Forex News Timeline

Wednesday, March 29, 2023

Today's calendar includes a monetary policy meeting of the Czech National Bank (CNB). Economists at ING expect EUR/CZK to move below 23.50. CNB to con

Today's calendar includes a monetary policy meeting of the Czech National Bank (CNB). Economists at ING expect EUR/CZK to move below 23.50. CNB to confirm its readiness to intervene in the FX market should the CZK move higher “We expect the CNB to follow other European central banks with a hawkish tone today, which may favour a repricing of rate cut expectations and a higher CZK.” “Together with the Hungarian Forint, the Koruna has the highest beta against the global story and higher EUR/USD and low energy prices are playing into its hands. Moreover, we expect the CNB to confirm its readiness to intervene in the FX market should the CZK move higher. Thanks to that, the potential loss is limited and moreover, we believe the market is not ready for CNB intervention levels at the moment, which we estimate at around 24.60-24.70 EUR/CZK. Moreover, the Koruna maintains decent carry within the CEE region.”  “We believe the Koruna has the best risk/reward within the region at the moment and we expect a move below 23.50 EUR/CZK today.”  

The NZD/USD pair once again fails near a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and comes under fresh selling pressure on Wednesd

NZD/SUD faces rejection near the 200-day SMA and meets with a fresh supply on Wednesday.A goodish intraday pickup in the USD demand turns out to be a key factor exerting pressure.The Fed’s less hawkish stance, a positive risk tone caps the USD and lends support to the pair.The NZD/USD pair once again fails near a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and comes under fresh selling pressure on Wednesday. Spot prices, however, remain depressed through the first half of the European session and currently trade just below mid-0.6200s, down less than 0.15% for the day. The US Dollar (USD) gains some positive traction and snaps a two-day losing streak, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the NZD/USD pair. The USD uptick, however, lacks any obvious fundamental catalyst and remains capped amid the Federal Reserve's less hawkish stance. In fact, the US central bank last week toned down its approach to reining in inflation and signalled that a pause to interest rate hikes was on the horizon in the wake of the recent turmoil in the banking sector. Apart from this, the prevalent risk-on mood - as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets - caps gains for the safe-haven Greenback and lends some support to the risk-sensitive Kiwi. The takeover of Silicon Valley Bank by First Citizens Bank & Trust Company calmed nerves about the contagion risk. This, coupled with the lack of any bad news from the banking sector over the past two weeks, boosts investors' confidence and helped reverse the recent negative sentiment in the markets. The aforementioned fundamental backdrop supports prospects for some meaningful appreciating move for the NZD/USD pair. That said, repeated failures to make it through the very important 200-day SMA make it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before placing fresh bullish bets. Traders now look to the US economic docket, featuring Pending Home Sales data. This, along with the US bond yields and the broader risk sentiment, might influence the USD and provide some impetus to the major. Technical levels to watch  

Since the beginning of the banking crisis in the United States and in Europe, all bank shares have fallen considerably. Analysts at Natixis seek to de

Since the beginning of the banking crisis in the United States and in Europe, all bank shares have fallen considerably. Analysts at Natixis seek to determine whether or not the decline in bank share prices in the US and the Eurozone is rational. Is the decline in bank share prices rational?  “Banks in the US and the Eurozone are benefiting from higher interest rates.” “US banks, especially unregulated banks, regional banks, are incurring significant losses on bond portfolios.” “Interconnection between banks in the money market is weak.” “All things considered, the large US and European banks look solid.”  

USD/CNH should keep the side-lined trade well in place within the 6.8100-6.9200 range in the short-term horizon, comment Economist Lee Sue Ann and Mar

USD/CNH should keep the side-lined trade well in place within the 6.8100-6.9200 range in the short-term horizon, comment Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang at UOB. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our view for USD to trade with a downward bias did not materialize as it traded in a muted manner between 6.8720 and 6.8900 before closing largely unchanged at 6.8796 (-0.05%). The price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase and we expect USD to trade in a range of 6.8700/6.8950 today. Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to our update from Monday (27 Mar, spot at 6.8700). As highlighted, the recent USD weakness has stabilized. The current movement is likely the early parts of a consolidation phase and USD is likely to trade between 6.8100 and 6.9200 for now.”

Economists at ING continue to see mostly downside risks for the US Dollar. Fed’s lack of clarity counts more than the magnitude of cuts “Markets moved

Economists at ING continue to see mostly downside risks for the US Dollar. Fed’s lack of clarity counts more than the magnitude of cuts “Markets moved from pricing in a 24% chance of a hike in May and 88 bp of cuts by year-end on Friday to a 47% implied probability of a hike in May and 46 bp of cuts by year-end as of this morning. In a way, this is telling us how it’s the stance of the Fed and its unclear communication (especially given the contrast with the European counterparts) that leaves the Dollar vulnerable in a stable risk environment and not necessarily the magnitude of expected rate cuts.” “So, is it going to be a straight-line USD depreciation from now on? We don’t think so. The room for corrections is non-negligible, and those can be triggered either by new risk-off waves outside of the US (like the one seen in Europe on Friday) or by attempts from Fed members to re-establish more hawkish rhetoric.”  

European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Wednesday, “ECB rates must rise if banking tension has no or ‘fairly limited’ impact.”

European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Wednesday, “ECB rates must rise if banking tension has no or ‘fairly limited’ impact.” Additional comments “Bank sector tensions are seen settling down; no reason to expect major problems.” “Some early stage pricing in production showing signs of a turnaround.”

The GBP/USD pair comes under some selling pressure on Wednesday, snapping a two-day winning streak and eroding a part of the overnight gains to its hi

GBP/USD retreats from a multi-week high amid a goodish pickup in the USD demand.The Fed’s less hawkish outlook, the risk-on mood should cap the USD and lend support.Rising bets for more BoE rate hikes favour the GBP bulls and help limit the downside.The GBP/USD pair comes under some selling pressure on Wednesday, snapping a two-day winning streak and eroding a part of the overnight gains to its highest level since early February. The pair drops to a fresh daily low during the first half of the European session, albeit finds some support near the 1.2300 mark and recovers a few pips in the last hour.  Following a two-day downtrend, the US Dollar (USD) regains positive traction and turns out to be a key factor that exerts some downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair. The takeover of Silicon Valley Bank by First Citizens Bank & Trust Company calmed market nerves about the contagion risk and eased fears of a full-blown banking crisis. This, in turn, led to a strong recovery in the US Treasury bond yields since the beginning of the current week, which, in turn, helps revive the USD demand. That said, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) less hawkish stance, signalling that a pause to interest rate hikes was on the horizon, acts as a headwind for the US bond yields. Apart from this, the prevalent risk-on mood - as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets - might hold back traders from placing aggressive bets around the safe-haven buck. This, along with rising bets for additional rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE), could lend some support to the GBP/USD pair. In fact, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said earlier this week that interest rates may have to move higher if there were signs of persistent inflationary pressure. The bets were lifted further after the British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported that UK shop prices increased from 8.4% previously to 8.9% in the year to March - the highest reading on record since the survey started in 2005. Furthermore, food prices increased 15.0% over the year, also a record high, and could benefit the British Pound. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the GB/USD pair is to the upside and any subsequent pullback might still be seen as a buying opportunity. There isn't any relevant macro data due for release on Wednesday from the UK, while the US economic docket features Pending Home Sales later during the early North American session. This, along with the US bond yields and the broader risk sentiment, might influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus. Technical levels to watch  

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is making some comments on the country’s wage outlook this Wednesday. Key quotes “Aiming to narrow wage gaps bet

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is making some comments on the country’s wage outlook this Wednesday. Key quotes “Aiming to narrow wage gaps between Japan and overseas.” “Wage hikes will be one of the three pillars of new capitalism.“ “Aiming to draw up guidelines for steps including wage hikes, reskilling workers by June.” Market reaction USD/JPY is a little impressed by the above comments, keeping its range at around 132.00, up 0.84% on the day.

In a statement on Wednesday, UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said that “I want to be the chancellor who simplifies taxes.” Additional takeaways “It is

In a statement on Wednesday, UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said that “I want to be the chancellor who simplifies taxes.” Additional takeaways “It is obvious that you cannot finance tax cuts by raising borrowing.” “We are gaining stability and beginning to pay down debt.”

In the view of Antje Praefcke, FX Analyst at Commerzbank, the Riksbank must continue its fight against inflation with determination. If not, Krona cou

In the view of Antje Praefcke, FX Analyst at Commerzbank, the Riksbank must continue its fight against inflation with determination. If not, Krona could come under significant pressure. Riksbank will have to deliver more “Even though inflation expectations haven't risen, confidence in the Riksbank’s determination to get inflation under control has to remain intact. That is why it is unavoidable in my view that the Riksbank continues to hike its key rate and for it to possibly implement a 50 bps rate step in April.” “If doubts about the Riksbank’s determination arise on the market that would constitute a negative sign for the Krona – even though the Riksbank underlines that a weak krona can also lead to further rate hikes. Concerns about an insufficiently decisive Riksbank would put the SEK under considerable downward pressure.”  

The weekly upside bias in EUR/USD appears to have met a tough barrier around the 1.0850 region for the time being. EUR/USD looks offered as dollar reb

EUR/USD’s upside momentum falters near 1.0850.The greenback trims part of the recent weakness amidst mixed yields.Consumer Confidence in Germany improved a tad in April.The weekly upside bias in EUR/USD appears to have met a tough barrier around the 1.0850 region for the time being. EUR/USD looks offered as dollar rebounds EUR/USD loses some momentum following an auspicious first half of the week and comes under some selling pressure on the back of the bounce in the greenback and the broad-based offered stance in the risk complex. Indeed, bulls appear to struggle to overcome the mid-1.0800s, while the better tone in the dollar remains underpinned by the mixed performance in US yields and safe haven demand stemming from banking concerns. Meanwhile, ECB Board member Kazimir suggested that the core inflation could take a key role when it comes to interest rate decisions at the time when he left the door open to further rate hikes, albeit at a slower pace. In the domestic calendar, Consumer Confidence tracked by GfK in Germany improved marginally to -29.5 for the month of April (from -30.6), while the Consumer Confidence in France receded to 81 in March (from 82). Across the pond, MBA Mortgage Applications and Pending Home Sales are due later in the NA session. What to look for around EUR The weekly recovery in EUR/USD meets initial resistance near 1.0850 against the backdrop of the moderate bounce in the dollar. In the meantime, price action around the European currency should continue to closely follow dollar dynamics, as well as the potential next moves from the ECB in a context still dominated by elevated inflation, although amidst dwindling recession risks for the time being.Key events in the euro area this week: Germany GfK Consumer Confidence, France Consumer Confidence (Wednesday) – Germany  Flash Inflation Rate, EMU Consumer Confidence, Economic Sentiment (Thursday) – Germany Retail Sales/Labor Market Report, EMU Flash Inflation Rate/Unemployment Rate, France Flash Inflation Rate, Italy Flash Inflation Rate (Friday).Eminent issues on the back boiler: Continuation, or not, of the ECB hiking cycle. Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the growth prospects and inflation outlook in the region. Risks of inflation becoming entrenched. EUR/USD levels to watch So far, the pair is retreating 0.10% at 1.0832 and faces the next support at 1.0712 (low March 24) followed by 1.0637 (100-day SMA) and finally 1.0516 (monthly low March 15). On the other hand, a break above 1.0929 (monthly high March 23) would target 1.1032 (2023 high February 2) en route to 1.1100 (round level).

Precious metals are consolidating this week after seeing enormous gains since the beginning of March. Gold price (XAU/USD) is trading comfortably abov

Precious metals have stabilized after big rallies in March.Gold price needs fresh impulse from US PCE inflation, Chinese PMIs before bulls target higher levels.Silver price trend has been slower but more constant, bulls target $24.50.Precious metals are consolidating this week after seeing enormous gains since the beginning of March. Gold price (XAU/USD) is trading comfortably above $1,950 after having peaked around the thick $2,000 round resistance. Meanwhile, Silver price (XAG/USD) has seen a constant uptrend with fewer ups-and-downs and is trading above $23, still with room to cover before reaching the year-to-date highs of early January around $24.50. Gold price trading choppy as it awaits US PCE inflation, Chinese PMIs Gold trading has been choppy for most of the week as the volatility seen in the past two weeks, with banking bankruptcies and high-stakes central bank meetings getting all the attention, fades.  The market is now looking ahead to the next Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting in early May, and will spend April trying to figure out the likelihood of more interest rate hikes to combat relentless inflation before the inevitable easing of the monetary policy by the US central bank starts. The next top-tier event to start figuring that out is the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index release on Friday, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Friday should be a high-stakes trading day, featuring also the Chinese Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) releases – China is the biggest Gold market in the world – and end-of-quarter trading flows. Until then, Gold price is likely to stay rangebound, together with stable US Treasury bond yields and US Dollar Index value. Silver price on a solid uptrend The second most precious metal, Silver, is highly correlated with Gold, as usual. That said, XAG/USD has not seen as much of a retracement this week, actually making its higher daily close since early February on Wednesday, around $23.30.  Silver had seen a much more profound sell-off during the market turnaround seen in February due to the expected Fed hawkishness. Since the course of financial markets swang again after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Silver price had more room to recover but has done so with a relentless uptrend, barely noticing any retracements. XAG/USD has already rallied past the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the January 16-March 8 downtrend, and with its main Simple Moving Averages (20 and 100) in the daily chart nearing a bullish cross, it could soon find a platform for another rally back to year-to-date highs. These levels, around $24,50, are the main target and resistance for Silver bulls, as they coincide with a long-term bearish trendline that has contained price action since May 2021.  The fact that Silver price has managed to stay outside overbought territory helps the continuation of a slow but solid uptrend to these levels if fundamentals remain in favor of precious metals, with Federal Reserve interest rate expectations somewhat limited. Silver price (XAG/USD) daily chart

“We should continue in raising rates, possibly at a slower pace,” European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Peter Kazimir said on Wednesday. Further com

“We should continue in raising rates, possibly at a slower pace,” European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Peter Kazimir said on Wednesday. Also read: ECB’s Kazimir: We are ready to take any steps to secure price and financial stability in EurozoneFurther comments “We agreed we will not give guidance about the May European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting,”“I think inflation is too high for too long. “Core inflation will be key in nearest decisions.” “We will take into account the financial markets situation.” Market reaction EUR/USD is trading in a tight range at around 1.0830, down 0.05% on the day. The ECB-speak fail to move the needle around the Euro.

In its latest review, Fitch Ratings affirmed Japan’s sovereign credit rating at ‘A’ while maintaining a ‘stable’ outlook. Key takeaways Expect Japan's

In its latest review, Fitch Ratings affirmed Japan’s sovereign credit rating at ‘A’ while maintaining a ‘stable’ outlook. Key takeaways Expect Japan's general government (GG) deficit to narrow to about 5% of GDP in the fiscal year ending march 2023 (fFY22). Forecast real GDP growth for japan at 1.3% in 2023. Higher energy prices and Yen depreciation spurred inflation in Japan, we forecast to average 2.7% in 2023. Base case remains that BoJ will maintain its loose monetary policy over medium term.

United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (YoY) down to 1% in February from previous 2.7%

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Peter Kazimir said on Wednesday, “we have to closely monitor the situation,” adding that “we are ready to take

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Peter Kazimir said on Wednesday, “we have to closely monitor the situation,” adding that “we are ready to take any steps to secure price and financial stability in the Eurozone.” Additional quotes “We see a decline in markets appetite to provide regulatory capital to banks.” “In Slovakia, banks are in very good condition.” Market reaction At the time of writing, EUR/USD remains pressured near 1.0830, as the US Dollar finds it feet ahead of the US Pending Home Sales data.

United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals (MoM): £2.2B (February) vs previous £4.1B

United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (MoM) came in at -0.4% below forecasts (0.1%) in February

United Kingdom Consumer Credit came in at £1.413B, above expectations (£1.3B) in February

United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals registered at 43.536K above expectations (40.5K) in February

Extra decline looks likely in USD/JPY while below the 132.00 mark, according to Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang at UOB. Ke

Extra decline looks likely in USD/JPY while below the 132.00 mark, according to Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang at UOB. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that USD ‘is likely to edge lower to 130.60, possibly testing the support at 130.20’. While USD weakened as expected, it did not test the support at 130.20 (low of 130.39). Downward momentum has waned with the rebound and USD is unlikely to weaken further. Today, USD is more likely to trade in a range, expected to be between 130.70 and 131.75.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We have expected USD to weaken since the middle of last week. After USD dropped to 129.67 and rebounded strongly, in our latest update from Monday (27 Mar, spot at 130.70), we indicated “Further USD weakness is not ruled out but USD has to break and stay below 129.60 before further decline is likely”. Since then, USD has not been able to make much headway on the downside. Downward momentum is waning rapidly and the risk of USD bottoming is increasing. However, only a break of 132.00 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ from yesterday) would indicate that USD is not declining further.”

The USD/CAD pair attracts some buying near the 1.3585 region, or over a three-week low touched this Wednesday and sticks to its modest gains through t

USD/CAD gains some positive traction amid a goodish pickup in the USD demand.The Fed’s less hawkish stance and the risk-on mood act as a headwind for the USD.Bullish Oil prices could underpin the Loonie and contribute to capping the major.The USD/CAD pair attracts some buying near the 1.3585 region, or over a three-week low touched this Wednesday and sticks to its modest gains through the early European session. The pair is currently placed just above the 1.3600 round-figure mark and for now, seems to have snapped a two-day losing streak, though lacks bullish conviction. The US Dollar regains positive traction and recovers a major part of the overnight losses, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor lending some support to the USD/CAD pair. That said, the Federal Reserve's less hawkish stance, along with the prevalent risk-on environment, might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the safe-haven USD and act as a headwind for the major, at least for the time being. It is worth recalling that the US central bank last week toned down its approach to reining in inflation and signalled that a pause to interest rate hikes was on the horizon in the wake of the recent turmoil in the banking sector. Adding to this, the takeover of Silicon Valley Bank by First Citizens Bank & Trust Company calmed market nerves about the contagion risk and helped reverse the negative sentiment in the markets. Apart from this, bullish Crude Oil prices could underpin the commodity-linked Loonie and contribute to capping any further gains for the USD/CAD pair. Against the backdrop of hopes of a strong demand recovery in China, a halt to some exports from Iraq's Kurdistan raised concerns about tightening global supplies. This, along with easing fears of a full-blown banking crisis, pushes the black liquid to over a two-week high. This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the USD/CAD pair's rejection slide from levels just above the 1.3800 mark has run its course and placing fresh bullish bets. Traders now look to the US economic docket, featuring the release of Pending Home Sales. The data might influence the USD, which, along with Oil price dynamics could provide some impetus to the major. The focus, however, will remain on the final US Q4 GDP on Thursday, followed by the monthly Canadian GDP report and the Core PCE Price Index - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - on Friday. Technical levels to watch  

Economists at ING dbelieve that the 1.10 level is within reach for the EUR/USD pair. EUR/GBP to fall below 0.8800 “1.10 should be within reach in the

Economists at ING dbelieve that the 1.10 level is within reach for the EUR/USD pair. EUR/GBP to fall below 0.8800 “1.10 should be within reach in the near term. That is a key benchmark level and could see significant resistance: a break higher would likely signal a more structural shift in market strategic views for a stronger Euro.” “In the crosses, we saw EUR/GBP fall below 0.8800, but we don’t expect the pair’s weakness to be very sustainable as we see the market pricing for Bank of England tightening as too aggressive and policy divergence should be a primary driver for a higher EUR/GBP.”  

Gold price retreats back into a familiar range between $1,950-60 in the early European Session on Wednesday. Volatility has drained from markets as ba

Gold price rally stopped dead in $1,970s, precious metal retreats back into familiar range.Traders now see less chance of a Fed pivot before the end of the year, weighing on Gold.ING Bank expects one more rate hike then cuts before year end – higher Gold prices.Gold price retreats back into a familiar range between $1,950-60 in the early European Session on Wednesday. Volatility has drained from markets as banking crisis fears dissipate and bets revive of a rate hike in May. Traders await the next big data release on Friday, in the form of the US Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (PCE).  Federal Reserve less likely to cut rates this year XAU/USD has pulled back from yesterday’s highs in the mid $1,970s as expectations of the Fed cutting rates later this year have started to fall. The Fed Fund Futures Curve is now only pricing in two instead of three 0.25% rate cuts by the end of 2023. That said, the same indicator is still showing a 57% probability the Fed will not hike rates at the next meeting in May, versus a 43% chance it will raise them by 0.25%.  Traders now await the release of the PCE price index for February for greater clarity on the state of inflation and the Fed’s probable next move. Economists’ forecasts are for the Core PCE to decline to 0.4% from 0.6% previously, MoM, and to remain unchanged at 4.7% YoY.  A higher-than-expected Core PCE will suggest inflation remains a problem and prompt the Fed to raise rates more aggressively, and vice-versa for a lower-than-expected result.  Given rates tend to move in the opposite direction to Gold, because as they rise they make remaining in cash more attractive, a higher PCE result will have a negative impact on Gold price. Bank stresses to return before the end of 2023ING Bank expects XAU/USD to pull back in the short term, in the wake of a final 0.25% rate rise from the Federal Reserve in May, before recovering in the medium term as banking stresses revive and the central bank starts cutting rates before the end of the year.  “Whilst we expect a pullback in prices in the short term, we see Gold prices moving higher over 2H23 and expect spot Gold to average $2,000 over 4Q23. The assumptions around this are that we do not see further deterioration in the banking sector and that the Fed starts cutting rates towards the end of this year,” says ING in its note.  Gold price bulls still own the trend XAU/USD may be meandering in the short term but it is still in an uptrend when looked at from a medium-term perspective. The price of the precious metal continues to make higher highs and lows on the daily chart. Thus, according to the old adage, “The trend is your friend until the bend at the end,” the technical outlook favors bulls.
Gold price: Daily Chart A break above the key $2,009 March top would be required to confirm further upside. The next target for Gold price would then lie at the $2,070 March 2022 highs.  The key $1,934 March 22 swing low must hold for Gold bulls to retain the advantage. Yet, a break and close on a daily basis below that level would introduce doubt into the overall bullish assessment of the trend. Such a move would probably see a sharp decline to support at $1,990 supplied by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). 

Italy Trade Balance non-EU up to €4.023B in February from previous €-1.359B

CME Group’s flash data for natural gas futures markets noted traders increased their open interest positions for the second session in a row on Tuesda

CME Group’s flash data for natural gas futures markets noted traders increased their open interest positions for the second session in a row on Tuesday, this time by around 1.6K contracts. in the same direction, volume added to Monday’s uptick and rose by around 56.7K contracts. Natural Gas risks another test of the 2023 low Prices of natural gas remained on the defensive in the first half of the week. Tuesday’s decline came on the back of rising open interest and volume, which suggests that further retracements remain well on the table in the very near term. Against that, the next support of note aligns at the 2023 low near $1.97 per MMBtu (February 22).

Austria Purchasing Manager Index declined to 44.7 in March from previous 47.1

Switzerland ZEW Survey – Expectations below forecasts (-18.9) in March: Actual (-41.3)

Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group still expect AUD/USD to navigate between 0.6565 and 0.6760 in the near term.

Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group still expect AUD/USD to navigate between 0.6565 and 0.6760 in the near term. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “While we expected AUD to strengthen yesterday, we were of the view that ‘it is unlikely to break 0.6695’. The anticipated AUD strength exceeded our expectations as AUD rose to a high of 0.6710. Strong upward momentum is likely to lead to further AUD strength but overbought conditions suggest it is unlikely to break the major resistance at 0.6760 (there is a minor resistance at 0.6730). Support is at 0.6685; a break of 0.6670 would indicate that AUD is not advancing further.” Next 1-3 weeks: “On Monday (27 Mar, spot at 0.6645) we highlighted, that for the time being, AUD is likely to trade between the two major levels of 0.6565 and 0.6760. We continue to hold the same view. Looking ahead, if AUD were to break and stay above 0.6760, it would suggest AUD could continue to rise in the days ahead.”

Norges Bank’s policy rate will depend a lot on the Krone’s development over the coming weeks and months. Antje Praefcke, FX Analyst at Commerzbank, ex

Norges Bank’s policy rate will depend a lot on the Krone’s development over the coming weeks and months. Antje Praefcke, FX Analyst at Commerzbank, expects NOK to gain some ground against the EUR. Norges Bank will do more in case of a weak Krone “If the Krone were to develop weaker than expected, the key rate might have to be hiked even more, according to Norges Bank. If, on the other hand, inflation falls faster or unemployment rises more than projected, the policy rate may be lower than projected.” “As Norges Bank signalled further rate hikes if NOK were to remain weak, to my mind the logical consequence is that it should not depreciate further.” “Principally I am of the view that NOK is trading at overly weak levels anyway. As a result, and in particular as there is the prospect of the rate differential to the Eurozone narrowing further, NOK should appreciate moderately against the Euro.”  

Open interest in crude oil futures markets shrank for the second session in a row on Tuesday, now by around 11.5K contracts according to preliminary r

Open interest in crude oil futures markets shrank for the second session in a row on Tuesday, now by around 11.5K contracts according to preliminary readings from CME Group. In the same line, volume went down for the second straight day, this time by nearly 69K contracts. WTI faces the next hurdle at the 55-day SMA Prices of the WTI extended the weekly leg higher on Tuesday and close above the $73.00 mark per barrel. The positive price action, however, was in tandem with declining open interest and volume and signals that the current bull run could struggle to advance further in the very near term at least. On the upside, the 55-day SMA near $76.20 should offer initial resistance.

Yesterday, the Hungarian Forint rallied noticeably after the central bank kept all policy parameters on hold. Economists at ING expect the EUR/HUF pai

Yesterday, the Hungarian Forint rallied noticeably after the central bank kept all policy parameters on hold. Economists at ING expect the EUR/HUF pair to ove below the 380 level for the rest of the week. NBH will remain cautious, patient and disciplined “The most important takeaway from this month's rate-setting meeting is that the NBH will remain cautious, patient and disciplined.” “The NBH has made it clear that priced-in rate cuts are not on the table at the moment, which should keep FX carry by far the highest in the region. This was the main reason why the Forint was one of the most popular macro trades within the EM space during January and February.” “We believe that current market conditions along with the hawkish NBH are enticing investors to return to Hungary and the HUF has further room to rally. As such, we expect the Forint to settle below 380 EUR/HUF for the rest of the week.”  

The AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's positive move and comes under some renewed selling pressure on Wednesday. The steady in

A combination of factors prompts fresh selling around AUD/USD on Wednesday.The softer Australian CPI reaffirms bets that the RBA will pause its rate-hike cycle.A goodish pickup in the USD demand further contributes to the intraday downfall.The AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's positive move and comes under some renewed selling pressure on Wednesday. The steady intraday descent extends through the early European session and drags spot prices to a fresh daily low, around the 0.6675-0.6670 region in the last hour. The Australian Dollar weakens in reaction to the softer-than-expected domestic consumer inflation figures for February, which reaffirms bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will refrain from raising interest rates at its April meeting. In fact, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the headline CPI decelerated from the previous month’s reading of 7.4% to the 6.8% yearly rate, or an eight-month low in February. Apart from this, the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) buying is seen exerting downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair. The recent rally in the US Treasury bond yields, bolstered by easing fears of a full-blown banking crisis, assists the USD to snap a two-day losing streak. That said, the Federal Reserve's less hawkish stance, along with the prevalent risk-off environment, could cap gains for the safe-haven buck and lend support to the AUD/USD pair. It is worth recalling that the Fed last week signalled that a pause to interest rate hikes was on the horizon. Furthermore, the takeover of Silicon Valley Bank by First Citizens Bank & Trust Company helped calm market nerves about the contagion risk. The aforementioned mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before placing aggressive bearish bets around the AUD/USD pair and positioning for any further depreciating move. Traders now look to the US economic docket, featuring the release of Pending Home Sales. This, along with the US bond yields and the broader risk sentiment, might influence the USD and provide some impetus to the AUD/USD pair. The focus, however, will remain on the final US Q4 GDP on Thursday and the Core PCE Price Index - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - on Friday. Technical levels to watch  

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, March 29: Risk flows continue to drive the action in financial markets mid-week with US stock index future

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, March 29: Risk flows continue to drive the action in financial markets mid-week with US stock index futures trading decisively higher in the European morning. Following a two-day slide, the US Dollar Index clings to modest recovery gains and the 10-year US T-bond yield continues to fluctuate above 3.5%. The US economic docket will feature Pending Home Sales in the American session. Wall Street's main indexes traded mixed on Tuesday as the sharp decline seen in the technology stocks offset the upbeat performance of energy stocks. In the absence of high-impact macroeconomic data releases, market participants are likely to continue to pay close attention to risk perception. Earlier in the day, major equity indices in Asian rose sharply on news that e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holdings was planning to split its business into six units and have them list publicly. At the time of press, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was on track to end the day with a gain of nearly 2%.   On a negative note, China's Taiwan Affairs Office threatened retaliation over Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen's visit to the US on Wednesday. This headline, however, doesn't seem to be having an impact on risk sentiment. During the Asian trading hours, the data from Australia revealed that the Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined to 6.8% on a yearly basis in February from 7.4% in January. This reading came in below the market expectation of 7.1% and revived expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to pause its tightening cycle at next week's policy meeting. In turn, AUD/USD turned south and was last seen losing 0.5% on the day at 0.6675.EUR/USD stages a technical correction early Wednesday but holds comfortably above 1.0800. The Gfk Consumer Confidence Index in Germany declined to -29.5 for April from -30.6 but this reading failed to trigger a noticeable market reaction.GBP/USD registered strong gains for the second straight day on Tuesday before going into a consolidation phase slightly above 1.2300 on Wednesday. The Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee will release its quarterly report later in the session.USD/JPY gathered bullish momentum and advanced toward 132.00 early Wednesday. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Wednesday, that Japan is "closer than before to sustainably hit the 2% inflation target." Following Tuesday's rebound, Gold price lost its traction and declined to the $1,960 area on Wednesday. Easing fears over a global financial crisis and recovering yields make it difficult for XAU/USD to keep its footing.Bitcoin regained its traction early Wednesday and was last seen rising nearly 3% slightly above $28,000. Ethereum rose more than 3% on Tuesday and continued to push higher on Wednesday. ETH/USD was last seen gaining 2% on the day at $1,810.

In the view of Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group, GBP/USD could see its gains accelerated on a close above 1.24

In the view of Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group, GBP/USD could see its gains accelerated on a close above 1.2400. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our view for GBP yesterday was that it ‘is likely to test the major resistance at 1.2340 but it is unlikely to maintain a foothold above this level’. Our view was not wrong even though GBP strengthened more than expected, rising to 1.2348 before settling on a firm note at 1.2341 (+0.44%). Despite the advance, there is no significant improvement in upward momentum. However, there is room for GBP to rise to 1.2370 before the risk of a pullback increases. The next resistance at 1.2400 is unlikely to come into view. On the downside, a breach of 1.2290 (minor support is at 1.2310) would indicate that GBP is not advancing further.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Two days ago (27 Mar, spot at 1.2240), we held the view that the recent GBP strength has ended and we expected GBP to trade in a range of 1.2140/1.2340. Yesterday, GBP rose slightly above the top of the expected range (high of 1.2348). Upward momentum appears to be building, albeit tentatively. In order for GBP to advance in a sustained manner, it has to break and stay above 1.2400. The likelihood of a clear break of 1.2400 is not high for now but it will remain intact as long as GBP stays above 1.2240 in the next few days. Looking ahead, the next resistance above 1.2400 is a solid level at 1.2450.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs have changed their call on the Pound Sterling from bearish to bullish, now targeting EUR/GBP at 0.8800 and GBP/USD at 1.1900

Analysts at Goldman Sachs have changed their call on the Pound Sterling from bearish to bullish, now targeting EUR/GBP at 0.8800 and GBP/USD at 1.1900 in the next six months. Key quotes "We no longer look for idiosyncratic GBP weakness, as investor sentiment on the fiscal side has improved meaningfully, and are updating both our 6- and 12-month EUR/GBP forecasts to 0.88 (from 0.89 and 0.90 previously) but keep our 3-month forecast unchanged at 0.89 because BoE dovishness could continue for a bit longer.” "We would consider turning even more positive on GBP if we became confident in a revised approach from the BoE." 

The Czech National Bank (CNB) is expected to leave rates unchanged in its meeting today. Willingness to hike rates in the future should support Koruna

The Czech National Bank (CNB) is expected to leave rates unchanged in its meeting today. Willingness to hike rates in the future should support Koruna in the coming month, economists at Commerzbank report.   CNB on hold “We do not expect the bank’s board to use any dovish arguments whatsoever today; rather, we expect it to reiterate that rates need to be kept high for some time longer.” “Hawks will repeat their argument for one more rate hike – while, an actual rate hike is unlikely in this cycle, the sum total of such signals will convey the message that this central bank stands ready and willing to change its (pause) stance and return to hiking rates if the exchange rate were to need defending. And, this message should support the Koruna through the coming month.”  

Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell short of market expectations with headline inflation falling from 7.4% year-on-year in January to 6.8% in F

Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI)  fell short of market expectations with headline inflation falling from 7.4% year-on-year in January to 6.8% in February. This will further support a hike at next month's RBA meeting, economists at ANZ Bank report. RBA to hike in April; Inflation momentum remains strong “Annual inflation fell to 6.8% YoY in February, down from the peak 8.4% YoY in December, providing further confirmation that we passed peak inflation in Q4.” “Australia’s monthly CPI indicator showed inflation momentum remains strong and is not slowing as much as the fall in annual inflation would suggest. Along with previous data releases, this makes us comfortable with our call that the RBA will raise the cash rate 25 bps at its April meeting.” “While the RBA has signalled its intention to pause at some point in coming months, we continue to think that the data is not yet consistent with a pause.”  

Sweden Consumer Confidence (MoM) below forecasts (70) in March: Actual (62.8)

Gold price (XAU/USD) renews its intraday low around $1,960 as it reverses the previous day’s corrective bounce amid early Wednesday in Europe. The pre

Gold price takes offers to reverse the previous day’s corrective bounce off one-week low.Geopolitical challenges to sentiment, mixed US data joins month-end positioning to recall US Dollar buyers.XAU/USD’s U-turn from previous support, failure to cross SMA confluence keeps bears hopeful.Headlines surrounding inflation, banking become necessary for fresh impetus on Gold price.Gold price (XAU/USD) renews its intraday low around $1,960 as it reverses the previous day’s corrective bounce amid early Wednesday in Europe. The precious metal’s latest losses could be linked to the US Dollar’s rebound amid fresh challenges to the risk appetite emanating from China. However, a sluggish trading session and a light calendar prod the Gold bears of late. The US blacklisting of Chinese companies and Beijing’s dislike of a meeting between the White House Speak and the Taiwan President can be considered the key catalysts to challenge the previously firmer sentiment and allow the US Dollar to snap a two-day downtrend. Adding strength to the greenback are the two-week high US inflation expectations, per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED). On the contrary, a successful divergence of the markets from the banking fallouts, policymakers’ efforts to defend their respective banking system and the central banks’ confirmations that the financial crisis is off the table seems to keep the traders optimistic. It’s worth observing, however, that the inflation woes highlight the upcoming price pressure data from Europe and the US as this week’s key catalysts for the XAU/USD. While portraying the mood, the S&P 500 Futures rise half a percent to 4,010 as it prints the first daily gains in three whereas the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields print a three-day uptrend around 3.58% and 4.10% respectively. To sum up, a light calendar on Wednesday may allow the Gold price to justify the downbeat technical signals and please sellers. Though, headlines about inflation and banking will be crucial to watch for clear directions. Technical analysis Gold price extends the previous day’s U-turn from a two-week-long support-turned-resistance, around $1,981 by the press time, to slip beneath a convergence of the 21-SMA and 50-SMA. Not only the failure to cross the key hurdles but the previous reversals from $2,005 and steady RSI (14) also keep Gold bears hopeful. That said, the recent low of around $1,945 can act as immediate support for the XAU/USD bears to prod before jostling with the key horizontal line surrounding $1,930. Alternatively, the aforementioned SMA confluence of around $1,970 guards the Gold price recovery ahead of the previous support line close to $1,981. It’s worth noting that the Gold buyers should remain cautious unless the quote stays beneath a two-week-old horizontal hurdle of near $2,005. Overall, the Gold price remains well-set for further downside but there prevails a limited room towards the south. Gold price: Four-hour chart Trend: Limited downside expected  

France Consumer Confidence in line with expectations (81) in March

Economists at ABN Amro have adjusted their forecasts in EUR/USD following changes in the Fed view and ECB view. Year-end 2024 forecast kept at at 1.16

Economists at ABN Amro have adjusted their forecasts in EUR/USD following changes in the Fed view and ECB view. Year-end 2024 forecast kept at at 1.16 “As we pushed out most of the Fed rate cuts to 2024, we think there is less upside in EUR/USD in the near-term. Therefore, we lower our EUR/USD forecast for the end of 2023 to 1.10 from 1.12.” “We keep year-end 2024 forecast of EUR/USD at 1.16 though, because of the larger amount of rate cuts we expect for the Fed compared to the ECB in 2024.”  

EUR/USD drops to 1.0830 as it welcomes intraday sellers during the initial hour of Wednesday’s European session. In doing so, the Euro pair prints the

EUR/USD takes offers to refresh intraday low, prints the first daily loss in three.Euro pair’s decline below 61.8% Fibonacci retracement joins looming bear cross on MACD to tease sellers.21-SMA joins two-month-old horizontal support, ascending trend line from mid-March to highlight 1.0800 level as the key for bears.Buyers have a bumpy road to tackle before crossing 1.0940.EUR/USD drops to 1.0830 as it welcomes intraday sellers during the initial hour of Wednesday’s European session. In doing so, the Euro pair prints the first daily loss in three. The major currency pair’s latest weakness drags it back below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of its February-March downside, following a brief run-up, which in turn teases sellers. Adding strength to the downside bias is the looming bear cross on the MACD indicator. It should be noted, however, that a convergence of the 21-SMA, horizontal line from late January and a two-week-old ascending trend line together highlight the 1.0800 as a tough nut to crack for the EUR/USD bears. In a case where the Euro pair drops below 1.0800, the mid-month top around 1.0760 and the last Friday’s high near 1.0715 could lure the bears. Alternatively, a clear upside break of the recent top surrounding 1.0850 becomes necessary for the EUR/USD buyers to return to the table. However, a seven-week-long broad resistance area between 1.0930 and 1.0940 can challenge the Euro pair’s further advances, a break of which could quickly propel the pair toward the Year-To-Date (YTD) high marked in January around 1.1033. EUR/USD: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected  

FX option expiries for Mar 29 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0685 1.0b 1.0700 2.5b 1.0850 549m 1

FX option expiries for Mar 29 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts         1.0685 1.0b 1.0700 2.5b 1.0850 549m 1.1000 1.3b - USD/JPY: USD amounts                      128.00 585m 130.75 630m 131.60 1.0b - AUD/USD: AUD amounts   0.6650 681m 0.6800 566m

The USD/JPY pair is hovering near its weekly high at 131.75 in the early European session. The asset is expected to extend its upside journey towards

USD/JPY is marching towards 132.00 as easing US banking jitters have trimmed the appeal for the Japanese Yen as a safe-haven.Ex-BoJ Kuroda has reiterated the need for the continuation of expansionary monetary policy.Monthly core PCE would accelerate by 0.4%, lower than the former expansion of 0.6%.The USD/JPY pair is hovering near its weekly high at 131.75 in the early European session. The asset is expected to extend its upside journey towards 132.00 amid renewed fears of the continuation of ultra-loose monetary policy by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). For the past few months, the Japanese Yen was attracting bullish bets on hopes that the BoJ will exit from its decade-long expansionary policy after the arrival of novel BoJ leadership. However, an absence of hawkish commentary from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda after holding the highest chair in the central bank has faded expectations of a shift in the policy stance. Meanwhile, ultra-dovish commentary from ex-BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has added fuel to fire. Ex-BoJ Kuroda cited “It is premature to debate an exit from easy monetary policy.” And, “More time is needed to stably and sustainably hit the price target.” The requirement of a dovish policy looks likely as the sustained inflation target has not been met yet. Apart from that, receding fears of a potential United States banking crisis have faded the appeal for the Japanese Yen as a safe-haven. US authorities are making efforts in infusing confidence among households and investors that their deposits are safe. Also, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has shown some recovery after correcting to near 102.40 as investors are expecting that fading fears of US banking shakedown could propel chances of one more rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This week, the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data will remain in focus. As per the consensus, monthly core PCE would accelerate by 0.4%, lower than the former expansion of 0.6%. And, the annual figure is expected to remain steady at 4.7%.  

Denmark Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous -6.2% to -4.3% in February

Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey below expectations (-29.2) in April: Actual (-29.5)

Sweden Retail Sales (MoM) registered at -1.2%, below expectations (-0.4%) in February

Norway Retail Sales registered at 0.2% above expectations (-1.1%) in February

Sweden Retail Sales (YoY) registered at -9.4%, below expectations (-6.6%) in February

Natural Gas (XNG/USD) holds lower ground near $2.20 as bears poke the Year-To-Date (YTD) low marked in February. In doing so, the energy quote remains

Natural fades the previous day’s corrective bounce off five-week low.Sustained trading below two-week-old descending trend line favors bears.Yearly low, early July 2020 top can prod XNG/USD bears before directing them to 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion.Bulls need validation from a downward-sloping resistance line from late December 2022.Natural Gas (XNG/USD) holds lower ground near $2.20 as bears poke the Year-To-Date (YTD) low marked in February. In doing so, the energy quote remains sluggish after declining in the last two consecutive days. The XNG/USD bears cheer the sustained trading below a fortnight-long descending resistance line, around $2.27 by the press time, amid bearish MACD signals and an absence of oversold RSI (14). As a result, the Natural Gas price appears well-set to slip beneath the yearly low of $2.13, which in turn highlights the $2.00 psychological magnet. However, the early July 2020 high surrounding $1.97 and the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of its moves during early January-March 2023, around $1.80, could challenge the Natural Gas bears afterward, amid a likely oversold RSI line around then. On the contrary, an upside break of the stated immediate resistance line, close to $2.27, isn’t an open invitation to the Natural Gas buyers as another downward-sloping trend line from the year’s start, near $2.40 at the latest, acts as an additional check for the XNG/USD bulls. Should the quote manages to remain firmer past $2.40, the odds of witnessing a rally toward the mid-March high of $2.75 can’t be ruled out. Natural Gas Price: Daily chart Trend: Further downside expected

Gold price recaptured the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the March advance, pegged at $1,963, on a daily closing basis on Tuesday. Holdin

Gold price recaptured the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the March advance, pegged at $1,963, on a daily closing basis on Tuesday. Holding above here is critical to see further gains, FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta reports. Awaiting a fresh catalyst “Gold bulls have paused for a cause, awaiting a fresh catalyst to resume its upside, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding comfortably above the midline.” “If the 23.6% Fibo resistance-turned-support holds the fort, Gold price could turn higher to challenge Monday’s high at $1,981. The next significant resistance for Gold buyers is seen at the $2,000 mark.” “Alternatively, a breach of the abovementioned Fibo support will recall Gold sellers for a test of the $1,950 psychological level. Further south, $1,934, which is the 38.2% Fibo level of the same ascent, will challenge bullish commitments.”  

The greenback, in terms of the USD Index (DXY), regains some composure and revisits the 102.50/60 area on Wednesday. USD Index looks at risk trends, b

The index advances slightly around the 102.50/60 band.US yields trade without clear direction so far on Wednesday.Weekly Mortgage Applications, Pending Home Sales next on tap.The greenback, in terms of the USD Index (DXY), regains some composure and revisits the 102.50/60 area on Wednesday. USD Index looks at risk trends, banking sector The current bullish attempt comes after two consecutive daily declines and on the back of the tepid knee-jerk in the risk complex as well as the lack of direction surrounding US yields. In the meantime, banking concerns appear far from abated and somewhat underpin the better tone in the dollar via a firmer demand for the safe haven universe. On the negative side for the buck, the likelihood that the Federal Reserve might pause its tightening stance at the May gathering continues to weigh on the currency, at the time when the probability of this scenario hovers around 60% according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. In the US data space, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications are due seconded by Pending Home Sales and the weekly report on US crude oil inventories by the EIA. What to look for around USD The index picks up some pace and retakes the mid-102.00s amidst some correction in the risk complex on Wednesday. So far, speculation of a potential Fed’s pivot in the short-term horizon should keep weighing on the dollar, although the still elevated inflation, the resilience of the US economy and the hawkish narrative from Fed speakers are all seen playing against that view for the time being.Key events in the US this week: MBA Mortgage Applications, Pending Home Sales (Wednesday) – Final Q4 GDP Growth Rate, Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday) – PCE, Personal Income/Spending, Final Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Friday).Eminent issues on the back boiler: Persistent debate over a soft/hard landing of the US economy. Terminal Interest rate near the peak vs. speculation of rate cuts in 2024. Fed’s pivot. Geopolitical effervescence vs. Russia and China. US-China trade conflict. USD Index relevant levels Now, the index is advancing 0.17% at 102.59 and faces the next resistance level at 103.36 (55-day SMA) followed by 104.15 (100-day SMA) and then 105.88 (2023 high March 8). On the other hand, the breach of 101.93 (monthly low March 23) would open the door to 100.82 (2023 low February 2) and finally 100.00 (psychological level).  

USD/CHF keeps buyers in the driver’s seat during the early Wednesday’s sluggish markets. That said, the Swiss currency pair rose the most in nearly a

USD/CHF grinds higher after posting the biggest daily gains in two weeks.US Dollar pares recent losses amid sluggish session amid challenges to risk-on mood, firmer yields.Swiss data, SNB Bulletin will be crucial for fresh impetus.USD/CHF keeps buyers in the driver’s seat during the early Wednesday’s sluggish markets. That said, the Swiss currency pair rose the most in nearly a fortnight the previous day before portraying the latest inaction above 0.9200, up 0.10% near 0.9208 by the press time. The latest challenges to the previous optimism, mainly from the geopolitical front, join upbeat US Treasury bond yields to help the US Dollar in extending the late Tuesday’s rebound from the weekly low. Among them, headlines suggesting the US blacklisting of Chinese companies and Beijing’s dislike for a meeting between the White House Speak and Taiwan President. Also testing the risk-on mood could be the two-week high upbeat US inflation expectations, per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED). Even so, the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) ability to tame the Credit Suisse turmoil, as well as optimism surrounding the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) deal, keeps the risk profile positive. It’s worth noting that an absence of major disappointments from the US data also allows the USD/CHF pair to grind higher. On Tuesday, US Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence rose to 104.2 in March, versus 101.0 expected and an upwardly revised prior figure of 103.4. Further, US Housing Price Index rose 0.2% MoM in January versus -0.6% expected and -0.1% prior while the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices matched 2.5% YoY forecasts for the said month compared to 4.5% previous readings. Amid these plays, US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields print a three-day uptrend around 3.58% and 4.10% respectively while the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains, the first in three. Further, the US Dollar Index (DXY) picks up bids to 102.60 while printing the first daily gains in three. Looking forward, Swiss ZEW Survey details for March can offer immediate directions to the USD/CHF pair ahead of the SNB’s Quarterly Bulletin and the second-tier US data. Given the SNB’s latest defense of the banking sector, the pair traders will seek clues of the Swiss economy’s strength for further directions. Above all, Friday’s US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for February, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favorite inflation gauge, will be crucial for a clear guide. Technical analysis A clear upside break of a three-week-long descending trend line, now immediate support near 0.9195, directs USD/CHF buyers towards the 50-DMA hurdle surrounding 0.9255. 

Markets in the Asian domain have shown a decent recovery as fears of a potential United States banking crisis have receded and escalating chances of a

Asian stocks have demonstrated a firmer recovery as US banking jitters have eased further.Japanese stocks have rebounded as the BoJ has favored the continuation of easy monetary policy.Oil price is struggling in extending its recovery above $74.00 ahead of inventory data.Markets in the Asian domain have shown a decent recovery as fears of a potential United States banking crisis have receded and escalating chances of a steady monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed). S&P500 futures have generated significant gains in the Asian session after a choppy Tuesday. Ebbing fears of US banking shakedown are infusing confidence among the market participants. It would be worth discovering whether deposits in mid-size US banks by households are reverting or not. At the press time, Japan’s Nikkei225 jumped 0.71%, ChinaA50 added 0.28%, Hang Seng soared 2.17%, and Nifty50 gained 0.54%. Japanese stocks have rebounded as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has favored for the continuation of easy monetary policy to keep inflation steady above desired levels. Ex-Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remained extremely dovish for further monetary policy as the sustainable inflation target has not been met yet. He further added, “It is premature to debate an exit from easy monetary policy.” And, “More time is needed to stably and sustainably hit the price target.” Chinese stocks have shown a decent recovery ahead of the PMIs, which will release on Friday. China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will report Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing data, which is expected to show a decent performance as the administration is supporting growth with monetary and non-monetary measures. Deputy Director General of China’s National Development and Reform Commission of the People's Republic of China (NDRC) said in a statement on Wednesday, “we are confident about the growth condition for this year.” He further added, “China's potential growth rate is the same as the potential growth rate of the entire world.” On the oil front, the oil price is struggling in extending its recovery above $74.00. The black gold has turned sideways as investors are awaiting the release of the oil inventory data by US Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the week ending March 24.  

Considering advanced prints from CME Group for gold futures markets, open interest shrank for the second session in a row on Tuesday, this time by aro

Considering advanced prints from CME Group for gold futures markets, open interest shrank for the second session in a row on Tuesday, this time by around 2.3K contracts. Volume followed suit and dropped by around 9.8K contracts, also reaching the second consecutive daily pullback. Gold: Further downside could retest $1935Gold prices attempted a moderate rebound on Tuesday. The bullish attempt, however, was on the back of shrinking open interest and volume and leaves the precious metal vulnerable to further losses in the very near term. That said, the next contention area emerges around the $1935 region per ounce troy.

China's Taiwan Affairs Office threatened retaliation over Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen's visit to the US on Wednesday. Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson of

China's Taiwan Affairs Office threatened retaliation over Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen's visit to the US on Wednesday.  Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson of China's Taiwan Affairs Office said at a news conference, “if she contacts US House Speaker McCarthy, it will be another provocation that seriously violates the one-China principle, harms China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and destroys peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. We firmly oppose this and will definitely take measures to resolutely fight back." In response, Reuters cited senior US officials, as saying that “China shouldn't overreact to Taiwan president's transit.” Additional comments “Taiwan president's planned transit is consistent with long-standing US practice.” “Urgs China to keep open channels of communication.” “See no reason for Beijing to overreact. “China's attempts to alter Taiwan's status quo will not pressure the US to change this.”

Outgoing Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kuroda said on Wednesday, “Japan is closer than before to sustainably hit the 2% inflation target.” Kuroda added

Outgoing Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kuroda said on Wednesday, “Japan is closer than before to sustainably hit the 2% inflation target.” Kuroda added that “wage pressure is heightening.” Market reaction USD/JPY was last seen trading at 131.72, up 0.66% on the day.

EUR/USD is still seen trading within 1.0660 and 1.0870 in the next few weeks, suggest Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang at U

EUR/USD is still seen trading within 1.0660 and 1.0870 in the next few weeks, suggest Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Yesterday, we noted ‘Upward momentum has improved somewhat’ and held the view that ‘while EUR could break above 1.0830; it is unlikely to threaten the next resistance at 1.0870’. Our view turned out to be correct as EUR rose to a 1.0848 before settling near the high at 1.0843 (+0.44%). Upward momentum has improved, albeit not much. Today, EUR could rise above 1.0870 but the chances of it staying above this level are not high. The next resistance is at 1.0900. Support is at 1.0820; a break of 1.0800 would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Our latest narrative was from two days ago (27 Mar, spot at 1.0775) wherein we were of the view that EUR ‘appears to have entered a consolidation phase and it is likely to trade between 1.0660 and 1.0870 for the time being’. While there is no change in our view, short-term upward momentum is building, albeit tentatively. Looking ahead, EUR has to break and stay above 1.0900 before a sustained advance is likely. The prospect of EUR breaking clearly above 1.0900 is low for now but it would remain intact as long as EUR stays above the ‘strong support’ level of 1.0770 in the next few days.”

NZD/USD prints mild gains around 0.6260 during early Wednesday in Europe as bulls take a breather following the previous day’s run-up, the biggest in

NZD/USD grinds higher at weekly top, extends the previous day’s rebound.Upbeat RSI, bullish MACD signals keep buyers hopeful.Six-week-old descending resistance line, key DMAs challenge Kiwi pair buyers.Downside break of three-week-long ascending support line can recall bears.NZD/USD prints mild gains around 0.6260 during early Wednesday in Europe as bulls take a breather following the previous day’s run-up, the biggest in over a week. In doing so, the Kiwi pair fades upside momentum below the key resistances while defending a two-day run-up. That said, the quote’s sustained U-turn from a three-week-old ascending support line joins bullish MACD signals to keep buyers. Adding strength to the upside hopes is the steady RSI (14). However, the downward-sloping resistance line from mid-February, close to 0.6280 at the latest, restricts the immediate upside of the NZD/USD pair. Following that, a convergence of the 50-DMA and 100-DMA challenges the Kiwi pair buyers around 0.6285-95. It’s worth noting that the 0.6300 round figure acts as an extra filter towards the north, a break of which won’t hesitate to challenge the mid-February high surrounding 0.6390. Meanwhile, pullback moves need validation from the aforementioned immediate support line, close to 0.6195 by the press time. In a case where NZD/USD remains bearish past 0.6195, multiple lows marked since late November 2022, around 0.6090-80, may gain the market’s attention. Overall, NZD/USD is likely to remain firmer but the upside momentum remains less convincing below 0.6300. NZD/USD: Daily chart Trend: Limited upside expected  

The GBP/USD pair has shown a recovery move after a gradual correction to near 1.2320 in the Asian session. The Cable is aiming to recapture the immedi

GBP/USD has sensed buying interest near 1.2320 as USD Index has retreated.S&P500 futures are continuously adding gains as the appeal for risk-sensitive assets has accelerated.UK growth rate is expected to remain stagnant in the fourth quarter.The GBP/USD pair has shown a recovery move after a gradual correction to near 1.2320 in the Asian session. The Cable is aiming to recapture the immediate resistance of 1.2350 as the US Dollar Index (DXY) has retreated after a rebound to near 102.60. Bearish bets have resumed for the US Dollar Index (DXY) amid easing fears of the United States banking crisis and rising odds of a steady stance on interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) ahead. The USD Index is expected to revert to its intraday low of 102.40 as the risk appetite of the market participants is improving further. S&P500 futures are continuously adding gains as the appeal for risk-sensitive assets has accelerated. US equities have hogged the limelight as ebbing fears of US banking shakedown are fueling confidence among the market participants. Meanwhile, the demand for US government bonds has rebounded, which has trimmed the 10-year US Treasury yields to 3.55%. The Pound Sterling has gained sufficient strength as Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey won’t shy of hiking rates further if there would be evidence of persistent inflation. The street is anticipating that the BoE cannot dodge more rate hikes as the double-digit United Kingdom inflation would not come down easily. For further guidance, investors will keep an eye on UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which is scheduled for Friday. As per the consensus, UK’s growth has remained stagnant in the fourth quarter of CY2022. Annual GDP is expected to remain steady at 0.4%. The UK economy is expected to witness a deep recession due to the synergetic effect of stagnant growth and sticky inflation.  

USD/CAD retreats from intraday high, fading bounce off three-week low, as it traces the early Wednesday’s sluggish markets around 1.3600. In doing so,

USD/CAD stays defensive after bouncing off three-week low, prods two-day downtrend.Recent challenges to market’s optimism join firmer yields to underpin US Dollar rebound.WTI crude oil fails to cheer heavy inventory draw at the highest level in fortnight.BoC’s Gravelle, second-tier US housing data eyed for fresh impulse.USD/CAD retreats from intraday high, fading bounce off three-week low, as it traces the early Wednesday’s sluggish markets around 1.3600. In doing so, the Loonie pair also takes clues from the lackluster prices of WTI crude oil, Canada’s main export item. However, the latest challenges to sentiment and the US Dollar’s corrective bounce prods the pair’s two-day downtrend near the multi-day bottom ahead of a speech from Bank of Canada (BoC) Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle. That said, WTI crude oil seesaws around a two-week high as Oil buyers seek more clues to extend the latest gains, backed by heavy inventory draw and receding fears of the banking crisis. That said, the weekly prints of the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) Crude Oil Stock data marked a surprise daw in inventories by flashing -6.076M figure for the week ended on March 24 versus the previous addition of 3.262M. On the other hand, US Dollar Index (DXY) picks up bids to 102.60 while printing the first daily gains in three. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies traces upbeat US Treasury bond yields amid mixed US data and the market’s indecision. Talking about the prevailing cautious optimism, the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) deal and policymakers’ efforts to defend their respective banking system, not to forget the central banks’ confirmations that the financial crisis is off the table, keep the market mildly positive. However, the latest geopolitical fears emanating from China join the upbeat US inflation expectations to trigger the US Dollar’s corrective bounce, due to the greenback’s haven appeal. It’s worth observing that the recent US blacklisting of Chinese companies and China’s dislike for the meeting of the White House speaker and Taiwan President challenge the sentiment. Amid these plays, US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields print a three-day uptrend around 3.58% and 4.10% respectively while the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains, the first in three. Looking forward, USD/CAD traders should pay attention to risk catalysts, as well as a speech from BoC’s Gravelle for clear directions. However, major attention will be given to the US inflation data, up for release on Friday. Technical analysis 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) probes the Loonie pair’s two-day downtrend near 1.3590 at the latest. However, the Loonie pair’s failure to cross the key horizontal resistance surrounding 1.3845-65, established since September 2022, joins the bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI (14), not oversold, to keep the Loonie pair sellers hopeful.  

Gold price (XAU/USD) has dropped after failing to sustain above $1,970.00 in the Asian session. The precious metal has lost its appeal as fears of the

Gold price is declining towards $1960.00 as investors are getting anxious ahead of US PCE inflation data.The reputation of Gold as a safe-haven amid US banking jitters has ebbed.On a broader note, Gold price is auctioning in a Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern.Gold price (XAU/USD) has dropped after failing to sustain above $1,970.00 in the Asian session. The precious metal has lost its appeal as fears of the United States banking crisis have receded significantly. The Gold price is expected to extend its correction further as the US Dollar Index (DXY) has shown a recovery move. The USD Index has rebounded after building an intermediate cushion around 102.40. The USD Index has extended its recovery to near 102.60 as investors are shifting their focus to core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data, which is scheduled for Friday. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge is expected to accelerate by 0.4%, lower than the former expansion of 0.6%. The annual figure is expected to remain steady at 4.7%. A deceleration in the pace of consumer spending on core goods will further ease the chances of one more rate hike by the Fed. Chances are favoring a decline in consumer spending as labor cost index remained lower than anticipated. Also, US banks have tightened credit conditions for households and businesses after the collapse of three mid-size banks. Meanwhile, S&P500 futures have generated firmer gains in the Asian session after a rangebound auction on Tuesday. US equities have been underpinned on hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep rates steady ahead. Gold technical analysis Gold price has dropped after a pullback move to near the prior order block region placed in a range of $1,968-1,980 on an hourly scale. On a broader note, the precious metal is auctioning in a Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern. The Gold price is struggling in holding its auction above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,968.00. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has failed in sustaining inside the bullish range of 60.00-80.00. Gold hourly chart  

USD/INR picks up bids to pare weekly losses around 82.30 as it snaps a two-day downtrend amid early Wednesday. In doing so, the Indian Rupee pair rebo

USD/INR extends bounce off three-week-old support line towards short-term key resistance.200-SMA, fortnight-long descending trend line challenges Indian Rupee bears.Steady RSI suggests further grinding of prices inside triangle formation.USD/INR picks up bids to pare weekly losses around 82.30 as it snaps a two-day downtrend amid early Wednesday. In doing so, the Indian Rupee pair rebounds from an ascending support line from March 06, and stays within the short-term symmetrical triangle. It’s worth noting, however, that the steady RSI (14) line hints at the USD/INR pair’s further dribbling inside the stated triangle, currently between 82.15 and 82.50. That said, the 200-SMA adds strength to the triangle’s top line surrounding 82.50, making it a tough nut to crack for the USD/INR bulls. In a case where USD/INR price rallies beyond 82.50, a one-month-old descending resistance line near 82.85 can challenge the pair buyers before directing them to the multiple resistance area surrounding the 83.00 psychological magnet. On the flip side, a clear break of the 82.15 level can quickly drag the USD/INR bears towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s late January-February upside, near 81.70. During the fall, the 82.00 round figure may act as an intermediate halt while the monthly low of near 81.50 acts as an extra filter towards the south. Overall, USD/INR is likely to remain sidelined but the multiple hurdles toward the north keep the pair sellers hopeful. USD/INR: Four-hour chart Trend: Limited upside expected  

The AUD/USD pair is displaying topsy-turvy moves below the round-level resistance of 0.6700 in the Asian session. The Aussie asset has turned rangebou

AUD/USD has shifted its business below 0.6700 after the Australian CPI softens consecutively.Subdued retail demand weighed heavily on Australian inflation.The 20-period EMA at 0.6686 is acting as a cushion for the Australian Dollar.The AUD/USD pair is displaying topsy-turvy moves below the round-level resistance of 0.6700 in the Asian session. The Aussie asset has turned rangebound after a vertical downside move post-softening of the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI). Monthly Australian inflation (Fed) softened further to 6.9% from the prior release of 7.4% as households’ spending has trimmed dramatically. Households are struggling in bearing the burden of inflated goods and services with their nominal growth in earnings. This has bolstered the intention of pausing the policy-tightening spell by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) from its April meeting. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has shown a firmer recovery from 102.40. The recovery move by the USD Index has escalated to 102.60. On a two-hour scale, AUD/USD has shown a decent upside after sensing strength near the upward-sloping trendline of the Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern, which is placed from March 10 low at 0.6564. The downward-sloping trendline of the chart pattern is plotted from March 01 high at 0.6784. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6686 is acting as a cushion for the Australian Dollar. In addition to that, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is making efforts in keeping itself in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which will keep the Australian Dollar in the grip of bulls. Should the asset breaks above March 13 high at 0.6717, Aussie bulls would drive the asset further toward March 07 high at 0.67478 followed by the horizontal resistance plotted from February 23 low at 0.6781. On the contrary, a slippage below March 15 low at 0.6564 will drag the asset toward October 4 high at 0.6547 and the round-level support at 0.6500. AUD/USD two-hour chart  

EUR/USD witnesses headwinds at the weekly top as Euro traders remain cautious ahead of the key German clues. Adding strength to the pullback moves cou

EUR/USD retreats from weekly top, prints mild losses while snapping two-day uptrend.Mixed sentiment, month-end positioning allow US Dollar to lick its wounds amid firmer US Treasury bond yields.Comparatively more hawkish ECB talks than the Fed counterpart keep buyers hopeful unless German, European HICP disappoints.EUR/USD witnesses headwinds at the weekly top as Euro traders remain cautious ahead of the key German clues. Adding strength to the pullback moves could be firmer yields and a rebound in US Dollar amid mixed sentiment. That said, the Euro pair eases to 1.0835, printing mild losses during early Wednesday, as it snaps a two-day winning streak. US Dollar Index (DXY) picks up bids to 102.60 while printing the first daily gains in three. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies traces upbeat US Treasury bond yields amid mixed US data and the market’s indecision. It’s worth noting that the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) deal and policymakers’ efforts to defend their respective banking system, not to forget the central banks’ confirmations that the financial crisis is off the table, keep the market cautiously optimistic. However, the latest geopolitical fears emanating from China, mainly due to the US blacklisting some more Chinese companies, join the upbeat US inflation expectations to weigh on the EUR/USD price. On the same line was the news that French authorities raided five banks on tax avoidance and money laundering concerns, as well as the talks surrounding the $5.4 million Credit Default Swap (CDS) trade of Deutsche Bank. Talking about the data, US Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence rose to 104.2 in March, versus 101.0 expected and an upwardly revised prior figure of 103.4. Further, US Housing Price Index rose 0.2% MoM in January versus -0.6% expected and -0.1% prior while the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices matched 2.5% YoY forecasts for the said month compared to 4.5% previous readings. Against this backdrop, US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields print a three-day uptrend around 3.58% and 4.10% respectively while the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains, the first in three. Looking ahead, EUR/USD may witness further pullback amid fresh challenges to sentiment and upbeat US inflation expectations, per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED). However, the European Central Bank (ECB) officials have been more hawkish than their Federal Reserve (Fed) counterparts and hence firmer prints of inflation data can allow the EUR/USD buyers to return to the table. On Tuesday, ECB policymaker Madis Muller said that “although inflation is decreasing, it is still too soon to declare success.” On the same line were comments from Andrea Enria, Chair of the Supervisory Board of the European Central Bank (ECB), who said on Tuesday that direct exposure to Credit Suisse is relevant but manageable. Moving on, Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for April will be crucial for providing initial signals for Thursday’s inflation numbers. Following that, second-tier statistics from the US will be important to watch for clear directions. Technical analysis Although a two-month-old horizontal resistance challenges EUR/USD buyers around 1.0930, the 10-DMA level surrounding 1.0770 puts a short-term floor under the Euro pair.  

Silver price (XAG/USD) prints 0.35% intraday losses around $23.25 as bulls run out of steam during early Wednesday, after posting positive closings in

Silver price struggles to extend two-week uptrend, seesaws around intraday low of late.Failure to cross previous support line joins RSI retreat to lure XAG/USD sellers.61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 50-SMA restrict short-term downside of the Silver price.XAG/USD bulls need to refresh monthly high to keep the driver’s seat.Silver price (XAG/USD) prints 0.35% intraday losses around $23.25 as bulls run out of steam during early Wednesday, after posting positive closings in the last two consecutive weeks. The bright metal’s latest retreat could be linked to the failure of crossing the previous support line from March 16, now immediate resistance near $23.45. Also challenging the Silver buyers is the latest U-turn in the RSI (14), as well as the lower high formation of the oscillator’s line. As a result, the XAG/USD sellers may again try to break the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the metal’s February-March fall, also known as the golden Fibonacci ratio, around $22.80. It’s worth noting that the 50-SMA, around $22.75 by press time, also acts as a short-term downside filter. Should the XAG/USD breaks the stated SMA support, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the 200-SMA support near $21.60 can’t be ruled out. However, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, close to $22.30, may act as an intermediate halt during the fall. On the flip side, a clear break of the stated support-turned-resistance, near $23.45, isn’t an open welcome to the Silver buyers as the previous tops surrounding $23.55 could check the upside momentum. Following that, a run-up towards $24.00 and then to February’s high near $24.65 can’t be ruled out. Silver price: Four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

USD/MXN holds lower grounds near 18.22 as sellers flirt with the lowest levels in three weeks during early Wednesday. In doing so, the Mexican Peso pa

USD/MXN dribbles around three-week low as bears take a breather during five-day downtrend.US Dollar bears the burden of risk-on mood, mixed data.Hawkish hopes from Banxico contrast with the Fed policy pivot talks to weigh on Mexican Peso pair.USD/MXN holds lower grounds near 18.22 as sellers flirt with the lowest levels in three weeks during early Wednesday. In doing so, the Mexican Peso pair drops for the fifth consecutive day. The quote’s latest weakness could be linked to the market’s cautious optimism surrounding the health of the global banking system, as well as the likely easing in recession woes in some of the developed nations due to the double-barrel attack of COVID-19 and geopolitics. However, a comparatively less hawkish bias for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) than the Banxico appears the key catalyst for the USD/MXN pair’s south-run. Be it the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) deal or the European and the US policymakers’ readiness to defend their respective banking system, not to forget bold efforts by the major central banks to infuse US Dollar-linked liquidity in the market, the traders seem to cheer them all of late. However, a lack of major catalysts allows them to take a breather. On the same line could be the mixed US data as the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence rose to 104.2 in March, versus 101.0 expected and an upwardly revised prior figure of 103.4. Further, US Housing Price Index rose 0.2% MoM in January versus -0.6% expected and -0.1% prior while the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices matched 2.5% YoY forecasts for the said month compared to 4.5% previous readings. On the contrary, Mexican Trade Balance marked a wider deficit in February, to $1.844B versus the $0.9B expected. It should be noted that the news that Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers will convene a meeting of the country's top financial regulators to check how the latest volatility in global financial markets could affect the country, an official in the treasurer's office said on Tuesday per Reuters, prod the optimism. Furthermore, a discussion revealing the US and European regulators’ dislike for the latest banking fallouts and risks associated with it joined the much-debated $5.4 million Credit Default Swap (CDS) trade of Deutsche Bank to prod the risk-on mood. Amid these plays, US Treasury bond yields print a three-day uptrend while the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains, the first in three. Looking ahead, the second-tier US housing numbers may entertain market players but more important will be the headlines surrounding the global banking sector's health and easing fears of more rate hikes by the top-tier central banks. Technical analysis The last Wednesday’s corrective bounce failed to cross the 50-DMA hurdle, around 18.56 by the press time, which in turn directs USD/MXN bears towards the 18.00 round figure.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said on Wednesday, they “won't foretell markets on information ahead of every monetary policy meet

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi  Uchida said on Wednesday, they “won't foretell markets on information ahead of every monetary policy meeting.” Uchida noted that the central bank “will make a judgment on trend inflation by looking at various indicators.” Related readsUSD/JPY Price Analysis: 200-HMA prods bulls around mid-131.00sGBP/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls looking to pounce again at a discount

USD/JPY struggles around intraday high, after a stellar run-up to 131.66, as the key moving average challenges the Yen pair buyers during early Wednes

USD/JPY bulls take a breather after rising nearly 80-pips on key resistance break.Nearly Overbought RSI conditions join 200-HMA to challenge Yen pair buyers.Three-week-old descending trend line adds to the upside filters.Weekly support line stops bears from retaking control.USD/JPY struggles around intraday high, after a stellar run-up to 131.66, as the key moving average challenges the Yen pair buyers during early Wednesday. Also testing the upside momentum are the overbought conditions of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) line, placed at 14. That said, USD/JPY rallied nearly 85 pips on breaking a fortnight-long descending trend line. The recovery moves, however, failed to cross the 200-Hour Moving Average (HMA). It’s worth noting that the MACD signals are bullish and can join the latest trend line breakout to propel Yen prices beyond the latest HMA hurdle surrounding 131.55. Even so, a downward-sloping resistance line from March 08, close to 131.90 by the press time, closely followed by the 132.00 round figure, could challenge the USD/JPY bulls. On the contrary, pullback moves remain elusive unless staying beyond the previous resistance line, around 131.05 at the latest. Following that, an ascending trend line from the last Friday, close to 130.60, will precede the latest swing low around 129.65 to act as the last defence of the USD/JPY bulls. To sum up, the USD/JPY pair is likely to grind higher even if the bullish trend appears far from here. USD/JPY: Hourly chart Trend: Limited upside expected  

The NZD/USD pair is struggling in shifting its auction above 0.6260 in the Asian session. The Kiwi asset is facing hurdles as the US Dollar Index (DXY

NZD/USD is facing hurdles in shifting its auction above 0.6260.The USD Index has shown a recovery move, however, the downside bias seems healthy amid the risk-on mood.A 25bp rate hike is expected from the RBNZ, which will push the OCR to 5%.The NZD/USD pair is struggling in shifting its auction above 0.6260 in the Asian session. The Kiwi asset is facing hurdles as the US Dollar Index (DXY) has shown a recovery move near 102.40. The USD Index has found an intermediate cushion around 102.40, however, the downside bias has not faded yet as investors are split about the interest rate decision to be taken by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in May. S&P500 futures have generated significant gains in the Asian session after a choppy Tuesday on hopes that fears United States banking crisis would recede further. The overall market sentiment looks positive amid improved risk appetite for risk-sensitive assets. The demand for US government bonds is getting dented further amid decelerating US banking jitters. This has increased 10-year US Treasury yields to 3.58%. Going forward, the release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index (Feb) data will be of significant importance. As per the consensus, monthly core PCE would accelerate by 0.4%, lower than the former expansion of 0.6%. The annual figure is expected to remain steady at 4.7%. A deceleration in the pace of consumer spending on core goods will further ease the chances of one more rate hike by the Fed.  As per the CME Fedwatch tool, less than 50% odds are in favor of a one more 25 basis point (bp) rate hike by the Fed for its May meeting. On the New Zealand Dollar front, investors are expecting a less-hawkish monetary policy stance by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) next week due to the dismal economic outlook. Analysts at ANZ Bank expect the RBNZ will raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bp to 5.00% at its Monetary Policy Review (MPR) next Wednesday. A deceleration in the pace of rate hikes is optimal for decelerating economy. The report from ANZ Bank also dictated that the OCR would peak at 5.25% with one more hike to come in May.  

GBP/JPY is climbing in Asia as the Yen gets sold off. The bulls are sitting in the wings looking for a discount as the following illustrates. GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY bulls sit tight in anticipation of a discount. Bulls eye a run to 162.50 for the session ahead. GBP/JPY is climbing in Asia as the Yen gets sold off. The bulls are sitting in the wings looking for a discount as the following illustrates.  GBP/JPY H1 charts The W-formation is a reversion pattern and while the price is hugging the dynamic trendline support, a correction into the neckline would be expected to be met with buying force to propel the pair higher in due course woth 162.50 eyed. GBP/JPY M5 chart GBP/JPY bulls are lurking on the 5 min chart where prior resistance meets the combination of the 61.8% and 38.2% ratios near 162.00.

Deputy Director General of China’s National Development and Reform Commission of the People's Republic of China (NDRC) said in a statement on Wednesda

Deputy Director General of China’s National Development and Reform Commission of the People's Republic of China (NDRC) said in a statement on Wednesday, “we are confident about the growth condition for this year.” “China's potential growth rate is the same as the potential growth rate of the entire world,” he added. Market reaction AUD/USD licks its wounds below 0.6700 on softer Australian inflation data and a mixed market mood. The pair is down 0.22% on the day, trading at 0.6993, as of writing.

Risk appetite stays firmer despite early Wednesday’s inactive markets as traders seek confirmation of banking optimism amid an unimpressive calendar i

Global markets remain dicey as traders await this week’s key data/events.Mixed concerns about banking sector risk, US-China woes and Fed bets also limit trading activities.S&P 500 Futures snap two-day losing streak, yields rise for the third consecutive day.Risk catalysts are the key for clear directions, banking news, geopolitics are important for fresh impetus.Risk appetite stays firmer despite early Wednesday’s inactive markets as traders seek confirmation of banking optimism amid an unimpressive calendar in Asia. While portraying the mood, US Treasury bond yields print three-day uptrend while the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains, the first in three. That said, the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields recently refreshed intraday high around 3.58% and 4.12% in that order. It should be noted that the receding fears of a banking crisis and hopes of less aggressive rate hikes from the top-tier central banks seem to gain the market’s attention. Also keeping the traders positive are chatters that the likely recession in some of the developed countries will be less severe than initially expected. Furthermore, recently mixed US data and challenges for the Fed hawks also keep the market players optimistic, which in turn weigh on the US Dollar even as the yields recover of late. Alternatively, headlines from the South China Morning Post (SCMP) suggests that he US has added 5 Chinese firms to its trade blacklist, which in turn should have probed the market’s optimism. On the same line is the news that Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers will convene a meeting of the country's top financial regulators to check how the latest volatility in global financial markets could affect the country, an official in the treasurer's office said on Tuesday per Reuters, prod the optimism. Furthermore, a discussion revealing the US and European regulators’ dislike for the latest banking fallouts and risks associated with it joined the much-debated $5.4 million Credit Default Swap (CDS) trade of Deutsche Bank to prod the risk-on mood. Moving on, the second-tier US housing numbers may entertain market players but more important will be the headlines surrounding the global banking sector's health and easing fears of more rate hikes by the top-tier central banks. Also read: Forex Today: Dollar keeps moving south as markets settle down

GBP/USD extends pullback from an eight-week high while printing mild losses near 1.2330 during early Wednesday. In doing so, the Cable pair prints the

GBP/USD retreats from the highest levels since early February, snaps two-day uptrend.Overbought RSI, bearish candlestick formation at multi-day top teases sellers.Weekly support line holds the key for bear’s entry.Previous support line from early March, two-week-long ascending trend line together challenges the bulls.GBP/USD extends pullback from an eight-week high while printing mild losses near 1.2330 during early Wednesday. In doing so, the Cable pair prints the first daily loss in three. Given the nearly overbought RSI (14), coupled with the bearish Doji candlestick at the multi-day top, the GBP/USD pair is likely to decline further. However, an upward-sloping support line from the last Friday, around 1.2300 by the press time, restricts the short-term downside of the Cable pair. Following that, the 50-SMA and the March 24 bottom, respectively near 1.2250 and 1.2190, could challenge the GBP/USD bears. It’s worth noting that the 100-SMA level surrounding 1.2135 acts as the last defense of the GBP/USD buyers, a break of which won’t hesitate to prod the mid-month low of near the 1.2000 psychological magnet. On the flip side, a convergence of the previous support line from March 08 and a fortnight-long ascending trend line, around 1.2390, challenges the GBP/USD buyers. Even if the quote rises past 1.2390, multiple tops marked during late 2022 and early 2023, around 1.2445-50, appear a tough nut to crack for the Cable pair buyers. To sum up, GBP/USD is likely bracing for a pullback but the reversal of the latest bullish trend is far from sight. GBP/USD: Four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan at 6.8771 vs. the previous closing of 6.8755. About the fix China maintains stri

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan at 6.8771 vs. the previous closing of 6.8755. About the fix China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland. The onshore yuan (CNY) differs from the offshore one (CNH) in trading restrictions, this last one is not as tightly controlled. Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day's closing level and quotations taken from the inter-bank dealer.

The USD/CAD pair has sensed stiff barriers near 1.3600 in the Asian session. The downside bias for the Loonie asset seems solid as the US Dollar Index

USD/CAD is facing tough barriers near 1.3600 amid solid oil price and a decline in the USD index.The Canadian economy will receive billions of dollars of tax revenue from banks and insurance companies for dividends they get on investments.Oil price is expected to remain on tenterhooks ahead of US EIA inventory data.The USD/CAD pair has sensed stiff barriers near 1.3600 in the Asian session. The downside bias for the Loonie asset seems solid as the US Dollar Index (DXY) looks prone to further losses below 102.40. The USD Index has found intermediate support near 102.40 but is likely to surrender amid improved risk sentiment. The USD Index is facing immense pressure after easing United States banking jitters. Fears of a US banking crisis have started receding, however, the commentary from US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in an interview at CNBC on Tuesday that there was no need for blanket insurance on all bank deposits "at this moment in time," as reported by Reuters, could stimulate them again. S&P500 futures remained mostly restricted on Tuesday after the commentary from US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. While the overall market sentiment looks cheerful as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to sound steady for its interest rate decision in its next monetary policy meeting in May. Meanwhile, the appeal for US government bonds remained weak as investors believe that the US will be out of the banking crisis sooner. This led to a further rise in 10-year US Treasury yields to 3.57%. The Canadian Dollar remained volatile on Tuesday after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland announced that dividends received by financial institutions from holding domestic shares will be treated as business income, as reported by Bloomberg. This will result in billions of dollars of tax revenue from banks and insurance companies for dividends they get from Canadian firms. On the oil front, the oil price has accelerated to near $74.00 amid a weaker US Dollar and expectations of more sanctions on Russia. For further guidance, oil inventory data by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be keenly watched. As per the consensus, the US EIA will report a small build-up in oil stockpiles by 0.187 million barrels for the week ending March 24. It is worth noting that Canada is the leading exporter of oil to the United States and higher oil price would strengthen the Canadian Dollar further.  

AUD/NZD renews intraday low near 1.0690, marking a near 30-pip slump as Australia’s headline inflation data disappoints early Wednesday. As the downbe

AUD/NZD braces for the biggest daily loss in a week on downbeat Australia inflation.Australia’s Monthly CPI slumps to 6.8% YoY versus 7.1% expected and 7.4% prior.Cautious optimism puts a floor under the prices.Risk catalysts eyed for fresh impetus even as economic calendar becomes interesting.AUD/NZD renews intraday low near 1.0690, marking a near 30-pip slump as Australia’s headline inflation data disappoints early Wednesday. As the downbeat Aussie Retail Sales also join the recently weaker Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the increasing odds of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy pivot keep bears hopeful. That said, Australia’s Monthly Consumer Price Index dropped to 6.8% YoY in February versus 7.2% expected and 7.4% prior. Also read: Aussie CPI misses expectationsa and AUD drops below 0.6700 Although the recent Aussie data favor bears, the market’s cautious optimism allows the AUD/NZD pair to check the bears before giving them control. Behind the risk-on mood could be the receding fears of a banking crisis and hopes of less aggressive rate hikes from the top-tier central banks seem to gain the market’s attention. Also keeping the traders positive are chatters that the likely recession in some of the developed countries will be less severe than initially expected. However, news that Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers will convene a meeting of the country's top financial regulators to check how the latest volatility in global financial markets could affect the country, an official in the treasurer's office said on Tuesday per Reuters, prod the optimism. On the same line could be the much-debated $5.4 million Credit Default Swap (CDS) trade of Deutsche Bank. Furthermore, financial market regulators from the US and Europe also showed their dislike for the market’s curbs and raised fears of late. While portraying the mood, US Treasury bond yields struggle to extend the two-day rebound but S&P 500 Futures print mild gains at the latest. With the latest Aussie data raising fears of no rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), AUD/NZD traders will be more interested in New Zealand’s housing market numbers and the ANZ sentiment figures ahead of China activity data for March. Should these numbers appear strong, the cross-currency pair may witness further downside. Technical analysis The AUD/NZD pair’s sustained bounces off a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since early December 2022, around 1.0660-75, join bullish MACD signals to tease buyers. However, the 21-DMA and the previous day’s Doji candlestick challenge the upside momentum. Furthermore, the steadily rising RSI (14) adds strength to the recovery.  

EUR/USD is stalling on the bid near a five-day high around 1.0850 as euro zone government bond yields rose on Tuesday. The US Dollar fell against a ba

EUR/USD is moving up to key resistance.If EUR/USD holds above 1.0800, then the bias will be longer-term bullish. EUR/USD is stalling on the bid near a five-day high around 1.0850 as euro zone government bond yields rose on Tuesday. The US Dollar fell against a basket of currencies for a second straight day on Tuesday with the DXY,  which measures the currency against six rivals, falling to a low of 102.41, not far now from the seven-week low of 101.91 hit last Thursday. This gives rise to a bullish outlook as illustrated on the following charts: EUR/USD daily chart The daily chart shows the price on the front side of the bullish microtrend breaking out of the bearish wedge.  EUR/USD H1 chart From a lower time frame, the price is moving up to the resistance and a break of dynamic support could be the catalyst for a significant correction. However, holding above 1.0800, the bias is longer-term bullish. 

The AUD/JPY pair has slipped firmly to near 87.80 as the Australian Bureau of Statistics has reported further softening in the monthly Consumer Price

AUD/JPY has dropped sharply to near 87.80 as Australian inflation has softened further to 6.8%.The collaborative effect of weaker Retail Sales and softening price index would support the RBA in keeping policy unchanged.BoJ Kuroda remained extremely dovish for further monetary policy as the sustainable inflation target has not been met yet.The AUD/JPY pair has slipped firmly to near 87.80 as the Australian Bureau of Statistics has reported further softening in the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Feb). The economic data has landed at 6.9%, lower than the consensus of 7.1% and the former release of 7.4%. On Tuesday, Australian Retail Sales expanded by 0.2%, lower than the consensus of 0.4% and the former release of 1.9%. A weaker-than-expected retail demand indicates that households are bearing the burden of higher inflation and are facing issues in offsetting the impact of inflated products with current paying capacity. The collaborative effect of weaker Retail Sales and softening price index would support the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in keeping monetary policy unchanged in its April meeting. Investors should be aware of the fact that RBA Governor Philip Lowe has already pushed its Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.60% in March. Going forward, China’s Bureau of Statistics will report Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI data on Friday. A decent performance is expected by the market participants as the Chinese economy is promoting growth through monetary measures after dismantling pandemic controls. It is worth noting that Australia is the leading trading partner of China and accelerating economic activities in China will also support the Australian Dollar. On the Japanese Yen front, the ex-bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remained extremely dovish for further monetary policy as the sustainable inflation target has not been met yet. He further added, “It is premature to debate an exit from easy monetary policy.” And, “More time is needed to stably and sustainably hit the price target.”  

AUD/USD takes offers to refresh intraday low, snaps two-day uptrend on weak Australia inflation data. Australia’s Monthly CPI dropped to 6.8% YoY in

AUD/USD takes offers to refresh intraday low, snaps two-day uptrend on weak Australia inflation data.Australia’s Monthly CPI dropped to 6.8% YoY in February versus 7.2% YoY expected and 7.4% prior.Market sentiment remains positive despite mixed concerns about the key central banks’ next moves.AUD/USD drops 20 pips to 0.6690 as Aussie inflation disappoints during early Wednesday. In doing so, the risk barometer pair snaps two-day winning streak. That said, Australia’s Monthly Consumer Price Index dropped to 6.8% YoY in February versus 7.2% expected and 7.4% prior. Given the latest slump in the inflation data, the odds of witnessing another 0.25% rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) become unwelcomed and drown the AUD/USD prices, especially after the downbeat Aussie Retail Sales. Also read: Aussie CPI misses expectationsa and AUD drops below 0.6700 Contrary to the downbeat data, a firmer risk profile puts a floor under the AUD/USD pair even if it drops by the press time. While tracing the key catalysts for the latest risk-on mood, receding fears of a banking crisis and hopes of less aggressive rate hikes from the top-tier central banks seem to gain the market’s attention. Also keeping the traders positive are chatters that the likely recession in some of the developed countries will be less severe than initially expected. On the contrary, news that Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers will convene a meeting of the country's top financial regulators to check how the latest volatility in global financial markets could affect the country, an official in the treasurer's office said on Tuesday per Reuters, prod the optimism. On the same line could be the much-debated $5.4 million Credit Default Swap (CDS) trade of Deutsche Bank. Furthermore, financial market regulators from the US and Europe also showed their dislike for the market’s curbs and raised fears of late. Amid these plays, US Treasury bond yields struggle to extend the two-day rebound but S&P 500 Futures print mild gains at the latest. Having witnessed the initial reaction to Australia’s inflation data, AUD/USD pair traders should pay attention to the second-tier housing numbers for fresh impetus. However, more important will be the headlines surrounding the global banking sector's health and easing fears of more rate hikes by the top-tier central banks. Technical analysis The AUD/USD pair’s first daily closing beyond the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around the 0.6700 by the press time, directs buyers towards the convergence of the 50-day EMA and the previous weekly high surrounding 0.6755-60.  

Australia´s monthly Consumer Price Index (YoY), released by the RBA and republished by the Australian Bureau of Statistics has been released as follow

Australia´s monthly Consumer Price Index (YoY), released by the RBA and republished by the Australian Bureau of Statistics has been released as follows: Australian monthly CPI for February in at 6.8% (vs. expected 7.1%). AUD/USD update AUD/USD has spilled over to the downside and is piercing a near-term support structure below 0.6700: About the monthly Consumer Price Index (YoY) The monthly Consumer Price Index (YoY), released by the RBA and republished by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchasing power of AUD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). Note: This indicator started to be published in 2022 and it updates the price change for the last 12 months in Australia in a monthly basis, instead of the quarterly period of the main Australian CPI.  

The US Dollar Index (DXY) witnessed a sheer sell-off on Tuesday as United States banking jitters eased after the announcement of the acquisition of co

The US Dollar Index dropped to near 102.40 amid improved risk sentiment led by the easing US banking crisis.Federal Reserve won’t be required more strengthening of monetary tools to continue to weigh on US Inflation.Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (Q4) is seen steady at 4.3%.The US Dollar Index (DXY) witnessed a sheer sell-off on Tuesday as United States banking jitters eased after the announcement of the acquisition of collapsed Silicon Valley Bank’s (SVB) deposits and loans by First Citizens BancShares. Apart from that, improvement in market sentiment in hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) won’t be required more strengthening of monetary tools to continue to weigh on US Inflation. US banking shakedown by the collapse of three mid-size banks is forcing banks to remain more precautionary while disbursing advances to businesses and households. The debacle of US banks has resulted in the withdrawal of deposits by households amid the absence of wider blanket insurance on all deposits and dents confidence. This would lead to a decline in advances by small US banks or they may be required to tighten credit conditions further to avoid further casualties. Therefore, Fed chair Jerome Powell won’t be required to go heavy on interest rates as fewer advances would weigh heavily on persistent inflation in the US economy. Going forward, the release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) (Q4) data will remain in the spotlight. The economic data is expected to remain steady at 4.3%. USD Index technical analysis The USD Index has shifted its business below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (placed from February 02 low at 100.82 to March 08 high at 105.88) at 102.75 on a four-hour scale. The asset is expected to fully retrace its previous move ahead. The declining 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 103.07 is acting as a barrier for the USD Index. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the bearish range of 20.00-60.00 in which the 60.00 level has been considered a barrier for bulls. USD Index four-hour chart    

Gold price (XAU/USD) stays defensive around $1,972, after snapping a two-day losing streak the previous day, as bulls seek more clues amid a cautious

Gold price remains in a bearish consolidation mode, mildly bid of late.Traders recheck previous optimism surrounding banking environment and prod XAU/USD buyers.Mixed concerns about inflation, as well as central bank moves, also restrict the Gold price momentum.XAU/USD bears need validation from higher inflation, fresh rejection of banking crisis.Gold price (XAU/USD) stays defensive around $1,972, after snapping a two-day losing streak the previous day, as bulls seek more clues amid a cautious mood ahead of the top-tier data. Also challenging the XAU/USD price could be the mixed concerns about the market’s recent optimism that the banking turmoil is over. Furthermore, the month-end positioning and a light calendar are extra catalysts that restrict the Gold price moves of late. However, the economic line is about to be populated and hence can offer an active session to the commodity traders moving forward. Gold price grinds between banking and inflation concerns Gold price bounced off short-term key support as the US Dollar failed to cheer a rebound in the United States Treasury bond yields amid mixed sentiment and mostly upbeat US data. The reason could be linked to the market’s month-end positioning, as well as recent challenges to the market sentiment emanating from banking headlines. That said, the United States Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence rose to 104.2 in March, versus 101.0 expected and an upwardly revised prior figure of 103.4. Further, US Housing Price Index rose 0.2% MoM in January versus -0.6% expected and -0.1% prior while the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices matched 2.5% YoY forecasts for the said month compared to 4.5% previous readings. On the other hand, Wall Street closed with mild losses and the US Treasury bond yields managed to recover but the US Dollar Index (DXY) failed to improve as hawkish Fed bets eased. That said, CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests market players placing near 65% bets on another 0.25% rate hike for May 03 meeting. It should be noted that the US Dollar couldn’t cheer mixed US data and the market’s indecision about the banking crisis. That said, markets initially cheered the First Citizens BancShares' agreement to buy all of the failed lender Silicon Valley Bank's deposits and loans before highlighting the European Union and the United States policymaker's efforts to defend their respective banking sector. However, the much-debated $5.4 million Credit Default Swap (CDS) trade of Deutsche Bank weighs on the sentiment of late and allow the Gold buyers to take a breather. Furthermore, US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday that there was no need for blanket insurance on all bank deposits "at this moment in time," as reported by Reuters. On the same line, Jose Manuel Campa, Chairman of the European Banking Authority (EBA), warned in the German Handelsblatt newspaper, "The risks in the financial system remain very high." The policymaker also added that the rising interest rates continued to weigh on financial markets. Geopolitical fears also weigh on XAU/USD Apart from Gold the traders’ indecision, and geopolitical fears surrounding China, Russia and North Korea also weigh on the XAU/USD price. That said, the Sino-American tussles appear grim of late while US President Joe Biden’s concerns about Russia’s shifting of nuclear weapons to Belarus and North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un’s lauding of readiness to use nuclear powers raise the market’s fears of deadly war in case if theses catalysts move forward. The same could join the month-end positioning and a light calendar to challenge the Gold buyers. Market’s anxiety restricts Gold price moves Although multiple hurdles keep challenging the Gold buyers, apart from the US Dollar weakness, the lack of data and cautious mood ahead of this week’s top-tier inflation data from Germany, Europe and the US prod the XAU/USD traders. Adding strength to the market’s indecision could be the recent jump in the US inflation expectations, as per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED). That said the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) recently flashed a three-day and two-day winning streak respectively while posting the 2.31% and 2.34% level in that order. With this, the inflation precursors rose to the highest levels in a fortnight. To sum up, the Gold price remains indecisive despite the latest rebound and hence traders should wait for clear directions before taking any major positions. Gold price technical analysis Gold price reverses its pullback from a multi-month-old ascending resistance line while bouncing off the 10-DMA. However, the receding strength of the bullish signals on the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator tests the Gold buyers. Furthermore, a downside break of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) line, placed at 14, adds strength to the seller’s hopes of witnessing further declines in the XAU/USD. That said, the 10-DMA level surrounding $1,960 joins the early February tops surrounding $1,955 to restrict short-term XAU/USD downside. It’s worth noting, however, that a clear break of the $1,955 support could quickly drag the Gold price toward the $1,900 threshold. Alternatively, the stated resistance line from early August 2022, around a $2,000 psychological magnet, precedes the Year-To-Date (YTD) high of near $2,010 to act as the last defense of the Gold bears, a break of which could propel XAU/USD toward the previous yearly top of $2,070. Gold price: Daily chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

USD/JPY on Tuesday fell by -0.60% as the US Dollar came under pressure in mixed risk sentiment. The yen moved higher Tuesday after Japan's cabinet app

USD/JPY bears are in the market and take on key support. US Dollar bulls are still out there, eyeing a significant correction in due course. USD/JPY on Tuesday fell by -0.60% as the US Dollar came under pressure in mixed risk sentiment. The yen moved higher Tuesday after Japan's cabinet approved the use of 2.2 trillion yen of reserve funds from the fiscal 2022 budget for measures to cushion the impact of inflation. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading at 131.04 and between the Asian range of 130.75 and 131.07. The yen is also higher as Japanese companies repatriate yen ahead of their fiscal-year end at the end of March. The yen is the best performer despite the Bank of Japan seen on hold for the foreseeable future and banking sector tensions easing. The US Dollar, as measured by the DXY, is down for the second straight day and the break below 102.466 exposes the week’s low near 101.915.  ´´We believe that markets are overestimating the Fed’s capacity to ease and so the dollar should eventually recover when expectations are repriced,´´ analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman stated. ´´We expect the dollar rally to resume after this current bout of market turmoil fades and markets are one again able to focus on the fundamentals.´´ Looking to the Fed expectations, the next meeting is May 2-3 and WIRP suggests around 55% odds of 25 bp hike then.  After that, it’s all about the cuts, the analysts at BBH said. ´´Nearly two cuts by year-end are priced in.  While down from 4-5 cuts priced in during the height of the banking crisis earlier this month, even two cuts seems very unlikely.  In that regard, Powell said after the March 22 decision that Fed officials “just don’t see” any rate cuts this year´´ USD/JPY technical analysis The price could be on the verge of a forming a W-pattern, a bullish pattern in an uptrend, with eyes on the 133´s.  

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, is hovering near its two-week high around $73.90 in the early Asian session. The oil price has shown

Oil price is oscillating near its two-week high around $73.90.The USD Index has tumbled to near 102.40 as investors are split about Fed’s interest rate outlook.An upside break of the triangle chart pattern resulted in wider ticks and heavy volume.West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, is hovering near its two-week high around $73.90 in the early Asian session. The oil price has shown a solid run in the past two trading sessions amid weakness in the US Dollar and expectations of more sanctions on Russia. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has tumbled to near 102.40 as investors are split about the interest rate outlook of the Federal Reserve (Fed). As per the CME Fedwatch tool, more than 50% of investors are favoring a steady monetary policy by the Fed for its May meeting. The execution of bases for nuclear weapons in Belarus by Russia has mounted global tensions. The street is discussing that the decision from Russian President Vladimir Putin will attract more sanctions from G7 countries, which might hinder the oil supply further. On Wednesday, investors’ entire focus will remain on oil inventories data, which will be reported by the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA). As per the consensus, the US EIA will report a small build-up in oil stockpiles by 0.187 million barrels for the week ending March 24. WTI has witnessed a sharp upside after a breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern formed on an hourly scale. An upside break of the triangle chart pattern resulted in wider ticks and heavy volume. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $73.30 is providing support to the oil bulls. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which indicates that upside momentum is already active. Going forward, a decisive move above the immediate resistance of $74.00 will drive the oil price towards the horizontal resistance plotted from March 03 high at $76.00. A break above the latter would expose the asset to March 02 high at $78.65. On the flip side, a slippage below March 23 high at $71.39 would drag the asset toward March 17 high at $69.83 followed by March 24 low at $66.88. WTI hourly chart  

Australia’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February, scheduled for publishing on early Wednesday around 00:30 GMT, appears the crucial data fo

Overview Australia’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February, scheduled for publishing on early Wednesday around 00:30 GMT, appears the crucial data for the AUD/USD pair traders to watch. The reason could be linked to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) recent hesitance in defending the hawkish monetary policy, not to forget the downbeat Aussie Retail Sales and upbeat employment figures. Forecasts suggest that the headline CPI is expected to ease to 7.1% YoY versus 7.4%, confirming policymakers’ latest claims of easing inflation pressure due to higher rates. Ahead of the release, Analysts at the ANZ said, Our expectation for the monthly CPI of a 6.8% yearly increase would imply a monthly outcome of 0.3%, which while solidly above the pre-2022 February averages would represent a step down from the February 2022 result. A monthly CPI result weaker than our expectation would present a challenge to our view that the RBA will tighten again in April. On the other hand, National Australia Bank (NAB) said We expect the Monthly CPI Indicator to fall to 7.2% from 7.4% YoY, in line with consensus, but what the services subcomponents say about inflation trends will be as important as the headline given the limitations of the monthly indicator. TD Securities further elaborated the Aussie inflation impact while saying, February CPI print will grab attention after the Bank flagged it as a key data point for its April decision. Our dovish forecast (7.0% YoY) is due to the large seasonal decline from recreational services, partly offset by firm price increase rises for education and transport. We still retain a 25 bps hike for the April meeting as inflation is still far above the RBA's inflation target. How could AUD/USD react to the news? AUD/USD retreats from intraday high to 0.6705 ahead of the day, probing the two-day uptrend, while portraying the pre-data anxiety. Adding strength to the pair’s pullback moves could be the looming financial market check in Australia and the market’s indecision about the much-debated $5.4 million Credit Default Swap (CDS) trade of Deutsche Bank. However, overall optimism about overcoming the banking crisis keeps the Aussie pair buyers hopeful. Even so, Tuesday’s downbeat Australia Retail Sales and the previously cautious commentary from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials keep the sellers on the lookout for a softer Australia Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) below the 7.2% YoY forecast. In that case, the RBA’s policy pivot could gain the market’s attention and weigh on the AUD/USD price. Alternatively, a positive surprise may join the risk-on mood and broader USD weakness to underpin the bullish bias surrounding the AUD/USD pair. Technically, A two-week-old bullish channel keeps AUD/USD buyers hopeful unless the quote breaks the 0.6765-6645 zone. Key notes AUD/USD bulls attack 0.6700 with eyes on Australia inflation data, banking news AUD/USD Forecast: Looking bullish while above 0.6645, tough resistance ahead About Aussie Consumer Price Index The quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has a significant impact on the market and the AUD valuation. The gauge is closely watched by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in order to achieve its inflation mandate, which has major monetary policy implications. Rising consumer prices tend to be AUD bullish, as the RBA could hike interest rates to maintain its inflation target. The data is released nearly 25 days after the quarter ends.

Markets remain dicey during early Wednesday as traders await more clues to overcome the mixed sentiment backed by hopes of overcoming the banking cris

Markets remain dicey during early Wednesday as traders await more clues to overcome the mixed sentiment backed by hopes of overcoming the banking crisis and indecision about the global central banks’ next moves amid the light calendar. However, the cautious optimism and recently firmer US data put a bit under the US inflation expectations, as per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED). The same underpins the US Treasury bond yields and allows the Fed bets to remain firmer. That said, the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields grind higher after rising in the last two consecutive days while the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests market players placing near 65% bets on another 0.25% rate hike for May 03 meeting. It should be noted that the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) recently flashed a three-day and two-day winning streak respectively while posting the 2.31% and 2.34% level in that order. With this, the inflation precursors rose to the highest levels in a fortnight. Given the latest run-up in inflation expectations, as well as the rebound in the US Treasury bond yields, the US Dollar should witness a corrective bound. However, it all depends upon Friday’s key inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, also known as the Fed’s preferred inflation index. Also read: Forex Today: Dollar keeps moving south as markets settle down

AUD/NZD portrays the pre-data anxiety by making rounds to 1.0700 during early Wednesday, waiting for Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI). In addition t

AUD/NZD struggles for clear directions after posting a trend-changing candlestick.Downbeat expectations from Australia Monthly CPI, 21-DMA hurdle challenge recovery moves.Nearly four-month-old horizontal support appears a tough nut to crack for the bears.AUD/NZD portrays the pre-data anxiety by making rounds to 1.0700 during early Wednesday, waiting for Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI). In addition to the cautious mood ahead of the key Aussie data, mixed technical signals also test the pair traders. That said, the quote’s sustained bounces off a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since early December 2022 join bullish MACD signals to tease buyers. However, the 21-DMA and the previous day’s Doji candlestick challenge the upside momentum. Furthermore, the steadily rising RSI (14) adds strength to the recovery. It should be noted that a clear break of the 21-DMA hurdle, around 1.0760 by the press time, could defy the bearish candlestick and can propel the price towards the previous weekly top of 1.0805. On the contrary, a downside break of the 1.0660-75 zone won’t hesitate to revisit the late December lows near 1.0625. It’s worth observing that the AUD/NZD pair’s upside past 1.0805 appears difficult while the weakness below 1.0625 has a comparatively smoother road to accepting bears. As a result, the AUD/NZD pair is likely to decline further if backed by the downbeat Aussie inflation data, expected 7.2% YoY for February versus 7.4% prior. Also read: AUD/USD bulls attack 0.6700 with eyes on Australia inflation data, banking news AUD/NZD: Daily chart Trend: Further downside expected  

The USD/CHF pair has recovered after a minor correction below 0.9200 in the early Tokyo session. The Swiss Franc asset has shown a recovery despite a

USD/CHF has shown a recovery above 0.9200 despite the further correction in the US Dollar.The reputation of the Swiss Franc as a safe-haven has been significantly dented after the Credit Suisse collapse.It seems that stubborn US inflation would be handled by tight credit conditions from US banks ahead.The USD/CHF pair has recovered after a minor correction below 0.9200 in the early Tokyo session. The Swiss Franc asset has shown a recovery despite a firm correction in the US Dollar Index (DXY). The demise of Credit Suisse has dented the reputation of the Swiss Franc as a safe-haven. The Swiss Franc used to be the first choice of investors if the US Dollar went through turbulent times. US banking shakedown resulted in a sheer demand for the Japanese Yen and the Gold while Swiss Franc weakened further against the mighty US Dollar after the Credit Suisse collapse. Money managers ditched the Swiss franc at the fastest rate in two years last week in the run-up to the dramatic takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS, as reported by Reuters. Meanwhile, correction in the USD Index has extended to near 102.40 as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to take the route of steady monetary policy in times when the US banking system is going through major headwinds. While stubborn inflation would be handled by tight credit conditions from US banks. Disbursement of advances to households and businesses will go through more filters as banks are required to remain precautions in times of higher interest obligations. Going forward, the release of the Quarterly Bulletin (Q1) by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be keenly watched. The Quarterly Bulletin will be filled with monetary policy report and business cycle trends in the Swiss region. Inflationary pressures in the Swiss region are beyond the control of the SNB. And, SNB Chairman Thomas J. Jordan has already confirmed more rates head to contain higher Consumer Price Index (CPI).  

AUD/JPY edges down as the Asian session begins, but Tuesday’s gains opened the door for further upside in the pair. However, the AUD/JPY is still down

AUD/JPYretrats from daily highs, on risk-off impulse.AUD/JPY correction fails to shake bearish bias, resistance at 20-day EMA.AUD/JPY is on the rise as the 4-hour chart shows bullish momentumAUD/JPY edges down as the Asian session begins, but Tuesday’s gains opened the door for further upside in the pair. However, the AUD/JPY is still downward pressured, but resistance at the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 88.77 could be challenged. At the time of writing, the AUD/JPY is trading at 87.70.AUD/JPY Price actionAfter printing back-to-back bullish candles, the AUD/JPY corrected upwards, yet a bearish bias remains. To change the pair’s preference to neutral, AUD/JPY buyers must conquer the 20-day EMA at 88.77 before reclaiming 89.00. Once achieved, the next resistance would be the 50-day EMA at 89.99, around 90.00. Conversely, the AUD/JPY would continue its downtrend if the pair stumbles below the March 28 low of 87.15, which could open the door for further losses. In the near term, the AUD/JPY 4-hour chart portrays the pair’s testing of the 50-EMA at 87.91. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) in bullish territory favors upside price action, the same as the Rate of Change (RoC). Therefore, the AUD/JPY path of least resistance is upwards. The AUD/JPY first resistance would be the confluence of the R1 pivot and the 88.00 figure. A breach of the latter will expose the R2 pivot at 88.34 before testing the 100-EMA at 88.71. On the flip side, the AUD/JPY first support would be the daily pivot at 87.61, followed by the 20-EMA At 87.49, ahead of testing the S1 pivot at 87.34.AUD/JPY 4-hour chart chartAUD/JPY Technical levels 

United Kingdom BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) up to 8.9% in February from previous 8.4%

Australia bond markets continue witnessing the week-start buying as traders brace for the key Aussie Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for Febru

Australian Treasury bond yields remain firmer two-day rebound from the lowest levels since August 2022.Downbeat Aussie Retail Sales contrast, review of how global banking crisis affects Australia prods bond buyers.Australia's Monthly CPI is expected to ease to 7.2% YoY in February, suggesting more hardships for RBA hawks.Australia bond markets continue witnessing the week-start buying as traders brace for the key Aussie Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February on early Wednesday. That said, the benchmark 10-year Australia Treasury bond yields seesaw around 3.53% after posting a two-day recovery from the lowest levels since August 2022, marked on the last Friday. On the same line, the two-year counterpart pokes the 3.10% level during its third consecutive day of rebound. While tracing the clues of the latest recovery in the Aussie bond coupons the looming fears of a financial market check in Australia and downbeat Retail Sales gain major attention. However, the macro risk-on mood supersedes the woes amid the month-end positioning. Talking about the Aussie data, the seasonally adjusted Retail Sales growth for February came in at 0.2% versus 0.4% market forecasts and 1.9% prior. Alternatively, news that Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers will convene a meeting of the country's top financial regulators to check how the latest volatility in global financial markets could affect the country, an official in the treasurer's office said on Tuesday per Reuters, prod the optimism. On the same line could be the much-debated $5.4 million Credit Default Swap (CDS) trade of Deutsche Bank. Moving on, Aussie bond traders will keep their eyes on the Monthly CPI for February, expected 7.2% YoY versus 7.4% prior, as downbeat Retail Sales and recently softer talks of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) suggest a pause in the rate hike trajectory. Also read: AUD/USD bulls attack 0.6700 with eyes on Australia inflation data, banking news

USD/CAD bears struggle to keep the reins during early Wednesday as the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) probes the Loonie pair’s two-day downtr

USD/CAD remains depressed around fortnight low after two-day downtrend.Bears remain hopeful as Loonie pair’s U-turn from six-month-old horizontal resistance gains support from downbeat oscillators.Ascending trend line from June 2022 gains bear’s attention.Buyers need validation from 1.3865 to retake control.USD/CAD bears struggle to keep the reins during early Wednesday as the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) probes the Loonie pair’s two-day downtrend near 1.3600 at the latest. It’s worth noting that the quote’s failure to cross the key horizontal resistance surrounding 1.3845-65, established since September 2022, joins the bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI (14), not oversold, to keep the Loonie pair sellers hopeful. That said, a downside break of the immediate 50-EMA support near 1.3590 could quickly drag the USD/CAD price towards an ascending support line from early June 2022, around 1.3450. However, the RSI is declining below the 50 level and suggests weaker momentum supporting the quote’s further downside. Hence, the Loonie pair may reverse from the stated key support line, if not then the 200-EMA level surrounding 1.3370 can act as the last defense of the USD/CAD buyers. Alternatively, recovery moves may initially aim for the last December’s peak of around 1.3700 ahead of challenging the previous weekly high of near 1.3805. Above all, the USD/CAD remains on the bear’s radar unless crossing the aforementioned six-month-old horizontal resistance area between 1.3845 and 1.3865. USD/CAD: Daily chart Trend: Further downside expected  

The GBP/USD pair is demonstrating a back-and-forth action below 1.2350 in the early Asian session. The Cable has turned sideways after a bumper rally

GBP/USD is oscillating below 1.2350 as expectations of a steady policy by the Fed have improved risk sentiment.S&P500 futures remained choppy on Tuesday despite the widening US Goods Trade Deficit.More rates would be welcomed by the BoE if there would be evidence of persistent inflation. The GBP/USD pair is demonstrating a back-and-forth action below 1.2350 in the early Asian session. The Cable has turned sideways after a bumper rally and is expected to stretch its upside journey further amid improved sentiment for risk-sensitive assets. The major has been underpinned as the market participants are not expecting bold decisions on interest rates from the Federal Reserve (Fed) ahead. S&P500 futures remained choppy on Tuesday despite the widening United States Goods Trade Deficit (Feb). Exports of goods witnessed a decline led by weak outgo of motor vehicles and parts along with consumer goods and capital goods, as reported by Reuters. Further imports of goods also slipped by 2.3%. The US Dollar index (DXY) corrected firmly to near 102.40 as investors anticipate continuous pressure on US Consumer Price Index (CPI) through tight credit conditions from US banks amid a turbulent environment, which is prone to further financial instability. Going forward, the release of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) data will remain in focus. Tuesday’s annualized GDP is expected to remain steady at 2.7%. Apart from that, quarterly core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) (Q4) might also remain anchored at 4.3%. On the United Kingdom front, the Pound Sterling remained solid as Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey has remained doors open for further policy-tightening after hiking rates by 25 basis points (bps) last week to 4.25%. More rates would be welcomed by the BoE if there would be evidence of persistent inflation. Meanwhile, overall shop inflation in the UK economy has climbed to 8.9% from the prior release of 8.4%, the highest reading in 18 years as reported by the British Retail Consortium (BRC). Rising food inflation has been a major catalyst behind stubborn UK shop inflation. Analysts at Bank of America (BoA) are of the view that the BoE won’t hike rates further and will keep rates steady until 2024.  

USD/JPY pares some of Monday’s gains and drops below the 131.00 figure after Wall Street closed with losses. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is tr

USD/JPY gives up some of Monday’s gains as investors brace for safety.The USD/JPY needs to tumble below 130.49 for a bearish continuation.Conversely, a bullish scenario is likely if the USD/JPY climbs toward 131.76. USD/JPY pares some of Monday’s gains and drops below the 131.00 figure after Wall Street closed with losses. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 130.91, registering minuscule gains as the Asian session begins.USD/JPY Price actionThe USD/JPY is neutral to downward biased, and Tuesday’s close below 131.00 could exacerbate a fall toward the last week’s lows of 129.64. For a bearish continuation, the USD/JPY needs to tumble below 130.49, which could open the door toward 130.00, ahead of 129.64. Contrarily, a bullish scenario is likely if the USD/JPY climbs toward 131.76. Hence. The USD/JPY first resistance would be 132.00, followed by 133.00. Once cleared, the 50-day EMA would be tested at 133.27, followed by the 200-day EMA at 133.81. Short term, the USD/JPY 4-hour chart is consolidating after Tuesday’s low of 130.40. additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifted flat, in bearish territory, while the Rate of  Change (RoC) is almost unchanged. Therefore, the USD/JPY might continue to be range-bound before resuming upwards/downwards. If the USD/JPY breaks above the 20-EMA at 131.00, that will open the door for further upside. The next resistance would be the R1 daily pivot point at 131.44, followed by the 50-EMA at 131.67, ahead of challenging 132.00. On the other hand, the USD/JPY first support would be the S1 daily pivot at 130.29, followed by 130.00, ahead of testing the YTD low at 129.64.USD/JPY 4-hour chartUSD/JPY Technical levels 

AUD/USD pokes 0.6700 mark as bulls await the key Australia inflation data on early Wednesday, after a two-day uptrend. It’s worth noting that the mark

AUD/USD grinds higher after rising the most in two weeks.Softer Australia Retail Sales fail to push back buyers amid broadly softer US Dollar, risk-on mood.Receding fears of banking crisis, mixed US data weigh on greenback.Softer Australia Monthly CPI can challenge RBA’s rate hike and probe the Aussie pair buyers.AUD/USD pokes 0.6700 mark as bulls await the key Australia inflation data on early Wednesday, after a two-day uptrend. It’s worth noting that the market’s reassessments of the baking risk and the broad US Dollar weakness allowed the Aussie pair to ignore downbeat Australia Retail Sales while posting the biggest daily gain in two weeks the previous day. That said, Australia’s seasonally adjusted Retail Sales growth for February came in at 0.2% versus 0.4% market forecasts and 1.9% prior. On the other hand, the US Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence rose to 104.2 in March, versus 101.0 expected and an upwardly revised prior figure of 103.4. Further, US Housing Price Index rose 0.2% MoM in January versus -0.6% expected and -0.1% prior while the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices matched 2.5% YoY forecasts for the said month compared to 4.5% previous readings. It’s worth noting, however, that Wall Street closed with mild losses and the US Treasury bond yields managed to recover but the US Dollar Index (DXY) failed to improve as hawkish Fed bets ease. That said, CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests market players placing near 65% bets on another 0.25% rate hike for May 03 meeting. Talking about the risks, the US and EU policymakers’ rush to defend respective banks supersede the criticism by some of their own diplomats as well as the much-debated $5.4 million Credit Default Swap (CDS) trade of Deutsche Bank. At home, Australia’s Assistant Treasurer and Minister for Financial Services Stephen Jones tried to restore the market sentiment in the Aussie banks early Tuesday while speaking on local radio. The policymaker said, “Australia’s banking system is resilient,” while also adding that Australia's financial system is well-equipped to deal with challenges in the global economy. In an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said that there was no need for blanket insurance on all bank deposits "at this moment in time," as reported by Reuters. On the same line, Jose Manuel Campa, Chairman of the European Banking Authority (EBA), warned in the German Handelsblatt newspaper, "The risks in the financial system remain very high." The policymaker also added that the rising interest rates continued to weigh on financial markets. Moving on, the firmer sentiment may help the AUD/USD pair grind higher ahead of Australia’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), expected 7.2% YoY versus 7.4% prior, but a likely to disappointment from the data can weigh on the Aussie pair. Technical analysis A two-week-old bullish channel keeps AUD/USD buyers hopeful unless the quote drops below the 0.6645 support.  

The EUR/USD pair has stretched its north-side journey to near the critical resistance of 1.0850 in the early Asian session. The absence of exhaustion

EUR/USD has refreshed its four-day high near 1.0850 amid rising expectations for an unchanged Fed policy.Upbeat US Consumer Confidence data failed to provide support to the USD Index.The annual German HICP will soften firmly to 7.5% from the former release of 9.3%.The EUR/USD pair has stretched its north-side journey to near the critical resistance of 1.0850 in the early Asian session. The absence of exhaustion signals indicates that the major currency pair is gathering strength to add more gains. Improved market sentiment after easing United States banking jitters and rising expectations for a steady monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed) led to a solid rally in the shared currency pair. S&P500 futures remained choppy on Tuesday amid the absence of potential triggers, portraying a quiet market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY) corrected further to near 102.40 as the Fed would look to keep rates unchanged. Also, US inflation would remain under pressure due to tight credit conditions by US banks. The demand for US government bonds remained weak as the absence of bad news about US banking was considered good news by the market participants. This led to a further rise in 10-year US Treasury yields to 3.57%. Upbeat US Consumer Confidence data failed to provide support to the USD Index. The sentiment data improved to 104.2 from the former release of 103.4. The economic data rose after a three-month losing trend despite potential fears of a banking fiasco and higher rates by the Fed, which are denting households’ sentiment as they are struggling to offset the impact of inflated prices of goods and services. On the Eurozone front, the release of the German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data will be of significant importance. As per the projections, the annual German HICP will soften firmly to 7.5% from the former release of 9.3%. An expected decline in German inflation would relieve some pressure from the European Central Bank (ECB).  

Gold price was higher on Tuesday following two sessions of declines with support from a weaker US Dollar even as bond yields climbed. Wall Street's ma

Gold price is moving in on key resistance. Federal Reserve prospects are weighing on sentiment. Gold price was higher on Tuesday following two sessions of declines with support from a weaker US Dollar even as bond yields climbed.  Wall Street's major indexes lost ground as investors grew concerned again that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates higher for longer as fears of further banking sector failures faded. At the time of writing, the Gold price is trading at $1,973 and has traveled between a low of $1,949 and $1,975.  The US Dollar was losing ground vs. a number of currencies for a second straight day as easing worries about the banking system revived investors' appetite for riskier currencies. There have been no new signs of bank failures over the weekend which is supporting risk appetite and weighing on the US Dollar. Risk appetite improved due to First Citizens BancShares' agreement to buy all of the failed lender Silicon Valley Bank's deposits and loans. US regulators said on Monday they would backstop a deal for regional lender First Citizens BancShares to acquire failed Silicon Valley Bank, triggering an estimated $20 billion hit to a government-run insurance fund. First Citizens shares jumped more than 53% during Monday trading on Wall Street. US lawmakers quizzed top US bank regulators on Tuesday during testimony in Washington D.C. Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve's top bank regulator told a Senate panel that Silicon Valley Bank did a "terrible" job of managing risk before its collapse as he fended off criticism from lawmakers who blamed bank watchdogs for missing warning signs. All eyes back on the Federal Reserve While the testimony suggested that the bank's problems may be isolated, investors' focus moved back to inflation risks and the implications of higher interest rates from the Fed. ´´The next FOMC meeting is May 2-3 and WIRP suggests around 55% odds of 25 bp hike then.  After that, it’s all about the cuts.  Nearly two cuts by year-end are priced in.  While down from 4-5 cuts priced in during the height of the banking crisis earlier this month, even two cuts seem very unlikely.  In that regard, Jerome Powell said after the March 22 decision that Fed officials “just don’t see” any rate cuts this year,´´ analysts at Brown Brothers said.  Meanwhile, US Treasuries benchmark 10-year yields moved higher on Tuesday but pared gains after the Treasury Department saw solid demand for an auction of five-year notes. The benchmark 10-year notes were higher by 3.6 basis points to 3.564%, from 3.528% late on Monday. Gold technical analysis Gold price is testing the $1,980s resistance but the W-formation is a bearish pattern and this could see a pull on the Gold price. If the bears break the lows of the W, then the Gold price would be expected to head to the prior support near the $1,930s.

South Korea Consumer Sentiment Index above forecasts (90.3) in March: Actual (92)

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