34
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 112.14
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 111.87
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 112.82
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 113.09
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 113.29  

South Korean state news agency, Yonhap, reported that “North Korea's external propaganda media on Tuesday urged Japan to withdraw its "anachronistic a

South Korean state news agency, Yonhap, reported that “North Korea's external propaganda media on Tuesday urged Japan to withdraw its "anachronistic and self-destructive" support for the United States-led sanctions on the North.” USD/JPY is seen consolidating the uptick to 112.66, as markets digest BoJ Kuroda’s comments and the latest US headlines related to Venezuela.  

According to the results of a Reuters Poll of economists, the US Federal Reserve is still expected to deliver one more rate hike in December and three

According to the results of a Reuters Poll of economists, the US Federal Reserve is still expected to deliver one more rate hike in December and three more to follow in 2019, but a growing number of respondents are concerned that the pace of hikes may be forced down.Key quotesThe probability of a U.S. recession in the next two years, while still low, also nudged up to a median 35 percent from 30 percent in the latest monthly Reuters survey of economists taken Nov 13-19. It held at 15 percent for the next 12 months. While many developed economies are already slowing, growth in the world’s largest economy is still solid, riding the tail-end of a $1.5 trillion tax cut boost, and official unemployment is the lowest in nearly half a century. But that shine is forecast to start coming off this quarter, with growth slowing more by the end of next year as a trade stand-off with China shows no signs of letting up. “The economy is facing a growing number of headwinds, including the lagged effects of previous interest rate rises and dollar strength, the uncertainty of trade protectionism at a time when external demand is slowing, and a sense that the support from the fiscal stimulus will gradually fade,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING. Economists in the latest poll unanimously said the Fed will raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2.25-2.50 percent in December. Median forecasts show three more increases next year, taking the federal funds rate to 3.00-3.25 percent by end-2019. But the third rate rise is a close call, with just over half, 54 of 102 economists forecasting that outcome. Traders of U.S. short-term interest-rate futures expect only two hikes in 2019.

Latest headlines are crossing the wires, via Livesquawk, reporting that Trump Administration is considering adding Venezuela to the US list of state s

Latest headlines are crossing the wires, via Livesquawk, reporting that Trump Administration is considering adding Venezuela to the US list of state sponsors of terrorism. However, no final decision is made on it yet. Both crude benchmarks are little changed on the above headlines, with WTI holding above the 57 mark. Venezuela, an OPEC member, sits on the world’s largest crude oil reserves but is suffering the worst loss of oil production in history outside of war-induced outage.

Daily Chart Hourly Chart Trend: Bullish NZD/USD Overview:     Last Price: 0.6847     Daily change: 9.0 pips     Daily change: 0.132%     

The NZD/USD pair is bouncing off the ascending (bullish) 5-day simple moving average (SMA) for the second day. That reinforces the bullish view put forward by the higher highs and higher lows seen in the daily chart and the upward sloping 5- and 10-day SMAs.The falling channel breakout seen in the hourly chart is also indicating the pullback from the recent high of 0.6883 has ended and the bullish move has resumed.As a result, the spot looks set to test the 200-day SMA lined up at 0.6886. A close below the 10-day SMA of 0.6793 would weaken the bullish pressure.Daily ChartHourly ChartTrend: Bullish NZD/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 0.6847
    Daily change: 9.0 pips
    Daily change: 0.132%
    Daily Open: 0.6838
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.6672
    Daily SMA50: 0.6608
    Daily SMA100: 0.6659
    Daily SMA200: 0.689
Levels:
    Daily High: 0.6876
    Daily Low: 0.6816
    Weekly High: 0.6884
    Weekly Low: 0.6706
    Monthly High: 0.663
    Monthly Low: 0.6424
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.6839
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.6853
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.6811
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.6784
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.6752
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.6871
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.6903
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.693  

GBP/JPY remains tied up in a near-term sideways channel from 144.40 to 145.35, and the Guppy is hung up just shy of the 145.00 handle heading through

GBP/JPY stuck on the south end of 145.00 as market sentiment remains hung.Brexit continues to bear down on the GBP.GBP/JPY remains tied up in a near-term sideways channel from 144.40 to 145.35, and the Guppy is hung up just shy of the 145.00 handle heading through early Tuesday action. Brexit concerns continue to keep the Sterling chained down, but with market sentiment remaining stacked on the averse side the GBP/JPY is running out of room to run lower, and the pair is steadily trading sideways for this week as longer-term technical traders keep the pair buoyed from just above the 144.00 critical level, which has been a common turning point for the Guppy since May of 2018. The economic calendar continues to deliver more of the same, and the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Kuroda delivered steady rhetoric early Tuesday that mirrors the Japanese central bank's common stance, though the BoJ governor did go so far as to rule out further easing policies to come, despite admitting that the BoJ's 2% inflation target is unlikely to appear before 2021. On the UK side of the economic calendar, Tuesday brings Inflation hearings from the Bank of England's (BoE) Mark Carney at 08:00 GMT< but broader markets may very well find their hands full of a constant stream of Brexit headlines in the run-up.GBP/JPY Technical levelsGBP/JPY Overview:
    Last Price: 144.76
    Daily change: 13 pips
    Daily change: 0.0899%
    Daily Open: 144.63
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 146.05
    Daily SMA50: 147.01
    Daily SMA100: 145.84
    Daily SMA200: 147.18
Levels:
    Daily High: 145.32
    Daily Low: 144.3
    Weekly High: 148.74
    Weekly Low: 144.26
    Monthly High: 149.52
    Monthly Low: 142.78
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 144.69
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 144.93
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 144.18
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 143.72
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 143.15
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 145.2
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 145.78
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 146.23  

More comments are out from the BoJ Governor Kuroda after he said that there is no need for more policy easing in the coming years. Must ensure the cu

More comments are out from the BoJ Governor Kuroda after he said that there is no need for more policy easing in the coming years. Must ensure the current policy is sustainable, with a balanced view on both its positive and negative impacts. BoJ can achieve its 2% target by sustaining current large-scale easing. Chance of hitting inflation target in FY2020 is low.

Adviser to the People's Bank of China (PBOC) Liu Shijin was reported by Reuters, as saying:   China's market economy is at a low level, imperfect. C

Adviser to the People's Bank of China (PBOC) Liu Shijin was reported by Reuters, as saying:   China's market economy is at a low level, imperfect. China cannot go backward on its market reforms.

Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor Kuroda, while speaking before Parliament on Tuesday, ruled out further stimulus and said the 2 percent inflation target

Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor Kuroda, while speaking before Parliament on Tuesday, ruled out further stimulus and said the 2 percent inflation target could be achieved by sustaining the current large-scale easing.

In forex today, broader market action was largely subdued as markets continue to ponder the implications of Fed policy and the ongoing Brexit drama.

In forex today, broader market action was largely subdued as markets continue to ponder the implications of Fed policy and the ongoing Brexit drama. Fed's Williams: Fed to continue hiking rates along gradual path Risk appetite remains constrained as market participants await potential changes to the US Federal Reserve's dot plot of upcoming rate hikes, which still holds steady at five, and with markets largely only pricing in another 3 rate hikes this cycle, a push by the FOMC to produce extra hikes over and above what is broadly expected could knock market sentiment back even further. GBP under pressure from Brexit - HSBC Brexit continues to remain a key issue impacting risk flows through the major market sessions, and this week poses a significant trial for the embattled UK Prime Minister Theresa May, who is still trying to desperately force through a Brexit compromise amidst a rising chorus for a no-confidence vote against the PM from within her own political party, and as the week unfolds traders can expect headlines to continue twisting sentiment towards the bearish side.Key notes from the US sessionUK: Theresa May under pressure? – Nordea Markets EUR/USD extends rally to fresh 12-day high above 1.1450 US: Mixed economic releases – ABN AMRO USD/JPY slumps to November lows near 112.40 as risk aversion dominates Fed: Jerome Powell identifies headwinds for the economy in 2019 – ABN AMRO

The JPY buyers are struggling to push the USD/JPY below 112.47 - 61.8 percent Fibonacci 111.38/114.23 - despite the risk aversion in the markets. As

The USD/JPY is defending the key support of 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement despite the 0.30 percent drop in the S&P 500 futures.The US 10-year treasury yield is also defending the double top neckline of 3.057 percent.The pair could be in for a stronger bounce as the hourly chart is showing a bullish divergence of the relative strength index (RSI).The JPY buyers are struggling to push the USD/JPY below 112.47 - 61.8 percent Fibonacci 111.38/114.23 - despite the risk aversion in the markets. As of writing, the spot is trading 112.55, having clocked a session high of 112.61 a few minutes before press time. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 futures are down 0.3 percent, which means the US equities are likely to extend the sharp drop seen yesterday. Further, at press time, stocks in Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea are reporting losses. The worsening of risk aversion could put a strong bid under the anti-risk JPY. For now, however, the pair is looking to regain some poise on the back of the bullish divergence of the hourly chart relative strength index. The defense of the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement could also be associated with the resilience in the treasury yields. Notably, the 10-year yield is holding above the double top neckline of 3.057 percent.USD/JPY Technical LevelsUSD/JPY Overview:
    Last Price: 112.59
    Daily change: 4.0 pips
    Daily change: 0.0355%
    Daily Open: 112.55
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 113.07
    Daily SMA50: 112.84
    Daily SMA100: 112.05
    Daily SMA200: 110.16
Levels:
    Daily High: 112.89
    Daily Low: 112.42
    Weekly High: 114.22
    Weekly Low: 112.64
    Monthly High: 114.56
    Monthly Low: 111.38
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 112.6
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 112.71
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 112.34
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 112.14
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 111.87
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 112.82
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 113.09
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 113.29  

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.9280 vs Monday's fix of 6.9245. 

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.9280 vs Monday's fix of 6.9245. 

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) November monetary policy meeting released a few minutes before press time reiterated that while t

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) November monetary policy meeting released a few minutes before press time reiterated that while the next move in cash rates is likely to be on the higher side, there is no strong case for a near-term move.Key points (Source: Reuters) members noted average real earnings had not risen for six years, remained a key uncertainty increase in wages growth necessary for inflation to reach the target range impact of slow incomes growth, high debt "warranted close monitoring" employment stronger than expected, unemployment to fall to 4.75% by mid-2020 members noted could be "more pronounced decline" in unemployment in the near term fall in the AUD over 2018 likely to have been helpful for domestic economic growth data pointed to further solid GDP growth in the Sept qtr, to avg 3.5 pct over 2018 and 2019 growth to be supported by accommodative monetary policy, stronger terms of trade Sydney and Melbourne housing markets had eased, credit tighter than has been for some time trade protectionism remained a significant risk to the global economy forecasts assumed a small negative impact on trading partner growth from tariffs

The AUD/USD has barely moved in the last few minutes, even though the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said the next move in interest ra

The Aussie dollar is seeing little action as the RBA minutes offered little hawkish or dovish surprise.The pair created an inside day candle yesterday, neutralizing the immediate bullish view put forward by Friday's inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.A close above 0.7326 would signal a continuation of the rally.The AUD/USD has barely moved in the last few minutes, even though the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said the next move in interest rates is likely to be on the higher side. The minutes, however, reiterated that policymakers do not see a strong case for a near-term move as wage growth remains anemic and high household debt and rising protectionism are risks to the Australian economy. Simply put, the minutes offered little that markets did now know, leaving the Aussie dollar at the mercy of the broader market sentiment, which is currently not in favor of the risk assets. The Aussie, however, could resume its upward journey if today's close is above 0.7325 (high of yesterday's inside day candle). That move would also put the focus back on the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout witnessed on Friday and could yield a rally to 0.7444 (200-day SMA).AUD/USD Technical LevelsAUD/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 0.7297
    Daily change: 5.0 pips
    Daily change: 0.0686%
    Daily Open: 0.7292
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.7184
    Daily SMA50: 0.7171
    Daily SMA100: 0.7256
    Daily SMA200: 0.7451
Levels:
    Daily High: 0.7327
    Daily Low: 0.7276
    Weekly High: 0.7336
    Weekly Low: 0.7164
    Monthly High: 0.724
    Monthly Low: 0.702
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7296
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7308
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.727
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7248
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7219
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.732
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7349
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7371  

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) November meeting released a few minutes before press time revealed the policymakers believe the nex

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) November meeting released a few minutes before press time revealed the policymakers believe the next move in the interest rates is likely to be on the higher side, but see no strong case for a near-term move. 

According to analysts at ANZ, markets are beginning to shift expectations for the US Federal Reserve. Key quotes Previous guidance from the Fed has

According to analysts at ANZ, markets are beginning to shift expectations for the US Federal Reserve. Key quotes Previous guidance from the Fed has been for three more hikes in 2019, while the market is currently pricing in almost two more hikes. :p8 expects the Fed will raise rates in December then only once more in mid-2019.  market pricing has slid from the 80% probability priced in during mid-October to 67% priced in currently.:"Fed may be preparing market for significant shift in dot plots in December  Reported earlier: Fed may be preparing market for significant shift in dot plots in December.

Comments from Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso are crossing the wires via Reuters: PM Abe has ordered supplementary budget.  The budget will hav

Comments from Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso are crossing the wires via Reuters: PM Abe has ordered supplementary budget.  The budget will have disaster relief and measures to counter the negative effects of the sales tax hike due in October 2019.   

NZD/USD continues to trade near 0.6850 after Monday saw the Asia-Pacific sector take a step lower against the Greenback. The Kiwi is trading into the

The Kiwi is struggling to maintain itself after failing to capture 0.6900 in the last upmove.NZD/USD continues to trade near 0.6850 after Monday saw the Asia-Pacific sector take a step lower against the Greenback. The Kiwi is trading into the softer side of recent action, in play near 0.6840 despite remaining firmly entrenched witthin Monday's's high/low range. All's quiet on the New Zeland front with little of note on the economic calendar, though the latest results of the Global Dairy Auction, due at some point today, could see Kiwi bidders return to the fold if numbers climb again. Overall the NZD/USD appears to be in a firmly supported bullish, lifting ever since reversing the pair's directional bias from October's bottom of 0.64500.NZD/USD Technical LevelsNZD/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 0.6842
    Daily change: -39 pips
    Daily change: -0.567%
    Daily Open: 0.6881
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.6658
    Daily SMA50: 0.6601
    Daily SMA100: 0.6657
    Daily SMA200: 0.6892
Levels:
    Daily High: 0.6884
    Daily Low: 0.6798
    Weekly High: 0.6884
    Weekly Low: 0.6706
    Monthly High: 0.663
    Monthly Low: 0.6424
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.6851
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.6831
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.6825
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.6769
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.674
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.6911
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.694
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.6996  

As reported by Reuters, Northern Ireland's DUP party aimed a shot across the bow of UK Prime Minister Theresa May, withholding their votes on key issu

As reported by Reuters, Northern Ireland's DUP party aimed a shot across the bow of UK Prime Minister Theresa May, withholding their votes on key issues as a display of discontent with the PM's latest Brexit agreement with the EU.Key quotes"May agreed a draft arrangement to leave the European Union last week, but the DUP has said that May should demand a better deal, arguing the current proposal could undermine the integrity of the United Kingdom. Under the terms of the DUP’s arrangement with May’s Conservative party, the Northern Irish party has agreed to back May’s government on, among other things, “the budget; finance bills; money bills”. But on Monday, the DUP abstained on the first two votes on the Finance Bill, and eight DUP lawmakers voted against the government in a third vote, on an amendment to the bill proposed by the opposition Labour party. The government still won the votes and Wilson said the votes were a warning rather than a breach of the deal as they were not intended “to damage the government fiscally,” the BBC reported. “The prime minister has undermined her own authority with her own party and with our party by blatantly breaking promises about what she would deliver in the Brexit deal with the European Union,” Wilson was quoted as saying.

AUD/USD has softened its stance through Monday trading, sliding beneath the 0.7300 key technical figure as Aussie buyers struggled to find a reason to

Thin action for the Aussie sees the major Antipodean pair slipping lower.Action on the economic calendar appears hefty, but the action has been well-telegraphed.AUD/USD has softened its stance through Monday trading, sliding beneath the 0.7300 key technical figure as Aussie buyers struggled to find a reason to keep the AUD propped up against the Greenback in quiet markets to kick off the new trading week. Monday brought little of note for the AUD on the economic calendar, and despite the stacked appearance of Tuesday's data docket, movement can be expected to remain constrained amidst broader market flows continuing to keep a hesitant eye on US-China trade relations. The latest Meeting Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are expected to drop early Tuesday at 00:30 GMT, but with the Australian central bank's wait-and-see stance well-telegraphed and documented, expectations for any serious adjustments to the RBA's internal dialogues remain incredibly low. Later on will see a speech from the RBA's Governor Phillip Lowe at 08:20 GMT, though the RBA governor is unlikely to derail or alter the current line of rhetoric while he gives a speech at the annual dinner of the Committee for Economic Development of Australia.AUD/USD Levels to watchThe AUD/USD is still hanging onto a bullish technical stance according to FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik: "meanwhile, and despite the daily decline, the pair retains the positive tone, at least short-term as, in the 4 hours chart, technical indicators retreated from overbought readings but turned flat within positive levels, the Momentum right above its mid-line and the RSI at around 55. In the same chart, moving averages continue advancing below the current level, with the 20 SMA providing intraday support. Bulls could become discouraged if the pair doesn't recover the 0.7300 level, but bears will re-take control only below 0.7250." support levels: 0.7290 0.7250 0.7210 Resistance levels: 0.7300 0.7340 0.7380  

DXY daily chart The US Dollar Index (DXY) pulled back after the market formed a 5-wave Elliot pattern. Technical indicators turned bearish. DX

DXY daily chartThe US Dollar Index (DXY) pulled back after the market formed a 5-wave Elliot pattern.Technical indicators turned bearish.DXY 4-hour chartDXY broke below the 50 and 100-period simple moving averages (SMA) and is currently finding support at the 200 SMA just above the 96.00 figure. The Stochastic indicator is oversold suggesting that a pullback up can be in the making.
DXY 30-minute chartDXY is trading below its main simple moving averages so bulls will need to do a lot of work to bring the market back up.A quick spike down top 96.00 remains on the cards. But the downside remains limited.
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