Forex News Timeline

13:48 AUD/USD jumps to near 0.6350 as US Dollar plummets after Trump’s tariff plan
The AUD/USD pair moves higher and advances toward the two-week high of 0.6350 in Thursday’s European session.

13:47 USD/JPY: Safe-haven flows push the pair downwards – OCBC
USD/JPY fell as demand for safe-haven overwhelms even as Japan is slapped with 24% reciprocal tariff rate.

USD/JPY fell as demand for safe-haven overwhelms even as Japan is slapped with 24% reciprocal tariff rate. USD/JPY was last at 146.69 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Risks skewed to the downside "Bullish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI fell. Risks skewed to the downside. Next support at 146.50 levels. Resistance at 149.00/20 levels (21 DMA, 50% fibo)." "We reiterate our view that beyond the near-term impact of tariffs, we still look for USD/JPY to trend lower, premised on Fed-BoJ policy divergence (Fed rate cut cycle while the BoJ has room to further pursue policy normalisation, supported by economic data including upbeat GDP, signs of potential increase in wages, firmer CPI, etc.)."

13:40 NZD/USD: Current price movements are likely part of a range – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to trade in a 0.5670/0.5770 range vs US Dollar (USD). NZD rebounded two days ago and closed at 0.5701. In the longer run, current price movements are likely part of a 0.5640/0.5800 range, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to trade in a 0.5670/0.5770 range vs US Dollar (USD). NZD rebounded two days ago and closed at 0.5701. In the longer run, current price movements are likely part of a 0.5640/0.5800 range, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. NZD is likely to trade in a range24-HOUR VIEW: "In early Asian trade yesterday, when NZD was at 0.5705, we pointed out that it “could continue to rebound but any advance is likely part of a 0.5670/0.5725 range.” However, during the late NY session, NZD spiked to a high of 0.5780, pulling back sharply to close at 0.5745 (+0.77%). The brief rise did not result in any increase in upward momentum. Today, we expect NZD to trade in a range, most likely between 0.5670 and 0.5770."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We revised our view to negative last Wednesday (26 Mar, spot at 0.5730), indicating that NZD 'is likely to edge lower toward the major support zone between 0.5650 and 0.5670.' After NZD dropped to 0.5649 and rebounded, we pointed out yesterday (02 Apr, spot at 0.5705) that 'if NZD breaks above 0.5725 (‘strong resistance’ level), it would mean that the weakness in NZD has stabilised. NZD subsequently rose briefly to 0.5770. The current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, expected to be between 0.5640 and 0.5800."

13:18 DXY: ISM services, payrolls next – OCBC
Varied reaction in FX markets with open trade, growth-sensitive FX such as CNH, KRW, SGD, MYR and THB under some pressure post-tariff announcement. DXY was last seen at 102 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Varied reaction in FX markets with open trade, growth-sensitive FX such as CNH, KRW, SGD, MYR and THB under some pressure post-tariff announcement. DXY was last seen at 102 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Mild bullish momentum on daily chart faded"There is likely to be a period of negotiation and retaliatory responses between tariffed countries and the US. It may take a while before we see the final tariff outcome; but in the interim, we should continue to see divergent USD at play: with USD weaker vs G3 majors (EUR, JPY and GBP) but USD maintaining a bid tone vs AxJ FX. Safe-haven proxies such as gold, JPY and CHF continue to stay supported." "Mild bullish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI fell. The pullback risk that we earlier flagged has played out. Resistance at 103.90/10 levels (21 DMA, 61.8% fibo retracement of Oct low to Jan high), 104.60 and 105 levels (50% fibo, 200 DMA). ""Near term this week, focus on ISM services tonight and payrolls tomorrow. Another softer print may reinforce growth concerns in the US and undermine US equity sentiments. But looking out, growth ultimately matters. If US growth becomes weaker as a result of its own doing (i.e. higher tariffs, protectionist measures) while growth for the rest of the world continues to hold up, then the USD may end up weaker over time."

13:13 Oil: Tariffs weigh on oil – ING
Oil prices are under pressure this morning, following other risk assets lower, after the Trump administration unveiled a base tariff of 10% on all imports from all trading partners.

Oil prices are under pressure this morning, following other risk assets lower, after the Trump administration unveiled a base tariff of 10% on all imports from all trading partners. WTI was down more than 3% at one stage in the early morning session and trading below US$70/bbl, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Scale of some of Trump’s tariffs to raise global demand concerns"President Trump’s latest levies will come into effect on 5 April. An additional tariff will be implemented on some trading partners, effective 9 April. For example, the reciprocal tariff on China is 34%, while the EU faces 20%. Meanwhile, Canada and Mexico are exempt from these latest tariffs. Oil and natural gas also appear to be exempt. The scale of some of Trump’s tariffs will raise global demand concerns. There’s also increased uncertainty, with markets waiting to see how trading partners retaliate.""Away from tariffs, OPEC+ is holding a call today to discuss the need for members to stick to production targets. OPEC+ is set to bring an additional 138k b/d of supply back to the market this month, part of plans to start gradually unwinding 2.2m b/d of supply cuts. We may also get clarity on whether the group will continue to unwind supply cuts next month. Yet even as OPEC+ brings supply back to the market, some members need to make compensation cuts for previous overproduction. This should more than offset the planned supply increases.""The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly inventory report was fairly bearish, with US crude oil inventories increasing by 6.17m barrels over the last week. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 2.37m barrels. The large build was driven by a 728k b/d week-on-week drop in crude exports. Crude oil imports increased by 271k b/d WoW. Furthermore, refinery utilisation fell by 1pp to 86%. For refined products, gasoline stocks fell by 1.55m barrels, while distillate stocks increased by 264k barrels."

13:06 AUD/USD: Set to continue trading in a choppy manner – UOB Group
AUD could continue to trade in a choppy manner, likely between 0.6220 and 0.6320. In the longer run, sharp but short-lived swings have resulted in a mixed outlook; AUD could trade in a 0.6185/0.6340 range for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

AUD could continue to trade in a choppy manner, likely between 0.6220 and 0.6320. In the longer run, sharp but short-lived swings have resulted in a mixed outlook; AUD could trade in a 0.6185/0.6340 range for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Sharp but short-lived swings have resulted in a mixed outlook24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, we expected AUD to 'trade in a 0.6250/0.6300' range. However, AUD swung sharply in a wide 0.6257/0.6341 range. The price action has resulted in a mixed outlook. Today, AUD could continue to trade in a choppy manner, likely between 0.6220 and 0.6320." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our latest narrative from Tuesday (01 Apr, spot at 0.6245), we highlighted that after the sharp drop on Monday, the increase in momentum indicates that AUD 'could continue to decline.' However, we pointed out, 'it is too early to determine if it can reach 0.6185.' During the late NY session, AUD rose above our ‘strong resistance’ level at 0.6300 (high of 0.6341) before dropping sharply. The outlook for AUD after the recent sharp but short-lived swings has resulted in a mixed outlook. For the time being, AUD could trade in a 0.6185/0.6340 range."

13:03 EUR/USD rallies as Trump’s reciprocal tariffs hit US Dollar hard
EUR/USD soars above the psychological figure of 1.1000 in Thursday’s European session. The major currency pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) takes the bullet for long-term transition in the United States (US) economy.

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The major currency pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) takes the bullet for long-term transition in the United States (US) economy. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, nosedives to near 102.00, the lowest level seen in almost six months.On Wednesday, US Council of Economic Advisers Chair Stephen Miran agreed that tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump could lead to short-term bumps in the economy but will be favorable for long-term prospects. His comments came after Trump unveiled planned reciprocal tariffs. Trump announced a 10% baseline duty on all imports to the US and additional specific levies on most of its trading allies. Some leaders from targeted nations have threatened to retaliate with countermeasures. Market participants expect Trump's tariffs will lead to a global economic slowdown, including in the US. Experts believe that new import duties are higher than expected and sufficient to send the US economy into a recession. Such a scenario paves the way for stagflation, assuming that higher levies will dampen efforts made by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to contain sticky inflationary pressures. This will complicate the Fed’s job of maintaining inflation near the 2% target with full employment.Going forward, investors will focus on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for March, which will be released on Friday. The official employment data will influence market expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy outlook. On Wednesday, the ADP Employment Change data showed that the private sector added 155K fresh workers in March, significantly higher than the expectations of 105K and the former release of 84K.In Thursday’s session, investors will pay close attention to the S&P Global and the ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for March, which will be published during North American trading hours. The S&P Global Services PMI is estimated to align with the preliminary reading of 54.3. The ISM Services PMI is expected to come in lower at 53.0 from February’s reading of 53.5, suggesting that activities in the services sector grew moderately.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD strengthens despite ECB Stournaras supports more interest rate cutsSheer strength in the EUR/USD pair is also driven by outperformance from the Euro (EUR). The shared currency strengthens even though fears of a potential trade war between the US and the Eurozone have escalated after Trump announced 20% reciprocal tariffs on the European Union (EU).European Commission (EC) President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the consequences will be “dire for millions of people around the globe”. She warned that the old continent is prepared to retaliate with countermeasures if negotiations with Washington end without a healthy conclusion. Von der Leyen further added that the EC is already finalising the “first package of countermeasures” in response to tariffs on steel and is now preparing for further countermeasures to protect our “businesses and interests”.Last month, von der Leyen warned of imposing tariffs on up to 26 billion Euros worth of imports from the US as a countermeasure for Trump's sweeping 25% levies on steel and aluminum imports, which became effective on March 12.Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) officials have ruled out expectations that tariff-driven inflation could dent hopes of more interest rate cuts. During European trading hours, ECB policymaker and Governor of Bank of Greece Yannis Stournaras said that US tariffs will not be an “obstacle to April rate cut” as the inflation path remains “unchanged”. Stournaras guided that US tariffs will “negatively impact” the Euro area Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate by “0.3%-0.4%” in the first year.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD gains sharply to near 1.1030EUR/USD rallies to near 1.1030 on Thursday after a decisive breakout above the prior resistance of 1.0955, trading at levels not seen since early October. The near-term outlook of the major currency pair has turned extremely bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) resumes its upside journey, trading around 1.0800.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) jumps around 70.00 after cooling down to near 60.00, suggesting that the bullish momentum has resumed.Looking down, the mid-March resistance zone around 1.0955 is the first support to consider, followed by the March 31 high of 1.0850. Conversely, the September 25 high of 1.1214 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

12:53 Gold: Tariff relief for the metal industry – ING
Gold hit a record high following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Gold hit a record high following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Gold flows into the US may slow down"Gold hit a record high following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, with spot prices nearing US$3,170/oz at one stage. These tariffs will raise global growth concerns. There will also be uncertainty over how trading partners retaliate, which is likely to continue to support gold.""However, the tariff announcement did provide some relief to metal markets. It's becoming clear that steel and aluminium imports won't be subject to these tariffs. The same with gold and copper. The exemption for gold means that we could start seeing a slowing of gold flows into the US."

12:49 Asian trading nations are being hit hard – ING
A pair like CNH/JPY best characterises the mood in FX markets, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

A pair like CNH/JPY best characterises the mood in FX markets, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Pessimism about US domestic demand is growing "Asian trading nations are being hit hard with tariffs since the bloc comprises around 60% of the US annual goods deficit. The offshore USD/CNH is sharply higher, although we expect authorities will continue to hold the line in the onshore USD/CNY. Expect an increased focus on the daily PBoC fixings in USD/CNY. Any near-term fixing over 7.20 would trigger another leg lower in Asian FX on the fear that Chinese authorities might tolerate a weaker renminbi after all.""But away from Asia, the dollar is being sold against the big, liquid defensive currencies of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc and, to a lesser degree, the euro. Here, the blowback of US tariffs onto the US domestic economy leaves the dollar naked. US rates continue to be marked lower, and not until we get some surprisingly good news from the US on tax cuts or deregulation may the dollar start to find some support. Indeed, the dollar sell-off could prove a little problematic for Washington in that it had expectations that the dollar would rally on tariffs to provide insulation to the US consumer from higher import prices." "And again, this is unlike 2017/18, where a major tax cut went through before tariffs were announced. With pessimism growing about US domestic demand, expect investors to continue using short USD/JPY positions to express this view. 147.00 is pretty strong support, but heavy US equity losses today could drag it back to the 145 area."

12:34 USD: Blowback to US growth prospects dominates – ING
The trade-weighted DXY has broken to a new low for the year as investors continue to fear what these new reciprocal tariffs mean for US confidence and activity, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

The trade-weighted DXY has broken to a new low for the year as investors continue to fear what these new reciprocal tariffs mean for US confidence and activity, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Softer risk assets can drag DXY towards the 102.00 area today"This uncertainty has been a key factor driving US equities lower this year and prompting both a dovish re-pricing of the Fed cycle and a weaker dollar. At the time of writing, S&P 500 June index futures are marked to decline around 3% – and this follows a 3% drop in benchmark equity indices across Asia. At the heart of the story is Donald Trump delivering on his promise to restructure the global trading system. His incentives are clearly laid out in his Executive Order. In reality, the outcome is about as bad as it could be." "China tariffs are virtually now at 60%, EU tariffs are at 20% and there's a baseline universal tariff of 10%. Given that these tariffs are being presented at 'discounted rates', there is also the potential for them to be increased in the event of retaliation. The jeopardy of a global trade war remains, and hence we're seeing no relief rally in risk assets on the view that all the bad news is out the way and things are as bad as they can get.""For today's session, look out for the weekly jobs initial claims data and then ISM Services. We should also be on the potential lookout for European retaliation in the services sector, since the US runs a large surplus with Europe in this area. DXY has nearly retraced 75% of the Trump rally since October. Softer risk assets can drag it towards the 102.00 area today."

12:33 Gold price falls as markets reposition on Trump’s tariffs, the highest in over 100 years
Gold price (XAU/USD) falls after initially hitting a fresh all-time high at $3,167 in the early Asian session. Traders are starting to take profit, pushing the Bullion price to $3,130 at the time of writing on Thursday.

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Markets are shaky after US President Trump issued the most harsh tariffs in over a century. Gold traders are starting to take profit on the ‘sell the fact’ narrative. Gold price (XAU/USD) falls after initially hitting a fresh all-time high at $3,167 in the early Asian session. Traders are starting to take profit, pushing the Bullion price to $3,130 at the time of writing on Thursday. Markets see all asset classes absorbing the overnight shocking statement from United States (US) President Donald Trump, who unleashed his reciprocal tariff plan onto the world. Traders are still mulling over the meaning of the announcement where a global base tariff of 10% is the minimum to apply to any country in the world importing into the US. From there, all other earlier levies remain in place, which means, for example, a total of 54% tariff on China applicable as of this Thursday. Markets are seeing safe haven flow with Equities dropping multiple percentages globally, bond yields falling as Bonds are bid and the US Dollar (USD) devaluing against all major currencies. Daily digest market movers: Can it get any worse than this?Asian Gold producers rise after the precious metal hit a record high as US President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs stoke fears of a global economic slowdown and raise demand for haven assets, Bloomberg reports. The move goes against the overall global selloff seen in Equities. The CME FedWatch tool sees chances for an interest rate cut in May standing at 21.5%. A cut in June is still the most plausible outcome, with only a 27.5% chance for rates to remain at current levels. In the overall yield curve a shift is noticed that a longer pause from the Fed might play out here. Going back to the White House fact sheet in detail, Steel, Aluminum, Gold and Copper imports won’t be subject to reciprocal tariffs, providing at least some relief to domestic buyers who are already bearing the cost of 25% tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Act of 1962 on all imports of some key metals, Reuters reports. Gold Price Technical Analysis: Buy the rumor, sell the factA logical turn of events is taking place in Gold price this Thursday as the dust settles over the implementation of reciprocal tariffs by the Trump administration. The “buy the rumor, sell the fact” was the proverb FXStreet was already alluding to in past articles, and that is currently playing out. With negotiations and possible deals being brokered between the US and other countries to circumvent Trump’s tariffs, sentiment can only improve from here, meaning a softening in the Gold price.On the contrary, should countries start to issue retaliation tariffs, Gold could stretch higher with fresh all-time highs being forecasted. On the upside, the daily R1 resistance at $3,149 is the first level that needs to be reclaimed again, followed by the $3,167 fresh all-time high. That roughly coincides with the R2 resistance at $3,165. Beyond that, the broader upside target stands at $3,200.On the downside, the S1 support at $3,111 is quite close, though it could still be tested without completely erasing this week’s gains. From a technical point of view, avoiding a break of this week’s low is essential. Further down, the S2 support at $3,089 should ensure that Gold does not fall back below $3,000.XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

12:31 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

12:03 Spain 3-y Bond Auction: 2.292% vs previous 2.487%
Spain 3-y Bond Auction: 2.292% vs previous 2.487%

12:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.2%, above forecasts (0.1%) in February
Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.2%, above forecasts (0.1%) in February

12:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 1.8% to 3% in February
Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 1.8% to 3% in February

12:00 France 10-y Bond Auction dipped from previous 3.51% to 3.37%
France 10-y Bond Auction dipped from previous 3.51% to 3.37%

11:47 EUR/USD: Bias for EUR is on the upside – UOB Group
Outlook is unclear; Euro (EUR) could continue to trade in a choppy manner vs US Dollar (USD), probably between 1.0810 and 1.0955.

Outlook is unclear; Euro (EUR) could continue to trade in a choppy manner vs US Dollar (USD), probably between 1.0810 and 1.0955. In the longer run, bias for EUR is on the upside; the 1.0955/1.0985 zone is expected to offer solid resistance, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. EUR can continue to trade in a choppy manner24-HOUR VIEW: "We expected EUR to “trade in a lower range of 1.0770/1.0820” yesterday. EUR subsequently dipped to 1.0779, but during the late NY session, it swung wildly before closing at 1.0855 (+0.57%). The outlook is unclear after the volatile price action. Today, EUR could continue to trade in a choppy manner, probably between 1.0810 and 1.0955."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Two days ago (01 Apr, spot at 1.0815), we pointed out that “the current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, and EUR is expected to trade in a 1.0730/1.0845 range for now.” Yesterday, in a sudden move, EUR jumped, reaching a high of 1.0924. While there has been an increase in upward momentum, it is too early to expect a significant rise for now. Overall, the bias for EUR is on the upside but note that the 1.0955/1.0985 zone is expected to offer solid resistance. To sustain the momentum, EUR must remain above 1.0770."

11:45 EUR/USD: Bulls to gain further traction above 1.10 – OCBC
Euro (EUR) jumped post-tariff announcement. Reciprocal tariff rate of 20% on EU was largely in line with street’s estimates. EUR was last seen at 1.0964 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Euro (EUR) jumped post-tariff announcement. Reciprocal tariff rate of 20% on EU was largely in line with street’s estimates. EUR was last seen at 1.0964 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Bearish momentum on daily chart shows signs of fading"We remain cautious as other tariffs on alcohol (200% tariff), lumber, semiconductors and pharmaceutical drugs may still be forthcoming in the coming weeks. Tariff imposition may still weigh on EUR. Earlier, EU members were considering deploying its anti-coercion instrument, which could lead to restrictions on trade and services, intellectual property rights, foreign direct investment, and access to public procurement. But at the same time, EU is also identifying concessions it is willing to make to secure the partial removal of US tariffs.""Bearish momentum on daily chart shows signs of fading while RSI rose. Next resistance at 1.1020 levels. Support at 1.0850 (21 DMA), 1.0820 levels (61.8% fibo retracement of Oct high to Jan low). We had earlier shared our bias - look for dips to buy into, considering the emergence of several positive factors, including EU defence spending (supportive of growth), chance that ECB easing may slow and prospects of a complete ceasefire in Ukraine at some point. The rare display of responsiveness and concerted willingness of European leaders to spend on defence gave EUR a fresh boost. More importantly, growth matters.""While US is a major economic powerhouse, other big nations such as EU (18.4%) and China (16.6%) should not be written off. For EU, massive defence spending can be supportive of growth while in China, there are some signs of tentative economic stabilisation. If US growth slumps as a result of its own doing while growth for the rest of the world holds up, USD may end up weaker. Alongside ballooning US debt, fading US exceptionalism and US protectionism measures, USD as a reserve currency status may even be questioned, leading to a hunt for the next alternative reserve currency. That said, this process may still take time."

11:31 EUR: Rallying, but few reasons to be cheerful – ING
EUR/USD is net around 0.9% higher after the trade announcement. The main buying point for the euro is that it's a big, liquid alternative to the US Dollar – and that the dollar's troubles (weaker US consumption) are greater than the Euro's, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

EUR/USD is net around 0.9% higher after the trade announcement. The main buying point for the euro is that it's a big, liquid alternative to the US Dollar – and that the dollar's troubles (weaker US consumption) are greater than the Euro's, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Major medium-term resistance sits in the 1.11/12 area"We also think that some medium-term factors are in place in that Washington does want a weaker dollar and that some major investor communities such as FX reserve managers will be looking to reduce the dollar share in their FX portfolio. Also, a lot of the language in Trump's Executive Order is very similar to that used in Stephen Miran's Mar-a-Lago accord paper – espousing the need for a weaker dollar in the longer term.""While a global trade war in theory is a euro-negative, the soft underbelly of the US economy is the dominant factor for EUR/USD right now. A much sharper sell-off in US equities, dragging US rates even lower, adds another nail in the coffin of US exceptionalism and could send EUR/USD over 1.10. Major medium-term resistance sits in the 1.11/12 area. It's hard to call a major break of that unless US activity craters.""For the time being, however, expect EUR/USD to trade off the US equity story, where memories will be stirred of protectionism causing major sell-offs."

11:31 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI below expectations (52) in March: Actual (51.5)
United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI below expectations (52) in March: Actual (51.5)

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI below forecasts (53.2) in March: Actual (52.5)
United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI below forecasts (53.2) in March: Actual (52.5)

11:13 India Gold price today: Gold corrects in the aftermath of Trump's tariffs reveal
Gold price in India retreats from record highs on Thursday, following a similar price acton in Comex Gold.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold price in India retreats from record highs on Thursday, following a similar price acton in Comex Gold. Traders are resorting to cashing in on their Gold long positions as the uncertainty around US President Donald Trump's 'reciprocal tariffs' has fnally waned. Late Wednesday. Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on most goods imported to the US, with much higher duties on products from dozens of countries, including its major trading partners - China, Japan and the European Union (EU). At the press time, Gold price is trading at 8,605.97 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with Wednesday's close of INR 8,620.08, according to data compiled by FXStreet. Gold price corrected to INR 100,377.60 per tola after finishing Wednesday at INR 100,543.00 per tola. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,605.97 10 Grams 86,058.98 Tola 100,377.60 Troy Ounce 267,677.30 Global Market Movers: Gold price struggles to capitalize on intraday gains inspired by Trump's tariffs US President Donald Trump imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all imports and higher duties on some of the country's biggest trading partners, sending shockwaves through global financial markets. In response, China’s Commerce Ministry stated that it will resolutely take countermeasures to safeguard its rights and interests. The developments raise the risk of a widening trade war, which could upset global free trade and impact negatively on the world economy. This, in turn, boosted demand for traditional safe-haven assets. Apart from this, the emergence of heavy US Dollar selling pushes the Gold price to a fresh record high on Thursday. Investors now seem worried that Trump's protectionist policies could potentially send the US economy into a recession and are pricing in a 70% chance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs in June. Moreover, the anti-risk flow drags the US Treasury bond yields lower across the board, undermining the USD. On the economic data front, the US ADP reported on Wednesday that private-sector employers added 155K jobs in March – far more than the 105K expected and the previous month's revised reading of 84K. This, however, did little to impress the USD bulls amid concerns about the economic fallout from Trump's trade policies. Traders now look forward to the US economic docket – the release of the usual Weekly Jobless Claims and the US ISM Services PMI. Apart from this, trade-related headlines might influence the USD and provide some impetus to the XAU/USD pair ahead of the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

11:07 Pound Sterling rallies against US Dollar as Trump tariffs stoke recession fears
The Pound Sterling (GBP) surges above 1.3100 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading hours on Thursday, the highest level seen in almost six months.

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The GBP/USD pair soars as the US Dollar plummets after United States (US) President Donald Trump unveils worse-than-expected tariffs for his trading partners. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, tumbles to near 102.70.US President Trump announced a 10% baseline duty on all products entering the US and additional specific levies on the majority of its trading allies, which have followed threats of countermeasures by their leaders. Market participants expect that the full-scale implementation of tariffs will lead the US economy to a recession. Such a scenario underpins the need for more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) despite knowing that higher levies have also stoked worries about persistent inflation.US Council of Economic Advisers Chair Stephen Miran also agreed to expectations that Trump’s protectionist policies could lead to “short-term bumps” in the economy, as per his interview with Fox Business. However, he clarified that the president is focused on “long-term economic transition” and improvement in the “durability, sustainability and fairness” of the American economy with respect to the rest of the world.Going forward, investors will pay attention to the US S&P Global and the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for March, which will be published during North American trading hours. The US S&P Global Services PMI is estimated to remain in line with preliminary expectations of 54.3. The US ISM Services PMI is expected to come in lower at 53.0 from February’s reading of 53.5, suggesting that activities in the services sector grew moderately.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling is expected to outperformThe Pound Sterling exhibits a different performance with each of its major peers on Thursday. The outlook of the British currency appears to be healthier as US President Trump has imposed the lowest tariffs on the United Kingdom (UK). Trump slapped a 10% levy on Britain, which was the minimal figure seen in the reciprocal tariff chart.The lower tariffs by Trump on the UK don’t indicate that the impact on the economic outlook will be limited. UK firms would face tough competition in the global market from businesses of those nations that have attracted fat import duties from the US. Higher tariffs on those companies will make their products less competitive in the US, forcing them to offer lower prices globally.Contrary to other leaders who are preparing for countermeasures against Trump’s tariffs, the UK is unlikely to retaliate. Before tariffs were revealed, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said, “I really do think it is not sensible to say the first response should be to jump into trade war with the US as government braces itself for the announcement of widespread taxes on imports," according to BBC News. However, he didn’t rule out that the administration has been actively preparing for all “eventualities” ahead of President Trump's announcement of “planned tariffs”.In Thursday’s session, investors await the release of revised UK S&P Global/CIPS Composite and Services PMI data for March, which will be published at 08:30 GMT. The Composite and Services PMI are expected to have remained in line with preliminary expectations of 52.0 and 53.2, respectively.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling climbs above 1.3110The Pound Sterling rallies to near 1.3110 against the US Dollar after building base around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, plotted from late-September high to mid-January low, near 1.2930. The upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2922 suggests the near-term outlook is bullish.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) jumps around 70.00 after cooling down to near 60.00, indicating that the bullish momentum has resumed.Looking down, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2930 will act as a key support zone for the pair. On the upside, the September 26 high of 1.3434 will act as a key resistance zone. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 51, above expectations (50.4) in March
Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 51, above expectations (50.4) in March

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI above expectations (50.4) in March: Actual (50.9)
Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI above expectations (50.4) in March: Actual (50.9)

10:56 Forex Today: US Dollar under heavy pressure as trade war deepens
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, April 3:

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The European Central Bank (ECB) will publish Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts and the US economic calendar will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims and March ISM Services PMI data later in the day. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -1.25% -1.48% -1.78% -0.92% -0.27% -0.87% -1.29% EUR 1.25% -0.13% -0.52% 0.37% 1.08% 0.43% 0.00% GBP 1.48% 0.13% -0.39% 0.55% 1.21% 0.59% 0.16% JPY 1.78% 0.52% 0.39% 0.90% 1.61% 0.99% 0.42% CAD 0.92% -0.37% -0.55% -0.90% 0.71% 0.06% -0.38% AUD 0.27% -1.08% -1.21% -1.61% -0.71% -0.62% -1.07% NZD 0.87% -0.43% -0.59% -0.99% -0.06% 0.62% -0.45% CHF 1.29% -0.01% -0.16% -0.42% 0.38% 1.07% 0.45% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The Trump administration announced on "Liberation Day" that they will impose a 10% baseline tariff, effective April 5, on all imports to the US. United Kingdom, Australia and Saudi Arabia will be among the countries that will only face this base rate. Canada and Mexico will be exempt from this 10% increase. Officials will also impose higher reciprocal tariffs, which will go into effect on April 9, on about 60 countries they describe as "worst offenders." The European Union, China and Japan will face 20%, 54% and 24% tariffs, respectively, under this new regime. Additionally, Trump confirmed that they will impose 25% tariffs on all foreign-made automobiles. Following the tariff announcements, the USD Index fell 0.5% on Wednesday and extended its slide during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. At the time of press, the USD Index was down more than 1% on the day near 102.50.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen responded to US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs early Thursday, calling them a major blow to the world economy. "We are preparing a further package of measures to protect our interests," she added. EUR/USD gathers bullish momentum and trades at its highest level since early October above 1.0960 in the European session.GBP/USD rallies higher and trades at its strongest level in six months above 1.3100.USD/CAD loses more than 0.5% on the day and trades below 1.4200, while USD/MXN falls about 0.7% on the day. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said late Wednesday that the country will fight Trump's tariffs with countermeasuresAfter posting small losses on Wednesday, USD/JPY declines sharply and trades near 147.00, losing nearly 1.5% on a daily basis.Gold touched a new record-high above $3,160 in the Asian session but lost its traction. At the time of press, XAU/USD was trading marginally lower on the day at $3,125.Earlier in the day, the data from China showed that the Caixin Services PMI improved to 51.9 in March from 51.4 in February. China’s Commerce Ministry reiterated on Thursday that it firmly opposes US tariffs and will "resolutely take countermeasures to safeguard its rights and interests.” AUD/USD struggles to benefit from the broad-based selling pressure surrounding the USD and trades marginally higher on the day at around 0.6300. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

10:56 Palladium price today: Rare metals mixed at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

10:55 Germany HCOB Services PMI came in at 50.9, above expectations (50.2) in March
Germany HCOB Services PMI came in at 50.9, above expectations (50.2) in March

10:55 Crude oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Thursday, early in the European session.

10:55 Germany HCOB Composite PMI came in at 51.3, above expectations (50.9) in March
Germany HCOB Composite PMI came in at 51.3, above expectations (50.9) in March

10:50 France HCOB Composite PMI came in at 48, above forecasts (47) in March
France HCOB Composite PMI came in at 48, above forecasts (47) in March

10:50 France HCOB Services PMI above forecasts (46.6) in March: Actual (47.9)
France HCOB Services PMI above forecasts (46.6) in March: Actual (47.9)

10:45 Italy HCOB Services PMI below expectations (52.5) in March: Actual (52)
Italy HCOB Services PMI below expectations (52.5) in March: Actual (52)

10:40 ECB’s de Guindos: This uncertainty means we need to be extremely
European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Thursday, “in terms of monetary policy, this uncertainty means we need to be extremely prudent when determining the appropriate stance.”

European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Thursday, “in terms of monetary policy, this uncertainty means we need to be extremely prudent when determining the appropriate stance.”The ECB policymaker is referring to the global trade uncertainty.Market reactionEUR/USD was last seen trading 0.96% higher on the day near 1.0960.

10:35 ECB’s Stournaras: US tariffs not an obstacle to April rate cut
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Yannis Stournaras said on Thursday, “US tariffs not an obstacle to April rate cut.”

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Yannis Stournaras said on Thursday, “US tariffs not an obstacle to April rate cut.”Additional quotesUS tariffs will impact economic growth.US tariffs to negatively impact euro area GDP growth rate by 0.3% to 0.4% in first year.The inflation path remains unchanged.

10:15 Spain HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (55.5) in March: Actual (54.7)
Spain HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (55.5) in March: Actual (54.7)

10:01 Turkey Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (38.9%) in March: Actual (38.1%)
Turkey Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (38.9%) in March: Actual (38.1%)

10:00 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $33.00, further consolidation cannot be ruled out
The Silver price (XAG/USD) falls to near $33.15 during the early European session on Thursday, pressured by some profit-taking.

10:00 Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (3%) in March: Actual (2.46%)
Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (3%) in March: Actual (2.46%)

09:52 ECB’s Nagel: Will have to reassess the situation
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said on Thursday that “the ECB will have to reassess the situation.”

09:51 EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates edge higher at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade on the front foot at the beginning of Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

09:30 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0%) in March
Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0%) in March

09:30 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 0.3% below forecasts (0.5%) in March
Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 0.3% below forecasts (0.5%) in March

09:00 Russia S&P Global Services PMI down to 50.1 in March from previous 50.5
Russia S&P Global Services PMI down to 50.1 in March from previous 50.5

08:48 EUR/USD gathers strength to near 1.0950 after Trump tariff announcement
The EUR/USD pair climbs to around 1.0950 during the early Asian session on Thursday.

08:07 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Sticks to strong gains near multi-month top, above mid-1.3000s
The GBP/USD pair gains strong follow-through positive traction for the second successive day on Thursday and advances to its highest level since October 2024 during the Asian session.

07:26 Gold price buying remains unabated; fresh record highs being set amid risk-off mood
Gold price (XAU/USD) shot to a fresh record high during the Asian session on Thursday as investors rushed to take refuge in traditional safe-haven assets amid the risk-off impulse.

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Gold price (XAU/USD) shot to a fresh record high during the Asian session on Thursday as investors rushed to take refuge in traditional safe-haven assets amid the risk-off impulse. US President Donald Trump announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday evening, sparking concerns about global economic growth and a recession in the US. This, in turn, sparked a severe risk-off move, which is evident from a sea of red across the equity markets, and provided a strong boost to bullion.
Meanwhile, the anti-risk flow, along with the growing acceptance that a tariff-driven US economic slowdown, would force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its rate-cutting cycle soon and trigger a steep decline in the US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, dragged the US Dollar (USD) back closer to a multi-month low touched in March and further benefited the non-yielding Gold price. That said, extremely overbought conditions keep a lid on any further appreciating move for the XAU/USD pair.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price prolongs the uptrend amid Trump’s tariffs-inspired global flight to safetyUS President Donald Trump imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all imports and higher duties on some of the country's biggest trading partners, sending shockwaves through global financial markets. In response, China’s Commerce Ministry stated that it will resolutely take countermeasures to safeguard its rights and interests.The developments raise the risk of a widening trade war, which could upset global free trade and impact negatively on the world economy. This, in turn, boosted demand for traditional safe-haven assets. Apart from this, the emergence of heavy US Dollar selling pushes the Gold price to a fresh record high on Thursday.Investors now seem worried that Trump's protectionist policies could potentially send the US economy into a recession and are pricing in a 70% chance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs in June. Moreover, the anti-risk flow drags the US Treasury bond yields lower across the board, undermining the USD.On the economic data front, the US ADP reported on Wednesday that private-sector employers added 155K jobs in March – far more than the 105K expected and the previous month's revised reading of 84K. This, however, did little to impress the USD bulls amid concerns about the economic fallout from Trump's trade policies. Traders now look forward to the US economic docket – the release of the usual Weekly Jobless Claims and the US ISM Services PMI. Apart from this, trade-related headlines might influence the USD and provide some impetus to the XAU/USD pair ahead of the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
Gold price needs to consolidate its recent gains before the next leg up amid bearish daily RSI

From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart continues to flash overbought conditions and holds back the XAU/USD bulls from placing fresh bets. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for an extension of a multi-month-old strong uptrend. Nevertheless, the broader setup seems tilted firmly in favor of bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the upside.
Hence, any corrective slide below the Asian session low, around the $3,123 area, could be seen as a buying opportunity. This, in turn, should help limit the downside for the XAU/USD pair near the $3,100 mark, which should now act as a key pivotal point. A convincing break below, however, might prompt some long-unwinding and drag the Gold price to the $3,076 area, or the weekly swing low touched on Monday, en route to the $3,057-3,058 region, the $3,036-3,035 zone and the $3,000 psychological mark. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

06:37 EC President von der Leyen: US tariffs are a major blow to the world economy
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen responded to US President Donald Trump’s ‘reciprocal tariffs’ on Thursday, noting that “US tariffs are a major blow to the world economy.”

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen responded to US President Donald Trump’s ‘reciprocal tariffs’ on Thursday, noting that “US tariffs are a major blow to the world economy.”Additional quotes“The consequences will be dire for millions of people around the world.”“All businesses will suffer.”“There seems to be no order in the disorder.”“Agrees with Trump that others are taking unfair advantage of the current rules.”“EU has always been ready to negotiate with the US.”“Preparing for further counter measures on US tariffs if negotiations fail.”“We are ready to respond.”“We are preparing further package of measures to protect our interests.”“Many feel let down by our old ally.”Market reactionThe Euro (EUR) pays little heed to these headlines, as EUR/USD adds 0.54% on the day to trade near 1.0920 as of writing.

06:29 USD/INR jumps as Trump imposes a 26% tariff directed at India
The Indian Rupee (INR) remains under selling pressure on Thursday, pressured by the weakening in Asian equity and currency markets after US President Donald Trump imposed broad-based tariffs.

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Nonetheless, a fall in crude oil prices could help limit the Indian currency’s losses. It’s worth noting that India is the world's third-largest oil consumer, and lower crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the INR value. Looking ahead, investors brace for the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the final S&P Global Services PMI, and the ISM Services PMI, which are due later on Thursday. On Friday, all eyes will be on the US March Nonfarm Payrolls report. Indian Rupee tumbles after new tariffs announcement by Trump Trump said at the White House while announcing the reciprocal tax. ”They (India) are charging us 52% and we charge almost nothing for years and years and decades.” The final reading of India’s HSBC Manufacturing PMI rose to 58.1 in March, compared to the first estimates and the consensus of 57.6. In March, the Indian Rupee posted its best monthly performance in more than six years, bolstered by foreign portfolio and other inflows, coupled with a scaling back of bearish wagers. Foreign investors bought nearly $4 billion of Indian equities and bonds, a significant reversal from approximately $12 billion in outflows seen in January and February. The Trump administration on Wednesday announced that the US will impose a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the United States and slap additional duties on around 60 nations with the largest trade imbalances with the US. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent late Wednesday warned trading partners that any retaliation to the barrage of new tariffs from the White House would only result in further escalation. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said on Wednesday that rising tariffs in the US could feed into more prolonged inflation than might be expected, per Reuters. USD/INR keeps the bearish vibe despite a bullish retaliation The Indian Rupee trades in negative territory on the day. According to the daily chart, the negative view of the USD/INR pair remains intact as the price is below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The downward momentum is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is located below the midline near 38.15.

The initial support level for USD/INR emerges at 85.42, the low of April 2. The next contention level to watch is the 85.00 psychological level. Further south, the downside target is seen at 84.84, the low of December 19.

The first upside barrier for the pair is located at the 85.90-86.00 region, representing the 100-day EMA and round figure. A decisive break above this level could see a rally to 86.48, the low of February 21, en route to 87.00, the round mark. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

05:54 WTI trims part of tariffs-inspired losses, finds some support near $69.00 mark
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices extend the previous day's retracement slide from the $72.00 neighborhood, or the highest level since February 21, and attract heavy follow-through selling during the Asian session on Thursday.

05:27 China's Commerce Ministry: Will take countermeasures on Trump's tariffs
Responding to US President Donald Trump's “reciprocal tariffs” on Thursday, China’s Commerce Ministry stated that it “firmly opposes U.S. tariffs and will resolutely take countermeasures to safeguard its rights and interests.”

05:26 Japanese Yen spikes to multi-week high against USD after Trump’s tariffs announcement
The Japanese Yen (JPY) jumped to a three-week top against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday after US President Donald Trump imposed sweeping trade tariffs.

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The Japanese Yen (JPY) jumped to a three-week top against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday after US President Donald Trump imposed sweeping trade tariffs. Investors grew increasingly concerned that the move could reshape the global trading system and dent global economic growth. This, in turn, triggers a fresh wave of the risk-aversion trade and boosts demand for traditional safe-haven assets, including the JPY. Meanwhile, the anti-risk flow leads to a steep decline in the US Treasury bond yields, resulting in the further narrowing of the US-Japan rate differential and benefiting the lower-yielding JPY. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, dives back closer to a multi-month low touched in March amid worries about the impact of an escalating global trade on the US economy. This, along with a slew of weaker-than-expected US data, stoked recession fears. The outlook might force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its rate-cutting cycle soon. In contrast, traders have been pricing in the possibility of more interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) amid signs of broadening domestic inflation. This, in turn, should contribute to the JPY's relative outperformance, which, along with the prevalent bearish sentiment surrounding the USD, suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is to the downside. Japanese Yen attracts safe-haven flows as Trump’s new tariffs fuel economic concerns and rattle global markets The global risk sentiment took a turn for the worst after US President Donald Trump unveiled reciprocal tariffs of at least 10% on all imported goods, sparking concerns over slowing global economic growth. Stock markets around the world plunged in reaction to the US tariffs announcement, lifting the safe-haven Japanese Yen to a three-week high against the US Dollar during the Asian session on Thursday. The anti-risk flow saw most global government bond yields fall, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond tumbling to the 4.0% neighborhood and hitting a fresh year-to-date low. Traders lifted bets that the Federal Reserve will start lowering borrowing costs at the June policy meeting and deliver a total of three 25-basis-point reductions to the policy rate by the end of this year. This, to a larger extent, overshadows Wednesday's upbeat US ADP report, which showed that private-sector employers added 155K jobs in March, far more than the 105K expected and 84K previous. Meanwhile, worries about the impact of harsher-than-expected US tariffs on Japan's economy forced investors to scale back their bets that the Bank of Japan would raise policy rate at a faster pace. However, the incoming macro data, including strong consumer inflation figures from Tokyo released last Friday, keeps the door open for further BoJ rate hikes, which, in turn, underpins the JPY. Traders now look forward to Thursday's US economic docket – featuring Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the ISM Services PMI. The focus, however, will remain on trade-related developments. USD/JPY seems vulnerable to weaken further; fresh breakdown below 100-period SMA on 4-hour chart in play From a technical perspective, the intraday slump below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart comes on top of the recent breakdown through a multi-week-old ascending channel. This, along with bearish oscillators on the daily chart, supports prospects for a further near-term depreciation for the USD/JPY pair. Hence, a subsequent fall towards the 147.25 intermediate support, en route to the 147.00 mark and the 146.55-146.50 region or a multi-month low touched in March, looks like a distinct possibility. On the flip side, any attempted recovery might now confront some resistance near the 148.00 round figure. A sustained move, however, could trigger a short-covering rally towards the 148.65-148.70 region. That said, a further move up, is likely to attract fresh sellers near the 149.00 mark, which should cap the USD/JPY pair near the 149.35-149.40 region, or the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if cleared decisively might negate the negative outlook and pave the way for additional near-term gains. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

05:00 AUD/USD remains weak below 0.6300 despite upbeat Chinese PMI data
The AUD/USD pair remains under selling pressure around 0.6280 during the early Asian session on Thursday.

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The Trump administration on Wednesday announced that the US will impose a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the United States (USD) and slap additional duties on around 60 nations with the largest trade imbalances with the US. China was hit hard, facing a tariff of at least 54% on many goods. The policy announcement prompted traders to go into risk-off mode and exert some selling pressure on the Aussie as China is a major trading partner to Australia.

The encouraging Chinese economic released on Thursday could help limit the AUD’s losses. China’s Caixin Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) improved to 51.9 in March from 51.4 in February. This figure came in stronger than the 51.6 expected.

Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed that the country’s trade surplus decreased to 2,968M MoM in February versus 5,600M expected and 5,156M (revised from 5,620M) in January. Meanwhile, Australia's Exports fell by 3.6% MoM in February from 0.8% (revised from 1.3%) seen a month earlier. Imports rose by 1.6% MoM in February, compared to a fall of 4.0% (revised from -0.3%) reported in January.

On the other hand, the concerns over the economic slowdown in the US might undermine the USD in the near term. Traders will keep an eye on the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the final S&P Global Services PMI, and the ISM Services PMI. If the reports show weaker-than-expected outcomes, these could drag the USD lower and create a tailwind for AUD/USD. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

04:46 China’s Caixin Services PMI rises to 51.9 in March vs. 51.6 expected
China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 51.9 in March from 51.4 in February, the latest data published by Caixin showed Thursday.

04:45 China Caixin Services PMI came in at 51.9, above expectations (51.6) in March
China Caixin Services PMI came in at 51.9, above expectations (51.6) in March

04:31 RBA FSR: US tariffs could have a chilling effect on business investment and consumer spending
In its Financial Stability Review (FSR) published on Thursday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) warned that the US “tariffs could have a chilling effect on business investment and consumer spending.”

04:29 US Treasury Sec. Bessent warns other countries not to retaliate against US tariffs
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent late Wednesday warned trading partners that any retaliation to the barrage of new tariffs from the White House would only result in further escalation.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1889 vs. 7.1793 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.1889 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1793 and 7.2532 Reuters estimate.

03:45 Australia’s Trade Surplus decreases to 2,968M MoM in February vs. 5,600M expected
Australia’s trade surplus decreased to 2,968M MoM in February versus 5,600M expected and 5,156M (revised from 5,620M) in the previous reading, according to the latest foreign trade data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday.

03:36 Australia Trade Balance (MoM) below forecasts (5600M) in February: Actual (2968M)
Australia Trade Balance (MoM) below forecasts (5600M) in February: Actual (2968M)

03:36 Australia Imports (MoM) up to 1.6% in February from previous -0.3%
Australia Imports (MoM) up to 1.6% in February from previous -0.3%

03:36 Australia Exports (MoM) declined to -3.6% in February from previous 1.3%
Australia Exports (MoM) declined to -3.6% in February from previous 1.3%

03:31 Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI above forecasts (49.5) in March: Actual (50)
Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI above forecasts (49.5) in March: Actual (50)

03:13 NZD/USD remains under selling pressure below 0.5750 on new Trump tariffs
The NZD/USD pair faces some selling pressure to near 0.5730 during the early Asian session on Thursday.

03:05 New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price dipped from previous 3% to -0.4% in March
New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price dipped from previous 3% to -0.4% in March

03:01 Ireland Purchasing Manager Index Services: 55.3 (March) vs 53.2
Ireland Purchasing Manager Index Services: 55.3 (March) vs 53.2

02:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks increased to ¥-450.4B in March 28 from previous ¥-1206B
Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks increased to ¥-450.4B in March 28 from previous ¥-1206B

02:20 EUR/USD pares post-tariff gains, but maintains bullish stance
On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair saw a bullish surge after the Trump administration announced tariffs that turned out to be less severe than many investors had anticipated, given President Donald Trump’s barrage of tariff threats over the last 72 days.

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While the specifics of these tariff proposals are intricate, US consumers should prepare for a uniform 10% tariff on all imports, a hefty 25% tariff on all cars and car parts, and varying' reciprocal” tariffs imposed at different rates depending on the country. Additionally, Trump reiterated his commitment to introduce further tariffs on items like copper, microchips, and other essential imported consumer products that are vital to the US economy. As these tariffs are likely to increase consumer prices in the upcoming months and there is no obvious alternative for the market to source foreign goods without incurring heavy import taxes, inflationary pressures are expected to rise soon and persist for a longer duration than desired. According to Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, the ambiguity surrounding the Trump administration’s trade policies is likely to maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period, surpassing previous expectations.Read more: Trump announces reciprocal tariffsEuropean economic indicators will likely remain moderately unimportant for the rest of the trading week. Meanwhile, new US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) labor figures are expected this Friday. This NFP report could significantly influence the markets as the US economy transitions into a post-tariff phase, with the March labor statistics serving as a key indicator of the effects of the Trump administration’s tariff strategies. EUR/USD price forecast EUR/USD continues to trade in the middle of a technical trap, with buyers unable to take a firm leg higher, but short pressure too limited to push Fiber price action back under the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) just south of the 1.0700 handle. EUR/USD snapped a near-term losing streak, pushing technical oscillators into oversold territory, but a continuation pattern remains unlikely as market participants focus on geopolitical factors. EUR/USD daily chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

02:14 USD/CAD attracts some buyers above 1.4250 as Trump unveils tariff plans
The USD/CAD pair attracts some buyers to near 1.4275, snapping the two-day losing streak during the late American session on Thursday.

01:59 GBP/USD rises to test new highs, absorbs Trump tariffs in stride
GBP/USD stepped into fresh bids at six-month highs on Wednesday after the Trump administration unveiled tariffs that overall came in better than many investors had feared based on President Donald Trump’s cavalcade of tariff threats since taking up residence in the White House 72 days ago.

01:54 Canada PM Carney: We will impose counter measures on the United States
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Wednesday that the country will fight US President Donald Trump's tariffs with countermeasures, per Reuters.

01:03 Australia Judo Bank Composite PMI up to 51.6 in March from previous 51.3
Australia Judo Bank Composite PMI up to 51.6 in March from previous 51.3

01:02 Australia Judo Bank Services PMI came in at 51.6, above forecasts (51.2) in March
Australia Judo Bank Services PMI came in at 51.6, above forecasts (51.2) in March

00:01 AUD/USD below 0.6300 after Trump's announcements
On Wednesday's American session, the Australian Dollar pulled back after a brief spike to multi-day highs, with the AUD/USD pair slipping back under the 0.6300 threshold.

00:00 South Korea FX Reserves climbed from previous 409.21B to 409.66B in March
South Korea FX Reserves climbed from previous 409.21B to 409.66B in March

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Forex News Timeline

13:48 AUD/USD jumps to near 0.6350 as US Dollar plummets after Trump’s tariff plan The AUD/USD pair moves higher and advances toward the two-week high of 0.6350 in Thursday’s European session.

13:47 USD/JPY: Safe-haven flows push the pair downwards – OCBC USD/JPY fell as demand for safe-haven overwhelms even as Japan is slapped with 24% reciprocal tariff rate.

13:18 DXY: ISM services, payrolls next – OCBC Varied reaction in FX markets with open trade, growth-sensitive FX such as CNH, KRW, SGD, MYR and THB under some pressure post-tariff announcement. DXY was last seen at 102 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

13:13 Oil: Tariffs weigh on oil – ING Oil prices are under pressure this morning, following other risk assets lower, after the Trump administration unveiled a base tariff of 10% on all imports from all trading partners.

13:03 EUR/USD rallies as Trump’s reciprocal tariffs hit US Dollar hard EUR/USD soars above the psychological figure of 1.1000 in Thursday’s European session. The major currency pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) takes the bullet for long-term transition in the United States (US) economy.

12:53 Gold: Tariff relief for the metal industry – ING Gold hit a record high following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

12:49 Asian trading nations are being hit hard – ING A pair like CNH/JPY best characterises the mood in FX markets, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

12:34 USD: Blowback to US growth prospects dominates – ING The trade-weighted DXY has broken to a new low for the year as investors continue to fear what these new reciprocal tariffs mean for US confidence and activity, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

12:31 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

12:03 Spain 3-y Bond Auction: 2.292% vs previous 2.487% Spain 3-y Bond Auction: 2.292% vs previous 2.487%

12:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.2%, above forecasts (0.1%) in February Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.2%, above forecasts (0.1%) in February

12:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 1.8% to 3% in February Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 1.8% to 3% in February

12:00 France 10-y Bond Auction dipped from previous 3.51% to 3.37% France 10-y Bond Auction dipped from previous 3.51% to 3.37%

11:47 EUR/USD: Bias for EUR is on the upside – UOB Group Outlook is unclear; Euro (EUR) could continue to trade in a choppy manner vs US Dollar (USD), probably between 1.0810 and 1.0955.

11:45 EUR/USD: Bulls to gain further traction above 1.10 – OCBC Euro (EUR) jumped post-tariff announcement. Reciprocal tariff rate of 20% on EU was largely in line with street’s estimates. EUR was last seen at 1.0964 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

11:31 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI below expectations (52) in March: Actual (51.5) United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI below expectations (52) in March: Actual (51.5)

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI below forecasts (53.2) in March: Actual (52.5) United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI below forecasts (53.2) in March: Actual (52.5)

11:13 India Gold price today: Gold corrects in the aftermath of Trump's tariffs reveal Gold price in India retreats from record highs on Thursday, following a similar price acton in Comex Gold.

11:07 Pound Sterling rallies against US Dollar as Trump tariffs stoke recession fears The Pound Sterling (GBP) surges above 1.3100 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading hours on Thursday, the highest level seen in almost six months.

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 51, above expectations (50.4) in March Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 51, above expectations (50.4) in March

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI above expectations (50.4) in March: Actual (50.9) Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI above expectations (50.4) in March: Actual (50.9)

10:56 Forex Today: US Dollar under heavy pressure as trade war deepens Here is what you need to know on Thursday, April 3:

10:56 Palladium price today: Rare metals mixed at the start of the European session Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

10:55 Germany HCOB Services PMI came in at 50.9, above expectations (50.2) in March Germany HCOB Services PMI came in at 50.9, above expectations (50.2) in March

10:55 Crude oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Thursday, early in the European session.

10:55 Germany HCOB Composite PMI came in at 51.3, above expectations (50.9) in March Germany HCOB Composite PMI came in at 51.3, above expectations (50.9) in March

10:50 France HCOB Composite PMI came in at 48, above forecasts (47) in March France HCOB Composite PMI came in at 48, above forecasts (47) in March

10:50 France HCOB Services PMI above forecasts (46.6) in March: Actual (47.9) France HCOB Services PMI above forecasts (46.6) in March: Actual (47.9)

10:45 Italy HCOB Services PMI below expectations (52.5) in March: Actual (52) Italy HCOB Services PMI below expectations (52.5) in March: Actual (52)

10:40 ECB’s de Guindos: This uncertainty means we need to be extremely European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Thursday, “in terms of monetary policy, this uncertainty means we need to be extremely prudent when determining the appropriate stance.”

10:35 ECB’s Stournaras: US tariffs not an obstacle to April rate cut European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Yannis Stournaras said on Thursday, “US tariffs not an obstacle to April rate cut.”

10:15 Spain HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (55.5) in March: Actual (54.7) Spain HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (55.5) in March: Actual (54.7)

10:01 Turkey Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (38.9%) in March: Actual (38.1%) Turkey Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (38.9%) in March: Actual (38.1%)

10:00 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $33.00, further consolidation cannot be ruled out The Silver price (XAG/USD) falls to near $33.15 during the early European session on Thursday, pressured by some profit-taking.

10:00 Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (3%) in March: Actual (2.46%) Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (3%) in March: Actual (2.46%)

09:52 ECB’s Nagel: Will have to reassess the situation European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said on Thursday that “the ECB will have to reassess the situation.”

09:51 EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates edge higher at the start of the European session Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade on the front foot at the beginning of Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

09:30 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0%) in March Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0%) in March

09:30 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 0.3% below forecasts (0.5%) in March Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 0.3% below forecasts (0.5%) in March

09:00 Russia S&P Global Services PMI down to 50.1 in March from previous 50.5 Russia S&P Global Services PMI down to 50.1 in March from previous 50.5

08:48 EUR/USD gathers strength to near 1.0950 after Trump tariff announcement The EUR/USD pair climbs to around 1.0950 during the early Asian session on Thursday.

08:07 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Sticks to strong gains near multi-month top, above mid-1.3000s The GBP/USD pair gains strong follow-through positive traction for the second successive day on Thursday and advances to its highest level since October 2024 during the Asian session.

07:26 Gold price buying remains unabated; fresh record highs being set amid risk-off mood Gold price (XAU/USD) shot to a fresh record high during the Asian session on Thursday as investors rushed to take refuge in traditional safe-haven assets amid the risk-off impulse.

06:37 EC President von der Leyen: US tariffs are a major blow to the world economy European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen responded to US President Donald Trump’s ‘reciprocal tariffs’ on Thursday, noting that “US tariffs are a major blow to the world economy.”

06:29 USD/INR jumps as Trump imposes a 26% tariff directed at India The Indian Rupee (INR) remains under selling pressure on Thursday, pressured by the weakening in Asian equity and currency markets after US President Donald Trump imposed broad-based tariffs.

05:26 Japanese Yen spikes to multi-week high against USD after Trump’s tariffs announcement The Japanese Yen (JPY) jumped to a three-week top against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday after US President Donald Trump imposed sweeping trade tariffs.

05:00 AUD/USD remains weak below 0.6300 despite upbeat Chinese PMI data The AUD/USD pair remains under selling pressure around 0.6280 during the early Asian session on Thursday.

04:46 China’s Caixin Services PMI rises to 51.9 in March vs. 51.6 expected China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 51.9 in March from 51.4 in February, the latest data published by Caixin showed Thursday.

04:45 China Caixin Services PMI came in at 51.9, above expectations (51.6) in March China Caixin Services PMI came in at 51.9, above expectations (51.6) in March

04:29 US Treasury Sec. Bessent warns other countries not to retaliate against US tariffs US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent late Wednesday warned trading partners that any retaliation to the barrage of new tariffs from the White House would only result in further escalation.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1889 vs. 7.1793 previous The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.1889 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1793 and 7.2532 Reuters estimate.

03:36 Australia Trade Balance (MoM) below forecasts (5600M) in February: Actual (2968M) Australia Trade Balance (MoM) below forecasts (5600M) in February: Actual (2968M)

03:36 Australia Imports (MoM) up to 1.6% in February from previous -0.3% Australia Imports (MoM) up to 1.6% in February from previous -0.3%

03:36 Australia Exports (MoM) declined to -3.6% in February from previous 1.3% Australia Exports (MoM) declined to -3.6% in February from previous 1.3%

03:31 Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI above forecasts (49.5) in March: Actual (50) Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI above forecasts (49.5) in March: Actual (50)

03:13 NZD/USD remains under selling pressure below 0.5750 on new Trump tariffs The NZD/USD pair faces some selling pressure to near 0.5730 during the early Asian session on Thursday.

03:05 New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price dipped from previous 3% to -0.4% in March New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price dipped from previous 3% to -0.4% in March

03:01 Ireland Purchasing Manager Index Services: 55.3 (March) vs 53.2 Ireland Purchasing Manager Index Services: 55.3 (March) vs 53.2

02:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks increased to ¥-450.4B in March 28 from previous ¥-1206B Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks increased to ¥-450.4B in March 28 from previous ¥-1206B

02:14 USD/CAD attracts some buyers above 1.4250 as Trump unveils tariff plans The USD/CAD pair attracts some buyers to near 1.4275, snapping the two-day losing streak during the late American session on Thursday.

01:54 Canada PM Carney: We will impose counter measures on the United States Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Wednesday that the country will fight US President Donald Trump's tariffs with countermeasures, per Reuters.

01:03 Australia Judo Bank Composite PMI up to 51.6 in March from previous 51.3 Australia Judo Bank Composite PMI up to 51.6 in March from previous 51.3

01:02 Australia Judo Bank Services PMI came in at 51.6, above forecasts (51.2) in March Australia Judo Bank Services PMI came in at 51.6, above forecasts (51.2) in March

00:01 AUD/USD below 0.6300 after Trump's announcements On Wednesday's American session, the Australian Dollar pulled back after a brief spike to multi-day highs, with the AUD/USD pair slipping back under the 0.6300 threshold.

00:00 South Korea FX Reserves climbed from previous 409.21B to 409.66B in March South Korea FX Reserves climbed from previous 409.21B to 409.66B in March

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