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Forex News Timeline

Friday, November 22, 2019

Statistics Canada will publish the monthly retail sales report for September later this Friday at 13:30 GMT. Consensus estimates point to a modest 0.1

Canadian retail sales overview Statistics Canada will publish the monthly retail sales report for September later this Friday at 13:30 GMT. Consensus estimates point to a modest 0.1% decline for the third consecutive month and a tepid 0.1% growth in core sales (excluding automobiles), up from the previous month's dismal reading of -0.2%.
 
As analysts at TD Securities explained: “Motor vehicles will weigh on the headline print after a pullback in auto sales, leaving the ex-autos measure down just 0.1%, while volumes should see a more substantial decline owing to higher consumer goods prices. This would still leave retail volumes up ~1% (annualized) for Q3, a slight pickup from the 0.4% increase in Q2 which contributed to the weakest quarter of household consumption since 2012.” How could it affect USD/CAD? Ahead of the key release, the USD/CAD pair added to the previous session's modest pullback from multi-week tops and was seen hovering around the very important 200-day SMA. A surprisingly stronger reading might be enough to prompt some follow-through long-unwinding trade and force the pair to extend the overnight rejection slide from 5-1/2-month-old descending trend-line resistance. The downward trajectory then is likely to accelerate further towards mid-1.3200s before the pair eventually aims to retest weekly lows support near the 1.3200-1.3190 region.
 
Alternatively, a weaker reading might provide some temporary boost to the major, through the mentioned trend-line resistance, currently near the 1.3320 region, might continue to cap the upside. However, a sustained breakthrough might prompt some aggressive short-covering move and accelerate the move up towards October monthly swing highs – near mid-1.3300s, en-route the next major hurdle near the 1.3380-85 region and the 1.3400 round-figure mark. Key Notes    •  USD/CAD: Sellers cheer WTI strength, eyes on Canadian Retail Sales/trade headlines
 
   •  USD/CAD stays directionless below 1.3300 ahead of key data releases
 
   •  USD/CAD Intraday: 1.3235 expected About Canadian retail sales The Retail Sales released by Statistics Canada is a monthly data that shows all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes. The retail sales index is often taken as an indicator of consumer confidence. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Generally speaking, the positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the CAD.

The bid tone around the Japanese yen continues to weigh on EUR/JPY, dragging it to the 119.90 region earlier in the day, where some support appears to

EUR/JPY met daily support near 119.90.US-China trade concerns fuel the demand for the yen.US Consumer Sentiment next of relevance in the calendar.The bid tone around the Japanese yen continues to weigh on EUR/JPY, dragging it to the 119.90 region earlier in the day, where some support appears to have turned up. EUR/JPY keeps focused on trade jitters The cross is down for the second consecutive session at the end of the week, coming under renewed downside pressure in response to the improved sentiment in the safe-haven space. In fact, the US-China trade scenario has deteriorated as of late along with rising social unrest in Hong Kong, all morphing into extra upside pressure in the Japanese yen and global bonds. Moving forward, the final print of the November Consumer Sentiment is due later in the NA session along with advanced Manufacturing and Services PMIs measured by Markit. Earlier in the session, flash Manufacturing PMIs in core Euroland have surprised to the upside for the month of November despite another downtick in the services sector, noting some contagion of the generalized slowdown. EUR/JPY relevant levels At the moment the cross is retreating 0.05% at 120.04 and a breach of 119.53 (55-day SMA) would expose 119.24 (monthly low Nov.14) and finally 117.07 (monthly low Oct.7). On the flip side, the next up barrier emerges at 120.68 (high Nov.18) seconded by 121.47 (monthly high Oct.31) and then 121.74 (200-day SMA).

The GBP/USD pair held on to its weaker tone through the mid-European session on Friday, albeit has managed to rebound around 20 pips from weekly lows

Disappointing UK PMI prints for November drags the pair below the 1.2900 handle.The near-term technical set-up seems to have shifted in favour of bearish traders.The GBP/USD pair held on to its weaker tone through the mid-European session on Friday, albeit has managed to rebound around 20 pips from weekly lows and is currently hovering around the 1.2880-85 region.
 
A sustained break below the 1.2900 round-figure mark, coinciding with 200-hour SMA, was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders following the release of weaker-than-expected flash UK PMI prints for November.
 
Against the backdrop of the pair’s repeated failure ahead of the key 1.30 psychological mark, acceptance below the mentioned handle now support prospects for a further near-term depreciating move.
 
Hence, some follow-through weakness, back towards challenging the 1.2800 handle, now looks a distinct possibility, albeit slightly oversold conditions on the hourly chart warrant some caution for bearish traders.
 
On the flip side, any attempted recovery beyond the 1.2900 support breakpoint might now confront some fresh supply near the 1.2925-30 region, above which the pair is likely to aim back towards the 1.30 handle. GBP/USD 1-hourly chart  

Mexico 1st half-month Inflation above expectations (0.65%) in October: Actual (0.68%)

Brazil Mid-month Inflation below forecasts (0.16%) in November: Actual (0.14%)

Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation registered at 0.16%, below expectations (0.19%) in October

The NZD/USD pair is having a difficult time making a decisive move despite the modest recovery witnessed on Friday. As of writing, the pair is trading

Chinese President Xi says he is not afraid of a trade war with US.US could reportedly delay December tariff hike if there is no deal.US Dollar Index moves sideways near 98 ahead of PMI data.The NZD/USD pair is having a difficult time making a decisive move despite the modest recovery witnessed on Friday. As of writing, the pair is trading at 0.6417, adding 0.25% on a daily basis. Investors continue to assess US-China trade developments The lack of clarity on the completion of phase one of the United States (US)-China trade deal ahead of the scheduled tariff hikes on December 15th seems to be forcing investors to refrain from making large bets.  The South China Morning Post (SCMP) on Thursday claimed that the White House could delay the tariff increase on Chinese imports even if a deal is not finalized but there is good progress in the next round of face-to-face talks. During the Asian trading hours on Friday, Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated that they want to work out phase one fo the trade deal but added that he is not afraid of a trade war with the US. "When necessary we will fight back, but we have been working actively to try to not have a trade war," Xi added. In the meantime, the US Dollar Index is moving sideways near the 98 mark, causing the pair to remain stuck in its daily range. During the American session, the IHS Markit will publish the preliminary Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for November. Markets are likely to react to a big deviation in the Manufacturing PMI reading, which is expected to edge up to 51.5 from 51.3 in October.  Technical levels to consider  

EUR/USD continues to fade the initial optimism and is now under pressure after being rejected from weekly highs in the boundaries of the 1.11 mark on

EUR/USD’s weekly advance lost traction in the vicinity of the 1.1100 handle.Inability of the pair to overcome recent tops could spark some correction.EUR/USD continues to fade the initial optimism and is now under pressure after being rejected from weekly highs in the boundaries of the 1.11 mark on Thursday. Weekly highs are also reinforced by the 100-day SMA, today at 1.1086. Ideally, spot should surpass this area in the short-term horizon in order to open the door for extra gains. On the opposite side, if sellers regain the upper hand, another visit to the key support near 1.1040 should return to the radar. A breakdown of this important area of contention, should reassert the downside bias.  

The key target of the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy is inflation, noted the ECB Governing Council member and Slovak central bank chief

The key target of the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy is inflation, noted the ECB Governing Council member and Slovak central bank chief Peter Kazimir on Friday. "Its side effect is the monetary policy that supports growth and that is not going to change in coming months," Kazimir added.  The EUR/USD pair largely ignored these remarks and was last seen trading at 1.1058, where it was virtually unchanged on a daily basis. Commenting on the ECB's policy review, "would be normal to wait while changes on board and council are completed," Kazimir said. "Based on meetings with business representatives, I am cautiously optimistic on economic outlook but will not predict hard data."

USD/JPY is seen grinding lower in the next weeks, with the next target at the 108.00 handle, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour vie

USD/JPY is seen grinding lower in the next weeks, with the next target at the 108.00 handle, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “USD dipped to 108.27 before rebounding quickly to touch 108.69. The registered range was close to our expected range of 108.30/108.70. Momentum indicators are turning neutral and USD could continue to trade sideways, likely between 108.30 and 108.75”. Next 1-3 weeks: “When USD dropped to 108.23 last Thursday, we ‘upgraded’ the downside risk and indicated on Friday (15 Nov, spot at 108.50) that USD is “expected to trade with a downward bias towards 108.00”. While USD held above 108.23 and traded mostly sideways since then, we continue to the view that the risk is on the downside. That said, after the price action over the past few days, 108.00 may not come into the picture so soon. On the upside, only a break of 109.00 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 109.15) would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased”.

India FX Reserves, USD increased to $448.25B in November 11 from previous $447.81B

India Bank Loan Growth dipped from previous 8.9% to 8.1% in November 4

The index is now navigating the area of weekly highs at/around the key 98.00 handle. The gradual recovery from recent lows is also testing the 10-day

The move up in DXY is once again flirting with the 98.00 region.Immediately above aligns the monthly peaks in the mid-98.00s.The index is now navigating the area of weekly highs at/around the key 98.00 handle. The gradual recovery from recent lows is also testing the 10-day and 100-day SMAs just above 98.00 the figure. Immediately to the upside now emerges the 55-day at 98.23. Further up is located the 98.50 region, or monthly highs. A sustainable break of this hurdle should pave the way for a move to 99.00 and beyond. In the meantime, as long as the 200-day SMA at 97.57 holds the downside, the constructive outlook on DXY is seen unchanged.  

USD/JPY is seen grinding lower in the next weeks, with the next target at the 108.00 handle, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour vie

USD/JPY is seen grinding lower in the next weeks, with the next target at the 108.00 handle, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “USD dipped to 108.27 before rebounding quickly to touch 108.69. The registered range was close to our expected range of 108.30/108.70. Momentum indicators are turning neutral and USD could continue to trade sideways, likely between 108.30 and 108.75”. Next 1-3 weeks: “When USD dropped to 108.23 last Thursday, we ‘upgraded’ the downside risk and indicated on Friday (15 Nov, spot at 108.50) that USD is “expected to trade with a downward bias towards 108.00”. While USD held above 108.23 and traded mostly sideways since then, we continue to the view that the risk is on the downside. That said, after the price action over the past few days, 108.00 may not come into the picture so soon. On the upside, only a break of 109.00 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 109.15) would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased”.

According to FX Strategists at UOB Group, the probability of a move higher in Cable appears somewhat mitigated for the time being. Key Quotes 24-hour

According to FX Strategists at UOB Group, the probability of a move higher in Cable appears somewhat mitigated for the time being. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We expected GBP to trade sideways within a 1.2900/1.2950 range yesterday. The subsequent price action wherein GBP rose to 1.2970 before plummeting back down to 1.2893 came as a surprise. The rapid swing has resulted in a mixed outlook. From here, GBP could continue to trade in a choppy manner and within a relatively broad range of 1.2875/1.2960”. Next 1-3 weeks: “Our ‘strong support’ level at 1.2875 is still intact as GBP recovered after touching 1.2888 and ended the day little changed in NY at 1.2923 (-0.02%). As highlighted yesterday (20 Nov, spot at 1.2925), only a break of 1.2875 would indicate the current mild upward pressure has eased. Until then, there is still chance for GBP to move towards last month’s peak at 1.3012. That said, after the price action over the past couple of days, the probability for such a scenario has decreased. Looking forward, if GBP were to move below 1.2875, it could trade sideways for a period”.

In view of Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, occasional bullish attempts in the European cross are seen meeting initial h

In view of Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, occasional bullish attempts in the European cross are seen meeting initial hurdle at 0.8635 ahead of 0.8802. Key Quotes “EUR/GBP has another 13 count on the daily chart PLUS divergence of the daily RSI and I think this will bounce near term. Rallies will find a minor downtrend at .8635 ahead of the 3 month downtrend at .8802. Overhead resistance is reinforced by .8786 the mid-September low”. “Beyond this there is scope for the slide to extend to the .8465 2019 low. We note the TD support at .8485 and we look for the market to hold here”.

EUR/JPY remains within a multi-session consolidative theme and seems to be tracking the performance of the 21-day SMA, today at 120.43. The inability

EUR/JPY remains sidelined so far this week below the 121.00 handle.US-China trade effervescence keeps weighing on the cross.EUR/JPY remains within a multi-session consolidative theme and seems to be tracking the performance of the 21-day SMA, today at 120.43. The inability of the cross to break above the current consolidation in the short-term carries the potential to spark a move lower with the immediate target at the 119.53/24 band, where coincide the 100-day and 55-day SMAs as well as monthly lows. In order to alleviate the immediate downside pressure, the cross needs to overcome weekly highs around 120.70. Further up aligns the critical resistance in the 121.50 region.  

The USD/CAD pair failed to hold above the 1.3300 mark on Thursday as rising crude oil prices and Bank of Canada Governor Poloz's hawkish remarks allow

WTI consolidates 2-day rally, trades above $58 on Friday.US Dollar Index stays calm near 98 following Thursday's rebound.Coming up: Retail Sales data from Canada and Markit PMI reports from US.The USD/CAD pair failed to hold above the 1.3300 mark on Thursday as rising crude oil prices and Bank of Canada Governor Poloz's hawkish remarks allowed the loonie to gather strength against its rivals. With investors moving to the sidelines ahead of macroeconomic data releases from Canada and the United States (US) later in the day, the pair is staying flat on the day near the 1.3280 handle. Hopes of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) extending the production cuts for six more months at the group's December meeting provided a boost to crude oil prices in the second half of the week. The barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) advanced to its highest level in nearly two months at $58.65 on Thursday before going into a consolidation phase. As of writing, the WTI was virtually unchanged on the day at $58.35. USD stays quiet ahead of mid-tier data On the other hand, the better-than-expected Existing Hom Sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index data from the US on Thursday helped the US Dollar Index to recover to the 98 area and kept the pair's losses limited. Later in the day, the preliminary Markit Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reports and the University of Michigan' final version of its Consumer Sentiment Survey for November will be released from the US. Additionally, the Retail Sales data from Canada will be looked upon for fresh impetus.  Technical levels to watch for  

USD/INR: Bears continue to guard the 71.90 barrier ahead of US data The Indian rupee rebounded sharply from daily lows of 71.87 against its American

USD/INR logs in four-day losing streak amid a ray of optimism from India USD/INR is weakening for the fourth day in a row as recent government measures from India, coupled with fresh trade/investment news, keep the Asian currency on the front foot. With this, the price drops to 71.70 while heading into the European session on Friday. In contrast to the trade differences between the United States (US) and China, the US-India trade relations are likely to improve as both parties have recently agreed on equitable market access for a trade deal in recent days. Additionally, increased investments from global bond champions like Advent international, coupled with the hope for further government measures, as it did in recent days, favor the INR. Read more... USD/INR Technical Analysis   USD/INR: Bears continue to guard the 71.90 barrier ahead of US data The Indian rupee rebounded sharply from daily lows of 71.87 against its American counterpart in the European session, as the USD/INR cross now flirts with daily lows near 71.73 regions.   The renewed buying interest seen in the rupee can be mainly attributed to the new foreign trade policy announced by the Indian Foreign Minister Goyal, who said that the new policy will be replaced before end-March 2020. Read more... USD/INR Levels to watch

The USD/JPY pair traded with a mild negative bias through the early European session on Friday, albeit remained confined well within a three-day-old t

Remains confined in a three-day-old trading range around mid-108.00s.The set-up favours further near-term fall, albeit warrant some caution.The USD/JPY pair traded with a mild negative bias through the early European session on Friday, albeit remained confined well within a three-day-old trading range around mid-108.00s.
 
Given that the pair has repeatedly failed to find acceptance above the very important 200-day SMA, the bias seems tilted in favour of bearish traders and support prospects for further declines.
 
The near-term negative outlook is further reinforced by the fact that the pair has been drifting lower along a descending trend-line, which should keep a lid on any attempted recovery move.
 
Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart haven't been supportive of any firm direction and warrant some caution before placing any aggressive bearish bets amid mixed trade headlines.
 
Conversely, a sustained move beyond the trend-line resistance, currently near the 108.80 region and a subsequent breakthrough the 109.00 handle (200-DMA) might negate the bearish bias. USD/JPY daily chart  

WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) is seen moving back and forth in a 50 cents range above the 58 handle so far this Friday, as the bulls consolidate the rece

Oil bulls gathering pace for a test of the 59 handle. Trade deal doubts and dollar strength is limiting the upmove. Oil awaits fresh trade headlines and US Rigs and macro data for the next direction. WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) is seen moving back and forth in a 50 cents range above the 58 handle so far this Friday, as the bulls consolidate the recent upsurge before the next push higher.   The black gold pauses its two-day rebound in the European session, although remains in close vicinity of two-month tops of 58.66 reached a day before. The minor pullback in prices is mainly due to the lingering uncertainty over the US-China interim trade deal following dozens of mixed trade headlines from both countries. The US-China trade anxiety continues to keep the investors unnerved and worries over its effect on the global economic and crude demand growth outlook. Therefore, markets resort to safe-havens such as the US dollar at the expense of the higher-yielding oil. The barrel of WTI rallied on Thursday following the Reuters report that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia are likely to extend existing production cuts by another three months to mid-2020 when they meet in Vienna on Dec. 5. Also, reports of the biggest drawdown in three months for the US crude stock stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, collaborated to the recent upbeat momentum in the commodity. Attention now turns towards the US Manufacturing Sector activity report and Baker Hughes Rigs Count data for near-term trading opportunities. WTI Levels to watch    

Market Wrap: Christine Lagarde, dire PMIs and oil prices We’ve been quite struck by the resurgence in oil prices over the past two days. WTI crude oi

Commodity Report: Crude Oil Price Forecast [Video]Oil prices have pulled back from their highest levels in two months on Friday. Ongoing uncertainty over whether the United States and China will be able to reach a partial trade deal has been the main driver. Read more…     Market Wrap: Christine Lagarde, dire PMIs and oil prices We’ve been quite struck by the resurgence in oil prices over the past two days. WTI crude oil futures are back near two-month highs. It has been interesting to see petrol prices gain while other markets sensitive to the US-China trade war lose out.  We are interpreting this pickup in oil prices as a refocus on supply-side issues in the lead up to the OPEC meeting in December. The price action implies more than we have seen in the news flow. Reports in recent days have suggested OPEC+ will extend its output cuts at its upcoming meeting. We think an extension was already priced in so markets might be positioning for deeper output cuts. Read more...  

In view of FX Strategists at UOB Group, extra weakness in the Aussie Dollar seems to have lost momentum, although a test of 0.6765 still remains on th

In view of FX Strategists at UOB Group, extra weakness in the Aussie Dollar seems to have lost momentum, although a test of 0.6765 still remains on the table. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “AUD traded between 0.6783 and 0.6814, relatively close to our expected sideway-trading range of 0.6785/0.6820. The soft closing in NY (0.6787) suggests the immediate risk is on the downside. That said, in view of lackluster momentum, any weakness is unlikely to threaten the solid support at 0.6765. Resistance is at 0.6805 followed by 0.6820”. Next 1-3 weeks: “AUD surrendered most of the gains from Tuesday (19 Nov) as it declined by -0.40% and closed at 0.6802 in NY. Despite the relatively soft price action, we continue to hold the view from yesterday (20 Nov, spot at 0.6820) wherein the “odds for further AUD weakness have diminished”. However, as highlighted, only a break of 0.6845 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate the current weakness has stabilized. Until then, another ‘down-leg’ to 0.6765 is not ruled out just yet”.

The Eurozone economy weakened further in November as services become more affected by the slowdown, and that's sparking more growth concerns, Bert Col

The Eurozone economy weakened further in November as services become more affected by the slowdown, and that's sparking more growth concerns, Bert Colijn – Senior Economist Eurozone at ING – commented following Friday's release of the flash version of Eurozone PMIs. Key Quotes: “Eurozone PMI decreased slightly in November, from 50.6 to 50.3. As a reading below 50 indicates contraction in the business economy, it seems that growth is slowing to a snail’s pace in the fourth quarter. Spillover effects from the manufacturing recession to the service sector are at the heart of the decline as employment growth is slowing, which is negatively affecting domestic demand.”
 
“The service sector slowdown is, in turn, impacting price growth as businesses indicate that prices charged rose at the slowest pace in three years, which also reflectes weaker input costs. For the ECB, this means that little upside to the inflation outlook can be expected in the coming months.”
 
“All in all, as risks to the global trade outlook remain; we still have no signatures under the phase one deal between the US and China and elections in the UK could determine the fate of the Brexit deal. Without some of these threats off the table, it is tough to see the Eurozone rebounding in the coming months. The winter months will, therefore, be a nail biter for Eurozone growth.”

The intraday selling bias surrounding the British pound picked up some pace in the last hour and dragged the GBP/USD pair to fresh weekly lows, around

Disappointing UK PMI prints for November prompts some fresh selling.Break below the 1.2900 handle might lead to a further intraday weakness.The intraday selling bias surrounding the British pound picked up some pace in the last hour and dragged the GBP/USD pair to fresh weekly lows, around the 1.2880-75 region.
 
The pair failed to capitalize on its early uptick to the 1.2925-30 region and turned lower for the fourth consecutive session on Friday. The intraday pullback accelerated further following the disappointing release of the first even preliminary UK PMI prints for November.
 
The first-ever flash version of the UK Manufacturing PMI fell more-than-expected to 48.3 in November, while the Services PMI also fell short of expectations and came in at 48.6 during the reported month – marking its weakest reading since July 2016.
 
The softer readings could very well be seen as pointing to a possible UK economic contraction during the fourth quarter of 2019 and turned out to be one of the key factors behind the pair's latest leg of a sudden drop of around 40-50 pips over the past hour or so.
 
It will now be interesting to see if the pair is able to find any buying interest at lower levels or the ongoing slide marks a near-term bearish breakdown, setting the stage for an extension of the recent pullback from the vicinity of the key 1.30 psychological mark. Technical levels to watch  

Japan’s Cabinet Office is out with its latest monthly economic assessment report, with the key headlines found below. The Japanese economy is recoveri

Japan’s Cabinet Office is out with its latest monthly economic assessment report, with the key headlines found below. The Japanese economy is recovering at a moderate pace while weakness lasting longer mainly in exports. Private consumption is picking up. Business investment is on the increase at a moderate pace, while weakness is seen in machinery investment. Exports are in a weak tone. Industrial production is in a weak tone recently. Corporate profits are in a weak tone, mainly among manufacturers, although they remain at a high level. Firms' judgments on current business conditions continue increasing cautiousness, mainly among manufacturers. Employment situation is improving. Consumer prices are rising at a slower tempo recently.

More to come ...

UK Manufacturing PMI falls sharply from six-month highs. UK Services PMI enters contraction in November.More to come ...

Cable’s continue its march north with the next target at 1.30 and possibly above, suggested Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzb

Cable’s continue its march north with the next target at 1.30 and possibly above, suggested Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank. Key Quotes “GBP/USD continues to square up to the psychological resistance at 1.3000 and the recent high at 1.3013. Directly above here we have the 200 week ma at 1.3116, the 50% retracement of the move down from 2018 at 1.3167, the 5 year downtrend at 1.3185 and the 1.3187 May high and these remain our short term targets, this is TOUGH resistance and we look for the market to fail here. Above here lies 1.3382 the 2019 high”.

United Kingdom Markit Services PMI came in at 48.6, below expectations (50) in November

United Kingdom Markit Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.3, below expectations (49) in November

The Indian rupee rebounded sharply from daily lows of 71.87 against its American counterpart in the European session, as the USD/INR cross now flirts

Rupee on a four-day winning streak despite trade deal doubts.Lower highs on daily sticks point to further downside. All eyes on trade developments and US data for fresh impetus. The Indian rupee rebounded sharply from daily lows of 71.87 against its American counterpart in the European session, as the USD/INR cross now flirts with daily lows near 71.73 region.   The renewed buying interest seen in the rupee can be mainly attributed to the new foreign trade policy announced by the Indian Foreign Minister Goyal, who said that the new policy will be replaced before end-March 2020. Despite the latest bounce in the Rupee, the sentiment around the USD/INR pair remains underpinned by the safe-haven buying for the US dollar, in the wake of uncertainty over the US-China trade deal prospects and growing market nervousness.   Also, an Indian private bank dealer said that the Indian currency remains under pressure, as “a large foreign bank’s dollar purchases led to stop-losses getting triggered in the rupee.” “Minute buying was enough to trigger stop losses in a market where risk appetite is already weak due to trade uncertainty,” he added. Meanwhile, the recent strength seen in oil prices could also likely remain a drag on the oil-importing currency, the Rupee. Markets now look forward to the US Manufacturing PMI and Consumer Sentiment data for fresh direction. However, the main driver will continue to remain the US-China trade-related developments. USD/INR Levels to watch  

Gold edged higher on the last trading day of the week and recovered a part of the previous session's intraday slide, albeit lacked any strong follow-t

Persistent US-China trade uncertainty helped regain some traction on Friday.A subdued USD demand also underpinned the dollar-denominated commodity.The upside is likely to remain capped near 100-DMA, around the $1480-82 zone.Gold edged higher on the last trading day of the week and recovered a part of the previous session's intraday slide, albeit lacked any strong follow-through traction.
 
The precious metal extended this week's pullback from the vicinity of 100-day SMA barrier and witnessed some aggressive selling on Thursday in the wake of some positive trade-related headlines, which dented demand for traditional safe-haven assets. Focus remains on trade developments Reports on Thursday indicated that China extended an invitation to the top US trade negotiators for another round of face-to-face talks and that the US may delay tariffs on Chinese goods, slated to go into effect on December 15, regardless of the deal.
 
The optimism led to a sharp move up in the US Treasury bond yields, which coupled with a modest pickup in the US dollar demand exerted some additional pressure on the dollar-denominated commodity and collaborated to the overnight downfall.
 
However, the fact that the latest developments came on the back of reports on Wednesday, indicating that the "phase one" trade deal between the world's two largest economies may not be completed this year, added to the confusion and helped limit the downside.
 
Given that the US Senate unanimously passed the Hong Kong Humans Right and Democracy Act bill on Tuesday, risk of a further escalation in the US-China tensions extended support to the commodity, rather helped regain some traction on the last day of the week.
 
Moving ahead, Friday's US economic docket, featuring the release of flash Manufacturing PMI and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, will now be looked upon for some short-term trading impetus later during the early North-American session. Technical levels to watch  

Gold technical analysis: Eyes support at $1,456 Gold prices could drop to support at $1,456, the candlestick pattern on the daily chart indicates. On

Gold clings to 100-day EMA amid a lack of fresh catalysts, US-China tussle in focus Following its first negative daily closing in the week, Gold prices cling to 100-day EMA while flashing $1,465 as a quote during Friday’s Asian session. Despite challenges to the US-China trade deal and doubts over the global economy, the yellow metal recently dropped as the US dollar (USD) managed to lure risk-averse traders. Read more… Gold technical analysis: Eyes support at $1,456Gold prices could drop to support at $1,456, the candlestick pattern on the daily chart indicates. On Thursday, the yellow metal closed below $1,466 – the low of the Wednesday's Doji candle – confirming a bearish reversal. Put simply, the corrective bounce from the Nov. 12 low of $1,445 has ended and the bears have regained control. Read more... XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar” Gold has completed the descending impulse at 1461.91. Possibly, the pair may start a new correction towards 1470.20 and then continue trading inside the downtrend with the short-term target at 1463.60. Read more...

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, EUR/USD seems to have lost some upside pressure. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “While our view for EUR to “edge

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, EUR/USD seems to have lost some upside pressure. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “While our view for EUR to “edge higher towards 1.1095” was correct (high of 1.1096), the subsequent sharp and swift pull-back from the top was not expected. The rapid decline appears to be running ahead of itself but there is room for EUR to test 1.1040 first before the weakness should stabilize (next support is at 1.1010). Resistance is at 1.1080 followed by 1.1095. The latter level is acting as a solid resistance now”. Next 1-3 weeks: “EUR touched a 2-week high of 1.1096 before dropping back quickly to end the day lower by -0.13% (1.1057). While the ‘strong support’ level at 1.1040 is still intact, the soft daily closing is enough to indicate that the recent mild upward pressure has eased. In other words, EUR is likely to continue to trade sideways between 1.1010 and 1.11115 for a while more (we previously expected EUR to trade sideways with an upside bias)”.

More to come ...

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI arrives at 46.6 in November vs. 46.4 expected.Eurozone Services PMI arrives at 51.5 in November vs. 52.5 expected. More to come ...

European Monetary Union Markit PMI Composite came in at 50.3 below forecasts (50.9) in November

European Monetary Union Markit Services PMI below expectations (52.5) in November: Actual (51.5)

European Monetary Union Markit Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (46.4) in November: Actual (46.6)

China’s President Xi Jinping is back on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that China and the US should strengthen communication on strategic issues t

China’s President Xi Jinping is back on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that China and the US should strengthen communication on strategic issues to avoid misjudgment. China’s Pres. Xi: Wants to work out phase one trade deal with US, but not afraid of a trade war China’s Wang urges US to meet China halfway

According to Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, dips in the pair are likely to meet contention in the 1.1040/45 band. Key

According to Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, dips in the pair are likely to meet contention in the 1.1040/45 band. Key Quotes “EUR/USD has started to erode the 55 day ma at 1.1087, but did not sustain the break. This slightly increases the risk of a retest of the 1.1180 recent high (favoured). Dips lower will find near term support offered by the 20 day ma at 1.1044 and will ideally remain contained by 1.0989, the recent low. Above 1.1180 will target the 1.1262 top of the channel and the 1.1359 200 week ma”. “Below 1.10989 lies the 1.0943 78.6% retracement”.

The shared currency has regained some poise at the end of the week and is now lifting EUR/USD to the area of daily highs in the 1.1075/80 band. EUR/US

EUR/USD picks up pace on Friday and tests 1.1086.German November flash manufacturing PMI came in at 45.7.C.Lagarde said the ECB remains vigilant on its policies.The shared currency has regained some poise at the end of the week and is now lifting EUR/USD to the area of daily highs in the 1.1075/80 band. EUR/USD up on weaker dollar, PMIs After two consecutive daily pullbacks, the pair is now regaining some upside traction on the back of the offered bias surrounding the buck and somewhat positive readings from the initial estimates of PMIs in core Euroland. In fact, EUR stays bid after French and German flash manufacturing PMIs for the current months came in above estimates, although in the German case, it is still well into the contraction territory. Of note, however, is the downtrend in the Services sector despite they both remain above the 50.0 threshold. In the meantime, all continues to gyrate around the US-China trade negotiations (or the absence of them) after President Trump recently threatened to impose even higher tariffs. On another front, and at her speech today, ECB’s C.Lagarde said the region would benefit if other policies step in to help, while she stressed that the bank’s monetary policy will continue to sustain the economy and that the ECB keeps monitoring its policies. Later in the session, US advanced manufacturing and services PMIs are due seconded by the final print of the U-Mich index. What to look for around EUR Spot met strong resistance in the 1.1080/90 band for the time being while it keeps looking to USD-dynamics and headlines from the US-China trade front for direction. On the macro view, the outlook in Euroland remains fragile and does nothing but justify the ‘looser for longer’ monetary stance by the ECB and the bearish view on the single currency in the medium term at least. In this regard. Recent manufacturing PMIs appear to have bottomed out, although the deterioration in the services sector seems to have further room to extend. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.01% at 1.1072 and faces the next hurdle at 1.1097 (monthly high Nov.21) followed by 1.1173 (200-day SMA) and finally 1.1179 (monthly high Oct.21). On the downside, a break below 1.0989 (monthly low Nov.14) would target 1.0925 (low Sep.3) en route to 1.0879 (2019 low Oct.1).

According to William De Vijlder, the Group Chief Economist at BNP Paribas, risk has been considered by the IMF, the European Commission and others as

According to William De Vijlder, the Group Chief Economist at BNP Paribas, risk has been considered by the IMF, the European Commission and others as being skewed to the downside. An important implication of this is that the confidence about the baseline forecast will be lower, which in turn may influence consumer spending and, particularly, business investment. Key Quotes: “In recent weeks, somewhat of a rebalancing of risks has occurred. There is hope of a so-called ‘phase 1’ trade deal between the US and China. It’s called phase 1 because of the rather limited scope. In addition, a disorderly Brexit now looks less likely. Finally, recent business survey indicators have stabilised in the US and the eurozone.”
 
“Since more than a year, uncertainty and slowing growth have been the equivalent of hitting the brakes, whereas the recent additional monetary easing in the US and the eurozone correspond to pushing the throttle. Should these developments be confirmed, there is even a chance, for the first time since a long time, of an upside surprise in 2020.”
 
“After having desperately waited for some good news, there is a genuine risk that a positive development triggers an overenthusiastic reaction.”
 
“Looking at the risk of the European Commission, several risk factors remain problematic: geopolitics, Chinese slowdown, climate change, financial market adjustments. On the spillovers from manufacturing to services, the recent stabilisation of survey data provide some hope. On trade tensions, a very limited deal between the US and China could raise concerns about the phase 2 negotiations. In addition, the discussions between the US and the EU may become the next source of worry. Finally, an orderly Brexit will cause uncertainty to vanish because the future relationship still needs to be negotiated.”
 
“All in all, risks have rebalanced somewhat and there is potential for an upside surprise, but they are still skewed to the downside.”

German Manufacturing PMI arrives at 43.8 in November vs. 42.9 expected.

German Manufacturing PMI arrives at 43.8 in November vs. 42.9 expected.

Germany Markit Services PMI below forecasts (52) in November: Actual (51.3)

Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (42.9) in November: Actual (43.8)

While delivering a key note address at the European Banking Congress, in Frankfurt, on Friday, the new European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde

While delivering a key note address at the European Banking Congress, in Frankfurt, on Friday, the new European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde said we face a global environment that is marked by uncertainty two main challenges in the global economy today, the first relates to the changing nature of world trade there are also changes of a more structural nature we have a common interest in maintaining sufficient levels of public investment europe needs to innovate and invest to respond to these challenges More to come …About ECB’s LagardeThe European Central Bank's President Christine Lagarde, born in 1956 in France, has formerly served as Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, and minister of finance in France. She began her eight-year term at the helm of the ECB in November 2019. As part of her job in the Governing Council, Lagarde holds press conferences in detailing how the ECB observes the current and future state of the European economy.

Germany Markit PMI Composite came in at 49.2, below expectations (49.4) in November

The USD/JPY pair struggled to gain any meaningful traction and remained confined in a 15 pips narrow trading band, just above mid-108.00s through the

The USD/JPY pair struggled to build on the overnight rebound from weekly lows.Mixed US-China trade headlines held investors from placing any directional bets.The USD/JPY pair struggled to gain any meaningful traction and remained confined in a 15 pips narrow trading band, just above mid-108.00s through the early European session on Friday.
 
The pair failed to capitalize on the previous session's attempted rebound from one-week lows as investors preferred to stay on the sideline amid mixed trade headlines and no concrete signs of any progress in the US-China trade talks. Focus remains on trade developments Reports on Thursday indicated that China extended an invitation to the top US trade negotiators for a new round of face-to-face talks and that the US may delay tariffs on Chinese goods, which are slated to go into effect on December 15.
 
This came on the back of reports on Wednesday that the "phase one" trade deal between the world's two largest economies may not be completed this year and left investors guessing, rather held the from placing any fresh directional bets.
 
Meanwhile, a subdued US dollar demand did little to provide any meaningful impetus, albeit some follow-through pickup in the US Treasury bond yields turned out to be the only factor that helped limit the downside, at least for now.
 
Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained break through the recent trading range before positioning for the next leg of a directional move amid persistent uncertainty over the future US-China trade relations.
 
Moving ahead, Friday's US economic docket, featuring the release of flash Manufacturing PMI and revised UoM Consumer Sentiment Index, will now be looked upon for some short-term trading opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

Reuters reports the latest comments from the senior Chinese Diplomat Wang Yi, with the same rhetoric on the US-China trade issue. Key Headlines: They

Reuters reports the latest comments from the senior Chinese Diplomat Wang Yi, with the same rhetoric on the US-China trade issue. Key Headlines: They are in close contact with US on trade. Repeats that hope for a trade deal is in everyone's interest. Urges US to meet China halfway, promote healthy and stable development of bilateral relations.

France Markit PMI Composite came in at 52.7, below expectations (52.8) in November

France Markit Services PMI came in at 52.9 below forecasts (53) in November

France Markit Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.6, above expectations (50.9) in November

Robert Rennie, Head of Financial Market Strategy at Westpac, offered his take on the recent mixed messages over the prospects of a preliminary US-Chin

Robert Rennie, Head of Financial Market Strategy at Westpac, offered his take on the recent mixed messages over the prospects of a preliminary US-China trade deal. Key Quotes: “Back on the 11th October, US President Trump and China’s Vice Premier Liu He reached a truce in their trade war, after agreeing a limited deal which saw the US hold off on tariff increases that were due the following week in exchange for Chinese concessions on agricultural purchases.”
 
“The deal was expected to be signed within 5 weeks and global equity markets rose strongly through October and November on expectations for a pickup in global growth.”
 
“Six weeks have passed since the ‘phase-one’ deal was agreed in principle with no deal in place. Indeed only a week ago White House advisor Larry Kudlow claimed the two sides were down to “short strokes”, implying a deal was indeed close.”
 
“Markets are showing some signs of tiring of the steady drip feed of upbeat comments from US officials and no signs of a final agreement looking likely.”

According to Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist at ING Germany, consumption and construction saved the German economy from a technical recession in the

According to Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist at ING Germany, consumption and construction saved the German economy from a technical recession in the third quarter. Key Quotes: “The second estimate of 3Q GDP growth confirmed that the German economy had indeed avoided a technical recession at the last minute. Particularly the strength of private consumption remains an important anti-recession insurance for the entire economy. In fact, private consumption has been growing consecutively every quarter since the start of 2014.”
 
“One main reason why the economy has avoided recession is a long list of election gifts, often criticized as not increasing the long-term growth potential of the German economy. Over the last two years the government has agreed increases in child allowances, pensions and study allowances as well as some tax relief and more money for health care, elderly care and schools. For 2019, all of this has amounted to a fiscal stimulus of some 0.5% of GDP. So much for the urban legend that the German government is allergic to the idea of short-term fiscal stimulus.”
 
“In the short run, however, the economy will continue to flirt with stagnation or even recession. After ten years of almost unstoppable growth, this is not necessarily the end of the world. However, some time ago a growth model mainly driven by consumption and construction would have received quite some criticism. Particularly from one country: Germany. Do we need more evidence that times can change?”

The AUD/USD pair struggled to register any meaningful recovery and held near the lower end of its weekly trading range, below the 0.6800 handle. The p

Mixed trade-related headlines held investors from placing fresh bets.A subdued USD demand helped limit the downside, at least for now.The AUD/USD pair struggled to register any meaningful recovery and held near the lower end of its weekly trading range, below the 0.6800 handle.
 
The pair consolidated the losses recorded over the past two trading session and remained on the defensive on the last trading day of the week amid persistent uncertainty over the future trade relations between the world's two largest economies. Focus remains on trade developments In the latest developments, China on Thursday was reported to have extended an invitation to the US trade negotiations for another round of face-to-face talks. This was followed by a report by the South China Morning Post that the US may delay December 15 China tariffs regardless of the deal.
 
This comes a day after a report indicated that a phase one US-China deal was unlikely to happen this year and held investors from placing any fresh bets, which eventually turned out to be one of the key factors failing to provide any meaningful impetus to the China-proxy aussie.
 
Meanwhile, the downside remained cushioned, at least for the time being, amid a mildly weaker tone surrounding the US dollar, despite some follow-through pickup in the US treasury bond yields, further warranting some caution before positioning for a firm near-term direction.
 
Given that the incoming trade-related headlines might continue to play a key role in influencing the pair's momentum, Friday's US macro data – flash Manufacturing PMI and revised UoM Consumer Sentiment – might also be looked upon for some short-term trading opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

In the view of the analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Governor Lowe’s speech next Tuesda

In the view of the analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Governor Lowe’s speech next Tuesday will be closely eyed for fresh hints on the interest rates outlook. Key Quotes: “The Chart of the Week shows that the ANZ Housing Search Index – which measures Google searches for terms associated with home buying – picked a turn in the housing market earlier this year. It suggests considerable upside in house prices over the coming year, which we think will play a part in boosting retail spending. Along with other data, such as the ANZ Stateometer, this increases our confidence that the economy is gently turning. We don’t think this turn will be strong enough to obviate the need for an additional rate cut or two, but we think it makes a turn to unconventional monetary measures unlikely in 2020. All this makes the RBA Governor’s speech on 26 November compulsory listening. The focus of the Lowe’s address is “Some Lessons from Overseas”, so we don’t expect him to lay out a precise template for RBA action. But we think he could give some insight as to which of the measures implemented overseas would be more appropriate for the Australian economy, if not in the prepared speech then perhaps in the Q&A session.”

According to flash data from CME Group for JPY futures markets, open interest went up for the third session in a row on Thursday, now by just 396 cont

According to flash data from CME Group for JPY futures markets, open interest went up for the third session in a row on Thursday, now by just 396 contracts. Volume, instead, reversed the previous build and shrunk by around 7.4K contracts. USD/JPY faces further consolidationUSD/JPY keeps navigating the consolidative theme below the 109.00 handle amidst increasing open interest and erratic performance in volume in the Japanese safe haven. That said, extra rangebound looks the most likely scenario for the time being, always closely following the developments from the US-China trade front.

The first Preliminary readings of the UK Manufacturing and Services PMIs are due for release today at 0930GMT. The Preliminary UK Manufacturing PMI is

The UK PMIs overview The first Preliminary readings of the UK Manufacturing and Services PMIs are due for release today at 0930GMT. The Preliminary UK Manufacturing PMI is expected to show that the pace of contraction in the activity quickened in November after rebounding to six-month highs in October. The index is expected to arrive at 49.0 versus 49.6 last. Meanwhile, the flash UK Services PMI is expected to steady at 50.00 in November. How could they affect GBP/USD? The Cable continues to hold the higher ground above the 1.2900, in the wake of increasing odds of a majority for the ruling Conservatives Party in the Dec 12 polls while a broadly subdued US dollar amid mixed trade cues also underpins the Cable. The immediate focus now shifts towards the UK Manufacturing PMI data release. Should the data suggest a bigger-than-expected drop, the spot is likely to come under fresh selling pressure, dragging the rates back below 1.2900/ 1.2898 (round number/ 10-DMA), below which 1.2845 (Oct 30 low) could be targeted. However, on a positive surprise, the GBP/USD pair could take-out the 1.2928 5-DMA resistance, above which 1.3000 (psychological level) could be tested en route 1.3014 (Oct highs). Key Notes PMI releases, Lagarde's speech amongst market movers today – Danske Bank GBP Futures: scope for a correction lower GBP/USD Forecast: Going nowhere in a hurry, UK/US PMIs eyed for some impetus About the UK PMIs The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by both the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and the Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in UK. A result above 50 signals is bullish for the GBP, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.The PMI service released by both the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and the Markit Economics is an indicator of the economic situation in the UK services sector. It captures an overview of the condition of sales and employment. It is worth noting that the UK service sector does not influence, either positively or negatively, the GDP as much as the Manufacturing PMI does. 

Argentina Trade Balance (MoM) came in at $1768M, above forecasts ($1300M) in October

Germany Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) in line with expectations (0.5%) in 3Q

Germany Gross Domestic Product (YoY) meets forecasts (1%) in 3Q

Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.1%) in 3Q

Amongst the Euro area economies, the German and the composite Eurozone PMI reports hold more relevance, in terms of its impact on the European currenc

German/ Eurozone flash PMIs Overview Amongst the Euro area economies, the German and the composite Eurozone PMI reports hold more relevance, in terms of its impact on the European currency and the related markets as well. The flash manufacturing PMI for Germany, due at 0830 GMT, is seen arriving at 42.9 in November, up from October’s 42.1 final print while the index for the services sector is expected to rise to 52.0 this month vs. 51.6 last. The forecast for the Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI (due at 0900 GMT) shows 46.4 for November vs. 45.9 seen in the previous month. The Eurozone services sector PMI is seen higher at 52.5 in the reported month vs. 52.2 prior. How could they affect EUR/USD? On a downside surprise, the spot could meet fresh supply and fall back to test the 50-DMA support at 1.1044, a break below which could open floors towards 1.1000 (psychological levels) and 1.0989 (Nov-mid lows). Should the data better estimates, the rates could see a test of the 1.1100 barrier, above which the next resistances are aligned at 1.1150 and 1.1174 (200-DMA). Meanwhile, the EUR’s reaction could be also influenced by the new ECB President Lagarde’s first policy speech that is also due at 0830 GMT.   At the press time, the EUR/USD pair is seen printing fresh session tops at 1.1070, up +0.12% so far. Key Notes EUR/USD Forecast: Seems vulnerable, focus on Lagarde's speech, Euro-zone PMIs EUR Futures: pullbacks appear shallow All eyes on ECB President Lagarde's first real policy speech – TD Securities About German/ Eurozone flash PMIs The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in the Euro Zone. Usually, a result above 50 signals is bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.  

Analysts at Danske Bank provided a brief preview of Friday's key PMI releases from the Euro-zone, the UK and the US. This along with the ECB President

Analysts at Danske Bank provided a brief preview of Friday's key PMI releases from the Euro-zone, the UK and the US. This along with the ECB President Christine Lagarde's first speech should play a key role in influencing the market action on the last trading day of the week. Key Quotes: “The overarching market focus today will be the November PMI releases in the US and the euro area, including Germany. Last month, both the German and the euro area PMIs stabilised around the previous levels and this month's print will show whether this was an actual trough or whether further slowdown lies ahead.”
 
“Recent further increases in indicators such as ZEW and Sentix seem to support the trough view. However, external demand is still the main driver of the euro area manufacturing sector and due to lingering global political uncertainties we do not expect a real trough in the euro area manufacturing cycle until early 2020.”
 
“For November, we expect the euro area manufacturing PMI to hold stable at 45.9 and the service index to fall slightly to 51.9 in light of the recent deteriorating business expectations.”
 
“In the US, we expect the preliminary manufacturing PMIs for November to be broadly unchanged. Markit PMI orders-inventory balance suggests stronger PMI manufacturing in November, but ISM manufacturing has been below 50 the past couple of months. We believe that both PMI and ISM surveys should be monitored together in order to get a clear picture of the manufacturing activity.”
 
“We think UK flash PMIs for November will remain rather weak and in turn support our call for a cut by BoE in January and thus for a higher EUR/GBP.”
 
“New ECB President Lagarde will give a key note speech at 9:00 CET, which may reveal more about her view on the euro area economy and monetary policy. In Sweden, Riksbank's Vice Governors Per Jansson and Henry Ohlsson will also speak about the economic outlook and monetary policy.”

CNBC News quotes a senior executive at the US Chamber of Commerce, as saying that "Phase One" trade deal may not be signed before the December 15 tari

CNBC News quotes a senior executive at the US Chamber of Commerce, as saying that "Phase One" trade deal may not be signed before the December 15 tariffs kick in.

BI refrained from acting on interest rate at its latest meeting and it is expected to keep the same stance in the next months, suggested Enrico Tanuwi

BI refrained from acting on interest rate at its latest meeting and it is expected to keep the same stance in the next months, suggested Enrico Tanuwidjaja, Economist at UOB Group. Key Quotes “Bank Indonesia (BI)’s 7-day Reverse Repo Rate stayed unchanged at 5.00% in November and consequently the Deposit Facility remained at 4.25%, and the Lending Facility at 5.75%... BI said that the policy is consistent with efforts to support the domestic economic growth amidst the global growth slowdown. BI forecast that 2019’s GDP growth is likely to be below 5.2% but will pick up in 2020 in the range of 5.1-5.5%. BI expects Q3 GDP growth at 5.05%. Our 2019 GDP growth forecast remains at 5.1% and to increase slightly to 5.2% in 2020”. “As expected, BI pursued alternative monetary policy in supporting growth and liquidity via the lowering of banks’ reserve requirements by another 50bps to 5.50% for commercial banks and to 4.00% for Shariah banks (first of such RR reduction was made in June this year). This is aimed to ensure the liquidity is adequate and to stimulate growth recovery. It is estimated that around IDR26trn would be “unleashed” in the domestic financial market”. “We continue to view that there is a lagged effect from the lowering of interest rates before affecting the real economy via the lowering of credit rates. We view that inflation expectations will increase going forward in view of a likely fuel and related subsidies’ removal. Additionally, the pace of narrowing of the current account deficit (our forecast is 2.8% of GDP, slightly lower than 2018’s 3.0%) would require monetary policy to remain adequately less-loose. We continue to believe that monetary and macroprudential measures would be more effective in supporting growth recovery”. “Therefore, we expect BI to hold its benchmark interest rate at 5.00% till end 2019. Nevertheless, given our expectations for the US Federal Reserve to possibly reduce its Fed Fund Rate in 1Q 2020, we keep our forecast of one more cut by BI to 4.75% in Q1 2020”.

Open interest and volume in GBP futures markets increased on Thursday by around 2.4K contracts and 11.5K contracts, respectively, as per advanced read

Open interest and volume in GBP futures markets increased on Thursday by around 2.4K contracts and 11.5K contracts, respectively, as per advanced readings from CME Group. GBP/USD risks a test of 1.2770Cable’s drop on Thursday was on the back of rising open interest and volume, a sign that fresh sellers are entering the markets. That said, the door is now open for a deeper retracement with the next relevant target at monthly low near 1.2770.

Barnabas Gan, Economist at UOB Group, reviewed the growth outlook for Singapore. Key Quotes “Singapore’s third quarter economic growth expanded by a b

Barnabas Gan, Economist at UOB Group, reviewed the growth outlook for Singapore. Key Quotes “Singapore’s third quarter economic growth expanded by a better-than-expected rate of 0.5% y/y (+2.1% q/q saar). With a positive q/q growth rate, Singapore has officially avoided a technical recession”. “Growth is underpinned by a sustained expansion in the construction sector, while most services industries (except Wholesale & Retail and Transportation & Storage) grew when compared to the previous year. Manufacturing continued to drag on growth with a 1.7% y/y contraction, but much improved from the preliminary estimate of -3.5%, contributing most to the upward revision”. “Our growth outlook is kept at 0.5% and 1.5% in 2019 and 2020, respectively. This is in line with official estimates whereby 2019’s growth rate has been revised higher to 0.5 – 1.0%, while MTI pencils 2020 growth at 0.5 – 2.5%”. “We expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore to keep its monetary policy parameters unchanged at the next monetary MPS meeting in April 2020. This means keeping the slope (currently perceived at 0.5%), band width (perceived at 2.0%) and centering unchanged”.

Investors scaled back their open interest positions by just 135 contracts on Thursday after two consecutive daily builds, according to preliminary fig

Investors scaled back their open interest positions by just 135 contracts on Thursday after two consecutive daily builds, according to preliminary figures from CME Group. In the same line, volume shrunk by around 11.3K contracts, prolonging the choppy performance seen as of late. EUR/USD remains capped by 1.1080/90EUR/USD is extending the multi-session sidelined mood, always capped by the 1.1080/90 band. Thursday’s negative price action was in tandem with shrinking open interest and volume, hinting at the likeliness that a deeper pullback appears unlikely and leaving the consolidative scenario well in place for the time being.

Michael Gordon, Analyst at Westpac, notes that “the Reserve Bank will be releasing its six-monthly Financial Stability Report (FSR) at 9am next Wednes

Michael Gordon, Analyst at Westpac, notes that “the Reserve Bank will be releasing its six-monthly Financial Stability Report (FSR) at 9am next Wednesday. We do not expect it to include any changes to policy settings.” Key Quotes: “First, we note that the RBNZ will be announcing its final decisions on bank capital requirements on 5 December. It will probably steer clear of commenting on the outcomes ahead of that announcement. Instead, the main point of interest in the FSR will be around any changes to the loan-to-value ratio (LVRs) restrictions on mortgage lending. These have been loosened twice so far, in November 2017 and 2018. Market opinion is split as to whether the RBNZ will loosen them further this time. Our view that there will be no change. There has been speculation that last week’s on-hold OCR decision signalled an intention to loosen the LVR rules instead. That’s not generally the way it works at the RBNZ – each tool is assessed separately. And in any case, such a combo would shift the mix of credit conditions in the opposite direction to what we think the RBNZ would want.”

FX option expiries for Nov 22 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1100 839m - USD/JPY: USD amounts 10

FX option expiries for Nov 22 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts  1.1100 839m - USD/JPY: USD amounts  107.25 380m  107.85 700m  108.00 439m  109.00 707m  110.00 495m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6795 1.1bn

Senior Economist at UOB Group Alvin Liew assessed the recent publication of the FOMC minutes of the October meeting. Key Quotes “In the latest minutes

Senior Economist at UOB Group Alvin Liew assessed the recent publication of the FOMC minutes of the October meeting. Key Quotes “In the latest minutes, most Federal Reserve policy makers “believed that a reduction of 25 basis points in the target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate” in the October decision, “in light of persistent weakness in global growth and elevated uncertainty regarding trade developments” but not everyone was on board with the October rate cut decision as some “participants favored maintaining the existing target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting”. “As for the policy direction going forward, most participants believed that after the cut in October, the policy stance is appropriate and “would be well calibrated” and “likely would remain so as long as incoming information about the economy did not result in a material reassessment of the economic outlook”. “The FOMC minutes helped reinforced expectations for a Fed policy cycle pause after three sequential 25bps rate cuts in July, September and October but provided little else in terms of new information”. “Without further new insights to the Fed policymakers’ rate trajectory preferences, we maintain our expectations for the Fed to stay on pause in the 10/11 December 2019 FOMC decision. We expect the Fed to implement the next 25bps rate cut in 1Q 2020, and thereafter to stay on pause again for the rest of 2020. The caveat is that if trade tensions persist well beyond 2019 and into next year, then we think the Fed will have to take on more easing in 2020, especially if it leads to material downside impact to US and global growth”.

Analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) provides a list of the key economic events of note in Asia next week. Key Quotes: “AU: Anoth

Analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) provides a list of the key economic events of note in Asia next week. Key Quotes: “AU: Another relatively quiet week for data, with the early building blocks of GDP in focus. We expect construction work done will continue to decline, albeit at a slower rate of 0.4% q/q. Following two quarters of decline, we expect Q3 private capex to rise modestly (0.3%), driven by an improvement in mining. For the AUD, the global growth pulse, and Central Bank speeches are likely to be a bigger focus. NZ: The key release for the week will be the ANZ Business Outlook. With the RBNZ hitting pause at the last meeting, a better result is needed to justify its view that past policy actions are starting to bear fruit. The recent outperformance of the NZD will be contingent on a reasonable result.  CH: We expect the November PMIs to show that the Chinese industrial sector is in contractionary territory, while the service sector stabilises at lower levels.  HK: On Sunday, Hong Kong is scheduled to hold district council elections, the first citywide vote since protests broke out more than five months ago.”

Analysts at ING ascertain financial risk while closely observing Hong Kong protests and market performance since the beginning of the violence.

Analysts at ING ascertain financial risk while closely observing Hong Kong protests and market performance since the beginning of the violence. Key quotes Ongoing violent incidents in Hong Kong mean that market participants are looking for signs of financial risk. Interest rates, which have risen since the protests began, are a good place to start. We benchmark the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) to another economy's interbank rate in order to strip out the possibility that any rise in HIBOR has been driven by global events. The usual benchmark is USD London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), the US's interbank interest rate. The most common approach is to use the three-month HIBOR-LIBOR spread as an indicator of liquidity tightness in Hong Kong. HKD forward points, which drive off these spreads, are basically another way of looking at the same thing. Not surprisingly, they have also pushed higher.  The HIBOR-LIBOR spread was around 0 percentage points to -1 percentage point for most of the time since 2016. But this has moved from negative to positive since mid-June, i.e., Hong Kong dollar interest rates have gone up, which matches the date that violence began in Hong Kong.  On 20 November, the HIBOR-LIBOR spread was around +0.6 percentage points. However, this is not very high compared to previous episodes of financial stress in Hong Kong. The last time we saw a large positive HIBOR-LIBOR spread was back in 1997 during the Asian Financial Crisis.  Readers may wonder why there was no spike in the HIBOR-LIBOR spread during the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-2009. But that was because the risk originated from the US, and spreads were negative. US liquidity strains were higher than those in Hong Kong. Returning to the high positive spread back in 1997, this rose as high as 10 percentage points on 27 October 1997.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the greenback vs. a basket of its main competitors, is extending the gradual weekly upside to the 98.00 neighb

DXY looks to extend gains around the 98.00 area.US 10-year yields stay flat below the 1.80% mark.Flash PMIs, final U-Mich index next on the docket.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the greenback vs. a basket of its main competitors, is extending the gradual weekly upside to the 98.00 neighbourhood. US Dollar Index stays focused on trade, looks to data The index continues to recover albeit at a slow pace from Monday’s lows in the 97.70/65 band against the backdrop of renewed concerns on the US-China trade front and escalating tensions over the unremitting social unrest in Hong Kong. In fact, uncertainty around the ‘Phase One’ deal remains on the rise amidst the lack of progress in past weeks, while President Trump threatened once again to raise tariffs even higher if both countries remain unable to sign a deal in the near term. In the US docket, advanced manufacturing and services PMIs are due seconded by the final print of the November’s Consumer Sentiment measured by the U-Mich index. What to look for around USD The index seems to have met solid contention in the 97.70 region so far this week. In the meantime, headlines from the US-China trade dispute are expected to remain as the exclusive driver when comes to price action in the global markets, while investors keep monitoring US fundamentals amidst the ‘wait-and-see’ stance from the Federal Reserve and the steepening of the 2y-10y yield curve seen as of late. Moving to US politics, markets keep ignoring developments from the Trump’s impeachment process, while the impact on the FX space remains muted so far. On the broader view, however, the outlook on the greenback still looks constructive on the back of the Fed’s ‘wait-and-see’ mode vs. the dovish stance from its G10 peers, the dollar’s safe haven appeal and the status of ‘global reserve currency’. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the pair is losing 0.03% at 97.93 a breakout of 98.45 (monthly high Nov.13) would open the door to 99.25 (high Oct.8) and then 99.67 (2019 high Oct.1). On the other hand, immediate contention is located at 97.68 (monthly low Nov.18) seconded by 97.57 (200-day SMA) and finally 97.11 (monthly low Nov.1).

Analysts at Rabobank recently came out with their check of the United Kingdom’s (UK) opposition Labour Party manifesto that was released on Thursday.

Analysts at Rabobank recently came out with their check of the United Kingdom’s (UK) opposition Labour Party manifesto that was released on Thursday. Key quotes Labour is pledging to: boost spending on health, with up to 5% pay-rises for front-line staff; raise the minimum wage from GBP8.21 to 10; freeze the age of receiving a pension at 66. Introduce a National Care Service; move to net-zero carbon emissions within the 2030s; nationalise the big-six energy firms, the national grid, water, Royal Mail, the railways. Broadband (which will be free); move towards a 4-day week; start a new benefits system; free bus travel for under 25s; build 100,000 council homes a year; and abolish university tuition fees. Taxes will also rise by GBP80bn via 5% income tax increases for top earners; large corporation tax up from 19% to 26%; capital gains tax equalised with income tax; inheritance tax thresholds lowered to a level far below the average price of a house in the Southeast; taxing second homes; and placing VAT on private education. The Institute for Fiscal Studies rejects Labour’s claims that this will mean no tax change for 95% of Brits, and states these plans would raise the tax burden to the highest level since WW2, even surpassing the Denis Healey “Squeeze the rich until the pips squeak” 70’s. Obviously, markets don’t like it – but will voters? Do these bread and lots of butter matters outweigh the Tories’ Brexit focus? For now, there is still no Tory manifesto, just a--relatively--feeble promise to raise the National Insurance threshold over five years, eventually putting GBP500 a year in people’s pockets. GBP will therefore be watching with keen interest as we move towards seeing what is on offer when the Conservatives “put their right arm in; their right arm out; in, out, in, out and shake it all about.”

China’s Pres. Xi: Wants to work out phase one agreement on trade with US, but not afraid of a trade war MOre to come ...

China’s Pres. Xi: Wants to work out phase one agreement on trade with US, but not afraid of a trade war  MOre to come ...

Here is what you need to know on Friday, November 22: US-Sino Relations: The US navy has carried out operations in the South China Sea, angering the w

Here is what you need to know on Friday, November 22: US-Sino Relations: The US navy has carried out operations in the South China Sea, angering the world's second-largest economy. Relations remain tense even though President Donald Trump refrained from signing Congress' Hong-Kong bill into law. Earlier, the Chinese media reported that the US may postpone the imposition of new tariffs due for December 15 even if a deal is not struck. Beijing sent Washington an invitation for further high-level talks.  USD/JPY is stable above 108.50 and Gold trades above $1,460 as markets, including safe-havens, await more details. Headlines are set to continue moving markets. See Trade to continue whipsawing markets, with potential light at the end of the tunnelChristine Lagarde, the new president of the European Central Bank, delivers a speech in Frankfurt amid a broad divide within the bank about the direction of monetary policy. Lagarde likely supports the doves, like her predecessor Mario Draghi, that pushed through for more bond-buying. The ECB's meeting minutes have exposed the substantial gap with the hawks, who reject further easing.Euro-zone Purchasing Managers' Indexes for November are to show a small improvement in sentiment, but Germany's manufacturing PMI will likely continue contracting rapidly. EUR/USD remains in its familiar range between 1.1050 to 1.11. See Euro-zone PMIs preview: Modest expectations may be too high, three EUR/USD scenariosUK elections: Despite a lackluster debate performance, Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservatives maintain a double-digit lead over Labour in the polls. The opposition party revealed its manifesto on Thursday, and voters' responses to both events, via polls, are awaited. UK PMIs: Markit releases preliminary manufacturing and services PMIs for the UK for the first time. The manufacturing sector is contracting while services are stagnant. US data: Markit's preliminary PMIs for November are set to show modest growth in both services and manufacturing. Existing Home Sales and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index came out roughly within expectations on Thursday.USD/CAD has fallen after Stephen Poloz, Governor of the Bank of Canada has dismissed speculation of cutting rates, saying that current conditions are adequate. Canadian retail sales figures for September are set to move the loonie today.  Cryptocurrencies are extending their slump, with Bitcoin trading around $7,500.
 

Westpac’s Bill Evans keeps his view of a rate cut in February intact while also looking forward to the next week’s speech by the RBA Governor.

Westpac’s Bill Evans keeps his view of a rate cut in February intact while also looking forward to the next week’s speech by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe’s speech. Key quotes "The minutes of the November monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board give us no significant reason to change our view that the next rate cut will occur in February." "While some forecasters have been promoting the idea of a move in December, the minutes provided the flavour of a Board that is in no hurry to make the next cut." "Nevertheless, the minutes do not want to leave the reader in any doubt that the Board continues to have a clear easing bias." "Some commentaries interpreted the latter remark as indicating that the Board was close to cutting rates at the meeting. However, my view is that it was used to emphasise a strong easing bias, particularly aimed at containing any upward drift in the AUD rather than any serious risk of an unexpected move in November."

The TD Securities Analysts offer a brief preview of what they expect from the new European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde’s speech due this Frid

The TD Securities Analysts offer a brief preview of what they expect from the new European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde’s speech due this Friday at 0830 GMT. Key Quotes: “ECB President Christine Lagarde delivers the keynote address at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress at 8:30am GMT. We think that this is likely to be her first real policy speech, since unlike the laudation she gave for Schaueble a couple of weeks ago, this speech is at the right time (during market hours), and is at a more appropriate venue. We are particularly eager to hear her view on further QE and rate cuts, and how high the bar is for delivering further stimulus.”

Mixed headlines on the US-China trade talks and a likely deal overnight translated into a cautiously optimistic trading environment in Asia on the fin

Mixed headlines on the US-China trade talks and a likely deal overnight translated into a cautiously optimistic trading environment in Asia on the final trading day of the week. The FX markets were left in a tizzy amid a lack of clarity on the trade developments and growing skepticism. Therefore, most majors stuck to tight trading ranges, as the US dollar consolidated its latest drop vs. its main rivals. Among the Asia-pac currencies, the USD/JPY pair traded around a flat line near 108.60 despite a bounce in the Asian stocks from three-week lows while the Aussie recovery from multi-day lows was limited by the 0.68 handle. The Kiwi also posted small gains just ahead of the 0.64 handle. The Antipodeans lacked follow-through on the upside amid a retreat in oil and lackluster trading in gold prices. Positive Treasury yields kept the yellow metal in check. Heading into a hectic European session, both the EUR/USD pair and GBP/USD cling to their recovery gains, with the Fiber holding above 1.1050 while the latter keeps the 1.29 handle. Main Topics in Asia Ex-Fed Chair Yellen: There is good reason to worry about the US economy sliding into recession – CNBC Japan CPI (YoY) Oct 0.2% (Est 0.3%; Prev 0.2%) Trump wants Senate trial, expects Joe Biden to testify -White House - Reuters China Stats Bureau revises 2018 GDP higher by 2.1% Japan’s Nishimura: Want to keep a close watch on impact of weakness in overseas economies China’s Military urges US to stop provocative acts in South China Sea S&P stands by its Hong Kong rating despite turmoil - Bloomberg China said to have asked big banks to increase loans to the manufacturing sector Key Focus Ahead Markets gear up for a big day ahead, with global manufacturing sector activity data to dominate and throw fresh light on the state of the global economy. First up on the EUR calendar is the final revision of the German Q3 GDP, dropping at 0700 GMT. Soon the Euro area Markit Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI releases will start trickling in from 0815 GMT, with the key German and Eurozone reports due at 0830 GMT and 0900 GMT respectively. The new UK flash Manufacturing and Services PMI readouts by Markit will be closely watched at 0930 GMT. Meanwhile, the speech by the new ECB President Lagarde, due at 0830 GMT, is expected to steal the show, as she is due to make her first policy speech at the European Banking Congress, in Frankfurt. We have a busy NA session as well, with the ECB Governing Council member Weidmann’s speech and Canadian Retail Sales data dropping in ahead of the US open. Later on, the US Markit Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI data will be published at 1445 GMT, followed by the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, scheduled at 1500 GMT. In the American mid-morning, Baker Hughes oilfields services company will release the US Oil Rigs Count data at 1800 GMT. Despite an eventful Friday docket, the US-China trade-related developments will likely supersede and continue to direct the risk trends, as we wrap up a data-light but cautious-trading dominated week.   EUR/USD: Focus on new ECB President Lagarde's first policy speech EUR/USD looks heavy with the weekly candle showing buyer exhaustion.  ECB's Lagarde is unlikely to talk dovish in her first major policy speech. The focus is also on the preliminary Eurozone and Germany PMI numbers.  GBP/USD challenges 3-day downpour ahead of UK PMIs Given the shift in the market’s trade sentiment, GBP/USD bucks the three-day-old downtrend while slightly bid above 1.2900 ahead of the London open on Friday. Brexit Party to unveil its policies while the first preliminary PMI from the UK will also be the key to watch. Gold technical analysis: Eyes support at $1,456 Gold prices could drop to support at $1,456, the candlestick pattern on the daily chart indicates. On Thursday, the yellow metal closed below $1,466 – the low of the Wednesday's Doji candle – confirming a bearish reversal. Euro-zone PMIs preview: Modest expectations may be too high, three EUR/USD scenarios Flash euro-zone PMIs are set to show an improvement in November. High expectations may lead to a downfall for EUR/USD. Only a substantial surprise has room to lift the common currency. ECB's Lagarde's speech may steal the show.  

EUR/GBP fails to justify Monday’s Doji candle as the quote remains directionless around 0.8565 ahead of the European open on Friday.

EUR/GBP stays directionless despite bouncing off six-month lows.Prices remain clubbed between the low of Monday’s Doji and 0.8600/05 resistance confluence.Broad bearish momentum remains intact unless breaking 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.EUR/GBP fails to justify Monday’s Doji candle as the quote remains directionless around 0.8565 ahead of the European open on Friday. The quote bounced off six-month lows on Monday and registered a Doji candle, signaling a recovery. However, prices still stay below near-term key resistance confluence around 0.8600/05 area including 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a five-week-old falling trend line. Should buyers concentrate on the bullish signal from 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD), they to stay strong beyond 0.8605 to aim for 0.8680 and mid-October highs near 0.8750. Though, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of May-August upside, at 0.8810, could keep the pair’s further upside limited. Alternatively, a daily closing below Monday’s low of 0.8522 can recall bears targeting May month bottom of 0.8490 and the yearly low near 0.8470. EUR/GBP daily chart Trend: Bearish  

Reuters reports the latest comments from China’s President Xi Jinping is on the wires now, via Reuters, with the key headlines found below. Long-term

Xinhua reports the latest comments from China’s President Xi Jinping is on the wires now, via Reuters, with the key headlines found below. The long-term improving trend for china's economy will not change. China's economy has great resilience, potential and room for manoeuvre. Have full confidence in china's development.

EUR/USD has returned to range after failing to rise above 1.11. Is it set to fall? Not so fast. The charts marginally favor the upside. The Technical

EUR/USD has returned to range after failing to rise above 1.11. Is it set to fall? Not so fast. The charts marginally favor the upside. The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.1075, which is a cluster of lines including the Simple Moving Average 200-15m, the SMA 50-1h, the SMA 100-1h, the SMA 10-4h, the Bollinger Band 4h-Middle, and the BB one-day Middle. Looking down, support is stronger. At 1.1047, we find fewer but stronger lines. These include the Fibonacci 23.6% one-week, the SMA 10-1d, the SMA 50-1d, the SMA 200-1h, and the SMA 50-4h.  Below, euro/dollar has support at 1.0966, which is where the Pivot Point one-month Support 1 and the PP 1w-S2.  Above, the target is 1.1179, which is the confluence of the previous monthly high and the SMA 200-one-day.  Here is how it looks on the tool: Confluence Detector The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. This tool assigns a certain amount of “weight” to each indicator, and this “weight” can influence adjacents price levels. These weightings mean that one price level without any indicator or moving average but under the influence of two “strongly weighted” levels accumulate more resistance than their neighbors. In these cases, the tool signals resistance in apparently empty areas. Learn more about Technical Confluence

Given the shift in the market’s trade sentiment, GBP/USD bucks the three-day-old downtrend while taking the bids to 1.2920 ahead of the London open on Friday.

GBP/USD is taking the bids for the first time since Monday.Tories keep leading the polls despite allegations of spoofing the Labour Party’s manifesto.Brexit Party to unveil its policies while the first preliminary PMI from the UK will also be the key to watch.Given the shift in the market’s trade sentiment, GBP/USD bucks the three-day-old downtrend while taking the bids to 1.2920 ahead of the London open on Friday. The recent recovery could partially be attributed to the silence, prior to taking a positive turn, in the US-China trade tussle. As per the Reuters, the United States (US) may delay December 15 tariff hikes while the CNBC’s news of China still having US trade negotiators on their invitation list triggered risk recovery. Even so, the US Navy’s claim of “Freedom of Navigation” in the South China Sea was harshly criticized by Beijing. On the other hand, the United Kingdom’s (UK) ruling Tory Party is under attack over spoofing the opposition Labour Party’s manifesto. The Conservatives were earlier blamed over their factcheck twitter handle. Though, nothing stops the polls to keep the Tories on the lead, as does the latest from Ipsos MORI. The Brexit Party is up for releasing its policies later today amid the leader Nigel Farage’s calls of making “contract with the British people”. Other than Brexit, an anti-immigration move of Mr. Farage has always been criticized, which in turn might entertain market during the day. On the economic calendar, Markit is scheduled to release preliminary readings of the UK’s Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) numbers while the US PMIs and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will also decorate the line. “This month brings the first flash PMIs for the UK. For the manufacturing PMI, we look for a bit of a pullback to 49.3 (market: 48.8), as election uncertainty weighs on sentiment. Hopes for a phase I China-US trade deal and receding odds of a hard Brexit should help to keep the PMI above its lows from the summer. We also see upside risks to the services PMI, looking for a small rise from 50.0 to 50.4 (market: 50.1),” says TD Securities. Technical Analysis Despite the pair’s recent recovery, bearish pin bar on the daily chart keep favoring the GBP/USD pair’s declines to monthly low near 1.2770. Though, an upside clearance of 1.3000 will defy the bearish candlestick formation.  

Japanese ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) official Seko was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, noting that it is desirable for the governm

Japanese ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) official Seko was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, noting that it is desirable for the government to compile supplementary budget with spending of 10 tln yen. “Government shouldn't hesitate issuing more bonds to fund stimulus package”, he added. Recently, there have been increasing calls for JPY 10 trillion extra budget by the Japanese officials. However, so far the reports have had little impact on the Yen markets, as USD/JPY currently trades almost unchanged around 108.65 amid trade uncertainty. Japan ruling party's Nikai: Need JPY 10 trln extra budget - Jiji Japan’s TradeMin: An extra budget of around JPY 10 tln is needed Japanese ruling coalition are seeking JPY 10 tln for the extra budget - Nikkei

Based on its U-turn from 0.9870, the USD/CHF pair current takes the bids to the highest in eight-day while trading around 0.9940 during early Friday.

Following its latest recovery, USD/CHF rises to the highest since the previous Tuesday.200-day SMA and multi-week-old resistance line hold the key to pair’s run-up towards 1.0000 mark.0.9870 can entertain short-term sellers.Based on its U-turn from 0.9870, the USD/CHF pair current takes the bids to the highest in eight-day while trading around 0.9940 during early Friday. However, 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a downward sloping trend line since October-starts, around 0.9950 and 0.9965 respectively, stand tall to challenge buyers. It’s worth mentioning that the pair’s run-up beyond 0.9965 enables it to claim 1.0000 round-figure whereas the previous month high close to 1.0030 could challenge bulls then after. Should prices take a U-turn from the present levels, 0.9870 can act as nearby key support ahead of October month low near 0.9835. Additionally, the pair’s extended downpour beneath 0.9835 emphasizes on 0.9800/0.9795 area including September bottom and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of August-October upside. USD/CHF daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

EUR/USD is looking heavy as per technical studies and may drop sharply if the new European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde sounds dovish in h

EUR/USD looks heavy with the weekly candle showing buyer exhaustion. ECB's Lagarde is unlikely to talk dovish in her first major policy speech. The focus is also on the preliminary Eurozone and Germany PMI numbers. EUR/USD is looking heavy as per technical studies and may drop sharply if the new European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde sounds dovish in her first policy speech. The pair is currently trading at 1.1063, representing a 0.12% gain on a week-to-date basis, having hit a high of 1.1097 on Thursday. The long upper wick attached to the weekly candle indicates buyer exhaustion. Therefore, the pair appears on track to pierce support at 1.1052. That will likely invite stronger selling pressure, as discussed in the Asian session. Lagarde speech due at 08:30 GMT The new ECB President will be delivering her first big policy speech at a banking conference in Frankfurt, having refrained from commenting on the monetary policy during her Nov. 4 speech in Berlin. Dovish comments will likely drive EUR/USD to 1.10, according to Kathy Lien, Managing Director Of FX Strategy For BK Asset Management. The EUR will likely invalidate the immediate bearish set up with a convincing move above 1.11 if Lagarde sounds optimistic about the economy and calls for more effort on the fiscal front. Recent reports have a very deep and wide rift within the ECB. Many board members had opposed former President Draghi's decision to announce a fresh stimulus in September. Therefore, Lagarde has little room to raise hopes for more stimulus. Further, Germany avoided recession in the third quarter. All-in-all, the probability of Lagarde sounding neutral-to-hawkish is high. The resulting gains in the EUR, however, could be erased if the preliminary Eurozone and German PMI, scheduled for release after Lagarde's speech, disappoint expectations. The final reading for Germany's third-quarter GDP, due at 07:00 GMT, is unlikely to move the pair. Technical levels  

USD/INR weakens for the fourth day in a row as recent government measures from India, coupled with fresh trade/investment news, keep the Asian currency stronger

USD/INR stays on the back foot for four consecutive days amid US-China trade pessimism.Optimism surrounding Indian trade relations with the rest of the world, expected an increase in investments in favors the Indian rupee (INR).Second-tier data on the economic calendar, trade/political headlines will offer fresh direction.USD/INR weakens for the fourth day in a row as recent government measures from India, coupled with fresh trade/investment news, keep the Asian currency on the front foot. With this, the quote drops to 71.70 while heading into the European session on Friday. In contrast to the trade differences between the United States (US) and China, the US-India trade relations are likely to improve as both the parties recently agreed on equitable market access for trade deal in recent days. Additionally, increased investments from global bond champions like Advent international, coupled with the hope for further government measures, as it did in recent days, favor the INR. The underlying reason could also be the global trust in the Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi after securing a huge victory in the general election and building strong international ties. In this regard, CIBC says, “the re-election of the Modi government this year saw investor confidence in the potential of the economy and in the administration’s attempt at reform to become somewhat stilted. Nevertheless, we’re optimistic about economic potential, despite the difficulty of tapping into the economy’s resources and the number of unsuccessful attempts at reform thus far. We look for INR to remain a buy-weakness story, rather than chasing the market higher.” While traders await fresh clues on the US-China tussle, the dragon nation’s military urges the US to stop provocative acts in the South China Sea after the US Navy earlier mentioned of two ships took rounds as a mark of “Freedom of Navigation.” Both the nations are at loggerheads after the US Congress passed Hong Kong Bill while calls of the US to delay December 15 tariff hike and China’s trade-talk invitation keep investors guessing. It’s worth mentioning that Asian stocks and the US 10-year Treasury yields seesaw near Thursday’s close amid a lack of major catalysts. Moving on, India’s Forex Reserve and Bank Loan Growth might not gain major attention amid traders’ wait for US-China story. However, activity numbers and consumer sentiment data from the US could keep market-watchers entertained during the rest of the day. Technical Analysis 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and November 12 low highlight 71.50 as near-term key support ahead of 71.30 and 71.00. Alternatively, 72.38/40 and 72.65/70 could continue challenging buyers.  

Speaking at a forum in Beijing, Ma Jun, the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member, said that there is more scope for

Speaking at a forum in Beijing, Ma Jun, the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member, said that there is more scope for China to adjust its monetary and fiscal policies. Key Quotes (via Bloomberg): "In the short term, there is still a lot of uncertainty about China-U.S. trade tensions. If there is a mini-deal, it would be a boon for China's economy next year. If not, and the tensions worsen, there will be rising downward pressure.” “China still has room to adjust its counter-cyclical policies including fiscal, monetary and for real estate." China said to have asked big banks to increase loans to the manufacturing sector

EUR/USD three-month risk reversals (EUR3MRR), a gauge of calls to puts on the common currency, rose to the highest level since January 2018 on Friday,

EUR/USD three-month risk reversals show bullish (call) bias is strongest in 22 months. The options market turned bullish on the common currency earlier this month. EUR/USD three-month risk reversals (EUR3MRR), a gauge of calls to puts on the common currency, rose to the highest level since January 2018 on Friday, indicating investors are adding bets to position for an uptick in the EUR.  Three-month risk reversals jumped to 0.225 – a level last seen in the second half of January 2018.  The positive number indicates the implied volatility premium or demand for the EUR call options (bullish bets) is higher than that for the EUR puts (bearish bets).  The gauge turned positive earlier this month and has witnessed a near 90-degree rise from -0.375 seen on Nov. 13.  While risk reversals are pointing to bullish bias, EUR/USD is looking heavy, having failed repeatedly failed in the last four days to convincingly scale key Fibonacci retracement of 1.1082. EUR3MRR

Reuters reports the latest headlines, citing that China has reportedly asked its big banks to increase loans to the manufacturing sector.

Reuters reports the latest headlines, citing that China has reportedly asked its big banks to increase loans to the manufacturing sector. This effort to ramp up the country’s slowing economic growth comes after a couple of rate cuts by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). Meanwhile, USD/CNY remains on the front foot near 7.0315, as the Chinese yuan remains pressured by the US-China trade confusion.

Following its drop to the weekly low, AUD/USD recovers from a multi-week-old support trend line while taking rounds to 0.6785 during early Friday.

AUD/USD bounces off the six-week-old support line.21 and 50-day EMA, coupled with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement limits near-term upside.Sellers can watch over 0.6700 following the downside break.Following its drop to the weekly low, AUD/USD recovers from a multi-week-old support trend line while taking rounds to 0.6785 during early Friday. Even so, buyers are likely finding it hard to extend the pullback beyond 0.6825/30 resistance confluence as it including 21/50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of July-September declines. Increasing the downside bias are bearish signals by 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator. That said, pair’s sustained break of 0.6830 might not refrain from challenging 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.6875 whereas 0.6900 and monthly high close to 0.6930 could entertain bulls during further advances. On the contrary, sellers will look for fresh entry below an ascending support line stretched since October 09, at 0.6780 now. In doing so, a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.6767 and 0.6735/30 can offer intermediate halts prior to fetching the quote to 0.6700 that nears multiple lows marked since late-August. During the sellers’ dominance past-0.6700, October month low near 0.6670 can come back on the charts. AUD/USD daily chart Trend: Bearish  

Asian equities are lacking a clear directional bias on Friday amid mixed headlines on the US-China trade. Currently, Japan's Nikkei is trading 0.5% hi

Asian stocks are trading mixed amid confusing trade-related headlines. Nikkei is reporting moderate gains while China's index is flashing red. FX markets are also lacking a clear directional bias.Asian equities are lacking a clear directional bias on Friday amid mixed headlines on the US-China trade. Currently, Japan's Nikkei is trading 0.5% higher on the day, while China'sA50 index is shedding 0.25%. Stocks in Australia and South Korea are reporting moderate gains, while those in Hong Kong and New Zealand are trading flat to positive. Meanwhile, the futures on the S&P 500 are adding just 0.15%. The index fell 0.16% on Wednesday on waning trade optimism. No clear trend is seen in the FX markets with the Japanese Yen trading in a sideways manner against most majors. USD/JPY is currently trading at 108.63 and EUR/USD is flatlined at 1.1063. Elsewhere, gold is reporting marginal gains at $1,465 per Oz and barrel of Brent crude is changing hands at $63.60, representing a 0.6 percent drop on the day. Wall Street Journal on Thursday reported that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, during a phone call made late last week, had invited US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to Beijing for trade negotiations. The Journal added further that US negotiators had accepted the invitation. Further, the South China Morning Post cited a source close to the Trump administration as saying that both countries are on the “doorstep” of reaching a deal. The news flow, however, was not so positive in the first half of the week. Beijing on Wednesday warned retaliation to the US Senate's move to approve legislation aimed at safeguarding human rights in Hong Kong. Meanwhile, President Trump said that the US will raise tariffs on Chinese goods if the world's second-largest economy does not agree to a deal he wants. The latest positive news, however, has so far failed to fuel a notable risk-on rally, possibly because both sides have a history of backtracking on positive comments. Investors, therefore, may be wary of initiating bullish bets.

While speaking to Bloomberg, Kim Eng Tan, Senior Director of sovereign ratings at the ratings firm, S&P Global Ratings, Hong Kong's unique access to m

While speaking to Bloomberg, Kim Eng Tan, Senior Director of sovereign ratings at the ratings firm, S&P Global Ratings, Hong Kong's unique access to mainland China will keep the city as an Asian financial hub and its credit rating intact despite ongoing protests. More to come ...

In a recent interview with China’s state news agency, Xinhua, Roberto Azevedo, Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO), made some comme

In a recent interview with China’s state news agency, Xinhua, Roberto Azevedo, Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO), made some comments on the recent challenges faced by the global economy, in light of the US-China trade war. Key Quotes: “China has been an important supporter of multilateral collaboration.” "Uncertainty is dragging down the economy because investors are not investing in projects, in enterprises, that are critical to keep the economy growing, and that kind of uncertainty needs to be scaled down "There's not a whole lot of room" now for most countries to use traditional tools in fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate the economy. "Trade conflicts heighten uncertainty, which is leading some businesses to delay the productivity-enhancing investments that are essential to raising living standards." "I think what is left is making sure that the trade tensions diminish and that the uncertainties (are) reduced, and ... the best way to do it is through more collaboration." "The more we can do to help diminish the trade tensions, the more we can do to reduce the level of uncertainties in the world, the better it will be for the global economy and for everybody else." Unilateral actions cannot be "the end of the game" of trade tensions, as solutions and agreements are the ultimate objectives. "The longer we take to get there, the more the global economies would suffer." "There are no winners in this scenario."

Amidst ongoing US-China trade and political chaos, we have fresh headlines on the geopolitical front after Reuters reported earlier today that two US

Amidst ongoing US-China trade and political chaos, we have fresh headlines on the geopolitical front after Reuters reported earlier today that two US Navy ships carried out operations in the South China Sea this week. Responding to the reports, China’s military came out with a statement, urging the US to stop provocative acts. The Chinese military said Chinese ships tracked the US navy ships that sailed near islands claimed by China in the South China Sea.

Bank for International Settlements (BIS) on Friday said it is not a question of fiscal policy per se, but of wise fiscal policy and added further that

Bank for International Settlements (BIS) on Friday said it is not a question of fiscal policy per se, but of wise fiscal policy and added further that amalgamating monetary and fiscal policy to bolster the economy isn’t the right solution to the world’s slow-growth, low-inflation challenge. Key quote "Well-chosen and executed investment, for example, is generally preferable to current expenditures" 

According to a Reuters poll of property market analysts, the recent interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and another rate cut exp

According to a Reuters poll of property market analysts, the recent interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and another rate cut expected are likely to drive the Australian housing market upturn well into 2020. Key Findings: “The latest Reuters poll of 13 property analysts taken Nov. 6-20 showed average home prices would rise 5.0% nationally next year, nearly double the rate predicted just three months ago, and then slowing to 4.5% in 2021. Six of 10 analysts who answered an additional question said further interest rate cuts to the record-low 0.75% benchmark cash rate after three RBA cuts already this year would stimulate Australia’s housing market activity and prices significantly. All but one respondent in the latest Reuters poll said that Australia’s housing market activity is more likely to rebound over the coming 12 months than decline again. A regional breakdown of the poll data showed Sydney and Melbourne, Australia’s two most populous cities which contribute about 43% to the country’s gross domestic product, would lead property price growth in 2020.”

Gold prices could drop to support at $1,456, the candlestick pattern on the daily chart indicates. On Thursday, the yellow metal closed below $1,466 –

Gold's daily chart shows a bearish Doji reversal. The yellow metal risks falling to support at $1,456.Gold prices could drop to support at $1,456, the candlestick pattern on the daily chart indicates. On Thursday, the yellow metal closed below $1,466 – the low of the Wednesday's Doji candle – confirming a bearish reversal. Put simply, the corrective bounce from the Nov. 12 low of $1,445 has ended and the bears have regained control. Prices, therefore, look set to test support at $1,456 (Nov. 18 low). Supporting the bearish case is the below-50 reading on the 14-day relative strength index (RSI). The ascending trendline breakdown on the hourly chart also indicates the path of least resistance is to the downside. As noted earlier this week, the gold market sentiment is still quite bearish. On the higher side, Wednesday's Doji candle high of $1,479 is the level to beat for the bulls. Daily chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

USD/CAD remains under pressure following its pullback from six-week-high. The quote takes rounds to 1.3280 by the press time of the Asian session on Friday.

USD/CAD extends previous declines amid WTI strength, ignores a lack of trade news.Canadian Retail Sales, US PMI and consumer sentiment data occupy economic calendar.Trade/political developments surrounding the US and China will also be the key.USD/CAD remains under pressure following its pullback from six-week-high. The quote takes rounds to 1.3280 by the press time of the Asian session on Friday. While pessimism concerning the phase one trade deal between the United States (US) and China has been downplaying trade-exposed currencies off-late, the Loonie pair recently benefited from the oil prices uptick to the two month high. The WTI declines could be attributed to geopolitical tension in Iran and a likely extension of global production cuts. Recent news from Global Times that China has just revised up its 2018 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2.1%. Also exerting downside pressure on the prices was hawkish comments from the Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Stephen Poloz. "Poloz said the economy is in a good place and described monetary policy as "about right." However, the Bank continues to monitor for signs of spillovers and we do not think they will hesitate to act should the outlook deteriorate further," says TD Securities. The US-China trade stalemate continues with the latest news suggesting the US may delay December 15 tariff high while Beijing still has the Trump administration diplomats on their invitation list. Further, the US Navy reported two ships rounded in the South China Sea, which in turn could push the dragon nation towards other rounds of warnings. The previous one was targeting the US House of Representative’s passage of Hong Kong Bill. September month Canadian Retail Sales will be the first to entertain momentum traders during the US session whereas the US Markit Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), followed by Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, for November will play their roles afterward. During the meantime, US-China trade/political headlines could keep the driver's seat. While US activity numbers are expected to flash upbeat readings, Canadian data could soften. “Retail sales will round out the week's data flow, with TD and the wider market looking for a 0.3% decline in September. Motor vehicles will weigh on the headline print after a pullback in auto sales, leaving the ex-autos measure down just 0.1%, while volumes should see a more substantial decline owing to higher consumer goods prices. This would still leave retail volumes up ~1% (annualized) for Q3, a slight pickup from the 0.4% increase in Q2 which contributed to the weakest quarter of household consumption since 2012,” says TD Securities. Technical Analysis With the five-month-old descending resistance line limiting near-term upside around 1.3330, the quote is likely declining towards 1.3200 and short-term rising trend line, at 1.3180.  

More comments are crossing the wires from the Japanese Economy Minister Nishimura, as he speaks on Friday at a news conference. Japan’s exports and pr

More comments are crossing the wires from the Japanese Economy Minister Nishimura, as he speaks on Friday at a news conference. Japan’s exports and production were showing prolonged weakness because of a slowdown in overseas economies. Want to keep a close watch on the impact of weakness in overseas economies on the employment, income and investment situation. Last hour, he said that the global growth as a whole remained in a gradual recovery when asked about a lower growth forecast for 2020 released by the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development on Thursday. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair trades flatlined around 108.70 region, as the anti-risk Yen stands resilient to a risk-friendly market environment. S&P 500 futures are up 0.17% while Treasury yields and Asian equities eke out moderate gains. 

NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6406 within range of 0.6398 and 0.6408. The pair was 15 pips over 24 hours, around 0.6400 overnight is unlikely to b

Main theme sticks with trade wars, yet headlines are conflicting. NZD/USD flat on the day and likely into the weekend; The pair was 15 pips over 24 hours, around 0.6400 overnight.NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6406 within range of 0.6398 and 0.6408. The pair was 15 pips over 24 hours, around 0.6400 overnight is unlikely to be a play into the end of the week considering the lack of scheduled events left on the calendar.  Indeed, the main theme stays with trade wars, but the mixed and conflicting headlines are not mounting to any meaningful price action at this juncture. Overnight, the main headline came from the South China Morning Post, in an article entitled, "China watching Donald Trump’s response to US Hong Kong bill as it threatens to become new barrier to trade deal," and bullet points as follows:  One source says Beijing may decide to ‘fight and talk alternatively’ and is now closely monitoring the US president’s next move following the vote by Congress China reacted angrily to the proposals, accusing Washington of interfering in its internal affairs, and may feel obliged to respond. Looking ahead: The Reserve Bank will be releasing its six-monthly Financial Stability Report (FSR) next Wednesday. analysts at Westpac do not expect it to include any changes to policy settings: First, we note that the RBNZ will be announcing its final decisions on bank capital requirements on 5 December. It will probably steer clear of commenting on the outcomes ahead of that announcement. Instead, the main point of interest in the FSR will be around any changes to the loan-to-value ratio (LVRs) restrictions on mortgage lending. These have been loosened twice so far, in November 2017 and 2018. Market opinion is split as to whether the RBNZ will loosen them further this time. Our view that there will be no change. NZD/USD levels:  

AUD/JPY is reporting marginal gains at press time, having defended key support for a third straight day on Thursday. The currency pair is currently tr

AUD/JPY is attempting gains amid the uptick in the S&P 500 futures. Big gains may remain elusive on trade optimism and pessimism seesaw.AUD/JPY is reporting marginal gains at press time, having defended key support for a third straight day on Thursday. The currency pair is currently trading at 73.83, representing a 0.15% gain on the day. The bid tone around the anti-risk Japanese Yen has likely weakened, possibly due to the uptick in the US index futures. Currently, the S&P 500 futures are adding 0.15% on the day. China's commerce ministry on Thursday dismissed reports stating that the trade talks between the US and China are in trouble and reiterated that the world's second-largest economy will work with the US side on the basis of equality and mutual respect in addressing the core concerns. Even so, the US equity markets dipped Thursday. For instance, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.20%. The risk sentiment, however, is looking to stabilize in Asia. The AUD/JPY pair may extend gains if the risk reset gathers pace.   That said, investors may be wary of initiating bullish bets on stocks, courtesy of optimism and pessimism seesaw. Both sides have a history of mentioning the change of interim deal only to backtrack in the same sentence. Therefore, big gains in AUD/JPY look unlikely - more so, due to the downbeat Aussie PMI released earlier today. The headline Manufacturing PMI came in above 49.8 forecasts to 49.9 but slipped beneath 50.1 prior while Services PMI declined to 49.5 versus 53.5 expected and 50.1 earlier. Technical levels The 100-day MA, currently at 73.59, has been restricting downside since Nov. 19. Therefore, a break below that level, if confirmed, could embolden sellers, leading to a quick drop to 73.00.  

China Stats Bureau Revises 2018 GDP Higher By 2.1%. Key note: Revision Will Not Have Any Major Impact On 2019 GDP Growth More to come...

China Stats Bureau Revises 2018 GDP Higher By 2.1%. Key note: Revision Will Not Have Any Major Impact On 2019 GDP Growth More to come...

In the view of Goldman Sachs’ Australia Chief Economist, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut Is likely but the central bank will refrain from

In the view of Goldman Sachs’ Australia Chief Economist, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut Is likely but the central bank will refrain from rolling out a quantitative easing (QE) program. Key Quotes: “Expect a material pick-up in aggregate private demand, which will more than make up for a tapering off of public demand. The recent turnaround in dwelling prices to help housing-related consumption growth rebound. Moderate lift in mining investment. RBA to cut another 25sps (take the cash rate to 0.5%). Market talk of QE will persist but it’s unlikely at least next year.”

USD/IDR offers no major moves while trading below key resistances. The quote seesaws near 14,095 by the press time of early Friday.

USD/IDR stays below near-term key resistances.23.6% of Fibonacci retracement acts as immediate support.Mid-August tops gain bull’s attention on the successful breakout.USD/IDR offers no major moves while trading below key resistances. The quote seesaws near 14,095 by the press time of early Friday. Given the pair’s sustained trading below 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 14,165 and a descending trend line since late-August, prices are likely to extend the downpour. In doing so, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of August-September declines, at 14,045, can offer immediate support ahead of multiple lows near 13,975. Though, lows marked in early-August and also in September also strong support around 13,880. Meanwhile, pair’s sustained a break of 14,190, comprising the aforementioned resistance line, could trigger fresh rise towards 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 14,315 whereas mid-August tops close to 14,365 could challenge buyers then after. Should there be further upside beyond 14,365, the 14,415 level can offer an intermediate halt during the rise to August month top of 14,583. USD/IDR daily chart Trend: Bearish  

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0306 versus Thursday's fix at

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0306 versus Thursday's fix at 7.0217.

WTI buyers cheer the latest price positive sentiment at the OPEC+ and geopolitical tension concerning Iran amid a lack of major catalysts on early Friday.

WTI is trading firmer around the highest since late-September.Receding calls of a stop in OPEC+ production cuts, geopolitical tension surrounding Iran have recently been making rounds.Clarity over the US-China trade deal required, activity numbers from the major economies are also the key.WTI buyers cheer the latest price positive sentiment at the OPEC+ and geopolitical tension concerning Iran amid a lack of major catalysts on early Friday. That said, the black gold takes the bids to $58.30, near the recently flashed two-month high of $58.70, by the press time. Russia’s President’s comments to respect commitment to the OPEC+ output reduction seems to have pleased the oil traders off-late. Even so, Reuters said that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, popularly known as OPEC+, has no plans to deepen current oil output cuts during the December meeting. On the geopolitical front, Iran’s official announcement to have tamed the latest protests, which led to national internet outage, seems to remain under doubt. Also, news that the Houthi rebels have gunned down the Saudi coalition F-15 provided additional strength to the energy benchmark. Elsewhere, the US-China trade sentiment remains sluggish after the US Congress passed Hong Kong bill. Though, the latest signs that the Trump administration may delay December tariff hikes, coupled with Beijing’s invitation for further trade negotiations, keep buyers hopeful. Market players are now looking for fresh clues to extend the latest run-up. In doing so, trade headlines and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) numbers form the Eurozone, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US) will be important to watch. Further, a weekly release of the Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count, 674 prior, will also gain investor attention. Technical Analysis Prices need to close beyond 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of September-October downside, at $58.55, to aim for September 19 high of $59.45 and $60.00. During the pullback, the recent lows near $54.90 and $53.80/75 can become sellers’ favorites.  

Japan economic minister has stated that they have to continue paying attention to the employment and income situation. Additional comments: The global

Japan economic minister has stated that they have to continue paying attention to the employment and income situation. Additional comments: The global economy as a whole remains in a global recovery More to come...

China's offshore Yuan (CNH) exchange rate could gain altitude as the USD/CNH's 4-hour chart shows the pair has formed a bearish pattern. The bounce fr

USD/CNH's 4-hour chart shows a rising wedge pattern. A breakdown would imply a bearish reversal and open the doors for 6.95.China's offshore Yuan (CNH) exchange rate could gain altitude as the USD/CNH's 4-hour chart shows the pair has formed a bearish pattern. The bounce from recent lows near 6.95 has taken the shape of a rising wedge, which comprises of trendlines connecting higher lows and higher highs. The trendlines, however, are converging – a sign of buyer exhaustion. As a result, a drop below the lower trendline (rising wedge breakdown) is considered a bearish reversal pattern. Currently, the pair is trading around the rising wedge support at 7.03. A breakdown, if confirmed, would open the doors for a retest of a recent low of 6.95. On the way lower, the pair may find support at 7.00. 4-hour chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

Reuters reports that President Donald Trump wants an impeachment trial to go forward in the U.S. Senate: Trump wants an impeachment trial to go forwar

Reuters reports that President Donald Trump wants an impeachment trial to go forward in the U.S. Senate: Trump wants an impeachment trial to go forward in the U.S. Senate because he would receive due process there and he expects Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden would be among the witnesses, a White House spokesman said on Thursday. "President Trump wants to have a trial in the Senate because it’s clearly the only chamber where he can expect fairness and receive due process under the Constitution," spokesman Hogan Gidley said in a statement. "We would expect to finally hear from witnesses who actually witnessed, and possibly participated in corruption - like Adam Schiff, Joe Biden, Hunter Biden, and the so-called Whistleblower, to name a few," Gidley said, referring to House of Representatives Intelligence Committee Chairman Schiff, who is leading an impeachment inquiry into Trump. FX implications:  Thursday marked the fifth day of public hearings in the House's impeachment enquiry into President Donald Trump and the White House has continued to lash out at the House's impeachment inquiry, calling on Democrats to "stop these illegitimate sham hearings immediately." Indeed, markets are of the mind that there will be no impeachment, but never theless, the saga contued and the yen will be the major beneficary at times of uncertainty.       

At the time of writing, USD/JPY is flat around 108.60 trading ina narrow 10-pip range following a mixed session overnight for financial markets. where

USD/JPY maintains a bullish bias above the 50-DMA.Trade war headlines were mixed, making for a slightly firmer dollar while US stocks sunk.At the time of writing, USD/JPY is flat around 108.60 trading ina narrow 10-pip range following a mixed session overnight for financial markets. where USD/JPY ranged between 108.46 and 108.70. The main headline came from the South China Morning Post, in an article entitled, "China watching Donald Trump’s response to US Hong Kong bill as it threatens to become new barrier to trade deal," and bullet points as follows: One source says Beijing may decide to ‘fight and talk alternatively’ and is now closely monitoring the US president’s next move following the vote by Congress; China reacted angrily to the proposals, accusing Washington of interfering in its internal affairs, and may feel obliged to respond. Subsequently, the dollar floated a little higher while the US 2-year Treasury yields rebounded off 1.55% to 1.60%. The 10-year yields climbed from 1.71% to 1.78%. Markets are pricing a terminal funds rate of 1.20% (vs 1.63% currently). US stocks closed modestly lower with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, DJIA, losing 54.8 points, or 0.2%, to 27,766.29 while the S&P 500 dropped back 4.92 points, or 0.2%, to 3,103.54. The Nasdaq Composite index fell 20.52 points, or 0.2%, to 8,506.21 having closed at its highest levels at the start of the week Japan October CPI  The Japan October Consumer Price Index was expected to tick up fractionally, to 0.3% YoY overall, 0.6% YoY ex-fresh food & energy. The data arrived as follows: Japan CPI (Y/Y) Oct 0.2% (est 0.3%; prev 0.2%) - Japan CPI Ex. Fresh Food (Y/Y) Oct 0.4% (est 0.4%; prev 0.3%) -Japan CPI Ex. Fresh Food And Energy (Y/Y) Oct 0.7% (est 0.6%; prev 0.5%). Full report The consumer price index for Japan in October 2019 was 102.2 (2015=100), up 0.2% over the year before seasonal adjustment, and the same level as the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis. USD/JPY levels Chief analyst at FXStreet, Valeria Bednarik, explained that the technical perspective remains neutral in the 4-hour chart, with flat indicators, while the spot consolidates below the 100-period SMA but above the 20- and 200-period ones: "In the daily chart, the perspective has improved slightly but remains overall neutral. As mentioned in previous updates, a break below 107.70 (100-day SMA) or above 108.95 (200-day SMA) could propel a decisive move for the pair."

EUR/USD could face strong selling pressure below key support of 1.1052. The pair created a bearish hammer on Wednesday. That candlestick pattern is wi

EUR/USD's daily chart shows the pair is operating on slippery grounds. A break below 1.1052 looks likely and will likely invite stronger selling pressures. EUR/USD could face strong selling pressure below key support of 1.1052. The pair created a bearish hammer on Wednesday. That candlestick pattern is widely considered an early warning of an impending bearish reversal. The follow-through was bearish on Thursday – the pair clocked a high of 1.1097 before ending the day on a negative note at 1.1058, forming a red candle with a long upper wick. However, the pair managed to avoid a close below 1.1052 – the low of the Wednesday's bearish hammer. Traders usually wait for confirmation of trend change in the form of a break below the hammer candle's low. Hence, 1.1052 is a key level. A break below that will likely yield a quick drop to 1.1030. The pair will likely find acceptance below 1.1052, as the long upper wick attached to Thursday's candle shows a "sell on rise" mentality. The pair is currently trading at 1.1065, representing marginal gains on the day. Daily chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

Bearish candlestick pattern doubts the GBP/USD pair’s latest recovery as the cable takes the bids to 1.2920 during Friday’s Asian session.

Bearish candlestick formation on daily chart keeps sellers’ watch over GBP/USD despite the recent pullback.21-day SMA acts as the key to a monthly low.Bearish candlestick pattern doubts the GBP/USD pair’s latest recovery as the cable takes the bids to 1.2920 during Friday’s Asian session. Considering the bearish pin bar on the daily (D1) chart, prices are likely to liquidate the recent upside momentum unless breaking the latest high of 1.2986. In doing so, 1.3000 and the previous month high near 1.3013 will be on the short-term buyers’ radar whereas May month top close to 1.3180 will lure the bulls afterward. On the downside, sellers can target the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 1.2882 as immediate support ahead of watching over the monthly bottom surrounding 1.2770. Should bearish signals from the 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) stay intact past-1.2770, October 11 high close to 1.2710 will return to the charts. GBP/USD daily chart Trend: Downside expected  

Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.6 below forecasts (48.7) in November

Following its first negative daily closing in the week, Gold prices cling to 100-day EMA while flashing $1,465 as a quote during Friday’s Asian session.

Gold awaits direction after its first daily negative closing in the week.Headlines concerning the US-China trade relations have been mixed.The US “Freedom of Navigation” and another funding bill to avoid shutdown recently occupied headlines.Following its first negative daily closing in the week, Gold prices cling to 100-day EMA while flashing $1,465 as a quote during Friday’s Asian session. Despite challenges to the US-China trade deal and doubts over the global economy, the yellow metal recently dropped as the US dollar (USD) managed to lure risk-averse traders. Trade angst intensified after the United States (US) Congress passed the Hong Kong bill. Though, recent signs have been positive with Beijing’s invitation to the US trade negotiators staying intact and expectations that the US may delay December 15 tariff hike. Elsewhere, the US President Donald Trump recently signed a bill to avoid another Government shutdown till December 20, which in turn helps the risk-tone. On the contrary, Reuters’ news that the US Navy carried out operations in the South China Sea, marked as “Freedom of Navigation” by the official quoted, might push Beijing towards another harsh statement. Further, a report by the German Finance Ministry recently cast doubts on the global economic momentum. Even so, the US 10-year treasury yields stay mostly unchanged around 1.77% while the S&P 500 Futures also follows the suit while taking rounds to 3,103. Although trade political headlines will keep markets entertained, activity numbers from the leading global economies will offer intermediate moves on Friday. Technical Analysis While sustained trading below 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of $1,464 becomes necessary for bears to target monthly low near $1,445/46, the bullion’s near-term upside has been capped multiple times around 1,479/80 that holds the key to $1,500.  

US Pres Trump's Pick For The Fed, Judy Shelton, Said To Have Cast Doubt On The Independence Of The Central Bank More to come...

US Pres Trump's Pick For The Fed, Judy Shelton, Said To Have Cast Doubt On The Independence Of The Central Bank More to come... 

EUR/JPY has morphed into a sideways drift along the support of the 50-day moving average while hugging the 21-day moving average. In early trade, the

Price hugs the 21-DMA as investors look to Sino/US trade deal headlines for impetus.Beijing may decide to ‘fight and talk alternatively’ and is now closely monitoring the US president’s next move following the vote by Congress - SCMPEUR/JPY has morphed into a sideways drift along the support of the 50-day moving average while hugging the 21-day moving average. In early trade, the cross has stuck to a narrow range of between 120.06 and 120.16 while markets await any additional bombshell trade headlines in the absence of any core economic data other than today's Japanese Consumer Price Index which arrived as follows:Japan CPI (YoY) Oct 0.2% (est 0.3%; prev 0.2%)EUR/JPY is a cross that correlates to the performance in global equities, for the most trading in tandem with price action with the major benchmarks. Overnight, US markets were continuing to bleed out preventing an upside correction in the cross. As ever, the markets are fixated on trade-deal developments between the US and China, monitoring the ongoing conflicting headlines rolling out one after the other through the various media sources.  The bigger picture which markets are rolling with appears to indicate that a deal is still some way off from being a possibility at this juncture which is weighing on risk-sentiment and the cross – The main headline came from the South China Morning Post, in an article entitled, "China watching Donald Trump’s response to US Hong Kong bill as it threatens to become new barrier to trade deal," and bullet points as follows:  One source says Beijing may decide to ‘fight and talk alternatively’ and is now closely monitoring the US president’s next move following the vote by Congress China reacted angrily to the proposals, accusing Washington of interfering in its internal affairs, and may feel obliged to respond. EUR/JPY levels The cross is hugging the 21-day moving average and a break higher will likely give shape to an upside bias targetting the 200-DMA located at the 122 handle while meets a 50% Fibonacci retracement target of the mid-March highs to YTD lows. However, on the flip-side, a break below the cluster of the 21 and 50 DMAs opens risk to the Oct lows of 117.07  

USD/INR remains below near-term resistance line while still managing to trade beyond 50-day EMA.

USD/INR stays below the one-week-old falling trend line.50-bar EMA has been limiting the pair’s downside since November 07.The month-start top will follow the breakdown.USD/INR remains below near-term resistance line while still managing to trade beyond 50-day EMA. That said, the quote takes rounds to 71.75 by the early Asian session on Friday. While an upside clearance of a one-week-old falling trend line, at 72.00, will trigger fresh run-up to the monthly top surrounding 72.38. pair’s declines below 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 71.72 can drag prices to the November 01 high near 71.30. Additionally, the September month high near 72.65 and the 70.37/36 area, including lows marked on August 08 and also in September, could entertain traders during the pair’s break of either 72.38 or 71.30 respectively. It should also be noted that the 14-bar Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been under pressure off-late, which in turn favors sellers more than otherwise. USD/INR 4-Hour chart Trend: Sideways  

Japan October CPI was expected to tick up fractionally, to 0.3% YoY overall, 0.6% YoY ex-fresh food & energy. The data arrived as follows: Japan CPI (

Japan October CPI was expected to tick up fractionally, to 0.3% YoY overall, 0.6% YoY ex-fresh food & energy. The data arrived as follows: Japan CPI (Y/Y) Oct 0.2% (est 0.3%; prev 0.2%) -Japan CPI Ex. Fresh Food (Y/Y) Oct 0.4% (est 0.4%; prev 0.3%) -Japan CPI Ex. Fresh Food And Energy (Y/Y) Oct 0.7% (est 0.6%; prev 0.5%). The consumer price index for Japan in October 2019 was 102.2 (2015=100), up 0.2% over the year before seasonal adjustment, and the same level as the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis. There has been no material impact on the yen. More to come...

Japan National CPI ex-Fresh Food (YoY) meets forecasts (0.4%) in October

Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) registered at 0.7% above expectations (0.5%) in October

Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (0.3%) in October: Actual (0.2%)

GBP/JPY carries the previous three-day trend forward while staying negative during the Asian session on Friday.

GBP/JPY struggles for catalysts while staying under pressure for the fourth day in a row.Tories are alleged to have set up a fake Labour manifesto website, their tax plans and comments from a key diplomat were also criticized.Japan CPI and preliminary activity numbers from the UK/Japan will be in the spotlight.GBP/JPY carries the previous three-day trend forward while staying negative during the Asian session on Friday. However, the moves are compressed with mixed signals, also ahead of key data, while the quote seesaws near 140.20. Looking at the political framework in the United Kingdom (UK), one can say the Tories have been under pressure off-late. While allegations over their factcheck handle still being alive, the latest row, as signaled by The Independent, claims that the Conservatives have set up a website that purports to contain the opposition Labour Party’s manifesto, in a bid to trick voters looking for the document. Additionally, the Tory tax plan is criticized on the grounds of favoring the rich while comments from the home secretary Priti Patel, saying that the government was "not to blame" for poverty, were cited by the Labours as another example of the "cruelty" of the Tory government. Even so, the polls keep favoring the Conservatives as the clear winner of the December election. The latest among them from Ipsos MORI shows nearly a 16 point lead of the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson’s party over the Labours. Elsewhere, the market sentiment is compressed by the trade tussle between the United States (US) and China. Although the latest signs are that the US may delay December 15 tariff hike, Beijing awaits US President Donald Trump’s action on the Hong Kong Bill for the “fight and talk”. As a result, the S&P 500 Futures stay around 3,100 while the US 10-year Treasury yields take rounds to 1.78%. Traders will now keep an eye over Japan’s October month Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers and Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI before looking towards the UK’s Manufacturing and Services PMI numbers. Technical Analysis While the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 139.70 acts as immediate support, pair’s upside is restricted by the recent high near 141.60.  

AUD/JPY keeps it low after the Australian Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data while taking rounds to 73.73 during early Friday’s Asian session.

AUD/JPY stays under pressure after downbeat Aussie PMI numbers.The monthly low, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement act as immediate supports.An eight-day-long falling trend line limits nearby upside.AUD/JPY keeps it low after the Australian Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data while taking rounds to 73.73 during early Friday’s Asian session. Australia’s November month Markit/Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI crossed 49.8 forecasts but slipped beneath 50.1 prior. Further, Services PMI declined to 49.5 versus 53.5 expected and 50.1 earlier. As a result, the Composite PMI dropped to 49.5 from 50.0 prior. With this, the quote stays below near-term descending trend line while taking rounds to 50% Fibonacci retracement level of October month upside, at 73.70. While a downtick below 73.30 shifts sellers’ focus to a monthly low of 73.35 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 73.23, multiple bottoms marked during mid-October, near 73.00, can question bears afterward. If prices slip below 73.00, 72.50 and the previous month low around 71.70 will be in the spotlight. Alternatively, an upside clearance of 74.00, comprising the aforementioned resistance line, can propel price to 74.30 horizontal line including October-end low and the recent highs. It should also be noted that the pair’s successful rise above 74.30 enables buyers to keep a tab on 75.00 while aiming for 75.30/40 and the monthly top close to 75.70 afterward. AUD/JPY 4-hour chart Trend: Bearish  

AUD/USD gyrates near the last-Friday levels after Markit/Commonwealth Bank published monthly Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) data.

AUD/USD looks for clear direction around weekly lows.The Aussie PMIs fail to offer any strong hints while mixed signals kept rolling from the US-China trade front.Markets will continue following trade headlines for fresh impulse amid a thin economic calendar during the Asian session.AUD/USD gyrates near the last-Friday levels after Markit/Commonwealth Bank published monthly Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) data. The Aussie pair struggles for direction while trading around 0.6790, amid mixed messages from the US-China trade front by the press time of early Friday morning in Asia. Australia’s November month activity numbers, as published by Markit/Commonwealth Bank, slid into contraction. The headline Manufacturing PMI came in above 49.8 forecasts but slipped beneath 50.1 prior while Services PMI declined to 49.5 versus 53.5 expected and 50.1 earlier. Hopes that the United States (US) may delay December 15 tariff increase on Chinese goods and the Beijing’s invitation to the US trade negotiators, as conveyed by the South China Morning Post (SCMP) and the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), recently tried to restore market sentiment. However, overall doubts concerning the future trade relations between the global superpowers remain as China now awaits US President Donald Trump’s move on the Hong Kong bill after Congress passed the much-criticized bill. That said, the market’s risk tone has recently improved with the US 10-year treasury yields recovering to 1.78% while S&P 500 taking rounds to 3,100. Investors will now concentrate on the trade/political headlines as the economic calendar is light during the Asian session. However, the US PMI numbers and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index could keep the momentum traders happy during the US session. Technical Analysis A confluence of 21 and 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around 0.6825 now, restricts the pair’s near-term upside. On the contrary, a monthly low near 0.6770 could keep sellers entertained.  

Australia Commonwealth Bank Composite PMI dipped from previous 50 to 49.5 in November

Australia Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.9, above forecasts (49.8) in November

Australia Commonwealth Bank Services PMI came in at 49.5, below expectations (53.5) in November

USD/JPY is trading above the 108.00 handle and the 50-day simple moving average (DMA) on the daily time frame. Over the last 2.5 months, the spot has been grad

USD/JPY is entering the Asian session near daily highs. The level to beat for buyers is the 108.73 resistance.  USD/JPY daily chart   USD/JPY is trading above the 108.00 handle and the 50-day simple moving average (DMA) on the daily time frame. Over the last 2.5 months, the spot has been gradually gaining ground.     USD/JPY four-hour chart   USD/JPY is holding above the 108.50 support level and the 200 SMA. A breakout above the 108.73 level can lead to a potential bullish move towards the 108.94/109.05 resistance zone, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.    USD/JPY 30-minute chart   USD/JPY is trading in a range near a flat 200 SMA on the 30-minute chart. Support is seen at the 108.50 and 108.27 levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.    Additional key levels  
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