Forex نیوز ٹائم لائن

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling exhibits strength above 1.2500 as the Fed’s guidance on interest rates was slightly less hawkish than expected.Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell said he is still confident about a reduction in interest rates this year.The BoE is expected to hold interest rates steady at 5.25% for the straight sixth time at its May 9 meeting.The Pound Sterling (GBP) capitalizes on cheerful market sentiment and holds gains above the crucial resistance of 1.2500 in Thursday’s London session. The GBP/USD pair is slightly down from its previous close of 1.2526, but clings to recent gains. This strength in the Cable is driven by a weaker US Dollar,   which was battered by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) guidance on interest rates, which was less hawkish than feared, after keeping them unchanged for the sixth straight time. The commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell in the press conference after the monetary policy meeting showed that he still sees the central bank pivoting to interest rate cuts this year even though he remains worried over stalling progress in inflation declining to the 2% target. When asked about the Fed’s stance on interest rate cuts, Jerome Powell said that he expects inflation to fall over the course of the year, but that "my confidence in that is lower than it was."  About the inflation outlook, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that price growth  “is still too high," adding that "further progress in bringing it down is not assured and the path forward is uncertain." Apart from the Fed’s less-hawkish outlook, the sharp decline in the pace of balance sheet tapering suggested that the central bank is still leaning towards quantitative easing.  Daily digest market movers: Pound sterling holds gains amid wobbling US Dollar The Pound Sterling climbs comfortably above the psychological resistance of 1.2500 against the US Dollar (USD) amid cheerful market sentiment. Significant gains posted by S&P 500 futures in the European session suggest an improvement in investors’ risk appetite. The appeal for risk-perceived assets improves as investors took the Fed’s monetary policy statement and interest rate guidance from the press conference of Fed Chair Jerome Powell as less hawkish than expected. The indication that the Fed remains tilted towards unwinding quantitative tightening weighed heavily on the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, hovers near crucial support of 105.55 in the European session. Investors should brace for more volatility in the US Dollar as the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and ISM Services PMI report for April are set to be released on Friday. Economists have forecasted that US employers hired 243K job-seekers in April, lower than the prior reading of 303K. The Services PMI is estimated to have increased to 52.0 from the prior reading of 51.4. In the United Kingdom, investors shifted focus to the Bank of England’s interest rate decision, which will be announced on May 9. The BoE is expected to hold interest rates steady at 5.25% for the sixth time in a row. Investors will keenly focus on the inflation outlook and cues about when the BoE will start reducing interest rates. Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling trades sideways above 1.2500The Pound Sterling trades in a narrow range above the crucial support of 1.2500. The GBP/USD pair continues to face pressure near the neckline of the Head and Shoulder pattern. On April 12, the Cable experienced an intense sell-off after breaking below the neckline of the H&S pattern plotted from December 8 low around 1.2500. The long-term outlook of the Cable is uncertain as it struggles to sustain above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.2530. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates within the 40.00 to 60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among market participants. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

FX option expiries for May 2 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0600 990m 1.0670 1.2b 1.0675 881m 1.0700 1.5b 1.0745 969m 1.0750 1.9b 1.0785 1.5b - GBP/USD: GBP amounts      1.2425 340m 1.2575 322m - USD/JPY: USD amounts                      154.00 1.3b 154.50 570m 155.75 671m - USD/CHF: USD amounts      0.9225 1.3b - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6400 1b 0.6450 433m 0.6475 642m 0.6490 726m 0.6550 501m - USD/CAD: USD amounts        1.3740 409m 1.3850 1.2b     - NZD/USD: NZD amounts 0.5960 781m

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Here is what you need to know on Thursday, May 2: The US Dollar (USD) suffered large losses against its major rivals in the late American session on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve's (Fed) statement language and Chairman Jerome Powell's comments turned out to be not as hawkish as feared. Final revisions to HCOB Manufaturing PMIs for Germany and the Eurozone will be featured in the European economic docket. Later in the day, weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs data for the first quarter from the US will be watched closely by market participants. The Fed left the policy rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% as expected. In its policy statement, the Fed acknowledged that there has recently been a lack of further progress toward the 2% inflation target. Regarding the quantitative tightening strategy, the Fed noted that they will slow the decline of the balance sheet by cutting the Treasury redemption cap to $25 billion per month from $60 billion starting June 1. In the post-meeting press conference, Chairman Powell refrained from hinting at the timing of a policy pivot but said that it was unlikely that the next interest rate move would be a hike. "To hike, we'd need to see evidence policy is not sufficiently restrictive -- that's not what we see," he explained. After fluctuating wildly during the press conference, the USD Index turned south and lost over 0.6% on a daily basis on Wednesday. Early Thursday, the index moves up and down in a tight channel above 105.50. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in negative territory slightly above 4.6% and US stock index futures trade modestly higher. US Dollar price this week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  -0.11% -0.17% 0.45% 0.05% -1.82% 0.17% -0.21%EUR0.11%   -0.03% 0.53% 0.16% -1.70% 0.26% -0.07%GBP0.18% 0.05%   0.59% 0.20% -1.63% 0.32% -0.04%CAD-0.45% -0.54% -0.60%   -0.40% -2.23% -0.29% -0.65%AUD-0.05% -0.14% -0.20% 0.40%   -1.83% 0.11% -0.23%JPY1.79% 1.66% 1.60% 2.19% 1.83%   1.92% 1.55%NZD-0.19% -0.26% -0.32% 0.27% -0.12% -1.96%   -0.34%CHF0.19% 0.08% 0.03% 0.62% 0.22% -1.61% 0.34%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).   Toward the end of the American session on Wednesday, USD/JPY fell nearly 400 pips in less than an hour. Although there is no official word yet, market participants see that move as a result of another intervention. After falling all the way to 153.00, USD/JPY recovered during the Asian trading hours and was last seen trading at around 155.50.EUR/USD staged a decisive rebound on Wednesday and erased all of Tuesday's losses. The pair holds steady slightly above 1.0700 in the early European morning on Thursday.GBP/USD spent the majority of the day below 1.2500 on Wednesday but closed above that level, supported by the USD weakness. The pair stays in a consolidation phase at around 1.2520 in the European session. Gold benefited from the selling pressure surrounding the USD and retreating T-bond yields on Wednesday and settled above $2,300. XAU/USD struggles to preserve its bullish momentum and trades in the red slightly below $2,310 early Thursday.  Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Mexican Peso rises as market sentiment lifts following the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. Despite acknowledging inflation remained sticky, the Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell described the need for higher interest rates as “unlikely”. The Fed’s decision to reduce its Treasury holdings at a slower pace was taken by markets as a mildly dovish move, possibly weakening the USD. The Mexican Peso (MXN) trades higher in its key pairs on Thursday as market sentiment gets a lift from a combination of factors, including the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to maintain an easing bias at its policy meeting on Wednesday, and Crude Oil prices hovering close to seven-week lows.  USD/MXN is trading at 16.93, EUR/MXN at 18.16 and GBP/MXN at 21.24, at the time of publication during the European session.  Mexican Peso gains on positive market sentiment The Mexican Peso, which is sensitive to risk trends, is seeing gains across the board as market sentiment stays positive on Thursday. The Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates at their current level despite persistently firm inflation in the US; the fact that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell considered a further rise in borrowing costs as “unlikely”, and the Fed’s decision to reduce its holdings of US Treasuries at a slower pace – a dovish move – were all factors supporting a positive outlook for markets.  Lower Crude Oil prices, with WTI trading in the mid $79s, were a further positive factor for global risk sentiment as they reduce companies’ transportation and energy costs.  Asian stocks markets traded mixed overnight, with the Nikkei closing down 0.19%, the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.26% but Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up by 2.44% and India’s Sensex 0.36% higher, at the time of writing.  Mexican Peso traders now await S&P Global Mexican Manufacturing PMI data for April out at 15:00 GMT for further clues about how well the sector is bearing up under Banxico's restrictive interest-rate regime.

In March, Mexico’s Manufacturing PMI eased down to 52.2 from 52.3 in February but remained in expansive territory (above 50), as it has done since September 2023.  A substantial decline in the metric could increase the chances of the Banxico reducing interest rates more rapidly than previously expected. This in turn would probably lead to a depreciation of the Mexican Peso, since lower interest rates reduce capital inflows. The opposite would be the case for a substantial rise in the PMI. Business Confidence for Mexico is also scheduled for release at 12:00 GMT on Thursday. Previously, the metric stood at 54.3.   Technical Analysis: USD/MXN in sideways short-term trend  USD/MXN extends its short-term sideways trend, oscillating between the parameters of a range with a floor at 16.86 and a ceiling at 17.40.  USD/MXN 4-hour Chart The pair is currently trading close to the range lows.  Given the sideways trend is biased to continue, the next move will probably be an up leg back towards the range highs, however, there are no signs as yet of such a move evolving.  A decisive breakout of the range – either below the floor at 16.86, or the ceiling at 17.40 – would change the directional bias of the pair.  A break below the floor could see further downside to a target at 16.50, followed by the April 9 low at 16.26. On the other side, a break above the top would activate an upside target first at 17.67, piercing a long-term trendline and then possibly reaching a further target at around 18.15.  A decisive break would be one characterized by a longer-than-average green or red daily candlestick that pierces above or below the range high or low, and that closes near its high or low for the period; or three green/red candlesticks in a row that pierce above/below the respective levels. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.  

USD/CHF weakens to 0.9110 following Swiss inflation data on Thursday. The Swiss CPI inflation climbed to 1.4% YoY in April from a rise of 1.0% in March.The Fed has kept its benchmark lending rate steady at a 23-year high since July 2023. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for April will be in the spotlight on Friday. The USD/CHF pair faces some selling pressure on Thursday, supported by the hotter-than-expected Swiss inflation data. The pair currently trades around 0.9110, down 0.48% on the day. Furthermore, the softer US Dollar (USD) came after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) held interest rates at their current levels, adding further downside to the pair. 

The inflation in Switzerland came in hotter than expected in April, according to the Federal Statistical Office of Switzerland on Thursday. The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to 1.4% YoY in April from a rise of 1.0% in March. On a monthly basis, the Swiss CPI figure increased by 0.3% MoM in April, above the market consensus of 0.1%. In response to the data, the Swiss Franc (CHF) attracts some buyers and drags the USD/CHF pair to the 0.9100 support level. 

The US Fed on Wednesday decided to leave its interest rate unchanged as inflation has remained stubbornly high in recent months. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that he doesn’t have a plan to cut interest rates until the Fed has “greater confidence” that price increases are slowing sustainably to its 2% target. During the press conference, Fed’s Powell said that “there has been a lack of further progress.”, adding that interest rates are “restrictive” enough and that it was “unlikely” that the Fed would raise rates again in this cycle. This, in turn, weighs on the Greenback and creates a headwind for the USD/CHF pair. 

Investors will closely monitor the US employment data on Friday. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for April is expected to show 243K job additions in the US economy, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 3.8% in the same period.  USD/CHF Overview Today last price 0.915 Today Daily Change -0.0008 Today Daily Change % -0.09 Today daily open 0.9158   Trends Daily SMA20 0.911 Daily SMA50 0.8975 Daily SMA100 0.8803 Daily SMA200 0.8854   Levels Previous Daily High 0.9225 Previous Daily Low 0.9146 Previous Weekly High 0.9157 Previous Weekly Low 0.9087 Previous Monthly High 0.9195 Previous Monthly Low 0.8998 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.9176 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.9195 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.9127 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.9097 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.9049 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.9206 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.9255 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.9285    

GBP/USD gains ground as technical indicators suggest a momentum shift for the pair.The momentum indicator could confirm a weakening of the bearish bias once it breaks above the centerline.The pair could meet the immediate barrier at the upper boundary of the descending channel around 1.2570 level.GBP/USD extends its gains for the second successive session on Thursday, trading around 1.2530 during the Asian session. The pair consolidates within the descending channel on a daily chart, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) positioning on the 50-level. A further increase will indicate the weakening of a bearish bias. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicates a momentum shift as it is positioned above the signal line but below the centerline. This momentum indicator could confirm the weakening of the bearish bias once it breaks above the centerline. The GBP/USD pair could test the immediate throwback support at the 1.2518 level, followed by the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2504 and the psychological level of 1.2500. A break below this level could exert pressure on the pair to navigate the region around the six-month low of 1.2300, followed by the lower boundary of the descending channel around the level of 1.2240. On the upside, the immediate resistance appears at the upper boundary of the descending channel around the level of 1.2570 followed by the 50% retracement level at 1.2597 level, plotting between the range of 1.2894 and 1.2300. A breakthrough above the latter could support the GBP/USD pair to explore the area around the pullback resistance at the 1.2710 level. GBP/USD: Daily ChartGBP/USD Overview Today last price 1.2535 Today Daily Change 0.0009 Today Daily Change % 0.07 Today daily open 1.2526   Trends Daily SMA20 1.2507 Daily SMA50 1.2618 Daily SMA100 1.2648 Daily SMA200 1.2551   Levels Previous Daily High 1.255 Previous Daily Low 1.2466 Previous Weekly High 1.2542 Previous Weekly Low 1.23 Previous Monthly High 1.2709 Previous Monthly Low 1.23 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2518 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2498 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2479 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2431 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2395 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2562 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2598 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2646    

WTI prices loses momentum near seven-week lows of $79.20 on Thursday.A surprise build in US crude stocks weighs on black gold prices.WTI prices edge lower amid signs of easing Middle East geopolitical tensions.The US employment reports on Friday will be closely watched.Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $79.20 on Thursday. The black gold edges lower to the lowest level in seven weeks due to a surprise build in crude inventories in the United States and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. 

US crude inventories for the week ending April 26 rose by 7.256 million barrels to 460.9 million barrels, compared to a 6.368 million barrel draw in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decrease by 2.3 million barrels, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. This figure registered the highest since June 2023, adding to concerns about a weakening oil demand.

Furthermore, the signs of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drag WTI prices lower. According to Bloomberg, the United States and Saudi Arabia are discussing an agreement that would provide Riyadh security guarantees and possible diplomatic ties with Israel if its government ends the war in Gaza. Nonetheless, the rising geopolitical risks could raise the fear of oil supply disruption in the region and lift the black gold price. 

Oil traders will shift their attention to US employment data for April on Friday for fresh impetus, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings. These events could significantly impact the USD-denominated WTI price. Oil traders will take cues from the data and find trading opportunities around WTI prices.
  WTI US OIL Overview Today last price 79.2 Today Daily Change 0.35 Today Daily Change % 0.44 Today daily open 78.85   Trends Daily SMA20 83.63 Daily SMA50 81.43 Daily SMA100 77.78 Daily SMA200 79.83   Levels Previous Daily High 81.25 Previous Daily Low 78.56 Previous Weekly High 84.18 Previous Weekly Low 80.62 Previous Monthly High 87.12 Previous Monthly Low 80.62 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 79.59 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 80.23 Daily Pivot Point S1 77.86 Daily Pivot Point S2 76.87 Daily Pivot Point S3 75.17 Daily Pivot Point R1 80.54 Daily Pivot Point R2 82.24 Daily Pivot Point R3 83.23  
 

EUR/USD appreciates on improved risk appetite after dovish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.Fed Chair Powell said that it would take longer than previously anticipated to bring inflation down to the 2% target.The Euro may struggle as the recent Eurozone inflation data have bolstered expectations for a potential rate cut by the ECB in June.EUR/USD continues to gain ground on Thursday as the prevailing positive sentiment in the market provides support for risk-sensitive currencies like the Euro. This improved risk appetite could be attributed to dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday. Powell dismissed the likelihood of a further interest rate hike after the Fed decided to maintain interest rates at 5.25%-5.50% in May’s meeting held on Wednesday. The EUR/USD pair inches higher to near 1.0720 during the Asian trading session. According to a Reuters report, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that progress on inflation has recently stalled, suggesting that it would take more time than previously anticipated to bring inflation down to the central bank’s 2% target. Powell also mentioned that if robust hiring persists and inflation remains stagnant, it would justify delaying rate cuts. Traders are likely awaiting weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Productivity, and Factory Orders from the United States (US) on Thursday. These releases will likely provide further insights into the state of the United States (US) economy. From the Eurozone, the Euro could struggle due to a more dovish stance from the European Central Bank compared to the US Federal Reserve. Recent inflation data showed that Eurozone inflation held steady in April, as expected. Additionally, the core inflation fell, strengthening bets for a potential interest rate cut by the ECB in June. Thursday brings the final HCOB Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, with market expectations aligned with the preliminary figures. This is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the Eurozone manufacturing sector. EUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.0718 Today Daily Change 0.0005 Today Daily Change % 0.05 Today daily open 1.0713   Trends Daily SMA20 1.0715 Daily SMA50 1.0799 Daily SMA100 1.0844 Daily SMA200 1.08   Levels Previous Daily High 1.0733 Previous Daily Low 1.065 Previous Weekly High 1.0753 Previous Weekly Low 1.0624 Previous Monthly High 1.0885 Previous Monthly Low 1.0601 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0701 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0681 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0664 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0615 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0581 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0747 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0781 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.083    

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price fails to lure buyers amid a fresh leg up in the US bond yields, modest USD uptick.A positive risk tone also contributes to capping the upside for the safe-haven precious metal.Traders, however, might prefer to wait for the US NFP report before placing aggressive bets.Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's goodish recovery from the $2,282-2,281 region or a nearly four-week low and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Thursday. As was widely anticipated, the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the end of a two-day meeting on Wednesday, though it reiterated that it wants to gain greater confidence that inflation will continue to fall before cutting rates. This, in turn, triggers a fresh leg up in the US Treasury bond yields, which lends some support to the US Dollar (USD) and acts as a headwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.  In the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the progress towards the 2% annual inflation target had largely stalled, though dismissed the prospect of a rate hike. This, along with easing fears about a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, boosts investors' appetite for riskier assets and turns out to be another factor contributing to capping the upside for the safe haven Gold price. That said, the recent repeated failures to find acceptance below the $2,300 mark warrants caution for bearish traders and positioning for further losses ahead of the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is undermined by a combination of factors, though the downside remains cushioned Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned on Wednesday that interest rates will remain high for longer as disinflation has slowed in recent months and acts as a headwind for the Gold price.  The US Treasury bond yields reversed a part of the previous day's post-FOMC slide, helping revive the demand for the US Dollar and contributing to capping the upside for the non-yielding yellow metal.  Meanwhile, the global risk sentiment got a boost after Powell signaled that the next move from the Fed was still likely to be an interest rate cut, which further undermines the safe-haven XAU/USD. This, along with easing geopolitical tensions, suggests that the path of least resistance for the commodity is to the downside, though the lack of selling warrants caution for bearish traders.  Investors might also prefer to move to the sidelines ahead of the release of the closely watched US monthly employment details, popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. In the meantime, Thursday's US economic docket – featuring Challenger Job Cuts, the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Trade Balance data – will be looked upon for short-term trading impetus. Technical Analysis: Gold price could slide further once the 50% Fibo. level support near the $2,280 area is broken decisively From a technical perspective, weakness back below the $2,300 mark now seems to find decent support near the $2,280 level. The latter coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April rally, which, if broken decisively, should pave the way for deeper losses. The Gold price might then accelerate the fall towards the next relevant support near the $2,268-2,265 area en route to the $2,230-2,225 region and the $2,200 round figure. On the flip side, the immediate hurdle is pegged near the $2,335 supply zone ahead of the weekly top, around the $2,352-2,353 area. A sustained strength beyond could lift the Gold price to the $2,371-2,372 resistance en route to the $2,400 round figure and the all-time peak, around the $2,431-2,432 area touched on April 12. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar rises as positive market sentiment favors the risk-sensitive currencies.The Australian Dollar cheered the hawkish sentiment surrounding the RBA despite the weaker Aussie Trade Balance and Building Permits.The US Dollar faced a challenge as Fed Chair Powell dismissed the likelihood of a further rate hike.The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its gains on Thursday despite the weaker-than-expected Trade Balance and Building Permits data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The AUD/USD pair receives support from the prevailing positive market sentiment after dovish remarks from the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday.  The Australian Dollar advances due to the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) maintaining higher interest rates in 2024. The higher-than-expected domestic inflation data released last week has raised expectations that the RBA may delay interest rate cuts. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, remains under pressure following the dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell after the interest rate decision on Wednesday. Powell dismissed the likelihood of a further rate hike, contributing to pressure for the US Dollar (USD). As expected, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to maintain interest rates at 5.25%-5.50% in May’s meeting. Traders are likely awaiting weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Productivity, and Factory Orders from the United States (US) on Thursday. These releases will likely provide further insights into the state of the United States (US) economy. Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar appreciates due to improved risk appetite Australia’s Trade Balance (MoM) posted a surplus of 5,024 million in April, against the market anticipation of an increase to 7,370 million from the previous 7,370 million. Additionally, Australian Building Permits rose by 1.9%, falling short of the expected 3.0% in March. The February’s reading was -1.9%. The ASX 200 Index saw a modest increase on Thursday following the uptick in heavyweight financial firms, recovering some losses recorded Wednesday. This could be attributed to the positive market sentiment after Fed Chair Jerome Powell dismissed the chances of any further rate hike during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) conference on Wednesday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted that progress on inflation has recently stalled, suggesting that it would take more time than previously anticipated before the Fed could confidently expect inflation to approach its 2% target. Powell mentioned that if robust hiring persisted and inflation remained stagnant, it would justify delaying rate cuts. The ADP US Employment Change reported that private businesses added 192,000 workers to their payrolls in April, surpassing the expected increase of 175,000 and 208,000 prior. The ISM US Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in April from March’s 50.3, against the market expectations of a stall. The data indicated a contraction in the US manufacturing sector, failing to sustain the momentum observed in the previous month, which marked the first expansion in 16 months. According to the Financial Review, ANZ predicts the Reserve Bank of Australia will start reducing interest rates in November, spurred by last week's inflation data surpassing expectations. Likewise, Commonwealth Bank, Australia's largest mortgage lender, has revised its forecast for the RBA's first interest rate cut timing, now projecting a single cut in November. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at their current level during the June meeting has risen to 91.0%, climbing from 83.5% a week ago. Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar moves above 0.6500 back into the triangle The Australian Dollar trades around 0.6530 on Thursday. The pair has re-entered the symmetrical triangle pattern. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the 50-level, indicating a bullish bias. The AUD/USD pair might challenge the upper boundary, situated around the level of 0.6580, followed by the psychological level of 0.6600. A breakthrough above this level could lead the pair to explore the region around March’s high of 0.6667. On the downside, the AUD/USD pair could potentially move toward the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6509. A break below the latter could exert pressure on the pair to test the rebound support at the 0.6480 level. AUD/USD: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar price today The table below shows the percentage change of the Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. The Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  0.03% 0.07% 0.03% 0.05% 0.17% 0.08% 0.03%EUR-0.02%   0.04% 0.00% 0.02% 0.13% 0.05% 0.00%GBP-0.07% -0.03%   -0.03% -0.02% 0.10% -0.01% -0.01%CAD-0.03% 0.00% 0.04%   0.01% 0.12% 0.03% 0.00%AUD-0.05% 0.00% 0.02% 0.00%   0.13% 0.02% 0.00%JPY-0.20% -0.16% -0.14% -0.15% -0.16%   -0.14% -0.15%NZD-0.08% -0.03% 0.00% -0.03% -0.02% 0.07%   -0.02%CHF-0.04% 0.00% 0.04% 0.00% 0.02% 0.10% 0.05%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Indian Rupee rebounds on Thursday amid a softer USD. The Fed Chair Powell pushed back against the possibility of rate hikes, exerting selling pressure on the USD. Investors will monitor India’s HSBC Manufacturing PMI for April. Indian Rupee (INR) recovers some lost ground on Thursday amid the weaker US Dollar (USD). The Greenback failed to capitalize after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to maintain the status quo on the rate late Wednesday. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during the press conference that it’s unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike. These comments spark a modest dovish reaction in the markets, which weighs on the Greenback. 

However, the Fed’s cautious stance over future interest rate cuts and higher-for-longer rate narrative might lift the USD. On the one hand, the weakening of the INR might be limited as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) continues to stabilize its currency from the volatility. 

On Thursday, the usual US weekly Initial Jobless Claims and March’s Goods Trade Balance are due. On the Indian front, the HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for April will be released, which is estimated to remain steady at 59.1. The spotlight will turn to the US employment data for April on Friday, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings.  Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee remains firm amid RBI’s InterventionBetween January and March 2023, India's gold demand was 126.3 tonnes, which increased by 8% to 136.6 tonnes this year, according to a World Gold Council report. The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its benchmark short-term borrowing rate in a targeted range between 5.25% and 5.50%, as widely expected.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that progress on inflation has stalled recently, and it would take longer than previously thought before the Fed had confidence that inflation would move toward its 2% target. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in worse than expected, falling to 49.2 in April from March's expansionary reading of 50.3.  The ADP Employment Change showed an increase of 192,000 jobs in April from the upwardly revised March figure of 208,000, beating the 175,000 expected.  The JOLTS Job Openings dropped to 8.488 million in March from 8.813 million in the previous reading, marking the lowest level of job openings reported.Technical analysis: USD/INR maintains a constructive outlook in the longer termThe Indian Rupee trades on a stronger note on the day. However, the bullish outlook of USD/INR remains in place as the pair is forming an ascending triangle and remains above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds in bullish territory around 55, supporting the buyers for the time being. 

The first upside barrier will emerge near a high of April 15 at 83.50. Further north, the next hurdle is located near the upper boundary of ascending triangles of 83.71, followed by the 84.00 psychological round mark. 

On the downside, the lower limit of the ascending triangle and the 100-day EMA at 83.15 act as an initial support level for USD/INR. A breach of this level will see a drop to a low of January 15 at 82.78 and finally a low of March 11 at 82.65. US Dollar price todayThe table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  0.04% 0.06% 0.03% 0.07% 0.26% 0.11% 0.04%EUR-0.03%   0.03% 0.00% 0.04% 0.21% 0.08% 0.01%GBP-0.08% -0.03%   -0.03% 0.00% 0.18% 0.03% 0.00%CAD-0.03% 0.00% 0.04%   0.03% 0.21% 0.07% 0.01%AUD-0.07% -0.02% 0.00% -0.02%   0.16% 0.03% -0.01%JPY-0.23% -0.19% -0.17% -0.18% -0.18%   -0.13% -0.18%NZD-0.12% -0.06% -0.04% -0.07% -0.04% 0.08%   -0.04%CHF-0.05% -0.01% 0.02% -0.01% 0.03% 0.14% 0.07%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote). Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Japanese Yen rallied on Wednesday amid speculations of another intervention by authorities. The momentum, however, runs out of steam on the back of the divergent BoJ-Fed policy outlooks.Traders now look to the second-tier US data for some impetus ahead of the NFP report on Friday.The Japanese Yen (JPY) surged to over a two-week high against its American counterpart on Wednesday amid speculations that Japan's financial authorities intervened again, for a second time this week, to prop up the domestic currency. This came on the back of the post-FOMC US Dollar (USD) selling and dragged the USD/JPY pair to the 153.00 mark. The JPY, however, trimmed a part of its strong intraday gains and continued losing ground through the Asian session on Thursday, pushing the currency pair back above the 156.00 round figure.  The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to keep interest rates near zero and indication that it will continue buying government bonds in line with the guidance made in March marks a big divergence in comparison to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish signal. In fact, the US central bank said on Wednesday that it wants to gain greater confidence that inflation will continue to fall before cutting rates. This, along with the emergence of some USD buying, lends support to the USD/JPY pair amid a positive risk tone, which undermines the safe-haven JPY.  Traders now look to the US economic docket, featuring the release of Challenger Job Cuts, the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Trade Balance data for some impetus later during the early North American session. The focus, however, will remain glued to the closely-watched US monthly employment details, popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.  Daily Digest Market Movers: Japanese Yen fails to capitalize on Wednesday’s possible intervention-led strong move up A likely Japanese Yen buying directed by Japan's Ministry of Finance triggered a steep USD/JPY decline to over a two-week low during the late US session on Wednesday, though the momentum falters near the 153.00 mark.
Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda declined to confirm if authorities had stepped into the FX market to support the domestic currency and said that they will disclose intervention data at the end of this month. 
Minutes of the Bank of Japan March policy meeting revealed this Thursday that the central bank must continue to support the economy from a financial standpoint to achieve sustained, domestic demand-driven recovery. 
The lack of change in forward guidance by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, signaling that it is leaning toward reductions in borrowing costs later this year, was perceived as dovish and led to the overnight US Dollar slump. 
In the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that inflation has eased substantially over the past year but it's still too high and that further progress on inflation is not assured as the path is uncertain. 
Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in 35 basis points of easing this year, up from 29 bps before the statement, which is still less than three 25 bps cuts projected by the US central bank and helps revive the USD demand.
A positive tone around the US equity markets further contributes to driving flows away from the safe-haven JPY and provides an additional boost to the USD/JPY pair on Thursday ahead of the second-tier US economic releases.
The market attention, meanwhile, remains on the US jobs report on Friday, which will now play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the currency pair. Technical Analysis: USD/JPY needs to break through the 50% Fibo. hurdle, around 156.50 for bulls to seize intraday control From a technical perspective, the overnight bounce from the 200-period Simple Moving Average on the 4-hour chart and the subsequent move beyond the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of this week's sharp pullback from a multi-decade high favor bullish traders. That said, mixed oscillators on hourly/daily charts warrant some caution before positioning for any further intraday appreciating move, suggesting that the USD/JPY pair might confront some resistance near the 50% Fibo. level, around the 156.55 region. Some follow-through buying, however, will suggest that the recent corrective slide from the all-time peak has run its course and pave the way for additional gains. On the flip side, weakness back below the 155.70 area could drag the USD/JPY pair back towards the 155.00 psychological mark en route to the 154.50-154.45 support zone. Failure to defend the latter might expose the Asian session low, around the 153.00 round figure, with some intermediate support near the 154.00 mark and the 153.60 region. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/JPY rebounded due to possible positive sentiment in the market after the Fed decided to maintain the current interest rate.The Japanese Yen experienced an increase during the morning hours in New Zealand driven by another possible government intervention.Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a Trade Balance (MoM) with a surplus lower than expected in April.AUD/JPY edges higher on Thursday after paring daily losses. The Japanese Yen (JPY) saw an uptick during the morning in New Zealand driven by another possible government intervention, marking the second occurrence this week. However, it later relinquished its gains following the release of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Board members' insights into the monetary policy outlook during Thursday's session, as documented in the BoJ Minutes from the March meeting. According to Reuters, a member mentioned that the economy's response to a short-term rate increase to approximately 0.1% is expected to be minimal. Several members expressed the belief that long-term rates ought to be primarily determined by market forces. Additionally, a few members suggested that the Bank of Japan should eventually consider decreasing its bond purchasing and scaling down its bond holdings. The Australian Dollar (AUD) receives support, potentially buoyed by the prevailing positive sentiment in the market following the US Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at 5.25%-5.50% during Wednesday's policy meeting. Furthermore, Fed Chair Jerome Powell dismissed the likelihood of a further rate hike, contributing to the positive outlook. Nevertheless, the anticipation of interest rate hikes in Australia later this year remains on the table. Australia’s Trade Balance and Building Permits data showed weaker-than-expected readings, which could contribute to downward pressure on the Australian Dollar. These disappointing readings could dampen the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA)'s stance on maintaining higher interest rates throughout 2024. Daily Digest Market Movers: AUD/JPY gains ground due to positive market sentiment Australia’s Trade Balance (MoM) showed a surplus of 5,024 million in April. The market was expecting an increase to 7,370 million from the previous 7,370 million. The Building Permits released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows the number of permits for new construction projects rose by 1.9%, falling short of the expected 3.0% in March. The previous month’s reading was -1.9%. On Thursday, the ASX 200 Index saw a modest increase following the uptick were heavyweight financial firms. This benchmark index recovers some of the losses from the previous session, following the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates. On Wednesday, the AiG Australian Industry Index declined in April indicating prevailing contractionary conditions for the past twenty-four months. Additionally, the seasonally adjusted Australian Retail Sales released on Tuesday showed a drop in March, compared to the expected increase and the previous growth. As reported by the Financial Review, ANZ anticipates that the RBA will commence cutting interest rates in November, following last week’s stronger-than-expected inflation data. In a similar vein, Australia's largest mortgage lender, Commonwealth Bank, has adjusted its forecast for the timing of the first interest rate cut by the RBA. They are now projecting only one cut in November. Masato Kanda, Japan's top currency diplomat, refrained from confirming whether Japanese authorities had indeed intervened early Thursday in response to a significant strengthening of the JPY. Kanda mentioned that intervention data will be disclosed at the end of the month. Japan’s Retail Trade increased by 1.2% year-over-year in March, which was lower than the expected increase of 2.5% and the previous increase of 4.7%. The seasonally adjusted Retail Trade (MoM) decreased by 1.2%, against the expected rise of 0.6%. According to Reuters, the Sankei newspaper reported on Tuesday that Japan is considering implementing tax breaks for repatriation of corporate profits into the Yen. This measure may potentially be included in the annual mid-year policy blueprint. Technical Analysis: AUD/JPY rises to near the psychological level of 102.00 The AUD/JPY traded around 102.00 on Thursday, remaining below the lower boundary of a rising wedge pattern on the daily chart. Traders may await clear direction from the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is still above the 50-level. The key support for the AUD/JPY pair is seen at the lower boundary of the ascending channel around the psychological level of 100.00. A break below this level could strengthen the bearish bias and put pressure on the currency cross to navigate the region around April’s low at 97.78. Immediate resistance is observed at the lower boundary of the wedge around the psychological level of 103.00. A rebound back into the ascending wedge could potentially improve the bullish bias and push the AUD/JPY pair toward the psychological level of 105.00, followed by the upper boundary of the wedge. AUD/JPY: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar price today The table below shows the percentage change of the Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. The Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  0.00% 0.03% -0.02% -0.05% 0.25% 0.03% 0.01%EUR0.01%   0.04% -0.01% -0.04% 0.25% 0.04% 0.01%GBP-0.03% -0.03%   -0.04% -0.07% 0.22% -0.01% 0.00%CAD0.02% 0.01% 0.05%   -0.03% 0.26% 0.03% 0.03%AUD0.04% 0.05% 0.07% 0.04%   0.29% 0.06% 0.07%JPY-0.25% -0.27% -0.23% -0.26% -0.31%   -0.24% -0.24%NZD-0.03% -0.02% 0.01% -0.03% -0.07% 0.19%   0.01%CHF-0.01% -0.01% 0.02% -0.02% -0.05% 0.21% 0.02%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate, and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Australia’s trade surplus narrowed to 5,024M MoM in April versus 7,370M expected and 7,280M in the previous reading, according to the latest Aussie foreign trade data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday.

 Further details reveal that Australia's March Goods/Services Exports reprint 0.1% figures on a monthly basis versus -2.2 prior. The nation’s Goods/Services Imports grew 4.2% in April MoM versus 4.8% prior. Market reactionAt the press time, the AUD/USD pair is down 0.08% on the day to trade at 0.6518. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.  

USD/CAD loses ground near 1.3730 on the softer USD on Thursday. The BoC Governor said the central bank is  “getting closer” to rate cuts.The Fed has not changed its key interest rates and expressed more caution than previously about possible interest rate cuts. The USD/CAD pair extends its downside around 1.3730 during the early Asian trading hours. The downtick of the pair is backed by the weaker US Dollar Index (DXY) to 105.75. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its benchmark short-term borrowing rate in a targeted range between 5.25% and 5.50% and expressed more caution than before over future interest rate cuts. Later in the day, the usual US weekly Initial Jobless Claims and March’s Goods Trade Balance are due.

Late Wednesday, Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem reiterated that the Canadian central bank is confident that inflation will continue to decline, adding that the BoC is  “getting closer” to rate cuts. Macklem added that the BoC isn't beholden to following the Federal Reserve's (Fed) playbook as higher rates in Canada are having ‘more traction’ than in the US. 

Traders place more bets that the Bank of Canada (BoC) might cut interest rates in June as Canada's economy weakened in the first quarter of this year. Canada’s GDP grew at a slower pace of 0.2% MoM in February, compared to the previous reading of  0.5%, weaker than the market expectation of 0.3% expansion. Elsewhere, the Canadian Manufacturing PM dropped to 49.4 in April and 49.8 in March, below the market consensus of 50.2, according to S&P Global on Wednesday. 

On the USD’s front, the US Fed kept rates unchanged for a sixth consecutive meeting in the 5.25%–5.50% range, as widely expected by market participants. Fed Chair Powell sounded more cautious than the previous reading, arguing for more patience on the policy front. The USD failed to capitalize following the monetary policy meeting as the bar was pretty high for an uber-hawkish pivot. However, the higher-for-longer rate narrative in the US could provide some support to the USD and cap the downside for USD/CAD. 

  USD/CAD Overview Today last price 1.3729 Today Daily Change -0.0010 Today Daily Change % -0.07 Today daily open 1.3739   Trends Daily SMA20 1.3695 Daily SMA50 1.36 Daily SMA100 1.3505 Daily SMA200 1.3549   Levels Previous Daily High 1.3783 Previous Daily Low 1.3703 Previous Weekly High 1.3753 Previous Weekly Low 1.3635 Previous Monthly High 1.3846 Previous Monthly Low 1.3478 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.3734 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.3753 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.3701 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.3662 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.3621 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.378 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.3822 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.386  

 

AUD/USD gains ground near 0.6525 in Thursday’s early Asian session. The Fed kept its benchmark rate in a targeted range between 5.25%-5.50%, as widely expected.The recent Australia’s March retail sales dampened speculation that the RBA’s next move in interest rates might be up.The AUD/USD pair extends recovery around 0.6525 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The Federal Reserve (Fed) held its interest rates steady at 5.25–5.50% at its meeting on Wednesday, citing a “lack of further progress” in getting inflation back down to its 2% target. The Greenback edges lower after the monetary policy meeting on the Fed's cautious stance on its future trajectory.

The US Fed kept its benchmark short-term borrowing rate in a targeted range between 5.25%-5.50%, as widely expected. During the press conference, Fed Chair Powell emphasized the progress on inflation has stalled recently and it would take longer than previously thought before the Fed had the confidence that inflation would move toward its 2% target. Powell stated that if hiring stayed strong and “inflation is moving sideways,” that “would be a case in which it would be appropriate to hold off on rate cuts.” This, in turn, might boost the US Dollar (USD) and cap the upside of AUD/USD. 

Elsewhere, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in worse than estimated, falling to 49.2 in April from March's expansionary reading of 50.3. Meanwhile, ADP Employment Change showed an increase of 192,000 jobs in April from the upwardly revised March figure of 208,000, beating the 175,000 expected. Finally, the JOLTS Job Openings dropped to 8.488 million in March from 8.813 million in the previous reading, marking the lowest level of job openings reported. 

On the Aussie front, Australia’s March retail sales were weaker than expected, dropping by 0.4% MoM in March from the previous reading of a 0.3% rise. This data dampened recent speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) next move in interest rates might be up. AUD/USD Overview Today last price 0.6529 Today Daily Change 0.0006 Today Daily Change % 0.09 Today daily open 0.6523   Trends Daily SMA20 0.6504 Daily SMA50 0.6532 Daily SMA100 0.6585 Daily SMA200 0.6523   Levels Previous Daily High 0.654 Previous Daily Low 0.6465 Previous Weekly High 0.6554 Previous Weekly Low 0.6414 Previous Monthly High 0.6644 Previous Monthly Low 0.6362 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6512 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6494 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6479 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6435 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6404 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6554 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6584 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6628    

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Board members shared their views on monetary policy outlook on Thursday, per the BoJ Minutes of the March meeting.Key quotes“One member said impact of rise in short-term rate to around 0.1% on economy will likely be limited.”

“Many members shared view long-term rates should basically be set by markets.”

“A few members said the BOJ should at some point in the future reduce bond buying amount, shrink its bond holdings.”

“A few members said BOJ March move is different from the monetary tightening phase experienced in US, Europe.”

“One member said BOJ should slowly but steadily move towards policy normalisation with an eye on economic, price developments.”

“A few members said while not a big risk now, there is chance of overshoot in Japan's inflation.”

“Expects BoJ to continue aiming for achievement of 2% inflation target in stable, sustained manner.”

“Qhile wages, capex showing positive movements, consumption lacking strength, overseas risks exist.”

“The government shares the BoJ's view that positive wage-inflation cycle is emerging.”

“BoJ must continue to support the economy for a financial standpoint to achieve sustained, domestic demenad-drive economic recovery.”Market reactionFollowing the BoJ Minutes, USD/JPY was up 0.81% on the day at 155.85. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan has embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy since 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy of holding down rates has led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. Is the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose policy likely to change soon? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices have led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which has exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. Still, the Bank judges that the sustainable and stable achievement of the 2% target has not yet come in sight, so any sudden change in the current policy looks unlikely.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, who will instruct the BoJ to intervene, when he judges it necessary, declined to confirm if Japanese authorities had stepped into the foreign exchange (FX) market early Thursday following a sharp strengthening of the Yen. Kanda added that they will disclose intervention data at the end of this month. Market reactionAt the time of writing, USD/JPY was trading at 155.67, adding 0.68% on the day. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.  

GBP/USD trades on a stronger note around 1.2535 amid the weaker USD on Thursday. The Fed maintained rates unchanged in a 5.25%–5.50% range, as widely expected. Financial markets expect the Bank of England (BoE) to cut borrowing costs in the June or August meetings. The GBP/USD pair gains traction near 1.2535 on Thursday during the early Asian session. The uptick of the major pair is supported by the sharp decline of the US Dollar (USD) after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) left its interest rate unchanged. 

As widely anticipated, the US central bank kept its benchmark rate in a target range of 5.25%–5.50% at its May meeting on Wednesday, its highest level in more than two decades. The US Fed did not expect it would be appropriate to cut the interest rate until the central bank gain greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably to its 2% target. 

Furthermore, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during the press conference, “I think it’s unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike.” These comments spark a modest dovish reaction in the markets, which weighs on the Greenback and creates a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair. Amidst the persistence of elevated inflation and the robust economy, financial markets see only one rate cut in November, according to the CME FedWatch. The central bank has also announced that it will now reduce its bond portfolio more slowly. The Fed will reduce their monthly holdings in US Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion, starting in June

On the other hand, investors expect the Bank of England (BoE) to cut borrowing costs in the June or August meetings, as BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said he is confident that headline inflation will return to 2% in April. However, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill warned last week that there were greater risks from cutting the interest rate too quickly, rather than too late. His remarks provide some support for the Pound Sterling (GBP). GBP/USD Overview Today last price 1.2534 Today Daily Change 0.0042 Today Daily Change % 0.34 Today daily open 1.2492   Trends Daily SMA20 1.2513 Daily SMA50 1.262 Daily SMA100 1.2649 Daily SMA200 1.2553   Levels Previous Daily High 1.2564 Previous Daily Low 1.249 Previous Weekly High 1.2542 Previous Weekly Low 1.23 Previous Monthly High 1.2709 Previous Monthly Low 1.23 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2518 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2536 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2467 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2442 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2393 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2541 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.259 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2615    

EUR/USD churned after Fed rate hold.Investors pivoting to focus on Friday’s US NFP.Quiet Thursday ahead with mid-tier data.EUR/USD cycled familiar territory on Wednesday after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) held rates as many investors had expected. However, market participants were hoping for further signs of impending rate cuts from the US central bank. At current cut, rate markets are anticipating a first and only rate cut for the year in November.Powell speech: Unlikely that next policy rate move would be a hikeThursday sees final HCOB Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) figures from Europe, with markets expecting the prints to land exactly where preliminary figures had come in. Manufacturing currently comprises less than 24% of the overall European economy. Friday’s US NFP will drive much of the market momentum to close out the trading week, with markets expecting a print of 243K in April versus the previous month’s 303K. Revisions to data will be closely watched as layoffs continue to plague larger sections of the US economy. Investors are also hoping that Average Hourly Earnings MoM in April hold flat at 0.3% as wages continue to be the popular target for broad-market inflation fears. EUR/USD technical outlook EUR/USD has churned in near-term consolidation for six consecutive trading days as the pair grapples with the 1.0700 handle. The 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) provides a key midrange level, with rough upper and lower bounds at 1.0740 and 1.0650. A near-term floor has been priced in near the 1.0600 handle on daily candles, but the pair has struggled on the bearish side of the 200-day EMA near 1.0790. EUR/USD hourly chart EUR/USD daily chart

Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem hit newswires late Wednesday, reiterating that the BoC isn't beholden to following the Federal Reserve's (Fed) playbook as the two central banks grapple with slightly different economic situations. Key highlights BoC is getting close to being able to cut rates. GDP growth is expected to be 1.5% in 2024, 2.0% in 2025 and 2026. Data since January has increased our confidence that inflation will continue to come back down. BoC expected core inflation to continue to ease gradually. Growth in the Canadian economy appears to be picking up. Monetary policy appears to be working. BoC does not have to do whatever the Fed does.

Silver stable at $26.64 after Fed holds rates steady, per Chair Powell's data-driven stance.Technicals: Silver rebounds from $26.27 low, eyes $27.00 resistance.Silver hints at bullish trend; breakout above $27.14 could reinforce this.Bearish shift requires silver below $26.13, targeting lower supports.Silver's price stayed firm at around $26.64 after the Fed decided to hold rates unchanged and Powell’s press conference. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said they would remain data-dependent, decide meeting by meeting, and won’t cut rates until they’re confident that inflation is trending towards its 2% goal. XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook The grey metal dipped below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $26.41, hitting a two-week low of $26.27 before resuming its uptrend. Although Silver reached a daily high of $26.96, buyers lacked the strength to break above the $27.00 figure, which paved the way to retreat to current price levels. The XAG/USD is upward biased despite going through a pullback that sent prices from around $29.79 to $26.27. For sellers to shift the bias to bearish, they would need to push the spot price below the May 5 high at $26.13, which would pave the way toward $26.00 and below. On the flip side, and the most likely scenario, if XAG/USD achieves a daily close at around the current level, a ‘bullish harami’ and a two-candle chart pattern will form. This usually would be bullish for the asset, but buyers must crack the April 30 high at $27.14, before resuming its uptrend. XAG/USD Price Action – Daily ChartXAG/USD Overview Today last price 26.63 Today Daily Change 0.33 Today Daily Change % 1.25 Today daily open 26.3   Trends Daily SMA20 27.68 Daily SMA50 25.55 Daily SMA100 24.35 Daily SMA200 23.8   Levels Previous Daily High 27.14 Previous Daily Low 26.26 Previous Weekly High 28.69 Previous Weekly Low 26.67 Previous Monthly High 29.8 Previous Monthly Low 24.75 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 26.59 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 26.8 Daily Pivot Point S1 25.99 Daily Pivot Point S2 25.68 Daily Pivot Point S3 25.1 Daily Pivot Point R1 26.87 Daily Pivot Point R2 27.45 Daily Pivot Point R3 27.76    

The Fed acknowledged no significant progress towards the 2% inflation goal, maintaining a hawkish stance.Despite challenges, Powell notes restrictive policies have moderated inflation and that risks to dual goals are more balanced.Markets are giving up the hopes of three rate cuts in 2024.The NZD/USD found some momentum after the widely-anticipated Federal Reserve (Fed) decision which announced yet another hold, leaving rates at the 5.25-5.50% range. Powell’s cautious tone and data dependency were taken as dovish by markets which made investors dump the USD. In addition, Powell stated that the bank still needs additional evidence to gain confidence to start cutting rates, noting that inflation’s progress stagnated in the last months. He confirmed that in case data continues to come strong, it would be appropriate to hold the restrictive police for some more time. When the data started to align with the bank’s forecast, he pointed out that he would consider cutting rates. Regarding expectations, markets are giving up hopes of a cut in June and July and are pushing the start of the easing to September or even November. NZD/USD technical analysis On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands in negative territory. The recent readings note an uptick to 44 which shows some light for the bulls but that they remain beneath the positive line. In addition, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram marks flat green bars, indicating a slight positive momentum. NZD/USD daily chart Shifting to the hourly chart display, the RSI shows diverse readings with an overbought condition at 70 followed by a drop to 55. Concurrently, the hourly MACD charts flat green bars, similar to the daily forecast, hinting at prospective positive impulse in the short-term. NZD/USD hourly chart In assessing the wider picture, the NZD/USD is under significant downward pressure as it is currently positioned below the 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Overall, the NZD/USD exhibits a mixed picture. Despite an hourly overbought signal tempering prospective bearish conditions, the key SMAs, coupled with the daily RSI readings, lean towards the bearish side, deprecating the NZD/USD pair. Current conditions suggest that sellers may continue to dominate, particularly as the pair trails below the important SMAs but buyers might make another stride at the 20-day SMA at 0.5950 which could brighten the outlook.   NZD/USD Overview Today last price 0.5926 Today Daily Change 0.0039 Today Daily Change % 0.66 Today daily open 0.5887   Trends Daily SMA20 0.5956 Daily SMA50 0.6036 Daily SMA100 0.6109 Daily SMA200 0.6044   Levels Previous Daily High 0.5982 Previous Daily Low 0.5885 Previous Weekly High 0.597 Previous Weekly Low 0.5886 Previous Monthly High 0.6079 Previous Monthly Low 0.5851 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.5922 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.5945 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.5854 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.5821 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.5757 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.5951 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6015 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6048