Forex News Timeline

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe crossed he wires and said that direct fiscal spending under the government's stimulus package to combat the coronavirus pandemic will total 39 trillion yen ($357 billion), Jiji news agency reported on Tuesday, according to Reuters News. Key notes Abe pledged on Monday to roll out an unprecedented economic stimulus package worth 108 trillion yen - equal to 20% of economic output - as his government vowed to take "all steps" to battle deepening fallout from the coronavirus. The package, to be confirmed by the cabinet on Tuesday, will total 108 trillion yen ($989 billion), far exceeding one compiled in the wake of the 2009 financial crisis totalling 56 trillion yen in size, with fiscal spending of 15 trillion yen. "We decided to carry out an unprecedentedly massive scale of economic package worth 108 trillion yen, or 20% of GDP, following the immense damage to the economy from the novel coronavirus," Abe told reporters after a meeting with senior ruling party lawmakers. Abe stopped short of providing further details, but the amount may include earlier economic measures valued at 26 trillion yen, which were adopted at the end of last year to cope with risks from the Sino-U.S. trade war. Still, the package turned out far bigger than the amount anticipated by market players, giving a sense of security for people facing income declines and staying indoors, some analysts say. This news follows the announcement that a state of emergency as early as Tuesday would be declared. The cases of COVID-19 have been ramping up to alarming levels. the yen has come under pressure are markets considering, again, the Japanese dire economic outlook and wat an outbreak would mean for the nation's fragile economy.   

Gold registers a five-day winning streak.An ascending trend line from mid-March questions further upside.21-day SMA will validate the rising wedge bearish technical formation.Gold prices remain on the front foot while taking the bids near $1,668, up 0.70%, amid the Asian session on Tuesday. In doing so, the bullion refreshes the four-week high with an intraday peak of $1,674.15 while also marking a fifth consecutive daily gain. While the yellow metal’s sustained trading beyond March 26 top suggests its further upside, an ascending trend line since March 13, 2020, seems to be the immediate resistance to watch. Should the safe-haven manage to cross $1,685, the previous month high surrounding $1,703 will be on the buyers’ target list during the further advances. On the downside, the metal’s declines below March 26 high around $1,645 can drag the quote to a short-term rising support line around $1,624. However, a downside break of $1,624 will confirm the bearish technical pattern that will get validation from the 21-day SMA level of $1,586. Gold daily chart Trend: Bullish  

Reuters reports that US President Donald Trump said on Monday that a second round of direct payments from the federal government to Americans was under serious consideration to help limit the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. Asked if he would consider a second round of direct payments, Trump told a news conference: "We could very well do a second round of direct (payments)." He then added: "It is absolutely under serious consideration.  

NZD/USD fails to extend the latest recovery gains.US President Trump cites pandemic fears, asks help from China.New Zealand’s Q1 NZIER Business Confidence slumps to -70% versus -21% prior.Aussie data, RBA and coronavirus updates will offer fresh impulse.NZD/USD refrains from extending the previous day’s recovery gains while stepping back to 0.5930 during Tuesday’s Asian session. The kiwi pair earlier benefited from the pause in coronavirus (COVID-19) carnage in the global hot-spot. Though, the recent declines in New Zealand data and comments from US President Donald Trump seemed to have checked the market’s risk-on sentiment. New Zealand Institute of Economic Research’s (NZIER) Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion suggested a slump to -70% figure versus prior -21% during the first quarter (Q1) of 2020. However, the survey date preceded the announcement by the Government of the Alert Level 4 lockdown across the country and hence offered a little help for any major trade decision. US President Donald Trump, during his Coronavirus Task Force Briefings, cited fears of worsening situations in the US, mainly due to the virus outbreak, while also asked China for help. The US leader also disliked Indian decision on the exports of Hydroxychloroquine and suggested retaliation. With the recent challenges to the risk, US stock futures fail to follow Wall Street gains while stepping back to near 0.30% loss by the press time. The pair’s earlier recovery moves could be attributed to the early positive signs from Italy and Spain, coupled with upbeat comments from the New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. Given the release of domestic data, the kiwi traders may now follow Aussie trade numbers and RBA meeting updates for fresh impulse. Although the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to wait for fresh clues before extending its monetary policy combat with the virus, comments from the policy statement will be watched closely. Technical analysis NZD/USD remains capped by 21-day SMA, currently near 0.5945, a break of which could challenge 0.6000 round-figure ahead of targeting March 27 high surrounding 0.6070.  

WTI is on the back foot following a delay to the highly anticipated OPEC+ meeting. Markets are otherwise enjoying some recovery amid signs of a slow down in COVID-19 contagion. The price of oil has been under some pressure in recent trade considering the delays to the OPEC meeting which had been scheduled for Monday but put back until Thursday. At the time of writing, WTI is trading a $26.69bbls between $26.29bbls and $26.75bbls, below the 3rd April highs of $29.11bbls. COVID-19 Updates: A crucial week ahead for the debacleIf it were not for the delay, we would likely see oil, depending on the outcome of the meeting, marrying up with some of the recoveries we have started to see across the board.  Risk markets were enjoying some recovery, but markets were potentially too optimistic for the group to reach a negotiated agreement. "Prices are still holding relatively firm as optimism is high," analysts at TD Securities noted, "that an eventual deal will be struck, with many referencing the 10m bpd figure. In our view, a double-digit cut is only plausible should the United States participate in the cuts, which at this point, seems to have a high hurdle for success as President Trump's communications suggest the country is not ready to commit to such an agreement." With negotiations ongoing, two-way risks remain particularly high. Nonetheless, the longer it takes to come to an agreement the more inventories swell and the more detrimental the demand shock will prove to be, which suggests even a large cut will not be enough to offset the shock, at least in the near term.   Still time for further disputes and delays However, there has been a loss of 8% amid rising tensions between the world’s biggest oil producers and any further delays to forge a truce and stabilize badly beaten-down energy prices could be very impactful.  Over the weekend, Saudi Arabia and Russia became locked in a dispute, both blaming each other for the collapse in global energy prices, so this could still have some miles to go yet.  WTI levels  

AUD/JPY seesaws in a 20-pip range.A daily close beyond 21-day SMA, bullish MACD favor buyers.Sellers will seek entries below Thursday’s low.Despite trading in a range between 66.35 and 66.55 since Monday’s US session, currently around 66.30, AUD/JPY remains mildly on the back foot, down 0.10%, amid the early Tuesday morning in Asia. While the pair’s first daily closing beyond 21-day SMA since early-February, coupled with the bullish MACD, keep buyers hopeful, a downward sloping trend line from March 10 seems to be an immediate challenge. On the break of 66.70 resistance line, 67.00 and March 25 high near 67.70 will be on the bull’s radar. Further, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of February-March declines, near 68.90, could lure the buyers beyond 67.70. Meanwhile, a daily break below the 21-day SMA level of 65.70 might push sellers to await further downside under Thursday’s low of 64.40 to target 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 63.30. AUD/JPY daily chart Trend: Further recovery expected  

USD/JPY extends the previous recovery gains.US President Trump cited fears of a surge of virus, turns ship in hospital for New York, New Jersey.Japan’s Overall Household Spending can offer immediate direction, pandemic updates will remain as the key driver.Having benefited from the recovery in virus data from global hot-spot, while marking a three-day winning streak on Monday, USD/JPY buyers seem to catch a breath around 109.25 amid the early Asian session on Tuesday. The recent trade sentiment could be taking clues from US President Donald Trump’s comments during Coronavirus (COVID-19) Task Force Briefings as well as updates from the UK. US President Trump suggested that the next week, one and a half could see a surge in the virus while also marking the government’s fight against the pandemic. The Republican leader welcomed the New York Governor Andrew Cuomo’s request to turn ships into the hospital while also said to sign an agreement to provide masks from 3M. It should also be noted that the shift in power from the UK’s de facto PM Boris Johnson to Deputy Dominic Raab also weighed on the risk-tone. Earlier, the recovery in the pandemic numbers from Spain and Italy, coupled with upbeat comments from the New York Governor Cuomo helped the market sentiment to kick-start the week on a positive side. The US 10-year treasury yields marked nine basis points (bps) of increase to 0.69% with Wall Street benchmarks up near 7.0% each. Though, the latest readings of the US stock futures suggest mild weakness of around 0.30%. While Japan’s Overall Household Spending for February, expected and prior -3.9%, could act as immediate catalysts, the pair could keep taking clues from the virus data for fresh impulse. Technical analysis A daily closing beyond the 200-day SMA level, currently at 108.35, portrays the pair’s momentum strength.  

During his Coronavirus Task Force Briefings for Monday, US President Donald Trump cited fears of a big surge of virus in the next week or week and a half. The Republican leader also said that the US made tremendous progress on therapeutics. Key quotes Next week, week and a half will show big surge of virus. Made tremendous progress on therapeutics. Amicable agreement reached with 3M over masks, delivery of some 165 million masks in coming months. We will allow the US Navy ship in New York to become a hospital for people living with the Coronavirus. We are taking preventive measures because the large numbers of casualities are stabilizing. Businesses applied for more than $40Bln in relief loans, $30Bln in hospital aid going out this week. FX implications Given the traders’ active reaction to any coronavirus news from the US, the market’s risk-tone turned heavy after the news as S&P 500 Futures slips 0.30% by the press time.

The UK’s deputy PM, Dominic Raab, will take charge of the economy, as deputized by the PM Boris Johnson. While taking the charge, the Deputy said, as per The Sun, “The Prime Minister asked me to deputize for him, where necessary, in driving forward the Government's plans to defeat coronavirus.” Key quotes "As you'll know he's been receiving excellent care at St Thomas’s hospital.” "And we'd like to take this opportunity as a government to thank NHS staff up and down the country for all of their dedication, hard work and commitment in treating everyone who's been affected by this awful virus.” "There's an incredibly strong team spirit behind the Prime Minister, and making sure that we get all of the plans the Prime Minister’s instructed us to deliver to get them implemented as soon as possible." FX implications Although this news suggested a minor blow to the Cable, considering the temporary change in the political leader, GBP/USD showed no major reaction while taking rounds to 1.2230 amid the early Tuesday morning in Asia.

Early Tuesday morning in Asia, Bloomberg came out with the news that the US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi suggested the next stimulus to be at least $1 trillion to replenish funds for programs established in the recently agreed $2.2 trillion virus relief bill. Key quotes Congress‘s next stimulus bill to prop up the U.S. economy during the coronavirus crisis will be at least another $1 trillion, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told Democrats on a private conference call. The next stimulus package would be to replenish funds for programs established in Congress’s $2.2 trillion virus relief bill signed into law last month, according to people on the call. Pelosi said there should be additional direct payments to individuals, extended unemployment insurance, more resources for food stamps and more funds for the Payroll Protection Plan that provides loans to small businesses, lawmakers on the call said. FX implications Markets fail to provide any major reactions to the new amid the early-day trading as well as ahead of the Coronavirus Task Force Briefings by the Trump administrations.

AUD/USD remains mildly positive inside an immediate trading range.Early signals of recovery in coronavirus from the global hot-spots seem to be the key.Aussie trade numbers, ANZ Job Advertisements can offer intermediate direction ahead of RBA.The RBA is widely expected to keep monetary policy intact, virus data will remain as an important catalyst.AUD/USD stays within the two-hour-old 0.6080-6100 range, currently around 0.6090, while stepping forward for Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the pair holds onto Monday’s recovery gains, mainly due to slightly positive coronavirus (COVID-19) data from Europe, ahead of the key RBA meeting. Be it Spain’s fourth straight slowdown in the pace of new deaths or lowest daily increase in Italy’s confirmed cases in three weeks, everything has contributed to the recovery in the market’s risk-sentiment on Monday. Comments from New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, stating that deaths there were showing signs of hitting a plateau, also favored the optimism. While portraying the risk, the US 10-year Treasury yields gained nine basis points to 0.68% whereas Wall Street close signaled 7.0% rally by the benchmarks at the end of Monday’s trading session. Considering the data, TD Securities Inflation report for March suggested an increase of 0.2% MoM, better than the previous -0.1%, coupled with a 1.5% YoY rise versus 1.6% prior. Although the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting will be the key catalyst for the Aussie, February monthly trade numbers will also second-tier employment data from the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) could offer intermediate directions. Alike all other employment data, Aussie ANZ Job Advertisements could contract 2.9% versus +0.7% prior while Trade Balance earlier flashed 5,210M figures. Further, the RBA is expected to hold the present monetary policy unchanged and hence the underlying tone of policymakers in the statement will be important to watch. Technical analysis Unless successfully crossing monthly trend line resistance, currently at 0.6100, any recovery seems doubtful. On the contrary, fresh selling below the recent low near 0.5980 can’t be ruled out.  

Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped about 1,604 points, +7.6%, to close near 22,656.S&P 500 put on around 173 points, +6.9%, to end the session around 2,661. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed as well, adding around 535 points, up 7.3%, closing near 7,908. The US benchmarks were supercharged on Monday with the Dow adding around 1600 points and similar percentile gains in the S&P500 as well as the NASDAQ on hopes that the COVID-19 numbers of new cases are peaking. The weekend updates were showing a slowing in the spread of the virus and the V-shaped recovery that some economists have been forecasting were reverberating in market sentiment at the start of the week.  Consequently, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped about 1,604 points, +7.6%, to close near 22,656, while the S&P 500 put on around 173 points, +6.9%, to end the session around 2,661. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed as well, adding around 535 points, up 7.3%, closing near 7,908. The effect of the lockdown has been supported home delivery companies such as Wayfair Inc. with their stock price taking off by 40% higher on Monday following news the business had more than doubled in late March.  Declining numbers of the death toll in New York City and Europe has the world preying that we have seen the worts of it and hat the bell curve is now on a southerly trajectory. Italy on Saturday reported its lowest daily rise in COVID-19 deaths in nearly two weeks, according to a Reuters report. It also said the number of patients in intensive care fell for the first time. European data was dismal, PM Johnson in intensive care Meanwhile, there were some key data released in Europe with Germany’s construction PMI falling sharply into contractionary territory in March. Analysts at ANZ bank explained that it was falling 13.8 pts to 42 and despite the fact that construction sites have not been ordered to shut down (provided workers maintain physical distancing guidelines). "Meanwhile, German factory orders for February show manufacturing was muddling along before COVID-19 hit, falling 1.4% m/m to be up 1.5% y/y. The March release will be weak. Weak euro data more broadly: Euro area investor confidence fell to its lowest reading on record, down 25.8 pts from March to -42.9. The current situation index fell a whopping 51.7 pts to -66, while expectations lifted marginally, up 4.2 pts from March to -15.8 in April. Weak UK data: UK new car registrations fell 44.4% y/y in March, while the UK’s construction PMI dropped to 39.3 (last: 52.6, mkt: 44)." Speaking of the UK, the PM Boris Johnson was admitted to intensive care in St. Tomas's Hospital and the pound fell sharply as a result. More on that here:Breaking: Boris Johnson has been taken to intensive care – BBCDJIA levels