Forex News Timeline

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures totaled a net position of -3,688 contracts in the week ended August 14th - down 16,376 contracts from the previous week's total of 12,688 net contracts. The net positions turned bearish as the yellow metal fell to $1,160 on Thursday - the lowest level since January 2017. As of writing, gold is trading at $1183.50.

The GBP/JPY pair has created a pennant pattern on the hourly chart.A bull breakout would confirm a short-term bearish-to-bullish trend change and would open the doors to 141.69 (200-hour moving average).The 50-hour and 100-hour MAs have bottomed out and the relative strength index (RSI) has moved above 50.00 (in bullish territory). Hence, the pair could soon find acceptance above the pennant resistance of 140.90.Hourly chartSpot Rate: 140.83 Daily High: 140.97 Daily Low: 140.75 Trend: Bullish above 140.90ResistanceR1: 141.05 (100-hour moving average) R2: 141.69 (10-day MA + 200-hour MA) R3: 142.47 (resistance of Aug. 14 high on the hourly chart)SupportS1: 140.44 (support as per the hourly chart) S2: 140.23 (Aug. 17 low) S3: 139.9 (Aug. 15 low)

Italian Cabinet Undersecretary Giancarlo Giorgetti, while speaking to newspaper II Messaggero over the weekend, said the European Central Bank (ECB) should extend the quantitative easing (QE) program to help protect Italy from financial speculators. He added further that Italy may boost its extra spending request to the European Union after the Genoa bridge disaster.

 USD/JPY is opening in Tokyo for the week with a tendency for the downside.USD/JPY dropped from the territory in the 111.40's midweek with the yen outperforming the G10s.The downside in the dollar was more to do with prospects of Chian and the US in “mapping out talks to try to end their trade standoff.The theory goes that trade wars would be inflationary for the US economy as and when higher import prices filtered through to the wider economy and retail sales.Nikkei does not follow suit of Wall Street, starting out offered in Tokyo.The Nikkie is negative at the start of the week and USD/JPY is opening in Tokyo for the week with a tendency for the downside, albeit following an improved risk sentiment on Wall Street, hindering any momentum in what is otherwise a subdued start to a potentially big week ahead.  USD/JPY dropped from the territory in the 111.40's midweek with the yen outperforming the G10s. This came on the back of a pause in the DXY's rally when US yields were falling on de-risking in EM-FX. at that point, the US 10yr was closing in on H&S neckline (2.81%) when they fell from 2.90% to 2.84% as investors looked for security in an exodus of global equities. Chian and the US in “mapping out talks to try to end their trade standoff - dollar bearishHowever, on Friday, the US 10yr treasury yields ranged sideways inside 2.84% and 2.88%, with investors seeking out a return on their idle capital and the neckline held once again as stocks rallied. Instead, the downside in the dollar was more to do with prospects of Chian and the US in “mapping out talks to try to end their trade standoff ahead of planned meetings between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at multilateral summits in November,” so the WSJ read. The theory goes that trade wars would be inflationary for the US economy as and when higher import prices filtered through to the wider economy and retail sales. Indeed, stocks cheered the headlines, especially when White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, was talking up this week’s meeting between lower level US and China officials making for a busy end to the week, what with the FOMC minutes as well as the Jackson Hole, where indeed the recent strength in the dollar is likely to be a talking point. USD/JPY levelsValeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that in the daily chart, the pair has been pressuring a bullish 100 DMA the whole week while technical indicators are in bearish mode: "The Momentum retreating sharply from its mid-line, but the RSI ranging just above 40, lacking strength, all of which maintains the risk skewed to the downside. Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the pair is also biased lower, as it keeps developing below its 100 and 200 SMA, while the RSI aims lower around 42 and the Momentum heading higher in neutral levels. A steeper decline could be expected on a break below 110.10, now the immediate support."

Analysts at Nomura offered their model's projection for today's fix in USD/CNY.Key Quotes:"Our model1 projects the fix to be 142 pips lower than the previous fix (6.8752 from 6.8894) and 63 pips lower than the previous official spot USD/CNY close of 6.8815. The basket implied change is 76 pips lower than the previous official spot USD/CNY close (6.8739 from 6.8815)."

Analysts at Nomura offered their outlook for the week ahead.Key Quotes:United States | Data preview"We expect a solid gain in July durable goods orders excluding transportation and additional information on trade concerns from the FOMC minutes. Existing home sales (Wednesday): We forecast a modest increase in July existing home sales despite ongoing structural impediments in the market for existing homes. Overall, we expect existing home sales to increase 0.6% m-o-m in July to an annualized pace of 5.41mn after two consecutive months of declines. Pending home sales, which tend to lead existing sales, increased steadily by 0.9% m-o-m in June after a 0.5% decline in May. However, given ongoing challenges in the market for existing homes, including supply shortages and rising mortgage rates, the expected increase in July could prove transitory. FOMC minutes (Wednesday): Changes to the August FOMC statement language were very minimal, mainly reflecting incoming data. However, we expect the minutes to provide additional information on participants’ concerns regarding US trade policy and the possible downside risk from increased tariffs and softening business sentiment. In addition, as the Committee expects to raise rates two more times this year, in September and December, bringing the policy rate closer to the median longer-run estimate of 2.88%, conversations in the minutes regarding the neutral rate and whether policy will need to move into a restrictive stance will be important. Initial jobless claims (Thursday): Initial and continuing claims continued to trend lower in recent weeks. Looking through weekly volatility, low initial and continuing claims appear consistent with continued labor market strength. We continue to expect low readings in the near term. New home sales (Thursday): We expect new home sales to increase 2.0% m-o-m to an annualized pace of 644k in July after a 5.3% decline in June. Single-family permits increased in both June and July while the NAHB’s housing market index for single family homes remained elevated. While monthly readings tend to be volatile, we continue to expect gradual improvement in new home sales this year considering solid economic momentum.  Durable goods orders (Friday): We expect durable goods orders excluding transportation to increase solidly by 0.5% m-o-m in July following a modest 0.2% gain in June. Industrial production for this category increased steadily during the month, up 0.4% m-o-m. In addition, the new orders subindex in the ISM manufacturing survey remained elevated. A solid gain in ex-transportation durable goods orders in July would be consistent with the firm economic momentum seen so far to start off Q3. For overall durable goods orders, we expect a flat reading during July, likely weighed down by a decline in orders for civilian aircraft and parts.Euro area | Data previewEuro area flash PMIs for August and UK budget deficit data will be in focus next week. UK Budget deficit, July (Tuesday): So far in the first three months of the fiscal year (Apr-Jun) the headline deficit (PSNB ex-public sector banks) has been just over GBP5bn narrower than the same period a year ago. The Office for Budget Responsibility is playing this down, arguing that timing effects and revisions could easily scupper the improvement. For this reason we expect a smaller improvement in the July budget balance relative to a year ago than has been the case on average over recent months. Euro area PMIs, August flash (Thursday): We expect the euro area composite PMI for August to decrease to 54.1 from 54.3 in July. At the sector level, we expect the regional manufacturing PMI to dip to 54.9 from 55.1 and the services PMI to drop to 54.0 from 54.2. Concerns about the escalation in the world trade dispute should have a negative impact on manufacturing activity. On top of that, the Turkish crisis should also hurt sentiment, given that the exposure of some European banks to Turkish assets is large.  Our forecast for August’s flash PMI reading would be consistent with euro area GDP growth of around 0.4% q-o-q in Q3 2018."

Analysts at ANZ Bank New Zealand Limited argued that the NZD looks to have found a level of support for now.Key Quotes:The NZD looks to have found a level of support for now which is not overly surprising given some short-term technical indicators had reached oversold territory (as they had for many currencies against the USD). With a relatively quiet domestic and international data calendar this week, we suspect further consolidation or even mild strength is likely. However, we maintain a bearish medium-term bias and would be looking to sell rallies towards the 0.6760-80 level.

NZD/USD is currently trading in a narrow start of the week range of between 10 pips with a high of 0.6634 and a low of 0.6623. NZD/USD has been in a correction from 0.6544 and ws able to score a high on Friday of 0.6639 on dollar weakness.The greenback lose ground on a recovery in the Chinese Yuan, despite a 4% decline in the Lira, but was mostly sold off due to poor data and the resumption of trade talks between China and the US which means less inflationary pressures in the US that the Fed might otherwise have to act faster in order to deal with, if indeed higher import prices due to Chinese tariffs made their way through into the wider economy via retail prices - so goes the logic.    There was an improved risk sentiment on Wall Street which leant a hand over to the commodity complex where the Kiwi managed to ride the coattails of.   "Whether anything comes of the talks remains to be seen (and they aren’t until November), but with the kiwi looking oversold on some short-term technical indicators we could see some mild retracement this week," analysts at ANZ argued  who are no longer forecasting that the next move in the OCR will be up. The Reserve Bank is reluctant to hike"The Reserve Bank is reluctant to hike; they made that abundantly clear in the recent Monetary Policy Statement. And we see growth averaging 2½% over the next couple of years; hardly a stall, but considerably softer than the Reserve Bank’s expectation. That combination is not consistent with forecasting rate hikes. We are now forecasting that the OCR will be flat for the foreseeable future. Of course it is not that we literally believe the OCR will never be moved ever again; rather, we no longer believe on balance that the next move will necessarily be upwards. Indeed, given how long it is until a hike could plausibly be on the cards, the balance of risks is, if anything, tilted towards the next move being a cut. But the economy is muddling through for now. We still expect core inflation to rise further in the near term, reflecting previous strength in the economy. But beyond that, the resilience of underlying inflation does not look assured."  NZD/USD levelsSupport 0.6510 Resistance 0.6670Support is seen at 0.6510 while resistance is located at 0.6670. There is an argument for the upside while indicators have resurfaced from out of oversold territory and bulls can target resistance at 0.6670.  0.6860 comes next ahead of 0.6920 as the June high can be had. The 200-month moving average resistance is at 0.7020. However, on the downside, 0.6510/50 guards a run to the 0.6470s and below there, 0.6240 remains as a big level that protecting the double bottom lows at 0.5910 (2004 and 2006 levels). 

AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7310 and is oscillating in a tight range between 0.7309/15 at the start of this week following a better bid performance and end to last week's trade. While there is little to note on the calendar for today, the week ahead opens up with both the FOMC minutes and RBA's minutes on Tuesday, along with RBA's Lower speaking. In fact, the end of the week is going to be an interesting one for the Aussie given that all the FOMC minutes, the Fed Chairman Powell attending his first Jackson Hole symposium and US trade talks will resume after two months of quite around the same time of the week. Meanwhile, the Aussie took some relief on Friday in the easing trade risk sentiment and a pick up in the Chinese Yuan. AUD/USD bounced from 0.7252 to a high of 0.7318 and has left a bullish continuation closing daily stick on the charts. However, the Australian dollar remains vulnerable to TRY risk aversion. However, the August China/US trade talks news has so far taking the spotlight and despite RBA's Lowe saying that a further "moderate" AUD depreciation would be helpful.A better day for the commodity complex"A resumption of Turkish lira weakness (-3.1%) was brushed aside in Friday London/NY trade. US equities remained supported by Q2 earnings and in late trade, a Dow Jones/WSJ story claiming that US and Chinese officials were, “mapping out talks to try to end their trade standoff ahead of planned meetings between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at multilateral summits in November,” analysts at Westpac explained, also noting that this was supported by White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, who talked up this week’s meeting between lower level US and China officials (in contrast to adviser Kudlow’s dismissive comments) and also sounded upbeat on NAFTA negotiations.AUD/USD levelsThe August 14th  doji has so far served a bullish purpose and the price is supported by the prior descending resistance line and correcting higher. However, the fundamentals stack up with the broader technical outlook as the price accelerates down through the weekly channel. Only a sustained break above the 10-D SMA and then a close through 0.7360 could alleviate the near term bearish pressure.Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that in the daily chart, indicators have recovered from oversold readings, maintaining upward slopes but well below their midlines, as the price remains far below bearish moving averages: "Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the technical outlook is more encouraging, as technical indicators remain near overbought readings, as the price moved far above its 20 SMA, which slowly gains upward traction."  

Martin Enlund and Andreas Steno Larsen, analysts at Nordea offered some FX quickies for those of a tactical persuasion.Key Quotes:"EUR/USD: still slightly downwards biased, with resistance on the upside around 1.1448." "EUR/NOK: rising liquidity a seasonal problem for the NOK even as a first rate hike beckons. Shorts should stay away until mid-September. If EUR/NOK reaches 9.80 before mid-September, this would be very attractive levels to re-enter a short from." "EUR/SEK: Swedish politics and weak inflation has paved the way for an upside break-out. We still recommend to buy-on-dips." "EUR/GBP: Sell on rallies above 0.90, as Bank of England doesn’t tolerate a much weaker GBP."

The open this week is subdued, ranges 12 pips at the most in the case of cable.  We are lacking price action catalysts on the calendar, leaving us to look at what has occurred from Friday's close and a browse over the weekend.  Markets found further solace on headlines that the US and China as reported in the WSJ, are 'mapping out talks' and 'to try to end their trade standoff ahead of planned meetings between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at multilateral summits in November, said officials in both nations.'  This news was cheered by Wall Street and the DJIA rose 110.59 points to 25,669.32, with all benchmarks finishing in the green. US yields ranged sideways for the best part of the close, with the 10yr treasury trading inside 2.84% and 2.88%, while 2yr yields moved between 2.60% and 2.62%. The greenback actually lost ground on the US/China optimism, also weighed by poor data in the University of Michigan’s preliminary August consumer sentiment survey falling a larger than expected 2.6pts to 95.3 - its lowest in eleven months.  From the weekend, there was nothing particularly catalytic but there had been a weekend focus on the current key themes in the FX space that all got their share of headlines. EuropeIn Europe, Italy has been a concern and Friday's close was dominated by weakness in the Italian banking sector. Well, just as we see the final day of Greece bailout of which funding formally comes to end on Monday 20th, the  UK's Telegraph had a column on Italy's populist government that is drawing up "a 'Marshall Plan' of up to €80bn to rebuild the country's dilapidated infrastructure after the Genoa bridge collapse, seizing on the politically-charged disaster to smash EU budget rules." The article further writes, "Officials aim to invoke the 'Golden Rule' championed by Britain's Gordon Brown to remove chunks of public investment from the headline budget deficit, a ruse that would make it easier for the radical Five Star-Lega coalition open the floodgates of fiscal stimulus and reflate Italy's stagnant economy." Another concern for investors in that neck of the woods that equally threatens creditors in the EZ is Turkey. However, there seems to be some faint air of optimism on the back of Qatar and Turkey's central banks signing a currency swap agreement to provide liquidity and support for financial stability according to announcements made by Qatar's central bank on Sunday. Moreover, the S&P revised the Turkish sovereign rating to B+ from BB-; (maintains outlook at stable). However, in the German finance ministry monthly report, there is a much different light shed over Turkey. In the report it states that "The economic developments in Turkey present a new, external economic risk," which comes in addition to "The persistent debate about tariffs and the threat of a trade war are choking trade activity." Also for the EZ, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said the European Central Bank is on course to reduce stimulus. In an interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung, he argued that after the latest decisions, a normalisation of monetary policy is foreseeable but that the process will be gradual and it will "take a while".  On Turkey, he said, "the currency crisis in Turkey would have limited impact on German banks" and that "Turkey was number 16 on the list of German trading partners", accounting for just 1% of global economic output.BrexitMeanwhile, and across the channel, the same paper, The Telegraph, reports that EU migrants will be given the right to stay in event of no-deal Brexit amid fears of labour shortages, Cabinet papers revealed. This further cements the reality of how negotiations are steering, weighing on sterling this week - The papers also highlight the fact that much of the UK's no deal planning will rely heavily "on the availability of existing labour" in the event that talks break down, The Telegraph reported.Asia-PacificThere was a dead spot on the US-China trade headlines as much was already revealed on Friday. However, there was some chatter around the RMB where the PBoC is making moves to curb arbitrage funds from shorting RMB with newly implemented policies aim to reduce the amount of overseas yuan circulation. Also from the Pacific, Weekend news stated that North Korea will allow the UN agency to conduct on-site missile safety inspection and North Korea is to permit an on-site inspection - we step closer to world peace.  
 

Analysts at Westpac, in a market wrap, noted that after lukewarm trade in Europe, risk appetite improved in the NY session, with optimism rising over US-China talks, including a possible Xi-Trump summit in November. Key Quotes:"AUD/USD bounced to 0.7315. Today's calendar is light, as it is for much of the week, ahead of the Fed's Jackson Hole conference." "A resumption of Turkish lira weakness (-3.1%) was brushed aside in Friday London/NY trade. US equities remained supported by Q2 earnings and in late trade, a Dow Jones/WSJ story claiming that US and Chinese officials were, “mapping out talks to try to end their trade standoff ahead of planned meetings between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at multilateral summits in November.” This was supported by White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, who talked up this week’s meeting between lower level US and China officials (in contrast to adviser Kudlow’s dismissive comments) and also sounded upbeat on NAFTA negotiations." "The US dollar lost ground on the optimism over trade talks. EUR/USD rose from 1.1380 to 1.1440, GBP/USD +30 pips to 1.2745 early Monday. AUD/USD edged up to 0.7280 in the NY morning, then bounced to 0.7315 on the US-China story. Outperformer NZD/USD starts the week around 0.6640, up 0.8% overall. AUD/NZD ranged sideways between 1.1000 and 1.1040. USD/JPY did not follow risk sentiment higher, edging down -0.3% to 110.55." "The University of Michigan’s preliminary August consumer sentiment survey fell a larger than expected 2.6pts to 95.3 - its lowest in eleven months, but a still historically elevated level of optimism. Less upbeat views on buying big-ticket durable items drove the index lower while negative news recalled on trade tensions continued to trend higher. Canada July CPI was much stronger than expected, up 0.5%mth, 3.0%yr versus expectations for inflation to hold at 2.5%yr. Underlying inflation however was a touch softer than expected, 1.9%yr, so the Bank of Canada should not be too concerned by the highest headline inflation since 2011. Markets place around a 1/3 chance of the BoC hiking to 1.75% on 5 September. USD/CAD responded sharply to the data, sliding from 1.3140/50 to 1.3070. NAFTA headlines also helped CAD."

Analysts at ANZ offered a market wrap.Key Quotes:"Global equities were mixed with treasury yields down a couple of basis points and the USD weaker across the G10. Commodities were up a small amount. European bourses closed within 0.2% of Thursday with a late-day rally erasing most intraday losses. US stocks opened lower, but rose slightly on lighter volumes. Telcos and real estate offset consumer discretionary declines. The preliminary Michigan consumer confidence reading dropped on lower buying intentions due to unfavourable prices. This will be an important theme to monitor. The dollar weakened against all in the G10 with CAD outperforming after stronger CPI was released (3.0% vs. expected unchanged at 2.5%). WTI oil was up 0.7% to USD65.91 and gold climbed 0.9%."Higher prices taking a toll? "The provisional University of Michigan August consumer confidence came in weaker than expected at 95.3 (mkt: 98.0) with current conditions leading declines at 107.8 (last: 114.4) and expectations steady at 87.3 (last: 87.3). Buying conditions for durables fell to the lowest in nearly four years, due mainly to the least favourable perceptions of prices in 10 years. Vehicle buying conditions were also viewed less favourably, with prices being judged the least favourable since 1984. Home prices were judged the least favourably since 2006. Surprisingly, perhaps, the expectation for inflation over 1 year was stable at 2.9% with a tenth uptick in long-term inflation to 2.5%."Canada inflation jumps: "Canada July inflation came in well above expectations at 3.0% y/y (mkt: 2.5%; last: 2.5%), up 0.5% m/m. Energy costs were a big driver, up 14.2% y/y, and a spike in air transportation (28% y/y) also helped. Shelter costs also lifted. With capacity constraints building, the housing market rebounding, jobs plentiful, wage growth rising, investment growth buoyed, terms of trade higher, and NAFTA close to resolution, the Bank of Canada looks set to turn more hawkish."

Analysts at ANZ Bank New Zealand Limited ("ANZ") explained that the US and Canadian economies are performing strongly at present and are generating inflation while for the antipodeans has emerged. Key Quotes:"Some of the factors driving both growth and inflation are perhaps of questionable sustainability, but it is nonetheless quite a different picture from both New Zealand, where near-term growth indicators have turned decidedly wobbly, and Australia, where all eyes are on the housing downturn and the impact it will have on the broader economy." "With a non-trivial chance of OCR cuts now priced into New Zealand markets, but rising cash rates priced in the US, Canada and to a lesser extent, the UK, the NZD remains friendless." "While perhaps set for a bit of a breather after a 7c fall in four months, we are forecasting NZD/USD -4c at 0.62 by year end.
 

In a market wrap: analysts at TD Securities, (TDS), noted that market sentiment improved on Friday on reports that the US and China are working towards a Trump/Xi meeting in November. Key Quotes:"Equities (SPX: 0.4%, TSX: 0.6%) rallied into the weekend while fixed income was mixed.  Treasuries were little changed to outperform Canadian rates, which bear-flattened on a 3bp selloff in 2s on strong CPI data. DXY (-0.5%) posted its largest drop since late July amid a broad selloff. AUD (+0.8%) led G10 FX while CAD (+0.7%) traded higher on CPI and EUR (+0.6%) saw its third consecutive gain to close above 1.14. The calendar is quite over the coming week until Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.What We're Watching in Markets
 
"Trade talk comes back to the fore with the US & China slated to rekindle negotiations next week. Press reports indicate that currency dynamics could also be on the agenda. We are sceptical that much will come out of this but with the US TWI having unwound much of the weakness observed in 2017 in a few short months, it pays to be prudent." "A hot headline CPI print has emboldened the hawks punting for a September BoC hike despite unchanged/stable core inflation measures. USD/CAD's drop remains within the well defined 1.30/32 range, however, and we continue to think that EUR/CAD topside (towards 1.52) may be appealing as we get clarity on activity data and a Poloz appearance at Jackson Hole next week." "USTs will focus on Jackson Hole, but we believe July FOMC minutes could be more interesting. 5s30s should continue flattening, but talk of ending balance sheet runoff could steepen the curve."